Sunday Evening Post & Monday Morning Audibles

Hello Capitalists,

The market update component will be a little late tonight and here's the "excuse:" My wife and I were the only people in America that had not been viewers of Mad Men on AMC. This last week we went on a Mad Men "bender" catching up on the first three seasons. The show is fantastic, but the side affect is that I am becoming Don Draper. For the uninitiated, this means I've taken up hard liquor, chain smoking, and womanizing, none of which is good for producing technical commentary on markets.

So, if the reports suck and are late, now you know why....


Gold Report 1 Aug 2010


And, here are some brief thoughts on the S&P futures and DXY.

I'm longer the DXY now at 40% of my Maximum long position. I remain just 20% short of a Maximum short position on the S&P 500. I won't add on to the S&P trade until we see another leg higher. If we never see that next wave up, then I'll just have to cry in my martini...

Market Update 1 Aug 10

Nothing to add to Andy's charts except I'm sure most people caught the Greenspan interview on MEET THE PRESS... I rounded up all the comments around the internet on it, and they were all pretty much what you'd expect based on who was 'opining' on the subject...

So for giggles, I'll add my input on Greenspan here (which should pretty much cover all past & future interviews)...

230 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 230   Newer›   Newest»
Andy T said...

To add on to the Mad Men commentary, I must add that Christina Hendricks represents my perfect woman. Unreal.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

wunsacon:

I have noticed over the months that although you think you are more liberal than most of us here, I suspect you are not. I look at CV's blog as a chance to blow off economic steam, and that won't change. I suspect most of us realize that it was a chance of fate we were born into the life we lead. Any little burp in the way fate handled us we could have been born in Thailand with AIDS at birth. All my life I have been for the little guy, and that ironically, has made me more against big government. I suppose you could say that I see big government as against the little guy, and that smaller government serves he or she better....

wunsacon said...

>> I have noticed...I suspect you are not.

Bruce, well, maybe or maybe not. I rarely read an opinion from Ritholtz or Yves or Mish or Denninger that I disagree with. But, Ahab, AT (and many other readers) consistently rib Ritholtz as liberal. So, who knows? ;-)

>> Any little burp...and that smaller government serves he or she better...

I don't always agree with you (e.g., global warming). But, I love your motivation, Bruce.

AmenRa said...

Futures look like momo mondays are back in force.

DL said...

wunsacon,

Ritholtz and Mish are frequently not on the same page. Any time the issue of Federal spending comes up, Ritholtz generally says that more is better. And when the issue of marginal tax rates comes up, Ritholtz generally says that higher is better.

Mish is not in that camp.

Larry Bothritz said...

AT, thanks for the charts...

DL, that's becase BR is always right, didn't you know that?

Anonymous said...

@Bruce with regard life, fate and everything else, couldn't agree more with you. But I really doubt that people really appreciate that. You would not see the biases, prejudices, religious hatred, pride etc were that the case.
Life starts with an accident, simple fact, often forgotten.
And of the people, by the people, for the people, don't get me started on that one.

Anyways, markets today continue their affair with risk. Tch.

Prashant

Anonymous said...

Andy, thanks for your updates. I was looking at 50% retrace on the USD index @ 81.50 which now looks to be getting strongly tested. AUDUSD keeps moving up and so is Copper and equities. This is getting tough now. Maybe 80/79.50 could come into play testing the early entrants. Then, maybe not.

Anyways, thanks for all that you write. And to CV, Amen too. And to all the commenters. Good learning for me. Am holding fire for now.

Prashant

McFearless said...

should get a nice bounce this morning. I may dump my long today but probably not, this appears to have some juice.

McFearless said...

likely looking to short CAT at some point soon

Mary Nunzrong said...

Of course BR is always right... He's a liberal... They're ALWAYS right, even when they're wrong...

See how easy things are to solve?

TWSWB said...

I'd describe myself as a LIBERALATARIAN (who blogs)...

CV said...

@Amen

We're looking at up to a 10 point gap open on the $SPX cash...

Yeah - sure... I'm sure that'll never get closed... We're heading straight to AJC land :-)...

CV said...

almost $80 crude...

Oh yeah... equities REALLY are going to like that...

McFearless said...

the bulls want to battle those candles from May, it's where the battleground is.

CV said...

@McF (9:05)

No doubt... I kept thinking about it over the weekend... I got myself aligned into the thinking that COME HELL OR HIGH WATER, the market will make a bid to recapture the FLASH CRASH candle...

We've spent exactly ZERO time over the closing level of that candle (except for a few days shortly after the flash crash where nobody knew what the hell it friggin was)...

That said...

I still think one has to be nimble here...

I wouldn't be surprised AT ALL to see a bunch of whiplash moves in August (to beat the bulls & bear up)...

Today may be up, but by Wednesday we could be back filling the 1072 gap... then back up here on Friday...

But when you look at August as a whole, I'd believe that at some point we'll be up testing the higher reaches of that May 6th candle (and that could be anything from 1150-1186)...

