TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 6.30.10 - Let the CRAZY IVANS Begin!

Morning Audibles 6.30.10 - Let the CRAZY IVANS Begin!

Yesterday... With a TRIN of 5.88, CV basically has nothing to say except...

"Let the CRAZY IVAN's begin"... (Hey - It's damn near 4th of July weekend - right?)...

The baffles is the area in the water directly behind a submarine or ship through which a hull-mounted sonar cannot hear. This blind spot is caused by the need to insulate a sonar, commonly mounted near the bow, from the noise of the vessel's machinery.

Following a vessel by hiding in its baffles was a common submarine surveillance technique during the Cold War, which led to the tactics of "clearing the baffles".

Variants of this technique include the "Crazy Ivan", a baffle-clearing manoeuvre intended to bring the followed submarine onto an attack heading and typically used by the Soviet Navy...

Seaman Jones: Conn, sonar! Crazy Ivan!
Capt. Bart Mancuso: All stop! Quick quiet!
[the ships engines are shut down completely]
Beaumont: What's goin' on?
Seaman Jones: Russian captains sometime turn suddenly to see if anyone's behind them. We call it "Crazy Ivan." The only thing you can do is go dead. Shut everything down and make like a hole in the water.
Beaumont: So what's the catch?
Seaman Jones: The catch is, a boat this big doesn't exactly stop on a dime... and if we're too close, we'll drift right into the back of him.

299 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 299 of 299 Newer› Newest»

72bat said...: the family stone getting higher live; June 30, 2010 at 2:09 PM
karen said...: thank you, bat! i never get tired of that tune.. almost posted the tina version.; June 30, 2010 at 2:10 PM
karen said...: http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2010/Investment+Outlook+Gross+Alphabet+Soup+July.htm; June 30, 2010 at 2:17 PM
mcHAPPY said...: A wicked bounce at 1040 would certainly set the table for a shorting opportunity.; June 30, 2010 at 2:18 PM
McFearless said...: falling asleep.....must stay awake.....; June 30, 2010 at 2:21 PM
karen said...: well, i'm speechless and grossed by Gross:

There are 6.5 billion people in the world and will soon be 1 billion more. Many of them are debt-free and have never used a credit card or assumed a home mortgage. Why can’t lenders like PIMCO lend to them, allowing developing nations to bring
their consumption forward, developed nations to supply the goods and services, and the world to resume its “old normal” path toward future profits, prosperity and increasing standard of living? To a certain extent that is what should gradually happen, promoting more rapid growth
in the emerging nations and a subdued semblance of it in the G-7 – a “new normal.”; June 30, 2010 at 2:21 PM
karen said...: Happy, i told you much earlier that the spx high was in for the day... my lack of credibility doesn't bother me a bit! laughing; June 30, 2010 at 2:23 PM
karen said...: note from a goldman desk:

http://www.marksmarketanalysis.com/2010/06/scary-note-from-one-goldman-desk_30.html; June 30, 2010 at 2:25 PM
BinT said...: http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2010/06/30/as-steel-mills-sneeze-global-shippers-catch-a-cold/?KEYWORDS=baltic+dry+index

As Steel Mills Sneeze, Global Shippers Catch a Cold

"For all its failures at forging a united front to control global iron-ore prices, China still has the heft to remind us that the appetite of the world’s biggest steel factory matters, a lot, when it comes to influencing commodity markets.

Exhibit A comes from the Baltic Dry Index, which could use a drink after June’s performance.

Shipbrokers say the plunge, which more than halved capesize-vessel freight rates in a month, is due to faltering demand for iron ore from Chinese steel mills, as they grapple with a tougher export environment as well as policy moves to rein excess construction."; June 30, 2010 at 2:28 PM
McFearless said...: why is the answer to everything about the extension of credit?

and what a dream land does Gross live in? (oh right, nevermind he's from California, sorry karen)

developed nations do in fact have plenty of "services" but certainly not the kind that are in demand in developing nations...I doubt what Africa needs in order to find the path to prosperity are travel agents and KFC's on all the jungle paths. What goods can we provide these developing nations? Ipads? Stuff like that?

guy is very calculating, that's how you get to a billion....I met with PIMCO several weeks and was told they were pushing back into some emerging markets, those comments say as much between the lines.

how about we all get back to using real money and stop this bullshit.; June 30, 2010 at 2:34 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Ben,

Am I sleep deprived or do you see the A and B formed off yesterday's low until right now with the top of the A at todays high?; June 30, 2010 at 2:36 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Certainly, incumbent politicians want to see the credit bubble re-emerge.; June 30, 2010 at 2:36 PM
AmenRa said...: My gut is telling me that weekly claims>500k tomorrow.; June 30, 2010 at 2:42 PM
McFearless said...: McHappy,

