Morning Audibles 3.3.10

When I prepare these "Morning Audibles", I basically like to find one simple and key area of focus. One theme that says, this here, more or less accurately describes what's going on. This key unlocks many doors.


Sometimes everything seems to be on cruise control (you find that one thing) and sometimes it doesn't. Lately, (actually for a few weeks now), I've been talking about the idea of the SPX to backtest in the 1116-1126 areas (as there were "chart gaps" to fill). One of them is now filled, the other may be soon.


While it makes you feel good to make a "correct" call on something (especially if you either traded it for profit, or hedged AGAINST it), it also sometimes makes you nervous when the moment of truth arrives. It's like that golfer that has played a wonderful tournament, and a scintillating back 9 on the final day, and he comes up and has to simply 2-putt from 40 feet. In that exact moment, all of a sudden, you can't feel your hands, you see imaginary snakes and alligators between your ball and the hole, and the hole itself shrinks down to about the size of a shot glass.


In golf, you have to WILL yourself to make those two putts. You have to call on every discipline you've ever learned, or practice to make it happen. With the markets, (or your positions) you can't act that way. You can't MAKE something happen. You have to begin to prepare to have a PLAN B in mind. It would sort of like being the golfer and starting to think "well if I three putt this, at least I'll still be in a playoff". That would be the WORST THING EVER for a golfer to think, but might be a handy idea for a TRADER.


I've said before, that I believe the "time" element on reaching (now 1126, or even a throw over to 1130, as was discussed yesterday in this blog), is coming quickly. Most likely either by the end of this week, or at latest by next Monday. But instead of just sitting around and WAITING for that outcome. I'm starting to put some PLAN B's together. The chart WRAP's last evening were very interesting. Good traders, like McF & Amen have been bubbling a lot lately about metals and, of course, the Euro. (I even had an extensive feature on the Euro on this blog over this past weekend). I asked AMEN RA to start "wrapping" the GOLD:EUR cross candles for a time going forward. That ought to tell a story that you don't typically see if you're just watching the dollar price in GOLD.


This thread is without a chart or image thus far. I'm going to add some as the morning progresses. On my mind are the following:


- Some simple "old fashioned" technical patterns on GLD and what it looked like after the March '08 top.
- The "follow through" on yesterdays EUR-DOL candle
- Of course, what happens in equities.
- Reaction to ADP number


Start blogging and stay tuned. I expect to have more questions than answers by the end of the day.


VERY SIMPLISTIC OVERVIEW OF LONG TERM GLD TREND
(Sometimes "simple" is good)


SPX - SCENARIO 1 & 2 ILLUSTRATIONS


USO - Weekly (Hypothetical)
Note: I'm very shy about posting oil charts because they can get so hijacked by GEO-POLITICAL actions beyond the control of anyone. So what you see here is simply a look at what 'seems' to have been the GRAVITY LINE sine 2006 (while the S*** in the world economy was only flying through the air and hadn't introduced itself to THE FAN just yet). If I were trading crude right now, I'd be very watchful that something, ANYTHING, couldn't pull that level right up to the area in the chart indicated in RED... But neither would I expect that to happen. Sometimes the best trade is NO TRADE. If it WERE to reach that red area, by May, on poor fundamentals, then I'd probably convert to a willing "short". 

203 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 203   Newer›   Newest»
Prashant said...

Silver is tempting me with a Short, kind of itch wanting to be scratched. But EURUSD action still not clear to me.

McFearless said...

stops around 17.30 ish prashant, but yes with the bounce overnight, I agree it looks like a nice set up here on silver.

Lefty was on this yesterday.

McFearless said...

Valuable (snark) investment advice from Warren:

"The best thing to own is a good business"

Wow, insightful.

CV said...

The first thing that caught my eye this morning were no less than 3 headlines on the Bloomberg
front page about the Euro... I'm not even going to link the articles, just give the headlines..

