30 Yr Bond (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 136.875
rev= 144.719; mid= 141.375
The US long bond doesn't appear ready to go down just yet. It's still above the weekly 3LB mid. It wants to test the 0.0% retrace. With the EU set to implode (when the rumor half life becomes minutes) that test will be immediate. Notice that the high in Sept '10 is around the 38.2% retrace (love fibos).
2s30s Spread (weekly info)new low 2.65
trend=down
low= 2.65
rev= 3.12; mid= 2.89
It's bad enough that the banks have to use accounting tricks to show a profit. The 2s30s is making new lows so expect them to find new ways to try and show strength. It's testing its 61.8% retrace and is below all SMA's. It will also start trending down on the monthly 3LB if November closes below 2.70.
SPTMI (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 1431.19
rev= 1246.56; mid= 1338.88
The S&P Total Market Index turned bearish last week as it closed below its weekly 3LB mid. A break of the 38.2% retrace would be more convincing. The monthly 3LB direction is down but not trending.
25 comments:
McB,
re: previous thread..
see some of:
http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2011/11/reasons-to-wear-tinfoil-hats/?intcid=story_ribbon
most of this has been 'covered', in "pieces and parts", though..interesting to see it 'lumped together'..
~~
AmenRa,
nice Chartage/Wrappage..~
AAIP
Consumer confidence 56 = lower gas prices.
The long bond is held up by European money. Safety trades.
Euro has further to fall, Bucky is going to have a run at 80, 82.
Of course that isn't bullish energy or EMs.
Expecting a decent number tomorrow from ADP, or Friday from NFP.
That will be bullish all US assets.
This week's rally in mines, banks and energy etc.. should be sold.
We are holding our (AGG + TIP) fixed income position.
No long bonds here but would buy on weakness.
Sales 1.75B P/S 2.36
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=PNRA
~141.24
"Value Stock" x2 !
ibid.
good thing for OPM..
Inst Own 91.64%
It's all about undoing the carnage from last week. It helps that it's EOM and window dressing is in full swing. Usually it's the third or fourth day before the EOM that this occurs. Friday was a short day so it had to wait for Monday.
BTW the EFSF has failed to find a way to leverage up to $1.3T. ECB is steadfast. EU is toast.
These bounces can last longer than people expect. A move into the 50 DMA at 1210-1215 or so this week would be the most likely sell trigger. But beware a BTE ADP or NFP number - that could toast new shorts.
Sell exuberance and optimism. Europe is still f'ed until ECB cuts again and does QE. It may be a while until they get around to it.
Reftback
Until there are EU treaty changes the ECB can't do a thing. The AAA members are trying to find a way to circumvent the treaty and convince the ECB to print.
When the EU recession starts to bite in Germany they will move. It is not going to happen overnight. My model has a co-ordinated QE this winter, with ECB, BoJ and Fed all making large moves to reflate global growth.
Until then, sell all rallies in equities, avoid Europe and buy USTs on weakness. Right, Gary?
You bet, pardner.
From previous thread...
just my simple opinion that this is the future of "money", not nec. bitcoin, but the concept, maybe thats a very distant future, time will tell
& zumba...
---
It is of my opinion that the FUTURE of money is in the PAST...
Same idea could be applied to ZUMBA (which, basically when I started teaching, was called SWEATIN' TO THE OLDIES")...
It was basically a 'rah-rah' little hour of power where this short little gay jewish boy (with an afro hairdo) got fat ladies to back away from the stack of bon-bons for awhile and believe that everything was going to be fine as long as they kept giving him money, and treated everyone around them with the feigned respect that comes when you realize that there are whole groups of people as miserable as you...
I guess not much has changed... (except for the jetpacks which will be here in 5...4...3...2...)...
Yellen running her mouth about the Fed could looking into easing some more. Always trying to talk up the market with bs.
Always trying to talk up the market with bs.
---
Be sure to allow your cronies to 'frontrun' it first before to start yapping your flap...
CV
Hank Paulson currently residing in the Caymans...
S&P may cut France rating outlook within days
BUT the source of the article is La Tribune (the same one who put out the false IMF bailout rumor for Italy).
Next tranche of bailout funds for Greece approved by EU officials. Why keep pouring money down the drain?
ben22
Did you catch the low TICK for today. Yikes.
ADP tomorrow. Keep your eye on the ball.
That has the potential to generate a lot of Hopium.
In bear markets the rallies are sharp and vicious.
By the time JOHN E comes in, it's over. ROR.
We will all know when it is time to sell/get short again.
AGG and TIP flat. TLT down a bit.
As far as the bond markets are concerned, today never happened.
Ra,
not watching Tick so much today, will check out tonight
Ruh-roh.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-29/china-s-exports-to-europe-falling-off-cliff-chart-of-the-day.html
@Amen
Hank Paulson currently residing in the Caymans...
---
Gotta be because the weather is good for those pesky arthritic flareups... Gotta keep the joints healthy, right?
easy CV, Hank P is an avid bird watcher, he was simply taking in different breeds for a time in a new climate
C, BAC, WFC, GS ratings all cut by S&P.
...and Merrill Lynch.
As we've discussed in other contexts, a big chunk of the decline in consumer credit is due to defaults and write-offs. But the Fed's data shows that, combined with some pay down activity, the rash of foreclosures and defaults has lead to some significant changes over time. Compared to the second quarter of 2008, there were 10.2 million fewer mortgages open in the third quarter of 2011. The number of credit card accounts open fell from 492.19 million in the third quarter of 2008 to 383.27 million in the third quarter, a decline of 22 percent. "Balances on those cards were nearly 20% below their 2008Q4 high," the New York Fed notes.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daniel-gross/big-dig-fed-data-shows-households-attack-mountain-170636810.html;_ylt=AhL3r5X_m94qS2Jse5t3lbeiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ0NzNjdXZnBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIFRvcCBTdG9yeSBSaWdodARwa2cDMTBmMGNjNzAtZmMzMS0zYWMwLWFhM2QtZTQ1ZmQyNTgyZTM3BHBvcwMzBHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyAzI5NDliODIwLTFhYjctMTFlMS1iY2Q5LTQ1NzgwMjViMGY1NQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3
22% fewer credit card accounts than 2008...That means that Reftback had to spend 23000% more in his account to help salvage the retail trade..
...and JPM, MS, BoNY Mellon, US Trust.
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