Morning Audibles 3.10.10 - What the hell is a FIB?

FIB? What's a FIB? Here... I'll let "Urban Dictionary" help me out...


FIB
- Fucking Illinois Bastards or occasionally, Fucking Illinois Bitches. Shortened to the acronym "FIB."


FIB
- Annoying individual from Metro Chicago who thinks they're the salt of the earth and everyone who lives in a city of less than 100,000 should bow down and thank them for their presence.


- Dumb individual from Metro Chicago who would pay fortune for something that is actually worth a quarter of what they actually paid.


FIB
- Fill In Boyfriend. When a bf isn't good enough or cannot satisfy his woman in one way or another (bad listener, worse lover) and another man finds himself in the bizarre position of fulfilling all her non-sexual needs.


FIB
- to tell a lie; to be false. To lie right through your fucking teeth.


FIB
- Famous Imaginary Boyfriend. A person of note or celebrity, easily identifiable by others, whom you claim to fancy. An indication of taste and type.


- The female version is FIG, Famous Imaginary Girlfriend.


FIB
Verb – to fib. To be harmonically proportionate in face or body features. Fib could also stand for rapid, exponential growth.




-Fib is short for Fibonacci Series, a series of numbers (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34,....) that show constantly in nature and appear to underlie all processes of organic growth. 


FIB
acronym - Fun In Bed, specifically regarding hot chicks.


You people choose what you wish, but I'll take the RED definition (followed closely by the final definition)...


OK... Here's the MAN OF THE HOUR...




No wait... If I'm true to the last definition... Here's the MAN OF THE HOUR...

All I'm trying to say is this... The dude knows how to party and throw out some serious numbers... The following charts illustrate this...




FIB "Arc" & Gann Angle WEEKLY looks from 1576-666-now


(Note: Sorry, That's meant to say "233" TRADING HOURS since 1150.45 high... CV is, I guess, "high")


(These ranges illustrate the divides between todays move [that occurred PRECISELY at today's 14:30 top - the 233 time sequence number] to various OTHER levels which involve either FIB levels and/or TIMES)


I suppose it depends on where one goes, or who one seeks for synthesis on matters... To some, today might have appeared uninteresting or underwhelming as the case may be... But for now, CV, otoh, takes a look at the FIB of things and says "Hey Bud... Let's party!"









































149 comments:

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Bloomie says British manufacturing fell and German exports declined...yet I see calls for 300k job additions (by some talking heads) for us coming up...

Well, massive day in the salt mine today, maybe later tonight.

Ben22 said...

Figured since some people were discussing it yesterday I'd put a couple of THE Dow Theorists quotes from yesterday here:

"I'm asked whether it makes any difference whether the Dow or the Transport refuse to confirm. The answer is that according to Dow Theory it makes no difference which Average fails to confirm. A non-confirmation is a non-confirmation regardless of whether it's a result of a Dow or a Transport failure."

and this:

"I must say that technically, this is one of the most mixed markets I've ever dealt with. The Dow keeps pushing up, we now have a major non-confirmation, the new highs have topped out, and with it all my PTI goes to new highs. I've often said that "they don't make it easy for you in this business," but the current situation is a brain-jammer."

call me ahab said...

I found this interesting- what to do w/ a city that lost all its glory and half its population?

I grew up in a factory town not too far from Detroit- when International Harvester shut shop in the early 80's unemployment went over 20%- so it is devastating- Detroit never got itself together and has been contracting for decades-

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35780958/

a vision of the future possibly for many of our old factory towns

CV said...

@ben22

Well, if 'sentiment' is what's needed to declare the top of P2, then these headlines, DECLARING VICTORY, should help...

Obama Defies Pessimists as Rising Economy Converges With Stocks
One year after U.S stocks hit their post-financial-crisis low on March 9, 2009, the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has risen more than 68 percent, and it’s up more than 41 percent since Obama took office. Credit spreads have narrowed. Commodity prices have surged. Housing prices have stabilized.

Greek Crisis Is Over, Rest of Region Safe, Prodi Says
“For Greece, the problem is completely over,” said Prodi, in an interview in Shanghai today. I don’t see any other case now in Europe. I don’t think there is any reason to think the euro system will collapse or will suffer greatly because of Greece.”

---

So there you have it...

Obama has made the stock market rise 68%, stabilized housing prices, narrowed credit spreads, and put a bid under commodities... (and to think, he did it in his spare time while he was off getting Peace Prizes) WELL DONE MAN! WELL DONE!

