Sunday Evening Post-Thanksgiving Hangover Edition: Week Ahead Glimpse

Hope Everyone had a great Thanksgiving.

It's "possible" I ate too much food and imbibed too much liquor...

After looking at the S&P500 a bit today, the best strategy for shorter term traders is to scale out of existing short trades or use 1183 as very near term stop loss point.  The market collapsed and finished at 1158 last week which was very much what we expected.  So, after a market does what is anticipated, there's not much to do but get "neutralish" and seek new ideas.

I'll be paying more attention to the metals and the dollar this week to see how they react to a possible S&P500 bottom (albeit short term.)  There will be updates to those markets in the week ahead.

Market Commentary 27NOV11


Addendum PERSONAL STORY:

So, every year we have 4-6 families who do a camping weekend near Thanksgiving time...we celebrate the holiday as friends.  We normally camp at some "bare bones" cabins in Lake Bastrop, but that area was burned to a crisp in the wildfires.  So, one of the ladies spotted this location on the internet:  Hill Country RV Resort and Cottages.

Now, as long as I have a BBQ near me and some trees and some fresh air, I'm normally OK with wherever we might land.  I didn't investigate this place or even look it up.  I just assumed that it was vetted in some way.

Long story short, my family is the first to arrive at this little "campground."  We're on the I-35 and my wife says:  "Ok, get off here and turn left at Rueckle Road."
Me:  "And then where do I go?"
Wife:  "It should be right here."
Me:  "Wait a minute.  It's right off this major interstate?"
Wife:  "Yeah, I was a little worried about that too when I realized we're so close to the highway."
Me:  "Yeah."

We quickly see some cyclone fencing which encloses this "RV Resort" and the accompanying playground for kids.  It borders this major road and interstate.

When I pull into this place all I see is a serious of widely paved concrete roads that head off into the distance where "mobile homes" can be observed.

It's Thanksgiving Day and we're supposed to be here for the next three days.

Nervousness sets it....

The office is closed.  Our "packet" is in a drop box. I pick it up and read that our "cabin" number is 62.

I start down this road where the cabins begin with #1

After the first four relatively new cabins I become shocked.

We start seeing a series of single-wide mobile homes that have become residences.  The windows are covered in foil and cardboard.  If you happen to be staying at #15, it's really easy to spot...as it has the numbers 1 and 5 spray-painted in RED on the side.   We observe at least 20 dilapidated mobile homes on cinderblocks that can best be described as "crack houses" or insipient "meth labs."

As we loop back to our row, the scene is the same.  Except for the fact that spot #60 is being gutted out by a crew of laborers.  There are saws buzzing and hammers hammering as the guts of this rotted out single wide lays out in the road.

We're just a few spots away from the action....

Another two families are coming for Thanksgiving Dinner and another three families are coming tomorrow.

I start doing that laugh...that sort of "crazy person" laugh....when you realize that you're utterly screwed.

Me to Wife:  "There's now way we can stay here.  The kids can't even ride their bikes.  I'd be afraid for them."

A 1999 Yellow Sebring rolls by thumping some loud street music.....and this young kid leers at my family....

Wife to Me:  "Yeah."

We call the the friend who "found" this place.  They were about 30 minutes behind us.  We told them we had to get out of here.  They thought we were joking...

Then, they arrived and took in the scenery....

Fellow Husband to Me as he jumps out of his car:  "What the hell?!"
Other Wife to my Wife:  "I thought you were just pulling my leg or trying to tease me!"

We to Them:  "No.  It's really bad."

It thought we were going to have to go back home.....Could not believe we left our homes for a "vacation" to come here.

Praise to Steve Jobs.

Various people quickly jumped on I-Phones and I-Pads and found a different spot about 30 minutes away owned by this really nice old French guy and his wife.  We ended up staying at this really quaint place north of where we were.  Because we now lacked cooking time and stoves, the Turkey was "butter-flyed" and grilled. (That was a first for me.)

This organic bird was brined 48 hours beforehand and was definitely "room temperature"...errrr "car temperature" by the time it hit the grill.

It was AWESOME.

It ended up being a great weekend ....  22 total people at this campsite on very short notice.  So, I'd like to give a little shout out to Pierre Crestin at Canyon Lake Cabins and Cottages who offered my group asylum on short notice.  He runs a good show....and we'll be back.

40 comments:

Andy T said...

