AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

The creditcane has made landfall. Weakened by ground defenses. May hold off full wrath until holiday.

Bearish short day (hair>10%H-L so not a hammer). Not takuri because hair>10%H-L. 1041.83 (fibo .09 from high) not tested. Well below the SMA(21) and below the SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the trendline using 2010 lows and below the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1073.69). Trending down on daily 3LB. QE2infinity.

Bearish long day. Held weekly 3LB reversal price. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated. Back below the 76.4% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 85.98).

Bearish short day which confirmed hammer. I'd say shooting star day but it didn't gap higher at open. Midpoint above EMA(10). "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps." Still above the SMA(55) and above the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79).

Bearish long day. Back below the SMA(21) and SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 1248.70).

Bullish long day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Tested the fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (passed). The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) is on hold again. Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 1.2214).

Hammer day (risk is ready to be off? really?). Another evening star went supernova. Tested the 23.6% retrace (failed) and tested the 14.6% retace (passed). Still below the SMA(233) and SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).

High wave day. wanted to start the month with a bang but failed. Midpoint below the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 133.77).

Doji day. No long day preceding doji therefore no reversal signals. Midpoint below EMA(10). Did not test 0.0% retrace (new 0.0% coming soon). New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 30.32). Can you say 2.0%? YES. Is the Fed getting worried yet? HELL YES.

Seems like all days are doji so no candle picks. Trading below the SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 6141.07).

Bearish short day. Closed above the SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Gapped at open but closed lower. New high on daily 3LB (reversal still 177.90).


Anonymous said...

I would like to make a request of our DJ...would you please continue the lumber charts?



McFearless said...


as always, thanks a lot for your efforts.

Anonymous said...

Double Secret QE2 bitchez!

BinT said...

Released on 7/1/2010 For Jun, 2010
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
8.9 8.9 M 8.2 M to 9.0 M 8.4 M

Vehicle sales were weak in June in an early indication that retail sales may prove disappointing for a second month in a row. Unit sales of domestic-made cars and light trucks came in at an 8.4 million annual rate vs. May's 8.9. Adding in imports and the comparison shows an 11.1 million rate vs. 11.6 in May for a 4.5 percent decline.

Nic said...

Here is a good lumber chart:

The bounce today I would suggest is more to do with the weak dollar and CAD rather than any positive statement about housing and the extension of the tax credits.

$100 Bills said...

McFearless – From the previous thread and $100 bills.

Over the past couple years, I have been wondering the same and by the SWAG method(Scientific Wild Ass Guess) I have come to the following conclusions of why there seems to be a shortage of $100 bills.

1) Automation - ATM’s & Cash Dispense
2) Safety
3) Control

Automation - As a society we have become use to going to the ATM’s to get our money, most ATM’s dole out $20 bills, which decrease the need for larger bills. Also many financial institutions have gone to Cash Dispense Machines (We don’t want anyone to actually have to count) These machines will dispense currency in 20,10, 5 & 1’s but they have no slots for 50 or 100’s

Safety - If the larger bills are kept in the vault it keeps bad guys and gals from being able to steal as much money when they stick a gun in a tellers face. Also these Cash Dispense Machines keep large amounts (30-40 Grand) of cash in them, but most bank robbers want quick easy money and 500 to 700 and a clean get away is enuff for many of them.

Control – Kind of like the difference in carrying around silver instead of gold. You can fit about 10x the value of silver in the same amount of gold, so if you were going to be bartering you would not want to carry 10 pounds of silver with you if you only needed 10 oz of gold. Well it is easier to carry around a credit card that has 10x the purchasing power of the cash we carry around. You are less likely to buy a $12 item if you have to break a $100, but think nothing of putting it on the card, plus you are more likely to purchase a $200 you can’t afford if you can put it on the card. (I do not mean you specifically though)

Or it could be they got a good deal on the paper they print our currency on……

Mangy Mutt

Anonymous said...

Gold was real FUGLY today.

BinT said...

Thank you for the lumber addition Amen and thanks Nic. I'll be keeping a look out for the effect of the extension of the tax rebate.

..Made money on investments today. A good day.

