TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 8.5.10

Morning Audibles 8.5.10 - It's Just a Shot Away

Oh, a storm is threat'ning

My very life today

If I don't get some shelter

Oh yeah, I'm gonna fade away

War, children, it's just a shot away

It's just a shot away

War, children, it's just a shot away

It's just a shot away

Ooh, see the fire is sweepin'

Our very street today

Burns like a red coal carpet

Mad bull lost its way

Here are a few other occasions, in 2010, that the MAD BULL lost its way - (notice the blue circle & associated low volume days - contrast that with the red circles/huge volume)...

And what does that mean for the 10yy? Look where the yield was during previous low volume equity melt-ups... Triple bottom at present... Is there such a thing?

285 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 285 of 285 Newer› Newest»

McFearless said...: CV,

I have been working very hard lately in the how I apply fibo analysis to build a proper grid. I would suggest this book to anyone that does not have it:

http://www.buzzillions.com/reviews/fibonacci-analysis-reviews; August 5, 2010 at 2:18 PM
Leftback said...: Agreed.

Nothing to get long for here, not until we see the KT.
That's what we would need to really get long in size.

Hours Worked is the key tomorrow, the rest of NFP is all gamed.
Mr Market barely looks at the headline number now b/c of B/D.

Just taking a peek at bonds, back in a few.; August 5, 2010 at 2:18 PM
karen said...: rolling my eyes in a big way..

ben, looks like we are stuck at 1124?? LOL.. do you have a timeframe on your 1128? at least you are having fun, not to mention making some change : ); August 5, 2010 at 2:21 PM
Leftback said...: 10y at 2,90 and 2s10s at 236 bps.
Remember when that was almost 300?

Bond market is not expecting a face ripper.; August 5, 2010 at 2:21 PM
Leftback said...: Trader Talk, Karen.; August 5, 2010 at 2:22 PM
McFearless said...: karen,

no, no time frame, I'll cut it at break-even or slightly below if we dont' meet it today and I'll survive to come back and try again tomorrow.

once I find my entries I usually focus more on price objective than a timing objective.; August 5, 2010 at 2:23 PM
CV said...: Making some "Change"?

Would that be anything like "Change you can believe in?" :-); August 5, 2010 at 2:26 PM
CV said...: all I can see right now are the BOTs battling it out at 112.68 (50% FIBO) on SPY that my last chart illustrated...; August 5, 2010 at 2:27 PM
karen said...: see? breakingnews picked this up a long time ago:

BloombergNow

#Senate Clears $26 Billion to Help States Keep #Teachers, Pay #Medicaid Bills http://bit.ly/aZLO8x; August 5, 2010 at 2:31 PM
CV said...: @karen (2:31)

Great news...

That "assures" us that we'll have a continuous stream of FRANKLIN 411's on board to teach us all the VIRTUES of Keynesian economics...; August 5, 2010 at 2:35 PM
karen said...: a series of topstep tweets.. will post in order received:

mrtopstep

#futures $ES_F [12:41:07 PM]: SPU $GS just bot 300 up to 1120.50 area [12:41:38 PM]: they covering? $$GS

[12:47:43 PM]: many customers too hard to tell [12:49:28 PM]: GS still buyin have to wonder why buy during lunch time???

tradingfills [12:50:55 PM]: GS up to 700 bot 1121area hi tradingfills [12:52:03 PM]: total 800; August 5, 2010 at 2:35 PM
McFearless said...: CV,

when your blog gets big time, promise me you won't add pop up ads that cover up your posts.; August 5, 2010 at 2:36 PM
CV said...: @mCf

I'm trying as hard as possible to act like an IMBECILE on an hourly basis so that not enough people ever show up that would ever WARRANT the notion of ADVERTISING...

If fact... You people better stop making intelligent comments...

Or, at least, intersperse them with some more DAFT elements...; August 5, 2010 at 2:39 PM
karen said...: more mrtopstep:

$GS[09:22:42 AM] GS Desk usually moves at lunch, when NYC is out with a martini.

And yes, they can sell 1k to buy 4k in a heatbeat, but normally not in August.; August 5, 2010 at 2:40 PM
McFearless said...: I always find the big public PIMCO comments noteworthy/interesting.

bloomberg rag had BG on the cover recently talking about his venture back into equities and the new ETF's they have, the 7 (or was it 9) monitors that surround his trading desk and his demand for silence on the trading floor.

given that backdrop, consider El Erian:

Mr El-Erian, who helps manage more than $1 trillion in assets, warned that action needed be taken quickly to prevent a economic slowdown.

