Morning Audibles 4.6.10 - Butler Didn't Do It & Other "UnShining Moments"

I don't really know where to start this morning... The markets? MEH... I'm about damn sick of them by now... Of course, that's what we'll mostly talk about today, but this is ROMEAMERICA dammit! And therefore we know that "work" and things like that are only to get us from holiday weekends, through to 'One Shining Moment'/Opening Day Mondays, and onto Masters Thursday. I suppose CV will have to be the entertainment in the intermission (note: this is the part of the "Gladiator Games" where they slaughter all the animals that were killed in the first act, cook it up and feed it to the Romans - In case you were wondering).


OK - Here's where we start (In our anthology of UN-SHINING MOMENTS)


So Obama tosses out the first pitch at the Washington Nationals game. This was the 2nd time he's thrown out a first pitch (1st at last years ALL STAR GAME - which he only attended because he thought he'd been voted into the lineup). First of all... Dude, you can't throw... If he were pitching a real game, the count on the batter would be 2 balls and no strikes right now. By next year, he'll have "walked" the guy (I wonder if the batter is named Jamie or Lloyd)... What's the deal with his toeing the rubber? Dude! You're not holding anyone on first base, just throw the effin' thing over the plate and get off the field... 2nd? This is a WASHINGTON NATIONALS home opener. What's the deal with the CHICAGO WHITE SOX hat? We know you're from 60606, but come on... Honor your host for God's sake! This isn't "Crips & Bloods" dude (I know the Nationals have "Blood" colors - but you don't have to silently acknowledge the CRIPS in the process)


CRIPS love "Sox" hats
 
You're doing it WRONG!
You're STILL doing it wrong!

Look, cut the crap and get down to basics. This is how you do it. You first honor your host (in what you wear), you walk out to the mound, waste no time, THROW A STRIKE down the middle... Obama said afterwards that he had been throwing so many strikes in practice and that on the moment ...the ball slipped out of his hand. WTF? No, seriously... WTFF?




Sort of like this... 


Stop trying to please the people like this who voted you into office!


Or this guy (notice baseball hat @:09), who shares your TEAM affiliation...


And whatever you do, don't break out into song (like he did once).




If you keep going the way you are going, what was once a great thing (like the 2010 NCAA Basketball Tournament), is going to end up as a crappy music video that you couldn't even "lip synch" properly...






CV is pining for "simpler" days (like this - which is "Hinkle Hall" - the site of the Indiana State Championship game in the movie "HOOSIERS" where tiny Hickory High knocks off powerhouse South Bend - "Hinkle Hall" is actually where BUTLER plays its home games on campus - Truth is stranger than fiction).

237 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 237   Newer›   Newest»
mcHAPPY said...

A bear can only dream but it would be a great time to sneak in a top with all the distractions going on in the world: UK election, EUR:USD tanking, NCAA final, Masters/TIGER, DOW pushing towards 11K, S&P 1200, oil pushing towards 90/100. Luckily I won't be distracted from some shorting opportunities - despite CV's attempt with today's morning audible :P

CV said...

@McHappy

All I can say is this...

Technically (& Fundamentally), this market is so overbought it isn't funny...

But until it swallows that bottle of Kaopectate (which it needs to do), it'll be stuck here...

Therefore, your humble "host" has taken on the role of the COURT JESTER in the process...

In this UNSHINING MOMEMT... Tell me how "tradeable" the LATEST from:

- Rosie
- Andy Xie
- anything from Greek PM's
- or Bernanke, or Trichet,

or ANYBODY is... The computer algos only seem to hear this...

"0111111111001001010101010101010101010110101010
010101101010101106660101011010101101010110100110101101010101010110101011010101011010101010101"

(Hey! how did that 666 get in there?)

mcHAPPY said...

No need to preach to the choir, CV. Believe me, I hear you.

Bucky is making a nice charge today. It will be interesting to see if wave 1 continues or if we are in wave 2. Lara has been extremely insightful for me the last couple of months.

CV said...

@McHappy

You read my mind...

Bucky is the #1 thing I'm watching right now (along with 10y & 30y)...

CV said...

I'd like to see 1181.79 get taken out to the downside in the first 5 minutes...

If not, then it'll just be another boring TRADING RANGE DAY

CV said...

GREAT [snark]

we bounced and will now consolidate my 1183 number from YESTERDAY...

Now I can go back to my bowl of "Cheerios"

Anonymous said...

DXY, and oil both green today.

Anonymous said...

What impact climate control legislation have on oil?. I am long Suncor, biggest oil sands producer and it's range bound.

CV said...

Euro below 61.8% fibo support from bounce last week...

1.29 here we come...

CV said...

@anon (9:43)

Ask Lloyd & Jamie...

No doubt THEY will be the ones to actually WRITE the law...

Anonymous said...

@CV, re oil.

Ask Papa Fed. It's their policy of lending Lloyd and Jamie thats causing oil to go up wihout real demand.

FOMC minutes today. Oil inventories Wed.

Anonymous said...

@CV, Lloyd and Jamie should thank Papa Fed for lending money at zirp and providing them dough.

Fomc minutes released today, oil inventories Wed.

McFearless said...

lol, that Carl Lewis pitch...what was that?

CV said...

@anon

You don't SERIOUSLY think that the Fed is higher in the "pecking order" than Lloyd & Jamie do you?