- Banks Summoned by EU to Discuss CDS Market Regulation After Greece Turmoil

- Hedge Funds Said to Get U.S. Demand to Retain Records of Bets Against Euro

- Bonds Rally in Greece on Deficit Plan as Pound Snaps Six-Day Losing Streak

This is EXACTLY what I'd suggested would happen in my EURO thread post over the weekend... I'll make up a new term here...

"QJ" = "Quantitative Jawboning"

Great, so in the end, the only ARRESTS that will be made is the free fall in the Euro will be "arrested" for a few days...

Keep in mind though, that during this period, it ought to be difficult for equities to sell off, and gold ought to maintain a bid...

After the "authorities" have done enough camera time on this, everyone can get back to shorting the Euro, and the world will be as it should be...

In fact, my belief is that these same "authorities" who are showing concern about banks & hedge funds role in Greece, actually WANT a weaker Euro...

Right now though they have to have their Claude Rains/Captain Renault moment (from the movie Casablanca)...

"The major has been shot... round up all the usual suspects"

OR

"I'm shocked, SHOCKED that there is gambling going on in this establishment" (as he collects his ill gotten winnings)

call me ahab said...

re Greece-

1.Greece to cut public sector salary benefits by 30%

2.Cuts wages across the board.

3.Establish emergency tax of 1% for salaries over €100,000

4. Freeze public sector hiring in 2010, and in 2011 one new job will be filled for every 5 retirements

items 1 & 2 should go over real well- lol

CV said...

@McF

When I pulled up the GLD chart to study it a little last night, I did what I always do first (and that is to just let my EYE draw me to any kind of fractal that might be developing)...

I prefer to do it that way so I don't go into any study with "preconceived" notions...

Without attaching any FIBO levels to it or anything, this move in gold looks VERY SIMILAR to the re-test of the highs in March 2008... (both timewise and vector wise)... Later this morning, I'll put up a chart to show you what I mean...

The bottom line is, the pattern still could hold for a little while longer (perhaps even as long as the entire month of March)... But if it breaks down, it could be an elevator ride...

CV said...

@ahab

When faced with 1&2, Europeans do one thing and one thing only...

They STRIKE... The country will absolutely shut down, transportation wise, service wise, everything...

And while they're sitting around doing nothing, they'll assemble themselves into mobs and toss molotov cocktails at cars and POLICE barricades...

call me ahab said...

it's all posturing CV-

no way will they accept a cut in benefits and pay-

it's the European way-

I remember when the French were protesting because there were not enough free scholarships-

lol

CV said...

@ahab

Of course it's all posturing...

The funny thing is though, ideas like this will give cover for the EUR to rise for a day or three...

Then, when reality sets in (whichever way it sets in, either by attempting to go through with the process and seeing the country get TORCHED), or, the eventual "cave in" by the IMF, everyone will suddenly realize that the game is up and everything in the world will tank...

Except for the dollar...

Anonymous said...

Of all the charts out there, I keep going back to this one...

Ride the red line for a while?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p47554213279

qqqq

CV said...

@qqqq

IMO - SPX is just going to "suspend" here until the Euro-Dollar perhaps completes a minor correction...

It may take a day, or three...

AmenRa said...

ADP Jan 2010 revised from -22k to -60k. Ouch.

CV said...

An interesting "side note" is that on the move up from 1044... SPX sure has been leaving a lot of "holes" to fill...

Something to think about...

CV said...

Not out of the question here to make a little roundtrip back to 1104-1105 or so...

CV said...

Maybe not that far... 1110 is still important...

mcHAPPY said...

mcHAPPY is tired. Surely this market must be getting tired - treading water is very difficult. Eventually the market will sink or get a life line out. The question is how much longer can it hold on? FWIW, mcHAPPY is on the bottom waiting for the market to join him - misery loves company you know.

call me ahab said...

have to to roll this morning-

all have a good day

McFearless said...

@C,

Very much looking forward to the gold chart, I have to admit I'm lost on that particular market right now. As I just said on the sister site, in the near term my price range for gold is somewhere between $900 and infinity. So I got that going....

McFearless said...

Ra,

Yeah, the revision, but nobody cares now, the talk has all moved to the snowstorm, and people drawing comparisons to, yeah, 1996....WTF?

