TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 7.1.10

Morning Audibles 7.1.10

Sorry... I'm a little late this morning...

As expected, the Eurozone LTRO operation is turning into a nightmare... All CV can say is the FLASH CRASH I was predicting last week is turning into more of a controlled demolition...

Hey, aren't STATE budgets in the US due today also? I know, they're probably in the dumpster with the Federal Budget... Do they actually do anything in CONgress? Oh well, I guess the House passed FINREG overnight... Way to go Pelosi (rolls eyes)...

In any case, Mr. Market is basically saying... Keynesian experiment over... (So expect "double secret" QE2 to come along soon)... Boys - Get your PHD's out and ready to wave at us!

How do you think I'm gonna get along without you when you're gone?

You took me for everything that I had and kicked me out on my own

Are you happy? Are you satisfied?

How long can you stand the heat?

Out of the doorway the bullets rip... to the sound of the beat (Look out)

306 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 306 of 306 Newer› Newest»

karen said...: Doug Kass: i beleive today will mark a classic bottom $$

i didn't correct his spelling because this is a typical mistake in a typical recovery which is marked by a classic bottom..; July 1, 2010 at 2:20 PM
karen said...: Nic, my sons both fly out of lax on sunday morning.. one for ny, the other for kauai. that's when my fun will begin : ); July 1, 2010 at 2:22 PM
18 said...: I ?

long now?

I'm still holding SDS from last week, prolly should have sold this morning but my gut says hold into next week.

CV, you need a weekly poll on this site :); July 1, 2010 at 2:24 PM
Nic said...: Doug Kass: Emotional Abuse
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10797335/1/kass-emotional-abuse.html; July 1, 2010 at 2:26 PM
Nic said...: Karen lol; July 1, 2010 at 2:26 PM
I-Man said...: I-Man can flip with the best of em...; July 1, 2010 at 2:26 PM
I-Man said...: Lookin for 1030.25; July 1, 2010 at 2:27 PM
I-Man said...: I'm willing to risk 2 ticks to bag 8 sticks anytime...

Just wish the magic bids would show up once in awhile when I'm on the long side...

They only seem to appear when I'm short.

Bitches...; July 1, 2010 at 2:29 PM
I-Man said...: That was fun, thanks Mr Market...

Lets try this again in a few minutes after I've showered.; July 1, 2010 at 2:29 PM
CV said...: I used to admire Kass...

But lately he just sounds like a tool...; July 1, 2010 at 2:30 PM
CV said...: Sitting on the 89 "minute" MA with 89 minutes until 4:00...; July 1, 2010 at 2:32 PM
I-Man said...: Ditto that CV...

He's become the short shill at cnbs now... not a real short seller anymore.; July 1, 2010 at 2:32 PM
18 said...: "CV said...
@18
per my (1:59)... It just tagged 1,030.29"

yeh, commented on that, didn't include the name "18" tho

I respect your thoughts and have learned a lot from everyone here. THX!; July 1, 2010 at 2:32 PM
karen said...: Nic, thanks for the link.. after reading that i realized why my jaw was agape.. i was mistaking kass for cashin !! cognitive dissonance ran amuck as i stared at his twitter foto again..

i wonder what art cashin is saying these days..; July 1, 2010 at 2:36 PM
Nic said...: @18
I have been to a couple of webinars with a chicago floor trader who uses your 18 number. In fact his target for a daily move is 17 handles.
Interesting stuff; July 1, 2010 at 2:36 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

It seems to me that people like Ritholtz & Kass who are "cloak & dagger" liberals (that hide in sheep costumes), are all breaking down because they truly wanted to believe the Keynesian approach of their masters would work in the end and they could all live happily ever after discussing their hallowedness at their Hamptons cocktail parties...; July 1, 2010 at 2:37 PM
karen said...: distribution baby!

U.S. Treasury Sells 1.1 Billion Shares of Citigroup (NYSE:C) Common Stock
In a press release, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced the sale of approximately 1.1 billion shares of Citigroup (C) common stock pursuant to the completion of its second trading plan with Morgan Stanley (MS) as sales agent.