Ben22 said...

Mangy Mutt,

thanks for stopping by dude. hope all is good. You still giving elliott wave a shot or did you move on?

AmenRa said...

I still think that todays SPX was weak because it couldn't close within the previous days body. That would have indicated the bulls gave it the old college try.

Anonymous said...

mangy mutt/b22-

what of a Survivor Capital FF league- any word from Chet?

it could be like $100 a head- what did we have last year 10 teams?

McFearless said...


hasn't said anything to me but I was thinking he was going to keep it going. I'm in if he does, and I do think it should be for money this year, we could set up a simple pay pal or something, or $100 bill payments.

Anonymous said...


I am wondering- what are the max teams? I think it's 10- am I wrong?

It would be more fun with more teams- get the I-Man in there, manny, Ra, LB , BinT, mchappy (if he follows the NFL)-

even Karen if she is so inclined-

it would make it tough w/ injuries though

Elliot Wave said...

Ben, Yes read Elliott wave and believe there is a lot of useful information with it - Thanks for asking.

I am still pretty new and have tons to learn, but from where I am sitting, I believe TPTB have played thier one trick pony too often and too much which has caused the industialized nations have WAY too much debt. And until either that pony is shot and/or (Hopefully both) the debt is payed back, we are in for a wild ride.

But of course TPTB are going to keep beating the pony even after it is dead - And this leads me to believe that even though Elliot Wave is a powerful tool, it is not currently the best tool to use.

So to answer your question, I have not moved on from Elliot Wave, just waiting for the seasons to change.

Currently I am following AmenRa's 3lb and have learned the trend is my friend and have actually been doing ok with my trades, except I am a little skitsh about holding my winners (Need to learn more patients I guess)

If I can keep ahead of the game for about 20% gain, it will pull me back to even. Of course this is not (yet) large sums of money, but if I can pull even in my first year that is not too bad.

I hope all is well for you and you guys have a great 4th of July.


Gives Ahab a 100 Bill said...

Ahab - Hmmmm the thought of paying you a hundered dollars to kick my ass is tempting :)

I would not mind joining and over all last years was a good experience, except then the ass kicking was free.

But remember NO MATTER WHAT! I get Laverious Coles.


Anonymous said...

"A GOP Conspiracy to Weaken the Economy?"- CNBC

"the Republicans are deliberately refusing to help unemployed workers or aid the states because they undoubtedly know this will hurt the economy further – and an ailing economy will help their prospects in November."

and there you have it- those damn Republicans-

if it wasn't for their meddling- we would already be on the path to prosperity-

ok- well maybe not- lol

Wes said...

Clavadista d'Oro™

Karen and DL - from JS (and LB, btw)

"There are times when you must ignore the hedgie madness in the marketplace "

Anonymous said...


we'll put CV in charge- everyone paypal a payment to CV's account-

not sure how that works exactly- but I have used paypal for a long time w/ ebay- pretty easy- how to get it to a private account not sure- but I am certain that Yahoo has a way-

we just have to hope that CV doesn't shut his blog down, disappear, and go on a journey for exotic seeds and whatnot for the farm(-:!!!

McFearless said...

McFearless said...


you can have up to 20 teams in one league but the amount of teams is really a function of how many players we want to allow on each roster. I'll leave that up to CV, dude knows his stuff about fantasy, and about football.

Anonymous said...

. . .and look at that sell signal spike-

but- I refuse to sell- because all the evidence is not in-

ask me in a few months

McFearless said...


good luck on those trades,... and breaking even your first year, nothing at all wrong with that.

Anonymous said...


well we'll see- I am certain if it is a money league-

Chet is in- lol

I am thinking Cutler and Martz are an interesting combination-

could be be a disaster- but - maybe some incredible offense-

I am thinking the latter

karen said...

thank you, AR!

Wes, I'm happy.. i want gold to drop big. i'm a believer and a buyer : )

McFearless said...

Cutler throws a lot of picks, maybe a lot more with Martz. that could be really interesting though if it works,warner and bulger used to have some giant games

Anonymous said...

