A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
"Just got paid, it's Friday Night. The party is jumpin' and we're feelin' right."
Creditcane™: Tick tock. Tick tock. June 30th approaches.
SPXBearish long day (was yesterday a hanging man?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(144) & SMA(21). Failing trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Tested and failed the 76.4% retrace (1277.73). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1265.33). QE2infinity. The games people try to play.
DXYBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Tested and held SMA(89). Held its 23.6% retrace (74.73). Held its weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 73.78).
VIXBullish long day (further confirming hammer & double bottom). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (20.77). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 18.26). Escaped back to the "fear" zone.
GOLDBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1578.30). Failed SMA(55). Failed its 23.6% retrace (1515.29). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.30). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.
EURUSDBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(89). Failing its 76.4% retrace (1.4304). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4580).
JNKDark cloud cover day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace (38.59). Failed its 38.2% retrace (39.48). Failing trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.88).
10YR YIELDSpinning top day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace (28.47). Still below the upper trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 30.99).
WTIBearish short day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Failing its 85.4% retrace (93.07). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 97.71).
SILVERBearish long day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the upper trend line. Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (35.28). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 38.30). "You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"
BKXBearish long day (failed to confirm hammer). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 76.4% retrace (47.07). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 47.73).
HYG/LQDBearish engulfing day. No test of 0.0% retrace (0.7899). Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed its 23.6% retrace (0.8050). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7961).
EURCHFBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (1.1809). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2010).
WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011
24 comments:
SPX had a weekly 3LB confirmation of the reversal down from 6/10/11.
Oh I guess I f***e up (by posting on the last threa*)...
Here it was...
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2011/06/morning-corner-62411.html?showComment=1308958534833#c2060753748355381459
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Maybe more important (charts 'pointing the way') last year...
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/search?q=dumpster&updated-max=2010-03-04T08%3A22%3A00-05%3A00&max-results=20
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http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_uq2KcmM6MLM/S4-_kFMi1RI/AAAAAAAAAcw/F9S7euZK7Tk/s1600-h/SPX_30min_3410.JPG
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_uq2KcmM6MLM/S4_AYPM9ikI/AAAAAAAAAc4/tXD4qUDFAUM/s1600-h/SPX_SThypothesis.JPG
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But none of you MF geniuses seem to give a friggin shizz...
ESPECIALLY AFTER a few months later I gave everyone a 'thumbs up' on SILVER (which then went 3x)...
Umm... WANNA KNO WHAT CV THINKS NOW?
Prolly not!
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/06/michael-hudson-whither-greece-without-a-national-referendum-iceland-style-eu-dictates-cannot-be-binding.html
Michael Hudson: Whither Greece? Without a National Referendum Iceland-Style, EU Dictates Cannot be Binding
quote:
Finance has become the 21st century’s preferred mode of warfare. It’s aim is to appropriate the land and public infrastructure for its own power elites. Achieving this end financially, by imposing debt peonage on subject populations, avoids the sacrifice of life by the aggressor power – but only as long as subject debtor countries accept their burden voluntarily. If there is no referendum, the national economy cannot be held liable to pay the debts owed even to “senior” creditors: the IMF and ECB. Assets that are privatized at foreign bank insistence can be renationalized. And just as nations under military attack can sue, so Greece can sue for the devastation caused by austerity – the lost employment, lost output, lost population, capital flight.
The Greek economy will not end up with the proceeds of any ECB “bailout.” The banks will get the money. They would like to turn around and lend it out afresh to the buyers of the land, monopolies and other properties that Greece is being told to privatize. The user fees they collect (no doubt raising charges in the process, to cover the interest and pay themselves the usual salary jumps on privatized property) will be paid out as interest. Is this not like military tribute?
Margret Thatcher used to say “There is no alternative” (TINA). But of course there is. Greece can simply opt out of this giveaway of assets and economic privilege to creditors.
cont'd...
