Who knows how the BLS will manage to fanagle this one?... As for CV, this "team" is the only I'm interested in seeing get pink slips...
Anyway, if the man in the "E-I-E-I-O" Suite needs any help on how to do a TEAM firing, this is how it's done!
But you'd have to toss in this guy as well...
That video is, at this point, ancient history, but it's needed in this moment as we are soon likely to hear the same person tell us why the next round of spending the wealth of future generations to feed his bosses ego is so necessary at this juncture...
To bring to further along the story line, here are the same two protagonists in another encounter:
For all the "non-PHD's" out there, I'd like the Chairman to explain the BREAKING NEWS: caption that is on the screen at the (2:31) mark... "Fed might respond by raising rates"...
Now... Can you jive that with this story?
Namely, that BlackRock (custodian of the Maiden Lane 1 portfolio) is actively rolling off interest rate hedges...
Jan 29 Hedges
March 31 Hedges
"As the cost to roll and retain these hedges is negligible, especially since taxpayers are paying the cost of carry, this kind of lack of fiduciary prudence is cause for alarm. Either the Fed is convinced there is no chance in hell rates will ever go higher, or it is perfectly happy to risk impairing a $28 billion portfolio from a spike in interest rates."...
Further on the subject of Maiden Lane...
On April 2, 2008, Chairman Bernanke and "then" New York Fed President Timothy Geithner told senators that the tens of billions of dollars in “assets” the government agreed to purchase in the rescue of Bear Stearns Cos. were “investment-grade.”.
Now we find that some of these, namely HG-Coll Ltd. 2007-1A, were in fact CDO's and mortgage-backed bonds & that more than $40 million already had been reduced to less than investment-grade.
The law states the Fed is not permitted to lend unsecured. To anyone. PERIOD!
Per Sections 13 and 14, the Fed also can't buy anything without a full faith and credit guarantee.
It's probably going to take a PHD to explain to people how credit default swaps qualify under that (which is, of course why you have MAIDEN LANES in the first place). The Fed set these up and then "lent money" to them to dance around The Federal Reserve Act.
Forget about the "legality" of what is being done... Let's talk about the consequences of the custodianship... If they're trying to save a few pennies by not hedging the portfolio against interest rate hikes (which, with a FED FUNDS RATE near zero would mean that even a quarter point hike would blow the portfolio to smithereens), then it basically means that rates are on hold... FOREVER... (and probably "double secret QE2" is coming soon and frankly, has ALWAYS been in the cards)...
Of course this may not be all that sinister... One could re-establish these hedges at any given moment...
But it tells you something about how these charlatans operate...
Be careful out there!
365 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 365 of 365 Newer› Newest»@McF (1:18)
OK then... We're actually close to being on the same page...
So I think the DECISION is all a matter of how much one is LEVERED into scraping the meat off a wave 5 bone...
Little meat perhaps, but with the right kind of LESSER RISK LEVERAGE... It might reward sitting tight...
Frankly, that math plays out about 1:1 for me (which is why I'm not real nervous about timing a temporary bottom here)...
fundamentally, crude should be trading between 40-60.. it is so maddening to me. but that's what ya get with negative interest rates.
yes, i can see $gaso at stockcharts.. but it's yesterday's candle.
just sold some dxd..
C,
it's not a hard fast "rule" but yeah you would
right now though, as a very basic tool, volume is serving as a fantastic indicator.
wise... I'm smelling buy programs...
that was in response to the question about pos. divergence.
dude this market is weaker than coors lite.
C, on the other side of this thread, when the VIX is really low like that we should be trading options instead of ETF's due to the time decay issue.
I'm not doing shit now until we are either over 1016 or below 1010.
@I
Was that wise directed towards me?
@CV
I fully think your 992 target is spot on. However, I think a run up to 1050 range before it goes down.
If we just had a third wave extension, which I think is quite possible, then we should go back up to the previous 4th (around 1050) before another slide where 5=1 in this case 1 = (1131-1067) 64. 1050-ish - 64 = 990-ish.
But I know absolutely nothing as was proven since June 8th so I am off to clean a dirty bum.
p.s. remember I sold my shorts - go short everyone!
top step:
http://www.youtube.com/user/optionmonstertv
@ McH
It was in response to K sellin some dxd.
But I'm done with tape commentary for today unless the above happens.
@Manny (1:20)
But why not just let the GOP take seats and press their face to the grill on adopting another stimulus?
IMO - The GOP is as FOS as the liberals...
They'll be spending hawks all the way up to the elections to win some seats... Then when they do, they'll CAVE in the exact same way when it's THEIR ASS on the line with regards to jobs and the economy...