To date, Treasury has sold a total of approximately 2.6 billion shares of Citigroup common stock at an average price per share of $4.03, and has received total gross proceeds of approximately $10.5 billion from the sale.

http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2010/07/01/u-s-treasury-sells-1-1-billion-shares-of-citigroup-nysec-common-stock/; July 1, 2010 at 2:39 PM
Leftback said...: TIPS are being sold. Gold too....

TIP, TBT and GDX are what the Hyperinflation Hedgies are holding.
Liquidation beginning to fund investor withdrawals?; July 1, 2010 at 2:41 PM
CV said...: @karen

Yeah, well they must be using the proceeds to buy it all back today to keep this market from doing a base jump...; July 1, 2010 at 2:41 PM
18 said...: @Nic

I just started experimenting with different things some years ago and started to notice a pattern. I use those price levels for buy/sell points and it seemed to work. You still need to figure out the direction but once that's established, bag the profits at those points. Has made me a few bucks :); July 1, 2010 at 2:42 PM
I-Man said...: back to the short side...; July 1, 2010 at 2:42 PM
arbitrage789 said...: CV @ 2:37

I wonder how high the tax on carried interest and capital gains would have to go before those guys would make the switch to Laffer curve conservatives.; July 1, 2010 at 2:44 PM
18 said...: "I-Man said...
back to the short side..."

I get squeamish when I here peeps saying they're long last few weeks :); July 1, 2010 at 2:47 PM
I-Man said...: All good 18...

I just take what I can get... if I was just swing/position trading like I used to, it would be only shorts.; July 1, 2010 at 2:48 PM
karen said...: "to my friend and me," i meant, rolling my eyes.. i hate my grammatical errors.. : (

i guess Jeff left!; July 1, 2010 at 2:49 PM
Mannwich said...: TLT kisses 102.; July 1, 2010 at 2:51 PM
Mannwich said...: Wait - I see it 102.66 earlier while I was occupied? Wow.; July 1, 2010 at 2:52 PM
Mannwich said...: Not yet, karen, but does thinking about it count? My gym bag is almost ready.; July 1, 2010 at 2:52 PM
CV said...: @DL

There will NEVER be any switching...

They're all such geniuses, they'll never admit they were wrong about anything...

They'll just keep using their high falutin' intellects to go about solving the ever more complex problems they are causing in the first place...

2000 pages, trillions of dollars, and an army of people to screw in a friggin light bulb...; July 1, 2010 at 2:53 PM
Nic said...: I closed my gfold short way too early, I didn't think 1200 would go this easily.
1177 next stop; July 1, 2010 at 2:56 PM
karen said...: 18, can you do that trick on gold? what do you use as the starting point..
i just googled "rule of 18" and got this:

What Does Rule Of 18 Mean?
A rule whereby the sum of the inflation rate and the P/E ratio of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is an indicator of the direction of the stock market. If the total is above 18, stocks are supposed to decrease. If the total is under 18, then the stock market is expected to increase.

For example, if the P/E ratio for the Dow were 14 and the annual inflation rate were 3%, their sum would equal 17. This number would indicate that the stock market will increase.; July 1, 2010 at 2:57 PM
I-Man said...: K, do a search on "Chai"...; July 1, 2010 at 2:58 PM
karen said...: Manhattan housing on the rebound
Thursday, July 1st, 2010, 1:55 pm - CNN Money
Manhattan home prices held steady during the second quarter of 2010 but transactions were 81% higher than this time last year.