Thank You????

It's more like... "I gotta gun to yo head SUCKA - Gimme yo money or I'll blow yo sorry @ss Princeton brains all over the street"

McFearless said...

Wow, taking a look at Mish's year end performance today, look at the assets he collected after 2008 in the absolute return fund:
(Millions)

2009 63.7
2008 19.4
2007 5.2
2006 4.8
2005* 3.8


At 1% wrap that's an increase in mgmt fees of $443,000 just on that fund.

Pretty impressive for a small shop that hasn't been around very long.

I-Man said...

Good to see performance chasing is alive and well...

Bodes well for those who can think two steps ahead.

CV said...

Musings from Art Cashin...

Yes, it is THAT DULL to watch this tape...

McFearless said...

I-man,

same thing I thought as well, of course, it is the absolute return fund, which has never been down before, but still, retail will never learn, and they extrapolate every trend into the future forever:

if he was right in the past he will be right in the future.

Nic said...

Morning sports fans, thought you would be all sleeping in after last nights thriller.

Breakfast with Rosie:
https://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0B7not0MAZdrXYjk4ZTRiMWEtNDc0Yi00NDM1LTkxOWUtMTU3ZTAzNTU0MGVm&hl=en

Nic said...

“It brings to mind Charles Schulz’s ‘Peanuts’ cartoon: Charlie Brown, Lucy and the football. Time and time again, Lucy convinces Charlie Brown she’ll hold the ball for him to kick only to yank it away at the last second. Every time, he lands flat on his back, pondering his gullibility.”
William Pesek

I-Man said...

Morning Nic,

I see you were a busy gal last night. Great work on the TT post (Turnaround Tuesday)...

Sorry about the AUDCAD, I thought it was a decent trade, fwiw. I think they really just made a fumble on that rate decision.

Mannwich said...

@Nic: St. Paul's own Charles Schultz......

CV said...

@Nic (10:27)

Almost on A DAILY BASIS do I consider using that cartoon as the basis for the thread topic...

So far though (as of this point)... Charlie Brown is running full speed at the football thinking he's going to kick it into the stratosphere...

So since the FABLE hasn't yet reached its climactic moment... I hold it in reserve...

CV said...

CV has detected a NEW CHART PATTERN

It's called the "revolving door" pattern...

Stocks never really go down... They enter a revolving door, do a 360 intraday churn (making it "look" like they're going to go down, but then hang on until they complete the 360 and keep going...

karen said...

I just want to know where the $$$ is coming from.. where the margin is coming from... an ever-rising market is not self-sustaining. (and good morning all.. have just been too speechless to comment!)

Mannwich said...

I thought the job market was supposedly "improving"? This would suggest otherwise.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/04/bls-low-labor-turnover-fewer-job.html

karen said...

Business software company CA Inc. said Tuesday that it's cutting 1,000 jobs -- or about 8 percent of its work force -- and consolidating offices as part of a restructuring plan to reduce costs and become more efficient.

The company also steered earnings expectations to the lower end of its previous guidance for the year. Its shares tumbled more than 5 percent.

"I recognize that the actions we're taking are difficult. But in the end, they will make CA stronger and more competitive," CEO Bill McCracken said in a memo to employees Tuesday.

The job cuts will occur mainly in North America and mostly be completed by the end of September, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Business-software-maker-CA-to-apf-254292787.html?x=0

Nic said...

CV
I will not mention Charlie Brown again. It will have its day

CV said...

@karen (10:45)

Since February, it's just been a game of 3 card Monte...

All they do is trade C & BAC back and forth (to give the illusion of real volume)...

Every once in awhile, a sucker walks in off the street and they take his money... Fortunately, that happens REGULARLY on the first 2-3 days of the month...

It's as if they're afraid that if they don't hit this 61.8% retrace (around 1220-1230) on this go around, it'll never recover in time to do it on the next go around...

Nic said...

Mail for you I-Man

Leftback said...

TWO thrillers last night. Duke v Butler was a classic, and then there was LB's soccer team winning their semi-final 8-7, leaving LB a drained and exhausted "young" player at the end. Of course we went down the pub.

Looks like the RBA are really serious about pricking the housing bubble Down Under. Surprised me.

Stopped out of my long bond short this morning. All good here.

karen said...

just want to point out that the $xad had not breached 92.50.. so there are a series of lower highs in place.

94.06 (nov)
93.24 (jan)
92.50 (mar)
92.46 (today)

Leftback said...

Any good ideas why gold is up today? More Greece concerns?

[If anyone says, "because people are buying it" - a GOLD STAR...]

Mannwich said...

CAT at 52-week high. Must be due to all that new construction going on. [snark off]

Mannwich said...

CAT up 102% in one year. WTF?

Nic said...

LB Greece is a shiteshow today, Greek bond yields at 7.1% and a good story that they are rejecting the IMF involvement (like they have a choice) because they might have to actually apply some austerity. Default is certain, contagion maybe

CV said...

@Manny

"CAT up 102% in one year. WTF?"

Here's how it works... MACYS is up about 350%... So some analyst with a white shirt and tie is looking at their SAME STORE SALES and seeing that they're holding up...

So logically, someone is buying Caterpillar bulldozers and razing all the empty Macys stores to the ground (along with Circuit City & others)...

Isn't ECONOMICS GREAT when it works for you!?

Mannwich said...