It's all a friggin merry go round...
i can't even watch that right now.. holding my breath on crude.. and dxd isn't even where i just sold it tho indu is lower..
@IMan
"dude this market is weaker than coors lite."
LOL - Packaged for UTAH sales to boot!
I told you before too (no response)...
I be drinkin' RED STRIPE at the moment mon!
I can assure you that no coor's lite touches my tongue.. or bud lite.. laughing.
the GOP is going to blow itself up it would seem to me.
i got my limit order on dto at 86.. and i bet it goes higher but that would satisfy me..
but its the silver bullet
McFearless @ 1:03
As much as Obama likes to bail out anything that moves, he’s not going to be enthusiastic about bailing out muni investors. The people who buy munis are mostly “fat cats” who are trying to avoid paying Federal taxes, so he’s going to be loath to bail out such people.
I followed this guy a lot in 2008, he made a lot of really good calls:
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/richard-suttmeier-still-targeting-dow-8500-%22but-i-may-have-to-ratchet-it-down%22-515588.html?tickers=%5EDJI,%5EGSPC,GLD,INTC,MSFT,GE,CSX&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
@DL
Frankly... I'm not sure he's even smart enough to probe it to those depths...
DL,
yes, I agree re: muni's, and that's what makes that situation so scary....we need to keep a close eye on what is going on there I'm thinking.
crafty whores... I knew they were going to take a shot at it.
Was able to get in @ 1014.75... still dont know if I should take the 1016.25 if I get it, or if they are going to gun it...
"I'm not sure he's even smart enough to probe it to those depths... "
that's what Lawrence Summers is there for.
@ CV
Big up to the redstripe bro... :)
If we do decide to bail out the states, my question would be this:
Do the 50 states bail out the United States, or does the United States bail out the 50 states?
I'm a little unclear on that point.
Ben
Yes still holding. Should've stopped out yesterday and reentered this morning. Still up though.
I'm trolling again in the retail space looking for shorts....
Jesus Christ I don't know WTF these people are waiting for...
I GUARANTEE YOU... GUARANTEE!...
That there's enough time left in the day here to "mini-flash crash" this thing down to a 9 handle, and then have a massive short covering rally begin...
Hammer bottom - everyone goes home happy on the weekend... Rally even thru next week and into the start of earnings season...
WTF?
Let it happen! If we keep dicking around here between 1010 - 1020 NOBODY is going to be happy!
@McF (1:36)
LOL
I heard Barney Frank is also good at probing depths...
I'm a big Labatt Blue fan, mostly though I'd rather just have a vodka.
do the machines smell weakness, or are they going to retreat again?
@cv & ben: Of course, they're ALL (both parties) are full of shit now. No disputing that. Got popcorn?
CV @ 1:39.. i'm with you on that hammer idea..
DL,
maybe they run it through the IMF just so its easier to spin it all in the media.
man I'm glad I didn't take today off, this is pretty good action right here, long way to 4 pm still.
@DL
"Do the 50 states bail out the United States, or does the United States bail out the 50 states?"
Governors of 35 states have already filed suit against the Federal Government for imposing unlawful burdens upon them. (It only takes 38 of the 50 States to convene a Constitutional Convention).
That about "summarizes" where we are at the moment on that...
@McF
TROLL in the AIRLINES dude...
I'd SHORT the "F" out of CAL here... (Disclosure: NO POSITION)
alright, back in a bit, gotta go home to finish today out, need to beat the beach traffic on 95 today.
Smaller municipalities go bust first, then cities and states.
The Treasury is the last one to go. This will take time....
The austerity programs are already being planned, you can expect:
Delayed retirement
Means tested social security cuts for higher incomes
Renegotiation of state/city benefit packages
Value Added Taxes, Luxury Taxes etc..
Slashed social programs, except for unemployment/training
But we will see severe stress in Munis before this gets enacted.
Greece is another living laboratory, UK and Japan too.
You can learn a lot, just by watching.
I'm not really in the mood for a kale smoothie, but i can't think of anything else that can fill me up right now.. well, i can but that's probably not an appropriate topic for this blog, laughing.
btw, looking to rebuy those 2k dxd shares i sold at 31.88..
If you don't think we're going to see a "9" handle before we see 1050...
Explain to me the C candle (on a 60 min. chart)...
draw it back about 10 days for a better perspective...
this could be it.. heading back down now..
all of a sudden the day seems to be picking up speed.. less than 2 hours to go!
@k
x2
@k
Frankly - when I went to bed last night, I didn't expect much from today...
