On SURVIVOR CAPITAL over the weekend...
We're from the Government and we're here to help...
(after we tax you $1 billion for security and you pay out bloated pensions)
--- (reprinted from 6.27.10 - by Andy T)
Good Evening Survivor Captialists,
I must be honest here--my heart just wasn't into looking at markets after this weekend's World Cup matches, with both the US and England getting bounced. (More on this later.)
In terms of markets:
- Too many people are talking about the developing head and shoulder top on the S&P 500. I hate when that happens because it increases the chances it won't develop. It seems like a pattern likely to disappoint and frustrate over the next several weeks.
- I see more choppy upward-bias correction coming in the S&P this week. It's difficult to visualize the market falling hard around the quarter end. It seems fitting that "new money" must flow in before the next meaningful correction lower.
- The DXY looks like it needs more time to correct lower. It could chop as low as 80 and still be considered bullish. So, keep the powder dry there.
Some USA/England World Cup Thoughts....
The U.S. Team just looked “gassed.” I think the intensity of the last couple of games finally caught up with them. Jozy Altidore, in particular, looked in need of better conditioning and diet. At times he looked clumsy and slow. If the
The
293 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 293 of 293 Newer› Newest»Well, as for me and mine, we'll be watching ESPN II tonight to see The Natural pitch against the Braves...I can hardly wait.
bat, that quote explained it all, didn't it? hubris extremis.
TJWB's?
@BinT
SS is on my fantasy baseball team (yeah baby!)...
The Jerk Who Blogs....
The Jerk says
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3Vp9fQ616k
@BinT
The only problem with TJWB is that by definition of the genius at the FRB of Richmond, that doesn't distinguish CV from any other bloggers...
tgjwb's
The Grouchy Jerk ......?
c, the question on time duration of 3 is a bit tough to answer easily because it's going to relate to the waves that preceeded it and the overall structure.
In general as well we'd focus on form, then price targets, and then time, in that order always keeping in mind if you can count your wave 1 and two properly and are confident in your set-up, the main thing you'll focus on as a waver is the fact that wave 3 cannot ever be the shortest wave, the most basic EW rule. Therefore rather than worrying about the exact amount of time 3 would take, you focus on it getting to the price objective instead. this helped me stay patient as a bear in 2009, I just kept saying we should hit 1k minimum and I would wait until then to worry about getting out of new longs. That was a perfectly normal price target for a Primary Wave 2 retracement even though it sounded insane at sub 700 with the end of the world approaching.
we can apply ratio and cycle analysis to the wave pattern to come up with good time targets, but it should probably take a back seat to form and price.
gettin' warmer :-)
how about TGJWB&DGARA?
"The Grouchy Jerk who blogs & doesn't give a rats ass"
But that's STILL pretty close to...
TWSICWB&DGARA
The Wall Streeter In Cash Who Blogs & Doesn't Give a Rat's Ass"...
ben! is jcg a buy? : )
@MCF
Thanks for taking the time to explain that...
You know... It's funny... CV is the type who likes to tinker (that's why I haven't DOVE HEAD FIRST into EW from the first time I heard about it - mostly from you and Andy)...
But I was always intrigued (and have picked up a few ideas along the way)...
I'm more the VISUAL type... So from a basic standpoint...
- I can count and see...
- I can do math (so I know what FIBO's are)
What you just said there cleared up something for me... I had always thought "3's" were the longest wave...
Instead - they CAN'T be the shortest...
That's a big difference... In understanding potential "look"...
Fellow TGJWB's site followers:
If today's action follows the last several weeks, we should see a sell-off start in about 30 minutes...
The trend...
@CV
I've been learning the hard way that on a wave 2 any retrace should go at minimum .5. EW calls for a minimum .382 but lately I've been finding we stop just short of this and then head down hard, only to be met with a harder push up usually to just past the .5.
