AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection



The creditcane has made landfall. Destruction everywhere.



SPX
Bearish short day. Possible inverted hammer (I hope not). 1041.83 (fibo .09 from high) tested twice (failed). Well below the SMA(21) and below the SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the trendline using 2010 lows and below the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1116.04). Trending down on daily 3LB. CONFIRMED the monthly 3LB reversal. QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Still confirming bullish piercing. Midpoint above EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has held (91.80 is next). Still above the 76.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 88.23).



VIX
Takuri day (damn). Midpoint above EMA(10). "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps." Still above the SMA(55) and above the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79). CONFIRMED the monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Spinning top day (again). Still above the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 1258.30).



EURUSD
Bullish short day. Midpoint below the EMA(10). Did not even test the fibo .1855 at 1.2336. The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) is back in play. Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2393).



JNK
Bearish long day (explains yesterdays volatility). Continuing the confirmation of evening star. Did not test the 38.2% retrace but did test the 23.6% retace (passed). Back below the SMA(233) and SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bearish long day. The castle has been breached. Possible start of morning star...nope. Midpoint below the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 142.56).



BP
Spinning top day. More MSM hype and it didn't go anywhere. Still above below the 0.0% retrace (using recent low). Still below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.68).



WTI
Spinning top day. Possible start of morning star. Back below the SMA(21), SMA(55), and SMA(233). Midpoint below the EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 78.86).

102 comments:

Petulant President said...

40% of BP is owned by Americans? And 40% by UK citizens?

...I didn't know that...

Conspiracy Theorist said...

"Petulant President said...
40% of BP is owned by Americans? And 40% by UK citizens?"

and GS shorted the other 40% just before the rig blew up!

Left-wing *sshole said...

Petulant President,

Only "fat cats" own stocks. Screw 'em.

Math genius said...

Conspiracy Theorist,

You might want to check your math.

Conspiracy Theorist said...

"Math genius said...
Conspiracy Theorist,"

Math is correct, click my handle

CV said...

@BinT

From other thread...

CV always preferred the "Chief Strongbow Sleeper Hold"...

CV said...

@AMEN

VIX confirmed monthly 3lb...

"Crazy Ivans" baby... In an ocean of illiquidity... Coming to a planet near you! :-)

McFearless said...

my phone call today, and even more the mtg I just had, were worth of pile drivers.

BinT said...

I am ready to give up on some of my partners. Damned if they didn't see the light, and now have lost nearly all they made in 2010. And with excuses like "I wasn't keeping up with it every day..." I am just po'ed..

CV said...

@BinT

They probably just need to "borrow" more...

That ought to fix it up in a jiffy!

AmenRa said...

I see the House of Representatives (best politicians money can buy) have passed the FinReg bill and are sending it to the Senate. I guess they got the message...

McFearless said...

even smart guys like Rosie say some seriously dumb shit, like this:
"To reiterate, there are still needles in the haystack for equity investors in a deflationary environment."

how dumb, how many money mangers on a global scale, are going to be able to pick the needles out of the haystack? Perhaps it'd be better to admit your likely not going to and step aside, why be so prideful?

another reason why I respect EWI more than all the others, from their message board yesterday:

High-tech, innovation-dependent companies. Will their stocks behave differently in any way from stocks in general or not?

Responder: Multi-Author Date: 6/29/2010
The type of deflation forecasted in Bob Prechter's Conquer the Crash, the result of a societal-wide excessive build up of debt, should result in a very broad price decline for everything. There may possibly be one or two sectors that buck the trend, but A) that is doubtful, and B) we're not sure we would be able to identify that one "needle in the haystack."

I do understand the incentive to try and be a hero I suppose.

anyway, both EWI and Rosie mention tonight that Investors Intelligence bulls increased....the buy the dip mentality is alive and well.

McFearless said...

"I wasn't keeping up with it every day..."

at least they didn't say the Fed forced them to take risk.