It's becoming more interesting as the day progresses...
Maybe all a big tease, but I'm more interested now than I was at 8:30 this morning...
@lb: Um, you forgot "widespread social strife" and "riots" in that list. Many of us were "early on those calls too but they ARE coming.
Bankers get bailouts and same lifestyles, Sheeple gets the middle finger. This will NOT be pretty as it unfolds.
@Manny
"Um, you forgot "widespread social strife" and "riots" in that list."
---
all in GOOD FUN of course...
that C candle has got to be a bad tick! look at a one minute chart.
my kale smoothie is the equivalent of popcorn! so chewy! and it seems to be disappearing just as quickly as popcorn, too..
Come on Bernocchio... give I-Man some magic bid action...
Anyone want to know what the "real" rates are on the 30 year? Talk to a non TBTF bank that keeps its loans like I just did. They quoted 5.9% on the 30 year, while Wells quoted 4.8%. Why the difference? Anyone?
That non-TBTF bank tried selling me a 40 year (yes FORTY year) mortgage at 3.69%, but here's the catch - that rate is tied to prime, so it floats. I've never heard of such a loan. Has anyone else?
Pretty please, Uncle Ben? Had a rough month with the XLF and GLD Brain told me to buy...
@k
I disagree (bad tick)...
Because the wick lines up well with other candles...
...and for reference (compare the CLOSING levels to the 4.049 level from 9 days ago - oddly close to the 4.03 level that the Treasury were boasting about having distributed 1b shares at)...
If the CLOSING candle stays "pinned" under that trendline (downward from that date)...
CV would be saying "Things that make you go hmmm"...
I have a secret plan for eliminating the deficit.
I'll tell you all about it right after the midterm election.
That last 1021 print might have been "all she wrote"
1020 was SUPPORT yesterday, now it might be resistance...
During the Great Depression most mortgages were fixed for 5 years and then floated, and so were refinanced.
Of course the reset was irrelevant, b/c rates were so low. That's where we are and where we are going. Recovery, my arse...
Interesting, lb. Looks as if some banks are copying that time period and preparing for similar times?
it's getting really wild now.. oh my..
I asked her why they weren't offering competitive rates on the 30 year and she said that the kept their loans and weren't getting the same gov't help that the TBTF's are getting. She mentioned that we were living in "strange times". If she only knew how much I agree.....
@lb
x2
Cv can't wait for the 10y to hit a "1" handle...
Then I might take out a mortgage on the farm :-)
My current mortgage is tied to LIBOR at 5.25%. Resets in April '12. I wonder if my rates could actually go DOWN by then instead of go much higher? Like a roll of the dice.....
Mannwich @ 2:36
Why a loan tied to LIBOR, rather than a fixed rate? You sure we're going the way of Japan?
@manny
2012? No sweat! An asteriod will come along and annihilate civilization by then...
You're looking good! :-)
Great. So why pay any underwriting fees then? Might as well use the dough to party on!
Looks like 33 Liberty has taken the wheel...
@DL: Our original loan in '05 was/is tied to LIBOR. Resets in '12. Am thinking of locking in a 30 year at these levels and prepare for QE2.
manny,
I think that is going on with auto loans as well, secure an auto loan with chase or someone like that vs. your credit union and see how the rates compare.
Buy 2000 DXD Executed @ $31.6499
i just had to give this a try into the close..
it feels like something big in either direction is going to play out before the close, but I usually try to invert my "feelings"
maybe 31.47 would have been a better target..
i feel like something big, too!
is going to happen, i mean.
Mannwich,
I would just refinance with a fixed rate. Too much risk with a variable rate.
more magic numbers, this time, the number 7:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9mioHO4hoM
Look, it was always completely effing obvious that interest rates would stay low:
1) Option ARM resets would blow up housing again.
2) Higher rates would blow up the banks' swap positions.
3) China would blow up b/c of their Tsy and agency holdings.
4) USD reserve currency status.
5) Increased domestic savings.
FEAR me, Morgan Stanley.
Do not trade against the mighty LB.
@DL: Yeah, looks like we're headed in that direction but I was stunned at the difference in 30 year rates between the TBTF and non-TBTF. Amazing.
re: 40 yr mortgage
I think it's fair to say that one thing all home buyers in need of a loan likely remember is when you go to closing and you sign the paper that shows your loan amount and then how much you'll actually pay over the life of the loan, it stings for a minute or two and then you are sucked back in to the euphoria of buying the home....or that's how it used to be....we'll see if it stays that way.
Mannwich @ 2:47
Actually, I wasn't aware that the difference was so great. What that means though is that Obama could impose higher taxes on the TBTF banks, and those banks would be able to pass those taxes on to J6P.