I keep trying to get a time perspective by looking back at Primary 1 from October '07 to March '09 (17 Months) and breaking down that decline in to its sub-sections or intermediate waves.
intermediate 1 - mid october-mid march '08
intermeidate 2 - march '08-june '08
intermediate 3 - june '08-late november '08
intermediate 4 - end november'08-early january '09
intermediate 5 - early january-March '09.
I figure P3 - if this is what it really is - we should be looking at a steady decline with many bumps along the way for about 2 years or so.
@McF
Don't scold me, YET, for not buying the book and learning for myself, but one simple question...
On that wave 3 rule: Does "length" refer to ending VECTOR
or
length along X axis? (time)
Hey, I didn't see the time question. My 2:22 was just thoughts that have been going through my head this weekend.
CV,
With you knowledge of FIBO's and chart skills, you should pick up EW with ease. Only 2 things you would need:
1) Get your head around the levels of the sub-minutte, minutte, minute, minor, intermeidate, primary, etc.
2) know the 3 golden rules: i) wave 2 can never retrace beyond the start of wave 1, ii) wave 3 can never be the shortest, and iii) wave 4 cannot extend in to wave 1 (on a close)
@mCHappy
The elements in (2) are the ones I basically have in my head as working knowledge...
I don't like to get into counting smaller waves (because my risk appetite is NOT to trade those levels)...
CV is a Taurus... I have the patience to wait out the larger waves...
But I had to learn that the hard way (a product of my "Gemini rising")...
C,
You know what did it for me on EW...it's simple with defined rules. What's complex about 5 moves in the direction of the larger trend and 3 against it. Answer: Nothing! I'm a visual learner as well the basic concept in EW always "made sense" to me, or a lot more sense than every other thing I was taught prior, then when you observe markets actually go by the rules, when you can SEE it, then it really gets exciting.
If you spend about one week with that EWP book you can learn all the basic rules of EW and it can become a great tool along with other things for the smaller individual trader.
Getting to the level of Andy where you are doing X waves etc breaking out different degrees of subwaves, well that takes a lot longer and a lot more effort.
@McHappy
If you've ever seem my NFL predictions, you'd know that...
I always have
1 star, 2 star, 3 star, 4 star, & 5 star picks...
I'll make a call on every game...
But I pretty much only bet real cash on the 4's & 5's...
lol - yes, I do not recommend basing anything off squiggles. Experience has taught me this.
the hardest thing for most people that were already involved in markets before coming to EW is freeing yourself of the thoughts that say news events create price changes in the market, that the markets follow the news and price changes are caused by news. Once you can get off of that, EW will take you places nothing else will....imo that is.
Ever tried mescaline?
C,
your 2:22, in fact it can apply to both, I'll see if I can get you over some charts that show it before the week is out....that's the real detailed work that I wish I had more time for.
it's the only way to fly I-man.
@McF (2:36)
That's why I'd prefer the KISS approach...
Besides - I think the smaller waves MUST have a higher chance of being HIJACKED by either daily news flow or other types of things (like a hedge fund blowing up unexpectedly due to an unanticipated event in other markets)...
Which, essentially, changes the nature of the smaller wave... (It MORPHS it into a different structure)...
So, it doesn't CHANGE the idea of EW, it just changes the final "look"...
I think THAT is where "non-believers" of EW would tend to get confused... They'd see that and say "Look - It doesn't work" (because a pattern gets hijacked)...
A waver would tell you...
"It is what it is"
OR
"The market wasn't READY"
Which, of course, would be true...
Haha... thats exactly what I was thinking of Ben...
I'm full of Matrix references...
I mean...
Let's say a death row inmate is scheduled to die by the electric chair at 12 midnight...
Then, at 11:59 the power goes out, and the backup generators fail as well...
That doesn't mean the execution gets called off, it just gets delayed (and recorded differently in the record books)...
C,
there are rule violations on shorter time frames and also sometimes you get a different count on ES vs. Cash. Here is how one of the analysts at EWI discusses that issue:
How do you handle discrepancies in wave counts between the cash indexes (i.e., the S&P 500) versus the futures indexes (i.e., ES), and do you include overnight trading in the wave counts of futures indexes? Thank you for your insight, it has really helped my trading!