CV said...

@McF

It's not that different from the time spent in the 1200+ area...

At that time, the market was trying to recapture the LEHMAN candles...

mcHAPPY said...

It is so hard to keep any credibility with the momo's when you grind higher over weeks (but yet not to new highs) and go down hard over a week or so (but new new lows). I guess for the masses all you need to hear on the news is markets up and if the markets are up more days than down then it is all good. Also all is needed is the headline numbers that say all good, forget about the details.

That is the only way I can rationalize people's perceptions.

mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

I guess Hochberg missed yet another minor 3 start. I might start doing the opposite of his charts implications - of course, the first time I do that he gets it right lol.

AmenRa said...

CV

I think they're still pissed that they couldn't hold 1110 last week.

CV said...

@McHappy

J6P is at the beach, and even if he were home, he hasn't opened his monthly statement in 6 months...

Furthermore, he has no capacity to quantify... Therefore, you're right 3 "up" days and 2 "down" days (reported by Brian Williams), and it means he's probably doing fine...

CV said...

@Amen

Might not hold it today either :-)

McFearless said...

@McHappy,

he blows dude, his short term calls are awful, betting against him would probably win 70% of the time. I didn't read the update on Friday so I'm not sure what the call was for today but does it really matter, they ran with the nested 1-2, i, ii for weeks when it was clearly wrong.

also, yeah, a month like last month will bring a lot of people back, it was a big month July.

Lazlo Biriyni said...

I'm bullish...

karen said...

good morning! gone all weekend, you guessed it, at the beach! great and funny Andy.. CV, Mr. Magoo and the Wizard of Oz! What can go wrong?

karen said...

Don't look now but the disconnect between real economy and stocks may widen.

CV said...

@karen

With that avatar... What could possibly go wrong?

McFearless said...

C,

yeah, I agree the candles are a lot like the Lehman candle battle. I remember Daneric wrote a whole novel about the Lehman candle and I thought it was a good observation. it's really to me the candles after the flash crash that are so important, we all recall the attitude that immediately followed the flash crash, lots of denial, "fat-finger" and all of that. After that we knew it was no mistake with those big red bodies in the weeks that followed so bulls want to overcome that.

karen said...

ugh.. too many emails to get thru.. deleting most : )

China's manufacturing sees first contraction since March 2009, HSBC survey shows
08/01/2010 10:45:26 PM

McFearless said...

wow, zsl getting crushed this morning.

72bat said...

@ cv -
"With that avatar... What could possibly go wrong?"
the top is pointing down?

McFearless said...

slowly there are more marks building against the bears than there are the bulls, volume being one of them.

CV said...

@McF

Re: VOLUME

We're getting to the point that volume has been so low that ANY day is going to beat the previous...

It's kind of like jobless numbers... At some point, when people stop working, the numbers improve by default...

CV said...

@McF

If the BULLS really want to prove something here, they'd go down and cover that GAP at 1070 (cover todays gap as well)...

Instead of just doing this MOMO Monday (first trading day of month of lightest trading month of year - everybody on vacation - including ALL of Europe - BS)... MELTUP

CV said...

Instead of this...

Get Mr. Magoo on MEET THE PRESS talking about how we're going to go into another recession unless you buy stocks and houses BS...

CV said...

Any other BS you'd like me to supply?

karen said...

FXP at 52 week low this morning.. BZQ makes new low..

now do we have a short covering rally on top of everything else?

karen said...

you gotta look at JJC or $copper! UFB.. really.. wow! did I not tell you copper was the new gold?

karen said...

i could deal with this fine if my little gold/copper miner was up, up and away as well..

CV said...

Fed Will Ease Monetary Policy on Aug. 10: Economist

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38517193

See the PROBLEM, people... Is there's not enough DEBT in the system...

CV said...

excerpt:

"First, Bernanke indicated he could change the Fed's language to convince the market it will not allow deflation."

BWAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHhh!

CV said...

exceprt:

"But action should be taken before it becomes obvious the recovery is likely to falter, according to the Nomura economist...

So basically, aren't you saying that this reaction in equities is PREMATURE?

I mean, if you want more QE... You'd best let the stock market tank...

If we go to new highs here... What PURPOSE would more easing serve?

CV said...

From the same author (in a different article)...

"The market in the West is in a 20-year downturn and you only hold stocks in the developed world when stocks are rallying during this 20-year down trend," he told CNBC."...

Oh - thanks for that...

Hear that people? Only hold stocks when rallying... There you go... You're on your way to MINTING MONEY...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Well, yes. Construction spending was actually up .1% today...wait a minute...but it was down .2% last month right? Er, no. The revision shows it was down a full 1% last month. So we made up 1/10th of last months decline, right?

...Until the revised number next month

http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

McFearless said...

