Morning Audibles 3.9.10

I was going to put up a "red carpet" foto of Demi Moore in her Versace Oscars dress (if the futures were pointing positive), but since ANOTHER Italian, (Fibonacci), has intervened, I think I'll go with him...


Today is:


- 1 year since the March 6/9 lows from last year
- "21" days since the 1040 low point that the market has rallied from
- "34" days since 1150 in January
- "233" trading hours since the same level was reached


I had to laugh, because CNBC came out with this comment: 





"The bull market turns one on Tuesday having surged almost 70 percent from its 12-year closing low on March 9, 2009.  History shows that by simply passing that 12-month threshold, it will make it that much more rare for the advance to suddenly end." - CNBC

So there you have it... "History shows it"... Remember, TO THEM, a month ago they applied the same rationale to the "Super Bowl Indicator" (which has a 83% correlation), and before that to the "January Effect" (both of which actually ended up pointing to a DOWN MARKET), but in their world, if something doesn't make a BULL case, then it's on to the next "Historical Index".

I'm going to add to this topic thread as the day progresses... Myself, and Amen Ra, if you remember, had been debating about the "time expiry" of what I've mentioned above last week... We eventually settled on the 14:30 (thereabouts) this afternoon timeframe (due to 30 min. candles getting credited for 60 min. candles at the end of days & two holidays)... In the end, if this day turns out to be just as uneventful as yesterday, well then I might just have to get to talking about OTHER THINGS... At this point "March Madness" couldn't come soon enough because "March Dullness" is too difficult to BEAR (pun intended). 


Oh what the hell too... Here's Demi Moore



 Get your minds off of trying to picture karen in Demi's dress and look at this chart...



SPX - I suppose this trajectory looks natural to some...

263 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 263   Newer›   Newest»
CV said...

Fibozachi (at Zero Hedge) Has a whole article & comment section on what I wrote about above...

Amen & I were talking about it over a week ago so I'm not plagiarizing here... I also had a whole thread devoted to it back on DAY 21... You can look back because it had illustrations & all...

Anyway, Fibizachi's charts are nice here so I'll link up that here:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/narrowest-sp-500-range-2-3-years-fibonacci-time-cycles-volume-analysis

CV said...

Merkel, speaking to reporters in Luxembourg today before Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou meets President Barack Obama in Washington, said the European Union must take the lead in curbing the “very speculative elements” of derivatives trading, going beyond previous Group of 20 nations agreements. The U.S. must also be on board, she said.

European leaders are ratcheting up the pressure for tighter global regulation of derivatives as they seek to learn the lessons of the Greek fiscal crisis. Papandreou will press Obama today to help combat the “unprincipled speculators” he said threaten a new global financial crisis.


Explained:

See, the PROBLEM "isn't" the countries who elected Socialist leaders who borrowed money and spent it in unproductive ways... Instead, the PROBLEM is the BAD SPECULATORS who thought that that wasn't a good idea in the first place...

But a special hat tip here goes to the Gs's & JPM's of the world, who, with help from 33 Liberty, the POTUS, & Congress of the United States, were given the money TO speculate on these outcomes, and in some cases, show them how to falsify balance sheets so that they could gain entrance to the European Union...

Take a bow all!

Karen said...

CV, but the dullness is madness.. thanks for the dress! i was told i need to find a close up of her shoes.. apparently the highest of high heels..

CV said...

OK...

That's the ERASURE of one gap...

Now the next one is down at 1132...

CV said...

@karen

You can kind of tell they're high by the angle of her exposed toes... I do remember when she walked out on stage tho she walked fine...

Versace had another nice dress out there but I forget whose it was...

CV said...

@Amen

Whats the NEXT FIBO on BIDU?...

It's gotta be way up in the 700's by now...

CV said...

Buckys still looking fine here...

Karen said...

jcg announces today after the close.. this will be fascinating to me..current pe is 44 plus..

CV said...

GLD is going to be VERY VERY interesting to watch this week, I think...

You mentioned it yesterday afternoon karen... But the "uncertainty is being confirmed"

(to be oxymoronic about it)...

CV said...

@karen

Speaking of JCG (well, not exactly), but in that 'galaxy'...

I thought that most of the Tom Ford tuxes looked the best on the men...

Ironically, I didn't like the one that Tom Ford wore himself...

CV said...

Today 'just might' turn out to be more interesting than most expected...

So far, the market gapped down, but is failing to close the gap at 1138 (which was an important ALGO line from yesterday)...

It looks to me like it wants to head down to that 1132 gap... (unless it can get past this 1138 line to the upside)...

CV said...

Well there you go... it got OVER it, but there's no HEAVY 'follow thru' to the upside...

The ALGOS are triggering SELL orders on the downsides, but no BUYS on the upsides... Tells me there aren't a lot of 'shorts' out there...

Anyway, it keeps 'JUMPING THE SHARK' at these levels...

CV said...

If you guys don't know what I'm talking about...

Go take a look at the 1 minute chart for about the last 10 hours...

Look at what it does on BOTH SIDES of the 1138 level...

AmenRa said...