@cv: Yeah, it's just swell. How can anyone justify M being up 350% in this environment? I'm just utterly dumbfounded.

CV said...

There are NO REAL ECONOMICS anywhere in the world...

So the only game to play is to take what USED TO BE commerce and industry and simply trade "magical values" of what someone says (or thinks up) on a DAILY BASIS...

It's like playing a game of MONOPOLY IN YOUR HEAD with a group of people (without dice, without property deed cards, chance, community chest, dogs, battleships, thimbles, wheelbarrows, or hats...

CV: "Hey Manny"... I'll give to $60 bucks for Baltic... DEAL?

Manny: "I don't own Baltic"

CV: "I don't care... Let's pretend you do"

Manny: "OK then... But the price is $72 bucks"

CV: "Make it an even $75 and you got yourself a DEAL"

Johnny: "Wait a minute... I'll buy it for $80"

karen said...

COT Data Indicates Strong Buying Beneath Gold

Leftback said...

SOLD to JOHNNY.

Nic, Greek default is certain. Agreed. The Argentina of Europe.

The big question is: what about SPAIN ?
Banco Santander = Kredit Anstalt? Watch this space.

Leftback said...

Thanks, Karen. You're looking lovely, by the way... no shoes?

karen said...

Forget the market. Today's gossip is FANTASTIC!

Clooney single, again.. Bullock Proceeding with Divorce, JJ gets nothing..Annie Leibovitz Sued by Money Arrangers among the highlights.

Anonymous said...

CAD/USD parity!. I wrote on this blog several month ago. Some Canadians are happy - cross border shopping.

I-Man said...

How bout that "What if Women Ran Wall St" article, K?

You dig that?

CV said...

@karen

Clooney wasn't married was he?

Anonymous said...

Look at gold in Euro. Someone selling Euro to buy gold.

I-Man said...

Excerpt:

"For better or worse, the women traders I spoke with tended to classify themselves as more conservative than their male counterparts. A self-described math nerd, Nancy Davis was head of Goldman Sachs’ proprietary derivatives-trading desk for five years. “I think generally, women are more likely to admit that they’re wrong, faster. I think there’s less ego for whatever reason with women traders, the ones I know at least,” she says. She made a habit of keeping her boss in the loop on every trade—something she calls having “buy-in.” “If there’s a position going sour on me, I’m not going to sit and say, ‘I know what’s best.’ It would make me want to raise my hand and get advice from other people. It’s like asking for directions when driving.”

I had to chuckle when I read this... so damn true.

CV said...

@karen

That's why my THREAD TOPICS will focus on "other things" in lieu of any tradable market data...

Mannwich said...

Going green again! We'll be at S&P 1,500 in no time.

CV said...

I'm SO PRAYING for a "streaker" to show up at the Masters or something...

Otherwise, Thursday may be shot!

CV said...

DAILY RSI now 77.4% (on SPX)

karen said...

btw, i did not get my abandoned baby on C.. no surprise, there.. hey, CV, during the oscar awards, i noted to my friend as the camera stopped on George and GF, that's over! it was so obvious from this body language. lol.

CV said...

Even the WEEKLY RSI is bumping on 70...

Haven't seen that since '07

karen said...

cursing the $xad.. broke up!

CV said...

@karen

I remember that...

George didn't look too happy there all night...

McFearless said...

Manny,

don't bring up CAT, I left a lot on the table there. Last year at TBP I documented I was buying in the 20's, I started selling at 40 and was all out by 43.50, thought I was so smart......

CV said...

@karen

He needs to spend a week with us here at SURVIVOR CAPITAL...

That would cheer him up for sure! :-)

Mannwich said...

Maybe Clooney and Sandra can get together? ;-)

McFearless said...

I saw some people discussing ECRI here a few weeks back, they have a big post over at BR's with all the update stuff yesterday.

Also,.... is Peter Boockvar serious or was he just doing more than a dozen April fools posts?

Mannwich said...

Sorry ben. I can relate. I left A LOT on the table with quite a few stocks in the past year or so. I don't even like to think about it.

Mannwich said...

I think he's dead serious, ben.

Nic said...

Its embarrassing about the cross border shopping and cheap homes for Canadians in FL & AZ. It is all over the TV news like that is all that is important. It is not good news for Canadian exporters.

CV said...

OK... here's CV's latest "toss it out there" number...

1222 (SPX)

I realize that's around a zone that many have talking about recently:

- 61.8% retrace back to the '07 highs
- 200 day MA

and crap like that...

But I figured out some different reasons as well...

.144 retrace BACKWARDS from that brings you back to 1046 (Feb low)...

50% retrace back to 666 puts you around the 956 level from last summer...

It's basically close to the "Lehman collapse" level...

And hell, what else can I say, IT'S JUST A DAMN FINE NUMBER (and pretty close to CV's call, last December, for the 2010 high on Andy's old blog)...

Come on... One good rip roaring UP day this week (2.5%) and we're there and can move on with our lives!

Nic said...

CAD wont stop going up til Oil stops

CV said...

@Nic

The best place in the world to own land is RIGHT ON the US - Canada border...

You can just build a secret tunnel under your house and smuggle whatever (or whomever) you want to and fro...

mcHAPPY said...