C,

re: volume

in the larger picture we've had no meaningful increase in volume until the flash crash and since then it's a clear downtrend overall and even on the down days so I approach this a little different in that I don't think the bulls have to go lower near term to fill any gaps, they've been proving for a year the market can rally on low volume, the proof needs to come from the bears in the larger frame, not the bulls. just my opinion.

I'm not flipping bullish in the big picture, but I am giving the market the benefit of the doubt in the very near term here, I think it would be foolish not to.

CV said...

@McF

Let's call it what it is PLAIN & SIMPLE...

Johnny hour of MOMO Monday (first Monday & Tuesday of month)...

How long does ANYONE really think equities are going to levitate...

Crude $81.50 = BAD
NFP coming on Friday...

Hmmm... Let me think...

CV said...

FXI is about to hit a 61.8% retrace (and run into resistance at the same time)...

So while everybody is doing their little Miley Cyrus (Party in the USA) act...

One day this week we'll wake up to see Asia down huge and everyone will be running for cover...

Stick a COPPER fork in it...

That said - after that I still see room for levitation of US equities (as we'd discussed previously)...

I just think it's going to be a VOLATILE road up there... (not LINEAR - as it appears today)...

karen said...

yup, new 52 week low in fxp.. fxi up 2.89% with fxp down 5.64%..

McFearless said...

yeah perhaps it is a Momo Monday, we need to break 1130's but you could have said the same thing in July and then watched the market have a monster month. things are just tricky in the near term, best path is probably to do nothing in the market, dollar looks a lot better as a trade to me right now than stocks on the short side.

CV said...

@McF

Look at the Copper chart...

I don't know waves like you, but that looks either like its close to a completed C wave...

Or, if it's going to end up doing a double top (to April), it looks like the endings of a 3 of 3 up...

CV said...

and trust me (karen would agree with this - I think)...

Copper is what's moving equity markets right now...

Or, at least, the IDEA that if copper prices are rising, then there is "growth" somewhere (besides the lens thickness of Mr. Magoo's goggles)...

Mr Market said...

You KNOW that I want to get all over KAREN's TOP again this week. (Just look at that icon). But for today I am just going to enjoy the view of the KT from above - delightful.

Later on in the week I am going to go down and sort of nuzzle up against the KT a bit and possibly plunge down into the nether regions of 1040-1070. But for now, we are going to go topless again.

CV said...

If you ask me...

If there IS any volume today... It's DISTRIBUTION, pure and simple...

Give the "illusion" that stocks are breaking out on good volume...

I'm sure there are a bunch of pimply faced geeks that know how to CODE that into the algos...

karen said...

AGN.. my jaw is agape on today's earnings report.. plenty of money for botox, latisse, and us treasuries, i guess..

McFearless said...

that move in /HG might be some sort of e wave out of a wave iv triangle...I don't have a count for copper but that's what it looks like at first glance.

CV said...

@karen

It's Obama-Geithner-Summers-& Bernocchio buying it by the truckloads to put a pretty face on the economy...

CV said...

@McF

next up?... Some report "out of the blue" this week that copper inventories are up...

You know... They found a whole bunch of it hidden in Wen Jiabao's basement...

McFearless said...

closing out my longs for a small profit. looking at options on CAT.

CV said...

closing candle on FLASH CRASH was 1128.15

karen said...

This is where the iphone is headed (aapl up 5+ pts today.. )

MasterCard, Visa shares drop 3%--10:50 AM ET 8/2/10

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of MasterCard Inc. and Visa Inc. lost nearly 3% each early Monday, after Bloomberg News reported late Sunday that mobile carrier giants AT&T Inc. and Verizon Communications Inc. are looking to allow consumers to complete purchases in stores with smartphones rather than credit or debit cards.

McFearless said...

in re: copper, shit, that chart looks pretty damn bullish in a lot of ways, take a look at FCX as well.

I still don't think we are going to top until 8/9-8/11 I just don't have the high probability set-up that I'd like to so I had to close and go flat for until things clear up.

karen said...

CV.. pls note that JNK is down..

also weekly 3-year chart of AGN and JNK basically interchangeable.

karen said...

this is fascinating on China auto sales:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Report-Chinas-July-auto-sales-apf-559676424.html?x=0

CV said...

@karen (11:00)

Ha! They've been doing that in Finland with NOKIAS for the past 15 years...

You can even get cokes out of vending machines with the phones...

Bucky said...

I am being beaten with a stick today.

But I am going to bottom soon in the area between 79.60 and 80.45 and then me and my buddy CREDITCANE, we are going to open a whole big can of WHOOP ASS for the Bulls.

CV said...

So if you want to see how AAPL stock will do in the next 15 years...

Just look back on NOKIA stock...

CV said...

COPPER looked GREAT in 2008 as well...

McFearless said...

similar in the dollar, volume as the sell-off has moved forward has gotten weaker and weaker.

CV said...

Bucky is back to levels it was at in mid-April (just as SPX was doing it's 1200+ boogaloo)...

I-Man's imposter said...

POS dollar

Anonymous said...

