Morning Audibles 8.6.10

"PORK BELLIES... I knew it!" (Winthorpe - Trading Places 1982)




I know, CV is just being moronic this morning (a phenomenon which is often unavoidable)... But, you know, you have to SEIZE THE DAY and there's nothing much to really SEIZE these days (based on my understanding of the word "seize")...



seize   [seez]
–verb (used with object)
1.
to take hold of suddenly or forcibly; grasp: to seize a weapon.
2.
to grasp mentally; understand clearly and completely: to seize an idea.
3.
to take possession of by force or at will: to seize enemy ships.
4.
to take possession or control of as if by suddenly laying hold: Panic seized the crowd.
5.
to take possession of by legal authority; confiscate: to seize smuggled goods.

Looking at the markets and the economy these days, one ban begin to understand why (although the latter two definitions ought to arrive at out doorstep at some point or another)...

So since there is not much to seize, let's get back to the subject of PORK BELLIES...




Romer To Leave White House


So I guess "Chicks Can't Do Math" (Larry Summers) was really the man, behind the woman, behind the man, after all... When interviewed about the truth to such speculation, Summers leaned over and replied...



I fart in opposite your general direction

Why is it that the only two that are smiling in what "looks" to be a police interrogation room, are the first ones who are abandoning spaceship Obama?

Why would anyone one want to leave in the middle of this blistering RECOVERY? I mean, surely accolades & awards for such an enormous feat of accomplishment should be just around the corner... Right? I mean, there are Nobel Prize awards just a few months away... You should be standing in line to receive yours like this guy...




Stiglitz Says U.S. Faces `Anemic Recovery,' Needs More Stimulus


“It’s absolutely clear that you need a second round of stimulus,” Stiglitz said. “It needs to be better designed. It needs to be focused more on returns on investment, education, infrastructure, technology. And if you do those kinds of high- powered investments, the long-term national debt will be actually lower and the growth in the future will be higher.”

“Unfortunately, with savings going up to 5, 6, 7 percent, aggregate demand is going to be weak,” he said. “The only thing to fill it is government.”

Let's see... CV was just commenting yesterday about the ROI (return on investment) on education...




CV said...





@anon

Worse than that is the HIDDEN INFLATION of tuition...

meaning: The ROI of what someone paid for tuition in, say, 1980 and eventual wages & salaries pocketed

VERSUS

What you pay today, and what one might expect the ROI on eventual wages & salaries, going forward, to be (and the amount they will be TAXED on those wages - the SOCIAL SECURITY deduction & the idea that they will probably never receive the social security payment when all is said & done)...

CV said...





I've JOKINGLY said before that if someone has a "college age" teenage daughter (and she's attractive)...

If your goal is a real dollar return... a better ROI might be to buy her a pole and some dancing lessons rather than pay 4 years of college tuition...

In the end - both probably bring about the same atmosphere...

In one scenario she leaves with a pile of loot

In the other she leaves with a mountain of debt (then to pay off that debt has to basically go pole dancing in the business world anyway to get ahead)...

Of course I'm just JOKING here...

We know colleges and businesses are upstanding and reputable places that produce worthy graduates of scholar...



Of course I should be booted from the blogosphere for making what would appear (on the surface) to be a sexist comment (just as anyone who criticizes Obama's economic policies is clearly a racist)...

But lo and behold, last night I find this article...




Stripper Finds Degree Profitable for Goldman Wasn't Worth It



Excerpt:

"Her bachelor’s degree in game art and design cost $70,000 in tuition and fees. After she graduated in December 2007, she found a job that paid $12 an hour recruiting employees for video game companies. She lost that job a year later when her department was shuttered."

"These days, Howard, 26, makes her living in a way that doesn’t require a college diploma: by stripping at the Lido Cabaret, a topless club in Cocoa Beach, Florida. “I didn’t know what else to do,” she says. “I’ve got a worthless degree. It’s like I didn’t attend school at all.”"

Maybe CV should be a guidance counselor?

So whatever... people... I now return you to your CAPITALISTIC endeavors (which include watching the government shred documents announce reports, and all the red and green candles that that produces)...

Meanwhile... Regardless if the NFP report looks bad/good or sugarcoated, you can go into the weekend and sleep soundly knowing that since Romer is returning to Berkeley, that's considered a "new position" in academia is ANOTHER JOB SAVED BY THE STIMULUS...



F411 "knew it" all along (just like our friend Winthorpe)...















356 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 356   Newer›   Newest»
CV said...

@ahab

From other thread you said you didn't have evidence of Bernanke manipulating things...

Here's the proof right here...

http://mortgagenewsclips.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/ben1.png

McFearless said...

@ahab,

previous,

of course the fed tries to do what you say, MBS is not the stock market, but I figured that'd be the example. In any event.....if the thoughts are they are doing it but probably won't be able to make it work, this conversation is about as valuable as the one about a double dip recession. 2 50% drops inside of 10 years and people still talk about how interested the government and the Fed are in propping the stock market up, maybe they aren't interested enough.

I did misread your statement a bit, I'd been drinking for about 7 hours straight when I read that...yikes, in any event, the discussion is a waste of time.