@Nic

Sadly Canadians, who so often look down their nose at all things USA (rightly or wrongly is debatable), are mirror images of the US at the peak of the property bubble in 2005/2006. No wonder the mainstream media here is only concerned about shopping and property. Personal debt levels actually exceed those of US at the peak. Canada has a long way to fall if deflationary forces dig in.

Leftback said...

Canada's economy doesn't work at parity. Every time it happens, lots of Canadians cheer and then the Government starts buying BUCKY.

Crude surely hurts the US economy at $90. $100 would be a super-spike in this environment and bring on the double-dip. It's all hot money trading anyway, there is a boatload of supply and storage.

Nic said...

LB ... Spain is the big problem no one is talking about. Market thinks Spain is OK cos they started in a better place in terms of debt levels and because Spanish banks buy bonos/bonds so Greek bond yields are 5x Spanish ones but situation in Spain is MUCH worse. Spain at least are not liars and cheaters but they are basing all there projections on very optimistic growth forecasts and if that doesn't happen then ... shiteshow.
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-spain-is-no-greece-and-cant-be-bailed-out-by-the-eu-or-imf-2010-3#-1

Nic said...

McHappy, they might be looking down their noses but its usually with envy, trust me.

karen said...

Nic, agree completely on CAD and crude.. been that way for ever.. the difficulty is determining who's drafting.

Nic said...

True blue Karen

Nic said...

If you are thinking about shorting some bonos LB:
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LDE6350X2.htm

karen said...

wtf, wfc new high today.

mcHAPPY said...

@Nic

I would disagree about the envy. But there is no doubt a strong dollar - despite the cheerleading - is bad for Canada and the loonie is directly related to oil and metals.

Leftback said...

This market is going down. Just take a look at carry today:

EUR-USD 1.3370 -0.0114 -0.85%
EUR-JPY 125.4780 -1.7672 -1.39%

So this means the big hot money (HFs and IBs) is OUT, and JOHNNY is surfing in front of a big storm.

Wednesday after inventory builds, we get a USD rally and all commodities and related equities sell off. But the selling could start right here into the 3y auction.

Leftback said...

More Deflation:

Apartment Rents Declining

Nic said...

Big names selling EUR agreed. Apparently sterling is being lifted by flow from Greece!

Anyone else waiting for FOMC?

karen said...

xlf makes new high and faz, new low.

Leftback said...

Sterling USD and JPY all up, with gold. Sounds like some of the shipping magnates are "shipping out" their wealth before the New Drachma !!!

Any port in a storm...!!!

Watch the German and French banks, they are on the hook.

Mannwich said...

@karen: Financials are all going to infinity and FAZ to zero. They can't be allowed to fail so the perception is "get in now or be priced out forever". Well, here we are, up every single day due to idiotic policy by Benny, Timmy and the boys. Moral Hazard writ large.

Leftback said...

The 1-yr note auction went off OK. At these yields, the 3y will likely be good as well. If not, look for a sell-off in equities for sure. Strong coverage expected all week.

karen said...

LOL! MS to take a Gambling Write-Down?

Leftback said...

Started a modest short position in the small caps (IWM). Want to short gold/silver but this is not the day.

The Fed minutes aren't likely to be important but there might be an added dissenter, so 2 instead of 1. Another discount rate hike is a wild card.

mcHAPPY said...

@LB

Why not take your modest short position in TZA?

DL said...

New highs ($NYHGH) have been lagging $SPX the last few weeks.

Leftback said...

McH: Sometimes options are a better play, sometimes not. With VIX so low, options are cheap. Ridiculously so.

Did anyone take my advice and buy TLT calls at 4.00% on the 10y?

mcHAPPY said...

Cool. Thanks.

Mannwich said...

@lb: I nibbled on some TLT yesterday.

Leftback said...

Greek spreads are unbelievable... who knew we would spend time discussing GGBs? I mean, JGBs, sure, but GGBs....?

Making USTs look JUICY.

karen said...

Just Reduced about 100k, I think.. posted this listing at the other site a few months ago.. Laguna Beach alone is the next shoe to drop! The number of properties available on that small stretch of coastline is unnerving. And every single week, 6-12 distressed properties are added to the pool.

Mannwich said...

@karen: Apparently there were/are other "actors" in Southern Cal besides the ones who get paid to appear on screen to do it (read: those "acting" like they were wealthy to keep up appearances).......

Leftback said...

Longish tail on the 3y auction - 1.776%. The short end is just a graveyard lately. Why anyone would be hanging there is beyond me. No yield, rising rates and almost impossible to hedge properly.

Anything slightly hawkish in the Fed minutes and we take a little trip down in equities...

Leftback said...

"And every single week, 6-12 distressed properties are added to the pool"

and every one of them has a pool, and each is occupied by bank execs partying like it's 1999...

acting is the ENTIRE culture in So Cal, you got to fake it to make it. Karen is a displaced Puritan among the Vanities.

Mannwich said...

@lb: "Just Make Your Own Reality" should be Cali's slogan.

Nic said...

Fed's Kocherlakota suggests $20 bln per month MBS sales, passive approach too slow:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/minneapolis-fed-president-mulls-steady-mbs-sales-2010-04-06-132210

karen said...

