EURCHF (weekly info)new low 1.1477
trend=down
low= 1.1477
rev= 1.2126; mid= 1.1802
Last week was not the best for the euro as seen by the rise in the Swiss Franc. This week isn't starting off any better. Trending down on the weekly 3LB and below all SMA's.
GOLD (weekly info)new high 1590.10
trend=up
high= 1590.10
rev= 1486.90; mid= 1538.50
With the world currencies racing to the bottom it's no wonder gold (and silver) are pushing to new highs. Still not sure if how long it would take before people wake up and see what's happening.
31 comments:
"With the world currencies racing to the bottom it's no wonder gold (and silver) are pushing to new highs. Still not sure if how long it would take before people wake up and see what's happening"
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Well we already know from reading this blog (whilst concurrently having the 'delete all CV comment views' radio button activated), that the rise in commodities/fiat destruction HAS NOTHING TO dO with any scheule of QE (or 'perceived' QE, or 'wanna be' QE, or 'super double secret' QE)...
See... I can show you on the chart right here...
QE2 didn't start until NOVEMBER 2010 (and there was really no Jackson Hole last year, or a month of 'frontrunning' that)...
& right now... 'There is no QE3', because Bernanke says so (so this little short term spike in commodities probably has nothing to do with more fiat 'value' destruction)... Just like he said that 'subprime was contained', (so the market crash, fitting the same argument to it)... Probably ha NOTHING TO dO, with excessive debt & bad loans)...
[snark off]
FWIW... I still like Andy T's chart from last week (on Au & Ag)...
Looks like this week I'll FINALLY get a chance to swap some scrap sterling for some Au... Though... it's more just a function of the Ag price itself... As I lamented about more than 2 months ago when I said "arbitrage bitchez", I felt that when the opportunity FINALLY presented itself, it would likely mean that I was topticking Au...
Oh well... "needs is needs"...
Frankly...
The way I expect all of this to play out is as follows: (no need to read further if you have the "delete all CV comment views" radio button activated because this is all just invisible ink anyway...
- We're alreay getting marginal new highs in Au...
- Guessing (hoping) Ag will catch up quickly (it may all happen in one day)... I can't even speculate whether it will stop @Andy's fibo levels, or push right up to a $50 double top...
- I wouldn't be surprised at all if this wasn't all just a trap to get PM bulltards holding the bag here... A ouble top in Ag would sure make a nice case for a healthier 'correction' (the one that started on May 1st weekend)... Timewise - a larger pattern triangle might end up pointing to a conclusion AFTER the 2012 elections (a pattern that woul be impossible to see at the moment if you're not familiar with playing 3-d chess)...
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Anyway - I could still see $25 or $26 Ag within the next 6 months, so no need to get stupid here...
Or, think of it this way... PAPER Ag is downright stupid... So, if you're BUYING physical, & paying a $4-$5 buck premium, you're already getting close to paying $50...
If you're "selling", you on't want to sell pure, you want to sell SCRAP...
Most dealers will pay you 75% of spot for 92.5% sterling... So anything over $40, you're 'getting' $30 bucks for (which is still over $26 + $4)...
Thus, the arbitrage... You're basically trading UP in quality of holdings...
Someone might say... Why not just SELL & buyback later...
Answer: The heftier commissions on both sides of the exchange, plus the risk that, come that time, if the banks are really in dire nee for PM's, they'll convince the nitwit politicians to levy a 100% tax on PM capital gains...
Basically, you're better off exchanging sterling for Au here (effectively "topticking" Au, for awhile anyway)... You can then always say "Here - I bought this Au at $1600, not at $200"...
There's no algo for that in your Td Ameritrade account with the pattern recognition software...
Again - no CERTAINTIES being expressed here, just 'best guesses'...
Could be the morning to finally sell some Gold....
Hmmm looks like the Swiss Central Bank is in the market. Even though the EURUSD is down, EURCHF is well off its lows. I guess breaking below 1.1400 was too much to handle.