From Kunstler, the guy can certainly write:

Interestingly, NPR ran a local story over the weekend — an obscure little item — saying that Amtrak was determined to raise the average speed of its passenger trains running north from Connecticut through Vermont from 40 miles-per-hour to 60mph. That would be some triumphant accomplishment! It would bring us back to about an 1860 level of service. Of course, I happen to believe that we will be lucky in a few years if we are able to enjoy an 1860’s standard-of-living, so maybe this little side venture in public transport is perfectly in tune with America’s future.

Otherwise, these are just ominous days of drift in a place of stillness where the uncomplaining robot traders tirelessly work their magic in the server farms of Wall Street, while their putative “handlers” enjoy the dainty pleasures of the Hamptons — which seem to center these days on pounding back vast draughts of premium vodka in conjunction with Red Bull, cocaine, hydroponic ganja, Viagra, and Klonopin to round off all those edges. And let’s not forget the catered delicacies circulating on trays passed by super-models — the yellowtail tartare tidbits, the green olive pesto crescents, the firecracker shrimp canap├ęs. I wonder if the nibblers ever stop to reflect on how many of the un-privileged “out there” get by lately on dog food and ketchup.

Bucky said...

Interesting that I am at April levels, but the SPX is lower. Deleveraging, or merely a shift out of US assets into EMs again?

Anyone else think that "they" are going to try to gun the commodities again this summer before we crash? Does this look like an economy that can handle $100 oil? $90?

Lord Blankfiend said...

We don't really care what crude costs.

After all, we have electric helicopters to get to the Hamptons.

CV said...

"And let’s not forget the catered delicacies circulating on trays passed by super-models"

otherwise knows as Ukrianian hookers...

CV said...

@Lord Blankfein

I suggest you use John Boy Kennedy as your pilot on one of these occasions...

karen said...

gold could not care less about the dollar move.. miners not digging $81 crude, either. $tran in denial.. i do think something's gotta give.

CV said...

Last night, just before I went to sleep... I was watching something on DISCOVERY Channel about the days after the storming of the Bastille, that the revolution mob went up to Versailles and brought Louis XVIII & Marie Antoinette back to Paris...

Stuff about guards HEADS being mounted on "pikes" and stuff like that...

Enjoy your pesto Lloyd!

karen said...

laughing over the last 7 ten minute candles.. normally that would lead to a melt up.. but been there, done that.. where is the next 2% push going to come from when we are so close to the expected 1130..

AmenRa said...

The closing prices starting from the flash crash onwards are beginning to affect MA's. MA's should start sloping down with a vengeance and the momo push is trying to counteract that move.

Mr Market said...

1130 would be lovely. Your top is delightful from here, Karen.

karen said...

uh-oh.. gld red now.. this could get bad..

Bruce in Tennessee said...

CV, I for one like Karen's new avatar.

Back to the construction thingy:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38520855

Construction Spending Rises Unexpectedly in June

...Well, let's delve into this a little deeper and see if we can find some arcane reason this might have happened...oh, wait I think it might be this:

"Spending on public projects rose 1.5 percent in June, reversing the prior month's slide. State and local government spending on construction projects rose 1.1 percent after slipping 0.1 percent in May. Federal construction jumped 4.6 percent to a record high $31.7 billion, after falling 2 percent in May."

...Why don't we change the headline to "Construction spending rises in June thanks to government spending"....there, it is all better now.

karen said...

Market entering the danger season??? rolling my eyes.

Godzilla said...

MERTTUP meet MERTDOWN...

Bucky said...

If I rallied now, it's CLAVADISTA d'ORO for sure.

karen said...

Andy has perhaps the best gold charts ever up this weekend.. I need those.. despite the price tag.. : )

karen said...

DanielHusseyJr - AUD/JPY is NOT confirming the SPX rally... so this is what I am watching [closest]

karen said...

A must read: The Found Lost Decade

"It hasn’t been a Lost Decade for everyone; the annualized total return on the 10yr Treasury since July 1999 is 6.8%."

Bucky said...

AUDJPY is a lot of people's favorite risk proxy of late.

China is the key. When China housing bubble pops, it is all over for the commodity currencies, AUD, CAD, BZR and ZAR. Then the housing bubbles will pop in Canada and Australia for sure, and we will have a carry trade unwind that will boost me and JPY substantially.

Mr Bond said...

"It hasn’t been a Lost Decade for everyone; the annualized total return on the 10yr Treasury since July 1999 is 6.8%."

That's why Gentlemen Prefer Bonds, Karen.

karen said...

i am up for a gentleman's bet that we end red today.

Ben22 said...

Karen,

i second your 11:53, I think he's got the best gold charts on the web right now, jesse might disagree however.

Mr Market said...

If you're wrong it's one article of clothing, Karen.

karen said...

one more buck on JJC to complete the right shoulder..

CV said...

@karen

It sure seems like it could snap back at any given moment...