And Greece?

Problem Solved! Over! 3 shorts weeks is all it took!

CV can hardly keep his driveway shoveled, or pen & publish blog threads, I'm not worthy to shine these peoples shoes!

CV said...

@ahab

If you're going to start to bulldoze houses and towns, my vote would be to Start HERE

call me ahab said...

67 riots didn't help either- many of the white folk leaving the city after that-

an interesting counter-trend- Washington DC- a majority black city has been seeing the white population increase substantially over the last decade or so-

from Wiki-

" the city's Caucasian population has steadily increased, in part due to effects of gentrification in many of Washington's traditionally black neighborhoods.[11] This is evident in a 7.3% decrease in the African-American population, and a 17.8% increase in the Caucasian population since 2000.[13] In addition, some African Americans are going to the South in a New Great Migration, because of family ties, increased opportunities and lower cost of living."

AmenRa said...

re: Greece

Using a baseball analogy the game hasn't even started. The players are still out on the field stretching.

CV said...

@Amen

Using a baseball analogy...

"The outlook wasn't brilliant for the Mudville nine that day..."

and, Casey is at the Bat...

call me ahab said...

CV @ 9:00-

I have always liked DC- make it into the city quite a bit- even like the White House- sometimes I see Michelle out there toiling n the garden- lol

and the Mall area is a great place to be on a warm Spring day-

you have to admit that

CV said...

@ahab

Don't get me wrong... I love DC! I was born there...

I'm just making a joke about the current state of affairs with our elected leaders...

Maybe they could just bulldoze K Street...

Karen said...

How will you ever top this post, CV? and Ben, thanks for a dose of RR.. oh, and good morning!

CV said...

@karen

You didn't know Fibonacci was such a party animal did you? :-)...

call me ahab said...

well- the way I see it CV- once Health Care is passed-

nirvana-

sure am glad the Bama wants to "transform" (his words) the U.S.- I guess we sucked before

Karen said...

have you all seen this?!

Regulators tell US banks to hold funds
By Justin Baer and Francesco Guerrera in New York
Published: March 9 2010 22:30 | Last updated: March 9 2010 22:30
US regulators have told banks not to increase dividends or buy back shares until political and economic uncertainty surrounding the industry dissipates, in a move that will delay by months the return of capital to shareholders.

Some investors in financial stocks argue that winners of the credit crisis, such as JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, have profitable businesses and strong balance sheets and should consider raising dividends or buying back stocks.

McFearless said...

Hey C, I really enjoyed this post this morning. That said, no love for Pythagoras?

"Numberless are the world's wonders."
-Sophocles

CV said...

@karen

FWIW tho...

I'm soberly beginning to contemplare higher counts on this...

On the "smaller" of the FIBO Arcs, it appears that 1180 could be a possibility...

I was reading DANERIC as well, and he has some counts that show that as a possibility...

Thing is though, even Daneric suggests that to get that high, you'd need an A-B-C and we're probably just tracing the end of the A (which could be anywhere - yesterdays high - or all the way up to say 1158)...

But he thinks you'd need a backtest of 1116 & 1125 for that to occur (go to 1180)... So there's still time to contemplate these things...

CV said...

@ben

I just need to get me some "camera phone" shots of Pythagoras partying up in his babe lair...

Karen said...

sorry, from the FT but you must be registered (free) to see.

CV said...

@ahab

"STEALTH"care...

AmenRa said...

Karen

That's because they know the balance sheets are a joke. Until there are better rules to deal with derivatives I'd keep the banks at bay also.

Karen said...

and as rumored yesterday, pumping the financial sector:

Barclays eyes large US bank deal
By Patrick Jenkins and Megan Murphy in London
Published: March 9 2010 20:58 | Last updated: March 10 2010 14:15
Barclays is looking at buying a large US retail bank as it tries to rebalance its business away from a booming investment banking franchise.

According to people briefed on the plan, Antony Jenkins, the new head of Barclays’ retail banking activities, is preparing a strategy paper that will go to the board in the next two to three months.

CV said...

@karen

How can they be expected to pay dividends when they have to pay all those "bonuses" first?