Actually, what is about to happen is probably ok with me. Why should it be put on the shoulders of people under age 10? Lots of talk about kicking the can down the road, but people don't seem to recognize the can anymore.
Let's just get on with it.
What ever happened to that story about the trader who bought a million dollars (or something like that), of SLV July $25 strike puts??? (back in April)...
Suppose they cashed out by now...
CV
He was seen carrying a sign that said "The End Is Near".
Last weeks low was 1306.51. Will there be a BTFD moment or GMTFO moment?
Lots of talk about kicking the can down the road, but people don't seem to recognize the can anymore.
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2008 - "Yes we can!"
2012 - "Yes we (kick the) can!"
---
IOW
2008 - "I'm basically just a dick - but since most Americans are just as dumb as me or the last guy - they'll vote for me"
2012 - "I'm basically still just a dick - but since most Americans are still just as dumb as me - they'll vote for me while cautioning you that the next guy/gal is even dumber than me"...
..."but Ritholtz likes me... so I got that going for me"...
Typical Recoveries bitchez!
10 year has dropped below 2.9...well, either they are really smart or dumber than a bag of rocks.
Excellent!
Maybe now TG can get a ecent "re-fi" on the home that he topticked in 2006 (& is, to my knowledge, still on the market)...
Egan-Jones takes the first step: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/egan-jones-downgrades-us-aaa-aa
Egan-Jones Downgrades US From AAA To AA+
From the release:
Real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 4.0% in Q1 2011, following an increase of 3.5% rise in the prior quarter. Personal consumption expenditures, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment contributed positively to growth during the quarter. Meanwhile, imports rose sharply. In the March 2011 quarter, trade in goods and services resulted in a deficit of $562B, many because of the high price of petroleum. However, the major factor driving credit quality is the relatively high level of debt and the difficulty in significantly cutting spending. We are taking a negative action not based on the delay in raising the debt ceiling but rather our concern about the high level of debt to GDP in excess of 100% compared to Canada's 35%. Nonetheless, since the US's debt is denominated in dollars, a hard default is unlikely.
AT,
re: The British Open..
Philly Mick was one thing, did you see how many short putts He missed over those 4 Rounds?
but, to me, Dustin Johnson is the curious case..did you that 2nd shot He hit on 14?
long-iron, from 265, into a 15-20 MPH Wind ??
He hit that thing Straight Right, OOB!
anyway, was an amazing, to me, choice of shot/club ..
AAIP
"Typical Recoveries bitchez!"
Well, here's the SPX 1296 bounce, at least. When are we gonna get a sub-7% unemployment bounce?
GASO-WIN, SILVER-PLACE, GOLD-SHOW
Natty making its move in the backstretch?
Dollar broke another leg, a DNF, maybe needs to be taken out back and shot.
gold/silver ratio, with gold, with silver
...12 month performance...