I don't see why what you are saying couldn't be playing out, but nobody really knows what wave it is, lol.; June 30, 2010 at 2:42 PM
McFearless said...: no doubt about that DL, even the one's that say they don't.; June 30, 2010 at 2:43 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Karen,

I'm not too worried about today's high. Don't want to be shorting at 1040 when there is a very real possibility we could hit 1080.; June 30, 2010 at 2:51 PM
arbitrage789 said...: AmenRa @ 2:42

Surely, we're due for a rally, if only for a day.; June 30, 2010 at 2:52 PM
karen said...: AR, today is still only Wednesday, btw.. nonfarm and unemployment print on Friday.; June 30, 2010 at 2:52 PM
Smartass said...: AmenRa said...
My gut is telling me that weekly claims>500k tomorrow.

....Probably just gas....

:); June 30, 2010 at 2:54 PM
karen said...: happy, i just think 104/1040 is not turnaround spot.. to weak.. count how many times it's been tapped.. we just need one more straw here.; June 30, 2010 at 2:57 PM
McFearless said...: one thing is for sure about claims, no matter what the number, it's gonna be unexpected.; June 30, 2010 at 2:57 PM
AmenRa said...: Ben

BWAHAHAHA

_____________

Karen

Weekly Claims is on Thursday :-); June 30, 2010 at 3:01 PM
karen said...: i didn't know boz scaggs was a vintner! I wish I could go to this... LOVE this hotel, too. stayed there two times and highly recommend!

http://www.lmgdata.com/images/email/BARDES/wBARDES_063010.htm; June 30, 2010 at 3:02 PM
karen said...: AR.. i stand completely corrected! should have pulled up my trusty link, http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/EconodayFrame.asp; June 30, 2010 at 3:03 PM
karen said...: now i am a complete wreck.. you can see it in the sheer number of my posts.; June 30, 2010 at 3:04 PM
McFearless said...: time to bust out more port karen.; June 30, 2010 at 3:06 PM
karen said...: this particular goldminer has done very well over the last 8 years.. too well.. looks like a short, GOLD.; June 30, 2010 at 3:09 PM
karen said...: ben, coincidentally:

jfahmy
CNBC just ran a segment "Don't Drink and Trade." Yeah, because trading sober is helping people make tons of money!
7 minutes ago via TweetDeck; June 30, 2010 at 3:10 PM
72bat said...: @ karen -
oh yessss! one of the best reds i ever consumed was grown and vinted ~1974 by mt. veeder vineyards, great terroir.; June 30, 2010 at 3:10 PM
karen said...: isn't trading a high in and of itself? laughing..; June 30, 2010 at 3:11 PM
bob said...: http://www.forexlive.com/116386/all/weird-russian-spy-case-just-got-weirder

The video is way too good not to share.; June 30, 2010 at 3:11 PM
karen said...: if i do drink during a week day it is immediately after 1 PM at the close : ); June 30, 2010 at 3:12 PM
karen said...: nvestors decided to yank their money out of stock funds in May, as the market melted around them.

Indeed, strategists remind us, that was the worst May for the market since 1962 and the worst month since February 2009. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which includes holdings such as Exxon (XOM), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Bank of America (BAC), declined 7.9%.

Your friends and neighbors responded. Specifically, according to the latest data from the Investment Company Institute, investors pulled $24.67 billion from stock funds in May.

That more than reversed the $13.2 billion April intake. It was the largest withdrawal since March 2009, according to ICI.

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/invest-stock-market-s2526p-500-etf/6/30/2010/id/29001?; June 30, 2010 at 3:17 PM
BinT said...: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-30/majority-of-u-s-workers-lost-jobs-wages-or-hours-pew-says.html

June 30 (Bloomberg) -- More than half of U.S. workers were either unemployed or experienced reductions in hours or wages since the recession began in December 2007, according to a private report.

The worst economic slump since the 1930s has affected 55 percent of adults in the labor force, the Washington-based Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan organization, said today. The survey found that 32 percent of employees where jobless at some point during the past 30 months.

The pace of hiring suggests it will take years for the world’s largest economy to recover the more than 8 million jobs lost during the contraction. A slow rebound in employment stifles consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy.

