Morning Audibles 4.7.10 - Some Crappy 2 Bit TA

About 90% of what I've been reading lately are articles and comments which try to underline, (or 'debunk') the notion that the market seems OVERBOUGHT at the moment. Half say equities are due for some kind of correction, the other half say we're 'in the clear' (as many of the REASONS for it to possibly go down - from technical barriers, to EW patterns, to OPEXpirations, to bond sales, to Greek defaults - don't seem to be having any effect on the ARMOR of the indices). 


I've decided to look at the situation from a simpler view (note: there are SOME annotations on the charts, but a lot of my comments you can just read here). 


VIX DAILY - Since the March '09 lows, when the DAILY VIX has pierced it's DAILY bollinger bands, it's tended to lead to 'minor' corrections (mostly UNDER 5%, and more often than not, smaller than that, generally in the 2-3% range). We've also been discussing the 16 level on the VIX (which served as the level in October '07, and in May '08), something to keep in mind as the VIX hit 16.23 yesterday.

VIX WEEKLY - More interesting to me is how the VIX has behaved when it has pierced the lower bollingers on a WEEKLY chart. This is indeed a rare occurrence. Most recently it did that in January '10. Usually this is a signal that a DEEPER correction is coming (in the 10% range). What's interesting most recently though, is that the lower bollingers have stretched all the way down to the "14" handle. So for this to occur, we'd either need some shock to the system to occur, or, as bulls may have it, we may just find ourselves at ZERO soon and the DOW would just continue to chug along to 36,000 about the rate of a half a percent per day.



SPX - I then decided to take a look at TIMESCALES (since the March '09 low). The boxes you see annotated are the number of days [trough to peak], in the rallies we've experienced. The first rally I counted from the EOQ '09 (instead of the actual low) because it actually did represent a "correction low. Note that all of the rallies have thus far been very close to the FIBONACCI number of 55. Interestingly, the duration of the all of the "corrections" from these boxes were EXACT fibonacci numbers (21, 8, & 13 respectively). I did take a little creative license in saying that the MIDDLE BOX actually finished in September of '09, then took a little dip and resumed. However, the eventual EXTENSION did finish with the same design.


The reason I point that out is that we may be in front of the same type of phenomenon here. We are 41 days into the most recent rally... 55 days, from here, seems like an "eternity" when one considers how technically overbought the markets may seem in this moment. Half the people are calling for us to "complete" a move to 1200, or the 1220's. The other half CAN'T BEAR to endure another 13 trading days of drudgery (if the case is to be made to make ANOTHER sequential 51-55 box as I've illustrated on the chart).


Anyway, you decide. But CV is always thinking of ways to keep his sanity. My ideas and 10 cents will get you a cup of coffee (assuming you don't spill the beans all over the floor). 






& if you're thinking... "CV, you CANNOT get a "caramel macchiato" from Starbucks for 10 cents"... Oh contraire! Here's the "do it at home" version:



Ingredients
6 ounces coffee (brewed)
6 ounces milk (steamed)
1-2 teaspoon sugar or Splenda sugar substitute (to taste)
3 teaspoons caramel syrup
1/2 teaspoon artificial vanilla flavoring
reddi whipped cream
caramel syrup, drizzled

Directions
- To make a strong coffee, you can brew a ratio of 3 heaping tbsp of coffee to 6 cups water.
- Add vanillia to the coffee grinds before making the coffee, that way it will infuse while brewing.
- Once coffee is done brewing, place milk in a large cup and microwave until hot.
- In a tall glass combine the coffee, milk, and caramel syrup and stir well.
- Add sugar in small increments until desired sweetness is achieved, don't forget that the caramel will sweeten this beverage as well.
- Top with whipped cream and drizzle caramel.

If you need me to teach you how to make caramel syrup, that's the NEXT lesson

240 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 240   Newer›   Newest»
McFearless said...

Nice post C.

The VIX is really something, would any of us even be surprised to see a 14 on it now.

Watching that CC number around 3 today, should be a fun day.

Nic said...

CV
Don't you know people charge a lot of money for how to save 100k a year by not going to Starbucks hehe.
I miss the roaring naughties when we never cared ... I am being good and frugal but ... sigh ... it was fun

Nic said...

If you check the volumes on the SPY and don't count yesterday because markets were closed. Lowest volume day was Jan 11th, the high before the Feb low. Second lowest vol day was yesterday ...

mcHAPPY said...

I don't drink coffee/expresso/latte but that there might make me start.

Lara at forexinfo.us has scrapped her main wave count and gone with her alternate wave count which is bullish short term. If the count is correct and we are starting up on a 5th of Wave 1 that might lend credence to a correction in equities, followed by a correction in DXY leading to another push higher in equities (S&P 1220-ish anyone?), and finally leading us in to a 3rd of a 3rd for DXY leading to a little panic attack among the bagholding Johnny's.

Those are my conspiracy theories for the day.

CV said...

@McF

One thing I didn't mention (that I should have)

ALL OF THE BOXES occurred around "Earnings Season" periods...

CV's conjecture?

We WILL stretch out to around a 51-55 day scale on the present box... However, I wouldn't be surprised to see some action similar to the September 15th - October 15th period of last year... WHEREBY, we "correct" here now (but only 2-3% (or visit the TRENDLINE SUPPORT from 1044)... Then, we do a "moonshot" to wherever the top level of the indices are in that 55 day box...

If yo look at the SPX a different way... I said this yesterday... It has made a MEGAPHONE pattern since "karens top"...

So the UPPER LINES of that megaphone have to be respected...

CV said...