Cutler throws a lot of picks

dude- "past performance does not guarantee future results"

now- as a broker- you must have said that a few times(-:!!!

Wes said...


i sold 61.8% of my miners yesterday...wuuuw...

they will go down with the market...

the actual PM'e...less clear

Anonymous said...

wow Wes-

61.8%- such an odd number- why not 60% or 62%-

must be something I don't quite understand(-:!!!


out for the night- long day tomorrow

karen said...

ahab, with a female?! do tell, or report in! laughing

karen said...

where is andy tonight? he needs to check in..

Wes said...


you kisser,

and morning tiger,

he, he, he

McFearless said...



lol.... ok, but does that mean we'll wait and see where Jamarcus Russell ends up and you'll take him as your QB?

Andy T said...

Hey Karen.

I'm always around. Sometimes I just post anonymously.

Andy T said...

That gold was a classic grinding/triangle type rising wedge into nominal new highs.

Jesse must be crying in his bisque tonight.


Andy T said...

Random aside: There's an Italian quasi-chain (a couple of restaurants) in Houston called Carrabas. That place is excellent for a chain.

It's one of the view Italian places I know of that do a VEAL piccata.

I love the baby cows...they're really cute and all, but boy do I love Veal picatta and good veal chop. Excellent lentil sausage soup as well...

I'm stuffed and happy. It was payday BABY!

Andy T said...

I'm totally down with some FF. $100/pop makes it interesting and fun. Limit the league to 10-12.

Andy T said...

S&P: My gut says this "neckline" break will be a mini "bear trap" as I suggested in the last update. Though, I'm surprised we went this low this quickly, admittedly.

DXY price action last few days was predicted. See more downside price action there in the next few weeks.

BinT said...

Top Stories
Schwarzenegger orders min wage for state workers- AP
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Thursday ordered about 200,000 state workers to be paid the federal minimum wage this month because the state Legislature has not passed a budget.

...Now THAT is some action!

arbitrage789 said...


K: morning tiger.

BinT said...

Dairy Queen workers make more than the California state comptroller!

What a time to observe the country. Whooooohooooo!

karen said...

Today was payday for me, all right. tomorrow is a coin toss.. still have an oil short in play.. (a dxd and qid that I wish i had quit, but whatever.) I was surprised at my tenseness and pensiveness at today's tape.. no euphoria..

karen said...

Andy, you are such a tricker! are you 18, too?!

karen said...

and stop making fun of gold bugs!!

Andy T said...

K. Don't know about that oil short. The Euro looked pretty saucy today and seems headed higher over the next few weeks.

Maybe oil goes down in that environment. But, I'm not so sure of that!

karen said...

this is what i am waiting for with $gold..

"Volatility is only going to get worse. I am sure you will see gold range $300 in a day and trade into Asia, as there is no close, near unchanged."

"Gold will certainly trade at $1650 and most likely much, much higher."

arbitrage789 said...

Ritholtz & Art Laffer on Kudlow (7/1/10):

Andy T said...

I've been feeling 18 for a long time now UNTIL I sprained my lower back earlier this week doing the Boot Camp stuff. I've felt more like 58 last few days. Sucks.

karen said...

Andy, ha ha! and today was euro short covering.. can it continue? of course.. it is at upper resistance, however. tomorrow will be interesting!

DL.. pls paraphrase if you will those cnbc segments as I'm sure I will be nauseated. xxx

Nic said...

GLD August and September ITM puts up 50% in two days ...

McFearless said...


Carrabas...trees on the roof? We've got those around here, I've only gone once, had a good ravioli

karen said...


arbitrage789 said...

Karen @ 10:58

You want a summary?

(Sounds too much like work).

Nic said...

Thanks Karen.
GL everyone for NFP!

AmenRa said...

Come on -200k! Turn those bulls into heifers.

McFearless said...

anyone doing anything special for the 4th?

arbitrage789 said...

I'll be surprised to see a negative reaction to the NFP number, whatever it is.

Anonymous said...

Why Congress Extended the Home Buyer Tax Credit

so contracts can be backdated and we can keep alive the notion of RE recovery?

keep the dream alive

CV said...


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