"think what you want"

you too, and seriously man, don't take any of that stuff personal, I simply hate the Fed and everything about them and in the last month I've heard enough theories about what they are doing and what they can do, the vast majority of which have no place in reality, to last me an entire lifetime.

McFearless said...

and to be fair, I do believe one of their mandates is price stability, but again, they seem to fail miserably at that, and I'm certainly not just talking about stocks or bonds.....

to be clear, never once have I denied that they will attempt to stop any problems in markets, I claimed they would do this until the bitter end, was never in denial about that, where I seem to part ways with most is that I don't easily accept that the might Fed can overwhelm market forces, and facts seem to be on my side here and I don't buy the theory that the entire market rally was due to the Fed, plenty of people bought this rally....like me, plenty of mf's, plenty of mutual funds, plenty ken fischers and barton biggs and John Paulson's and Brian Wesbury's out there.

hope everyone enjoys the employment soap opera this morning, I know whatever happens it will be unexpected.

Anonymous said...

b22-

my only point on my post last night was that my impression is the Fed will do what it can to support whatever it can-

it won't come out and say- we're buying futures here to support the stock market (whether that's done or not- who knows)-

whether the Fed's actions are sufficient to keep market prices in check is another topic-

but you have to agree that that is their goal- to support asset prices-

regarding the rally last year- what of the Fed lowering rates to zero and giving banks fresh greenbacks for worthless securities? That alone created conditions for a run up in stocks-

the whole V shaped recovery mantra as an impetus - that doesn't hold water

Anonymous said...

CV-

was it you last night who said Romer was out because she kept eating all the donuts?

McFearless said...

ahab,

yes, I do agree that it is their goal and that they have a lot of different tools to try and make it happen, not denying that at all, I just don't think they have control over much of anything markets, they are just reacting doing the best they can but they can, and have been, overwhelmed.

as for the rally last year, look beyond stocks my man, basically every single asset class rose and not just here but all around the world, they didn't buy em all up, and you already know the markets are exchanges, not hot air balloons.

also, the banks sat on most of that cash as they continued to bleed heavily and hide it with accounting nonsense that we refer to as "earnings"

the description that what they did caused or created conditions for a run up in stocks is a description of an efficient market, where the net react appropriately to outside events.

on another note, we ended up in the front row last night for KOL which was pretty exciting because I've never gotten that close to a band that had gotten big. I wish I could properly describe their faces when they played Sex On Fire....I felt bad for them, they looked as though they were so sick of playing that song. They didn't play very long and I only counted 1 new song, was an ok show, the fame seems to be getting to them, they played for several hours the first time I saw them in 2004. they did have fireworks at the end though, that was pretty rock-starish.

also, there is no deflation impact yet in the price of concert beers ($9.50 for a Silver Bullet) or generic band t-shirts ($45), all I have left is my ticket stub and wristband and a massive headache this morning....

Anonymous said...

McFearless@6.57 "hope everyone enjoys the employment soap opera this morning"

Yep sure, just opened a bottle of Aussie shiraz here (my wife's O/S) so I'll stick around.

@6.51 "I'd been drinking for about 7 hours straight when I read that"
...ha it wasn't many hours ago, hope you'll get a chance for a bit more of a recovery than that, I'd be useless for days if I drank that long!

Anyway refreshing to hear that one of us is having a flutter on the long side, I'm starting to think shorting equities is a mugs game (not that Ive tried mind you,
but "supportive" govt announcements seem almost guaranteed whenever conditions for shorting seem most tempting).

Anyway, enough soliloquizing from me, Bertie

McFearless said...

and I realize that after typing that being that close to band is hardly as cool as being Madonna's trainer...I was very impressed by that if I'm being honest.

McFearless said...

did I read somewhere that John Paulson was now bearish?

McFearless said...

Bertie,
gatorade, eggs and some excedrin, decent combo there for those kind of nights, at least for me.

Anonymous said...

Regulators tried to reassure financial markets about "stress tests" ordered on Chinese banks' real estate lending, saying Friday they do not represent official views of where the market is headed or any impending policy change.

I wonder if a stress test would ever be orchestrated if the results weren't known in advance?

a worldwide phenomena it appears

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38582505

Kass: Don’t Get Caught Up In Optimism

Ben,

Maybe not just Paulson. I hear Dougie Kass has started a branch of the FFA. No, not Future Farmers of America. This is Flip Floppers Anonymous....

McFearless said...

hahah, oh man, are people watching CNBC right now

McFearless said...

Becky Quick just made some classic tv

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I think Cnbc should wait on pins and needles for the numbers of the revisions. The revision numbers in this economy are seemingly ALWAYS worse than first guessed.

...today, amazingly worse.

Anonymous said...

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.5 percent in July for a second straight month, just below market expectations for a rise to 9.6 percent. The steady jobless rate largely reflected a drop in the labor force as discouraged workers gave up the search for jobs.

always a silver lining- as more and more workers give up the search for unemployment the unemployment rate will go down-

we'll be back to 5 or 6% in no time

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From

Aug 06 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jul -131K -100K -87K -221K -125K

Aug 06 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls - Private Jul 71K 70K 83K 31K 83K

..I think you could call this WTE.....