@Nic

CV is going for "karma" here (dispensing FREE MONEY SAVING ADVICE)...

My version of a "KARMA-el MACCHIATO"

mcHAPPY said...

She has pegged 84.22 as the end of wave 1.

Nic said...

Thanks McH ...
I am always curious about the wavers

mcHAPPY said...

The action in the futures today and oil being down over 1% also looking promising for above scenario. Unfortunately given the way things have gone lately, we could finish up 15 on the S&P and $3 on oil despite all the early morning rumblings.

mcHAPPY said...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-futures-fall-ahead-of-inventory-data-2010-04-07?dist=beforebell

Now when oil rises after report it will be 'unexpected'.

Nic said...

The blame game. Greenspan: Bubble was not created by Central Bank -
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/greenspan-bubble-was-not-created-by-central-bank-2010-04-07

CV said...

First they pay him the big bucks to cause a huge mess...

Then he collects BIGGER BUCKS (in fees) to explain how the mess was not his fault!

Nic said...

Those Greeks need to stop buying gold ...

CV said...

How much does anyone here want to bet we go to 1183, then bounce back to 1190?

CV said...

@Nic

They'll NEED the gold for when they have to start re-issuing the drachma :-)

Or, I suppose they could make tungsten drachmas

Nic said...

I will take the other side of your bet CV
I dont think we see 90 today

CV said...

Re: GREECE

Come on people... Think ahead... Can't you all "see it"... TBPB (the richest .001% of the world) WANT Greece to go up in flames...

Then they can come in and all buy themselves CHEAP fancy islands to go flee to after they've looted all the Treasuries of the G-7 nations...

Nic said...

Payback for Onassis marrying America's queen

Mannwich said...

Disaster capitalism, cv.

karen said...

morning, all! did anyone follow my many links last night? I was supposed to be doing my taxes but.. stressing over the markets was the lesser pain, i guess.

CV said...

The 1190 would only be a re-test (retrace)

Nic said...

USD Greek bonds have no bid

Mannwich said...

SKF yet another new 52-week low. Going to maybe LESS than zero? ;-)

Mannwich said...

FAZZY down AGAIN. In lieu of pumping a dot.com bubble, I think the next catastrophic bubble to pop will be the financial stocks, but not until they're pumped into oblivion.

CV said...

@Mannwich

Disaster Capitalism...

You voted for it - You got it!

CV said...

@Nic (939)

450 here we come!

AmenRa said...

Looking like the 10yr auction may have a high yield of 4% or better if this keeps up.

Mannwich said...

@cv: How did I vote for that? Disaster Capitalism wasn't invented by the O man. It was concocted by Friedman and his crew at the University of Chicago.

CV said...

Rahm Emmanuel

"Never let a good disaster go to waste"

Better yet... If one only exists ON THE MARGIN, create one to call your own...

Such as:

- appointing Tim Geithner as your TS
- Larry Summers to lead your economic team
- Re-confirm Ben Bernanke
- Shovel piles of money to Wall St. to bail them out AT PAR
- change accounting rules to HIDE THE REST
- spend 3 trillion in your first year


Stuff like that...

Mannwich said...

@cv: True but this crap has been going on for at least a decade or more now.

CV said...

WORSE...

Use your influence with the mainstream media to fuel the notion that ALL OF THE ABOVE is, in fact, a recovery...

Go back to buying stocks people, nothing to see over here...

CV said...

@Manny (9:52)

Well, do you really think it's a good idea for the last fireman on the scene to come in and start pouring gasoline on an already burning building?

Hey, but NOTHING is his fault... We've already established that... In abundance...

Nic said...

LB must be very busy hedging ...

Mannwich said...

No cv. It's obvious that many of us O voters aren't happy with the man so far, but how would McCain and that nitwit Palin have been any different or better?

Mannwich said...

But for you it's obvious that your jabs at him are personal in nature. Mine are not.

AmenRa said...

Isn't it the goal of the UST to scare Johnny into Tsys during auction days? Doesn't seem to be working...so far.

mcHAPPY said...

@mannwich

Exactly. O has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt the lobbyists and corporate America governs the USA, not Republicans or Democrats and certainly not elected representatives of the sheeple. Of course we all knew it, however those less cynical (like myself a year ago) still held out for the possibility of hope and change. Hasn't worked out too well for anyone - except the lobbyists and corporate America, of course.

Nic said...

The Rahm Emmanuel stuff is more like Shock Doctrine as defined by Naomi Klein ...
http://www.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine

Nic said...

Yeah and Korea should be buying too Amen-Ra!

Mannwich said...

Exactly Nic. Shock Doctrine started with the Chicago Boys with their little experiment in Latin America, namely Chile.

Mannwich said...

Voting in national elections is an utter waste of time in this country.

I-Man said...

Great post CV, will take some time to look into your charts more closely, but wanted to rattle off whats on my dome.

Gold is interesting to I and I... the only the reason I want to get long is the fact that I just cant short it here. Hows that for a morning riddle?

SPX, a fucking joke. If we dont correct back to 1150 or so before making a run into the 12s then its going to be a scary back half on the mountain.

DXY is interesting to I and I as well. "Max pain" could be a thrust up to Lara's 84, which would shock the hell out of the dollar bears looking to pounce at 82, and then complete the first wave. I like this call because alot of dollar bulls are beginning to doubt that it can go higher now.

karen said...

CV, great post, btw.. $spx chart is very eye-catching, too!

karen said...

I-Man.. I am with you on gold.. If the banks don't have to pay the piper, I'm going 75% back into to gold and commodities.