CV

The next fibo level is 6.857% which is 789.63.
Let's Talk About Baidu

bob said...

CV

I'm going with a bird.

CV said...

The main significance I can attach to the 1138 and 1141 (yesterday) levels is this:

Go back and look at the January 20 & 21 candles...

That's when the market REALLY took a dive (from 1150), and 1141 was where it bounced back to...

1138 was the OPEN on 1/21... It printed 1141.58 in the Johnny hour... then sold off hard...

Yesterdays 'high' was 1141.05 (just shy)...

Hmmm...

AmenRa said...

Baidu's gain is Google's pain.

CV said...

@Amen (BIDU)

Better start preparing a 11.092 for that...LOL

Karen said...

CV, TF wasn't looking his best.. not crazy about his tux, either! I saw a Dolce and Gabanna tux that i liked, however.

Now, i think i'll recheck that copper chart! gld hanging tight..

CV said...

@bob

I'm going with the "Jason Mask" from Halloween...

Karen said...

Gabbana.. excuse me!

bob said...

Could be the upper half of the batman symbol with the right wing clipped.

AR

I was looking for a yoda clip last night to counter with. My sick mind went wandering and I ended up with this.

http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=213010&title=jedi-sex-scandal

CV said...

@karen

Yeah, I think that "Twilight" kid actor was wearing the D&G...

CV said...

People... I know I'm making it hard here with the mixed posts...

But...

Keep a close watch on these 1138-1141 levels...

This is where the market REALLY broke down in January... (LOOK AT THE 1/20 & 1/21 candles)...

Better if you look at 60 minute candles instead of DAILY candles...

CV said...

For all intents and purposes... 1138 has been a difficult nut to crack going ALL THE WAY BACK to the first week of 2010...

Even when it did "crack it", it didn't last very long and kept having INTRADAY lows UNDER that number...

AmenRa said...

Just a thought. I know I like to use fibo numbers as MA's. The main crowd likes 20, 50, and 200. These are a variation of the fibo numbers i.e. 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, etc. Don't tell them though.

I-Man said...

Morning folks-

Had to take I-Mom to the airport this morning, so running a tad late.

The day of time, where it all may come together.

CV-

Were you able to take a peek at my GLD chart at all? Interested to hear some feedback on that one, as its one I've been struggling with.


Not sure about the dress, but damn is Demi fine... Ashton's a stud. Lucky basterd.

AmenRa said...

bob

I've seen that before. Funny video. "Ooh excited Yoda is..."

I-Man said...

FXE is looking toast.

I would short it, if it wasnt illegal and all.

;)

bob said...

Unless there is a major rally on the EURUSD, it looks like this afternoon the MA 20 is going to cross under the other MA's on the 4 hour.

We are currently below them all.

Karen said...

i can stack a dozen 'opposing' tickers on top of each other and they have all followed the same path.. so i'm sick of it all! you may as well look at copper as gold or the spx.. or $wtic..

CV said...

@I-Man

I did take a look at the GLD chart... I commented above that it's interesting as hell (because it looks to me like it could go either way)...

I'll take my best stab at it... If you put a GUN TO MY HEAD, I'd say...

- It does an "about face" sometime this week, heads back up and completes what was a "rising wedge" TIMEWISE around 111... next destination... DOWN (to around 105)...

But that's just GUN TO MY HEAD analysis... I've got nothing wagered on that outcome...

CV said...

@karen

Will somebody please introduce the Chinese to PVC tubing (so they don't think they need copper to build empty buildings)...

Also, tell them to go back to using an abacus... I mean, why do you need electronics, computers, or the internet, if your government censors everything?

I-Man said...

Yeah, I had to cop out and just not throw an outlook on that chart.

I dont even know how you trade it at this point.

Karen said...

GS has retaken the 170s.. thot they were blacklisted in europe now..

Karen said...

you don't trade at this point.. I-Man.. it is obviously all buy and hold from here on out..

I-Man said...

I suppose a buy limit order on GLD at 100 might be an ok trade...

I-Man said...

Well, actually, I-Man doesnt trade period anymore, because he MacGrubered his trading stake.

Leftback said...

Morning all... is that a picture of KAREN above.. sensational...

Auction at 1pm, look for a rotation out of stocks into the short end?
Our TBT is green, our silver/miner short is coming along.

Bucky is just taking a breather.

I-Man said...

What duration is auctioned today?

Karen said...

from rosenberg this morning..

• While you were sleeping — we are seeing a whole lots of profit-taking in the global equity markets; the USD and the Yen are firming, while the Pound is hitting 10-month lows; no data overseas, but early data releases in the U.S. were mixed

• Some market thoughts — As everyone talks about 1,200 as the next stop for the S&P 500, we are finding it fascinating how eerily similar this low volume, divergent rebound is to what followed the initial July 2007 sell-off

CV said...

I'm watching 1141.58 here...

That was the REBOUND high from 1/21...

CV said...

So far you've made a DAILY ENGULFING CANDLE...

But the "high" is still lower than the 1141.58 print from 1/21...

CV said...

My idea is SURE to be blown out of the water shortly...