Come on... get with the program!

call me ahab said...

here is what has been crossing my mind lately-

renting my house- fully furnished- zero mortgage- and taking the $3000 mth rent or so and travel around for a couple years-

my daughter may be upset- but there is always email- right?

besides her mother is a mile up the road- so it wouldn't be the end of the world

I'll just say- "daddy needs some down time"

Karen said...

sit down before reading and have a sip of kool-aide:

Bank rally leads financials higher
9:43 AM ET 3/10/10 | Marketwatch

U.S. financial stocks headed higher on Wednesday morning, led by banks large and small. Citigroup shares rose 4.6% amid a few bits of news, including reports of strong demand for an issue of trust preferred securities it is selling, and plans that it has to double its private banker staff in North America in the next few years. Other banks atop the gainers list included Zions Bancorp , Huntington Bancshares , SunTrust , Fifth Third , Regions Financial and Bank of America . American International Group was the only non-bank in the top 10 sector gainers. The insurer, which rose sharply on Tuesday, added another 7.7% in early action. The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF , which tracks all the financial stocks in the S&P 500, added 0.6%. The KBW Bank ETF added 1.5% while its sibling the KBW Regional Banking ETF added 0.6%.

McFearless said...

We discussed here the chance that all derivatives would eventually be banned during the bear market....we are getting closer and closer...patience.

Karen said...

Ben, i believe that would initially ignite a 3-4% upside rally..

CV said...

@karen (9:49)

Well what's happening is this... The chatter has been all about this SPY rally being on ZERO VOLUME...

So what they're doing is taking all the high float, bankrupt, single digit midgets (C, AIG, FRE, FNM, etc.) out for a spin...

Then, at the end of the day, CNBC reports "Look! 9 billion shares traded on the NYSE today! This rally is FOR REAL!"...

Karen said...

ahab, i've had similar thots.. altho, selling my house vs renting it.. and there is text in addition to email..

CV said...

@karen

Its real tempting to look at all these headlines and want to get on board with another quick 3-4% upside...

But I feel it would get erased just as fast...

Besides, I don't think it's possible to launch that way without going back and covering up 1116 & 1125...

What's SURELY coming are the CENSUS job additions... In the first week of April, they mat report "x" number of jobs added to the economy...

THAT may be the rally to sell into...

McFearless said...

Karen,

I agree, it wouldn't come though until after things are tanking again, a nice 3-4% pop on the announcment that "speculators will be stopped as derivatives are banned" "market safe mom and pop again" and once again you'll hear cries of how "they" changed the trend, which NEVER happens,.... and then we would resume a decline shortly thereafter.

Anyway,

When was it last year that those stocks (C, AIG, etc) were rallying hard, was it right after the July drop? I don't have the stomach to pull up charts on those POS's.

call me ahab said...

karen-

appears you are a kindred spirit-

anyway- gotta roll- all have a "most excellent" day

CV said...

@ben

"Those POS"

Oh it gets worse...

The headlines in the paper are all about how the US government could now SELL its Citi stake and pocket $4 billion...

See what a great INWESTMENT it was?

Sowing seeds for QE2... See people, government bailouts WORK!

CV said...

That's how it goes ben...

US Government "borrows" money (which it will TAX US citizens later to payback, with interest)...

Money is put into an insolvent institution with fraudulent balance sheet...

Share price hyped and sold off to MoMos putting citizens money at risk...

Government recoups the investment (but does it retire the debt? NO! It uses it as a slush fund)...

McFearless said...

C,

Everyone is bullish, I wouldn't expect anything less from the headlines. We discussed last spring that towards the top of P2 government would be taking credit for the bailouts and saving the economy.

Here we are....

As I said yesterday, the only real question to ask yourself now is if the facts changed or if you need to justify an emotional reaction to what is going on by pretending the facts changed.

I-Man said...

@ Ben

There are alot of smart people who I respect that sadly have defaulted to "pretending the facts changed."

It really bums me out.

I'm sure some of it is me taking it personally that someone would take Ken Fisher's view over mine, and determine that its all good, just keep buying stocks, and let the V shaped recovery show how dumb all those "pessimists" are. Fisher is calling for 10-30% gains across the board this year in equities...

I-Man is calling for a move into the 800s.

Someone is the kook, and I dont think its me.


BTW-

CV, the Gann Arc chart is one of the coolest things I've ever seen.

AmenRa said...

Todays market action doesn't bode well for the 1oYR auction.

Karen said...

i know, i-man! i too am crazy for the arcs..

