Morning Corner 12.1.11

GOLD (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 1626.00
rev= 1880.60; mid= 1753.30

That slight move lower just got vaporized with the CB intervention. Back above SMA(13). Retesting the weekly 3LB mid and 38.2% minor retrace. Shine on my brother, shine on.

COPPER (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
low= 3.152
rev= 4.003; mid= 3.578

This down move for the last four weeks has been almost completely wiped out. But are things any better? It's back above SMA(13) and the 61.8% retrace.

NFP (monthly info)
-no change (below mid)
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 36k
rev= 431k; mid= 224.5k

We're approaching the apex of the triangle. 135k is the high line and 85k is the low line. A break of either will probably say a lot about where we are headed.


BinT said...

Well, Amen, the good thing about lumber is it just gets larger until you cut it. Thanks.

Liquidity or solvency? Suppose the coming months will tell us, now.

Would this make the rating agencies more likely to downgrade US debt earlier..."even the Big 3"?

Anonymous said...

"...But At Least a Handful of Insiders Will Make Out Like Bandits

Jim Quinn writes:

When you see such coordinated action by all the major Central Banks in the world, you know the situation is much worse than you are being told by the ruling oligarchy. The confidence and trust is gone. Every major bank in the world is insolvent, whether it be in the U.S., Europe or China. These Central Banks are owned and controlled by the very banks they are bailing out. They are telling you they have it under control. They do not. They have lost control. The debt is too great and will destroy the economic system of the world.

This is a last ditch effort by those in power to grab the last vestiges of middle class wealth. The stock market will soar today, benefitting bankers, politicians, and the 1%. They have solved nothing. The debt remains. The debt will not be paid.

Oil, food and commodity prices immediately soared on this announcement. Again, the wealthy will get richer and the average American will be destroyed by inflation on the things they need to live. The game goes on.

Indeed, just as with Hank Paulson’s little tip to the big boys – which is nothing new – some insiders probably made a killing by being tipped off about the swap lines. See this and this.

This isn’t a financial crisis … it’s a bank robbery...."
By Washingtons Blog


yes, totally..

"The 'worst' thing about Land? it'll grow Trees."


AmenRa said...

Germany PMI 47.9
EMU PMI 46.4
Swiss PMI 44.8
China PMI 47.7
US Weekly Claims 402k (est 390k)

All is not well. Anywhere.

AmenRa said...

ISM Mfg 52.8
Employment component 51.8 (prev 53.5)

BinT said...

"What’s holding the economy back? Hunt, who has also worked on the staff of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and as chief economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in New York, says the U.S. is stuck in a debt deflation. The term was coined in 1933 by economist Irving Fisher, a prominent Yale University professor, as he tried to explain the Great Depression. Fisher’s reputation never really recovered from his claim on the eve of the 1929 market crash that stocks had reached a “permanently high plateau.” And yet, his debt-deflation theory has gained currency in the aftermath of the collapse of credit markets in 2008.

Fisher describes a vicious spiral in which liquidation of debt slows the economy, cuts the value of assets, curtails lending, reduces employment and leaves businesses with excess capacity. The subsequent loss of confidence just makes things worse.

Americans are clearly in a sour mood, as Fisher’s theory would predict. Consumers are only slightly less pessimistic than they were at the February 2009 nadir of the financial crisis, according to the University of Michigan Confidence Survey’s expectations index." the way, retail sales are down in October by anywhere from 2-5% (except Germany)...and November should be no different..

QQQQ said...

Xmas rally buyers are becoming weaker, what's up their sleeves?

ZZZZ said...

I think today will be a snoozer.

AmenRa said...

Quiet. It's nice and quiet now that I've replaced the fan on my laptop. Also added some ram.

I see the market is down. Did they realize that the basis swap did nothing for the solvency of EU banks?

cv said...

From yesterday...

Senators Demand the Military Lock Up of American Citizens in a “Battlefield” They Define as Being Right Outside Your Window

This passed today. Maybe they were told that the financial system is on the verge of collapse and the cops are going to need all the help they can get. "There are no coincidences."


Add to that...

Georgia Arms is the 5th largest retailer of .223 Ammo in America . They sell 9mm, .45, .223 ammunition. They normally buy spent brass from the US Department of Defense. Spent brass is "one time used" shell cases used by our Military for training purposes.

They buy the brass, recondition it, and then reload the brass for resale to Law Enforcement, Gun Clubs, Gun Shops, and stores like Wal-Mart. They normally buy 30,000 lbs of spent brass at a time.

This week the DoD wrote a letter to the owner of Georgia Arms and informed him that from now on the DoD will be destroying the spent brass, shredding it. It will no longer be available to the ammo makers, unless they buy it in a scrap shredded condition (which they have no use for).

The shredded brass is now going to be sold by the DoD to China as scrap metal, after the DoD pays for it to be shredded. The DoD is selling the brass to China for less money than the ammo makers have been paying, plus the DoD has to pay to have the brass shredded and do the accounting paperwork.