So pretty soon you all can go back to your regular scheduled activities of buying stocks...

McFearless said...

The trade is in silver fellas, those charts are a lot easier than gold imo.

While we are talking about fibo's, just my thoughts, Andy his own self is what I might call skeptical that "real elliot waves" get formed anymore due to computers. He has also said though that 2008 painted a "beautiful impulse" down, and I'd also argue that during large degree optimism the waves are also "beautiful" I'd just throw out there that my own personal idea is that fear is larger now than it was during the depression as was the optimism larger than it was in the new era roaring 20's, it's all going to be larger degree than what we saw then (in the end...when this is over I'm saying) so here are some things to consider about fibo's in an environment such as this one (this was presented in Elliott's book Nature's Law:

1921-1929: 8 years
July 1921-November 1928: 89 months
September 1929-July 1932: 34 months
July 1932-July 1933: 13 months
July 1933-July 1934: 13 months
July 1934 - March 1937: 34 months
July 1932 - March 1937: 5 years (55 months)
March 1937 - March 1938: 13 months
March 1937 - April 1942: 5 years
1929-1942: 13 years

Or, look at this from Dow Theory Letters 11/21/1973:

Or this, from Walter E. White (1968)
1929 + 3 (years) 1932 bear market bottom
1929 + 5 1934 correction bottom
1929 + 8 1937 bull market top
1929 + 13 1942 bear market bottom
1929 + 21 1949 bear market bottom
1928 + 34 1962 crash bottom
1928 + 55 1983 probable Supercycle peak

As for Tom Ford, his background story is interesting and I think his designs capture social mood quite well, many designers I believe will be labled "bull market" styles, and wont' do well in the coming years as they did in the past. Tom Ford I think will do just fine.

Karen said...

see? told ya:

10:55 AM ET 3/9/10 | BusinessWire
W&A Publishing announces immediate availability of the book "Go Long: New Options Strategies for Buy And Hold Investors" by Mike Tosaw. The cover price is $32.95. It is available online at www.w-apublishing.com.

McFearless said...

oops, I erased the Dow Theory stuff somehow. Sorry for long post.

CV said...

LOL

Barry Ritholtz Says:
March 9th, 2010 at 8:46 am
I make market calls when I have something to say.

The weekly or monthly calls on a schedule are kinda goofy and pointless. People make them because the media asks.

If I have nothing new to say, I usually respond “On month XX, we said ___. We see no evidence to change that view, tho the (rally/sell off) is now further developed.”


---

Yeah, BR makes market calls, then CHANGES the call in the same thread post (to my recollection)...

CV said...

@ben

Some people try to do Gold with Tungsten

Others, try to do SILVER with ALUMINUM

LOL

I-Man said...

@ C

Check this and tell me what you think-

http://dreadcapital.blogspot.com/2010/03/spx-daily-3910.html

spoonman said...

A little late to the party with this one...but any thoughts on the uptick in consumer credit in the latest fed report? Non-revolving credit is up two months in a row. Just a blip? This is obviously not the entire universe of credit, but if credit is expanding again, then we'd better batten the hatches for inflation, no?

Karen said...

i think we need to batten the hatches for the banks to begin re-balancing their balance sheets, now that confidence has been restored to the system.. lol..

CV said...

@spoonman (Credit)

How about this?

People are taking to buying groceries now with their credit cards...

...and, financing the last car they'll ever own to get their 'payments' spread out over the next 5 years in the ONLY industry out there that sill offers them a loan for ANYTHING...

spoonman said...

and a link

spoonman said...

CV,

Revolving credit was down, but non-revolving expanded more. So it's not credit cards. Is this still some statistical hangover from CFC and the housing subsidy?

McFearless said...

@spoon,

Zhedge had an in-depth look at credit, as I recall the analysis showed that some 80% of that uptick came from the govt, so just like everything else, you are looking at a very distorted picture.

On the other side of the ledger, Faber has been presenting charts like M2, which are plummeting.

You already know my view about....inflation. It's simply what most people that are alive know, in fact, it's all we know for many of us, so it's really not a forecast just simply a referral to our RECENT past.

CV said...

@Iman

If anything... That price channel on your DREADCAPITAL chart corresponds with this 1141 level that I've been talking about today...

Latest look?

Take a look at the 1 minute charts and see the rejection at 1141.54... (Just .04 short of the 1/21/10 high of 1141.58)...

Who knows, maybe we'll take it out to the upside, but you can't tell me it's not something to watch for today...

Leftback said...

I-Man, we have a 3y auction at 1pm.

SAM have added to the trade du jour - short silver and miners.
BUCKY is just getting a second wind now that the JOHNNY HOUR is over.
We are keeping our TBT on today at least but it's on a leash.

spoonman said...

ben,
Do you have a link to the zerohedge post? I stopped reading them because I couldn't keep up with everything there and the conspiracy stuff was a little over the top, so now I rely on referrals to find the interesting stuff...As for the govt distortions, I'm not surprised. What I am surprised at is that the incentives seem to be working in the face of such obviously negative social mood. Want to make sure that my views change when the facts change.