Mr El-Erian said that downward pressure on prices – translating into a rise in real borrowing costs – was already encouraging companies to accumulate cash "in a way that was unthinkable just two years ago", while individuals were being driven to save.

I suspect it's hardly an economic slowdown they are concerned about but the billions of dollars that are now at risk in equities, not to mention a reputation that would then twice be soiled by going "outside the box"; August 5, 2010 at 2:41 PM
McFearless said...: C,

ha! well, I suppose that would avoid the ads, but I know this is a lot of work for you to keep going so I certainly wouldn't mind seeing you get something out of it for your time and effort, I just want to be able to read the posts.; August 5, 2010 at 2:42 PM
karen said...: a quick take: "If FXI manages to go above our key trigger "C" (at $47.5) go long global equities, oil, and commodities."

http://gicharts.blogspot.com/2010/08/ishares-ftse-xinhua-china-25-index-etf.html; August 5, 2010 at 2:47 PM
CV said...: @McF

I like to keep it simple...

Why bother chasing after a bunch of BENJAMINS (bernankes) when they won't be worth zilch in about a decade?

As long as my fish and plants are growing... I'm fine...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uf5rIuJPTt0; August 5, 2010 at 2:48 PM
McFearless said...: above 47.50 go long, lol? is that for real?

it would seem the author doesn't understand that FXI isn't truly reflective of China, and 47.5 is still like a lifetime from here btw.; August 5, 2010 at 2:52 PM
McFearless said...: have you eaten any of those fish yet?; August 5, 2010 at 2:53 PM
CV said...: @McF

No... It's only FISH HUSBANDRY at this point...

No eatin' fish until 10 more months...

BTW...MUTT (aka franklin420)...

I found this especially for you...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3IuHMxFHjQ&feature=related; August 5, 2010 at 2:55 PM
karen said...: i'm about to lose it:

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/housing-shortage-coming.html; August 5, 2010 at 3:02 PM
CV said...: Talk about not seeing the forest from the trees...

"Longer-term demographics support this theory, says Ross DeVol, the executive director of economic research at the Milken Institute, an independent think tank in Santa Monica, Calif. The U.S. is adding only about 600,000 housing units a year now, and the long-term growth in new households is 1.3 million to 1.4 million per year, DeVol says."; August 5, 2010 at 3:09 PM
karen said...: "So without debt growth, what is going to get the revenue trajectory on track again? Maybe, just maybe, the thing to do is let the deleveraging/saving/expense cutting process take place. Just as forest fires are a part of the natural life cycle of forests, so is the cleansing and seeding process of an economic downturn."

http://www.annaly.com/blog/; August 5, 2010 at 3:10 PM
McFearless said...: well, maybe if markets and the economy obeyed the laws of physics demographics would in fact be that important, but this claim is very simple to refute, as I've done countless times.; August 5, 2010 at 3:11 PM
CV said...: People get PAID for this?

(executive director of economic research)...

Is that, like, a "community organizer/POTUS" kind of job?; August 5, 2010 at 3:11 PM
McFearless said...: "So without debt growth, what is going to get the revenue trajectory on track again?"

that statement as a stand-alone must make one smile. After all, the vast majority of debt that expands these days is of the non-self liquidating variety, in which case, it's hilarious to use it in relation with revenue trajectory.

whether the fed and the government likes it or not, the "natural cycle" is going to happen regardless of what "they" do.; August 5, 2010 at 3:13 PM
karen said...: Boeing loses 26 jet orders; DAE reduces order
3:11 PM ET 8/5/10 | Marketwatch; August 5, 2010 at 3:17 PM
CV said...: "So without debt growth, what is going to get the revenue trajectory on track again?"

Wait... I have an answer for that...

It's DOUBLE SECRET debt growth...