Anonymous said...

I crack myself up- last post should read-

"as more and more workers give up the search for employment the unemployment rate will go down"

although maybe some folks are searching for unemployment- hoping for the "prayoff"

karen said...

morning! hey.. you know some of those jobs are never coming back and some of those jobless will be forever out of the workforce.. they will make do with less and/or take care of their own d*mn children! (CV, I think some of your feistiness rubbed off on me : )

ben.. the show sounds disappointing! hope they got into at least some of their songs..

karen said...

AIG is UFB.. seems to have a 23% short position..

karen said...

Ben, from the last thread.. who was ripping you up for playing long side?! no one that i know of.. seemed smart to me.. i think LB said he was long, too, with short hedges..

Leftback said...

Can't wait to see Mish take this one apart

K, as of last night's close, we were about 2.5:1 short:long equities, and long fixed income with no hedges on bonds. I want to try to hold some longs until it's clear that it's all over for the bulls.

Leftback said...

LB is not Bill Gross, really.. but this is what we have been saying.

PIMCO says buy the long end

McFearless said...

karen,

just ignore those posts, me running my mouth.

I think probably with the jobs data today the interesting development from my view is how many jobs might be cut from state and local gov over the next few quarters. While private sector showed what it did, the longer term trend in private unemployment we all know, government jobs have grown quite a lot, is this the start of the reversal there?

McFearless said...

meant to say private employment job growth....which has been very weak for about a decade now

Anonymous said...

Ahhh, glad to see that my 18 number 1134 wasn't hit this week... so far.

@ Karen
Been working at LAX for the last couple of days before I head up to Visalia for a couple of weeks, and want to ask ya... Is that "June Gloom" I see every day? It just hangs in the air for most of the morning, and sometimes in the afternoon. Can I breathe it? LOL

Also, had to drop off some paperwork in Huntington Beach, to me, didn't look like a recession was going on it that city! Drove through Aliso Viejo... nice area! (looks very expensive tho!)

18

Leftback said...

2.84% on the 10y, so the 2.90% area is now upside resistance for TNX. LB doesn't believe in triple bottoms, not surprised to see 2.90% break down, Gross is dead right on the long end and the yield curve will flatten.

Turning Japanese....

karen said...

18! you were so close to me.. Aliso Viejo on the toll road? Expensive is along the coast.. Newport coast would astound you. Sun came out along the coast in the afternoon.. we haven't even had a summer this year.. very very cool.. and that near constant June Gloom!

Mr Market said...

Must ... find ... 1101-1103 ... it's irresistible ...

karen said...

Not sure if this is relevant to you FF fans:

http://247wallst.com/2010/08/05/the-daily-gimmick-miller-lite-fantasy-football-draft-sweepstakes-tap-mo-bud/

karen said...

the dollar hasn't hit 80 yet..

karen said...

zerohedge - US economy now has to add 300,000 a month for the next 5 years to get back to 2007-low unemployment accounting for demographics

McFearless said...

@leftback,

do you ever trade options on the bond etf's or do you stick to the etf itself?

Leftback said...

LB will take the opposite side of the Brazilian bet (bonds not stocks):

Investors Flood to Brazilian Stocks, Desert Bonds

72bat said...

bruce -
from last evening's thread...,
excellent 4 rules!
"Second, live beneath your means" especially resonates, a primary value of my parents (children/y.a.'s of the gd) which i internalized from the get-go and, unfortunately later in life, had underscored by the domestic relations laws of ohio.
as to your "thinking of investing 7 figures in the near future," what's the ticker symbol for that?

karen said...

"Barack Obama couldn't create a private sector job if he was the manager of a Pinkberry on Rodeo Drive.

I've been rooting for this administration since January 20th, 2009 regardless of any ideological differences, but they literally cannot get anything done.

With agricultural commodity prices taking off, maybe we all ought to dust off the overalls and start concerning ourselves with farm payrolls and how we can get on one."

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2010/08/06/july-non-farm-payroll-report-makes-you-wish-you-worked-on-a-farm/

Leftback said...

TLT calls only when it is screamingly obvious.
(But CV is the king of that) and we use TBT to short.
For some reason TBT is one of the easier ETFs to trade.

Bond longs are in a mix of liquid (ETFs) and less liquid vehicles.
Vanguard funds are good performers.

karen said...

on track for 1134 now : )

Anonymous said...

Exactly, why wait around playing the futures markets when you can play the near futures, Bertie

72bat said...

"farm payrolls and how we can get on one"
i can hear cv now, 'get on your own damn self-employed farm payroll'

Anonymous said...

Last comment was for 72 bat, a bit shiraz-impaired right now, Bertie

By the way, just back from Kuala Lumpur and Singapore, some amazing development going on in both those places, perhaps not of Shanghai proportions but still not too shabby.

karen said...

spx didn't even touch 10 ema at 1114 ish..

Leftback said...

Tilapia, baby.

Tepid sell-off, you can see why we kept our longs, Karen.