McFearless said...

spoon,

also, I thought I saw somewhere that quite a few cars were sold in January.

I-Man said...

@ C

It also happens to line up pretty well with 1116, which if things get nasty, could get touched again on Thur/Fri?

spoonman said...

McFear,
Organic sales were up? Or some subsidy?

CV said...

@spoonman

Ben is right... I also read that CREDIT article on ZH last week and it was pretty decent...

I'll try to find a link on it...

bob said...

Spoon,

Also, the banks are playing games. What happens when a bank offers a (secured) loan to get rid of a revolving line? Did any credit really get extended? The interest on the revolver also gets included in the principal of the loan. Credit outstanding goes up.

Just a possibility, but a very old game.

I'll trade you my dead horse for your dead cow.

CV said...

@I-Man (11:25)

Technically it would make a lot of sense...

I mean, every indicator out there right now screams out DIVERGENCE... All the volume on BUYING is NADA, and the volume on down moves are high...

There are gaps to fill, and the algos will switch to sell orders on hitting them...

I really don't know what's keeping this market up right now except for 33 Liberty...

spoonman said...

gotta run, guys. I'll check back this evening.

Leftback said...

I think we are going down later today or tomorrow.

Karen said...

$tran made a new high today.. they should be trotting Richard Russell out for a chat now..

CV said...

33 Liberty says...

"Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain"

CV said...

Lord Blankfein says...

"You can eat your dinner eat your, pork & beans"...

McFearless said...

Spoon,

I'll see if I can dig it up, it was not a conspiracy post, I hear you on that.

As for this:

"What I am surprised at is that the incentives seem to be working in the face of such obviously negative social mood."

Well, IT IS a Global Idiot Bubble.

Reminds me of the stories clients keeping telling me about how peers are "taking advantage" of the extended unemployment benefits....and as I recall most recent data showed consumers were back to spending more than they earned...a hangover of social mood from the bubble days...

What could go wrong?

call me ahab said...

here's the most important read of the day-

Lindsay Lohan Reportedly Suing E-Trade for Milkaholic Ad

I wonder how the Etrade stock is holding up- lol

CV said...

Bwaney Fwank says...

"Ooooh... If we'we tawking about a "Backdoow Man" I wanna be fowessed in wine"...

CV said...

@McF

Yeah... That DOWNTURN was so dreadfully hard to bear...

It's TOUGH getting $2000 a month checks from unemployment extended to infinity, and living in a McMansion without having to pay a mortgage on it...

I can see why they're so eager to spend now... You know... it's 'therapy' to ease their suffering...

McFearless said...

@Bob,

This is a really good point here:

"What happens when a bank offers a (secured) loan to get rid of a revolving line?"

Lets not forget the big game that was being played all over during the RE bubble. Running up credit cards, and then using a HELOC or loan to "pay them off", repeat to infinity (because RE never goes down)

Rates are low right now so I think to some extent this has to be going on again.

McFearless said...

Karen,

RR's PTI is bullish by some 40 pts now, back in Feb. it was only bullish by 26 or so. I might describe him as cautious on the market, but a huge bull on gold. I would think in tonights update he'll discuss his 50% number again of 10,725 on the DOW.

call me ahab said...

"What I am surprised at is that the incentives seem to be working in the face of such obviously negative social mood."

how so? I do not see the numbers supporting that argument- as it relates to RE anyway- may be too early to tell as the Spring market is now upon us- so we'll see-

but I do know banks are releasing bank owned property slowly to keep a floor under prices- this has helped more than the QE or the tax incentives- because in some areas- all there is for inventory is bank owned property- so if you keep a lid on supply- you keep a lid on price declines

bob said...

MCF

I can also see an incentive for banks to be making third mortgages. They offered the first.

A second bank offered a 2nd mortgage. They can effectively block a foreclosure sale. They would be forced to take a loss on the non-existent value of the 2nd mortgage. There a stories about this, apparently a cash payment from the RE broker to the 2nd mortgage company helps release the lien.

The original bank now offers a third, to give them money to keep the first current.

Its a bad set of incentives, not necessarily proof of what is going on. You would need a friendly appraiser, they are still around I am sure.

bob

CV said...

@ahab

"but I do know banks are releasing bank owned property slowly to keep a floor under prices"

True - perhaps... But why is it that the first thing that came to my mind when I read that was the scene in the rowboat with 3 stooges...

The boat is sinking and Curly grabs a hand crank drill and says "Oooh! a water letter outer"...

call me ahab said...

bob-

what you have to keep in mind- is the 2nd trust companies in most cases are the same banks as the one's holding the first trust-

so why they want to play ball and essentially write off the entire value of the 2nd trust for a small payment in return-

they wouldn't

CV-

I don't have a problem w/ the banks managing their REO inventory this way- smart business strategy-

I do have a problem w/ tax incentives and Fed MBS purchases to force down market rates-

we either have a private sector- or we don't

bob said...

MCF

Big Banks Accused of Short Sale Fraud

Karen said...

ben, thanks for the update.. i was once a subscriber many years ago..

Leftback said...

A lot of stops are getting blown here... Magic Tuesday.