TJX hikes div and and announces share buyback.. stock up 2pts in two days. (thanks for that marketwatch link, nic!)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tjx-hikes-dividend-25-sees-1-bln-share-buyback-2010-04-06

karen said...

so, it is getting scary interest rate wise.. and ignore municipal bond default risks and this tidbit:

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The future of pension plans at General Motors Co. and Fiat SA (FIAT.Y 13.22, +0.02, +0.15%) managed Chrysler Group LLC is uncertain and the federal government has billions of dollars in exposure if the plans fail, the Government Accountability Office said Tuesday. The GM and Chrysler plans, which require large contributions within the next five years, expose the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation to $14.5 billion in losses, and across the sector the PBGC is exposed to about $42 billion. "Moreover, until Treasury either sells or liquidates the equity it acquired in each of the companies in exchange for the TARP assistance, its role as shareholder creates potential tensions with its role as pension regulator and overseer of PBGC in its role as pension insurer," said the GAO in a statement.

karen said...

where is DL today? i need a dose of, of, something.

DL said...

Karen @ 1:31

I was there @ 12:52.

I just give you a hard time anyway. You should be glad I'm not posting much today.

Leftback said...

LB running off to lunch.

MBS Sales by the FED would be an interesting input into the markets. The distressed hedge fund guys got out ahead of the Fed buying last year, and now they will want to get out ahead with the selling.... the logical thing would be for them to take their 50-60% profits, buy Ts, and sit out the next market decline.

Thoughts?

Mannwich said...

TLT about to go red soon.

Nic said...

The bond bears are getting noisier LB:

Bell begins to toll for bonds:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bell-begins-to-toll-for-bonds-2010-04-02?link=kiosk

McFearless said...

regarding the idea of a bond bubble, has there ever been a bubble that the majority of pundits were able to identify?

I think there were few that saw the credit bubble of the GD, few that saw the tech crash, and even fewer that saw 2008 (or what a holdout like me still thinks is coming). Seems to me at least that very few pundits like bonds.

Is that what you see at major tops, the net hating the investment that is just about to tank? I don't think that's how it works.

CV said...

Tue Apr 06, 2010 9:00 am EDT

Nice move: Phil Mickelson brings his wife's doctor in to caddy
By Jay Busbee

Before we close the door on everything non-Masters, one final look at a good story from this past weekend. Phil Mickelson takes grief for pretty much everything he does or doesn't do, from his appearance to his attitude to his game. And even though he's been struck by tragedy in the past year -- the cancer diagnoses on both his wife and mother -- he's still the PGA player most fans love to goof on.
But you can't deny the guy knows how to show some love. Like this past weekend at the Shell Houston Open, when he brought on a special caddy for a few holes -- the doctor who's been treating his wife and mother.

Mickelson had invited Dr. Tom Buchholz, a radiation oncologist at Houston's M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, to the tournament along with many other doctors and hospital staff. And on Sunday, on the 14th tee, when Phil was out of contention -- hold the jokes for half a second -- he invited Buchholz to take the bag from regular caddy Bones Mackay.

That's one hell of a cool gesture, isn't it? It cost Phil absolutely nothing -- matter of fact, it might have helped. Buchholz helped Phil to a birdie on 14, and suddenly a one-hole stint turned into three holes.

"Three great reads, three great clubs," Mickelson said later. "It was only supposed to go one hole. I ended up making birdie, and I kept making birdies. We went 3-for-3 together." Buchholz had some experience as a caddy, having looped after college. But it wasn't his green-reading skills that put him on the bag.
"This man has helped us through some of the toughest times that we've gone through," Mickelson said. "He's the best at what he does."

Nice move from Mickelson. If the Gods of Augusta respect karma, Lefty's going in with a little extra bump.

mcHAPPY said...

Bonds will only tank when everyone is all in i.e. Johnny has traded equities for bonds and MSM reminds all that "gentlemen prefer bonds".

mcHAPPY said...

FOMC = Status Quo

karen said...

Trader Mark's Cando Comments

CV said...

@karen

Here are a few more CanDo comments

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6djgavbp7c

Mannwich said...

TLT red.

CV said...

You know?

From the 1180 hit the other week - it appears the SPX is going MEGAPHONE shaped...

bob said...

FWIW

My tea leaves are portending another run down on the EUR overnight. On the 4h, the MA 20 is going to move down through the MA50.

Got stopped out of TBT over night and jumped back in.

Held back on the TLT calls, still might jump.

Busy with work lately, sorry I haven't been around much.

Nic, great job on the currency comments, appreciate it.

karen said...

Comments from Mark Minervini (not to be taken lightly!)

Currently, my work shows a decent number of high relative strength stocks displaying characteristics consistent with sound price set-ups. This leads me to believe that the market may have more to go on the upside. Adding to that view is the fact that none of the major indicators that I rely upon as a warning of real market deterioration are in negative territory as of yet.

Last week the Nasdaq Composite Advance/Decline (A/D) Line as well as the NYSE A/D Line made new recovery highs. At the very least, one of these two A/D Lines should peak prior to a market peak in price. The 52-week high/low list looks promising as well; it has not shown divergence or negative action as of yet.

Notwithstanding some distribution last week in the major averages, we are still firing on all cylinders. I'm going to remain in the bullish camp until I see a more significant change in the weight of evidence pointing to the bearish case; more distribution in the major averages and individual stock stop losses getting hit regularly would be a move in that direction.