McFearless said...

this def. caught my eye:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/06/teenagers-scared-over-plight-of-their.html

Wes said...

guys,

i just talked to my sister in FL,

..she borrowed more than she can pay in home equity refinance, cr cards, etc...

...and, she has not even lost her job, as yet...chose to pay the bank and not the house taxes...for 4 years!. now the tax authorities want the taxes paid -

ahab, help!

re. walk or not in FL

CV said...

@Amen (7:56)

No s***...

Doesn't stop there my friend...

JPM & the squid want this passed pronto (or no PPT - "capiche")...

Today was all about pretty much "giving it" to CONgress (only where BAWNEY FRANK types like it)...

And ESPECIALLY to wrinkly old Harry... And saying "STOP DRAGGING YOUR HEELZ you worthless POS"... Start taking the whip to your lap dogs...

And oh by the way... Get that $8 billion charge to St. Warren off the books before the door hits you in your ironing board ass on the way out the door...

Happy 4th!

CV said...

Obama said...

I think FINREG is swell :-)

CV said...

@wes

paid the bank NOT the taxes?

Ouch!

If she declares for BK they're going to attach her income and make her a slave...

ahab ought to know RECOURSE loans (for FLA) better than CV...

All I can say is... It would be time to get low...

CV said...

@McF (8:00)

A rising tide rises all boats...

A lowering tide lowers all boats...

A dry lakebed...?... Well, I hope it was a HOUSEBOAT (or a raft made out of beer cans)... Might be able to salvage something out of the operation... :-)

Anonymous said...

@ Bruce(7:49)

Redirect your partners to CV's blog, or better yet become their money manager for a fee! LOL.

What a waste of waste of money the G8-G20 was. Did anyone remember what was that about?

Billion $ party!

CV said...

@Anon

They got an artificial lake out of it!

The only thing they missed was the "grand finale"... (where all the protagonists were ordered to GO JUMP IN IT)...

Anonymous said...

b22 @ 8:00-

wow- maybe he means an inverse ETF- lol


Wes-

dude- I find it almost unbelievable that the county didn't foreclose for back taxes- they are always first in line- even ahead of the mortgage company-

foreclose- get whatever in an auction- take the back taxes owed upon sale- mortgage company gets what is left-

highly irregular- in any event- Florida is a recourse state- so the lender can get a deficiency judgment-

if there is a first and second- a lock the second trust company would pursue a deficiency judgment-

maybe she can negotiate a short sale w/ the bank?

Anonymous said...

A lowering tide lowers all boats...

exactly-

here's a question- was there any company's stock that did not fall from 2007 to March 2009?

Anonymous said...

Jim Chanos must be smiling somewhere.

CV said...

@ahab

I knew you would know whether FlA was a recourse state or not...

It seems to me that's the KEY issue on where to take the first step...

---

In a roundabout way... That's how I stumbled onto THE FARM... (entering in with cash at the right moment)...

Got it pretty cheap (all things considered)...

Anonymous said...

@Amen Ra --what is the significance of the Takuri on the VIX? When I googled it, it seemed like it was described as a bearish reversal candle. I don't see it as a bullish reversal. Is there any particular importance to the overly long shadow? Not understanding your concern here...Thanks!

Anonymous said...

BinT-

did your partners have any feeling that things "just weren't right" w/ the economy- any inkling that maybe they should get out w/ their winnings-

Or were they just trying to get back to even any which way they could?

I think b22 had the trade- long to S&P 1000 and then out-

he had his exit point and followed through-

and CV- dude has always conceded the possibility of the market grinding higher- w/ projections n the S&P that just seemed unbelievable-

the whole while- I was certain of doom-

I have really learned a lot from everyone here- I was just thinking that today-

and I even have a degree in finance- but that is not the same as "understanding" the markets-

I think a psychology degree may be the better degree for that

McFearless said...

ahab,

off the top of my head, one stock I know that didn't was MCD, maybe WMT

CV said...