Bond markets are key. Oddly enough, if we ever got a strong jobs number, the front end would run and hide and equities would FALL. That's what Team Macro Man were on about yesterday. But in The New Nipponized USA? Not going to happen....

karen said...

oh brother - mrtopstep

[$ES_F #futures $$ 07:41:15 AM]: for those that like risk cud be a buy opportunity next dip 1114.50 last

McFearless said...

if you look off yesterday's highs it's just another three wave move down it seems

Anonymous said...

@ Karen,
Didn't take the toll road, saw it 73? 76? and a 243? something like that but went down the 405. On the way back to Manhattan Beach somehow we went west to PCH then drove that... whew, took forever but a nice slow drive enjoying everything. Today the guys I'm with want to go to Redondo(sp) Beach area for lunch. I'll walk onto the beach and wave @ ya! (but don't think you live very close to RB.)

karen said...

i don't know how to translate this into my $spx:

mrtopstep - [08:12:00 AM]: stops r always 3-5 handles [08:21:28 AM]:SPU traded down to 1113 area up 1116 area back hold 1112 w/ 1114.25 las

karen said...

yes the 73 toll road.. i'll tell you the difference between where you are and south orange county is night and day.. beaches, too.

72bat said...

bertie
"investing in the near future"
i imagined bruce with biff's almanac in hand

Leftback said...

Sell into the close today, then we would be shorting Treasuries there.

Can't imagine putting new money to work here, Bruce.

What would you buy? Stocks and bonds are not cheap.
LB would buy into clean new finance companies.
Investing in smart individuals is the way to go.
Provided this government stops protecting bankrupt corporations.

KEIRETSU...!!!

karen said...

Morgan Stanley Sees San Francisco Housing Double-Dip, NYC Gains

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aNx4QAeCdnls

along with some really stupid comments by Karl Case of Case-Shiller

karen said...

read the comments on the WSJ flash crash article:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704545004575353443450790402.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us_business#articleTabs%3Dcomments

karen said...

another CHS, Credit Is Financial Crack Cocaine

Leftback said...

Exactly... a sad story from Hungary.

CHFHUF Moves Double Mortgage Payments in Hungary

karen said...

...fantasy is no substitute for reality.

Credit was all about taking the short-cut to the good life; but as America has forgotten and must re-learn, there is no short-cut to the good life; it must be earned via sacrifice, personal integrity, accountability and transparency. Everything else is illusion.

(CHS)

Anonymous said...

karen said...
on track for 1134 now : )


NOOOOOOOO!

sorry, slow reading this

Already bounce off 1116 then turn-around at/near 1122.88 (.382 1116-1134). We close lower today... right?

18

Leftback said...

and the Teflon market continues....

Anyone know why it's called the Dog Days of Summer?

Leftback said...

If we don't close lower today, I am investing with Abby Jo....

karen said...

fascinating article on swiss franc.. the currency wars are clearly out of control.. but what were these people thinking when they took those loans.. ??

72bat said...

"The Cabinet is planning a national asset management company that would pool bad loans and convert borrowers into renters with the government as the new landlord"
what is the hungarian for "fannie & freddie"?

Anonymous said...

fantasy is no substitute for reality

speaking of fantasies- I'd like to find another picture of the chick with the diploma-

preferably without the diploma- and few other things

anyway- all have a good day

karen said...

after seeing the WSJ article and reading some of the comments, I'm just glad to know I, or we, are not the only ones questioning repeated market aberrations..

and how do you explain this, really?

"I was struck by a contrast between a bond and a stock this week, which speaks to a recurring theme of recent conversations with some of our Great Investors. IBM sold three-year notes on Monday at a record low interest rate (for 3-year notes) of 1%. As The Wall Street Journal pointed out that was just 0.30 percentage point more than the yield on three-year Treasury notes. But what struck me was that IBM’s stock with its $2.60 annual dividend is yielding nearly twice what the bond is offering. As ClearBridge Advisor’s Hersh Cohen asked on WealthTrack recently, where is the long term value and where is the risk? Will you do better investing in the bond, or the stock with its history of annual dividend increases?" (Consuel Mack)

Coked up GS Trader in Hampton's with hooker on each arm said...

"it must be earned via sacrifice, personal integrity, accountability and transparency. Everything else is illusion."

I'm enjoying my illusion.

Mannwich said...

@lb: The REAL backlash against global bankers is coming at some point, probably started in another country, but it's coming.

CV said...

@ahab (10:34)

http://www.facebook.com/profile/pic.php?uid=AAAAAQAQsHrzrd0dNbXMCxlrQN9NXwAAAAqi2Z7zkIBNcZ3nPeZR5D5B

karen said...

and my fascination with JNK is undying.

Leftback said...

EUR-JPY 113.5070 0.3060 +0.27
Carry isn't predicting much of a sell-off.

The meat grinder continues (ht: Nic for that one).

what is the hungarian for "fannie & freddie"?
Bad Bankyar Magyar...? Kredit Anstalt ???
This is basically what Ireland did, bailed out about 12 developers.

Leftback said...