CV said...

@ahab (12:14)

"I don't have a problem w/ the banks managing their REO inventory this way- smart business strategy"

Yeah, until you consider that most of it is probably happening by way of bob's link (12:15)

CV said...

Quick...

But Citi now or get priced out forever!

bob said...

Ahab

I'm thinking more of 2nd's that were taken out from less reputable outfits for debt consolidation. Lots of commercials for them in the hey day. Who owns the liens today?

The link above, although from CNBC, describes the specific situation. Put a big boy holding the second vs a community bank holding the first.

I am getting well out of my area of knowledge.

I-Man said...

Are we having fun yet?

:)

You know the dash for trash is in full swing when Citi is up 7% on the day...

Lemme guess? They are merging with Greece?

Leftback said...

Weird action in currencies and metals today... Blanky running the stops...

Lord Blankfiend said...

We will not rest until all volume and volatility have been eradicated.

mcHAPPY said...

Enough catching your breath, Bucky. Time to start running again.

Karen said...

Rolling One Year Return Hits 68%

Leftback said...

C'mon BUCK. Do it for AMERICA, and CANADA. Hell, do it for BRITAIN too.

Leftback said...

Come on folks and buy those delicious crispy new 3y Ts.

FULL FAITH AND CREDIT. Seriously. Timmy said so.

Leftback said...

This really is an unmitigated disaster of unparalleled proportions. Who on earth is going to look after these people? [What's that, oh.. me!]

Penniless Middle Class Retirees

CV said...

@karen (12:39)

That's the first time I've ever seen you use an "integer" to express a level...

Usually you're more PRECISE than that...

68%? Come on girl... You're letting the boredom seep in... Dig deeper! :-)

call me ahab said...

CV-

the 2nd trust company has to drop their lien in a short sale situation or no short sale- but why would they do that if they got zero in return?

if I was holding the 2nd trust- I wouldn't-

better legally than illegally however-

in many cases the 2nd trust company can get a deficiency judgement for the unpaid amount- especially if it was not a purchase money 2nd-

but getting a judgement and getting paid are two different things

bob-

in the link you posted- essentially bribery- being paid by the agents to the lien holder to let the deal go through-

wouldn't be able to show that on a HUD- although I am sure a buyer if so inclined could pay the total deficiency and it would still be legal-

not sure about a negotiated payment though

CV said...

@ahab

"the 2nd trust company has to drop their lien in a short sale situation or no short sale- but why would they do that if they got zero in return?"

because Bwaney Fwank tells them to...

Onlooker said...

Retail traders are buying calls hand over fist today.

ISEE Sentiment Index

The all equity value is hitting 300 today which is in nosebleed territory. It was quite high yesterday too. Beware

Leftback said...

You can cut the complacency with a knife.... it is that thick.

Karen said...

'On the Edge' Banks Face Writedowns on FDIC Auctions

note to self: believe it when you see it.

call me ahab said...

gotta roll- all have a great day-

in fact it's a beautiful day 60+ degrees DC metro-

CV- you should be sitting on your deck!

later all

I-Man said...

Getting closer...

Leftback said...

3y auction passed without incident

Total Amount $40 B
Bid/Cover 3.13
Yield Awarded 1.437%

FWIW, we do not like the short end.

Mack said...

@ Leftback
wouldnt a longer, steeper yield curve support the market advancing?

CV said...

HERE'S WHAT CV IS SEEING - (actually, to be honest, only DREAMING ABOUT, at the moment) - NEW CHART IN THREAD ABOVE

Leftback said...

It would. We see the curve flattening as the inventory rebuild fades into a New Normal of slow growth and well-contained inflation, and risk is allowed to seep back into the market via Fed withdrawal from ABS markets.

DL said...

Ahab @ 11:49

$100M.

This is even more ridiculous than the case of the woman who spilled McDonald’s coffee on herself.

Leftback said...

+1.6% on our TBT position, we will roll up the stops later on today.

The steepener is on today but it is always on when they are auctioning the short end, as traders sell the long end. The trade will reverse on Thursday if not before.

Karen said...

another RE bear..

"Dumping the so-called dirt bonds at a discount was a better bet, the Boston-based Metzold said, than taking over 218 empty acres (88 hectares) from the project’s builder and waiting for a real-estate rebound that may not come until the early 2030s, according to a Moody’s Economy.com forecast."

CV said...

In case you people were wondering about what to do with your portfolios...

I just calculated that based on the trajectory since 1044, the S&P will be at ALL TIME HIGHS by June 30th (end of fiscal year)...

So you go that going for you...

Things are definitely looking up because you'd have had to wait until OCTOBER to get to all time highs before the January pullback...

DL said...

CV @ 1:29

Maybe you should lighten up on your short positions. It's affecting your thinking.

CV said...

@DL

Just pointing out the absurdity of the chart patterns...

CV said...

@DL

...and it's NOT MY THINKING that's making them print themselves that way...

We can get that straight right off the bat...

mcHAPPY said...

Seems the DXY is having trouble breaking out of the upper channel from the downward channel we've been in the last number of trading days.