Only a referendum can commit the Greek government to repay new debts imposed under austerity. Only a referendum can prevent property that is privatized from being re-nationalized. Such a transfer is not legitimate under commonly accepted ideas of political and economic democracy. And in any event, a rent-tax can recapture for the Greek economy what the financial aggressors are trying to seize.
meh... WTF... (cv is 'actually' mostly H.A.P.P.Y - in spite of whatcha all think)...
That's why this is all funny 2 me :-)...
hav a nice week'en...
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Wanna anecdote?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gS5xEVXWgpA
(I kik'd this yesterday... very succeful... u NEVER kno what PEEPS emotion 2... until u TRY...don't cha kno)... :-)
Amen Ra,
Hudson is a quality Thinker, and, I like, quite, most of his stuff..
though, here: "...Achieving this end financially, by imposing debt peonage on subject populations, avoids the sacrifice of life by the aggressor power..."
I'm not so sure I agree..
esp., here: "...avoids the sacrifice of life by the aggressor power..."
rather, I'd be noting that 'the Aggressor Powers' are, rather, sacrificing the lives, they think they can, on other Fronts, while beggaring 'their own' populations, Financially, to the maximum extent 'they think they can away with'...
other than that, yes, the 'Greeks', like every other population deluded by CBs, and their Minions, have to be willingly, conscious, or not, a Party to their own Demise--It has, ever, been such..
AAIP
another good Art.
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php/19098-Global-Monetary-Meltdown-Part-I-The-accident-that-won-t-wait-to-happen-Eric-Janszen?p=195305
ibid.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/24/america-pregnant-women-murder-charges
Outcry in America as pregnant women who lose babies face murder charges
Women's rights campaigners see the creeping criminalisation of pregnant women as a new front in the culture wars over abortion
Women are being charged with murder if babies are stillborn. Good old USA
Ok. Interesting links to read here and elsewhere.
Need to catch up on stuff.
I'm wrecking my office this weekend .... love getting rid of shit and replacing it with new shit. Keepin' the economy humming....
The Greek issue really is sort of conundrum.
On the one hand, you have a group of people who seem incapable or unwilling to enforce their tax scheme to collect revenue but seem happy for their government to spend money they don't have.
So, shame on the Greeks.
On the other hand, you've got banks and other sovereigns who have been happily lending these folks money for many years--lending money to a fiscally irresponsible group.
So, shame on the Lenders.
The reality is that both side need to "give up" something here. The Lenders need to take massive losses on the Debt they've issued and the Greeks need to undergo some fiscal reform, namely collecting the taxes that are owed or spend less money. Selling off national treasures should be the last resort.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/money-market-fund-madness/
Jim Grant notes that some major MM funds have pretty huge exposure to Euro bank paper.
I guess this is why Bennie B and Turbo Timmy are very "concerned" over the Greek crisis ....
@Andy:
The more likely outcome is that the lenders will not give anything up. They will coerce the central bank and other supra-nationals (and the countries that fund the supra-nationals) to purchase their loan books at par.
The banks have to be let off the hook because, you know, the economy can't grow unless a bunch of banks are busy making reckless or otherwise uneconomical loans.
Ra,
From your article on the women/babies..the last lines are the key ones:
"At least 38 of the 50 states across America have introduced foetal homicide laws that were intended to protect pregnant women and their unborn children from violent attacks by third parties – usually abusive male partners – but are increasingly being turned by renegade prosecutors against the women themselves."
The last line bears repeating... "but are increasingly being turned by renegade prosecutors against the women themselves."
One of the things I've learned is that there are three ways for any law to be interpreted:
a) from the point of view of a potential 'defendant'
b) the point of view of a prosecutor, even a renegade/ambitious one
c) the point of view of a "Court" (Judge/Justices)
In the short to medium term, the POV of the prosecutor is far and away the most important one. "Ultimately," it will depend on an appellate or supreme court somewhere...but in practical terms, if a prosecutor decides you've done something "wrong," then your life is screwed for at least several years.