Sell cheaper to China , and do not sell at all to a proven US business. Any hidden agenda working here? Going after the Firearms Industry and our ammunition!! The Georgia Arms owner even related a story that one of his competitors had already purchased a load of brass last week. The DoD contacted him this week and said they were sending someone over to make sure it was destroyed. Shell cases he had already bought!

The brass has no value to the ammo maker if it is destroyed/shredded/melted. The ammo manufacturer only uses the empty brass cases to reload different calibers, mainly .223 bullets.

The owner of Georgia Arms says that he will have to lay off at least half of his 60 workers, within 2-3 months if the DoD will no longer sell spent brass cases to the industry. Georgia Arms has 2-3 months of inventory to use.

If the Reloading Industry has to purchase new manufacture brass cases, then the cost of ammunition will double or even triple, plus Obama wants to add a 500% tax on each shell.

You can read the information and see the DoD letter to Georgia Arms here: The Shootist Site

I'd agree... There are no coincidences...

Now... where is "xyz" trading today?

AmenRa said...


So they are trying to make it more expensive for Americans to buy ammunition? Something is definitely brewing.

72bat said...

DOD rescinded the order after a firestorm of criticism
Sunday, March 15, 2009
DOD Ends Sale of Expended Military Brass to Remanufacturers


Notice: Thanks to the hundreds of people who have responded to this posting, and the thousands of gun owners who e-mailed DOD and their representatives in Congress...

This situation has been resolved.

DOD rescinded the order after a firestorm of criticism--which began almost immediately when they issued a directive to mutilate all expended military brass before it could be sold to the civilian reloading market.

AmenRa said...


Thanks for the update. 2nd Amendment lives on. The NRA had a hand in getting the DOD to rescind the order. Bet on it.

ben22 said...

there were widespread rumors of ammunition increase and massive shortage in 2008

ask any hunter, certain types of ammo were nearly impossible to find back then

whatever, it's just the slow march toward dictatorship that I'm starting to believe the majority of Americans want

and what they people want....well someone will be happy to deliver it to them

cv said...

Keep the bread (food stamps) & circuses (DWTS, 'Merikan Idle, & sports running 24/7) going, and most won't know they're living in a dictatorship until long after it has been transformed into that...

Just do what the 'Supercommittee' says & if they can't reach a verdict, don't worry, I'll decide what the laws should be...

AmenRa said...’s-european-“rescue”-another-back-door-us-bank-goldman-bailout
The Fed’s European “Rescue”: Another Back-Door US Bank / Goldman bailout? by Nomi Prins


"There are other reasons that have been thrown up as to why the Fed acted now – like, a European bank was about to fail. But, that rumor was around in the summer and nothing happened. Also, dozens of European banks have been downgraded, and several failed stress tests. Nothing. The Fed didn’t step in when it was just Greece –or Ireland - or when there were rampant ‘contagion’ fears, and Italian bonds started trading above 7%, rising unabated despite the trick of former Goldman Sachs International advisor Mario Monti replacing former Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi’s with his promises of fiscally conservative actions (read: austerity measures) to come.

Perhaps at that point, Goldman thought they had it all under control, but Germany's bailout-resistence was still a thorn, which is why its bonds got hammered in the last auction, proving that big Finance will get what it wants, no matter how dirty it needs to play. Nothing from the Fed, except a small increase in funding to the IMF.

Rating agency, Moody’s announced it was looking at possibly downgrading 87 European banks. Still the Fed waited with open lines. And then, S&P downgraded the US banks again, including Goldman ,making their own financing costs more expensive and the funding of their seismic derivatives positions more tenuous. The Fed found the right moment. Bingo."

AmenRa said...

Added a chart of NFP with 3LB, fiboonacci and rising wedge just for fun. You know "The FUN!"

Reftback said...

See you tomorrow for another round of:

hint: Don't try to game it, just buy whatever sells off tomorrow.

We would certainly fancy grabbing some USTs if it's a hot one (>200k).
A lot of that is going to be Mall Santas and "seasonal adjustments". So we would be looking to dump some equities and buy the long bond.

OTOH, if it's "the under", we might dip back into the 1210-1220s. We think that would bring us well and truly into JBTFD territory.

Anonymous said...


"I am tired and sick of war. Its glory is all moonshine.
It is only those who have neither fired a shot nor heard
the shrieks and groans of the wounded who cry aloud for blood,
more vengeance, more desolation. War is hell."
-- William Tecumseh Sherman
(1820-1891) General Commander of the United States Army

"A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny."
-- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
(1918-2008) Russian novelist, Soviet dissident, imprisoned for 8 years for critizing Stalin in a personal letter, Nobel Prize for Literature, 1970

"No matter what political reasons are given for war,
the underlying reason is always economic."
-- A. J. P. Taylor
[Alan John Percivale Taylor] (1906-1990) British historian


AmenRa said...


Nice quote:

"No matter what political reasons are given for war,
the underlying reason is always economic."
-- A. J. P. Taylor"

new thread

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