Morning Corner 7.29.11

SPX/Gold Ratio (monthly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 0.7645
rev= 1.0672; mid= 0.9159


Here's the truth about QE1, QE2, unexplainable rallies, etc. They're all BS. In terms of gold the SPX is looking to make new lows. It's below all SMA's. It's making a weekly 3LB reversal down (1 more day).



XLP/SPY Ratio (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
low= 0.2350
rev= 0.2450; mid= 0.2400

It appears consumers are heading for the hills as discretionary is falling faster than the SPY. It's still below the weekly 3LB mid and fighting to stay above the monthly 3LB mid. It's below the SMA(21) and support is the SMA(233). That's a pretty good drop if it's get there.

40 comments:

Kyla McIlquham said...

Well, my business is good. Thanks for posting! (7/25)

BinT said...

Revised GDP was .4%....i suppose i will keep my very sarcastic comment to myself..

AmenRa said...

BinT

That's one helluva revision.

ben22 said...

those GDP revisions were real hot.....QE2 was the best!

several techs I follow have given sell signals this week, none of them are named Prechter

good luck

mcHAPPY said...

Anyone brave enough to buy the 200MA?

AmenRa said...

There are two bullish moves that have been decimated this week. Momo Mondays and the final four days of the month. They are joining Knife Catchers Anonymous.

ben22 said...

NTGR is getting smoked......

so is NLY

Ra,

check out TICK

ben22 said...

GMCR and CROX

hilarious

QQQQ said...

SPX slot machine might pay off today

Anonymous said...

So who do you think is buying the dip today? STL

QQQQ said...

What is real anymore? ...that GDP revision is outrageous. On top of that, it still has one more revision... end of fiscal year.

Just like the unemployment and housing data... all massaged numbers.

ben22 said...

Doug Kass bought

probably tons of people that follow MA's....I mean, its self fulfilling after all.

QQQQ said...

re GMCR, that stock is up like 10,000% in about 8 years... (gulp)

Andy T said...

think i'd have to wait for 1250 to take a stab....

nice bounce going here though...

I've got a lot of chart work to do this weekend.

AmenRa said...

You mean the headline from Cantor that they have the votes needed was enough to send the market higher? GTFOOH. Nothing will happen until Tuesday at midnight with a last second deal.

AmenRa said...

Why is Bove on every financial news channel?

ben22 said...

"You mean the headline from Cantor that they have the votes needed was enough to send the market higher?"

Ra, it's probably about a 100% that there were lots of algo's set up to buy the 200, regardless of any politicians comments

"Why is Bove on every financial news channel?"

Beard....

BinT said...

lefty, who is short the bond market, is getting his, uh, hat handed to him today...

AmenRa said...

ben22

EMA or SMA? Last time it was the EMA that the algos bought.

AmenRa said...

ben22

re: TICK

Todays low reading never took out the one from 9/27/11.

cv said...

@Andy

1260 is the likely spot where the "dark cross" would occur (50Ma over 200Ma)... & where 'passage over', last year (in June), led to Jackson Hole (in August)... Frontrun (in July), of course by...

Everyone EXCEPT the e-trade babies...

CV remembers all of this very well, because it's about the point in my life that I finally realized the utter farcical nature of our "capitalist" (rolls eyes) system, & started yammering "silver bitchez" (which - since May - has become "gold arbitrage bitchez" & has all the while been "nickles bitchez")...

Anyway... I pretty much have been saying for over a month now that QE3 (at least the 'announcement' of it) will come AFTER the "dark cross" (& probably a Hindenburg Omen or two tossed in for good measure)...

Not that anybody really is interested...

Perhaps y'all WILL be interested in my 2011 NFL kickoff post (which I'll launch tomorrow)... Since I pretty much called the end of the NFL strike (to within 48 hours - at least 4 months ago)... Maybe somebody will find something of interest there...

cv said...

@Amen

Why is Bove on every financial news channel?

Because the's the only "go to poster boy TOOL" around that can manage to keep the dickhead J6P's from pulling all their $$ out of bank stocks leaving them severly undercapitalized to even pass the most farcical of stress tests & leave the world the barren wasteland that it OH SO WANTS to become...

You know... They need some fucking grandfatherly 'Captain kangaroo' lookin' MF on TV, or the [enter religion of your choice] confetti world will die...

QQQQ said...

Well seems this week, at least in the western pacific region, all of the contractors, engineers and govt employees that are working on projects, like new ATCT's, NEXCOM (new radio installations) ....well really everything, have been sent home. Word is that if the bill is passed next week, the FAA furloughed employees will most likely get regular pay for time off.

Anonymous said...

How bout the REIT flash crash? AGNC was down to 22 for a second, NLY to 14. They've bboth recovered to what would normally be considered large losses ... yikes!

ben22 said...

"he's the only "go to poster boy TOOL" around that can manage to keep the dickhead J6P's from pulling all their $$"

Bove has been telling people to get out for weeks, so I"m not sure this is the case, he's effectively been in panic.

They cover her over at Dealbreaker almost daily.

And CV, don't look now, but there ARE still POMO's going on, so QE3 would simply be more of the same, you just don't hear anyone talking about it as their feelings/emotions have all their attention elsewhere

quite comical really

cv said...

@ben

whatever you say... fine...

bove is a mouthpiece tool... (like 101.618% of all the rest that they put up in front of the cameras)...