@anon (re: VIX)

I can't answer for AMEN...

But IMO, the "daily" takuri is less significant than the MONTHLY 3LB CONFIRMATION (of the reversal)...

It basically says... We're going back to 2008 type volatility...

CV said...

Soup Nazi says...

@DL... "No 18VIX soup for you"!

CV said...

@anon

Back to you...

& this VOLATILITY ought to make the 2008 volatility look like a "stroll thru the park"

Anonymous said...

b22-

I guess those two make sense- I'll take your word on it

CV said...

@ahab

Don't give CV too much credit...

I was actually calling a TOP at 956 last June...

However - I will admit that I bailed IMMEDIATELY on that notion (I-Man will "painfully" remember this - at 869)... CV said... "wuh-oh"... (and exited my shorts)...

I NEVER called a top after that...

But my 2010 "prediction"... back in December (on Andy T's blog), ended up being 1235...

McFearless said...

some sentiment data
http://icf.som.yale.edu/confidence.index/CrashIndex.shtml

notice the confidence build in institutions continues into May and shows levels not seen since summer 08 and at the peak in 07, individual at it highest level since early 2007.

Anonymous said...

CV-

the 1235 is what I remember- but regardless- you "repositioned" yourself-

I on the other hand was just getting pissed off that I had my money in cash or losing trades- certain of "what should happen"-

QID cost me a boatload-

this after making great coin in 2008

Anonymous said...

. . .so- the old story- I wanted to be right- and therefore- not make money- lol

CV said...

@ahab

My LOW call, for 2010, remains 840...

But I think we'll eventually take out the March '09 lows at some point...

Think about this people... If 740 gets taken out, we could be talking a MACRO "double H&S" which extends all the way back to 1996...

It would probably mean that we eventually revisit the 1987 crash levels (or somewhere thereabouts)...

SPX 200 anyone?

CV said...

@McF (9:12)

Thing is... ICI is showing mutual fund outflows for the past 8 straight weeks...

Now you have to ask yourself...

- Is it confidence in stocks?
- or is it that people are "tapping into cash" to pay bills?
- or both

Anyway - it's something to consider...

CV said...

@McF

In any case... It's $30 billion dollars of liquidity that wasn't there before...

CASH ON THE SIDELINES? Remains on the sidelines (and ain't coming into the game)...

AmenRa said...

Anon

Takuri in a downtrend is very bullish and in an uptrend is basically a hanging man with an extended lower shadow (or tail). The hanging man candle is usually a solid bearish reversal signal and the tail increases the bearishness. BUT I prefer a hanging man with a lower close (black/red/closed body) as a reversal signal.

AmenRa said...

Monthly 3LB Update for June 2010 (text only)

Anonymous said...

and here is a thought-

very low mortgage rates- or very low long term rates in general-

are not indicative of a strong economy- quite the opposite-

nominal rates were very low during the GD- but real rates-

another story-

I see it as the credit market's recognition of deflation

CV said...

@Amen

But wouldn't you say that the MONTHLY 3lb "confirmation" trumps that (at least in the medium term)?

IOW - Somewhere around here we're due for a tiny little rally (maybe after Brian's BBQ, maybe some kind of counterintuitive denial to the coming DARK CROSS)...

But the VIX is going to start replaying 2008 performance pretty soon...

Would that be accurate in YOUR opinion?

AmenRa said...

AND XLF had a monthly 3LB reversal in May and was confirmed in June. Just sayin'

CV said...

@Amen

Also... Either HERE (or on your blog)...

Could you start putting up a $TRAN chart (especially a 3lb version of it)...

That might be interesting as of this point...

McFearless said...

