EURCHF (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 1.2036
rev= 1.3117; mid= 1.2577
Last week formed a bullish thrusting so the move down should continue. After reading that the Greece bailout is again in jeopardy the move may accelerate. It's below all SMA's but the MACD and Williams %R are moving higher. So there may be a small bounce before continuing lower.
USDJPY (weekly info)new low 80.00
trend=down
low= 80.00
rev= 84.05; mid= 82.03
Last week was the lowest weekly close in a long time. Even lower than the close post tsunami. BoJ hasn't intervened…yet. The DXY has some strength but not as much as previously when the market wanted safety. It's still below its 61.8% retrace and all SMA's.
IWM/SPY (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 0.6349
rev= 0.6013; mid= 0.6181
The proxy for liquidity is starting to indicate that it's drying up. It breached the triangle to the downside, closed below it's weekly 3LB mid and is still below its SMA(21). It's also below its monthly 3LB mid which adds to the weakness.
37 comments:
@ben (end of a coupla threads ago)...
These rules have been in place in generally the same form for quite some time now so far as I know. Still, I basically agree with you though, just because you meet the qualification doesn't mean you won't blow yourself up, maybe you are less likely.....maybe, though as I'm fond of saying, people are people, we seem to hear about millionaires going bust all the time right?
---
All I can say is that it wasn't "granny & her tea set" that:
- created a mountain of derivatives
- pushed thru 'liar loans'
- voted puppets into office in 2008
- requested, AND GOT, a bailout (at taxpayers expense) for the mess created
- were thus responsible for the fact that we now have an economy [cough] that cannot create jobs
- Is poised to 'up the ante' as we speak
So, yeah... We'd better make sure we 'protect ourselves' by PREVENTING 99% of people from participating... Let's leave it to the QUALIFIED 1%, and we'll all sleep better at night...
It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything.
-Joseph Stalin
---
Yeah... Thank goodness we have DIEBOLD nowadays to do all our "counting" for us...
Even better... DIEBOLD can keep track of "who voted for who"... Pretty soon, I'm sure they'll convince everyone (you know - for convenience sake), to just do it all over the internet...
So then they can hire crack teams of experts (like Thor), to sleuth out your IP number, and put you on the gulag watch list if you happened to side with the "unchosen" one...
Life Lessons from the Ultra Wealthy
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/life-lessons-from-the-ultra-wealthy/
"Oh me oh my! If I'd only had wonderful people like Barry Ritholtz around in my day, I could have accomplished so much more!"
...a glimpse of UPCOMING wave counts
Have those FIBO levels handy to fire off the trade when stops are reached...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/while-you-were-sleeping-nyse-boerse-crashed-again
AmenRa,
Zero Hedge had an interesting article about the doubling of the Shibor this morning. You might want to put this on your list of daily things to check.
http://www.shibor.org/shibor/web/html/index_e.html
...very interesting, the Chinese...
Or for Leftback, without the numbers to wade through:
http://www.shibor.org/shibor/web/ShiborJPG_e.jsp
CV,
Of course it wasn't Granny, but "granny" helped prompt the action in the first place:
http://www.sec.gov/answers/accred.htm
Note the year it was enacted CV.....social mood baby. Margin use amongst small investors was a staple during the "roaring twenties" and like always, the government puts in legislation that fights the last battle, the one that's already passed.
That Shibor is a new one to me. Thanks BinT.
Apple taking it in the buttocks.
Canary in the coal mine?
@ben
I doubt that was "granny" herself...
While I see your point... I also make the point that when anyone wants to bring up the "Roaring 20's", I'd conjecture that that was one of the first opportunities that anyone had to flee from the "Wilsonian/Jekyll-ian" dollar (hell - at least it was backed by gold then)...
While I could be wrong, can you dig me up the same type of fear of people jumping into the DJIA???
And besides... Why always the double standards...
They go to the end of the world to help you protect yourself from those EVIL precious metals...
Yet when stocks are soaring, the best thing they can come up with are warnings from Mr. Magoo about irrational exuberance...
Bucky has lost more than 90% of it's 1913 value...
That's the most consistent trend that I've seen...
I'm still trying to figure out what happened at 10:30 to cause the SPX to spike higher. The 1-min chart has a gap higher of more than $1 at 10:30.
..."the government puts in legislation that fights the last battle, the one that's already passed"
---
"The last official action of any government is to loot the Treasury"
-George Washington-
That's what the government does...
"The last official action of any government is to loot the Treasury"
Sorry, don't think this is a valid quote anymore.