Prosecutors hold an incredible amount of power. It's the ugly truth behind our system of justice.
Matthew@10.39...
Sadly, you're probably right. This one 'feels' a little bit different, though, because we're dealing with a much broader mix of lenders and a group of people who seem capable of just letting the place burn.
What's really bad is that this is just some tiny country causing these ripples....there are bigger ones out there in the same boat.
I suppose China will have to bail all of us out. ha ha.
Who is Gary Johnson?
Some dude running for President that I would vote for and support.
http://reason.com/archives/2011/06/23/who-is-gary-johnson
Too bad he doesn't "look" and "sound" like a politician....no shot.
from Markit News and Commentary:
But that is not the only doubt that the CDS markets are grappling with. The extent and form of private sector participation in the proposed bailout are still not clear. It seems that there will be an “informal and voluntary” rollover of debt similar to the Vienna Initiative. Nichola Sarkozy and other European leaders have said today that they have been in discussion with financial institutions about a rollover, and there will be “no difficulties or concerns”, according to Sarkozy. But it remains to be seen just how “voluntary” this rollover is, and how they will incentivise bondholders to participate. The answers to these questions are crucial for the CDS market and will influence spread direction.
It should also be remembered that the total net notional outstanding for Greek sovereign CDS is just over EUR5 billion, and has been falling for some time. This is small beer compared to the government bond market. Unfortunately there have been several media reports that have been quoting the misleading gross notional figure; the lessons of the Lehman Brothers credit event auction clearly haven’t been learnt.
China, on the other hand, has seen a considerable increase in its CDS net notional, particularly in recent months. It is now the 10th largest sovereign in terms of CDS exposure, according to DTCC figures. The sovereign’s spreads have also widened in recent weeks, though they are nowhere near the levels they reached in the darkest days of the recession. Premier Jiabao declared victory over inflation in a FT op-ed today. Perhaps he is right, but the activity in the CDS market suggests that the Chinese economy faces more than one challenge in the months and years ahead.
Good chart showing gross and net notional CDS values: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/draghi/CDS%20DTCC%20Update_1.jpg
The fetal homicide laws are inconsistent with abortion laws. If killing a fetus is illegal for an abusive husband, it is recognition that the fetus is a life (after all, you can't murder something that is not a life). If that is the case, then abortion is murder.
They need to reconcile the two laws, as they are mutually exclusive.
...Can We Trust You?
The credit crisis hit in 2008 largely because American banks lost trust in one another. Specifically, top economists say that each bank had so much bad debt on its books (in the form of mortgage backed securities and derivatives which worth the paper they were written on) which made them essentially insolvent that they assumed that all of the other banks must be in a similar situation … so they stopped lending to each other.
This drove the price which banks charged each other for loans (libor) skyrocket, and the whole credit market froze up.
The same thing is now happening in China. As ZeroHedge reports, Chinese interbank lending is freezing up and “shibor” – the prize which Chinese banks charge each other for loans – is skyrocketing....
from Washington's Blog, via TBP..
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/why-is-the-chinese-economy-sputtering/
AAIP
AR,
nice 'shibor'-work, you were the 1st, I've seen, to mention it..
AAIP
BinT posted a link from zerohedge which showed SHIBOR going vertical. I now go the SHIBOR website to check their rates.
How quickly the winds change. Now the MSM is saying since the SPX held its 200MA the bulls have a chance to climb the wall of worry: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/25/us-markets-stocks-idUSTRE75512M20110625
Bulls ready to charge into a wall of worry
Give me a f'in break
AR, where did you find that CDS image?
QQQQ
Here: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/debunking-some-myths-about-greek-cds-contagion-threat
Thx, just found it and was about to post the link, it was quite a few days ago... LOL
thx again
QQQQ
That's why Italy and Spain are so dangerous. They have $25B & $18B respectively of CDS notional. That doesn't include government bonds.
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