Wholesale inventories for January decreased 0.2%, which is a surprise since the consensus had called for a 0.2% increase. The drop in production could give way to an increase in production, but lower inventory levels undermine GDP growth. As an aside, wholesale inventories for December were revised lower to reflect a 1.0% decrease. (from briefing.com)

CV said...

@I-Man

Do have one of those for your charts?

I imposed two things...

- A Gann Angle
- & a FIB Arc

I'm looking at one right now, that way, for a Citi chart...

It kind of implied, time & pricewise... Citi tops out here sometime this week between $4 and, say $4.17...

But I just "look" at it... I ain't into trading Citi...

McFearless said...

Well I-man, each time I've seen Fisher speak he had a very involved thesis, as I recall it went something like:

The steeper the decent then the steeper the ascent. And, We need MORE debt.

Very well thought out thesis there.

I'd remind you though, it was you that called this a dummy's market last year, a description I found to be pretty accurate. Perhaps the dummy drill will last for a while longer. It's the same game we played from 03-07, so we are now a year in, it won't last as long this time.

CV said...

@ben

Denninger had a great rant this morning on DEBT...

(Specifically - Prodi's comments on Greece)

I-Man said...

@ C-

No... thats a toy I have not played with yet...

Did you do those on your Prophet charts?

I-Man said...

Whats crazy to me is that I'd never even heard of this Gann fellow until a week or so ago at AM's blog.

BUT... I've been drawing his "angles" on charts for awhile now not knowing that they followed any preset degree definition.

I would really like to overlay some of those arcs and angles over some of my charts to see if there is corellation there.

Just to keep me "on point."


The Arcs are totally new to me as well.

Gann must have been a pretty cool dude. Have to do some research on him.

CV said...

@I-Man

No, I don't have a PAID subscription to the Prophet Charts...

The only real reason I use the Prophet Charts sometimes is that I can get an expanded chart (which illustrates future dates)...

It helps me to carry trendlines forward and get an eye as to the "visualization" of the pattern...

CV said...

@I-Man

That's why I call my TA a "SOUP"

I use all these methods, fibs, ganns, EW's, straight trendlines...

Sometimes when you overlay a few of them, you see what you're missing...

Usually, you just see what you F***ED UP :-)

I-Man said...

I can see where having access to these types of tools could be very useful around major capitulation lows and major highs...

Especially if you have the ability to, as you put it, visualize, future price in time.

I-Man said...

Sometimes I wish there was a Plato's Chart Academy where we could all just hang out and get dirty on this stuff.

I-Man said...

@ Ra

Could it really be just as simple as a bad 10y auction?

We're getting kinda close to that 3.9 level huh?

CV said...

@Amen

You're right...

I guess nobody is interested in attracting any buyers for any 10 year notes...

Too many of these bright shiny stocks...

Look here people.... STOCKS! Yummy!

I-Man said...

JINX

CV said...

@I-Man

What it helps MOST on, IMO, is in seeing when a break is false...

AmenRa said...

Unless they already know the direct bidders are going to take up the slack in demand.

Anonymous said...

Another cheap alternative is to take screen shots and print them onto graph paper. Staples sells it cheap in book form. Don't worry about buying the most expensive stuff.

Remove the borders and leave the dates and prices.

ctrl + printscreen and a lightwieght photo editor (irfanview) lets you paste the screen shot and crop what you want.

Just worry about getting the paper in the printer square, the graph grids are just guides for drawing by hand.

Just how I roll. I prefer drawing by hand in pencil.

bob

Anonymous said...

For just a moment, let me dream of being Hugh "Fibonacci" Hefner, not an exposed bear....

CV said...

The SPY is very close to taking out the January highs, but the cash is lagging back...

Anonymous said...

Still about 140 pts shy of the highs on the $indu.

I have decided to make my weekly religion DOW(N) theory.

bob

Anonymous said...

SPY is due for a dividend.

bob

CV said...

Musings from Art Cashin

AmenRa said...

Just realized there is a "lookahead period" in my chart prefs. Yay!

CV said...

Well there you have it...

SPY took out the January high...

AmenRa said...

EURJPY up, EURUSD up, WTI up, DXY down, 10YR YLD UP UP UP.

Karen said...

great todd harrison:

The cumulative imbalances have been building for many years and the true source of stress -- untenable debt, excessive leverage, wildfire derivatives and reactive policies -- won't magically disappear with the wave of a regulatory wand. True medicine that cures the disease -- as opposed to synthetic drugs that mask the symptoms -- will only arrive when we swallow the bitter pill of debt destruction.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-witch-hunt-widens-on-wall-street-2010-03-10

Karen said...

diamonds haven't bettered yesterday's high.. it should be easy to manipulate that..if there were a manipulator..