Responder: Tom Prindaville
There is no easy answer. It's just as hazardous to blindly accept the all-sessions futures' wave structure as it is to only view the cash index as "the true pattern." Personally, I resolve the issue by looking at the larger Elliott wave view AND other tried-and-true technicals.
For instance, if the larger pattern calls for a five-wave move and the overnight trading produces it -- but the pit session for the index does not --then I will seriously consider the pattern to be complete. Although, I usually won't label the chart that way until further confirming price action occurs. (I note on my charts that the index count is being influenced by the futures' action.) Much of the time this approach works; sometimes, it does not. There are no set rules other than to ask, Did the futures finish a pattern, or reach targets, close an old gap, retest prior support/resistance levels or the prior close, etc.? I trust this reply is helpful, and thanks for the question.
@McF
RP is a solid supporter of DOW Theory, is he not?
Still trying to figure out how the bulls dodged this bullet today...
Its like no one wanted to trade today. Shouldve just taken the day off like I wanted to.
A full weekend at the pool will do that to a dread.
Thats a good tip there in that 2:46...
That is going to be the next elevation of my ES game.
Speaking about DOW THEORY...
Has anybody noticed that FDX is having the darndest time trying to carve out a bottom for the past 3-4 days RIGHT ON the February '10 lows?
CV, thanks for pointing that out.. fdx is another i like to keep an eye on..
I-man,
accepting EW is much like NEO taking the pill.
I remember a point where I said ok, I can see the three's and fives....and then I followed that with, but.....
it took me a few years to really give up on the news or the Fed moving markets, much like after it is revealed to Neo that he is in the matrix, he throws up and says NO!
"It can't be real"
and, the response from Morpheus
"Your mind makes it real"
prechter said something enlightning recently along these lines:
6/22/10:
Emotions are exogenously referred, consciously experienced feelings, regulated by a combination of mood, conditions and events. Mood is an endogenously regulated, unconsciously experienced mental state, regulated by Elliott Waves.
Mood predisposes people toward certain emotions. But before a person can experience an emotion, he must have a referent. People in a positive mood trend might credit a political leader or a musical group for their happy feelings. People in a negative mood trend might blame a political leader or their spouses for their unhapy feelings. So unconscious moods can produce conscious emotions via an external referent, but the root cause - mood - goes unrecognized.
I recently realized something very exciting about this area: People have no memory for their shared moods. They do remember emotions, however, which are expressed with reference to exogenous circumstances.
"RP is a solid supporter of DOW Theory, is he not?"
Yeah, he is. He calls Richard Russell his original market hero.
@karen
If you're looking for another "oddity" (TRANSPORT WISE)...
Look at the DAILY CANDLE of CSX on Flash Crash day (May 6th...
It had a huge print higher @62.00... AND... the low of the same day was a 61.8% retrace to the February '10 low...
Very strange candle indeed!
"That doesn't mean the execution gets called off, it just gets delayed (and recorded differently in the record books)"
yes, this is the one thing I hear someone that wants to be critical about EW say often "you guys keep relabeling the charts"
it's a pretty dumb thing to say if you ask me, we have to relabel the charts because we are assigning probability, good luck finding a tool that enables you to do that 100% correctly 100% of the time, and further, I rather like when we relabel, it's the de-facto way for the analyst to say "look, I was wrong", unlike the traditional economist who is just one of the masses that missed it all and now tells you "you can't understand this, you aren't a phd"
I posted about this guy the other day:
Former Citigroup, Inc (NYSE: C) trader Andrew Hall has posted a decline of more than 10% since May, according to a Friday report from the Wall Street Journal.
Hall’s hedge fund, Astenbeck Commodities Fund II, witnessed its weakest month in more than two years. The fund is down more than 10% this year through may, well behind its peers average loss of 5%.