C,

the question is pretty specific for the data in that survey

go ahead and take it, you can do it right on that site. Also, check out the little blurb below the chart.

about the mf data, that's a good point, but does that show what is happening in ETF's, individual stocks, or better yet, I'm almost positive I read recently that call buying among retail investors was at a very high level. People are extremely sensitive to cost right now, this certainly applies to investment fees. If that is influencing the MF data at all it would be perfectly rational given the ETF options out there and the fees versus what you pay in your typical mutual fund.

AmenRa said...

CV

Monthly 3LB trumps all. The daily and weekly 3LB are for short to intermediate term trends.
Ex: Monthly= Major League, Weekly= High School, Daily= Pee Wee League.


Australia Building Approvals fall 6.6% or WTE.

CV said...

@Amen

PEE WEE HERMAN says...

"I know you are but what am I?"

CV said...

"Australia Building Approvals fall 6.6% or WTE."

-6.6% WTE? Get right out of town!

AmenRa said...

Dow Transports

Weekly
trend=down
rev= 6463.27; mid= 6134.81, low= 5806.35

Monthly
***monthly 3LB reversal down***
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
rev= 6498.28; mid= 6049.51; low= 5600.74

Anonymous said...

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/06/30/274771/whats-up-with-commodity-currencies/

good link stating the obvious for this blog.

Wes said...

Wes said...
my high was - 1222

my low was - 666

---, and now, for the rest of the story...

will Bernochio Ben affect the outcome this year?

...I think not.......weeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

January 11, 2010 6:15 PM
Monday, January 11, 2010

S&P 500 Predictions --- One Week In
Below are commenter's predictions for the 2010 high and low tick for the S&P 500.
The high for the year so far is 1145 (rounded). Those whose "highs" are lower than this are red...

Reader High Tick Low Tick
72bat 1188 770
AmenRa 1190 690
Andy T 1050 760
bergsten 1250 625
Colin 1250 750
cv 1235 840
Dave Theory 1188 503
dss 1200 875
Emmanuel117 1220 920
HopeImWrong 1240 840
I-Man 1078 777
KC 1100 480
leftback 1188 550
lovethegoldtrend 1340 990
Mannwich 1165 895
Matthew 1170 950
McFearless 1158 764
mcHappy 1080 550
Onlooker 1000 560
Patrick 1200 500
qqqqtrader 1298 946
Squid Eater 1202 790
TexasRadio 1080 600
Todd 1200 900
Wershovenist Pig 1100 750
Average 1175 743

AmenRa said...

Perfect song for the market: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVDXpssgtdU

Anonymous said...

"China PMI lower" marketwatch.com

Where is the growth? Where is the beef?

@Ahab(9:0), so you don't have a Ph.D? Not qualified to trade.

McFearless said...

cool song Ra

CV said...

New Rules for Survival Capital...

If you're not a PHD, you're not qualified to blog...

You're not even qualified to post opinions about Justin Beiber songs...

Please return to your homes in an orderly fashion...

LMAO :-)

CV said...

Youch...

SPX FUTURES not looking good at the moment...

Anonymous said...

anon @ 9:54-

au contraire-

the market is more than willing to take anyone's money-

no qualifications required-

in fact- probably preferred

Anonymous said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGL8FEMc378

From the PHD in BS himself

AmenRa said...

CV

China can't lead if their manufacturing is slowing down.

Plus I swear I just saw a 2.8% on the 10yr cross the screen.

CV said...

@Amen

You would not be imagining that "2.8" my friend...

As for CHINA (and that "hope")?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZW8TlrYhBxk&feature=PlayList&p=1546BEB237DACC0F&playnext_from=PL&playnext=1&index=19

AmenRa said...

Since XLF confirmed let's look at who is in it:

AXP
BAC
BK
C
GS
JPM
MET
MS
USB
WFC

Quick quote on the top 10 holdings: XLF Top Ten

mcHAPPY said...

Sucks pretty hard not being on the ride down. I've totally f*cked up everything since 1042 on June 8. Only thing bright spot in that time came on Father's Day.