Ahab,

SHE'S A MAN, BABY...!

Karen,

I bet there's no JNK in your trunk.

CV said...

Losing 112.25 on the SPY was bad news foer the bulls...

It was the .009 fibo from that PREMARKET high of 113.27 (which I put in the chart yesterday)...

111.60 now in sight...

ride the coaster said...

wheeeeee! here we go!

CV said...

Then, 110.60

Mannwich said...

Whoa.

ride the coaster said...

no whoa. go!

Mr Market said...

Must ... see KAREN'S TOP .... must be revealed ...

Mannwich said...

Yet another bear trap or real deal?

Anonymous said...

CV said...
Then, 110.60


wowza!

Thx CV, ALL!

Gotta go act like I'm working and miss this :(

18

72bat said...

i'm gonna get outta my shorts if i see karen's top

Leftback said...

Is this the DEEP DIVE Blythe Masters was talking about?

CV said...

@manny

If it gets all the way back to karens top... I'm probably going to go long...

CV said...

I'm guessing that come hell or high water the SPX closes right on (or slightly above 1110)...

Right Amen? :-)

72bat said...

well, if take off my shorts, i might just get long too

CV said...

WEEKLY CANDLE looking like a "hanging man" thus far...

Anonymous said...

drop almost to 1109.12 (.618 1098-1116) ...strange

I'm late!

18

Mannwich said...

Flash Crash part deux anyone?

CV said...

@Manny

You'd 900 more DOW points

CV said...

I'm thinking it's mostly housekeeping...

CV said...

The cash is just catching up with the futures now...

CV said...

Your TLT likes it though

CV said...

Looks like we may see KT after all

Mannwich said...

Yes, I know, cv. Was being facetious and asking if we were up for one.

Mannwich said...

Yes, it does, cv. And Mannwich likes it too.

karen said...

spy 110 might hold.. should hold.. since this is a typical market in typical recovery.. undergoing a typical correction..

my lawn man just said.. hey, i heard another rumour.. that you guys are divorced..

i said, well, kind of.. but i gotta run back to my crashing market and will talk to you next week.

CV said...

@karen (11:12)

LOL

karen said...

hmm, maybe now that the town knows i'm available someone will fix me up with some rich guy.. : )

CV said...

@karen

110.60 (spy) would be a fibo extension from where I'm sitting...

But I wouldn't be surprised to see an overshoot of that either...

Anyway - I think you're right... I think there has been enough of the short term OVERSOLD aspects worked off with this move...

I-Man said...

This was all fib to a T.

CV said...

So basically I think we'll get a last wave, slightly lower (but not as scary) and then call it quits...

The only thing that makes me worry about going long is the EUR-USD being so rich...

CV said...

@I-Man

WORD (love it when that happens)... :-)

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen,

You should move to Omaha before he gives it all away...

Mannwich said...

@Bruce: I'll be down there next month and will put in a good word for karen. Heck, I'll put in a good word for all of us.

72bat said...

'divorced' necessarily = available?

I-Man said...

Yeah, its pretty cool:

On the 1min chart, do a fib retacement, high to low, on both the pivot highs today...

And look for where they line up...

Thats your next short. The 61.8 of the most recent one.

Mr Market said...

If I can just get a little deeper, I would be able to see Karen's Top...

I-Man said...

But when IT ALL lines up in harmony with the 55ema, and a 45 degree gann...

Oooooh La La.

The oceans breathing salty today...

karen said...

Bruce, Warren and his wife visited across the street recently.. she came in a bright pink sweat suit or something comparable.. i think he met her in a donut shop.. anyway, my friends (employees of estate) said they were both delightful.. of course, when you are one of the richest women on the planet, you don't need to put on airs !! they came with bill and melinda.. a garden tour i believe.. my friends had to wait on everyone : )

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Manny,

Tell that old coot if he wants to give his money away, forget charity...give it to small business owners who need a loan, and they will give to charity, both them and the new employees they hire...

I-Man said...

I-Man eats Buffet's for lunch.

Leftback said...

Anyone think BUCKY dips below 80 to the 79.6 support area?
Once BUCKY rallies, things could be awkward for GOLDFINGER.

Have to hand it to GARTERMAN, he said don't be short of the yen.
That was about 7 yens ago. Nice one, Denis.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen,

I would loove to see Gates in one of those CEO goes undercover and does the scutwork jobs...I suspect he'd be hilarious.

karen said...

Must read! US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) secretary Shaun Donovan said the government will issue a mortgagee letter soon implementing a new "FHA Short Refinance" program.

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/08/06/hud-secretary-donovan-refinancing-program-coming-very-soon

CV said...

@karen

Yeah, but do they have a tilapia farm...

Ask yourself that! huh? huh? Well? Do they? :-)

Leftback said...

....i think he met her in a donut shop

She was trying to meet a cop!

Agreed 100% with B in T - Small Biz makes America great.
This is the worst government for small biz in 200 years.

72bat said...

k -
who is it actually owns la casa pacifica these days? does bebe still have an interest?

Leftback said...

You can just see Bill Gates cleaning keyboards and trying to write a security patch for Windows...