I'm sorry, if you (not you in particular) think we are anwywhere remotely close to 1996 you are just not paying attention at all.

Karen said...

good morning.. 1121.44 is seriously thick..let's just watch and wait.. but faz under 17 was a buy..

McFearless said...

This 1121 was the 50% retrace of the 10/07-3/09 move, magnet once again. We first broke that a few days before Christmas last year. It does seem to be struggling some there but keeping in mind C's higher target, and AT's 1128.

Mannwich said...

Supposedly added 15,600 jobs here in Minny in Janaury. Unemployment rate down to 7.3% (from 7.4% in Dec). Showing signs of life here in the hinterlands?

McFearless said...

Manny,

I've basically resorted to not even caring about the weekly or monthly jobs numbers anymore.

My take, for 10 years private sector jobs have gone down, the trend is still in place, and we can't all work for the govt, no matter how much some people think it's a good idea.

It was interesting reading comments on the other site yesterday, and on other blogs, about how people have learned to live off the unemployment check pretty well and though they are certainly able to work, they've got no intention of changing it up. I have to say that really bothers me....a lot.

Mannwich said...

I agree, ben, but I think the mentality out there is that others got "their bailout", so there's not conscience about getting their free lunch too. It's really everywhere now, which is is why nobody ever seems concerned about debt or deficits until it hits THEIR wallet. It's sad, really. Until our leaders start incenting the right behaviors, this will only get worse.

Mannwich said...

You know, I like Mish, but I think he goes overboard with his focus on hammering the Unions. Are they insane? Yes, but to ask Unions and regular working folk to take it on the chin, while the elite on Wall Street, Corporate America and their political enablers share none of the pain (AGAIN), is a bit too much for me......

It's like watching Lou Dobbs go off the deep end in Illegals a couple of years ago. Easy to attack the people lowest on the totem pole. Trying venturing up the pole a bit and then you get more respect from me.

I-Man said...

Ditto Manny.

Unions have become a plague, but they arent the root of the problem.

I'm all for workers organizing together to represent themselves in a unified way to their employers or industry...

Its the current manifestation of the unions that is the problem.

We need some drastic political and educational reform in this country- if we focus there first, we might be surprised at how easily some other areas fall into place.

But I dont wanna go there right now... I'm feeling relatively calm at the moment.

CV said...

A VERY SIMPLE LONG TERM LOOK AT GLD CHART IS NOW POSTED (with simple annotations)

McFearless said...

Manny,

Totally agree at 10:31. Met with a new client last night, just started to work with them about three weeks ago, fairly affluent they asked me "are we getting screwed for being responsible" and I said "well, in a lot of ways...yes".

I imagine you can figure what they said next:

Should we try to take advantage? IOW, should we be irresponsible then to?

I get this question a lot lately, but for 7 years I never heard it once.

As for Mish, I think he's made his point on the unions, he's a bright guy, wish he wouldn't dedicate so many posts to the unions, I guess though it's too easy to find good material on how insane these union leaders and many of the members are, maybe that's it?

CV said...

@I-Man

"We need some drastic political and educational reform in this country- if we focus there first, we might be surprised at how easily some other areas fall into place.

But I dont wanna go there right now... I'm feeling relatively calm at the moment."

---

I'm with you on that... STAY CALM and just let everything happen via LB's "Velvet Revolution" tactics...

It's already happening... So why fight even that...

Mannwich said...

Maybe ben, but my point is - the folks in the Unions and (other non-union working folk) KNOW by now that those at the top will NOT share ANY of the pain, so they aren't budging, and to be honest, I don't blame them one bit. There is strength in numbers. It's the only real bargaining leverage working people have now. Do executives not play up their leverage (the need for paying to "keep top talent") every chance they get? I think we all know the answer to that one. I just got through coaching my wife on her contract negotiations and I always remind her that she has to be a cold-blooded killer and play THEIR game and play it better or as well as the sharks if she wants to play. Well, we got her a raise (nearly 10%) and in this environment that's a big victory, although we were aiming for more.