CV said...

@Manny

My 'jabs' aren't as PERSONAL as they may sound...

What I've learned is this... There's simply NO WAY to make people understand the COLOSSAL ERROR they made in getting behind this guy...

It's DIFFICULT because one has to SEE THOUGH the mantle of the GREAT degree of personal charm and magnetism he exudes...

It's downright 'cult-ish'

What's worse... Even if one endeavors to attack him on SUBSTANTIVE matters, people resist... Ask yourself WHY? I'll try to answer that...

- Before the election, nobody REALLY knew ANYTHING about him (they basically went on blind faith)... I'll nominate a few things: his citizenship, his "missing years", his ACTUAL scholarship, FUNDING of his progression, his RELIGIOUS ideas, his "bottom line" POLITICAL standpoint...

- Everytime he was attacked on ANY of these concerns (which is, in my mind, a "correct" thing to do when it comes to voting for a leader), the media (which adored him from Day 1), would quickly MARGINALIZE those concerns as cries from "extremists"... They were called "neo-nazis", "teabaggers", and what have you...

- Most of those "concerned individuals" ended up having to hold their tongue (or AT LEAST give the situation TIME for their concerns to be proved FALSE)

- After more than a year and a half... My conclusion is more to the side that the WORST of their fears are in the process of becoming TRUE...

So now the rhetoric has SHIFTED... People like yourself... "The CHARMED MASSES", have seen that you have been DUPED... What's your defense? Here it is... "Oh well, McCain or that nut job Palin wouldn't have been any better"...

Manny, CV IS NOT, I REPEAT, IS NOT making that argument... Instead, my argument IS, AND ALWAYS WILL BE that Obama was never cut out for the job in the first place...

My argument is about OBAMA incompetence...
I've made no arguments about GOP (McCain or Palin) heretofore...

I voted for NEITHER...

Lastly... If you want to get into the subject of IFS or BUTS... My suggestion, to the American People, is that if they want a candidate that will likely give this country a chance for long term success... then they endeavor to look a little further... And not just attach themselves to the first "glittery" one they see...

All Americans saw in 2008 was the fact that they HATED Bush... All democrats saw was the fact that if they latched on to Obama's "popularity", they could ride those coattails to some House & Senate seats as well... Hilary wouldn't have provided that "wheelsucking" type of effect (to use a bicycle term)...

So if you want to call my opinions on the man PERSONAL, then fine... I consider it PERSONAL when someone is f***ing up my country...

karen said...

I doubt anyone watched the Greenhill & Co presentation I posted yesterday, but here is a second one to piggy back it.

Silicon Valley Gears Up for Acquisitions

Mannwich said...

@cv: But did you take it AS personally when Bush was fucking up our country? I HIGHLY doubt it. Let's move on. Nobody at your blog is a political kool aide drinker, so I don't know even know why we get into these topics. I just think you can't resist because you hate the man as much as the libs hated Bush. It's two sides of the same coin and really what THEY want us to do. I'm not biting anymore and likely not voting either.

Nic said...

The vix is now lower than before the credit crisis, isn't that crazy

I-Man said...

Dammit blogger...

Sorry if a shitload of USO related posts materialize out of cyberspace.

Nic said...

I think we all hate politicians here. Regulatory capture, shock doctrine and lies.
WE have to invade Iraq NOW because of the WMD, We have to pass TARP NOW to buy the toxic assets ...

It's easy to dismiss them as incompetent or unfit but they sure manage to pull fast ones on us.

Johnny said...

Nic, it is all good. Brian tells me this latest cylinder or cycle or whatever he calls it will continue for years. It is a new bull market!Party on. Oh yeah, speaking of parties, I can't wait for Brian's July 4th BBQ this year. That guy has the best steaks. I don't know what I'd do without Brian. Did anyone see American Idol last night?

McFearless said...

test!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

McFearless said...

Blogger is a POS

CV said...

@Manny

I'm fine 'dropping' the argument with you here, but I'll end with TWO points:

1. I'm going to continue, in the future, to make casual references to "the CEO" (and his responsibility in all of this)... After all, it's his VISION that sets policy, and he is behind all or most of the APPOINTMENTS to positions that execute policy, as well as the SHAPING of public opinion that follows... How can I, as the author of a BLOG that deals with CAPITAL MARKETS, ignore that fact... Just as if this were a "football" blog, and we were discussing the Donovan McNabb to the Washington Redskins deal, how do I discuss the impact (in an intelligent way), with out references to Dan Snyder, or Shanahan, or George Allen even? If I were a "commentator" on a blog, I could comment on whatever struck my fancy... As a HOST, I have to think of the BIG PICTURE... Capital Markets "price in" the BIG PICTURE in the long run, and politics is a big part of that...

2. As far as Bush is concerned... Look, you've read my comments on 3-4 blogs by now, and should remember that I've placed blame from Carter, to Reagan, to Clinton, to Bush, and now to #44 on various things...

It's not really a situation of "AS" (which I take it to mean "degree)... But perhaps it is...

If you want a "paper napkin" opinion... When it comes down to QUANTIFICATION, that's something that's purely "subjective"... I'll give you an example...

BUSH
What was the main error of Bush? Getting us into an unpopular war? or something else? What was the pricetag of that war (both in terms of dollars, and human lives)? Did the end justify the means? Were there, in fact, any "redemptions" (i.e. Would it be "better" right now if Saddam Hussein were still alive today and doing his Stalin job within his country - what's better? that Shias & Sunnis kill Kurds? Americans exchange a few lives with either? or that the Shias & Sunnis just kill themselves along with other extermists?)