COME ON BUCKY, YOU CAN DO IT!

CV said...

@DL

NEW CHART ABOVE IN THREAD... OR, I SUPPOSE THIS TYPE OF TRAJECTORY LOOKS PERFECTLY UNDERSTANDABLE TO SOME

McFearless said...

"Maybe you should lighten up on your short positions. It's affecting your thinking."

Well that's interesting, is that to imply that being long right now would not impact your thinking?

Trying to understand why a statement like that is made....before I go making a dismissive comment.

DL said...

No comment, McF

Leftback said...

DO IT BUCKY. DO IT FOR MY SANITY......

Karen said...

XLF is looking a lot like it did the first week of Jan.. one penny shy of the 15.40 high..

Leftback said...

If I hear about the cash on the sidelines one more time I am gonna puke..

CV said...

@karen

That's a good catch there, but I'll tell ya...

It seems that everything is taking out the january highs one by one...

You had the RUT last week, the $TRAN today, everything seems to be following in step...

The thing is... FWIW - Bulls are using all that to add to the 'bullish' excitement...

All I still see are low volume UP days, and high volume on the selling...

I don't feel 'trapped' here being short...

CV said...

It's just annoying, more than anything else...

Leftback said...

Wednesday is usually rest day after Magic Manipulation Monday, Turnaround Tuesday, and before Thirsty Thursday and Freaky Friday.

Oil inventory build? You would think so, after the warm weather, unless Blanky has been pumping it all into his basement again.

Commodities seem primed to puke, with the dollar steady at least, US weather warmer and GATA in full apoplectic frenzy. Tomorrow.

Karen said...

just saw the aig headline.. shares leap 17%.. gotta be short covering..

McFearless said...

LB,

That's the OLD bullish argument, the new bullish argument is that the cash has all gone to bond funds, not the sidelines, surely it will move to equities.....we'll say at some point in the next 2 years, I think that's how the thesis goes.

right?

Right?

bob said...

My limited knowledge of Dow theory-

Doesn't a new high on the transports have to be confirmed with a new high on the industrials?

I-Man said...

What is Dow Theory?

.
.
.


Just kidding.

Karen said...

no worries.. spx and indu will not make it to new highs.. beware the trap door..

McFearless said...

This is the new saying in retail:

"I'm cautiously optimistic"

Gives the advisor the same sort of out that the "nobody can time the markets" statement does.

Like this:

I'm cautiously optimistic that bulls will drive the market to infinity.

I-Man said...

That a girl Karen...

I love the moxie.

I know you're right, too.

Karen said...

bob, you could say today's high in $tran confirmed the $indu high of 10729 set in january..

DL said...

CV,

Last year, as the SPX rose from 825 to 875, I was short stocks. The experience caused some weird effects on my thinking.

. . . . .

I don't want to make mountains out of mole hills.

bob said...

Again, limited knowledge-

Aren't the transports supposed to lead that? Then the ind confirms it?

Karen said...

UPDATE: Anadarko To Buy Back $1B Of Debt, Plans Note Sale
2:11 PM ET 3/9/10 | Dow Jones
Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC) plans to buy back up to $1 billion of its outstanding debt, saying it will sell $750 million in 30-year notes to help fund the purchases.

The oil and natural-gas exploration and production company is launching two tender offers to cut its leverage level. It will buy all of its $950 million of 6.75% senior notes due 2011 that are tendered. Any leftover money will go toward the repurchase of up to three note series maturing in 2011 and 2012, of which there are a combined $925 million outstanding. The purchase price will be determined by the yield on U.S. Treasurys on Monday.

bob said...

The trans put in a new high in 2008, the ind never confirmed it. We know the rest.

Karen said...

Bob, Dow Theory wikied..

mcHAPPY said...

@DL 2:11

I am in the same sort of boat - except my vice is oil. You learned faster than me though.

mcHAPPY thinks it is pretty clear the short term right now is extremely debatable. Medium term is somewhat debatable. Long term is no debate - the ship is going down.

In another couple of weeks we can put closure to this debate as the new debate begins, and the current debate of the time rages on.

Ahhhhh, clarity in perfect hindsight vision.

AmenRa said...

bob

Industrials lead transports. If the indu makes a new high but is not confirmed by the trans then the bull market has not begun. Or something like that.

DL said...

High yield bonds are not for wimps.

CV said...

@DL

I'm short SPX with 60% and 40% cash in holding...

My "cost basis" for my short position, is 1131...

I hardly think I've reached the "psychotic" stage yet...

AmenRa said...

Tick tock. Tick tock. Something has to give.

CV said...

@LB

"Cash on the sidelines" - EXPLAINED

Cash on the Sidelines!

Cash on the Sidelines! - In Folsom Prison

Karen said...

look at bac if you want some negative divergence..

DL said...

"I hardly think I've reached the "psychotic" stage yet"

.............

If/when you do, you won't know it.

We will let you know if we see warning signs.

I-Man said...

Remember this Cvienne?

"Be cool, and come down off the ledge, I-Man..."

Those words will haunt me for ever.

McFearless said...

