ES (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 1263.75
rev= 1354.25; mid= 1309.00
The ES gapped lower on the open but hasn't violated any 3LB levels or fibonacci levels (yet). Somehow the market is trying to stay afloat after the debt ceiling talks broke down again. Since there's no Fed assistance what will have to be sold to make margin if the down move picks up steam? Right now it appears the BTD is winning. We'll see if it's another round of catch the falling knives.
USDJPY (weekly info)new low 78.40
trend=down
low= 78.40
rev= 80.22; mid= 79.31
USDJPY closed the week below the low from the week of the tsunami. Not looking good the the Yen. The BoJ may have to move up their plans for intervention.
31 comments:
comment 'eaten'..
"....Voltaire gives us the clue.
“Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – ZERO” Voltaire, 1729
Other helpful “clues” are:
“ * The US dollar is down 82% against gold since 1999
* The US dollar is down 49% against the Swiss Franc since 2001
* The Dow Jones is down 81% against gold since 1999
* The Continuous Commodity Index is up 100% since 2009
..."
is another piece of..
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/deepcaster/07/21/profitably-playing-manipulation
- "Since there's no Fed assistance what will have to be sold to make margin if the down move picks up steam?"
- "The BoJ may have to move up their plans for intervention..."
or for that matter...
“ * The US dollar is down 82% against gold since 1999
* The Dow Jones is down 81% against gold since 1999
* The Continuous Commodity Index is up 100% since 2009
---
repeat after me... the fed has nothing to do with anything...
Whoosh?
3 Month Moving Average Prior -0.19 Prior Revised -0.31 Actual -0.60
Level Prior -0.37 Prior Revised -0.55 Actual -0.46
One could have written a lot of similar stats up in say....1982?
I think the key to Voltaire's quote is the word, 'eventually'....yes?
also, the comment about the Fed and margin, think it through, sort of denies how markets work, buyers and sellers and such....
That's for the CFNAI (Chicago Fed National Activity Index)
All the work the Swiss Central Bank did to bring down the franc was for naught.
ben22
Many banks HAVE to buy USTs. So not only will they have to deal with margin calls but they also have to support the auctions. Unless they're going to use their reserves at the Fed, where will the additional funds come from?
Ra,
clearly the Fed can become buyer of last resort at any moment if needed, I hardly worry right at the moment that the banks hands are somehow tied as a result.
more important than all the speculative debate on that front, the bond market is not in panic the last two weeks, that's all that matters to me.
it's beyond me why ANY market would ever be in ANY panic anymore (so long as the PRINT button is close at hand)...
Well - that is, save for the SUPERmarket or the MINI-market (where you fill up your car with gas)...
---
Of course you don't see the panic YET (in those markets)... Why?
- because many of the "welcome to the SNAP program" peeps are still kind of what you say (in the '99er' club - I know SNAP & unemployement are different - I'm just using a metaphor)... 99 weeks of free money (unemployment) is kind of cool at first... Then when you start hitting weeks 90+ you might start to panic...
SNAP is kind of like "cool I get my iPhone bill & direct TV bill comped"... Thank you Peggy Joseph for your wonderful insights...
But in a couple of years, when the 'dollar menu' is, truly, dogfood, & otherwise Jenny Craig is offering the revolutionary new "catfood diet", you're not so happy...
But who really cares... You'll then have FLOTUS telling you to grow okra in your garden ab hubby telling you to 'eat your peas'... so it's all good...
Better get started right away, because once crude starts to get priced in Au (not dollars), you won't have any gas to drive to the 'MARKET' (you know - the one that is not in panic the last two weeks & that's all that matters to you)...
CV,
so someone should ignore the bond market? nice advice, that's probably a real winner for traders
but thanks for explaining that markets don't discount anything, they simply measure social mood in real time....wow, what a revelation.
http://www.dallasfed.org/data/outlook/index.cfm
July 25, 2011
Texas Manufacturing Activity Picks Up
Texas factory activity expanded in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 5.6 to 10.8, suggesting output growth picked up this month.
Indexes reflecting general business conditions improved in July. The general business activity index remained negative for the third month in a row but jumped from –17.5 to –2, suggesting only a slight worsening this month. The company outlook index rose from 7.2 in June to 11 in July, indicating manufacturers were more optimistic about their firms’ prospects for the near future. Ninety percent of respondents said their outlooks were unchanged or improved from last month.
Labor market indicators reflected more hiring and longer workweeks. The employment index came in at 12.1, up from 5.3 in June. Twenty-two percent of manufacturers reported hiring new workers, the highest share this year. The hours worked index rose from 1.5 to 7.9.