A lot of times on these MOMO Mondays though (especially the first Monday of the month), the indices tend to try & close on the high...

it keeps the buying and DISTRIBUTION going on into Tuesday...

We're pretty close now to that 1128.15 level that the market closed on on "flash crash" day...

Just saying...

But I'd be very nervous here being long for 4 stinkin points...

CV said...

Amen is right

We're just at 55 days since the 1173 high (after flash crash)...

So that 55MA is going to start sloping DOWN in a hurry... Aww shucks - the same MA was just about to do a GOLDEN CROSS over the 233MA...

Better bid up those equities Lloyd... FAST!

karen said...

from Briefing.com, "The S&P 500 recently spent about an hour consolidating its gains near the 1122 line, but it has since climbed up another couple of points to trade at a fresh session high. The move wasn't caused by any particular catalyst, but rather comes an extension of this session's already strong, broad gains." I simply cannot imagine what could go wrong here.

Mr Market said...

They will push on today, nothing they like better than toasting some Bears into the close, but look at Gold and Natty, not joining the party today.

Mr Bond said...

Are you nervous, GOLDFINGER?

CV said...

Looks like HARRY WANGER was all over the trade, once again, and got out of his shorts (4 weeks ago) right on the lows...

---

by HarryWanger
on Mon, 08/02/2010 - 11:02
#499671


Regarding Greenspan, the equity idea of a rally being beneficial to the economy has been his mantra now for a few months. Every time he shows up somewhere he repeats that same line about equities. Nothing new.

As far as the markets go, I'd be inclined to be pretty bullish far into the "medium" term as in decent movement higher over the next 18 months. We've made it through all the near term "horror" without a collapse or even near collapse. I believe it's been delayed, not taken off the table, at least 18 months though.

Login or register to post comments

by HelluvaEngineer
on Mon, 08/02/2010 - 11:07
#499675


Did you just get your crystal ball tuned up or something?

Login or register to post comments

by jdrose1985
on Mon, 08/02/2010 - 11:09
#499679


dude are you fucking kidding me. I knew you'd be back around but i really underestimated you. I thought you wouldnt be dumb enough to continue posting under the same name after May.

You're a better contrary indicator than Goldman's client desk. For reelz.

Login or register to post comments

by HarryWanger
on Mon, 08/02/2010 - 11:22
#499703


Huh? I went short, did very well. Went into cash nearly four weeks ago, where I've remained and now am still waiting a bit. No hurry to rush in until after Friday's jobs number.

Look, we've had mediocre to terrible economic news but some fairly decent earnings. At this point, I think we need some time for the European crisis to really rock, China to show a sustained descent and the US to get past elections and Bush tax cuts before a real turn lower.

Seriously, what's the catalyst now to take us lower near term? Haven't we seen the market shrug off just about everything lately?

I've been completely transparent about my position. Now, I'm leaning back to being bullish until all the stimulus worldwide runs short and the real crisis ensues. That should be around 2012.

CV said...

Seriously, what's the "catalyst"?

LOL

Um - I don't know... Maybe Tan Joe knows...

Mannwich said...

@cv: Harry has apparrently never made a bad trade. Ever.

Bucky the Talking Currency said...

HAIRY WANKER is the greatest trader of all time.

I turned up right off my 4/1/10 low this morning. That's support for now, although we may see the whole 79.5-81 area as a choppy level of consolidation with each bump lower bringing in more buyers of me.

DL said...

Karen @ 12:02

Gentleman's bet...?

AmenRa said...

CV

Don't get me started on Leo...

karen said...

DL, pls don't confuse me any further than I am.

KidD. has an interesting post up on the Citi fine..

http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2010/07/citis-sec-fine-you-should-be-perturbed.html

CV said...

OK...

So I think I'm going to finally capitulate and SELL my SRS shares that I bought last March...

LOL

If anybody EVER says anything about a "lock" trade EVER again... I'm just going to point them to that dog right there...

Franklin411 said...

I've never made a bad trade either.

But then, my average holding period is 40 years.

Bucky the Talking Currency said...

Leveraged ETFs can be hazardous to your wealth.

CV said...

So let's see...

If I DOUBLE down now on the SRS shares at 22 (with the first tranche at 550)...

Let's see, that gives me a COST BASIS of $286...

So all I'd need would be a 13 bagger from here to break even...

Sweet!

Larry Bothritz said...

Steve Barry Syndrome....

wunsacon said...

Not just copper. Look at DBA and GCC, too. It's not Mish's definition of inflation (credit expansion). But, it is inflation by my dad's definition of "too much money chasing too many goods".

Looks like currency debasement.

wunsacon said...

Er, should be "too much money chasing too few goods".

AmenRa said...

I see the resistance at 1123.54 (fibo .685 from low) and the 50% retrace at 1121.44 is slowing the bulls momentum.

wunsacon said...

And PALL and PPLT...

Lord Blankfiend said...

But, it is inflation by my dad's definition of "too much money chasing too many goods".