DL,

I'd argue HY are "wimpy-er" than Floating Rate funds....How about a HY Munis.

@LB,

Yes, understood, simply pointing out that many are using that as a "cash on the sidelines" argument, that so much money has gone into bonds.

CV said...

Oops, bad link from that 2nd one...

Cash on the Sidelines! - In Folsom Prison

That's JOHNNY Cash, so we're clear about things...

bob said...

"To Dow, a bull market in industrials could not occur unless the railway average rallied as well, usually first."

From the wiki, thanks karen.

I listened to a guy talk at length about Dow theory once. Lots of confirmations and non-confirmation confirmations. The one point I do remember very well- "The transports lead the way." In his mind anyway.

Interesting to listen to what the others are thinking.

CV said...

@I-Man

Certainly you guys don't hink I'm "on a ledge here" do you?

But if everyone keeps telling me I am... It's gonna pretty much damn well put me on one... LOL

CV said...

@ben

I'm "cautiously optimistic" that one day I will be worm food... :-)

Karen said...

the day isn't over; nothing will surprise me. especially since the markets have made it this far.

Leftback said...

LB should really just trade Treasuries. We seldom make a major mistake. Added to which, having a massive bond position reduces volatility.

Which is, you know, good for one's sanity. Useful really as SPX will go up 1% every day for the rest of our lives.

Leftback said...

C: I think you're fine. You're just an "Excitable Boy".

DL said...

McF @ 2:27

Isn't it possible that the professional money managers are very bullish, but at the same time, that the J6P's are not?

My sense is that the average Joe is not nearly as bullish as he was in the summer of 2007.

I-Man said...

@ C:

Dont think you're on the ledge at all my man.

CV said...

@DL

If I start coming on here and switching my outlook to BULLISH (based on fundamentals)... That out to be a good sign that I've lost it...

I'm working on my own theory...

DOW(N) - Theory...

McFearless said...

Look, I'm not trying to be C's little sidekick here but as I recall his largest holding is physical gold, so I doubt any short position that's lost money for a few weeks is going to freak him out that much. This is the dude that lives on the farm with all kinds of stored food and a huge tank of Natty in the yard, something tells me without any cash at all he's better prepared than all the rest of us.

Make no mistake you deal with your unconscious on every trade long or short and you need a system that accounts for losses, otherwise you end up having an emotional reaction and flipping your position and you justify it by telling yourself the facts changed, and THAT's why you changed but in the end you just got emotional.

I-Man said...

Someone is going to start peeling off some chunks of SPY here... I-Man can smell it.

I-Man said...

Damn... you got a huge tank of natty on your farm?

I'll help you drink some of that, I love an ice cold Natty after a hard days work on the farm.

bob said...

I agree CV

I was trying to point out that in order for the dow theory people to be able to claim, within their own framework, that the market is going higher they need the confirmation of the higher INDU. And that has to be on volume. Today, transports above average, indu below average.

AmenRa said...

http://www.aar.org/NewsAndEvents/PressReleases/2010/03/030510_RailTraffic.aspx

Rail Carload Freight Reaches Highest Level in More Than a Year
5 Mar 2010

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

For More Information Contact:
AAR Communications 202-639-2100
Holly Arthur harthur@aar.org

Rail Carload Freight Reaches Highest Level in More Than a Year
Broad Range of Commodities Register Gains; Coal Continues to Lag

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Mar. 5, 2010 - Carload freight volume on U.S. railroads reached its highest level in more than a year during the week ended February 27, the Association of American Railroads reported today.

U.S. railroads originated 290,261 carloads during the week ended February 27, up 2.6 percent from the comparable week in 2009 and the highest level reported since the week ended December 6, 2008. However, the total was still down 13.5 percent from comparison week in 2008. In order to offer a complete picture of the progress in rail traffic, AAR now reports 2010 weekly rail traffic with comparison weeks in both 2009 and 2008.

Intermodal traffic of 205,817 trailers and containers reached its highest level so far this year, up 17.5 percent from last year, but down 8.1 percent compared with 2008. Compared with the same week in 2009, container volume increased 23.2 percent and trailer volume fell 6.4 percent. Compared with the same week in 2008, container volume was up 0.5 percent while trailer volume fell 37.5 percent. The comparison week from last year was affected by the Chinese New Year, which has a significant impact on container volume.

Total volume for the week was estimated at 31.6 billion ton-miles, up 3.9 percent from last year but down 10.5 from 2008.

DL said...

CV,

You're a closet gold bug?

CV said...

@DL (2:33)

What difference does it make?

SPY, today, is on pace for another 'torrid' 106 million share day...

That's not MoMo's... That's ALGOS...

Yesterday there was a report of equity fund cash inflows all but dried up...

J6P was NEVER into this rally, and will never BE INTO this rally... He's too busy trying to pay his Visa bill, and put food on the table...

Karen said...

DOW(N) THEORY ! I love it.. meanwhile xlf made it to its previous high of 15.40.. can it better it before the close? i'd prefer a dbl top scenario but i never get what i want.

CV said...