Hopefully the above story doesn't portray me as some sort of "city snob" guy. I was mostly pissed about committing $150/night for this joint...it was some misleading advertising on their part. Nowhere in their literature did they mention the single wide mobile home park.

It would have been the most expensive cabin place we've ever stayed...

Anonymous said...

AT,

forget the 'city-snob' thang..

some places are, really, Whack.

happy to hear that 'the deal' worked out well..

had all the makin's of a true 'Horror-Story'.

best part of it is that y'all had sense, enough, to Blow--from the first joint..

anything, after that, had 'high probabilities' of 'being better'..

AAIP

btw, nice "accion`"--on the recent 'Market Calls'

AmenRa said...

Andy T

Wow what a story. Who had the thought that the place reminded one of "The Texas Chainsaw Massacres"?

AmenRa said...

That damn IMF rumor has been around all weekend. Futures scream higher anyway. BUT if Italy gets the IMF loan they can't get any more from the public. The IMF loan is senior to ALL other debt. You can pretty much kiss off rolling over any of their debt.

Andy T said...

Shocker.

Another plan where the powers that be attempt to solve a "solvency" problem with more liquidity.

We've seen this before, haven't we?

It doesn't really work.

QQQQ said...

"...Futures scream higher anyway."

7 down days in a row ready for a bounce, but this seems excessive. It's not like anything was fixed across the pond if the loan goes thru... just delayed for a while. maybe...

"best ever!" black friday = rally
and
media pumping cyber monday (best ever!) = rally

AT... Thanks for the update and glad to see your thxgiving vacation finished well for all. Sold all of my SDS calls towards the end of the week, lucky guess I guess. Was this close to buying long but just couldn't pull the trigger, but, spooz futures almost to your 1183 bounce in a few hours... hmmm

AmenRa said...

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d9a299a8-1760-11e1-b00e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1eyG3T1qy
The eurozone really has only has days to avoid collapse by Wolfgang Munchau

AmenRa said...

Futures may have gapped higher but stuck in a tight range. Similar to teleporting into a brick wall.

cv said...

@Andy (re: story)

So... you & blanky's wife...

http://maxkeiser.com/2009/08/06/lloyd-blankfeins-wife-freaks-out-at-having-to-wait-with-the-non-taxpayer-financed-little-people/

---

jk - I'm sure Ritholtz would have reacted in the same way...

Next year... How about a nice 'cabin' on the Titanic? It's the 100 year anniversary, you know... Then after that comes the 100 year anniversary of THE FED (while I'm on the subject of unsinkable passenger lines)...

cv said...

@Amen

The eurozone really has only has days to avoid collapse by Wolfgang Munchau

---

Oh, but I'm sure GOD will get them thru it... Just like he helped ol Hank...

http://articles.businessinsider.com/2010-01-28/news/30057445_1_aig-bailout-financial-crisis-hank-paulson

cv said...

This is all like effin glorified DWTS (with more prize money at stake) & assuming that 'money' is actually worth anything in the end...

Well - at least you have the 'TITLE' of DWTS champion in the end right?

Try putting that on a job resume or hoeing a garden with it...

ben22 said...

AT,

thanks for the charts, and what a story, I checked out the first spots website, they do a pretty good job hiding what it was really like, lots of nice shots of people enjoying the "game room"

looks like today will complete the "seasonal tendency" of Thanksgiving exactly in reverse, guess thats how it had to be as too many repeated that

"thanksgiving week good, Monday after bad" during November's sell-off.

BinT said...

Well, I am here to give you some hope..wistfully looking for the "good old days" are you Pumpkin? Sure you are. Remember when you could buy a stock, hold onto it for a few years, and sell for a reasonable profit? Sure you do. Now you feel squashed by computers and whipsawing markets?

Well I am here to tell you that Christmas is coming to YOU! BinT is making available his new patented High Frequency Trading Platform (HFTP) that will allow you to complete with the big boys on the block. Yes brothers and sisters help is on its way...forget those ads about "If you have 500,000 to invest, we can see the stock market clearly for that kind of money." Now even you, the little mashed-up roadkill of modern equity markets can make big money too!

Just send your certified check or Kruggerands to:

Brother BinT
High Frequency Trading Platform that Never Fails
P. O. Box 21225A
Nairobi, Kenya

Anonymous said...