Hall left Citigroup, Inc (NYSE: C) in 2009 amid criticism about the company’s compensation practices. Critics said that Citigroup, Inc (NYSE: C) and other large-cap banks were paying their executives too much while they had received bailout funds from taxpayers. Citigroup, Inc (NYSE: C) sold the unit (Phibro LLC) to avoid a confrontation with the U.S. Treasury over Hall’s salary to Occidental Petroleum Corp. for $370 million.
While working at Citigroup, Inc (NYSE: C), Phibro earned an average of $371 million annually for five years before the sale was completed. Hall was paid around $100 million in 2008 by Citigroup, Inc (NYSE: C).
sorry, grabbed that from:
http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2010/06/28/former-citigroup-inc-nyse-c-energy-trader-posts-10-loss/?
@karen
So far FDX looks like it's trying to carve out a bottom at those Feb 10 lows...
So far...
"Hall was paid around $100 million in 2008 by Citigroup, Inc"
CORRECTION - Hall was paid around $100 million by YOU, the US taxpayer...
@karen: Me thinks Hall will find it tougher to fare as well without C's balance sheet and TBTF Fed backing. I could be wrong though.
@McF
But you CAN'T understand this... You're NOT a PHD...
"Kneel before Zod"!
hard to say Manny, John Arnold worked at Enron once.
Andrew Hall is a badass. I'd take any lesson that dude would want to teach me.
Barack Obama says...
"I managed a Dairy Queen once"...
... no wait, I guess I didn't, after all...
from what i've read about hall he's one sicko trader....he's got a set of those brass balls from Glenn Gary Glenn Ross.
Just like any other pro trader, dude was paid a portion of his profits. I got no problem with him... if Citi was smart, they would've kept him.
Although, I do have some issues with his spending habits...
But thats between him and Jah.
Fine... so he's a great trader...
CV objects to "subsidizing" a traders bonus funded by taxing citizens in MONOPOLY MONEY increments...
That's like BEYONCE asking for millions to appear at a "benefit" concert...
Well, if Citi had been allowed to fail...
It would be a moot point. So the beef should be with Paulson and Bernanke, not with Hall.
1065 close would be so sick...
Ben,
You seeing the triange formed from mid-day Friday until 1080 today (around 3:10)?
The camel's gettin tired...
Magic bids...
Fuckers.
In keeping with markets being moved by news, today MarketWatch offers this insightful analysis:
"Court moves lift the Street"
I am trying to learn some EW rules.
How strict is the rule that wave 2 cannot be a triangle?
I am looking at the move down in SPX since 21 June.
Justice Department announces arrests of 10 secret agents allegedly spying for Russia -- AP
3 minutes ago via breakingnews.com
Who da hell is holding up the market for EOM?
something i missed earlier
BP exec: Full containment of oil leak possible by mid-July if new containment cap works optimally
about 5 hours ago via breakingnews.com
i'm seeing crude and the cando rolling over now.. rumors played out..
see what I mean?
Anyone watching this ES chart?
Where the F is the SEC when this shit goes down??
Oh yeah, watching tranny porn.
Full disclosure, I actually am making money off of them, but still... its the principle of the thing.
No one should be able to game the mkt like that to suit their ends.
Its a disgrace to capitalism.
TLT.. breakout..
JNK, stick a fork in it.
Its pathetic.
Canada Bonds Move Higher Amid Global Economic Worries
3:51 PM ET 6/28/10 | Dow Jones
By Karen Johnson
TORONTO (Dow Jones)--Canadian bonds ended higher across the board on Monday amid fresh worries about the global economic outlook.
I hope I live to see the SEC and the CFTC exposed for the utter frauds that they are.
"Fed watchers say Mr Bernanke and his close allies at the Board in Washington are worried by signs that the US recovery is running out of steam. The ECRI leading indicator published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute has collapsed to a 45-week low of -5.7 in the most precipitous slide for half a century. Such a reading typically portends contraction within three months or so.