@DL

"Tungsten Bug"...

and that would be "Mr. TUNGSTEN BUG" to you!

or, if I were LB, "Sir Tungsten Bug"

CV said...

@Amen (2:38)

So it was a cold winter in China... and they don't give a holy crap about global warming...

CV said...

@karen

I won't make any remarks about "double tops" around, oh say, the 1101 area...

Karen said...

DL, CV and I are both closet gold bugs.. I thot you knew that!

McFearless said...

DL,

Well you can sense whatever you want but there's actually data for this stuff and it's all bullish. Onlooker pointed some out this morning.

I remember quite well what retail was like in 2007, it's very near what they are like today imo. We had a client with small money here calling a week or so ago asking to buy Greek CDS. What is that? Anecdotal sure, but no more than your statement.

To your point though, of course it's possible, everything is possible, but we don't have sentiment data to go back far enough to look at retail investors attitudes towards stocks when you had this kind of economy (unemployment, no private sector job or wage growth for a decade, etc.) so you really can't draw any kind of conclusion by the fact that Joe's might still generally be afraid.

DL said...

PGM also looks interesting to me. (platinum ETN).

72bat said...

but karen, do you get what you need?

Karen said...

the 30 min spx is at least indicating a few people moving toward the door..

CV said...

@karen

TUNGSTEN BUGS! TUNGSTEN BUGS!

Get your priorities straight! :-)

Karen said...

72bat, sometimes, laughing.

DL said...

McF,

So the clients that you have are interested in taking on risk, but at the same time, you believe it's quite possible that the average Joe's are generally afraid.

O.K., well, I think that those Joe's will eventually come back in, especially after the unemployment rate drops below 7% (whenever that's going to be).

CV said...

@72bat

karen gets what she needs... & then promptly drives it into a stone wall...

Karen said...

72bat, sometimes, laughing..

McFearless said...

Is the site here running really slow for anyone else today?

Karen said...

cv, that was so NOT NICE !

Karen said...

Ben, yes, obviously.. i gave up waiting for my post to take.. maybe it is overloaded!

CV said...

@karen

jk ;-)

@DL

"I think that those Joe's will eventually come back in, especially after the unemployment rate drops below 7% (whenever that's going to be)."

I'll tell you when that's going to be... As soon as we get into the next war and proceed to kill off half the population...

Or, just enact "Logans Run" legislation and kill everyone off at 30...

Leftback said...

Today was a BRIAN rally, WESBURY that is:
Wesbury on Jobs

Up is down, black is white, insolvent is profitable, junk is risk-free and Wesbury is a genius. Hmm....

mcHAPPY said...

@Karen

Thinking about your AIG query earlier and up big today. Could it be b/c they are spinning off/selling parts of the company? Many BTE results are coming due to increase revenue? Just thinking out loud.

Karen said...

"AIG SAYS IT WON'T COMMENT ON UNUSUAL MARKET ACTIVITY."

McFearless said...

DL,

Understand that I'm working with people that haven't lost anything since the peak...that is a different mindset than the majority, so yes, that's exactly what I'm saying, it's not a contradictory statement. My people are starting to think I'm going to stay bearish for too long, they often say, isn't there SOMETHING we could buy?

Leftback said...

"i'd prefer a dbl top scenario but i never get what i want."

Hmm.. LB might be able to rectify that situation, Karen, unless you are talking about abandoned babies.

McFearless said...

It's not what I see with new prospects, like the people I just started working with that had a rep that lost most of the money they had since the peak but never changed a single thing the entire time, those people ONLY want safety.....

Leftback said...

AIG is hilarious, they are selling off all the profit centres leaving the core of maggot-infested AIG FP to rot for the remainder of its ugly life.

AIG common will be worthless. Sorry, HANK. Got bonds?

I-Man said...

Anyone catch the size of the SPY trade at 2:54?

CV said...

@Amen

FWIW - Look at the last 5 min. candles since 14:30 sharp (which was kind of a double top)...

Amen knows the 'secret' significance of 14:30

Leftback said...

Bear markets are all about patience and prudence.

McFearless said...

DL,

lol, I will give you that Joey will probably come back when U3 is below 7% (right....whenver that is....2021?), way AFTER the right time to buy.

Karen said...

I was listening to an analyst (no eye rolling please) discuss AIG on the radio last night.. they are selling their best assets to stay afloat.. and will be reduced to their original business model of being a personal insurer.. did you know AIG was founded in Shanghai in 1919?

Leftback said...

"Anyone catch the size of the SPY trade at 2:54?"

DISTRIBUTION, BABY.... perhaps that was another BRIAN unloading.

* BRIAN SACK, skipper of the PPT.

DL said...

Karen,

LB is rolling his eyes.

Leftback said...

Closed TBT for a profit.

AmenRa said...

CV

It's after 14:30PM EST...

I-Man said...

It went so fast I didnt catch the size, but you can see it in the 1min print, over 1.5 million shares...

Who moves blocks like that? For all to see?

AmenRa said...

CV

Oops. I see you are watching also.

Karen said...

I-Man, i see two on the one min of over 1 million shares... yes one at 1.5 million.. the earlier one looks like 1.25

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