In the stock market, I feel most comfortable when I'm a lone wolf, and right now, there seems to be no lack of bearishness in the form of correction talk. I can't seem to find a single person who doesn't think this market "needs" to correct a bit. Maybe the shorts will keep shorting and continue fueling this rally even higher still? We can only hope.

My comments from last week still stand:

"At this point, we could easily get a single-digit percentage pullback in the major averages and still leave a healthy uptrend intact. What’s important to gauge during a market pullback is how the leading stocks are acting. So far, most of the stocks in our Minervini Select® portfolio have held up quite well and we remain long a decent number of names. I would expect a few stocks here and there to violate their protective stop-losses however; I would not throw in the towel just yet on this bull rally."

CV said...

Almost all the major stock market tops of the past century were marked by a Broadening Top pattern.

This pattern, also know as a Megaphone, which also looks like a set of jaws, is uniquely characterized by two mirroring boundary lines.

karen said...

SEC proposing Risk Retention Requirements..

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to vote Wednesday on a proposal to encourage issuers of asset-backed securities, such as those based on mortgages, to retain at least 5% of the credit risk, according to people familiar with the proposed rules.

CV said...

Ask Minervi what he thinks about MEGAPHONES...

AmenRa said...

Warning: 1190.89 is the 1.786 fibo from 666.79. We've held the 1.764 (1176.22). A close above 1190.89 opens up the move to 1218.63 (the 1.8276 fibo) and 1227.43 (the 1.8408 fibo). Is it legal to start drinking before the market closes?

CV said...

@Amen

I was thinking more along the lines of

"Last call for alcohol"

Leftback said...

Call volume on stocks is going through the roof here....

DL said...

VIX finally looks ready to kiss 16.

CV said...

"4" handle on 10y was my first criteria (got it yesterday but pulled back)

VIX 16 was another (16.23 low today thus far)...

"5" handle on 30y was another...

Leftback said...

Carry has not rallied. The JOHNNYs are in this on their own today. Lloyd and Jamie got theirs yesterday.

DL said...

LB @ 2:38

OTOH, $CPCE is up 63% today, according to stockcharts.com.

(Not sure what to make of that).

CV said...

@LB

Trying their damndest to get to DOW 11,000

McFearless said...

Fwiw, EWI's last forecast was bullish if it was anything. So, here we have it, I'm not sure there are any bearish forecasts for the near term out there. I know Faber and Russell both think we could get pullbacks, but I don't read either as being overly bearish, RR made late comments yesterday that internally all looked pretty good.

I suppose this is the time when anyone that isn't bullish may question their sanity.

Colin said...

REIT surge continues to run me over, someone remind me why I stepped in front of the SRS freight train.

DL said...

McF,

Prechter's bullish?

WTF?

karen said...

spy and dia still below half avg volume with an hour 15 to go..

I-Man said...

Piece of shit dollar, get your ass in gear.

Leftback said...

They are paying you to own puts...

We will NOT see a 5 handle on the 30y this week. Macro Man drew his line in the sand at 4.00% on the 10y today, FWIW.

We have gone from short to buying long bonds on weakness today or tomorrow.

CV said...

@karen

just think what they'd do w/o C

mcHAPPY said...

I am sitting on my cash until otherwise. My only goal in life is to never catch a falling knife - again.

Ben, has RP made any reference to his call for traders to go short 200%?

I-Man said...

Dude...

XLU.

karen said...

a good graphic of $spx overbot sectors All of Them

Leftback said...

BUCKY should turn up again overnight, if not sooner. Euro only has one way to go, and the yen and Caddy have had good runs now.

Greeks are buying anything not nailed down outside of Europe. Expect major weakness in European bank stocks soon if yields rise further.

DL said...

What's NOT overbought at this point?

karen said...

even numbers across the board would be something to marvel at.. (algos having fun with us!)

11000, 1200, 2450

Leftback said...

Treasuries.

CV said...

@DL

This is the last I heard from RP...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcO4MMzdYE8

Nic said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bob said...

Looking at the news over night a lot of it.

ABC consumer confidence US
EMU PPI and GDP
Germany factory orders

among others

DL said...

CV @ 2:57

I'll have to wait 'till I get home to see it (won't run on this computer).

Nic said...

I missed amen=ra's post.
Nasdaq is at the 161.8 fib extension from the lows. This could be a turning point for a correction anyhow.

McFearless said...

re: dollar, I think the five up may have already completed, we'll see, but I've cut way back on bucky for now.

@DL

Prechter's bullish?

Prechter got bullish on 2/23/09 "cover all shorts", he's made two terrible top calls since then, oh well, calling tops aint easy. In any event, this is not Prechter, it's Hochberg that writes the FF, and who has pretty much been getting abused by the market nonstop for a while now. I read him as bullish near term, or if that isn't fair, I think confused would be appropriate.

@Mchappy,

No, he hasn't said to go short again, and fwiw, as all I see are troll comments on all the boards about this, he would have stopped you out of that trade in January at break-even base don the special interim report he put out a few days after he said to short.

CV said...

At this rate (with an hour to go), SPY volume won't even get to 100M shares...

Yesterday it BARELY made 100M...

Jan 11/14 were the last two days with such low volume...

McFearless said...

I find consumer confidence to be even less useful than most of the data we look at every so often.

Leftback said...

A CLAVADISTA is coming... sentiment and complacency are extreme.

Nic said...

161.8fib ext for the S&P futs is 1196

Nic said...