Key members of the five-man Board are quietly mulling a fresh burst of asset purchases, if necessary by pushing the Fed's balance sheet from $2.4 trillion (£1.6 trillion) to uncharted levels of $5 trillion. But they are certain to face intense scepticism from regional hardliners. The dispute has echoes of the early 1930s when the Chicago Fed stymied rescue efforts."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7852945/Ben-Bernanke-needs-fresh-monetary-blitz-as-US-recovery-falters.html
...More the guts of the Telegraph article. It appears to this country boy that a double dip is assured, after all it is debt repudiation this time, not an inventory excess..
Phew... glad I covered my short at 3:58!
Anyone see that rip at the close?
Did you read this one too BinT?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7857595/RBS-tells-clients-to-prepare-for-monster-money-printing-by-the-Federal-Reserve.html
Nic, I think Bernanke is like a wolf with its foot in a trap...I am wondering if he's really going to chew it off and sink us all..
@BinT
From where I am sitting a slide to March '09 area on the tape followed by a multi-month rebound - possibly up to 1200 range - is all but assured with the following headlines assured on the way up, "Double Dip recession over!", "Onwards and Upwards", "DOW 20K here we come!", "W-Shaped Recovery takes hold"
Of course, this will not end pretty.
Spinning top resolved by a spinning top?
When its wild at the close like that, somethings a brewin...
Tomorrow morning should be fun.
@Nic
I'm not sure about the wave 2 not being a triangle rule. I have not heard it. I"ll check EWP later this evening.
@Nic
I've got it!...
Why don't they knock another 200 basis points off the Fed Funds rate...?
I'm a PHD and I'm here to help...
CV
Damn you I was just thinking about that...lol.
Nic,
My understanding is that a triangle cannot appear alone in wave 2, but can appear with company...zigzag + triangle, for example. I'm new to this, also- hopefully one of our EW gurus can confirm this.
IW
Yeah, the Fed's got to buy some more BAD ASS assets.
@Amen
Deflation bitchez! :-)
@Amen
Or were you referring to "spinning top"'s...
Anyway... This spinning top has to go spin his top at the gym...
Later y'all...
CV
Spinning tops. But according to the Taylor Rule the Fed Funds Rate should be negative (I think).
this is too good!
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2010/06/apple_says_to_stop_holding_you.html?f=most-commented-intel-7d5
but i must say.. my current iphone gets lousy reception.. i blame it on AT&T
DL 4:16
lol
Ironworker,
Thx for the coffee tips the other day, mon.
Bat, also...
Yall have upped my coffee IQ by leaps and bounds in the last week... (and I-Man actually worked at a starbux once when I first moved out west.)
i found a new, interesting blog:
http://themoneydemand.blogspot.com/
Anybody seen my glasses?
As for the ES...
Today was a lesson in persistance for I-Man... tried shorting a few times early, only to have been clipped out for 3 ticks each time.
Had a moment of deja vu of fridays close when we headed back to that 1076 (after not breaking down at 1072 around 1:30 CST... bullet dodge,) and was able to sneak a great sell limit in at 1076.5... damn near perfect.
Although the actual order entry was close to perfect, the trade itself was far from it. Once again ignored the target (1071).
Could have bagged it 3 times around 2:30cst, but didnt. Was a pig once more. That forced me to sit thru face ripper squeeze up to 1075, and almost ran away- luckily, had the nerve to stick with it thru the close and take a nice gain.
Just sharing all this to make a point that its important to stick with your plan.
I could have made a winner a loser, and more importantly- could have bagged a winner, and then put a cherry on top by shorting that bs pump at 2:30cst into the close.
Instead I taxed myself and made it hard, being a greedy bitch.
Gotta love trading. :)
i-man -
you'll have to remind me what it is i've contributed to your coffee journey???
i've actually refrained from commenting on the french press pot thing 'cos it's my least favorite brew. imho it allows too much acidity/bitter oils to pass into the brew, but enjoy: de gustibus non est disputandum.
karen -
someday (soon?) you'll have some muddy water to try.
72,
I think you posted this?
http://coffeegeek.com/guides/presspot
If not, my bad... musta been irie.
I-Man,
You're very welcome...I like these guys for my green beans, lots of info on the site, as well:
www.sweetmarias.com
IW
Post a Comment