OBAMA
Despite his pre-election rhetoric (as far as Iraq & Afghanistan is concerned), nothing has changed... So are we BETTER OFF than we were (or do we just have a "prettier face" in the White House)... Hey, as long as when I turn on Entertainment TV at night and don't see Sean Penn mouthing off about the President, my evening is enjoyable, right?...

What's the ULTIMATE PRICETAG of the errors that Obama is making right now... Again, hard to quantify, but as I read these blogs EVERY SINGLE DAY, the consensus is that it'll eventually strip away ALL GDP, makes us SLAVES to the government, disincentivize an entire nation of people, bankrupt us, and probably eventually lead us to war in a way that will cost MILLIONS of lives (instead of a few thousand)...

But those are only things to consider if you ever use QUANTIFICATION as a expression of VALUE... Otherwise, you're left to consider whether Brett Favre or Tavaris Jackson can lead your team to the Super Bowl...

Hey, they're BOTH QB's right?

McFearless said...

I don't blame Obama for this mess nor do I blame Bush or any other president for that matter. It was just social mood (herding) and like all politicians they act on the old stale trend, not the one that is taking over. Seems clear to me the govt is still doing this, spending like mad while all the little people are doing everything they can to cut back or pay down debts.

Meanwhile, 2010 should be the year that the complete lack of control by the Fed is revealed.

Nic said...

aaargh blogger ate my post

I-Man said...

Did everyone run away? Or is it just me???

McFearless said...

Also, Karen linked up to this site the other day:

bubbleinfo.com

there is a lot of good stuff on that site, a lot of it is very local to CA though.

One thing I keep thinking about is the govt getting involved in student loans, that's got trouble all over it and what, now college costs can just rise forever but since you can always get the "money" you need from the govt no big deal?

just getting an undergrad degree will cost what eventually?

karen said...

You all gotta watch JCG.. it is being twittered to buy the breakout of cup and handle.. but price is dropping and it could break down.. it is the retail sector that got pumped to the moon.. as per the bespoke link i posted yesterday..

wonder if any of my posts will miraculously appear now that blogspot is working..

I-Man said...

Blogger has the I in fits... I'll just have to do my job I guess.

Peace~

Leftback said...

LB left his glasses at home. It's tough to type from across the room. Don't expect much out of me today!

BTW, the mild steepener we are seeing is exactly what we called for in last night's Bond Report.

We are short small caps.

Is it ALLOWED to go down?

Leftback said...

Trying to post.. without success.

Nic said...

As we speak PPT members are being woken by frantic pages and urged to hurry to the office early today ...

McFearless said...

guys I'm having the same issues, for a minute it looked like I had all the posts, now there are posts in between the ones I put up.

it is free

AmenRa said...

The algos hit their low target of -.5%. The short squeeze is about to begin...

karen said...

A MUST read at http://alephblog.com/

But, how many are truly invested for total disaster? And which total disaster?

Depression. Buy long Treasury bonds, sell gold.
High inflation. Buy TIPS, foreign bonds, and commodities. Sell long bonds.
Hyperinflation. Buy Gold and Silver. Sell bonds short, if it is still legal. Look for alternatives for practical currency.
Civil unrest? Choose your home with care. There is nothing to buy or sell here. Survivalism would work for short periods, but almost all long-term solutions rely on a stable civil government.
My estimate is that few are invested for a crisis. That does not mean that a crisis is coming, but that if a crisis comes, since most are not prepared, the selloff would be hard.

-=-==-=-=-=-=-=–=-==–==–=-=-==–==-=-=-

Moving to the short run, there are many who say that the current rally is tapped out, and will fail soon. That may be, but there is a lot of liquidity generated by the Fed’s low short rate policy, and many in the short run will borrow short to fund a long term asset, like a stock, which has a higher yield. Eventually that will fail, but in the short run it is temporarily self-reinforcing.

My view: favor the momentum in the short run, but realize that most of this rally is anticipating profit margins in the economy that have never been obtained in the past. Trim exposure, or be ready to do so. Remember, bond yields are proving to be greater competition day by day.

McFearless said...

"it is the retail sector that got pumped to the moon"

I think this could be a key observation. Hell, look at M!

it seems the one thing that is gaining a lot traction is that old idea of "never count out the US consumer" which is probably a statement that is beyond dumb at this point. Easy to say now but it's almost as if this had to happen in order for us to set up for another huge fall, get everyone on board again with that idea that the American consumer can just consume forever with credit, Bernanke is obviously trying to make this happen.

CV said...

@McF

"it is free"

FOR NOW it is... I'm half convinced that they'll figure out a way to tax a free system like this in the near future... Perhaps to pay the salary of a "free blogger service czar" or something...

Mannwich said...

Several comments eaten alive by the blogger monster. Argh.

Mannwich said...

hello? Blogger? Did I piss you off? Big brother?

CV said...

@karen (11:12)

I read that link yesterday... GOOD LINK...

I mostly agree with this paragraph...

"My estimate is that few are invested for a crisis. That does not mean that a crisis is coming, but that if a crisis comes, since most are not prepared, the selloff would be hard"

McFearless said...

"and many in the short run will borrow short to fund a long term asset, like a stock, which has a higher yield."

What if I want to do this with Apple?

No wait, Citi?

anyone?

that argument would be easier to swallow if stocks that actually paid solid divs had participated in this rally like all the crap stocks did.

karen said...

LOL.. you gotta go back to catch all the posts.. i believe all mine are here..

karen said...

But, I do, LB, I do expect so much out of you.. !!