That's where DEBT grows, but it's not reported (under the guise of):

- QE
- FASB modifications
- cash for clunkers
- FINREG
- mortgage forgiveness
- QE2

Or any other "nominated" agenda of Obamanomics; August 5, 2010 at 3:17 PM
karen said...: nothing bullish about the bac chart..; August 5, 2010 at 3:18 PM
karen said...: briefing.com: Participation remains paltry. In turn, trading volume is very light at less than 600 million shares on the NYSE. Though low-volume trade has been a frequent theme for the past several weeks, the lack of interest in the latest sessions is likely linked to caution among traders ahead of the July nonfarm payrolls report, which is due tomorrow morning.; August 5, 2010 at 3:20 PM
CV said...: @karen

Boeing?

I wonder why it wasn't AIRBUS...

http://www.snopes.com/photos/airplane/etihad.asp; August 5, 2010 at 3:20 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

but note, despite the fact that for two years the CFO at BA would hype the massive backlog in orders as a positive, on the last two earnings calls the recent canceled orders were...

a positive!; August 5, 2010 at 3:20 PM
Leftback said...: To be pedantic, a pull-back to the 200 DMA seems like something that Mr Market might like to do after the DEATH CROSS and the subsequent pop off the lows. The 200 DMA is somewhere around the KT, I think.; August 5, 2010 at 3:22 PM
Bob Pisani said...: @McF

here on the floor, equity traders are taking that as a positive...; August 5, 2010 at 3:24 PM
Leftback said...: Karen

I have been watching C and BAC for two days and they stink. Meredith was poking around in the entrails of their earnings statements lately and what she said basically was that they were borrowing from future earnings.

Housing shortage??? ROTFLMAO....; August 5, 2010 at 3:25 PM
karen said...: as for the 100 sma.. depends on whether you are running a weekly or daily, of course.. the daily is smack above us at 1126.61 today..
on a weekly chart it is 1105 and still pointing down.; August 5, 2010 at 3:27 PM
arbitrage789 said...: LB @ 3:25

"I have been watching C and BAC for two days and they stink".

. . . . . . . . . . .

Whatever happened to "we"...?

A little downsizing, perhaps?; August 5, 2010 at 3:30 PM
CV said...: @LB

ROTF(of double wide trailer)LMAO; August 5, 2010 at 3:33 PM
McFearless said...: alright, I gotta roll to this show. Hopefully i can snap some decent picks, we'll see how many fluids I have before I head in though.

closing out the SSO before i go, tiny profit, but still a profit.; August 5, 2010 at 3:35 PM
Leftback said...: The fixed income group are on vacation.

Bond hedging has been rather slow of late here at Schadenfreude [since a massively profitable] trade that we put on while in Europe, so LB has been looking at things on the equity side. Holding longs for the time being but smelling some profit taking here.; August 5, 2010 at 3:35 PM
karen said...: DL, he is apparently too busy trading to bother with linguistic personage.; August 5, 2010 at 3:36 PM
Obama said...: @McF

I'm going to raise the taxes on that profit to 300%; August 5, 2010 at 3:37 PM
Leftback said...: LB loves to short the laggards on a flat day. Sooner or later they seem to go in the DUMPSTER.

Team Macro Man thinks RUBBER BAND time for bond yields, KAREN thinks 10y to break lower. LB is with KAREN on this. Not a big believer in triple bottoms... not natural, is it?

LB imagines that KAREN's charts always have a PERFECT BOTTOM.; August 5, 2010 at 3:38 PM
karen said...: what did andy accuse me of years ago? not name dropping but something close.. LOL.. LB, my eyes have come loose from rolling them left to right.. i'll attempt the other direction for a bit.; August 5, 2010 at 3:40 PM
Leftback said...: Small caps and banks are soggy....
Generally those are the growthiest stocks, in a recovery.

New Normal catching on.
KAREN's RECOVERYLESS RECOVERY™ is well underway.

Mr Market wants to KISS the KT, I am convinced of it.
I mean, can you blame him?; August 5, 2010 at 3:41 PM
karen said...: US Energy Department Awards $1 Billion To FutureGen
3:38 PM ET | Dow Jones

a billion here, a billion there and pretty soon we are talking about real...; August 5, 2010 at 3:42 PM
arbitrage789 said...: 100 billion is the new billion.; August 5, 2010 at 3:43 PM
Leftback said...: What is the PISANI number for NFP tomorrow?
I mean what would get bulls jumping up and down? ZERO?; August 5, 2010 at 3:51 PM
karen said...: NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Agency mortgage securities were sharply lower Thursday as rattled investors sold amid speculation the government would press Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) to refinance home loans to reduce principal balances--speculation Washington officials quickly denied.