Crude Oil (petroleum), Price index 41.94%
Coal, Australian thermal coal 21.48%
Coal, South African export price
Crude Oil (petroleum) 41.64%
Crude Oil (petroleum); Dated Brent 52.00%
Crude Oil (petroleum); Dubai Fateh 45.34%
Crude Oil (petroleum); West Texas Intermediate 27.74%
Diesel 44.88%
Gasoline 40.76%
Heating Oil 46.01%
Indonesian Liquified Natural Gas 55.28%
Jet Fuel 48.06%
Natural Gas -5.51%
Propane 46.58%
RBOB Gasoline 26.87%
Russian Natural Gas 24.07%
Cocoa beans -6.66%
Coffee, Other Mild Arabicas 43.54%
Coffee, Robusta 48.04%
Tea 27.33%
Barley 43.98%
Maize (corn) 103.14%
Rice 12.41%
Sorghum 98.84%
Wheat 107.05%
Bananas 2.23%
Oranges -27.72%
Beef 23.17%
Poultry (chicken) -0.26%
Lamb 10.92%
Swine (pork) 20.11%
Fish (salmon) 0.67%
Shrimp 12.88%
Sugar 52.88%
Sugar, European import price 9.86%
Sugar, U.S. import price 27.20%
Coconut Oil 81.57%
Fishmeal -17.01%
Olive Oil, extra virgin 5.86%
Palm Kernel Oil 67.94%
Palm oil 40.66%
Peanut Oil 47.54%
Groundnuts (peanuts) 49.39%
Rapeseed Oil 60.29%
Soybean Meal 24.57%
Soybean Oil 52.26%
Soybeans 43.40%
Sunflower oil 56.00%
Coarse Wool 81.65%
Copra 82.18%
Cotton 79.90%
Fine Wool 102.87%
Hard Logs 60.08%
Hard Sawnwood 15.72%
Hides 19.45%
Rubber 38.37%
Soft Logs -0.82%
Soft Sawnwood -12.14%
Aluminum 32.57%
Cold-rolled steel 5.88%
Copper, grade A cathode 39.46%
Gold 23.99%
Hot-rolled steel 6.67%
Iron Ore 18.97%
Lead 47.90%
Nickel 15.50%
Rebar 3.64%
Silver 93.38%
Steel wire rod 4.64%
Tin 47.87%
Uranium 35.85%
Zinc 27.94%
DAP fertilizer 36.61%
Potassium Chloride 36.68%
Rock Phosphate 46.00%
Triple Superphosphate 58.45%
Urea 111.91%
one scenario...
TD Economics says that it sees commodity prices resuming their climb later this year as some of the unusual risks facing the global economy begin to recede.
In a research note, TD says that “after beginning the year on fire”, world commodity markets have cooled off since the spring. The TD Commodity Price Index is down 6% from its peak in April to the end of June.
Markets have been seized with a number of worries about the outlook for global growth, TD says, pointing to the effects of the Japanese earthquake in March, rising inflation in China, an unanticipated U.S. soft patch, and concerns over sovereign debt in Europe and the U.S.
However, it sees this trend reversing, and says that it expects June’s level will be the low point for the year, turning to moderate gains in the months ahead.
“In the coming months, the unusually high degree of risk is likely to remain a barrier in the way of a further strong leg up in the post-recession commodity price rally. That said, we remain of the view that some of the hit to global economic activity in the second quarter is likely to prove temporary, setting the stage for a modest rebound in commodity prices,” it says.
It also predicts continued modest gains for the next few years. Among the 18 commodity areas that that TD index tracks, it sees the most significant upside potential for the medium-term in oil, natural gas, uranium, cattle and hogs. It also predicts that precious metals will get solid support over the next few months, but are likely to be the weak sisters in 2012 and 2013.
IE
funny how it's trying to find support around 1295.
@qqqq (1:03)
Translation:
"BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH transitory BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH unexpected BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAHBLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH [insert non-existent MONEY PRINTING catch word here] BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH transitory BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH unexpected BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH"
Will Mr. Market get over 1308 by the close. That is what I wish to know.
HOGS bitchez...
Ooh. The final hour squeeze has started. The bears must have already taken their profits and hit the course.
News of the World phone-hacking whistleblower found dead
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/jul/18/news-of-the-world-sean-hoare
Gets weirder all the time...what a surprise.
Mel
I saw that earlier. Murdoch isn't that cold blooded. Or is he?
@AmenRa
We'll know for sure when the NYC firefighter widows discover they've been hacked.
His death will be seen as "transitory"...
Caused by more sophisticated catfood diets in 3rd world countries...
MURERock
there was supposed to be a "d" in there somewhere...
But it was already in use in grading this Administration's progress on the economy...
Is it me or did they do all that they could to close ten handles off the lows? What is it with the ten handle rule?
10 year has dropped below 2.9...well, either they are really smart or dumber than a bag of rocks.
b) bag of rocks. (We are short)
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