Karen said...

well, i can't get stockcharts to expand into the future.. i just tied by setting my own start and end dates but it default-stops to today.

I-Man said...

Diamonds are forever... they wont leave in the night got no fear that they might... desert me.

Anonymous said...

SPY is pregnant with at least a .50 dividend due next friday. The last was .59. No announcement yet that I can find.

bob

CV said...

@karen

I think there is a feature on Stockcharts that you can expand...

There is a dropdown menu that lets you ADD a number of bars...

I've used it before when I want to annotate a chart... But the problem is that it tends to scrunch up the other bars...

I don't like the visual look of it...

The best way, IMO, is to use the free java charts from:

http://www.prophet.net/analyze/javacharts.jsp

Karen said...

just added the earthquake site to my bookmarks bar.. 3 quakes in the last 2.5 days of 3 to 4 magnitude right around me..

CV said...

@karen (11:34)

You know you just invited LB right in, with that comment :-)

LB sighting 'imminent'!

I-Man said...

A little more disty in store for today?

That was a peculiar SPY trade a minute or so ago...

Not the real Leftback said...

oh karen, you don't need that bookmark, all you need is me to shake and move your world

McFearless said...

another bull market icon is found dead.

Corey Haim of The Lost Boys, etc.

This is really quite amazing to see as a student of Socionomics.

CV said...

Not the real futbol ref says...

"This is NOT REALLY a yellow card I'm booking here in your honor"

I-Man said...

Corey had issues...

Like many of those "child stars"... cocaine as a teenager leads to no good.

Karen said...

CV, thanks for the prophet link.. i will check it.. can't find a way to expand the stockcharts chart.. hmm, they have so many options, too..

something tells me lb had an exceedingly late night.. maybe with the gals featured above?! he'll show at the close and brag, i'm sure.

CV said...

@karen

I didn't even notice it until this morning when I looked again...

Those girls aren't wearing any tops... They're PAINTED ON...

Sort of like the KT (at the moment)...

Karen said...

well I noticed right away.. beautifully done, too. better than fabric!

CV said...

@karen

In STOCK CHARTS...

In the area just under the chart itself is a place where it says "Chart Attributes"

Periods - Range - Bar - Gap - (Then there is a last box that says EXTRA BARS)...

You have to fill in a number in that box for how much you want the chart to extend further... (10 bars, 20 bars, etc.)....

Not the real Leftback said...

something tells me lb had an exceedingly late night.. maybe with the gals featured above?! he'll show at the close and brag, i'm sure.

Ah-ha - a twinge of jealousy! So, my dear, you do care!

CV said...

@ben

You know, I just came up with a brainstorm...

I was reading Daneric this morning, and he was commenting on something like AAPL being "the" sort of bellweather for P2 peak sentiment...

Basically he was saying, "when that rolls over, the rest should too"...

Now follow me on this... he was also saying that it ought to accompany some sort of NEWS HEADLINE (but didn't say anything else)...

Think about it... IPAD hits the shelves on April 3rd... That's a SATURDAY, the day AFTER the Jobs report for March (which may, actually, show a couple hundred thousand jobs ADDED due to Census work)...

So put all the headlines together...

- NFP +300,000 jobs (employment back - coast is clear)
- IPAD launch (look how innovative we are - nothing can hold us back)
- Next week EARNINGS reports (of course all the banks are going to lead the charge with record profits - some may even announce hiring)
- Next week, probably, even a revision to Q4GDP...

Yada Yada Yada...

Can't get much better than that! Come on people , BUY SOME STOCKS!

I-Man said...

Sure would be nice to see this turn into a down 2%er...

My first take is that it will, but I've been faked so many times before, I'm starting to doubt my own self...

CV said...

@I-Man

Gaps to fill...

1132

1122

1116

1076

Anonymous said...

CV, thanks for the Citi comment. I own some some C and its in green!

Nothing wrong with making some money.

Anonymous said...

Loonie parity with USD by summer- CIBC.

Karen said...

found it CV, thanks!

Anon on cando.. only way is if crude gets to $100 again or higher..

Tyler said...

Anon on cando.. only way is if crude gets to $100 again or higher..