"my God, this thing's a monster, who created this behemoth...?"

WINDOWS, CITIBANK, AIG, GE, GM, GS, HARVARD, FNM, MOODY'S...

What do they have in common. Too big, too much hubris.
Break them up. All of them.

Mannwich said...

Great point, Bruce. How about some third-world style microloans at favorable rates from old Warren?

Mannwich said...

Maybe I'll inquire with Warren about a biz loan while I'm down there?

AmenRa said...

LB

With the 10yr yield now at 2.82% how does that affect next weeks auction?

karen said...

I used to dine with the owners of the estate myself when I was married.. LOL.. as a matter of fact.. I was the last one to leave his 75th birthday luncheon.. he sat there opening the gifts while his lovely wife and I continued imbibing.. I wrote down who gave what but could hardly read my writing the next day...to be expected after Steven (my chef friend that now works for the golfer) switched me over to tequila and tonics!

Mannwich said...

What if we've simply reached a point where there isn't enough productive activitives (Namely jobs) for our adult-age population? I keep coming back to this question and can't answer it. Anyone?

Leftback said...

Ra,

We would be sellers of Ts ahead of next week's auction - unless a large sinkhole opens up at Broad and Wall, swallowing up entire buildings and reducing effective leverage of prop desks and hedge funds...

Usually we sell 'safe havens' into the Friday close....

Yes, we will hedge.

karen said...

bat, La Casa Pacifica has been owned by Gavin Herbert for 30 years now.. ex ceo of AGN (I believe he and his father founded Allergan.)

http://www.worldisround.com/articles/186962/text.html

Leftback said...

Manny,

Europeanize. It's that simple...

Shorter work week. Longer vacations. Lower pay.
Break up large finance corporations. More local start-ups.
Fewer Squid. More fresh calamari.

Otherwise - we are ALL going to be realtors, strippers or traders.
Not healthy.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Meanwhile, in the prognosis dept.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100805/bs_nm/us_usa_retail

The increased discounting that began in June and continued last month is reminiscent of the troubles that plagued retailers during the worst of the recession.

"We're back to a game of chicken between consumers and retailers over discounts," said David Bassuk, who leads consulting firm AlixPartners' global retail practice. "We're going to have a slow, painful back-to-school season."

...I guess my thought here when I look at retail, and housing, and jobs is that the cautious man has done ok here the last 24 months or so, we are still a long way from 14k, and it is becoming apparent that the massive stimulus was all that produced much of an impact. Unfortunately, there is that little conundrum of stimulus now, more problems in the near future...and this being a time of repudiation of debt.

..Next time, I will build my house of brics....

CV said...

@LB

....i think he met her in a donut shop

She was trying to meet a cop!

---

You're missing the larger picture... What would svelte karen ever be doing in a donut shop?

Besides looking for Christina Romer's autograph, of course...

I-Man said...

The people must learn to farm, live in harmony with Jah earth.

Mannwich said...

I agree, lb, but it ain't gonna happen here, at least not overnight without a fight. Different culture here.

Leftback said...

Tempted to cover my shorts here and buy some GREY POUPON.

Not KAREN in a donut shop. Mrs Buffett.
KAREN has probably never been in a donut shop.
Arugula stand, yes...

McFearless said...

did someone say blythe masters?

Mannwich said...

On point, I-Man. In fact, Manny plans to cut into the back lawn next summer and significantly expand the veggie garden. Time to take the plunge and do it right.

Although this year something is munching on my nice ripened tomoatoes on the vine. Not happy about that development. Anyone have any ideas on how to address that?

Mannwich said...

Here's a shocker for everyone here, I know. LOL.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/06/fannie-mae-home-prices-to_n_672776.html

Leftback said...

Manny,

There is no choice this time. The FIRE economy is history.
Government support of a fascist corpocracy is un-American.

No taxation by King Lloyd without representation.
JOIN or DIE. Don't Tread On Me...

CV said...

@Manny

"What if we've simply reached a point where there isn't enough productive activitives (Namely jobs) for our adult-age population? I keep coming back to this question and can't answer it. Anyone?"

I say... send 'em to Carousel... But that's just me...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSnLU9nyFSA

McFearless said...

any of you seen this before?

http://www.prosper.com/welcome/how_it_works.aspx

Blythe Masters said...

CV,

Have you seen my panties?

I-Man said...

Sounds like the work of Jah slug, Manny...

After dark tonight, go out to your plants with a flashlight... you might find a veritable slug party going on.

You can pick em off and kill them, or set "beer traps" for them.

(Just cut off the bottom quarter of a beer can, and leave some beer in there. The slugs can resist the beer, they crawl in and drown.)

I-Man said...

Ben, yes, I know alot about prosper. A friend of mine has both lended and borrowed there.

McFearless said...

blythe masters may in fact be stronger than chuck norris' beard

McFearless said...

I,

how did it work out for him?

karen said...

What I meant was she was working in the donut shoppe!!

I'm frustrated.. Ben, I gotta forward this "thing" I just got from my MS friend.. you can decide if anyone else would be interested..

it starts out with some baloney on Abraham Lincoln..