Loot the treasury of what? A bunch of promises backed by other promises which are all in fact promises to do NOTHING....
plenty of debt, but I've not heard of anyone looting for debt.
@AR, gap @ 10:20 same, (sh)it happens...
AT,re aapl,wasn't there a slew of analysts that put up to $450-$480 price targets on it a couple of months ago? figures...
speaking of taking it in the buttocks, then LNKD is getting another enema today! I'm liquidating... 1 more contract to go... them fookers, forgot to check "all-or-none"... pfft
Account: xxxx-9355 Your Day Sell to close order for 2 LNKD Aug 20 '11 $50 Put at a limit price of $3.5 was partially executed at $3.5. There are 1 contracts were executed, 1 contracts are still open. See order # 1945 for details
covered my P shorts bot last week, beer bucks
TBT calls... bleh
so what does all this "shibor" stuff mean to the average guy?
some electric car stuff...
Revenge of the electric car
The years 1899 and 1900 were the high point of electric cars in America, as they outsold all other types of cars.
SPX @ 1278, minor 18's resistance... 18% chance we close below, 81% we close above, 1% error... (really I have no idea)
@ben22
Sorry, don't think this is a valid quote anymore.
Loot the treasury of what? A bunch of promises backed by other promises which are all in fact promises to do NOTHING
---
Are you kidding me?
Just because they're "debt notes" doesn't mean they can't help you LOOT in the process...
It's about as easy as it could possibly be...
It's called:
- TARP
- banker bonuses
- FASB rules changes
- FrankedDodd
All to do what?
Simply 'buy time'... Believe you me, these programs aren't being put out there for anything else except to BUY TIME...
Time for the bankers themselves to print a bunch of clownbux for free...
- 1/3rd of it goes to towards the 'whack a mole' process of trying to make markets appear that they're still functioning...
- 1/3rd goes to shorting "paper markets" in essential commodities & PM's
- 1/3rd goes to accumulating those commodities (with the other hand)
The ratios might be off but you get the point...
The longer the game goes on (iow - as long as they can keep the 'sheeple' distracted), the longer they have time to basically own as much as they want for free...
Someday, the "paper" on all that debt will collapse the paper system...
Meanwhile, they'll have all they need (in terms of raw goods), that commerce will have to go through them again - Here, I'm talking about "individual" players [who won't mind bankrupting the corporation banks when the time comes]... In the aftermath, they'll all just re-assemble & start over...
It's really quite brilliant if you ask me...
In simple terms... It's like CV's Nickles...
Nobody can walk into a store or bank and get $10,000 (or whatever) of nickles...
But every week, over a long time, you can regularly exchange $20 to $200, to whatever...
If the game goes on long enough (which you kind of hope it does), you have a lot of nickles...
...and hell... It's WIN/WIN...
Because if Prechters wet dream of Dow 400 comes true, and bucky goes to the moon, you still own BUCKY (just in a different way)...
Instead, if hyperinflation occurs (and copper prices either skyrocket during a brief window)... Or, after they do 'Rentenmark' for "Reichmark' exchange, your Cu ought to be more valuable after a re-valuation of your domestic currency...
Worse comes to worse?
You use it as either recognizeable barter (in a 2nd economy), or sell it on the black market...
... but I'm just an idiot, so don't listen to me...
Oh... & thanks for reminding me that what's at stake are "A bunch of promises backed by other promises which are all in fact promises to do NOTHING",
Exactly... & now I return everyone to trading those for SPY contracts...
I hope you do so well as to gain the honor of subjecting those gains to taxes (you know - so this wonderful system will perpetuate and continue to foster jobs, innovation, & productivity)...
CV, since I travel alot, I have a ton of cd's. One day, this song started playing, the long version, almost twice as long, but anyway, and don't take it the wrong way, and I don't know why, but it reminds me of you. Really, I mean it in a good way so don't go ballistic on me :)
Cv,
the comment stands, what Washington could envision with treasury due to what was "money" at that time has no reality today.
Also, you're really still railing on that TARP money was issued so banks would use 1/3, or whatever number you want to make up, to short precious metals?
Probably a good idea to put that to rest at this point, their trading records in the last several quarters running basically make that idea null and void, as do their financial statements.
Andy,
Thanks for your charts. Very much enjoyed the look you give for a set up failed H&S, and wow, look here, people at Dan's board are talking about the minimum measuring targets to the downside for said H&S! Who would have guessed that?
So at minimum you are on the right track.
@ben
Also, you're really still railing on that TARP money was issued so banks would use 1/3, or whatever number you want to make up, to short precious metals?