@DL: Which is probably what will happen. The entire corrupt edifice of Wall Street and our gov't needs to be smashed but it won't happen until things are TRULY fucked on a mass scale in this country.
This would also explain the absence of ANY mortgage broker cold calls trying to get us to re-fi our loan. Only the TBTF's are likely in a position to do it or even want to do it at these fake low rates.
Any calls during this latest downturn in rates, that is.....they called almost EVERY day the last time rates were around this low. Now? Nothing? Nada. Zip. Zilch. Crickets.
okay, this is torture.. and scary.. thanks for the brief comic relief, ben. you got home quickly, btw! i'm afraid to even take a shower.
So I'd be 80 years old if I re-fi'd into a 40 year mortgage and stayed in it til paid off. LOL.
Not seeing anything huge really, maybe 10 handles in either direction.
Either 1008 or 1026 on ES from my perch.
I was tempted to grab the 15 year at 4.25% at Wells. Anyone have any thoughts about that one? I just didn't want the higher minimum payment though.
I'd bet on upside if I had to, but I'm done for today.
Karen,
I don't live too far from my office and I was hauling ass so I could get back in case something happened.
But I suppose a 1017.50 to 1013.50 range thru the end of the day would frustrate the most participants, so thats probably the outcome.
Mannwich @ 2:58
You've got to consider it on an after-tax basis. Also, if you have a 20-year or 30-year mortgage, you can make additional payments over and above the minimum (if you are inclined)
July 12-14, auctions of 3y, 10y and 30y.
The backtracking in yields will begin in earnest late next week, if not sooner. Bond traders are likely to move out into higher yield issues for a couple of weeks here.
lb, I think your call about hedging the govies here, at least for a trade is going to be spot on.
oops.. spx set to jump higher once above 1023, i think.. we'll see if we can get to that trick 1026..
Good point, DL. The 20 year rate was 4.7, so not much lower than the 30 year. Think we'll just go 30 year to be safe and make higher payments if/when we decide to.....
Seems like the safer bet in these times.
Jeff, weren't you thinking of selling ? is that off the table? what are the points on these loans.. that is how you figure if the refi makes sense..
dxd is attempting to hold the 50 ema uptrend line on the 10 min chart.. toss a coin, i guess.
Mannwich,
Plus, you can take all that extra money that would have gone to mortgage payments, and put it in the stock market.
(Ha)
No points, karen. With 1 point the rate would be 4.6.
We had been thinking of selling but the market is terrible here now. Nothing is moving. Think the safer bet is to re-fi and sit tight, and we HAVE to move for jobs, rent out the place or keep it as a home base and telecommute to whereever. It would actually make for a good rental. The problem is that there's a glut of rental apts here right now and they're still building more! Insanity.
feeling that the SPX ready to bust loose soon, prolly up
So the fees to re-fi to 4.8 would actually be quite low.
Manny
Do the 15y refi - you won't notice the extra after you cut out a few lattes. Or IPAs... and then the tax rebate will buy you a home brewing kit.
seems as tho the short etfs are breaking down now.. last half hour will be interesting..
The low is in for this swing in credit and equities.
Have sold some long bonds, added some HY, now shorting Ts and also short the JPY. Time to abandon the havens....
Anon @ 3:26
You gave yourself away by using that word "prolly".
there was a mini rev h&s on the spx that just played out so we actually could drop again.. i know, i know, i'm really into those formations.
LB @ 3:28
That's a bold call.
Not saying it's wrong, just bold.
(I'm actually inclined to agree)
What a fun day. Netherlands takes out Brazil and Ghana hits a huge shot at the end of the half.
S&P? TBP putting up the H&S charts was the kiss of death for anyone banking on that pattern.
DXY has a few more weeks of downside at least. Probably going to 82.
AT,
I think though that everyone is focused on the wrong H&S, they are all looking at the small one, it's the giant H&S that fits the best....
that's like double secret probation or something
Barton Biggs, massive contrarian indicator, the guy was saying BUY BUY BUY at the top:
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajdiv16mvWC8&pos=3
Consolidation between 1010 and 1040 for a while, possible break back up to the KT in quiet summer trade. HY credit is the sweet spot.
All set to enjoy a nice friday preholiday spliff... and then the market calls me back...
Its a hard life.
:)
Now this is fast money... (insert sinister laughter...)
No... actually the last half hour... I'm sure...
Has been about a lot of SMART TRADERS... Looking at things and evaluating the "fundamentals" of the market...