CV said...

@karen

That "bolded" part is something that CV has thought of A LOT this past year...

The further this P2 rally extends (and the further it "frustrates me" from a TRADING perspective), the more I think of OTHER benefits...

For example, despite my overall preparedness for CRISIS (in terms of food, energy, water, rations, etc.) in the event of a REAL crisis... I've discovered that even CV is not as prepared as I'd like to be...

This is like a TIME WINDOW (in my mind)... It's the TIME BETWEEN when Noah started hammering the first boards together for the Ark (and people looked at him and said "WTF"?), and when the rains actually came...

You can't build an ARK of that size in one day... But everyone can choose what they want to do...

There are ants & there are grasshoppers...

CV doesn't just waste time BLOGGING about what to do, he actually DOES these things...

Mannwich said...

Anyone following the Greek drama? Will this be Argentina melt-down all over again?

McFearless said...

check out the GS chart today

McFearless said...

Manny,

it's funny, Greece really looks like they are going to default and we are all wondering how soon the S&P goes UP to 1,200.

What could go wrong?

Leftback said...

Will this be Argentina melt-down all over again?

We called this too. Default was inevitable at 6% let alone 7%. The question is who is going to go down with the ship?

Feeling nervous over at Deutsche Bank and Soc Gen...?

Nic said...

Mannwich
El-Erian has a piece in the FT saying just that, published about 30mins ago.
"Veterans of past sovereign debt crises will not be particularly surprised by this turn of events. As illustrated by Mexico in 1995 and Korea in 1997, among many others, complicated sovereign rescue packages often have to be re-opened. In some cases, such as Russia in 1998 and Argentina in 2001, the packages never succeed in getting ahead of deteriorating debt dynamics."

karen said...

speaking of ARCS.. QQQQs need to end red today.. GS is making me ill.. well, if 180 is breached.. I'll know what to do..

Nic said...

Obviously Pimco are short a bunch of bad sovereigns ...

karen said...

how can dow theory work when they take the components out when they go bankrupt?

McFearless said...

i sent that question to Dow theory once....no response.


Faber wrote about the troubles at Deutsche bank about a year ago.....one thing people should pay attention to is if they are in trouble, then so could be a lot of etf's/etn's.

Mannwich said...

I can't imagine the Greek regular folk will be none to happy to sacrifice their way of life so that bankers and elite can keep up theirs just fine. I get the sense that it could be a long, hot summer over there.

Mannwich said...

I wish that I could also "sell" imaginary things to people that I don't actually own. That would be fun.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/latest-gold-fraud-bombshell-canadas-only-bullion-bank-gold-vault-practically-empty

Nic said...

Sell the loonie, Canada has no gold!!:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/latest-gold-fraud-bombshell-canadas-only-bullion-bank-gold-vault-practically-empty

I like ZH but sometimes I wonder.

Mannwich said...

@Nic: I just read this again and definitely thinks he engages in wild hyperbole, but don't you think there's some legitimacy in the recent claims that the commodities markets are highly manipulated and suspect?

Mannwich said...

ZH and KD (Deninger) are kind of in the same categories for me. Often too much wild hyperbole but one day they'll probably be right.

Nic said...

@Manny
I completely agree about manipulation in all the commodities markets.

Some of the articles lately though have been a bit suspect, speculation about notional outstanding swaps and stuff.

AmenRa said...

Manny

I believe at the CFTC hearings it was disclosed that the paper market is 100 times larger than physical supply.

Leftback said...

ZH is a mixed bag. The breaking news is great but a lot of it is Loony Toons. Geddit, Loonie...???

OK. I was in Argentina in 2001, so I know EXACTLY what kind of summer it is going to be in Athens. Barter economy as currency simply disappears from circulation. People paid in IOUs.

BTW, the human fallout in Argentina was considerable. People were living off trash heaps in 2002-2003. I love the country and the people, but South American inequality is hard to take.

AmenRa said...

and it begins anew: Commerzbank pulling Greek Repos

karen said...

I goofed earlier.. it was my link to the new NLY post in which XRT and it's 136% rise was discussed:

A quick compare and contrast session between now and the XRT’s highs of 3 years ago:
We have lost 7.8 million jobs since then (nonfarm payroll data)
The unemployment rate is now 9.7% versus 4.5%
Total unemployed workers are now 15.7 million versus 6.5 million
Real personal income less government transfers is lower by 6.5%, or $624 billion
These are pretty rich levels, regardless of whether this recovery proves to be incipient or illusory.

Mannwich said...

That's what I was thinking, lb. And the Greek people aren't nearly as passive as we Americans are.......

Going to be mighty interesting to see how this all plays out.

Leftback said...

When will people realize there is no kick save for Greece this time? This has deteriorated too quickly for a coherent solution to be assembled.

We are going to see a nice rally for BUCKY. This is not a good time to short gold or Treasuries.

McFearless said...

The real question though about Greece is:

who's next?

any country with a central bank has all the same issues, some just larger than others.

Leftback said...

I see HARRY is a fixture at ZH now...

Copper and crude are probably the losers among commodities if this thing blows. Gold and silver will take off, make sure not to be in the way.

Mannwich said...

@ben: I was thinking that as well. Extend & pretend coming to a close for Greece. Who's next in line to give up that delusion? And will others fall like dominoes?

Leftback said...

"who's next?"

Latvia. Portugal. They will keep coming - until we get to Spain.
By that time we will start seeing widespread muni defaults in the US.

McFearless said...

well, that's my expectation, when social mood says it's time it will all collapse. You can't beat deflation in a credit based system, catch phrases like extend and pretend will go away, or half of it will anyway, the extend half....