Karen said...

i'm sure no one but me cares but,

US OIL INVENTORIES:Crude Stocks Grow Well Above Estimates
10:45 AM ET 3/3/10 NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. crude inventories rose by four times the amount analysts had expected last week, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Energy.

Crude oil stockpiles expanded by 4.0 million barrels to nearly 341.6 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 26, versus an average survey estimate of a 1-million barrel increase. Data published by the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday showed a 2.7-million barrel increase.

McFearless said...

Manny, a 10% raise now, yes, I'd say that's a victory, big victory is an understatment. Nice going. I like hearing good news bout jobs, DE has been awful lately, just yesterday AstraZeneca let a bunch of R&D go, this is right after they just completely shut down a VLO plant here, you had people at that plant making 125-150k a year with a high school diploma, how could they ever replace that?, and oh yeah, we've got virtually every major bank in the world incorporated here in DE, BAC being the largest. Just nice to hear some good news once in a while.

CV said...

@McF

All that's important to me about "unions" and things is how politicians (worldwide) react to it...

I think we've all seen numerous clear cases of that to understand what the NEXT politician will do...

So what do you do? You understand it and factor it in...

Obviously, the "knee jerk" is EXTEND & PRETEND, but even that only goes so far... Watch for the NEXT CRACK to become visible when the weight bearing capability of EXTEND AND PRETEND is compromised...

Karen said...

that gld chart speaks loud and clear to me.. thanks for doing that cv..

Mannwich said...

We are at a point of mass inertia. Nobody wants to compromise or sacrfice anything because nobody thinks that others will do the same.....

Quite frankly, I think that the middle class is tired of getting kicked in the balls by everyone, including their corporate masters and political enablers.

CV said...

@karen

Re: Crude Inventories

Seems that "out of work" people don't have to drive very much...

I-Man said...

@ Karen

I-Man cares...

So much in fact, that he charted DTO for you last night.

CV said...

@karen

The FIRST thing that I think of when I look at that GLD chart is that when you smooth out all the "bumps", the gold rise has been very slow and managed...

It all depends on WHERE YOU ARE at any given moment...

I wouldn't be surprised AT ALL if central banks were coordinated in their attempts to keep the trajectory of GOLD within the boundaries of what's identified on that chart right there...

Mannwich said...

@cv: Or people who "work from home". I haven't filled my tank since late December. Not kidding, although I'm close E now and have a 2.5 hour trip to Duluth on Friday for a business meeting, so I guess I'll have to fill it up soon. Oh well.

Mannwich said...

Of course, I also own a Corolla. I wonder if I should be worried about highway driving in that thing? Hhhmmmm......

I-Man said...

@ C

When I look at that GLD chart I think...

"Jah Grid."

Thanks for sharing.

One of these nights I will don my armor once more and face the GLD charts in battle again.

CV said...

@Manny

If the brakes fail on it, and you're a handyman, perhaps you could devise a way to use the AIRBAGS as a parachute brake...

Mannwich said...

@cv: We had a little issue with the accelerator on a highway trip to Milwaukee back in Oct. '08, but my mechanic said it was likely the floor mat, and we haven't seen it happen since then, thankfully. That was a bit troubling, to say the least. Still makes me a bit worried, although it's an '02, and I don't think those models are covered in the recall. Doesn't mean they're totally safe though.

CV said...

CV is seeing his 1126 (gap) level almost being reached, but the chart tells me it'll push beyond that...

... still waiting here (to go short)

McFearless said...

C,

Nice gold chart, I agree, simple is often good. I don't think the gold story ever needs to be too complex, not even now.

CV said...

@Amen

What does the DAILY 3lb on SPX move up to with a higher close today?

It's 1094 right now, correct?

McFearless said...

Alright, I'll try to get back later in the afternoon before close.

Happy trading.

AmenRa said...

CV

A higher close will have us trending up on the daily 3LB with a reversal of 1106.75.

CV said...

Later Mcf...

I gotta say... I don't really mind this EUR-USD move today...