You know... Crunching profit margins, PE's, EBITDA's, and labor reports...
and thinking...
OMG - This market needs to rally 10 handles on the SPOOS...
Because it's so HONEST... And governed by honest regulatory oversight...
All the way up to the POTUS (who's the most honest human being ever to grace the planet earth)...
okay, now that little mini rev h&s played out to it's fullest.. we'll see. gold seems to be saying bring on the QE.. maybe the market is inclined to agree!
Barton Biggs = AJC
@lb & DL: Yeah, I've been thinking about just doing the 15 year. It's more against the grain, which I like.
now who wouldn't love to see some ramp job challenge into yesterday's high. say it together now.
It feels dirty but I love it...
Gets any dirtier and might have to change my name to I-Mane...
@McF
whatever...
I'm just disgusted at all how pathetic it is...
USA, USA, USA.....
Nothing like going green right before the Independence Day holiday weekend.
Bot job. They are about to sell...
No longs, no shorts - as we head to BRIAN'S for the JULY 4 BBQ.
JOHNNY might want to get into Munis now.
Can LB interest you in a nice plump wiener from the grill, Karen?
1026.25 good enough for me... wont stick it out for any more.
uup is attempting a revival.. and i disagree with you Andy on the dxy.. i think it's due for a bounce.. I'd be surprised if $usd got as low as 83.. and euro bounce may be done.
interesting daily candle on spy... previous black dojis don't inspire a lot of confidence for an upside break..
EURJPY and USDJPY have some room to roam for a few weeks.
The whole European bond business will return in due course.
USD yields will rise into the auctions.
UST, sorry.
C,
it's just the waves man, look at the structure of this move up....you could see it right between 1019 and 1023
I wonder if we'll see some massive peeling off of short positions here into the wknd...
I like these trailing stops... very nice.
Already happened.
A little pull back as the longs sell - and then we are done.
this market is weak if you ask me, will be planning over the weekend if this rally can take us to something decent to sell into.
Gets you out before the herd... keeps you from giving back all your gains...
tesla motors is sub 20, I guess the buzz is certainly wearing of for a few out there on that one...ouch.
just like that...
Great call, I.
Fear is back. Anything resembling a rally is being sold. It's the anti-'09.
Precision counts in this tape...
A one tick mistake in my target sell lim @ 1026.25 cost me some good coin.
Should have lowered it.
@McF
F*** the sub minuettes of the sub minuettes...
It looks to me like a classic ramp job...
Enjoy your BBQ...
In the end, it doesn't bother me (because I has no position on it worth noting (in the short term)...
I know what's coming...
I'm just tired of these thieves doing these dickless little con job moves whenever their dickless little transaction maneuvers will allow...
some music to go into your weekend:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMNw_-yUm_0
I'm used to be in the George Strait Fan Club
If it wasn't ramp job...
Then why did it crash right down below 1023 before the close?
Answer: "Let's use taxpayer money to BUY the last 30 minutes" and keep the Romans happy over the holiday"...
CV, you need to hit this thing...
http://www.poster.net/marley-bob/marley-bob-bob-marley-spliff-man-1002745.jpg
What will be will be, breddah...
Nothing new under Jah sun.
Hedged FI exposure and sold half my long bonds. If the curve steepens for a week or two, that is good for banks and high yield.
i will just say sayonara for now! cv, ciao!
@I-Man
Heads or Tails... I'll flip you for it...
oh, ben, you can't be serious with that tune.. : (
HaPpY InDePeNdEnCe DaY eVeRyOnE!
992 is still my target...
Guess I'll have to wait for Tuesday...
Chill, everyone, and see you at BRIANS..
karen,
haha!
hey I hope everyone has a great 4th. see you all next week to see what this bad boy ends up doing.
At least TYLER DURDEN seems to agree with me...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rampjob-fail
CV @ 4:00
No need to be so subtle.
100 Great Things About America
@anon
#3 should have read...
3. Stock Market
America's pastime…steroids or not
Happy 4th everyone! Manny's off to the horse races this evening to get rich.
My head wants to explode each time I hear Romer speaking....
No HFT bots there.....
I guess that wasn't a hammer (or takuri) on the SPX yesterday....
@Manny
Todays STOCK MARKET was a "maiden claimer"
@CV: LOL. My first visit this eve to Canterbury Park here. I've heard it's fun. I used to go all the time back in my Mass days (Suffolk Downs) but haven't gone here for some reason. Something different for us anyway. Nice day too!
It is hard to read anything into today I think. Volume and liquidity was so thin
Nic
Bots programmed to "keep it close" while everyone else was told to go home and enjoy the weekend.
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