I-Man said...

Could be deer too, Manny, if there are alot of those around. But they'll rip whole branches off.

CV said...

"Otherwise - we are ALL going to be realtors, strippers or traders..."

Can I get a triple PhD in those subjects? Any course offerings?

McFearless said...

abe lincoln, not a wizard, but I'll take a look :)

I-Man said...

@ Ben

He loves it.

I tried that avenue for my loan, and didnt have any success.

Its got to be a really clear cut thing.

Mannwich said...

Thanks for the tip, I-Man! I'll give a try.

@lb: I agree there's no choice now, which means it will be painful, as our culture fights it.

Blythe Masters said...

How ya like me now?

http://www.stampalibera.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/BDF-blythe-masters.jpg

Leftback said...

(Just cut off the bottom quarter of a beer can, and leave some beer in there. The slugs can resist the beer, they crawl in and drown.)

Sounds like I-and-I buddies on a pub crawl..... sometimes it ends in DRUNKEN KARAOKE. Can you imagine that, Karen?

Mannwich said...

@ben: Yes, I've looked into them. A friend of mine referred me to that site. Found it interesting. Haven't applied though.

Leftback said...

Blythe went to Trinity, they are really up themselves.
Toffs college...

CV said...

We'll see pretty soon if the market has found a low for today...

My spider sense says we go a little lower...

But not much... KT-ville...

Mannwich said...

@I-Man: Probably not deer, since we're still in the outskirts of the city, although neighbors have said they've seen a couple before roaming around, although not recently. I'll bet it's slugs having a little late night party out there at my tomatoes' expense. Didn't have this problem at all last year.

CV said...

I-Man is CORRECT about the beer trap...

Also, crush some eggshells... They won't slither around anything that's going to cut them into ribbons...

Mannwich said...

Some of these names during the crisis seem straight out of a Dickens novel.

Mannwich said...

Good one, cv. I'll try that as well.

karen said...

Jeff, per your 11:51, can't be allowed to happen cuz it'll mean a dbl dip.

"Alan Greenspan, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve, weighed in on the state of the American economy, saying that it is currently going through a “pause” in a modest recovery, which feels like a “quasi-recession”. He gave warning that a double-dip recession could occur if house prices declined again."

Leftback said...

Mr Market is peeking down, you know he wants to go there.
The view from where he is must be absolutely perfect....

I-Man said...

I think my problem with prosper, was that prospective lenders only look at the concrete stuff, w2's, credit history, that sort of shit...

I needed a lender that could see the "upside" in the deal.

Leftback said...

Diatomaceous earth. Egg shells are easier.

CV said...

"going through a “pause” in a modest recovery, which feels like a “quasi-recession”.

I guess that's what MR MAGOO would see, right?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Investors-Are-Still-Behaving-nytimes-811354384.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=

Investors Are Still Behaving Badly

"Every year the research firm Dalbar does a study that tries to quantify the impact of investor behavior on real-life returns by comparing investors' earnings to the average investment (using the S&P 500 as a proxy).

The latest study looks at the 20-year period that ended Dec. 31, 2009:Average investment return = 8.20%Average equity investor return = 3.17%"

...2000-2010...not so good

...1965-1980...Zero?

..I really dislike these stories that pick time frames...I think this is economic journalism at its shallowest...

McFearless said...

I-man,

iow, an "angel" with the problem being those folks are typically only wanting to get involved with big money.

Mannwich said...

Anyone else think it was interesting to see Romer step down? Isn't it amazing that old Larry Summers continues to thrive within the administration, even though everything he touches turns to shit? It's incredible to me. He must be one "talented" bullshitter.

CV said...

@Bruce

No... SC is economic journalism at its shallowest...

karen said...

ADP is paying over 3%.. safe money?

I-Man said...

I dont know if its necessarily a big money thing, but they arent going to take a risk is all I'm saying.

My friend needed to borrow 17k to help pay for some legal shit, but he had good W2 stats, and no debt, so he was able to get a loan through prosper.

The amount of money I was looking for didnt match up well with my W2 info, so it was a no go.

Larry the Lizard said...

Fat Chicks Can't Do Math

Larry Summers said...

I am a big old bag of shit. I always have been.
But I have pictures of Timmy wearing panties.

McFearless said...

Mannwich,

I'm holding my opinion on the Romer departure because I'm wondering if she takes a job on the street somewhere, if that doesn't happen yes, her leaving right now is a little odd to me.

Anonymous said...

That picture of Summers in the thread looks like he's really unleashing a whopper.

McFearless said...

sorry man, was jumping around, I flipped to talking about angel investors, I spoke with one once and was trying to buy a practice that produced a million a year in rev, wasn't big enough for him to be interested.

I think this prosper is pretty neat, I like the idea of peer to peer lending.

CV said...

@Amen

Speaking of Blythe Masters...

Looks like JPM is about to do a 3lb reversal on the DAILY charts...

Leftback said...

Romer slated to replace Dame Janet at the San Francisco Fed....

PERFECT... another printer.

karen said...

sometimes i really hate myself.. i owned a ton of cmp in the 20s.. now in the 70s

and why aren't we all buy T ? with its 6% plus div ?