“A unique feature of the Great Recession is that, for the first time, the majority of the unemployed workers had lost their jobs for good,” Pew said in the report. “Households have adopted a more fiscally conservative path since the recession started.”; June 30, 2010 at 3:17 PM
karen said...: Okay, i can take a hint.; June 30, 2010 at 3:17 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Karen @ 3:11

More like "highs" and "lows".; June 30, 2010 at 3:18 PM
bob said...: I hope your not assuming that was aimed at you Karen, it wasn't. Just my bad timing, all week, that's why I am just watching.; June 30, 2010 at 3:19 PM
karen said...: bob, if you had aimed at me, i didn't get it.. but, i seem to be the only one posting today.. now it is embarrassing.; June 30, 2010 at 3:22 PM
chance, the gardener said...: i like to watch, too; June 30, 2010 at 3:23 PM
CV said...: Hi y'all, just checking in...

Oh my word good golly, looks like markets are down...

Anybody know why?; June 30, 2010 at 3:24 PM
BinT said...: CV:

This one's for you.

http://www.businessweek.com/bschools/content/jun2010/bs20100618_385280.htm?campaign_id=rss_topStories

College: Big Investment, Paltry Return

The value of a college degree is a middle-class article of faith. But exclusive new research suggests it may be far less than previously thought; June 30, 2010 at 3:25 PM
CV said...: @bob

If you're having problem with your "aim"...

Try putting one of those congressional target thingy's in the urinal when you pee...

That always helps...; June 30, 2010 at 3:25 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Karen @ 3:22

We're all hanging on your every word.; June 30, 2010 at 3:26 PM
bob said...: I just need more hasselhoff, everything will be alright.; June 30, 2010 at 3:28 PM
I-Man said...: karen... you're a badass.

sold at 1033.75... we'll see...

Could we really be free fallin to the teens?; June 30, 2010 at 3:30 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

Maybe Wangers magic number will reel it all in by the close...; June 30, 2010 at 3:32 PM
I-Man said...: I'm thinking a buy lim @ 1016...; June 30, 2010 at 3:35 PM
arbitrage789 said...: It does seem that at some point the SPX has got to rally back up to its 50 day MA.; June 30, 2010 at 3:37 PM
I-Man said...: Thats just the next support line I have on my hourly charts... I dont actually believe that.; June 30, 2010 at 3:38 PM
bob said...: AUDUSD putting in a new recent low; June 30, 2010 at 3:38 PM
McFearless said...: why?; June 30, 2010 at 3:38 PM
karen said...: zerohedge

sorry longs. the PPT is in line for the iPhone 4
5 minutes ago via TweetDeck; June 30, 2010 at 3:39 PM
CV said...: SPX says...

"one of these days I'm going to rally back up to my 50 day MA - just to make that DL guy happy"; June 30, 2010 at 3:40 PM
bob said...: USDJPY also very near low for the year; June 30, 2010 at 3:40 PM
I-Man said...: I dont even want to get up and piss...; June 30, 2010 at 3:40 PM
anonymous said...: "I-Man said...
I'm thinking a buy lim @ 1016..."

did you mean 1026 or 1008? these are the downside 18 multiples; June 30, 2010 at 3:42 PM
McFearless said...: i'm sticking with waves, longs are fighting the trend, whether you count a C wave or 3, we've got further to fall; June 30, 2010 at 3:42 PM
McFearless said...: stick a fork in this thing...it's done.

I got lucky with today's short, I didn't expect this action heading into the close.; June 30, 2010 at 3:43 PM
CV said...: @Amen

Looks like we're going to get that NAZ monthly reversal...; June 30, 2010 at 3:44 PM
arbitrage789 said...: I-Man,

They oughta install live data feeds in the bathroom stalls.; June 30, 2010 at 3:44 PM
McFearless said...: "did you mean 1026 or 1008? these are the downside 18 multiples"

how far back are you testing this? enough to be meaningful?

what is the significance of 18 and are you using other figures with the 18 to represent a growth or decay pattern?; June 30, 2010 at 3:44 PM
I-Man said...: anon,

target order to close a short, timing thing; June 30, 2010 at 3:45 PM
McFearless said...: hell yes, look at these charts man....every day it's got action more and more like a wave 3; June 30, 2010 at 3:45 PM
I-Man said...: right at the close; June 30, 2010 at 3:45 PM
CV said...: Almost 102 on TLT; June 30, 2010 at 3:46 PM
McFearless said...: well, I guess we can call GS and let them no we aren't overtaking their ever important technical level today.; June 30, 2010 at 3:47 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Sitting on my hands.... pissed to the max. Cash to fight another day is the only positive I can say.; June 30, 2010 at 3:48 PM
AmenRa said...: Desperation push by the bulls....; June 30, 2010 at 3:49 PM
I-Man said...: heck of a time to start daytrading es...; June 30, 2010 at 3:49 PM
McFearless said...: oh quick, quick, what's the catalyst for this...find me some news already!; June 30, 2010 at 3:50 PM
arbitrage789 said...: I-Man

Trial by fire; June 30, 2010 at 3:50 PM
CV said...: find me some news already!