No - it is too many trading desks trying to make easy profits gunning prices in ETFs linked to commodities using leverage and the free money you gave us you nitwits... nothing to do with real goods.

CV said...

@Amen

I had this dream last night that SPX went down to 618...

It's RETRACEMENT to zero...

But that was only on its way to 382... :-)

Saint Jamie said...

We will keep on doing this indefinitely until the pitchforks come out.

CV said...

@Lloyd Blankfein

Well pretty soon your going to have to pull the plug and tank the market...

Otherwise, or until then, there will be no more free money coming...

See how it works?

CV said...

This TITS OF THE CLASHONS will not end until Lloyd & Jamie are the only two left standing & are pitted against one another...

karen said...

Mr. TopStep.. better when Nic posts it : (

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyw9kc5FvRs

Harry Wanger said...

Get long or stay wrong, suckers.

ben22 said...

"too much money chasing too few goods"

well, there's two problems

first and foremost, it is credit, not money. Second, there aren't any shortages of anything. There is no copper shortage that I'm aware of, no oil shortage, etc.

this is how trying to claim inflation by looking at the price of something gets your burned.

Ben22 said...

"Get long or stay wrong, suckers"


sigh....bears have been wrong for 10 years...oh wait, no they haven't.

karen said...

1:30 PM ET 8/2/10 | Dow Jones By Katy Burne

Citigroup has added a tranche of five-year notes to its already announced sale of 10-year bonds, expected to price later Monday afternoon.

The five-year tranche, which is a reopening of the firm's existing 4.75% issue due May 2015, is tipped to be in the range of $500 million to $1 billion, and the 10-year tranche is tipped to be as much as $1 billion.

Price talk on the 10-year bonds is 250-255 basis points over comparable U.S. Treasurys, according to a person familiar with the sale, inside earlier whispers of 262.5 basis points. And price talk on the five-year notes is expected to be in the area of 255 basis points over Treasurys.

The securities are expected to be rated A3/A/A+ and proceeds are for general corporate purposes.

Excluding medium-term notes, Citigroup's most recent U.S. marketed investment-grade bond was on July 16 at $330 million, according to data provider Dealogic. Before that, the firm raised $1.5 billion through high-grade bonds on May 12.

Ben22 said...

top step would seem to think this move has legs...I'll leave it at that.

karen said...

"The securities are expected to be rated A3/A/A+ and proceeds are for general corporate purposes." Rolling my eyes!!

CV said...

@karen

Tim saying 27 & a half (on minis)... That pretty much lines up with what i was saying before (about 1128.15 on cash) to have been the FLASH CRASH closing candle...

I can easily see that as an objective...

It would be easy to imagine trying to maintain this level for a few days (if nothing else - just to lull the bears into BOREDOM)...

If enough shorts get removed, that could lead to a lot of AIR underneath...

FLASH CRASH 2?

Think of it this way... At some point - even if you're a MOMO (and have made 12% on the quarter since the lows which were put in right at the beginning of July)... You're going to say "I'm good for this quarter" and take chips off until the fall lows...

Ben22 said...

it's funny how as soon as energy and materials break out of consolidation I can read the word inflation at least a trillion times a day no matter where I look.

CV said...

"The securities are expected to be rated A3/A/A+ and proceeds are for general corporate purposes."

Translation:

They'll be using it to pay BONUSES

Ben22 said...

"You're going to say "I'm good for this quarter" and take chips off until the fall lows"

this issue is a bit muddy for me as well

A quick glance at morningstar data through 6/30 of this year shows a ton of equity managers underperforming the S&P, same in hedge fund land, they have 5 months to fix that, highly doubtful they are looking to exit so quick after July as a result of the performance chasing they need to do.

karen said...

Buy AAPL, no wait, buy GOOG.. oh, just buy both!

Android Sales Top Apple IPhone In First-Half 2010, Says Nielsen
1:37 PM ET 8/2/10 | Dow Jones
SAN FRANCISCO Google Inc.'s (GOOG) Android has overtaken Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) iPhone in the high-profile smartphone sweepstakes, according to one market research firm.

CV said...

@ben22

So the MOMOs stay in... The "hedgies" move out...

Sounds right for an ABC-ish phase...

DL said...

"Buy AAPL, ... buy GOOG.. ...just buy both!

Or go long one, short the other, thereby avoiding market risk.

If I had to choose between the two, I'd probably go with a long GOOG/short AAPL position, with a 12-month holding period.

Johnny Appleseed said...

I'd buy just plain apples...

I-Man said...

Honeycrisps are good, but I and I prefer Jazz.

Mannwich said...

Pink Ladies are good too. Honey crisps here in MN are great too.

CV said...

@DL @Johnny

Re; apples

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sf0OFZexRGs

karen said...

DL, do you have to upset my sarcasm with seriousness?? sighing..

karen said...

fuji organic is my apple of choice.. grapefruit and vodka at the close however..

72bat said...

blackberry martini for me. nothing on the rim.