The 'feel' I get is that it's on a mission to just go back and touch some technical retrace numbers, then return to the course it's been on for the past 6 weeks...

If that's so... All this apparent "buoyancy" could have the rug pulled out from under it very shortly (like, this week)...

Karen said...

The fact that this guy sees what we see isn't helping..

Karen said...

I-Man, i did comment on the dread dto at dread.

CV said...

@Amen

And then 1109 (with another day, right?)...

After that...1115.71

I like those numbers (as reversal points)

72bat said...

@karen
dto getting close to 62.50

CV said...

@karen

Eh... he's just been reading this blog :-)

Karen said...

62.59 was darn close, laughing!

Karen said...

something big is really up if crude is being bot after that bearish inventory report..

Mannwich said...

Pretty convenient for that Israel-Iran summer attack rumor for the oil market. Not so convenient for my DTO.

AmenRa said...

CV

1109 was the reversal price to break from the down move. After 1106.75 it's 1115.71 and 1118.20. So higher close today then rev=1106.75. Higher close tomorrow then rev=1115.71, etc.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Ben,

I kind of see Mish a little differently than your feelings about his constant carping about public unions. When he started his crusade, I cannot recall another source that had recognized just what a cushy life many on the public payroll had, and how much more they made than the private sector. He has been a Diogenes, or a Roubini, and now the rest of the economic universe is catching up with his lead.

He may be strident, but he points are well made. I would much rather lose the viewpoints of a BR than Mish. He'd be much harder to replace.

CV said...

As we reach these levels, I'm up for two general scenarios:

SCENARIO 1
At, say, 1130, the market just absolutely tanks... Wipes out 15% in a move that lasts through the end of March (down to near 960)... The idea has merits... Momos can make the excuse "well, it's all because of Greece, we couldn't control that"...

A move like that would provide a wonderfully wide trading range that could possibly extend through September... Those with cash, could actually call the market back up to 1080-1090 by June (so, as of end of fiscal year, the market would only be off a percent or two)... Moreover, there would be more UP (green days) to report in the April-June time period... Johnny would stay calm...

SCENARIO 2
They "step it down"...

You still get a pullback here, but perhaps only to about 1060 (fill some chart gaps)... That would have us moving sideways through about mid-May...

What I like LESS about this scenario is that the market stays "nervous" the whole time... neither side is happy... Plus, you'd probably end up having to "sell in May & go away" from a technical standpoint... At the 4th of July barbecues, there'd be some 'splainin' to do...

So, if somebody has the guts to pull the trap door out here, it may make for some nice trading going forward...

Karen said...

i really want to see the 23.30-23.40 hold for uup.. then i'll still be okay..

Mannwich said...

But the unions are but a pimple on the country's ass compared to the other more pressing problems higher up on the totem pole. The perception of the middle class (including Unions) is that THEY must always sacrifice during times of duress while our masters not only sacrfice nothing, but fill their pockets even more during down times and up times. Mish should know by now that part of the Unions' stance against reducing pay/benefits is that they've seen this kind of thing happen time and time again. Do we really think that the prices for the Middle Class are going to decrease any time soon to offset those salary and benefit cuts? I think not.

CV said...

I ADDED A CHART TO THE THREAD TO ILLUSTRATE THE SCENARIOS I'D IDENTIFIED IN MY (11:53) POST

I-Man said...

This "Open lower and find buyers" game in TLT isnt going to go on much longer...

This baby is about to run I tell ya.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/greek-tragedy-is-just-the-first-act.aspx

"Das sees the European Union's tentative and hugely unpopular effort to guarantee Greek debts as the first phase of the next stage of the global financial crisis. Now that once-private debts are on public balance sheets, the next step is to shift one country's debts to a coalition of countries. In the case of the EU, that means Germany, because it is the only nation on the continent with net savings.

"It's a case of pass the baton, and the problem is that unless Martians show up with money, you are going to run out of people to pass the baton to," Das says.

