Gold/Silver Ratio (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 43.259
rev= 32.629; mid= 37.944
Ever since gold made that move during the week ending 5/6/11 the ratio has been trading in a triangle. The apex appears to be in three weeks. So gold is either about to take off or plummet. I would hazard a guess that CB's would prefer the latter. It's interesting that the EU emergency summit is around that time. It's above the weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Plus it's only above the SMA(21) and well below the other SMA's.
CYB (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 25.14
rev= 25.81; mid= 25.48
China's yuan is increasing. Might be due to all of the rate rises. Problem is overnight funding has dried up and SHIBOR is going through the roof. It's back above the SMA(21) and the 23.6% retrace. It's also confirming the bullish harami made last week.
40 comments:
futures -48 as I get up. I think I would like to see the economic wizard of the apocolypse let rates rise..I wonder of the older folks might start to spend if they were getting any return on their cash.
But there is the little problem of interest in the national debt.....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-23/china-money-rate-jumps-to-three-year-as-higher-reserve-ratio-squeezes-cash.html
"The one-year interest rate swap, the fixed cost needed to receive the floating seven-day repurchase rate, rose three basis points to 3.96 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 3.9750 percent, the highest level since Feb. 22. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
The yield on the 3.94 percent government bond due January 2021 climbed five basis points to 3.95 percent, according to the Interbank Funding Center.
China should raise interest rates to counter inflation, the China Securities Journal said in a front-page editorial today. An increase would push inflation-adjusted interest rates toward positive territory and drive funds back to banks, it said. Consumer prices rose 5.5 percent in May from a year earlier after having climbed 5.3 percent the previous month."
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31510813/#43500720
..the part I think is of interest is about what would have occured if Paulson didn't get his massive bailout..
http://www.rttnews.com/Cust/ArticleView.aspx?Id=1652289
...China manufacturing goes in for halftime...it appears the Chinese think more of tall Paul than the Bernank..
429...last week revised up 6k
we may have found our Steve Barry moment.
Young Rory McIlroy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6D7ReWQMGho
Classic!
everything getting murdered.
My name is Cane. Credit Cane.
Looks like the small bounce in EURCHF has ended.
BinT
The 1W & 2W SHIBOR are over 9% now.
Call the cops. The market is about to get murdered.
yes Amen
I think the Chinese leaders have some Volcker in them...and, again, they will maintain their manufacturing dominance and so aren't scared of slowing the economy..
..our leaders, otoh, seem completely lost...
I did it. I confess.
"Call the cops. The market is about to get murdered."
ha!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkyhvCdJ_vM
SMA(200)= 1262.60
EMA(200)= 1263.75
daily 3LB reversal= 1265.33
US Plans to Release 30 Million Barrels of Oil From Reserves....
Gnat and elephant...
Meanwhile we still seem to be opposed to new drilling...
...I think I will go spelunking later today and check the score this afternoon....
The market REALLY, REALLY, REALLY doesn't want another test of the 200 (SMA or EMA). Last time it only tested the EMA. Considering that the trend is turning down, I can't imagine how many sell orders are sitting just underneath the 200s.
BinT,
good choice on the Spelunking..
cv--
that McIlroy clip was great (too bad I started reading the Comments--Where do those 'people', even, come from?)
AAIP
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/debt-ceiling-talks-collapse
Debt Ceiling Talks Collapse
5 weeks ahead of the day when the debt ceiling "extend and pretend" plan ends, talks have broken down, and in order to hike Congressional Nielsen ratings, this time seemingly terminally. From Reuters: "U.S. Deficit-reduction talks led by Vice President Joe Biden have reached an "impasse," House of Representatives Majority Leader Eric Cantor said on Thursday, adding that he will not participate in the meeting of the bipartisan group that had been scheduled for later in the day. Cantor, a Republican, said the group has identified trillions of dollars in spending cuts, but had been unable to resolve a disagreement over tax increases Democrats sought. A Senate Democratic aide said the two sides "need to continue talking", and were continuing to talk. But an aide to Senator Jon Kyl, a Republican member of the Biden group, declined to comment on whether the senator would attend Thursday's scheduled meeting."