The price on a Fannie Mae 30-year bond with a 6% coupon, for example, fell as low as 108-16 from 108-23 at open, an unusually sharp drop in a day. That translates into a $1,562 loss on a $1 million investment. The market later recouped some of those losses after news of the official denial reached traders.; August 5, 2010 at 3:54 PM
CV said...: @LB (3:38)

Fuck... I was going to say... If you want to short "laggards", head on down south to "rutty2k"...

IWM - Short that dog!; August 5, 2010 at 3:55 PM
CV said...: @DL (3:43)

LOL; August 5, 2010 at 3:55 PM
karen said...: (cont.) Over the past couple of weeks, various theories on how the government could help underwater homeowners--those who owe more on their mortgages than their houses are now worth--reduce principal balances have made the rounds from various sources. Fannie and Freddie, the mortgage agencies taken over by the government in the credit crisis, are often cited as potential agents for this change.

Administration officials have consistently shot down such ideas, and Herbert Allison, the Treasury Assistant Secretary for Financial Stability, did so again on a conference call on Wednesday. Allison, who was previously the president and chief executive of Fannie Mae, dismissed the idea as "market chatter" and said the Obama administration wasn't planning any such thing.; August 5, 2010 at 3:55 PM
karen said...: I know, DL is just hilarious..; August 5, 2010 at 3:57 PM
Leftback said...: 42k private jobs added from ADP -
Now double it and add some B/D FUDGE FACTOR = 100k
(RAH RAH RAH says PISANI)

CENSUS had 330k left on the payroll. Lose half of them = 165k.
That's a -65k, close to the consensus -70K.

Lose 2/3 of the census workers and we are at a -120K.
Unemployment up to 9.8%? Decline in Hours Worked?
Look out below.; August 5, 2010 at 3:57 PM
AmenRa said...: I'm back. Decided to cut grass and trim hedges. Are they trying to get the market flat? Didn't weekly claims indicate all is not well?; August 5, 2010 at 3:58 PM
Leftback said...: C,

The dogs I had in mind this time were the banks.
RUT is also "dogging it" today...; August 5, 2010 at 3:59 PM
AmenRa said...: TRIN has stayed over 1.01 most of the day. Someone is dumping...; August 5, 2010 at 4:00 PM
CV said...: @LB

But WORD TO THA MOTHAH...

If I see the KT (in the "cash hours" tomorrow)...

CV is going LONG CITY (while the homies are kickin' it with the blow)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6TUhx2wX0M; August 5, 2010 at 4:00 PM
Leftback said...: Mr BOND and SPOOZ are both looking rich here.
Someone is gonna be wrong.; August 5, 2010 at 4:01 PM
karen said...: bad NFP = strong euro/weak dollar = market up
good NFP = recovery in progress = market up; August 5, 2010 at 4:01 PM
Doggie Kass said...: LB,

Agree with you on the banks.; August 5, 2010 at 4:02 PM
Leftback said...: CV,

Anytime LB sees the KT he KISSes and gets long in a big way.

When Mr Market has dumped this summer it's been a 2-3% puke.

That kind of day - with 25 pts off the SPOOZ - drops us right into the delightful KT area, nestled gently in Karen's cleavage, so to speak.; August 5, 2010 at 4:05 PM
CV said...: 262 comments (nADA "1" from I-Man)...

But CV is SURE my 4:00 video clip will bring out the I-Man...; August 5, 2010 at 4:06 PM
Leftback said...: "bad NFP = strong euro/weak dollar = market up
good NFP = recovery in progress = market up"

Karen, LOL, love the way you think.....!!!; August 5, 2010 at 4:07 PM
I-Man said...: Hey, I'm busy, bubba.; August 5, 2010 at 4:08 PM
CV said...: @LB (3:57)

Dude... That's some quick & concise MATH (& probably accurate, as well)...

If you can BEND your free kicks like that from 30 & in, you're my NEW STRIKER...; August 5, 2010 at 4:09 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

I KNEW IT :-)... Be-ATCH I'm just...; August 5, 2010 at 4:10 PM
Leftback said...: LB don't do no BENDING, CV.
The left foot blasts are PERFECTLY STRAIGHT, with POWER, Yo.

I-Man is Pimp Slapp'd.... working for the Man.; August 5, 2010 at 4:11 PM
CV said...: @LB (4:01)

Sad thing is... IN THE END... We know BOTH of them are going to be wrong...