I'll take the other side of that bet -- after all, its March, and the ides of rate hike expectations are nearly upon us

CV said...

@anon (12:20)

Well remember nobody ever makes or loses any money on anything until they SELL something...

Also... EVERYONE OWNS CITI... The US Taxpayer owns Citi via a "margin account"... The government, without their approval, bought Citi "on margin" on their behalf...

Your grandkids will get the "margin call" on that borrowed money... Hopefully they won't have to pay too much for it...

DL said...

CV,

More body painting images, please.

Anonymous said...

Are equity bears taking big positions in this market anymore or have they been beaten into submission? It seems we are left with two classes of investors: bulls and the incredulous on the sidelines. I guess algos count as a third class -- can't forget them.

Karen said...

A Picture Shrieks a Thousand Slurs.. plus BC&TSK at Anon Monetarist.

Karen said...

perhaps the most classic candle of all time on C today.. one for the chart books, anyway.. then, again, it would appear that the financial industry has nine lives.

Karen said...

filling in for lb:

Treasury Auction Attracts Strong Interest 1:30 PM ET 3/10/10 | Briefing.com
Stocks have started to recover from their recent retreat. Meanwhile, Treasuries remain under moderate pressure in the wake of a $21 billion auction of 10-year Notes. The auction drew a yield of nearly 3.74% in a bid-to-cover ratio of almost 3.5, which is above recent averages. Meanhwile, the indirect take was 35.1%, but that was below recent averages.

DL said...

Ritholtz has a post today (@ 7:18 AM) about how people who are buying muni bonds are betting on bailouts, and that the yields on those bonds don't adequately reflect the actual risk involved.

CV said...

@karen

kind of looks like the 10/14/09 candle on Citi...

But that was AFTER quarterly earnings reporting...

CV said...

The 8/21, 9/22, & 9/29 candles started out that way, then went higher through earnings season...

Karen said...

AM being scary/good.

CV said...

@karen

Anytime anybody talks about current P/E ratios I want to tear my hair out...

Remove "mark to fantasy" accounting and thise PE's would be astronomical!

Not the real Leftback said...

filling in for lb

umm, ... er...um... using all powers of self constraint .... must not give in to juvenile temptation .....

DL said...

One of the problems is, there's at least a half-dozen versions of P/E

I-Man said...

@ DL

Totally.

I-Man said...

Just tell me how much cash they have in the bank...

All that matters.

If I were an "investor"... which I aint, I would be way more balance sheet centric, than income statement...

If you follow.

Karen said...

One of the problems is smoke and mirror accounting.. and just as a woman's age/weight.. always understated!

Anonymous said...

Any significance to the new lion, I-Man?

McFearless said...

@C,

I don't agree with Daneric about Apple. I would rather see big headlines like this:

"The banks are back"

"Is it time to put your money with this man" (picture of Lispy Lloyd, or the far more good looking, James Dimon)

"Why banks are undervalued"

"Citi looks ready to explode, and these hedge funds agree"

Stuff like that (all over, not here and there) and based on many of the links Karen put up today and yesterday we have to be very close, perhaps only days away before we start seeing that begin.

The sentiment of a Primary Wave 2 (if that is indeed what this is) in a huge degree bear market like this should match the excess sentiment expressed at the top of the fifth wave (some sort of fractal representation). In many ways I think you could argue that a lot of the move in Aapl in particular was legit, though I can point to hundreds of banks that were almost entirely built on excess optimism, if that makes sense. Certainly you could argue there was a great deal of exuberance around tech stocks, but I ask myself what would represent a more excessive type mood at the top, would it be Joe Retail liking aaple, or is it Joe liking BAC, C, and AIG.

I think it's the banks that would represent a more extreme retail optimism, and would be a better topping sign. Just my opinion of course. Like everything, time will tell.

bob said...

"The number of chief executives who left their posts surged in February to the highest level since September 2008, when the economy was rocked by the financial crisis.

Chief executive departures jumped 48% to 132 in February, from 89 in January, according to a report out Wednesday from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., an outplacement consultancy. That's the highest level of turnover in the corner office since 140 CEOs left office in September, 2008.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/In-February-chief-executives-cnnm-1537424669.html?x=0

I-Man said...

@ Anon

"No matter where we go, we are the lions in this kingdom."

-Burning Spear

McFearless said...

If I were an executive I'd def. be getting out. My biz partner and I just said over lunch it'd probably be smartest for us just to sell our books right now.....

mcHAPPY said...