AmenRa said...

CV

Did some of your posts just disappear?

QQQQ said...

B22, ya know what's not comical, DC is withholding 3 of my expense report reimbursements for BS reasons. They say I haven't explained them correctly, which is funny because I've been doing it the same frik'n way for a decade now. They've been approved and certified then rejected 3 times already!, but guess the DC pukes don't have the $$$ to pay me so they're making up excuses.

Fucking MF Asshole SOB's! ordering pizza on the taxpayers dime but won't pay their debt on money I've already paid out! ALL of them dickwarts are the dumbest MFers who ever shit behind a pair of shoes! I'm pissed!

AmenRa said...

FTR the 3/09-7/10 trend line (on a non log chart) crosses at 1290. Market DOES NOT want to close below that going into the weekend. It's avoided closing below it so far this year.

QQQQ said...

oh, bot some FXA puts an hour ago, hope this trade works out next couple weeks.

cv said...

@ben

And CV, don't look now, but there ARE still POMO's going on, so QE3 would simply be more of the same, you just don't hear anyone talking about it as their feelings/emotions have all their attention elsewhere

Look - I'm just not in the mood to really argue about anything today... OK?

Bottom line?

- We're broke
- The world's broke
- Nobody can even HOPE to pay their bills or obligations anymore (or even SAY they're going to try with a straight face)

- Central banks around the world KNOW this
- So they're going to PRINT money (for as long as it's going to keep the merry go round spinning - ridiculous as that seems - it's worked so far ue to HEFTY levels of denial)
- Hell... The charade might even go on for quite awhile if people like yourself keep finding ways to defend dick Bove, & Ritholtz keeps convincing dedue, franklin411, & Thor that it's all part of a 'typical recovery'...
- We'll revisit these 'Euro contagion' crises & US debt ceiling charades (probably on an annual basis for the forseen future)...

Meanwhile... Gas prices will go up... Food prices will go up... Gold will go up...

Some stuff won't skyrocket just yet (because they still believe that some Harvard-Princeton-Columbia grad was right in saying that PRINTING PAPER MONEY will eventually solve the problem)... Which will have the effect of 'stifiling' price discovery in other areas for the time being...

- E-Trade babies will continue to trade the spot valuations on those transactions (then pay ever increasing taxes on their winnings)
- Elites will FRONTRUN them & collect all their losses
- Taxes will go up
- The middle class will get vaporized

Basically...

Business as usual... YAWN...

are you ready for some football???

72bat said...

q's -
entirely sympathetic to your situ and p.o.ed state. just multiplying that in my mind by all the others whose gubmint checks could be runnin' a little late next week. whoeee! talk about a shit storm.

ben22 said...

CV,

two things,

1. I'm not arguing with you, I agreed with you!!!! You are already right, there already is QE3.....chill out spaz.

2. Dick Bove is an asshat, but he's not telling people to buy buy buy, I have no problem ripping someone apart for stupid calls, I do have a problem when people misrepresent others.

and yeah...I'm ready for some football

ben22 said...

Q's

I hear you, though I suppose what you describe should be expected when there is such a moronic chain of command to get anything done

it's government defined

DMV is exhibit A

cv said...

I mean... for fucking pete's sake!!!

They've managed to stretch it out this far...

By now we're fully in to the 2012 campaign process... Stretching it out another 18 months while the dickhead TOTUS gives press-conferences every day outht to be fucking CAKE...

Who knew "Hope & Change" meant (HOPE that I don't PRE-EMPT "All my Children" & 'The View" today & force a CHANGE in program listings)...

Hey... at least CV wasn't stupid enough to vote for the MF... at least I have THAT going for me (with regards to my judgement capabilities)...

cv said...

@ben

You pay a 10% juice for "wrong calls" in sports betting...

Which means you probably have to be 60% correct to even get past BREAK FUCKING EVEN on calls...

My NFL calls (& NCAA calls) are FULLY documented on this blog (Oscars calls as well & even some MACRO market calls - which are more 'toss outs' & I take LESS pride in than the aforementioned two)...

Bove is what? 1 for 20???

He's a fucking idiot... If I'd posted here on this blog for 20 years that the Bengals & Lions were going to be in the Superbowl, then told you the Steelers had a good chance to make it last year... You'd be laughing at me & calling me an asshat...

But go ahead & berate me for misrepresenting Bove at will... LOL...

QQQQ said...

72bat... rant over, took a walk, puff'd down a couple smokes and on the way gave $2 to a guy pushing a shopping cart with all of his belongings down the sidewalk. That put some things into perspective for me.

gonna try and NOT watch any news channels this weekend.

cv said...

Trimmed beards bitchez!

The Bernank & Bove... Put those f-ers on TV & chances are that buys you another day in the "[enter religion of your choice] confetti" casino...

72bat said...

q's -
you had/have a legit cause to rant. glad to hear you have such good rant-management skilz, walking and observing. i-man surely would approve.
mellow weekend for all.

cv said...

For the mathematicians & statisticians out there who require a LARGER SAMPLING SIZE on Bove...

For your amusement...Note: "B" is a buy rating - prize goes to whoever finds an "S" on that chart - which only goes to prove... A FUCKING BROKEN CLOCK may not even necessarily be right twice a day...

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/draghi/Bove%20BAC.png

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.