Probably a good idea to put that to rest at this point
---
No - you're missing what I'm saying... This is what I'm saying... (11:53)
'Here, I'm talking about "individual" players [who won't mind bankrupting the corporation banks when the time comes]... In the aftermath, they'll all just re-assemble & start over...'
If anyone would take about 2 seconds to understand anything... THIS ISN'T ABOUT THE FOOKING BANKS & THEIR BALANCE SHEETS...
It's about the high placed individuals who draw salaries & bonuses FROM a banking system that still alive...
---
If you ran a company (any company), and you KNEW it was going to go down the tubes (but you were drawing a fat salary - which you could do ANYTHING with):
- Hide it offshore
- Buy luxury property
- fleets of cars
- expensive jewelry
- expensive art
- diversify to various currencies
- warehouse raw goods
- buy mines
- buy equipment
- buy rental property
- buy bricks upon bricks of precious metals
- buy yachts
- fund a personal army
Basically - do what a DRUG LORD would do...
Wouldn't you just hang around (as long as the system was paying you to do so, and allowing you the time to incrementally accumulate these things)? Further, wouldn't you just absolutely LOOT the system in a way to accumulate these things as quickly as possible - especially when the end game became evident?
I suppose some would not let their conscience do such things, but I doubt the MEGA MEGA rich have much conscience...
---
So if you'll stop thinking of BANKS as 'entities', and start thinking of them as 'shell corporations' for a VERY FEW elite owners, who, after they have extracted as much PHYSICAL wealth out of the company as possible, then simply jump ship and go hide on their island for awhile until some new band of politically motivated factions get the bright idea that they want to start a new country somewhere...
It's the way it's always been since the beginning of time...
And the answer to your NEXT question (about 'clawbacks')... I answer (in my best 'Jim Mora')...
"CLAWBACKS"???
Yeah right... Let's go talk to Dick Fuld & Anthony Mozillo about those...
& I told you not to use those "ratios" as gospel when I said this
'The ratios might be off but you get the point...
In fact... RATIOS isn't probably even the right word...
Probably - 'legs of the stool' is more accurate... (which basically represents any foundation for an operation)...
---
Again... How the hell do I know if it's a plan (or it will work)?... It's just a hypothesis of mine...
And how could you possibly say that it DOESN'T EXIST??? Even if it never did, I just made it up and published it, so now it DOES exist...
Frankly...
Since it is OBVIOUS (to you - anyway), that this is all just a fantasy in CV's head, and that not a Rockefeller, Dimon, Rothschild's, or Blankfein EVER thought about it (because as we all know, they spend their time 24/7 thinking about 'philanthropy', and ways to make trading FIAT NOTES more FAIR for E-Trade babies...
Well - if it WAS ME & ONLY ME who has this concept...
Wanna know what my NEXT MOVE would be??? I doubt you're curious (but I'll entertain myself by telling you)...
I'd focus (for about the next 12-18 months) AWAY from PM's...
- I'd try to use what might amount to a dollar rally (on a potential Euro shake-up & potential flight to safety in US equity markets), to paint the charts with a big assed SIDEWAYS move trading range that would point to an apex that happened AFTER the 2012 elections...
The next time the dollar starts downwards, I'd try to stay as far from PM's as possible (and instead, spread it out over incremental running back and forth across the entire commodity space (from lumber, to crude, to cotton, wheat, sugar, corn, whatever)...
After all... You can always blame that stuff on the WEATHER...
That way, if PM's can stay range bound all the way thru January '13, there will be time to either Obama (or other puppet of choice) into his/her seat... And decide if the Bernank is going to be the actual bagholder, or if they instead bestow the honor on Janet Yellen or someone...
Those, are the parts of this that nobody can control... Not that nobody will try...
note to self... looks like I got out of LNKD at the right time, it exploded (lol) from 60 to 63.75, 5 min chart formed a perfect cup-n-handle today, (handle forming now)?
sad story...
The Worst Trade in History. Say you owned 10% of Apple (AAPL) and you sold it for $800 in 1976. What would that stake be worth today?
Try $22 billion. That is the harsh reality that Ron Wayne, 76, faces every morning when he wakes up, one of the three original founders of the consumer electronics giant. Ron first met Steve Jobs when he was a spritely 21 year old marketing guy at Atari, the inventor of the hugely successful “Pong” video arcade game.