Anyone stupid enough to go along with mcHAPPY and say we have a triple top in crude?

(crickets)

Didn't think so. Wish mcHAPPY luck.

CV said...

@ben

The thing about it is...

If you apply that P2 logic to the banks... I mean hell, the XLF hasn't even retraced 38.2% from peak to trough... You'd need the XLF up in the 18's... or near 22 for a 50% retrace...

That would suggest we have a long way to go still in P2...

CV said...

Unless you want to think of it more like a NASDAQ type recovery, where even after 5 years, NASDAQ never even made it to 38.2%...

Karen said...

i really don't want to see 10590 exceeded.. it will break the downtrend line from yesterday just after 1pm..

CV said...

The last 4 daily VIX candles oddly resemble the candles from 1/11 to 1/19...

Gap down... Followed by a few candles in the same area... The only difference is the types of "wicks" on those candles...

CV said...

I mean, I was kind of surprised to even see the VIX around here... I expected it to be lower...

SPY GREEN 15 out of 17 days, and now 9 days in a row...

Stocks NEVER GO DOWN... Why should anybody be afraid?

Leftback said...

KAREN, you filled in for me delightfully, remind me to return the favour at some point in the future....

Leftback said...

The auction was strong, indeed. Augurs well for tomorrow's 30y demand.

Karen said...

Happy, sorry, missed your comment.. a few days ago, last week i guess, i was telling somebody (72bat?) that 60 looked imminent.. even if i had traded this better, i would still be red on it cause i buy in tranches down.
unfortunately, i do have crickets in my kitchen..

Leftback said...

and small earthquakes as well? How exciting...

CV said...

Karl Denninger new post:

50% of the federal budget right now goes to entitlements.

This last month we posted a record $220.9 billion budget deficit. We took in $107 billion but spent $328 billion.

Isn't that special. We only funded 32% of expenditures?

Remember - entitlements were half of that $328 billion.

So let's see if we can do the math here.

Entitlements were about $164 billion last month in spending. The rest was, of course, the rest.

But we only took in $107 billion.

So even if we eliminated all entitlement spending we still did not have enough money to cover the rest.

Yeah.

If you want to know why the market is floating higher it's for the same reason you feel all giddy and special when you strike out on the town with your shiny plastic. You have magic cards!

It doesn't matter if you have a job, it doesn't matter if you have any money in the bank, so long as you have magic cards.

For how long does the United States continue to have magic cards?

Remember, from my ticker the other day, the federal government is directly spending 9% more of GDP today than it was just two years ago.

The market and economy are absolutely dependent on the Federal Government continuing to do so. Should the government not be able (or willing) to continue to do so, S&P 666 or DOW 6,489 will look like a bull market.

Now add to this that the continued spending in this fashion inevitably will cause interest rates to rise. It simply must, whether that interest rate increase comes from actual Treasuries, or whether it comes from dollar devaluation and thus causes oil - and by extension virtually every other price in the market - to rise at a meteoric rate.

Oh, and if they choose the second (inflation)? Then, as I discussed earlier, that entitlement spending, which is set to go parabolic anyway as the boomer retire, will have an afterburner attached to its backside due to the fact that all of these programs are indexed to "inflation", with Medicare in particular being indexed at several multiples of inflation.

But for today, folks, it's "Rally On Garth" - even though all of the above is not conjecture, it's mathematical fact and inevitably must come to pass.

mcHAPPY said...

Karen,

You still feeling the 60 call?

Karen said...

i wasn't clear, again! sorry.. i was looking for a low on dto at 60.. on crude, i see $65 as a target..

DL said...

CV,

And interest payments on the debt constitute a large portion of Federal revenues.

But not to worry. Obama's considering appointing the Zimbabwe finance minister to the Fed.

Leftback said...

Crude has to break down, now does everyone else see weak commodities and a weak dollar at the same time...? If Bucky gets on a roll, then we may see the clavadista d'oro again.

DL said...

Regarding "bucky", I think that EUR and CAD can push a bit higher over the next couple of weeks.

Karen said...

it would be completely remiss, not to mention out of character, for me not to point out the perfect H&S on the 10 min 2 day chart of the $indu.. has a different slant than the spx and compq..

Karen said...

uup and fxe mirror images of each other.. both consolidating before heading in opposite directions.. i'll call it break up and break down in that order.

Karen said...

jcg down nearly 5% on yesterday's earnings..

