Morning Audibles 3.4.10 - Dumpster Dive? Well it IS 'Oscar' week!

Bears have been undoubtedly been saying to themselves this past week. "How long can this charade last"? I'm speaking of the time it takes for the market to reach certain levels that seem to be PREORDAINED when you combine sophisticated computer ALGOS with printed money that the central banking system effective "steals" from the US taxpayer.


Answer to the above question... As long as it takes... Even though it's tedious (as it is very visible when all sorts of technical indicators start to look "toppy"), it is sort of amusing at the same time. Some like to call it the "Dash for Trash" (where all the crappy little stocks get bought up, such as Ethan Allen up 25% yesterday). Or, I just equate it to that other great American pastime DUMPSTER DIVING.

Mom... the bulls are into the trash again!

Would you like me to erect some apparatus to help you improve your technique?

And in a world with collapsing commercial real estate loans, unemployment, soverign debt default... Well, remember JOHNNY is in the room too...

And I have some charts to add to this thread, but I wanted to get it started first. The charts will give you my next best guess as to when this all might end.

Here's the model I'm working on at the moment. The times are getting tighter. This wedge, (any wedge) can be broken at any given moment, but if what bumps it off is just NOISE, the ALGOS will catch it... Expiration point is the key. After that, and you're ALICE IN WONDERLAND...

Of course even ALICE needs a place to go. So if the previous pattern remains correct (BTW - it is the pattern I've been discussing for 3 weeks now). Here's where we might fall... SOON... Instead, if it continues to wander around, UPWARDS, there's a PLAN B in effect (roughly 1137 on OPEX Friday)... What I like about this idea is that I feel some of the risk that bulls faced getting "short" the market last summer does not hold water here. I'm LESS worried about an explosive move upwards... If there are any bears left, they're completely exhausted by now... Time & boredom are the only real enemies...