More than likely the moment I say screw it and jump in will be the moment of reversal - lol.

Right now 1026, 1016, 1004, 992, 950 are all possible stops. I have nada clue.

AmenRa said...

CV

Nice. I'll bet the FOMC plays this at the beginning of their meetings.

arbitrage789 said...

Soup Nazi @ 9:05

Yeah, 18 (Vix) does seem a ways off from here.


I told you to go long VIX futures.

CV said...

@AMEN

Since $TRAN reversed... Let's look at some major components there too...

Airlines:
AMR
CAL
DAL
JBLU
LUV

Package Delivery:
FDX
UPS

Rails: (Sorry St. Warren)
CSX
KSU
NSC
UNP

Trucking/Ground Transport:
JBHT
R

McFearless said...

futures stay down CNBC will be real show tomorrow morning as they countdown to the claims number like a bunch of raving lunatics.

CV said...

Soup Nazi says...

@DL

VIX 18 is a "core holding" at this juncture :-)

AmenRa said...

Think about it. The US govt has no BUDGET, the UK delayed their 1Q GDP until July, China PMI is WTE, US weekly claims avg 450k+, US banks L3 assets are down 50% or worse, EU at the edge of a steep cliff. That's enough. I need a drink.

CV said...

@McF

They always have LIESman they can troll out to calm the GIB's while the "C" cups distract you in other ways...

The situation is WELL IN HAND...

Go back to your weekend BBQ plans... Nothing to see over here...

AmenRa said...

CV

DJ Trans Avg Components

Only 6 out of 20 in the green today.

CV said...

Think about it. The US govt has no BUDGET, the UK delayed their 1Q GDP until July, China PMI is WTE, US weekly claims avg 450k+, US banks L3 assets are down 50% or worse, EU at the edge of a steep cliff. That's enough. I need a drink.

Well all I can say is that Harry Reid better get FINREG passed "prontissimo"...

JAMIE & LLOYD SAY - "The beatings will continue until morale improves"...

http://www.piratesplunder.com/images/products/flags/Beatings_450.jpg

AmenRa said...

Santelli vs Liesman: Let's get ready to rumble!!!
Especially since Santelli tries to explain the numbers to Liesman (who covers his ears yelling nah-nah-nah-nah).

CV said...

@Amen

Beckster & EB better be wearing the ultra tight fabrics tomorrow... And they'll need to turn the studio temperature down about 20 degrees...

CNBC executive producer says...

"Why oh why did we let Liz Claman go?"... & "Can MCC "sub" tomorrow morning?"

arbitrage789 said...

John Hussman on CNBC today:


http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1534417211&play=1


http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1534424611&play=1

karen said...

guys! i'm late to the party as always.. how will i catch up..

CV, stop teasing me.

Ahab, GOLD (the ticker) has been on a non-stop tear. dopey PE..

CV said...

@karen

All I can say is... I'll try as much as I can to be there in bed with you when you wake up in the morning... :-)

AmenRa said...

I don't know why it took me this long to realize that derisking=CYA and rerisking= Let It Ride.

karen said...

CV, i am insatiable in the early morning. Doubt you could deal with me!

Nic said...

Hello Peeps
The Nikkei closed the morning session at 9200, which is close to the 50% retracement level of the rally from the March 2009 low to the highs earlier this year.

CV said...

@karen

What is it about you ladies and the early morning hours?

I'm telling you... The ULTIMATE ROMEO - Is a guy who is wide awake and full of testosterone between the hours of 4AM -7AM...

When I was training for the World Championships, I used to be like that... STUPIDLY, I applied the phenomenon in the wrong direction (which only placed me "6th", at WORLDS, in my best effort)...

If I'da only known!

bob said...

Colbert Bunker Bottom?