Ben22 said...

C,

yeah, if anyone moves I'd think for sure it'd be hedgies, mf's are too restricted to think and act on that short of a time frame, those guys never think that way.

@DL,

with some 80%+ of stocks trending with the indexes, don't you think if you were trying to avoid/reduce market risk you'd be better off owning some individual names long and buying puts or selling calls on the Q's, or something along those lines?

I-Man said...

modelo especial, w/ a lime wedge...

DL said...

K @ 2:03

Don't want to rain on your parade.

I'm just trying to make the point that one can avoid the risk of a significant downdraft in the S&P500, and instead take on risk of another kind.

karen said...

a blackberry vodka martini! i'll just pretend : ) but you can drink mine, bat..

Colin said...

IYR breaking out, commercial REITs continuing to drive the economy I guess.

Ben22 said...

and also, mf's moved even harder into the market last month, so they are riding into August thinking they have been "right" and if I've ever met people that were beyond cocky about knowing for sure where markets would go it would be an MF manager.

i've gotten to meet several over they years, but my opinion aside, it's evident in the performance isn't it....

Mannwich said...

Bailout coming for CRE, is more like it. More QE.

Dennis Gartman said...

Brilliant DL!!

I always like to be long of one asset, while short of another.

And let me add, I always hate myself when I'm long of gold.

72bat said...

karen -
re your 10:04 a.m., jesse says:
"As a reminder the Canadian Stock Exchanges are closed today for their national holiday Civic Day.
So if your junior miners are not 'performing' today the fact that they are not trading on their primary exchange may very well be the reason."

karen said...

Thanks for sharing that Colin!

I-Man said...

I want real Leftback, not anonymous Leftback.

Ben22 said...

bailout for CRE? lol, market says it doesn't even need one....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro

Mannwich said...

@ben22: Maybe mr. market expects it to get one (another one).

karen said...

bat.. thanks for that.. my little canadian miner is definitely underperforming extra today.. has been for years, however hmm, so is everyday a national holiday in Canada ?! laughing.. I wonder if Renaissance Technologies still holds their 18M shares as indicated on e*trade.. I bot mine first!

Leftback said...

I-Man,

Leftback here at your service.

karen said...

I-Man @ 2:12, that is so sweet but I don't see the difference : )
maybe he thinks he's too exposed professionally..

karen said...

i hate it when my smiley face gets broken.. : (
i didn't tell you all what happened while french pressing this morning.. spilling the beans would have been welcome! the press actually separated after I pushed it an inch down.. so i bascially poured the coffee unpressed but as if thru a strainer..

I-Man said...

There's the man...

I'd know that pig anywhere.

CV said...

FWIW -

I just took a look backwards... 200 DAILY candles from today (which puts us within a few days candles from karens top)...

Now - if you take the highest high (1220) and the lowest low (1010) since then, that AVERAGES out to around the 1115/1116 level...

The DAILY CLOSES above that level - since that time - were the "Santa Claus rally" period (12/21/09 through January opex)...

AND

From 3/1/10 through May opex...

So go ahead and draw a horizontal line at the 1116 level... While you're at it, look at what has happened to the market when it's FAILED to hold that level (since last October)...

karen said...

I really <3 TraderMark:

I wrote a week and a half ago that the algos were moving into the commodity trade... [Jul 23, 2010: HAL9000 Starting to Get his Commodity Play On] I should have listened to myself. It looks to me like a huge allocation trade is happening where the big money is moving from the tech stocks they rode for a few months, into anything in the CRB index (i.e. commodities). Since the individual names mean nothing to HAL9000, I wish there was an ETF with the top 8-10 hedgie favorites. Instead I have to build my own basket so I am going to put together a 4 prong approach with hedge fund favorites FCX, POT, WLT, CLF. I picked these 4 but feel free to throw a dart at any number of 100-200 commodity stocks and you will get almost the identical chart.

It is almost meaningless to tell you what they do, since it means nothing to HAL but respectively they are copper, fertilizer, coal (met and steam), and iron ore. I am streamlining as a few of these names have other businesses.

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/08/bookkeeping-starting-commodity-basket.html

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Not enough time to keep up with the news today guys, will check after the close.

18 said...

1 min SPX hugging 1122.88 (.382 1116-1134)... , still don't see this thang running up to 1134 this week, but, i've been on the wrong side of trades many times! I llike that gap up from 1116, it's gonna get filled today?

CV said...

@karen

I wouldn't say they were TOTALLY abandoning tech...

BIDU is, AGAIN at an all time high today... (just gapped up over previous all time high back in May...

karen said...

Bruce, so sorry to hear you can't join in our fun today..

okay, anecdotes.. my high end painting contractor just ran out of jobs.. my neighbor was able to sell their original starter home in nine days for $13k over ask.. i have a professional dry waller here today doing a small patch job.. why? cuz he is that slow..

karen said...

Ha.. that bidu chart reminds me of fxi in 2007

Leftback said...

