Morning Audibles 3.9.10

I was going to put up a "red carpet" foto of Demi Moore in her Versace Oscars dress (if the futures were pointing positive), but since ANOTHER Italian, (Fibonacci), has intervened, I think I'll go with him...


Today is:


- 1 year since the March 6/9 lows from last year
- "21" days since the 1040 low point that the market has rallied from
- "34" days since 1150 in January
- "233" trading hours since the same level was reached


I had to laugh, because CNBC came out with this comment: 





"The bull market turns one on Tuesday having surged almost 70 percent from its 12-year closing low on March 9, 2009.  History shows that by simply passing that 12-month threshold, it will make it that much more rare for the advance to suddenly end." - CNBC

So there you have it... "History shows it"... Remember, TO THEM, a month ago they applied the same rationale to the "Super Bowl Indicator" (which has a 83% correlation), and before that to the "January Effect" (both of which actually ended up pointing to a DOWN MARKET), but in their world, if something doesn't make a BULL case, then it's on to the next "Historical Index".

I'm going to add to this topic thread as the day progresses... Myself, and Amen Ra, if you remember, had been debating about the "time expiry" of what I've mentioned above last week... We eventually settled on the 14:30 (thereabouts) this afternoon timeframe (due to 30 min. candles getting credited for 60 min. candles at the end of days & two holidays)... In the end, if this day turns out to be just as uneventful as yesterday, well then I might just have to get to talking about OTHER THINGS... At this point "March Madness" couldn't come soon enough because "March Dullness" is too difficult to BEAR (pun intended). 


Oh what the hell too... Here's Demi Moore



 Get your minds off of trying to picture karen in Demi's dress and look at this chart...



SPX - I suppose this trajectory looks natural to some...

263 comments:

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CV said...

@I-Man (3:01)

We're sure to find out later that it was WANGER... No wait... Wanger would have sold at 14:30... Strike that...

Saint Jamie said...

WE DO. BECAUSE WE CAN.

CV said...

@I-Man (3:01)

We're sure to find out later that it was Wanger...

No wait... Wanger would have been selling at 14:30... Nevermind...

CV said...

@Amen

What's interesting about the 14:30 move is that it's trying to support right here at the 1141.58 level...

... the level I was talking about this morning (that relates back to the high on 1/21)

CV said...

I just make this stuff up...

Go back to buying stocks people...

Leftback said...

LB is still imagining KAREN in Demi's dress.. or out of the dress...

(awaits yellow card...)

CV said...

1125 here we come...

I-Man said...

Close at 1137?

I-Man said...

And did I mention that Demi Moore was hot...

CV said...

@I-Man

That 1137 call would be a good one IMO...

Anything "just under" 1138... That failed in the overnight to reverse...

It could create a gap down open tomorrow...

CV said...

Per my comments this morning...

1138 is going to be a big bogey right now...

CV said...

I say "Sell 'em Lloyd"...

...but that's just me...

Unknown said...

AIG common will be worthless. Sorry, HANK. Got bonds?

He did, but he left them in the vault in the basement.

Leftback said...

Demi Moore is clearly hot.

Careful there, JOHNNY, did I mention that the back side of these here market mountains can be STEEPER than the blue trail? BTW, it can be a bit icy out of the sun here before you get down to the bowl at the bottom, so mind how you go on those super-leveraged Rossignol 210s there, buddy.

CV said...

@Tyler

AIG common... Can you say "Ahoy polloi"...?

Leftback said...

Tyler, LMAO....

Man, I love these reversals, can't help thinking of the last JOHNNY who bought up there at SPX 1440. Smirk.

SELL EM JAMIE, SELL EM BRIAN, SELL EM LLOYD.

CV said...

@LB

"a bit icy out of the sun here before you get down to the bowl at the bottom"

Ladies & Gentlemen take my advice...
pull down your pants & slide on the ice...

karen said...

i know you all hate the money vampire.. but look at the candle it put in today..

karen said...

not that the candles have been helpful for anything other than losing money..

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Lefty..Something's wrong with the PPT, and J6-P has gone to his mother-in-law's (only place he can now afford) for vacation...we need you to put in some of your lunch money for next week to turn this thing around!

I-Man said...

PPT:

Please Purchase Treasuries...

CV said...

@Bruce

Whoa there doctor!...

It's ALL ON THE SIDELINES, remember?

CV said...

...to be joined soon by many friends...

Double Down Johnny said...

Oooooooohhhhhhh! A dip! I should double down.

Leftback said...

Bruce, Lefty don't play dat ppt ting.