I thought Prechter was calling for a 10% correction between now and May?

AmenRa said...

The next time I hear "a key psychological level of 11000" I'm shooting the tv.

CV said...

@Nic

A 10% pullback from 1196 would be "beautiful"...

That would take us straight to 1076 and FILL THAT GAP...

Plus we could all get back to talking about "karens top" again...

AmenRa said...

The same goes for "unexpected".

CV said...

DL

I think the term "now" implies a beginning point

McFearless said...

I haven't done my defending of EWI in a while so some food for thought:

1. Lots of cry babies appear to have FOLLOWED them and lost some money lately. A point to make about this is that there are always reasons for people to either refrain from following a good recommendation or to follow only the rec's they are most comfortable with. I'm curious how many people that went short with EWI also went long the dollar? You'd be up had you followed their advice on BOTH, but my thoughts are that far more did the stock short, because they just couldn't grasp the dollar making a bottom. They "knew better" iow.

2. Along the lines of what I mentioned earlier, seems to me a lot of Johnny's are into wave as of late. They waited until RP was more right than he had been in the better part of two decades to follow his advice. How typical. Or, maybe they followed him and made money shorting the 07 peak, then each time they bet more and more on his market calls, ignoring risk mgmt because "he's been right" and the time he's wrong they are most heavily invested, and will now miss the big decline being shy because he "burned them".

I have more to say about their top calls, and how stupid most of the comments about that are when considered, but this is long enough.

CV said...

but one needs to be more specific about ENDING...

May? what May?

When I lived in Italy, there was a huge stretch of highway that wasn't completed for about 6 years...

The sign said "Work to be completed in June"...

What June? was the joke...

CV said...

It's nice to be out of that socialist/bureaucratic state (oh wait, nevermind)...

McFearless said...

"I thought Prechter was calling for a 10% correction between now and May?"

Nah, that's never been written in any of his pay stuff. He sticks by the P3 call.

CV said...

@Amen Ra...

LOL "unexpected"...

Yeah thats why they pay the economists & analysts the BIG BUCKS... So that the reports can come out UNEXPECTED 90% of the time...

DL said...

CV @ 3:08

Nic's post at 3:04 could be interpreted to mean that R.P. is saying that the correction can begin any time in the next 6 weeks. But I don't know what RP has said.

DL said...

"Nah, that's never been written in any of his pay stuff. He sticks by the P3 call"

Meaning, some time in the next four years we'll get a bear market?

Hell, I can make calls like that.

CV said...

@DL

Well, I can probably assure of one thing... Whatever happens, it'll likely be UNEXPECTED...

That's what CV predicts, that the market "corrects" unexpectedly...

Leftback said...

there was a huge stretch of highway that wasn't completed for about 6 years...

Ah, that's Italy.. what is six years? There are beautiful women to look at, calcio to watch, great food and wine, so why work?

Probably waiting for the oxen to show up and pull the roller.

BTW, CV, if you are ever in NYC, for regional Italian food from Puglia, a little place called Osteria Gelsi is really excellent - with a nice selection of Pugliese wines and local dishes.

Rustic yet refined, as they might say at Hooters...

Nic said...

I'm going to find where I read what Prechter said, I am not a paying follower ...

DL said...

CV,

"That's what CV predicts, that the market "corrects" unexpectedly..."

Hey, you should charge big bucks for that sort of wisdom.

DL said...

Nic @ 3:16

McFearless knows, but usually won't tell.

He's afraid that RP is going to sue him for copyright infringement.

karen said...

This is why i adored Macro Man's comment today with regard to rates:

Levels not too far north of here have capped market pricing over thepast year; this, combined with a 10 year note flirting with a 4% yield, suggests that fixed income might be a scoop here. Unless something has materially changed, in which case it's a sale. Gee, maybe Macro Man has a future in research....

CV said...

@LB

Thanks for the tip...

I might UNEXPECTEDLY show up... I had an, ahem, very nice and shapely friend from Brindisi (Puglia) named Vania...

She could have been a Hooters girl (volume of which was like she was, um, EXPECTING)...

Leftback said...

LB is ready to take a punt on the short side tomorrow in:

CRUDE oil.
ENERGY stocks
SMALL caps.

The MINERS are also going to go down, but not until this little gold/silver squeeze is done. ENERGY and MINING are the most overbought segments as of today.

CV said...

@Nic@DL

That information is only available on Mcfearless' PAY SERVICE...

and the terms are... You have to PAY for the information, but once you get it, he has to kill you! :-)

Nic said...

Hahaha OK I will pass
Everything we could want is is here for free right CV?

McFearless said...

DL,

No, you tend to predict the past, sorry. If you need me to explain I can, but you don't make forecasts, or I've never seen you make one. Not trying to be rude.

Given that his target for P3 is a dow <1k, the fact that he'd call for a bottom within the next four years is irrelevant at the end of the day if you understand what he's calling for...

I don't really agree with the comments along the lines of May, what May either.

Isn't the objection there that prechter didn't have a perfect handle on the extent of this rally BEFORE IT STARTED, which is when I saw virtually nobody that understood the coming rally EXCEPT these guys. I think that was of far greater value than any disvalue that has resulted in them getting a few top calls wrong. The market moved up about 400 points on the S&P since they said to cover all shorts, it certainly hasn't gone up that many points since they first advised a short, which should have been stopped out a long time ago anyway.

