Morning Audibles 3.3.10

When I prepare these "Morning Audibles", I basically like to find one simple and key area of focus. One theme that says, this here, more or less accurately describes what's going on. This key unlocks many doors.


Sometimes everything seems to be on cruise control (you find that one thing) and sometimes it doesn't. Lately, (actually for a few weeks now), I've been talking about the idea of the SPX to backtest in the 1116-1126 areas (as there were "chart gaps" to fill). One of them is now filled, the other may be soon.


While it makes you feel good to make a "correct" call on something (especially if you either traded it for profit, or hedged AGAINST it), it also sometimes makes you nervous when the moment of truth arrives. It's like that golfer that has played a wonderful tournament, and a scintillating back 9 on the final day, and he comes up and has to simply 2-putt from 40 feet. In that exact moment, all of a sudden, you can't feel your hands, you see imaginary snakes and alligators between your ball and the hole, and the hole itself shrinks down to about the size of a shot glass.


In golf, you have to WILL yourself to make those two putts. You have to call on every discipline you've ever learned, or practice to make it happen. With the markets, (or your positions) you can't act that way. You can't MAKE something happen. You have to begin to prepare to have a PLAN B in mind. It would sort of like being the golfer and starting to think "well if I three putt this, at least I'll still be in a playoff". That would be the WORST THING EVER for a golfer to think, but might be a handy idea for a TRADER.


I've said before, that I believe the "time" element on reaching (now 1126, or even a throw over to 1130, as was discussed yesterday in this blog), is coming quickly. Most likely either by the end of this week, or at latest by next Monday. But instead of just sitting around and WAITING for that outcome. I'm starting to put some PLAN B's together. The chart WRAP's last evening were very interesting. Good traders, like McF & Amen have been bubbling a lot lately about metals and, of course, the Euro. (I even had an extensive feature on the Euro on this blog over this past weekend). I asked AMEN RA to start "wrapping" the GOLD:EUR cross candles for a time going forward. That ought to tell a story that you don't typically see if you're just watching the dollar price in GOLD.


This thread is without a chart or image thus far. I'm going to add some as the morning progresses. On my mind are the following:


- Some simple "old fashioned" technical patterns on GLD and what it looked like after the March '08 top.
- The "follow through" on yesterdays EUR-DOL candle
- Of course, what happens in equities.
- Reaction to ADP number


Start blogging and stay tuned. I expect to have more questions than answers by the end of the day.

VERY SIMPLISTIC OVERVIEW OF LONG TERM GLD TREND

(Sometimes "simple" is good)

SPX - SCENARIO 1 & 2 ILLUSTRATIONS

USO - Weekly (Hypothetical)

Note: I'm very shy about posting oil charts because they can get so hijacked by GEO-POLITICAL actions beyond the control of anyone. So what you see here is simply a look at what 'seems' to have been the GRAVITY LINE sine 2006 (while the S*** in the world economy was only flying through the air and hadn't introduced itself to THE FAN just yet). If I were trading crude right now, I'd be very watchful that something, ANYTHING, couldn't pull that level right up to the area in the chart indicated in RED... But neither would I expect that to happen. Sometimes the best trade is NO TRADE. If it WERE to reach that red area, by May, on poor fundamentals, then I'd probably convert to a willing "short".