McFearless said...

How about the MISH posts on LA, out of money on May 5.

Happy Cinco de Mayo LA!

Leftback said...

Kyrgyzstani bond yields are probably high today as well. Riots in Thailand today. It's all going to go off this summer.

CV, when do you need that arugula picking?

I-Man said...

You're welcome to come work at Dread Farms this summer, LB...

Gotta bring your own loincloth though.

Leftback said...

BTW, next week is an entire week without significant US economic data other than CPI. So the risks are going to be to the upside. Which means, if we are going to have a correction, today and tomorrow would be a great time for it.

Greece and the Euro will bear watching.

Nic said...

Is the 10yr auction later than usual today? Perhaps they are now waiting for stocks to close or is it normally that late in the day?

CV said...

@LB

Arugula (in these parts) is about 40 days to harvest... I planted the seeds indoors in March and just put them outside last week...

They should be ready by the end of April and will continue to regenerate through most of May...

By then, THE OUTSIDE temperatures in this zone are too hot and the plants will bolt (same with spinach & lettuce)... I let a few bolt (to harvest the seeds), but then use the areas to put the tomatoes, squash, & cucumbers in the ground for the summer...

Come August, harvest the corn, tomatoes, cucumbers, watermelons, & squash, and go back to the lettuce & arugula...

CV said...

karen & I-Man, I'm sure, have wider windows for their arugula (because of the climate in their regions...

I-Man said...

C-

All my tomato seedlings got Late Blight... I'm bummed. Had to dump them all.

Had to start them all over. I started those on March 1st.

Leftback said...

Auction always at 1pm, Nic. Added to equity shorts.

karen said...

O.C. hotels cut room rates 10%
April 7th, 2010, 9:00 am by Jon Lansner
The local hotel business did not start the year off on the right foot. The lodging experts at PKF report that Orange County hotels in January saw room rates down 10% in a year (that’s $14.74 a night!) Meanwhile, those rate cuts kept 43% of the Orange County rooms empty — same as a the year earlier.
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/

Nic said...

oops. I changed my calendar accidentally to GMT

Nic said...

Thanks LB

I-Man said...

I germ'd spinach, arugula, romaine outside this year, planted them March 1st. They are all doing well.

So are my golden beats, carrots, onions, gar, and peas. All sown in ground on Mar 1st. (This is an early year for us, last year was a late year)

Putting beans in the ground after work today.

Peppers are hardening off now, spending their days outside, nights inside.

Celery in windows.

Planting seed potatoes outside this weekend.

Moved herbs (no, not those kind) into bigger pots, they are hardening off now also.

Getting ready to germ corn, cuc's, and watermelon inside this weekend also.

CV said...

@I-Man

I do all the tomato plants indoors until they're about 4 inches before I even THINK about transplanting them outside...

Around here, you can never be TOO careful... Even though the Almanac says LAST FROST will be mid-April, I've learned that it doesn't pay to put them outside until after MOTHERS DAY...

There ALWAYS seems to be one tricky overnight FROST that nobody expects (kinda like markets)...

After May though, the soil temperatures rise FAST... So healthy plants will grow VERY FAST... Tomatoes up the pazoo by July...

CV said...

Of course I ALWAYS save my comments before I click POST COMMENT... My last one, I didn't, it got eaten...

Maybe it'll show up later...

I-Man said...

C,

Just for clarification, tomato seedlings were inside... first experience with Late Blight...
Its a bitch. I think the humidity inside was too high... added another fan to the space.

I-Man said...

Holy shit that was a big SPY trade...

They are really going to torment shorts.

CV said...

@I-Man (12:22)

I'm on very close to the same schedule...

I was a little ahead of you on the POTATOES (only because this past week was PERFECT), and my seed potatoes were ready to do something... I already have about 3 inch stalks on what I planted...

Hilarious, I do them in 32 gallon trash cans and old tires...(not even the ground)...

karen said...

has to be a bad tick on the spy..

karen said...

had to be a bad tick on the spy..

CV said...

@I-Man

Adding a fan was probably a good idea...

It could have also been the soil you were using... If it was just leftover potting soil, it may have had something in there...

Since you don't need much of a cup just to germinate a plant, sometimes its best to use freshly packaged stuff...

It doesn't take much... Hell, you could probably do it TOTALLY HYDROPONIC in a pinch...

Leftback said...

CV and I-Man: You are garden PROS, like LB's Dad, born on a farm.

Beavis and Butthead said...

3-inch stalk, Karen, he said, 3-inch stalk...

Nic said...

Thanks Karen :)

Nic said...

Greece CDS at 415bp, now trading wider than Iceland for the first time since 2005, when market barely existed

CV said...

@LB

And to think it all started out with SQUARE FISH...

Nic said...

A lot of us grew up on fish fingers (or fishstix as you call them) ;)

karen said...

CV, this could have been one of your posts.. on the FCIC Hearing.

CV said...

@Nic

Fingers huh? How did you know that it was ACTUALLY FISH then?

Anyway, it all tastes like "chicken" right?

AmenRa said...

Gold trading above its weekly 3LB reversal price of 1146.80. I see the 10yr yield inching down a couple of basis points. If that's the best they could muster we'll be above 4% through the next auction.

CV said...

@karen

See? My "literary style" has started a new TREND!

if you call what I do a "literary style"...

Anyway, if your BLOG THREAD has Dirty Harry & Barney Fife in there, you're OK by me! :-)

DL said...