The time factor is the least predictable element in Wave, so I give wave analysts credit even when they can't call the day of the week we top out. Form, well, there are 13 patterns, form doesn't fail, and as far as price level, can anyone here name at least five other forecasts that called for a minimum rally to S&P 1k last March?

I'd say 2/3 aint bad.

CV said...

@LB

I think I was reading something this morning about SILVER actually being in tight marginal supply...

Maybe that's part of what's holding the miners up...

Also, I looked at FCX this AM just for fun... For some reason (maybe Chinese PIG FARMERS), it seems like it just wants to go to PAR...

FWIW - What the hell do I know?

CV said...

@Nic

You betcha! From CV, you get it all for FREE!

But I still KILL YOU in the end!

McFearless said...

"He's afraid that RP is going to sue him for copyright infringement."

if I get an e-mail I will share stuff from time to time. I've given AT some charts before....I think he usually laughs at their counts :).

CV said...

CV just UNEXPECTEDLY ate a bowl of corn flakes (with a banana)...

I don't know why... I NEVER eat cereal... Didn't know I even had it in the house...

Hmmm... (the corn flakes indicator)?

McFearless said...

Also,

In case anyone is wondering about my picture...it is the S&P 500.

CV said...

@McF

"I've given AT some charts before....I think he usually laughs at their counts :)"

Maybe I should have has a bowl of COUNT Chocula!

DL said...

McFearless @ 3:28

How about if you make a forecast once in a while? And one which is specific?

CV said...

@McF

if that's the S&P 500, pray tell, is it UNDERWATER, or in BUBBLE MODE, I can't tell...

AmenRa said...

McF

Did you see the Silver 3LB info?

CV said...

@DL

I forecast that we get to 200 comments on this thread BEFORE the SPY hits 100M shares traded

McFearless said...

C,

I'd wait on the cereal, I hear as part of Michelle's food awareness program, or whatever it is called, they are coming out with Obama Crunch. Affordable and healthy cereal for the masses as part of our preventative care programs. They are also tossing around just 'Bama Crunch, though I hear some folks in Alabama think that could cause confusion.

McFearless said...

Ra,

No, I'll go check that old thread though. Thanks very much.

bob said...

The consumer confidence number is useless, I agree. But it does usually make for entertaining headlines.

karen said...

John Murphy's Market Msg is all about Commodities and Commodity Currencies.. his points being..

the dollar is not as strong as it appears.. UUP in particular is rising because of euro and yen. (57.6% of uup is euro, yen 13%, BP 12%, SF 3%...

falling ag markets are muting the crb rise

basically, "In other words, the outlook for commodities (and their related shares) is even better than it looks on the charts of the U.S. Dollar Index and the CRB Index. And, to the extent that rising commodities reflect economic strength, that's positive for stocks as well. The only market it's bad for is bonds."

So, he's buying into stocks being "smart" and forecasting stronger economic growth.. particularly EMs ??!!

Time will tell is all I have to say..

McFearless said...

DL,

Last forecast I made was here on 1/14 and again on 1/15.

In case you missed it, both were completely wrong!

Prior to that was my big call last spring for going long. I trade bigger time frames than most here based on how I manage client money.

I will never post all my calls here, only some, I get paid by people to do that.

Leftback said...

In Barcelona, Lionel Messi is having Arsenal on toast.

DL and McF: PLEASE cease the sniping. We like you both but it's getting old. Believe me when DL gets on my nerves with his incessant goldbuggery I just ignore him - or knee him in the goolies.

Just kidding, old chap.

McFearless said...

C,

i was thinking bubble mode, some are bigger than others of course.

did anyone see an Apple store this last weekend. The one at the DE mall had the biggest line I'd ever seen there before.

CV said...

@McF

As long as Michelle doesn't come out with a FASHION AWARENESS PROGRAM, I'm OK...

http://i491.photobucket.com/albums/rr279/erman3157/michelle-obamas-butts-so-big-1.jpg

bob said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAjWi663kXc

Nic said...

Beware of a short squeeze in EURUSD. A lot got sold today, there was in excess of EUR 250 mln on the bid at 1.3365 and it didn't move it lower which is not good
China reportedly has a big double no touch option 1.33 / 1.36 which usually gets taken out but only after a fight.

McFearless said...

sorry, didn't mean to be sniping...

CV said...

Come on people...

6 more comments to go to 200... And the SPY is at 96M...

Let's get the jabbering going...

McFearless said...

I think Faber likes the Euro at 1.34 ish.

Leftback said...

Wednesday is usually DOLLAR DAY with crude taking a breather.
Thursday we'll have a weak claims number, FED easy, ZIRP for ever...

I will play this with commodities, not directly.
They have to dump equities W/Th anyway to get the 10/30y out.

CV said...

CV likes it at 1.29-ish

Mannwich said...

Minny Fed president expects the Fed to "normalize its balance sheet" by the, and I quote - "end of the teens"...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/minneapolis-fed-president-expects-feds-balance-sheet-normalize-2020-parable-fed-and-sarah

bob said...

Nic,

Where do you pick rumors on the FX markets like that? Any good links you would care to share? Especially interested in China's positions.

CV said...

98 & 98...

Does CV have to put us over the top here?

Nic said...

Bob - www.forexlive.com
Run by a really smart ex-banker, its 24hrs and its free.

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