Dear Brother BinT,

FedEx told me that they need a "Physical Address", as they cannot deliver to "P.O. Boxes".

Please send your advises, soonest.

Truly,

AAIP.

~~~

cv--,

http://babybulltwits.wordpress.com/2011/11/21/ranting-andy-mf-global-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-paper-markets/#more-8993

this dude seems to be channeling your thought-stream..~

also, nice Call on the NE v. PHL 'game'..

I guess 'Philly Phan' will have to content themselves w/'howling for the Pelt of Andy Reid'..'bout time...

AmenRa said...

WTI back to $100.

BinT said...

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/Yes-he-did-it-again-Tebow-8217-s-Broncos-come?urn=nfl-wp12661

"We played well enough to win, and we'll take that every week — including next week," head coach John Fox said after the game. "Part of coaching is putting your players in the best positions to take advantage of their abilities, and Timmy's got an outstanding ability. He proved it at a very high level in college, in the SEC at the University of Florida. It's something that he's comfortable with, and our team has adapted to it. Right now, it's working in the run portion of our offense. We've still got some growth to do in the passing portion, and we work on that every day. It's baby steps, but we'll get there."

...They may have found just the right coach....

AmenRa said...

I did find it interesting that SPX didn't gap higher at the open. That probably says more than any MSM headline.

Andy T said...

Who sells the 1158 level on the SP500 on friday...right at the 61.8%?

Who are these people?

BinT said...

Tough day to be short.

AmenRa said...

BinT

NYSE short interest actually decreased so there were no new shorts to squeeze.

see http://www.zerohedge.com/news/no-new-shorts-early-november-nyse-short-interest-drops-3-month-low

quote:
"Curiously, as the just released NYSE data, the short interest at November 15, not only did not increase in the previous two week period, it dropped to a 3 month low of 14.1 billion shares, just down from October 31. Which means that there were no new weak hands, and that all the algos who are pushing the market higher on hopes that short covering will take it even higher once a limit waterfall begins are likely to be disappointed. And with fundamentals completely irrelevant, this data update also likely means that shorts will take this opportunity to reshort the market."

AmenRa said...

Considering todays advance its surprising to see 40.4% of the NYSE above SMA(50) and 59.6$ below it.

AmenRa said...

Also there was no +1000 TICK reading.

Cold Steel said...

That was a classic bounce off a fibo. I am warming to my usual task of showing Mr Shorty some love.

I will keep at it until somewhere near the 50 DMA at 1210-1215 or so.

AmenRa said...

TNX at 19.84 (down from a high of 20.80).

Mr Bond said...

Guess I am not buying the rally...?

Mr Market said...

Nothing to do with you, we are just giving Mr Shorty close attention...

ben22 said...

"Who sells the 1158 level on the SP500 on friday...right at the 61.8%?

Who are these people?"

Acadamics?
News watchers?
Fundamentalists (well, some of them)

or....perhaps the client type I told you all about last week....

ben22 said...

clearly I'm not an academic, can't even spell it

Man Who Has Massive Longs said...

Sentiment was über-bearish last week. That usually triggers a squeeze.
Add in the fib and you have all the elements.

Not that I care, I have massive longs.

Anonymous said...

A three day move coming up, with the ADP ahead on Wednesday.
Up to the 50 DMA, around 1215.

Then back to the European theatre... watch Treasuries, as usual.

AmenRa said...

TNX 19.55 and falling.

AmenRa said...

HYG/LQD had a weekly 3LB reversal down last week.

AmenRa said...

SPX now more than 10 handles off its high. Started seeing some TICK reading of -1000.

ben22 said...

ra, indeed, watched TICK all day today

Cold Steel said...

I made a late appearance.

Just for THE FUN...

AmenRa said...

WTH was with that push at the close?

AmenRa said...

Fitch keeps US at AAA but revises outlook to negative. (Bloomberg breaking news)

cv said...

http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/11/28/9073132-stocks-surge-amid-euro-zone-consumer-hopes

---

NEW YORK — U.S. stocks jumped Monday as optimism grew that European leaders would come up with a new plan to resolve the region's debt crisis and following a strong start to the U.S. holiday shopping season.

---

So there you have it folks... Everything is going to be fine...

AmenRa said...

Link to Fitch: http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/press_releases/detail.cfm?pr_id=734693&origin=home

AmenRa said...

new thread

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.