CV said...

In the UFB department... drum roll...

MFB (Maidenform Bras)...

21 straight green candles... The stock hasn't gone down in over a month... (Even though the two ladies in my photo image above seem to have "short" positions)...

Guess they're getting SQUEEZED!

Karen said...

hilarious, CV.. i was just at laperla.com.. and comparing their offerings at BGs and Neimans.. our brains can't possibly be that connected.

Leftback said...

IF CV was looking at laperla.com I would be slightly surprised.

DL, we voted mainly 1.30 for GBP/USD at Macro Man yesterday.
BTW, Karen, we have a new lady visitor at the other site today.

Leftback said...

XLF seems ripe for profit taking after all the bank ramping this week.
Risk/reward looking good for a swing on FAZ here?

72bat said...

was it dl asking for more body painting images?
here ya go
http://www.oddee.com/item_96591.aspx
particularly like the escher-esque and magritte-like looks

lb - did note that nic from macro-manb has made an appearance at the other site

DL said...

I'd rather buy in-the-money XLF puts, or short out-of-the money XLF calls.

DL said...

72bat,

Sensual and artistic at the same time.

The elephant one is funny.

I-Man said...

Knew I recognized her from somewhere...

Karen said...

my faz was momentarily green yesterday and may be at today's close.. only 2k shares.. lol.. it finds lower lows every day tho..

McFearless said...

C,

I apply sentiment different than that. The fact that so many would get bullish the banks NOW, while only seeing a weak retrace compared to so many other indexes is EXACTLY the kind of sentiment we want to see.

A complete disreguard for the fact that the banks are lagging and are still in trouble iow. Yes Apple might have an outrageous P/E, but Citi,... they might not even be solvent!

Even Joe knows Apple has done just fine through all of this, buying that story with the banks (that everything is fine) takes a different kind of social mood than getting long Apple here. This is just my opinion. I like Dan a lot, but he told this story about Bidu before and I actually think Andy has him questioning himself big time right now, you can see it in his writings since AT chewed him out some the last few weeks, not sure if you caught that or not.

My take is this all begins and ends with deflation, and the banks will tell us the best story of the attitude towards that outcome, after all, it was social mood that allowed credit to expand, and it is social mood that will make it contract.

RP wrote a paper last April about what would happen with sentiment, most of the claims he made at the time seemed like they would take forever to reach given the social mood in February and March 2009 and how optimistic he was saying it was going to get, but it only took about 6.5 months into mid September for us to get a lot of the same sentiment extremes we saw in 2007. I don't think a 50% retrace is a prerequisite for having extreme sentiment towards the banks. All that said, maybe it does need to retrace 50%, sentiment can extend on at an extreme for a long ass time, look at what the dollar did last year. I'll use the wave count first and then see where the sentiment lines up.

Hope this makes sense, very distracted today.

McFearless said...

speaking of magic, perhaps some day I'll be as good at it as

Gob Bluth.....

DL said...

Karen,

I think you're the only one here who bothers with that that money-sucking instrument.

Leftback said...

FAZ is strictly for one-night stands, as far as LB is concerned.

DL said...

One thing I don't like about one-night stands is that it generates a lot of paperwork at tax reporting time.

(One advantage of futures trading).

McFearless said...

If nobody knows Gob Bluth, here's a taste:

Gob: [Looks at dollar bills] Oh, I don't have any drugs for sale, unless... did you want me to follow you to your car?
Employee: They're your tips...
Gob: Tips...
Narrator: And Gob realized he'd accidentally worked a day in his life.

I'd highly suggest Arrested Development if you have never seen it. It's a great illustration of the GIB.

Leftback said...

No Bond Report until late today, LB has stuff to do.
Of course, perhaps Karen will fill in for me again....?

Karen said...

A Discouraging Undertone..

DL said...

Karen,

The market, or the boarish commentators?

Karen said...

A Discouraging Undertone..

(blogspot hates me!)

Leftback said...

Bearish, boarish, or boorish?
We're just keeping ourselves amused... later, peeps.

Karen said...

$vix managed an + 3.35% move.. QQQQ people hedging the nasdaq high? where is andy to say this will all end in tears..

Karen said...

and with $BKX confirming that all is well...

Karen said...

okay, i'm leaving.. don't talk about me while i'm gone, pls.

I-Man said...

Well, what would be the fun in that?

Then you wouldnt have anything to catch up on later...

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