How on Earth did you do that?
I have trade-marked that pig™...!

I-Man said...

Nothing a computer likes better than buying new highs on a trend up day...

Leftback said...

We nodded off for a few minutes here, didn't miss much. The desks are going to come in and ramp you in about half an hour.

Do you enjoy being ramped, Karen?

I-Man said...

Aww shit... that wasnt you at 2:16?

We've really been infiltrated here...

18 said...

CV
pull up a chart last 5 days or so, how many time did SPX touch 1116 then drop? Today, traded up to it a couple times, then BAM, jumped over it.

grrrr, 1126? inching towards 1134...
NOOOOOOOOOOOO!

CV said...

It's MUTT

18 said...

I-Man
LOL

been alot of that lately

I-Man said...

Think like machine.

CV said...

Cv is doing his best DOUG KASS here by saying we're going to 1186 (but may hit 1042 on the way)...

lol

Leftback said...

My pig has been hacked, so what is a man to do?

Leftback said...

Why work when you can be subsidized by US taxpayers?
Israel...

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aQxdmtsWlYes&pos=14

18 said...

Leftback said...
My pig has been hacked, so what is a man to do?

GET COCKY!

I-Man said...

And keep a tight leash on your Ass.

Leftback said...

Which in our case, is not especially difficult....

Leftback said...

I could bring out the donkey again, the ladies have always been a big fan of my mule.... but right now, since I am long equities and short the 30y, it seems like a day for the rooster to crow.

We are also waiting cautiously for Bucky to wrestle Yen and Goldfinger to the mat before he tangles with Mangler again.

CV said...

A mule is NOT a donkey...

I-Man said...

This market is the king of the 7 tick trade... got to bag em quick, and get the f*ck out of the way.

karen said...

LB, oh do tell what equities you are long? AA perhaps? unless you were lucky enuf to be holding ETRMD..

DL said...

quote from Margaret Thatcher:

"It may be the cock that crows, but it is the hen that lays the eggs".

http://quotes4all.net/margaret%20thatcher:2.html

karen said...

the bell tower is ringing the hour.. literally across the street at La Casa Pacifica..

Bob Doll said...

valuations are “really cheap.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38486599

Rock Hudson said...

I never met a cock that I didn't like...

karen said...

Four Wisconsin Farms Sell for $2.8 Million as Buyers Focus on Quality
3:04 PM ET 8/2/10 | Marketwire
Farmland buyers continued their focus on quality Saturday, July 31, when four Wisconsin farms sold for prices as high as $6,667 per acre, according to Schrader Real Estate & Auction Company, which conducted the sale. The 771 acres brought a total price of $2,805,000, or an average of $3,638 per acre.

"There's no doubt that quality is still bringing a premium," said R.D. Schrader, president of the company, which sold the farms for Merrill J. Oster, president of Oster Partners LP and co-founder of Pro Farmer newsletter.

The 41 registered bidders placed the highest value of $6,667 per acre on a 78-acre tract near Glen Haven, most of which consisted of high-quality Tama soil.

"We've been seeing the emphasis on quality for well over a year now, but it's never been more clear than it was in Wisconsin. Across the board, even for the lower quality land, we got prices that were on the strong side even by the standards of today's healthy market for tillable land," said Schrader. Prices on other tracts ranged from $5,000 per acre to $2,063 per acre. The lower prices went for land that include recreational and non-tillable acreage as well as over 250 acres with a conversation easement.

"This sale was all about productivity," said Schrader.

I-Man said...

Why would anyone want farmland?

I thought all vegetables came from the store???

karen said...

i'm thinking noon is the new 5.. cooper is the new gold.. and LB is the new..

CV said...

@karen

They can pay $80+ a barrel for crude and go till all they want...

I'll stick to TILAPIA with free rain water...

karen said...

50 is the new 30..

I-Man said...

Hey, you can till with a donkey...

:)

karen said...

look at those spx 10 min candles again.. guess will just consolidate our way to 1220? up 2% a day?

Leftback said...

Karen,

Index longs only. Not clever enough for individual stocks. Actually I am as bearish as always, this was simply an opportunistic swing trade. Also holding some JNK and LQD and have a lower exposure to TLT than usual.

I bought some SPY and QQQQ twice when were in the 1040 area, b/c USTs (3.88% on the 30y) and JPYEUR were in an extreme overbought there, and have held on watchfully to the longs since then. Not smart enough to buy at 1010, was hiding under the table with Cramer.

This is just a summer rally play. I haven't grown horns, just not a good time to short yet. In fact, LB's rooster is no more horny than usual.

karen said...

guess WE will, i meant..

Leftback said...

"Hey, you can till with a donkey..."

Set me to the plough...

I-Man said...

I and I Donkey...

CV said...

@LB

Over here in America we play "pin the TAIL on the donkey"...

I guess you Brits do it backwards...

«Oldest ‹Older   1 – 200 of 230   Newer› Newest»

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.