FAT TOES; June 30, 2010 at 3:52 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Stop the presses... hold everything.

Moody's is considering a downgrade of Spain's debt.

Shocking....but true.; June 30, 2010 at 3:53 PM
CV said...: @Amen

Desperation push by the bulls...

That was COGNOOSE buying the dip...; June 30, 2010 at 3:54 PM
Anonymous said...: @ McF

Chart the multiples of 18 on SPX of price not time. plug these numbers (mar09 low to present) into excel.

1 684
2 828
3 792
4 936
5 882
6 1,062
7 1,026
8 1,080
9 1,044
10 1,134
11 1,062
12 1,206
13 1,116
14 1,170
15 1,062
16 1,116
17 1,044 Where we are now until 1026 or 1062 is taken out.

it'll show the trend, up or down.; June 30, 2010 at 3:54 PM
CV said...: @DL

Moody's is just pissed that S&P downgraded them...

They're lashing out...; June 30, 2010 at 3:55 PM
CV said...: feel the fury; June 30, 2010 at 3:55 PM
McFearless said...: Future headline:

Internal memo's reveal Moody's was close to downgrading own debt before bankruptcy.

in comments about the bankruptcy Warren Buffett said, "everyone missed this"; June 30, 2010 at 3:57 PM
AmenRa said...: Now that 1040 is broken what excuses will the MSM use now?; June 30, 2010 at 3:57 PM
McFearless said...: thanks anon, I'll take a look.; June 30, 2010 at 3:58 PM
CV said...: Brian Wesbury says...

"Where are all the BARGAIN HUNTERS"?; June 30, 2010 at 3:58 PM
AmenRa said...: Berkshire may get hit with $8b collateral call if FinReg passes. Warren ain't too thrilled.; June 30, 2010 at 3:58 PM
I-Man said...: may be something to this 18 business...; June 30, 2010 at 3:58 PM
I-Man said...: dude the es was at precisely 1026 at the ny close...; June 30, 2010 at 4:00 PM
AmenRa said...: Why 18? 18 is 9 anyway :); June 30, 2010 at 4:01 PM
karen said...: gotta run.. thanks for the fun : ); June 30, 2010 at 4:01 PM
McFearless said...: I-man,

anything with a pattern, 18's got my interest, I want to take it back further than 3/09, see if there is some cycle work going on here.; June 30, 2010 at 4:01 PM
CV said...: @Amen

"Berkshire may get hit with $8b collateral call if FinReg passes. Warren ain't too thrilled."

That's why THE VOTE on it is delayed... Wouldn't want to pass it "as is" until THAT is removed now would we?; June 30, 2010 at 4:01 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Anon,

That is some interesting stuff.; June 30, 2010 at 4:02 PM
I-Man said...: chai; June 30, 2010 at 4:03 PM
McFearless said...: could be any number really, look at what the fibo sequence does when you change it up a bit

3, 3, 6, 9, 15, 24, 39, 63, 102

63/102 = .61765

It's PHItastic.; June 30, 2010 at 4:03 PM
I-Man said...: Would you like a phi chai latte?
:); June 30, 2010 at 4:05 PM
CV said...: @McF

Look what it does when you put a time variable to it...

http://www.blogaholics.ca/wp/uploads/a04027.jpg; June 30, 2010 at 4:05 PM
Anonymous said...: 18's

nothings for sure but this has seemed to work for many years. You're right, 9 is half of 18 but there will be less whipsaws using 18, and even less using 36 but trades/trends less often. Using other indicators as buy/sell and use this as enter/exit points. I have traded this long and short many times until the next multiple is hit.
Using the numbers above, you can see the higher highs and high lows, then it turns.; June 30, 2010 at 4:12 PM
Anonymous said...: lol CV; June 30, 2010 at 4:14 PM
McFearless said...: oh man, I just had to get a little aggressive with a client.....not good.; June 30, 2010 at 4:44 PM
Mannwich said...: Epic day at the ballpark (weather-wise anyway). What did I miss? Looks like an ugly close for the bulls (AGAIN)? ;-); June 30, 2010 at 4:48 PM
I-Man said...: did you punch him mcf?

:); June 30, 2010 at 4:54 PM
BinT said...: Ben:

A half-nelson arm lock generally keeps clients in line...sometimes a sleeper hold...; June 30, 2010 at 5:41 PM

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

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Morning Audibles 6.30.10 - Let the CRAZY IVANS Begin!

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