There were more than 2,700 sales during the three months ended June 30, according to one report, which is average in a normal real estate market but up significantly from the 1,500 sales during the second quarter of 2009.; July 1, 2010 at 2:59 PM
CV said...: @karen

sounds like "card counting" at a Las Vegas blackjack table...; July 1, 2010 at 2:59 PM
karen said...: I-Man, "The numeric value of Chai is 18 and monetary gifts are generally given in multiples of 18." Interesting that Jim Sinclair once said that 9 was an important number in trading gold.; July 1, 2010 at 3:02 PM
karen said...: this market is possessed.. : ); July 1, 2010 at 3:03 PM
I-Man said...: this market is doing its best to frustrate ALL.; July 1, 2010 at 3:06 PM
CV said...: a FIBO sequence (from 9) would look like:

9,9,18,27,45,72,117,189,306,495,801

Of course, if you divide any number in the sequence by the next, you get .618; July 1, 2010 at 3:07 PM
karen said...: http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/hidden-sp500-fibonacci-confluence-last-hope-for-bulls/; July 1, 2010 at 3:08 PM
CV said...: @karen

The bulls are fresh out of last hopes...

The LAST HOPE will be if there is actually any bid to buy the shares they need to dump...; July 1, 2010 at 3:13 PM
McFearless said...: just got back....quick look I think the following:

1. Silver....ooooh aaaaah
2. dollar correction continues, I'm going to start getting ready to identify entries now.
3. still value on the short side, lol.; July 1, 2010 at 3:15 PM
McFearless said...: we are oversold though,,, pretty deeply as well, it makes me wonder if we really are in a third wave with a big rush down to come, the sweetest sell-offs come during oversold conditions.; July 1, 2010 at 3:16 PM
18 said...: @ Karen
Gold prices are to spastic. LOL

18 is the starting point for all levels. I know, seems strange but pull up a 1 month 5/10/15 min chart, put horizontal lines on 1116, 1098, 1080, 1062, 1044, 1026, 1008. Price seems to hang around these 18 price multiples more often than not.; July 1, 2010 at 3:16 PM
McFearless said...: lol, maria bataromo:

"wow big comeback towards the end here"

WE ARE STILL RED YOU DUMB BITCH!; July 1, 2010 at 3:17 PM
McFearless said...: The Laugher Curve really is a joke.....; July 1, 2010 at 3:19 PM
I-Man said...: Sick her, CV!; July 1, 2010 at 3:20 PM
McFearless said...: I'm loving this 18....I hope to dig into that this weekend.; July 1, 2010 at 3:21 PM
CV said...: @Money Honey (of yesteryear)

"Bite Me"; July 1, 2010 at 3:23 PM
CV said...: Insana was talking how this is all just "black box trading"...

Yeah! the same black boxes that blew up your hedge fund you tool!; July 1, 2010 at 3:25 PM
McFearless said...: hahah fast money segment today is "how to hedge your bets"

as I recall, they laughed at RP at the top when he said to go to cash, now they feature how to hedge.

how typical.; July 1, 2010 at 3:25 PM
karen said...: currently we have a number to work with on $gold, 1265.. of course, i think it will go much higher after it goes lower.. we need those 50-100 dollar swings.; July 1, 2010 at 3:26 PM
McFearless said...: gold to the 900's, I would love to see that, but we aren't even close right now.; July 1, 2010 at 3:27 PM
18 said...: Is Isana still around? I blocked out CNBS channel long ago, but still have it on XM in the car :( and for some reason, I'll listen once in a while when I'm driving. It's next to the comedy channel if I remember correctly.; July 1, 2010 at 3:29 PM
AmenRa said...: Is there a rule or something that says if the start of a quarter is positive it will end higher? I know MF's have to put 401k inflows to work but why can't they keep them in cash?; July 1, 2010 at 3:30 PM
arbitrage789 said...: McFearless @ 3:19

Above a certain tax rate, the revenue (to the government) from capital gains taxes doesn't increase, and indeed decreases.

The "fat cats" do have ways of hiding income, defering it and moving it around.

The behavior of the average J6P, however, doesn't change that much with the tax rate.; July 1, 2010 at 3:31 PM
I-Man said...: Anyone else feel like they're on a hamster wheel?; July 1, 2010 at 3:33 PM
CV said...: I feel like I AM a hamster wheel...; July 1, 2010 at 3:35 PM
CV said...: Nice to see your tax dollars hard at work though right?; July 1, 2010 at 3:35 PM
CV said...: These must be those "shovel ready" projects they were talking about...