Ron dumped his shares when he became convinced that Steve Jobs’ reckless spending was going to drive the nascent start up into the ground, and he wanted to protect his assets in a future bankruptcy. Co-founders Jobs and Steve Wozniak kept their original 45% ownership. Today Job’s 0.5% ownership is worth $1.5 billion, while the Woz’s share remains undisclosed. Ron designed the company’s original logo and wrote the manual for the Apple 1 computer, which boasted all of 8,000 bytes of RAM (which is 0.008 megabytes to you non-techies).
Today, Ron is living off of a meager monthly social security check in remote Pahrump, Nevada, about as far out in the middle of nowhere you can get, where he can occasionally be seen playing the penny slots.
Of course... while I was distracting all you chart watchers with the idea that PM's are going nowhere... & doing what I could to keep them down in the paper markets...
I'd be 'ever so gradually' buying up physical supply...
By the time they're ready to rise again... I'd hope that equities had bottomed as well... Then, as equities rose, so wouold the PM's hand in hand... All would be at the expense of the dollar...
In then end... You WOW me with your 40% gain in NFLX shares (25% came at the expense of the currency)...
I 'not so wow' you with my cold coins, that appeciated maybe 30% during the same time...
You cash out your NFLX (and pay your capital gains taxes)...
I just stick my new gold bars in the vault...
Then you laugh at me again when everything tanks again, and you tell me how you top ticked & bottom ticked everything (unless you didn't)...
& I congratulate you on your VERY VALUABLE linen notes that buy you 75% of the box of Cheerios, tank of gas, or COMCAST bill than they did today...
@QQQQ
What's 'sadder' to me is to think of all the folks who read that story, and use it as a blind reason to simply "hold stocks for the long run"...
It's like the kid from the ghetto who dreams of being Michael Jordan...
There's probably more chance of being 'Garp' and having an airplane flying into your house, than to have experienced that chance...
People always want to believe in the fairy tale...
Anyway...
I just express all these crazy ideas because I've come to either of the two conclusions:
- Either the bankers, politicians, & markets are REALLY REALLY stupid...
or
- somebody [not you] is doing all they can to tilt the playing field in their favor [not yours]...
& since I basically think that most could be considered 'criminal' (but not necessarily STUPID)... I'm forced, by default, to lean towards the latter scenario...
It just appeals to my 'sensibilities', that (using a different situation) THE WARREN COMMISSION reportings probably didn't tell the real story...
But if it makes people more comfortable to take that at face value (and continue putting coins into the big slot machine as they go)... Then BLESS their comfort...
The DXY and EURUSD have been flat damn near all day and yet the bulls are continuing to try and push this market higher. If this keeps up then this will be the lowest volume day since 4/25/11.
CV,
I don't have the time right now to go through all the speculation there, and why blame the weather when you could just blame the Fed right?
quickly though, in your NFLX/gold example, it's not that simple:
As I'm to understand the IRS tax code the tax ramifications of selling physical gold aren't too different from that of NFLX common stock, in fact, they are worse.
I have to double check the rules but if you hold gold 3 years or longer you pay 20% in cap gains tax on any realized gain. In contrast, stocks are subject to only a 15% capital gain for any investments held 12 months or more, so you get more favorable tax treatment with only a 1/3 holding period requirement vs. gold.
Short term gains on physical gold are taxed at ordinary income under three years, stocks are taxed ordinary income under 12 months only.
further, you can't just say "I throw it in the vault" without mentioning storage costs and then you have to face the reality that your transaction costs on both the buy and sell side for any meaningful amount of PM's is going to far exceed that of stocks so in a real comparison of what's net out, that should at least be mentioned.
qqqq:
Yeah, that was a bad trade...
What a dumbass. If you were concerned about a bankruptcy affecting you, hold the shares in some LLC. Protect your shares that way.
Ugh.
That's a bad story.
SPX last few days appears to be making the falling three method pattern. A long down day followed by three small days that are within the body of the long day. The final day opens higher but then closes lower than the first long day.
AR, not many trading days left in the qtr. Maybe we see a run-up to lessen the loss... just thinking outloud.
Still looking for my next set up. Only holding a few TBT calls for a small loss as of today.
Almost bot puts on XRX and HNR today... held back though. Tomorrows another day! Oh, almost bot LNKD calls when I saw that c-in-h earlier, if it would have been on a quality stock, I probably would have.
Hey, Lefty,
IF the Greeks vote NYET tomorrow on the new and improved government, and by association, 5 year plan, what do you plan to do?
QQQQ
End of quarter and end of QE2. A long weekend follows. I wondering who will be willing to hold over that weekend. They probably will hedge though.
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