Even if the US defaults the bond holders are fine with it. AS LONG AS they get theirs. But if there is any doubt that they won't get paid then look out.
also, there aren't a lot of food stampers that trade fixed income, so I'm not really sure that's the real mindset you see reflected in the market
If you can find me the time the markets and currencies were about to blow up and the bond market wasn't signaling it I'd be quite interested
or I suppose we could just get back to those calls for hyperinflation any day now instead.....
can you tell me where I said "someone should ignore the bond market"
As for markets "discounting"...
My take woul be that markets are "discounting" a continuing MARK TO FANTASY world (as they have been for the past 3 years now - & really, longer than that)...
Want to see things that AREN'T "marked to fantasy"? Head on over to the supermarket, or gas station...
Funny thing too is... Let's say we get a Ron Paul/Bob Prechter wet dream world thrust upon us, & prices for everything across the board collapse...
I'm still going to be happier that my bags of rice just went from $25 to $15 than I am that an investment portfolio of $250,000 just went to $150,000...
Unless, of course, your name is dL (& you managed to top tick & bottom tick everything - which I'm sure will happen)...
there aren't a lot of food stampers that trade fixed income, so I'm not really sure that's the real mindset you see reflected in the market
So then... "the market" doesn't reflect REAL people or their travails, they only reflect what traders do...
Telling!
markets reflect people operating/partcipating in markets
that's telling?
ok.....
CV,
I'm not here to defend prechter, but you continue to say things that, to me, basically show that you don't really know his outlook, you might try reading some of his stuff before repeating over and over again what his "wet dream" is.....
also CV
the traders in the bond pits, they are real people, seriously I'm not making this up, I've literally touched some of them
so they most certainly do reflect the actions of REAL people
Peggy Joseph never mattered.....ever, she's just some idiot.
...& you keep telling me that "the Fed has nothing to do with anything"...
Ummm... during QE2, the Fed "monetized" US Treasury issuance to the tune of $100 billion per months (last time I checked - that is a bond market)...
Reportedly, the Fed holds more US Treasury debt at the moment than even the Chinese...
So when you say that 'bond markets aren't really worried'... Yeah - I guess not...
Of course that's because the Fed (who holds most of the stuff) knows ITSELF that it has nothing to do with anything so why should they worry?
I think I explained my stance on the fed, for the millionth time last week, never ever once indicated they had nothing to do with anything. that idea is moronic and also a total misrepresentation of anything I've ever said
but to your point, the Fed controls the bond market....
fucking hilarious bro....
and besides you aren't saying anything new, the Fed will be afraid after the fact, that's all they ever do, but my claim was never about that, because the bond market is bigger than the fed.
"bond market is bigger than the fed."
& From November 2010 to June 30, 2011... That $100 billion a month must have come from that dude whose shoulder you touched in the pits...
Got it!
I feel much better now that I know what's going on...
CV,
remind me again, what did fixed income markets do during QE2?
because for all the "control" the Fed had it seems to me that the exact opposite of what the Fed claimed would happen is what took place, much to the astonishment of the hyperinflation crowd.
now quick, explain to me how that was all really by design that it played this way, you know, Bernanke has been such a master forecastor the last several years it just sounds so compelling when people come back to me with
"well, yeah, the Fed said that, but they didn't really mean it, and the only thing that is real is the cost of an orange at Whole Foods"
pros front ran the Fed, Bernanke and crew weren't controlling shit, this seems so obvious to me that it's amazing I'm even discussing this right now
and to finalize, 7-8 weeks ago all the hand wrigning was "oh my god, who is going to buy government bonds once the Fed stops, the whole market is going to collapse once QE2 ends"
and yet, it's 7/25 and that still hasn't happened and so we can now see the argument changing
"well, it hasn't collapsed YET because the Fed is the bond market and they haven't panicked"
yeah....that must be it.....
as for Prechter... I don't need to read the manifesto... I'm a "fill in the blanks" kinda guy...
Tell me BASICALLY what someone is saying & I'll follow it to its logical conclusion... I'm that way with my job... I could baffle anyone with a bunch of 'truisms' on the subject of fitness, but there is only on real bottom line...
if you burn more calories than you eat then you lose weight... eat more calories than you burn, you gain weight... STOP...
---
Prechter, bottom line, believes that a Supercycle of "asset price inflation" has completed, an now we should expect the nuclear winter of that phenomenon...
I actually agree with that...
But HOW that will occur is the subject of debate...
Money is debt (in this system)... debts have reached the point that they can't really be repaid... So naturally, debt destruction must occur, which is deflationary...
Problem is this...
The debt still exists... It hasn't been written off... it's simply been transferred to soverign balance sheets (ostensibly to be TAXEd out of the citizenry at some point in the future), or siphoned away via programs that you were already "taxed" on, but in the future, will pay out less than what you' contributed via the tax...