Ooh dear, Hope JOHNNY doesn't catch an edge and fly out of control down this chute, or hit a hidden tree stump. These black diamonds can be treacherous late in the afternoon after a bit of meltage, followed by the sun going in, and refreezing, we've all been there, right?

Big blocks of selling: PLUNGE IMPLEMENTATION TEAM.
It's The PITs for JOHNNY.

CV said...

Puckered Portal Turds

Onlooker said...

karen

Which money vampire? :-] So many...

I assume you mean VXX though. Nice.

This daily candle for the SPX would be a beaut if it holds here. Kinda like that one at the top in Jan for the FTSE. Though that one was a classic. Like the antenna on the Sears tower!

And if you'd bought that pretty one at the 1044 bottom it would have made you some good money. So there's still something to it, as you know.

karen said...

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Rapid and heavy trading Tuesday sent shares of former financial titans American International Group Inc. (AIG), Citigroup Inc. (C) Fannie Mae (FRE) and Freddie Mac (FRE) soaring higher.

This comes amid elevated trading volume and no specific news from any of the companies.

A surge of optimism appeared to start Tuesday with Citi's share gains. The stock moved higher right after the opening bell and then continued on a steady pace through much of the session, recently up 7.6% to $3.84.

At about 1 p.m. EST, the optimism in the cheap shares of Citi seemed to spread. AIG shares at that point spiked sharply higher. In the next half hour, Fannie and Freddie followed suit.

AIG was up 14% to $33.09 in recent trading, earlier hitting a high of $34.80, a 20% gain. Freddie was recently up 12% to $1.33 and earlier topped off with a 18% rise. Fannie had added as much as 16% but was recently up 11% to $1.11.

It appeared that a factor in the rally in Citi shares was an interview that Bruce Berkowitz, manager of the $11 billion Fairholme fund, gave to Fortune magazine. Berkowitz said he bought more than $700 million in Citi shares recently and thinks the worst is over for holders.

"The price is right," Berkowitz said in the Fortune story. "It's just a question of when it becomes obvious to everyone that the worst is over."

Onlooker said...

And if I had... Don't want that last paragraph to come across the wrong way. :-]

karen said...

Citi shares were also being helped by a report that Barclays PLC (BCS) was looking for more U.S. assets and by a Fox Business Network report that the government was looking to sell its 27% stake in Citi, possibly as soon as within the next three months.

karen said...

Analysts at CrediSights said late Monday that Citi is "back from the brink and back in business," calling the stock "just plain cheap." The analysts did concede there remains work to be done.

It's not the first time that these stocks, almost wards of the state in their current condition, with heavy government ownership, have gone on a tear. The last week of August had seen each of the four hit their high marks of the bull market that reached its one-year anniversary Tuesday. While none approached those highs Tuesday, the rally looked familiar.

-By David Benoit, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2458; david.benoit@dowjones.com;

-By Shara Tibken, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2189; shara.tibken@dowjones.com

CV said...

All I know is that this little drop set up a perfect FIBO sequence

161.8% to the gap at 1131

261.8% to gap at 1122

50% retrace (UP), to 1141.58

I-Man said...

Alright, now lets ease it back down to 1137 into the close...

karen said...

onlooker, sorry.. i've been distracted... no i meant FAZ..

trying to figure out how c is cheap by any measure..

CV said...

423.6% to H&S @ 1108

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Sorry Lefty, I have been swamped in the salt mine today....back in a few

McFearless said...

""The price is right," Berkowitz said in the Fortune story. "It's just a question of when it becomes obvious to everyone that the worst is over."

Karen thanks for that.

I just went ALL IN on AIG. Berkowitz has...experience and that means he can't lose.

Seriously, what could go wrong?

To infinity....and way way beyond!

CV said...

From todays high to chart gap at 1122, it's 261.8% to 1086...

CV said...

From todays high to chart gap at 1122, it's almost 423.6% to 1044...

Leftback said...

NO chance at all that Berkowitz was TALKING HIS BOOK and couldn't wait to UNLOAD onto some poor unsuspecting SCHLUB.

HF managers are in and out faster than.... well, they are quick.

Leftback said...

By the close, it's almost as though today NEVER HAPPENED.

Except for the dress... left abandoned on the bed....

CV said...

Berkowitz...

Son of SAM (No LB... say it isn't so!)

karen said...

clearly i am out of the loop..

Restaurant Shares Rise On Same-Store Sales, Economic OptimismFont 3:48 PM ET 3/9/10 | Dow Jones

Sentiment in the sector was negative in the last month, given inconsistency in macroeconomic data, Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Matthew DiFrisco said. Last week ended on a positive note with data showing the U.S. economy shed fewer jobs than expected, he said, and consumers in general got a lift from retail-sales data. Retailers reported same-store sales above analysts' estimates Thursday, as terrible weather in February failed to keep shoppers from stores.