Digging the S&P out of a hole...; July 1, 2010 at 3:36 PM
BinT said...: My feet may be too big for that, I-Man...; July 1, 2010 at 3:38 PM
I-Man said...: I mean, I'm catching alot of base hits, but dont feel like we're going anywhere in the process...; July 1, 2010 at 3:40 PM
karen said...: the thursday economic horror show; July 1, 2010 at 3:41 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

The real action doesn't start until you get to 3rd base...

So I am told...; July 1, 2010 at 3:42 PM
18 said...: chance of ending green today?

I'd prefer to see a 999.99 close; July 1, 2010 at 3:44 PM
McFearless said...: DL,

are you going to try and tell me next that the latter part of Laffer's central argument about his curve isn't an opinion, and a political one at that?

"The basic idea behind the relationship between tax rates and tax revenues is that changes in tax rates have two effects on revenues: the arithmetic effect and the economic effect."

I'm speaking about the economic effect in particular.

The laffer curve is nothing more than another goldilocks idea of the supply siders, the bottom line is, there is psychology involved with regard to capital gains, the economy, all money, it's not a simple function of the tax rate and the person's p/l, but you can go right on believing you can fit it all into a nice neat "curve"; July 1, 2010 at 3:46 PM
CV said...: If we rally back to 1220, like, by tomorrow, there might be a chance to avoid the DARK CROSS...; July 1, 2010 at 3:47 PM
CV said...: Better hope for a good NFP number... lol; July 1, 2010 at 3:47 PM
18 said...: CV, was just thinking about that, no way it can be good.; July 1, 2010 at 3:49 PM
McFearless said...: and I knew some "fat cats" that did many 1031 exchanges right on through the top of the re bubble, just to smartly avoid those pesky capital gains taxes.; July 1, 2010 at 3:49 PM
18 said...: the NFP number just leaked...; July 1, 2010 at 3:50 PM
McFearless said...: knowing the NFP number prior to release doesn't really help you, though I'm sure I'll get some push back on this...; July 1, 2010 at 3:50 PM
karen said...: love those 20 pt indu ticks, not!; July 1, 2010 at 3:53 PM
Nic said...: There are currently more S&P 500 stocks below their 50-DMAs (96%) than at the March 2009 lows ...; July 1, 2010 at 3:53 PM
Leftback said...: Traders have been playing the "NFP BTE" card this afternoon.
Now if they are wrong and factory orders SUCK....

Want to hedge my Treasuries but it's just not smart here.
There will be time for that tomorrow.; July 1, 2010 at 3:53 PM
AmenRa said...: If you watch the NYSE TICKS you can see the bulls are going all out for the close.; July 1, 2010 at 3:53 PM
CV said...: "Yes sir, I was wondering about this $10,000 check to Mr. Clarence Beeks"...; July 1, 2010 at 3:55 PM
AmenRa said...: Is this an exact repeat of yesterday or what?; July 1, 2010 at 3:55 PM
Leftback said...: LB doesn't <3 FX correlation breakdown days.; July 1, 2010 at 3:56 PM
Leftback said...: When does the EURUSD squeeze end?; July 1, 2010 at 3:57 PM
CV said...: @Nic (3:53)

Well that makes sense because 50 days ago we were at 1220...; July 1, 2010 at 3:57 PM
arbitrage789 said...: McFearless @ 3:46

Let's just begin with the premise that the shape of the Laffer curve is wildly inaccurate. I'm making a point about how behavior changes with changing marginal tax rates (and that extends to politicians who get paid off to introduce tax loopholes).; July 1, 2010 at 3:58 PM
bob said...: LB,

They just ate the stops above 1.25, that area has been good to counter trend people.; July 1, 2010 at 3:59 PM
McFearless said...: Nic,

3:53, that's another P3 like stat right there, it feels like we haven't even come down that far, at least to me it doesn't.

DL,

Ok, fair enough. Really though, you and I didn't need a curve to tell us that if taxes go up people would try to avoid paying them, it's perfectly rational.; July 1, 2010 at 4:00 PM
I-Man said...: Something about the action from 10:30est to the close just doesnt smell right...