For all intents & purposes, there's also a coupla three trillion in 401k "assets" that can (& WILL) be raided as part & parcel of this can kicking "keep the debt alive - & hell - why not just add to it while we're at it" - charade...
How long will it last? Who knows... But asset price deflation really only happens after the last morsel of the middle class is stolen... Then, everything hyperinflates in a bonfire & you finally have your deflation...
if it was going to be the other way, we'd have taken the icelandic route 3 years ago...
@ben
I don't care what happened to bond prices during QE2... (or what anybody touted as to what they would or wouldn't do)...
I care about reality...
- What have food prices (sometimes reflected in lower volume packaging) one? Gone up
- What have gas prices done? Gone up
- What have PM prices done? Gone up
Any questions?
In other "fill in the blanks" news...
don't ask me how I just KNEW (& stated many times in the preamble), that the NFL strike would miraculously get resolved on or around July 22nd...
I wasn't at the meetings... I didn't read the manifesto...
Technically, I was INCAPABLE of making any kind of informed comment on the subject... I'm sorry for having done so (& wasted all your time in the process)...
I anxiously await for someone to tell me what REALLY went down now that it's all been settled...
I'll gladly go back to finger painting while I'm being 'schooled' on the subject...
Greece’s credit rating was cut three steps by Moody’s Investors Service, which said the European Union’s rescue for the debt-laden nation will cause substantial losses for investors and amount to a default.
Greece’s long-term foreign currency debt was downgraded to Ca, its second-lowest rating, from Caa1, the company said in a statement in London today. Moody’s said it will reassess the risk profile of any outstanding or new securities issued by Greece after the debt exchange that’s part of the new rescue plan has been completed.
“The combination of the announced EU program and the debt exchange proposals by major financial institutions imply that private creditors will experience substantial losses on their holding of Greek government bonds and this is something we need to reflect in the rating,” Moody’s senior analyst Sarah Carlson said in an interview."
...from Bloomberg.
Ah yeah CV, of course you dont' care what the markets actually did, clearly you'd prefer to develop intuitive sounding theories rather than pay attention to markets, or even sensational ones about JPM and others and what they are "really" doing.
"Any questions?"
only one
why'd you leave the lack of panic in the bond market off your list of reality? Lets not go spouting about whats "real" and then do that, your list of "reality" is full of selection bias.
Guess the markets weren't too concerned about that Debt ceiling bullshit.
Andy,
Did you real the "How happy I am I moved to Texas" story at CR this am? It is a hoot.
why'd you leave the lack of panic in the bond market off your list of reality?
The lack of panic in the bond (which I didn't off my list, in fact, I stated quite specifically here)... (11:02)
"My take woul be that markets are "discounting" a continuing MARK TO FANTASY world (as they have been for the past 3 years now - & really, longer than that)..."
---
That's it... pure & simple... It's also the answer to Andy (12:49)...
Markets aren't concerned with anything anymore because everyone knows that there are a bunch of central bankers around the world ready to hit the PRINT button when some country is in danger of not making the monthly nut of interest payments...
Sure... Markets will trade up & down (consisting of probably 90% algos, & 10% of you & the guy you tap on the shoulder in the bond pit)...
The movements of those paper prices will likely align themselves with fibo relationships & other architectural mathematical things that all things seem to do...
---
Occasionally (hasn't happened since 2008, but most likely will), it will be a handy maneuver to pull the rug out an cause a bunch of scrambling around (maybe an opportunity, next time, for, instead of Bear Stearns, Merrill, & Wachovia to get folded into JPM, BOA, & Wells & Lehman to shutter the doors - to have BOA get folded into...well... There's only a few choices left anymore now aren't there?)...
Recently - it hasn't been necessary to do such things because first there needed to be a bounce off 666... Then you ha to run with the bullshit "green shoots" crapola... Mix in a mi-term election cycle, call a "summer of recovery", do a QE2, an um, oh yeah... kill Bin Laden...
When those distractions can't buy you anymore time... I'm sure the next 'deep correction' will happen (& I suppose the bond market will PRICE IT IN) & of course, everyone will marvel at how there is a FLIGHT TO SAFETY in the dollar & the inflationistas had it wrong all along...
Hell... Maybe even gasoline will COLLAPSE to $2.50 a gallon... I won't quite say $1.75 (like it did in 2008... So that's what? a 33% INCREASE in the deflation armageddon price...
What's the trend here?
Well... Of course I already know the answer to that one... Which is... If crude fails to make it to $150 before the next big dip... It's deflation FOR SURE (& all the more reason that the Fed [the one that doesn't have anything to do with anything - yet whose name is on all the bills I have in my pocket right now] will have to run the printing presses double time to prevent the big deflationary collapse that's imminent)...
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