Happy tax freedom day (almost)

Friday is tax freedom day.


http://www.taxfoundation.org/taxfreedomday/

CV said...

@Amen

...above 4%

my "chicken" post (to Nic) applies here as well... As in "is anybody prepared for a game of *******"?

CV said...

@DL

They should just call it "OXYMORONIC DAY"

I-Man said...

CV

I use the Light Warrior seedling mix for my starts.

Saint Jamie said...

Come now, Karen...

There's no such thing as a bad tick, thats just how I roll.

CV said...

@I-Man

Are you sure you didn't mis-read the package?

Sounds like you bought "(B)LIGHT WORRIER" instead...

CV said...

accept NO substitutes!

I-Man said...

Man, you're on point today!

CV said...

@I-Man

As far as FOOD is concerned, I do OK...

Politics & Markets?... I just make up stuff as I go along...

DL said...

CV @ 10:58


“What's the ULTIMATE PRICETAG of the errors that Obama is making right now... Again, hard to quantify, but as I read these blogs EVERY SINGLE DAY, the consensus is that it'll eventually strip away ALL GDP, makes us SLAVES to the government, disincentivize an entire nation of people, bankrupt us, and probably eventually lead us to war in a way that will cost MILLIONS of lives (instead of a few thousand)”

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

Yeah, but if you set aside those little details, he’s not such a bad President.

I-Man said...

@ DL

And he's got a wicked jump shot!!!
What more could you ask for?

Leftback said...

Bid/Cover 3.72
Total Amount $21 B
Yield Awarded 3.900%

Piece of cake. Told you so.... the trade was to short earlier in the week!

I-Man said...

Let the tormenting of shorts begin anew...

Leftback said...

Look at those Treasuries rally, are we good or what?

AmenRa said...

10yr

awarded b2c
PD 40.57% 5.75
IDB 43.1% 3.03
DB 16.3% 2.06
total Bid to cover (b2c) 3.72

Mannwich said...

Wow, go on a short walk and TLT pops. Very nice.

karen said...

check out jcg.. the traders bot the breakout.. now i want to see if it's a trap.

I-Man said...

Is it just me, or are the corellations just all F'd up right now?

Leftback said...

or are the corellations just all F'd up

It's all GREEK today, I-Man.

CV said...

@DL @I-Man

Great! Then he has my vote for NBA Commissioner...

Let him run that league into the ground for all I care...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Happy lunch, fellow ants!

I see where tall Paul has somehow been convinced that VAT taxes would be a good thing for the US, and that cap and trade (sometimes otherwise referred to as taxes to use energy) is also a good thing.

I am thinking that Obama must be channeling Volcker on some frequency that only Dan Rather might know....

CV said...

@karen

I've been kind of fascinated by that "C" chart all day...

This morning when I was looking at the landscape (and seeing RED futures), I noticed the bank stocks didn't look all that bad...

So I was skeptical on how far we'd go down...

Earlier I "penned" 1183 on the down (and then back to 1190 for a rebound)...


Nic & I have a "bet" on it (above)...

karen said...

oh, brother. i just realized that the 10 min 2 day C and JCG chart are nearly indistinguishable! The AOT is alive and well!

AmenRa said...

Gold/Euro to the moon baby!

CV said...

@Bruce

Actually... I have come to the conclusion that I'm not "against" a VAT tax anymore...

I used to DESPISE the idea of it... But in recent years, CV has learned to curb "conspicuous consumption" habits...

VAT tax, therefore, in a way is a LUXURY TAX (that there are zero loopholes for)...

It's my way of getting back at Barry Ritholtz for buying his BOAT off the money he made on my "too early shorts in '09... LOL

CV said...

@Nic

1182.78 (on the lowside), and 1189.60 (on the highside), thus far...

Are you going to give CV the benefit of the doubt? Or are you going to "bust my jock" (like karen), and demand PRECISION?

AmenRa said...

CV

Using the close of 1189.44 the 0.00557 fibo down is 1182.81. The low for today was 1182.78. Go figure.

The 0.00557 fibo up is 1196.07 which is where we're probably headed now that the auction is over.

karen said...

CV, you are as good as gold here.. lol.

Leftback said...

So we got the 1190 bounce. Now what?

Today has elements of FTQ in the fixed income space.

AmenRa said...

CV

If you look at a 1-min chart there was a huge bullish harami when it crossed that level.

CV said...

@Amen

And yesterday... CV made "special mention" of 1196 (as it related, fibo wise, to other numbers)...

I'm going to go retrieve that post...

Leftback said...

VAT is what you do when you can't raise personal income tax or property tax any more, or sell government bonds. Rising rate environment. We will not see it, although cities and states will add to sales taxes.

karen said...

Look, stocks already have full recovery priced! Smart money sticking with bonds for the best risk free yields of the year.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

CV:

But I know you understand, as do I, that the problem is not that we are undertaxed. The taxpayer has all sorts of shiny new taxes this year and next, and the CEO's of bailed out banks are continuing to get raises.

It is getting to the Atlas Shrugged tipping point, I think. Even Hank Reardon decided he'd had enough...

What is the point? In Vietnam we supported one corrupt regime after another until we lost the war. Now we are fighting in Afghanistan with a president who threatens us with joining the Taliban...

sheeeesh...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Hey, Lefty! How is Gordo going to do in the election?

CV said...

@Bruce

"Now we are fighting in Afghanistan with a president who threatens us with joining the Taliban..."

It was Barry's call to deploy more troops there [Afghanistan]... Hell, for all we know, our own troops that he sent there will be joining the Taliban as well...

Leftback said...