There's increased conviction that the restaurant sector has seen a bottom, DiFrisco said, which has shorts covering and investors anticipating improvement in top-line trends.

AmenRa said...

Karen

It's easy to have an increase in same store sales when you have fewer stores.

McFearless said...

Karen,

Can you please chill out with all the bullish articles. I feel as though we may practice group think.

And with that folks....I'm out.

More smart ass comments to follow tomorrow.

Happy Group Thinking!

karen said...

http://www.equifax.com/PR/pdfs/CommercialFactSheetFN3810.pdf

can someone find some positive data in the above report?

Delinquencies Trending Up for All Account Types
The chart below shows the average quarterly delinquency year over year for lines of credit, term loans and commercial credit cards from Q4 2006 to Q4 2009. According to Equifax data, average past due dollars for lines of credit reached $37,160 in Q4 2009, a 273.4% increase over Q4 2006. Delinquencies for term loans saw the second highest rise, with a 139.8% increase in average dollar delinquency during the same period. Also not immune to this trend were credit cards, with the average account delinquency totaling $3,255 in Q4 2009 – a 43.3% jump from Q4 2006.

CV said...

@Amen

Check out the FIBO fractions from the first wave bottom off the 14:30 high print...

I got...

161.8% of that move being the 1132 gap
261.8% of that move being the 1122 gap
423.6% of that move being 1109 (possible H&S)

261.8% of move from (14:30) to 1122 being 1086
423.6 of move being near 1044

check it out...

Also, we closed UNDER 1141.58 (the 1/21 high print that I was talking about this morning)... Tried to regain it at (15.42), failed at 1141.26 (which was a 50% retracement back to (14.30)...

It's ALL RIGHT THERE...

karen said...

I do apologize for all the articles.. i'm really looking for bullish news.. something that prompts me to buy the next dip..

CV said...

@karen

You can put anything you want up...

CV would like to be cautious around here, but the FIBO picture that was painted by todays move (and just expressed at [4:04]) suggests a lot of sideways choppiness to ensue)...

And when I say SIDEWAYS... I'm talking about the entire 1044-1150 zone as a trading range...

karen said...

reading about jcg now.. earnings came in as expected .46

i think jcg's gain is related to high-end department store losses:

Revenues increased 19% to $460.6 million. Store sales increased 23% to $311.1 million, with comparable store sales increasing 17%. Comparable store sales decreased 13% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008. Direct sales (Internet and Phone) increased 13% to $139.2 million. Direct sales decreased 2% to $123.0 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008.

Leftback said...

@karen

"You can put anything you want up..."

or take anything you want off...

mcHAPPY said...

This post sums up mcHAPPY's view perfectly:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2061-A-Random-Look-at-RMBS-And-The-Economy.html

Denninger has been on quite the roll the last 2 weeks.

Leftback said...

We eked out a very tiny profit on the day, thanks to our TBT trade.

Leftback said...

Fraud and bogosity... that's about the size of it.

Leftback said...

In a RANTING contest, who wins - MISH, DENNINGER or JANET?

karen said...

i will greet tomorrow's market with trepidation.. much as i do with many of lb's comments!

mcHAPPY said...

DENNINGER! DENNINGER! DENNINGER!

CV said...

I'd vote for Denninger...

Leftback said...

Dis shit is fo the WRAP, mo-fos, ya heah?

The Bond Report 3.9.10

A risk-on morning was followed by a downhill afternoon, but HY was well bid on the day as spreads continued to decline asymptotically until they disappear up Bwarney Fwank's... [CENSORED BY BLACK HELICOPTERS]. The 3y auction went well and the curve steepened slightly although the long end caught a bid in the afternoon.

Corpies: LQD -0.10%; AGG 0.12%; JNK 0.20%; HYG 0.43%;
Govies: TLT 0.02%; IEI 0.13%; TIP 0.17%

We closed our hedges for a small gain. The major move in yields was Friday and we missed it. We expect the long bond auctions to be OK. and would buy into moderate weakness tomorrow.

CV said...

Thanks LB

We're going to have to name your piece...

"THE BOND RAP"...

Word MOFO!

CV said...

Great post by ROBOT TRADER at ZH

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/typical-options-expiration-maniacal-trading

karen said...

thanks, CV, i feel so much better now!

CV said...

@karen

I started with Demi's dress, and ended with Robot Trader...

I'm here to serve! :-)... But Now, I gotta go to the gym...

Can't wait for your CANDLE (W)RAP AMEN... If you need some help with some of the "rhymes" let me know...

Or, I could just do the "beat box" thing...

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