CV said...

And if that's the case (JPM)...

With it only having done a 50% fib re-trace back to the highs (and looking kind of ABC-ish there)...

Probably the BEST to hope for will be some kind of lateral zig zag action...

What do you think McF?

Mannwich said...

I like the idea as well, ben. Just not sure how well it's working in reality. Interesting concept though.

CV said...

"Romer slated to replace Dame Janet at the San Francisco Fed....

PERFECT... another printer."

---

As long as she doesn't XEROX her ass on the copy machine, she can do all the printing she wants...

karen said...

is consumer credit a market mover? ben, don't answer that : )

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/obama-calls-private-sector-job-growth-good-sign-2010-08-06

Obama calls private-sector job growth 'good sign'

"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Job growth in the private sector is a "good sign," President Barack Obama said Friday, but progress needs to be much faster for American families and workers."

...I think someone is grasping and gasping...

Leftback said...

Nothing like rewarding failure with another nice government job.
Rather similar to the plan for bankers.

Fail, bail, sail....

Mr Market said...

Consumer credit at 3pm.

Anyone got guesses? If it's really bad I am just going to go and dive deep down into Karen's top and stay there until the close.

Leftback said...

Tighten the stops at 2.55...
Twin risks of PPT and consumer credit report.

CV said...

Fail, bail, sail...

Why?

Because they're TOO BIG TO JAIL...

McFearless said...

C, what time frame on the JPM?

karen said...

this out at 12:01

Goldman Sachs has cut GDP forecasts for 2011 to 1.9% from 2.4%, via CNBC.
Note: Early reports suggested Goldman had cut their projections for 2010 GDP growth. We have since been unable to confirm those numbers, and have removed them.


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-revises-us-gdp-forecast-for-2010-downward-2010-8#ixzz0vqOa5DGL

Leftback said...

Trading in the 30y is very compressed lately. The range has been a low of 3.87% in the panics up to about 4.10%. Selling pre-auction isn't likely to break the top of that range unless Ben starts the helicopter.

McFearless said...

left, re: dollar, maybe it even trends right into the 78ish area, not nec. my call but that area is interesting if you look at a 3 year chart.

karen said...

Social unrest is growing:

The Question on Aug 6, 12:05 PM said:
What does Main Street have to do to Wall Street to make it feel the same kind of pain that Main Street has been feeling for the last two years? What will it take to destroy the families, jobs, homes, hopes and incomes of those on Wall Street the way they have done to Main Street? How does Main Street take that away from Wall Street? I’m not advocating anything, just asking the question.

qussl3 on Aug 6, 12:29 PM said:
@The Question: End mark to fantasy and the finance sector will get religion real quick.

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-revises-us-gdp-forecast-for-2010-downward-2010-8#comments#ixzz0vqOttkFh

Bob Pisani said...

If consumer credit comes in WTE, traders on the floor might take that as a POSITIVE sign for equities...

Leftback said...

1.9%... more or less the inflation premium currently priced in TIPS.
LB thinks we will be in recession by Q1 2011 after the Winter Orgy.

You can make an argument that TIPS are overpriced, as in 2008.

CV said...

@McF (12:29)

I don't know... Perhaps .618 of one month - up to a month...

I don't know the RULES on ABC's...

I'm just going by the "look" of the daily chart...

CV said...

@McF

All I know is this JPM

- It hit a 50% fib retrace back to it's April high
- It's REVERSING (3lb daily) as we speak
- The move from the bottom "looks" ABC-ish
- The price level it's at right now is the level it LAUNCHED at last July ('09), and it looks like it's struggling to hold on here

Cv tends to watch JPM a lot because they're the "anointed ones"...

Mannwich said...

Watched "Food, Inc." earlier this week. Pretty sobering stuff. Anyone else see that?

DL said...

"End mark to fantasy and the finance sector will get religion real quick"

. . . . . . .

Problem is, if we end "mark to fantasy", then Wall Street will need another bailout.

CV said...

@McF

Maybe GOLD going ballistic again is blowing out their shorts...

Mannwich said...

@DL: And will get one.

I-Man said...

Watch the bulls get burned on this (apparent) double bottom on the intraday chart...

Let the shorts fly at the 61.8...

McFearless said...

C, yes, it's corrective looking for sure

here you go as a good resource for a lot of the basics:

http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics3.htm

CV said...

@karen

Goldman Sachs has cut GDP forecasts for 2011 to 1.9% from 2.4%, via CNBC.

Oh that's great... When OBAMA sold everyone that bag of shit stimulus package last year, and then said he'd cut the deficit in half, it was based on OMB projections of something like 4%+ GDP growth annually for the next decade...

Try running a Dairy Queen first you moron...

Stiglitz said...

CV,

You moron.

We need MORE bailouts.

CV said...

@McF

I was going to say "corrective"... Simply based on my understanding that if it were a "3" (which it started out to look like) petered out...

That ain't no 3...

Which means people... We have a canary in a coalmine here... JPM...

DL said...

The "Horn of Africa" approaches.

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