Gold in a short squeeze, will be a good short when it peaks. Not going there until Greece "bailout" number 3? 4? 5?

Today is ALL JOHNNY. EUR:JPY carry is fairly negative for the second day. HFs are not playing here, and when they step in it may be on the short side, or they may be on the sidelines until we have a correction. They can't all be in the AUD and CAD trades.

McFearless said...

karen, 1:37

want to try and explain that to a few of my clients?

Leftback said...

Bruce

LEFTY believes that EL GORDO will be spanked. The British electorate will vote for "CHANGE". What they will get is more pro-City, pro-banker policy from the Tories.

Leftback said...

Karen,

A lot of smart money went into MBS and junk bonds last year and is now sitting in IG corporates and Treasuries.

CV said...

@Lefty

"What they will get is more pro-City, pro-banker policy from the Tories"

Well that ought to turn things right around! LOL

karen said...

Ben, look at KO.. looks like a few distribution days over the last 3 months.. it's a more decent hold that jcg, too!

Leftback said...

Quite.

The UK and the US are locked into the Japanese scenario in a big way.

Mannwich said...

I wonder when BR will realize this ain't the '70's redux?

Leftback said...

K,

Dividend stocks have been miserable compared with trash stocks. Stocks like MRK and BMY have become like bonds in the Dash for Trash.

McFearless said...

LB,

I think the smartest money bought junk and MBS last year, now they can swap it back for insured paper.

this would seem to have been a better trade than stocks.

Leftback said...

I wonder when BR will realize this ain't the '70's redux?

This ain't no disco.

CV said...

@LB (1:42)

See? That's what I fear about the 2010 elections...

Only "Congressional Elections"... Fine, just vote the GOP into a bunch of positions right? & split the Houses...

Then, when the "shitty policy" that was forced down our throats in 2009 all comes to roost in the real economy... BLAME IT ALL ON THEM...

By 2011 - 2012, they'll be "pining for the good ol days of 2009", when Barry was MAXING OUT the credit card (and getting his limit raised in the process)...

Leftback said...

Equities are an amusing casino, to be raided by the C-suite.

Bond (and currency) markets make the world go round.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I have mentioned many times over the months that I didn't think the Germans would co-sign for the Greeks. And it looks like they won't.

Now the Greeks are asking the Arabs for money? These are the people that in my lifetime in Turkey got tired of the way Greeks were treating Arabs in Cyprus and promply cut the island in two?

When is the BK coming? (The formal recognition of it, that is..) Burger time Lefty?....

McFearless said...

they just put a new J. Crew in the mall close to the house. I don't know much about the stock but I think their clothes are sort of cheap, they fall apart, but I do like the style most of the time.

karen, what do you think of GPS, I owned that for a bit last year when I was in stocks heavy, haven't looked at it in a long time though.

also, ARO in the retail space could be interesting, much more affordable for the masses compared to say Abercrombie.

McFearless said...

I have to admit, i didn't expect to see Macy's sporting a 22 handle in April 2010, that's for sure.

i saw the CEO interviewed a few months ago and was quite impressed with his comments and economic outlook/expectations.

CV said...

@Bruce

Arabs to Greeks: "Send us all your goddesses to our tents in tribute and we shall consider your request"

AmenRa said...

A step forward?
SEC May Make Asset-Backed Debt Sellers Retain Risk

McFearless said...

C, 1:49

I've started to think that maybe both parties will not be operating in their current form within the next 10 years. if the GOP cracks, dems are going to crack too, and we'll get some very radical splits that emerge out of that social mood.

CV said...

@ben

If you're looking in the "clothing retail" space...

Might I suggest: Glad, Hefty... Or if you prefer NATURAL to SYNTHETIC fibers... Go with BURLAP...

Leftback said...

"Burger time Lefty?...."

For both of us. I was on the same side of the bet, Brucey. At some point it becomes too expensive to restructure the debt and default arrives even as the bankers are still scurrying around trying to sell bonds at higher and higher rates. Even Prince ALL WALLY wouldn't touch this deal....???

Bruce in Tennessee said...

CV:

As a general comment, the last 12-18 months have been some of the most interesting days I've seen. The markets are only a hobby, but I've watched economic matters with interest for >30 years. Never have I seen such an abandonment of fiscal conservatism, and no matter what happens, I will be interested to see how she plays out.

I have stocked up on popcorn...

McFearless said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/taxes/article/109262/extraordinary-tax-deductions?mod=taxes-filing

#7 and #8 are probably the best, #5 might be close.

AmenRa said...

A step forward?
SEC May Make Asset-Backed Debt Sellers Retain Risk

AmenRa said...

A step forward?
SEC May Make Asset-Backed Debt Sellers Retain Risk

CV said...

another "non-copied" eaten post...

AmenRa said...

Sorry about the triple post. Damn blogger started acting up.

karen said...

GPS is a no no no.. ARO is a complete unknown to me. Never heard of it, truth be told.

JCG will survive.. copycat of really pricey stuff.. and their basics are well made.. the tees and cords, jeans, etc. Men's line is better than womens! and now they have babies and kids.. Their earnings are up on fallout from high end dept stores.. I do follow them..

McFearless said...

test?

DL said...

LB @ 1:42

Do we see a brief rally in GBP/USD after the election?

My guess is yes.

DL said...

CV,

Or they can sell some of their islands with a lease-back provision.

AmenRa said...

I-Man

Checking out your spikes on the SPY at 10:02, 11:38, 11:41 and 12:27. Yikes.

«Oldest ‹Older   1 – 200 of 240   Newer› Newest»

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.