On your mark, get set, SELL!
Another version: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/key-republican-quits-budget-talks-over-impasse-2011-06-23
Key Republican quits budget talks over impasse
By Robert Schroeder
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- House Majority Leader Eric Cantor said Thursday he's quitting budget talks led by Vice President Joe Biden for now, citing an impasse over taxes. "The tax issue must be resolved before discussions can continue," Cantor said. Biden was set to convene the latest round of talks on Thursday. They are aimed at striking a deal to raise the debt ceiling in exchange for a long-term deficit-reduction plan.
SMOKE
AND
MIRRORS
My bias is to buy the oil here.
Looks like a 5wave move down complete (please see Sunday's) Silver and Gold.
Sideways/higher on CL seems like a decent bet now.
AT,
what do you think is smarter
Brent or WTI?
I more partial to WTI because I think the pervasive sentiment is that WTI is shit and that Brent is the new liquid gold.
I don't like how the SPX is trading. It appears to be waiting for something. Tight range since the open. Tested the EMA(200) again. So far it passed. Didn't test the SMA(200) which appears to be THE line in the sand.
Also, I don't think short sellers are going to cover today. They're in their foxholes and don't plan to give in.
seems every economic indicator this month is, well... bad (where's PrezO?)
B22, fyi... those SPXU calls I bot, looked at it a while ago and the bid/ask was 1.20/1.35, this morning it was 1.35/1.50, but no volume... LOL
10 Tax-Unfriendly States for Retirees 2011
Q's
yeah there's a lot less volume there than I'd personally prefer, good luck on those
I went long some Q's August 55 calls today and there are some individual stocks I may sell puts on before the week is out
AR, agree...
this week trying real hard to stay positive
Major 18's
Weekly...1244
downtrend started 5 weeks ago
Monthly... 1244
downtrend started this month, unless something drastic happens to move the SPX up about 40 points from these levels
watching the police chase a motorcycle in Forth Worth, TX, he's teasing them! Been going on for 20 minutes now...
Odd. Nothing indicates this market should be moving higher. The games people play.
AR, it's cycles man!
Trending cycles!
seems every economic indicator this month is, well... bad (where's PrezO?)
---
My guess is that he's on a fishing trip in the Indian Ocean... To see if he can find Bin Laden's body so we can kill him again...
cv, I was thinking the senators and representatives shouldn't vote on bills anymore, they should play a game, like croquet on the white house lawn, or maybe even water polo, something... winner takes all. This would get a different group type of people into our govt. It possibly couldn't make it worse than what we have now, would it? Would possibly be a hit reality show too! (the profits from the show could help reduce our deficit)
speaking of croquet, AR, is that a bullish croquet stick on the SPX weekly candles?
WHOA!, spx jumped (10pts in 4 mins) up to minor's 1278 in a flash!
QQQQ
TICK went nuts at 14:57. Started tagging 1100-1200-1300 in three minutes. There's no way that was accidental. Someone must be scared shitless for them to force the market higher at all costs.
I also remember back in 2008 or 2009 when the market was "forced" higher only to plummet even lower in the final five minutes.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/euimf-approve-greeces-austerity-plan-report-2011-06-23-1530430
E.U./IMF approve Greece's austerity plan: report
By Sue Chang
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Greece has secured the approval of E.U. and IMF inspectors for its latest five-year austerity plan after agreeing to additional tax hikes and spending cuts, Reuters reported on its website Thursday, citing sources familiar with the talks. "We have a deal," one of the sources told the news agency. However, a few technical details are expected to be finalized on Friday, according to Reuters.
So that was the reason for the forced attempt? Give me a break. Any more concessions and the Greek Parliament will not be able to get to work. The citizens will stalk them 24/7
Odd that commodities stayed lower during the head fake. Or maybe that was the correct reaction.
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