:); July 1, 2010 at 4:01 PM
McFearless said...: Lowry's selling pressure is so intense right now that bulls have to go all out just to keep us at break even.; July 1, 2010 at 4:01 PM
bob said...: 1.2675 is the last most recent high in EURUSD, on 5/21, I bet there are a lot of stops above there too.; July 1, 2010 at 4:02 PM
I-Man said...: excuse me, I meant 1:30est...

Its tough living on the west coast, working for a chicago firm, and chatting with east coasters all day.; July 1, 2010 at 4:03 PM
I-Man said...: Might have to get 3 clocks...; July 1, 2010 at 4:04 PM
McFearless said...: Flavor Flav!; July 1, 2010 at 4:10 PM
Leftback said...: We bounced off chart support of 1012 today, going back to a short term top we reached back in August 2009. What a difference a year makes...

Tomorrow we might see a retest of today's low (if NFP is a stinker), or a move back to 1040 (if it is BTE). Broken support becomes resistance.; July 1, 2010 at 4:11 PM
I-Man said...: Get up a get get get down...; July 1, 2010 at 4:12 PM
bob said...: I

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrFzB3CvU9M; July 1, 2010 at 4:14 PM
McFearless said...: lefty, sounds look a pretty good playbook for tomorrow to me.; July 1, 2010 at 4:14 PM
Nic said...: Leftback
Nic does not <3 Fx correlation breakdown days either.
Today was all about deflation and yields I think.; July 1, 2010 at 4:15 PM
Leftback said...: Nic,

Perhaps we will have more fun tomorrow. Good call today on the gold short. Missed the trade - even though it was obvious, LB couldn't pull the trigger, have been totally out of synch while on the road.; July 1, 2010 at 4:21 PM
bob said...: Just another observation on EURUSD

All of the MA's(20, 50, 100 and 200) bottomed are now pointing up on the 4h, first time in a long time.

The 20, 100 and 200 all converged on 1.2250 before/during the run up.; July 1, 2010 at 4:28 PM
Nic said...: "What we have witnessed today is well described in many economic Ph.D textbooks; the bloggers are overreacting" - Kartik Athreya Ph.D; July 1, 2010 at 4:44 PM
BinT said...: Reminds me of that old musical

There's no business like slow business like no business....I KNOW!

...wait a minute..; July 1, 2010 at 4:46 PM
McFearless said...: how about this, I've been getting 500-1k in $100 bills for quite a long time now at the end of each month and holding the cash. it's never been a problem until recently.

Three straight months now when I went to do this the bank tells me first that they don't have $100's, then I have to say "I only want 100's so nevermind if you don't have them" and then they will go in the back and get them for me.

anyone else having this happen?; July 1, 2010 at 4:52 PM
BinT said...: No, but I would be happy to store them for you for a small fee, Ben.; July 1, 2010 at 4:54 PM
McFearless said...: 100's are very rare, as I'm to understand it 90% of them are held outside the US, I'm wondering if there is a shortage, its probably nothing but I'd be interested if anyone else has had this come up.; July 1, 2010 at 4:56 PM
Ben Bernanke said...: We are sequestering the Benjamins for the next helicopter drop.; July 1, 2010 at 4:56 PM
Anonymous said...: Anyone seen CV and Karen lately?; July 1, 2010 at 4:57 PM
BinT said...: Heck, Ben, I've been worried about Lefty. See his comment at 4:21. He's been on the road, you see, and is so out of whack he can't pull his trigger. Karen, any ideas?; July 1, 2010 at 4:59 PM
BinT said...: Anyone seen CV and Karen lately?

...They were going over to Lefty's to look at his trigger....; July 1, 2010 at 5:01 PM
McFearless said...: I gotta call my buddy at the Wachovia branch here and see what they are doing.

Bruce,

ha! I bet karen has some ideas, and I also bet Lefty wants to hear them.; July 1, 2010 at 5:01 PM

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

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Morning Audibles 7.1.10

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