But at least both sides will get to do a lot of "lines" in between... :-); August 5, 2010 at 4:12 PM
CV said...: LMAO...

This is the most humor Cv has had on the close all summer...

We're all WACK MF'as don'tcha kno (in my BEST Cuba Gooding)...; August 5, 2010 at 4:14 PM
Leftback said...: It's been boring beyond belief.
Something BIG is going to happen.; August 5, 2010 at 4:17 PM
CV said...: @LB (4:17)

Anyone care to see my (20 minute guess)...?; August 5, 2010 at 4:21 PM
Leftback said...: The Bond Report 8.5.10

Today was pretty much a MIRROR IMAGE of yesterday's action in the credit markets. So that means if you stand on your head and read the REPORT from yesterday, you are GOOD TO GO, homies...

Corpies: LQD 0.18%; AGG 0.12%; JNK -0.10%; HYG -0.05%;
Govies: TLT 0.47%; IEI 0.27%; TIP 0.37%

We did nothing. We are bearish equities here after a few fails at 1225-1230 area, and we don't buy the quadruple bottom (or is it quintuple) in TNX as a springboard for a massive bond bloodbath as we celebrate the economic recovery....; August 5, 2010 at 4:25 PM
Leftback said...: Wish we could hear about closing candles. Especially in EURJPY.
A nice European default scare overnight would be lovely.

In other news, President Obama has decommissioned the number "i", explaining that "this number can be used to multiply itself and therefore generate a minus sign." He continued, "We have therefore decided that the number (i x i) = -1 is NEGATIVE, and that this is basically UNAMERICAN. From now on, all future economic data will be reported as the MODULUS of the number, so that a NFP number of -250,000 would be reported as 250,000. We believe that the simplification of our US numbering system will be a significant STIMULUS for GROWTH in our ECONOMEH, going forward...."; August 5, 2010 at 4:34 PM
Anonymous said...: UNAMERICAN?

So Am I to take that as meaning UN-ISLAMIC?; August 5, 2010 at 4:36 PM
Anonymous said...: All you "Women for Obama" had your chance.

You could have voted for Hilary.

Instead, You'll all be wearing burqa's within the next 50 years.; August 5, 2010 at 4:41 PM
I-Man said...: bullshit bitches :) I-Man is trying to master the day trade...

and that was not the I at 4:08...
Surely yall knew that I wouldnt ride without some kind of rasta shit up in the avatar?; August 5, 2010 at 4:41 PM
Anonymous said...: American Idol 2060 -

http://www.nextnature.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/charming-burka.jpg; August 5, 2010 at 4:42 PM
I-Man said...: Today was a challenge, yes.

Terrible batting percentage, but avg win way above avg loss. Gotta be tight with the trade selections in these range days. The best trades today were obvious, but the bullshit ones were tempting.

Its a tough game, dont let anyone tell you different... but I and I knows that.

One thing I've noticed is that when you work for yourself, which is kind of what I'm doing, altho I work for a firm, there is no slack time.

Thats the trade off.; August 5, 2010 at 4:45 PM
Leftback said...: Tyler hath spotted divergence. AUDJPY and EURJPY have lagged, so that means HFs aren't in, and we know MFs are out of cash.

BRIAN? Have you been putting client money to work, heah?

Stocks feel rich and heavy here.... when stocks lead the carry trades two days running on tiny volume, you smell a PUMP n DUMP ....

Divergences; August 5, 2010 at 4:46 PM
I-Man said...: audusd has been pretty money past few days... thats what I've been watching for risk.

but you're right LB, the jpy crosses are funked right now, and its throwing alot of people off.

HOW SICK IS WHEAT?

(I dont care about the russian part, the chart said it first.); August 5, 2010 at 4:49 PM
I-Man said...: (still only trading YM just so everyone is aware); August 5, 2010 at 4:50 PM
Leftback said...: You can almost hear Ra wrapping can't you?

Off to play football, OUTDOORS, brilliant... later dudes.; August 5, 2010 at 4:51 PM
I-Man said...: Me too. I-Man is hittin the pool with the fam... Glad to put a WRAP on today... (a spliff wrap.); August 5, 2010 at 4:53 PM

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

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Morning Audibles 8.5.10 - It's Just a Shot Away

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