Probably completely irrelevant, but anyway, Colbert did a segment on a bunker monday-

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/313677/june-28-2010/doomsday-bunkers

The last time he did that, march 4, 2009

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/220649/march-04-2009/doom-bunker---glenn-beck-s--war-room-

That whole hour was probably the best in TV history, stewart lampooned cramer, and before the doom bunker, he went after Xenu.

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/220648/march-04-2009/space-module--colbert---scientology-s-new-galactic-overlord

BinT said...

Thanks for posting the Hussman link. I have quite a bit of respect for this guy, as you guys know, in that after getting his Ph.D. he now runs a mutual fund, and publishes his thoughts every Monday for all the world to see. This of course, allows anyone interested in his type of investing to see if they agree with his thinking, sort of a blog before there were blogs. Finding out information along these lines with other fund companies is much more difficult.

Besides, I get so tired of seeing sell-side individuals telling me what they "think"...give me something to evaluate, please, and I am much less grumpy...(unlike some on this blog!)....

BinT said...

http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/30/smallbusiness/kenneth_feinberg/index.htm

BP claims czar: Not everyone will get paid

...Again, I think the Gulf will be devestated. For years. What an awful time to have Billy Carter as president...remember how Billy was someone Jimmy wanted to keep hidden? I think this no budget, judges that never judged, petulant president is exactly the wrong medicine for our current illness.

...I very much hope I am wrong.

McFearless said...

ufb

UFB!

Is anyone watching CNBC right now?

This is completely insane

McFearless said...

and as they close it down Steve Liesman is so pumped

"we understood it all"

what a jackass

McFearless said...

all these congressmen and senators think they are going to prevent another crash with their latest and greatest.

silly people

maybe next they can start working on stopping all hurricanes, job losses, and the sun rising in the east and setting in the west.

AmenRa said...

Ben

So are the politicians running around with their chest pumped out? What they fail to realize is that the public has woken up and know it's a sham.

Anonymous said...

Ra-

a sham- WOW

BinT said...

Ben,

I watched the CNBC interview with Greenspan. I am not sure the people on CNBC understand their job. I am pretty sure it is not to let a former head of the Fed prattle on about how he is misunderstood, and that his policies had no bearing on our economic disaster today. Greenspan is like a lot of ivory tower individuals of the Krugman stripe, they see the world one way and can't change. Yes, it was UFB.

McFearless said...

sham wow.....haha

472k on claims, last weeks adjusted higher, along with continuing claims

quick, check the market reaction....

AmenRa said...

BANZAI!!!

McFearless said...

Bruce,

yeah, I agree on the CNBC people, did you notice they all put on suit jackets for Greenie. Pathetic.

and here comes some of the silly news rationale from these idiots


in April when the market was rising every single day, almost all of these CNBC pundits would say "bad news" was the "reason" stocks would go up, it indicated QE, or whatever, and we needed a catalyst for things to go lower. The joke is now on everyone else because these same pundits now say that the jobs data that we just got, for example, is reason to SELL the stock market.

GIB folks....it's not the news.....we create the news.

McFearless said...

Ra,

8:18, oh yes they are, well, the one's voting for the bill anyway, the others on here that aren't voting for it are just as moronic though....

Anonymous said...

ok I give up-

what is GIB?

McFearless said...

global idiot bubble

McFearless said...

it is huge

Anonymous said...

of course!!!!

and it is huge- lol

McFearless said...

hmmm, treasury sold 1.1 billion shares of C at an average price of 4.03?

What?

so the treasury, masters of the universe, sold it all in April? at the top?

something smells funny there right?

good luck unloading the rest of the shares above $4 though, then again, maybe all those hedge funds want them.

mcHAPPY said...

Hindsight sucks the wang-er.

CV said...

NEW THREAD

McFearless said...

McHappy,

maybe trade the waves on a little bigger time frame until you have more practice.

I burned myself up a whole bunch when I first learned about e-wave, I told onlooker the same thing many months back, I still don't trade the real short frames much....over the larger terms though the patterns always resolve, just gotta find your sweet spot with it.

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