He believes governments missed their chance to take a sensible way out last year by letting private debts expire as worthless. That would have clocked the big banks, but it might have saved whole countries -- a classic case of battlefield triage. Now governments are going to have to pull back on their spending to balance budgets, which will hamper new efforts to stimulate their economies. It will also starve companies that have grown dependent on government spending of the money they need to expand and hire, further exacerbating rampant joblessness and in turn putting a lid on consumer spending, possibly for years.

"Governments are in a terrible, terrible bind, particularly in Europe, and no one, including me, knows how to unravel their debts without creating complete disorder in markets," Das says. "One by one the dominoes will fall, interrupted by brief periods of calm."

CV said...

@Bruce

Don't look at me for help...

I gave at the office!

CV said...

@Bruce

In the end all the "policy" measures taken by these jackass politicians & central planners are going to look pretty stupid...

Especially when most of them have been patting themselves on the back the past few months having declared "victory" over the matter...

Karen said...

another great chart, cv.. thanks.. scenario one is still plausible, because something really does have to give soon. if nothing else, a lack of volume will lead to inertia.. and a drop of selling might lead to a flood. not to mention that the sky is falling. i'll soon be saying but, "no one would listen."

(shameless plug for Markopolos)

Karen said...

look at the 60 min spx over 20 days... game over?

CV said...

@karen

Game is ALMOST over...

But it would be hard to convince me that to travel all the way up to 1125.64 and don't close the gap that lies just one and a half points above...

As I alluded to earlier in the morning, now that it's come this far, I wouldn't be surprised AT ALL to see some schenanigans (vis-a-vis what happened in the two days when SPX hit 1150...

Big Drop... Big recovery... Slightly higher print...

Then, game over!

Bruce in Tennessee said...

CV:

I think this Das fellow sees things pretty much the same way I do...we have a massive debt that has to be repudiated in some fashion. All we've done is selectively shift some of the private debt to the taxpayer in the guise of Keynesian stimulus.

I will be watching to see what the Greek population has to say about only stage I of the austerity program. What I would like to see is widespread rioting in Germany by a population that says "No, don't dump that shit on us."

CV said...

Any thoughts on that SPX 'scenario' chart I put into the thread?

CV said...

@Bruce

In the end, it's not likely to be Germany...

It'll be the IMF that steps in in the 11th hour...

Same result though... Euro goes back into the tank, onto next domino...(Italy)

Karen said...

cv, i commented at 12:34.. we've had some quiet tape days but today's takes the cake, imo.

faz dipped lower.. i really need to sit on my hands here.. but srs is also so so tempting.

I-Man said...

@ C

Just spent an hour on this site that Hoffer dropped.

Good stuff.

Just ordered some new heirlooms.

Their pepper selection is amazing.

I-Man said...

Woops:
http://rareseeds.com/

DL said...

Mannwich @ 10:54


“…I think that the middle class is tired of getting kicked in the balls by everyone, including their corporate masters and political enablers”.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

You’ve got to be specific about what you mean by the “middle class”.

Obama’s most favored group is people who make less than 50K/yr. He despises anyone who makes more than 75K/yr, although he thinks that some of the people in the 50K to 75K range aren’t so bad.

Mannwich said...

How so, DL? How does bailing out Wall Street and other corporate criminal buffoons help those who make $50K or less? Those who make $50K or less make up the unemployment class in disproportionate numbers. How has what O has done helped them at all?

And, $75K is STILL the middle class in my mind as well. Propping up asset prices doesn't really help them all that much either, since they don't own most of the assets.

Karen said...

Here @ midday, total trading volume on the primary stock exchanges diverges once again, with weaker totals seen on the NYSE, and heavy totals displayed on NASDAQ. Yesterday, the NASDAQ posted some of the strongest trading volume in nearly four weeks, when price corrected back from the current YTD highs. Today, NASDAQ is right on pace with yesterday's midday totals, but NYSE continues to lag, still signalling a high interest in accumulation of tech. shares vs. broader market issues. The Fed Regional Beige Book survey is due out @ 2:00p.m. ET, so volume & participation may wane ahead of the anticipated release.
As of 12:30ET, nearly 392M shares have changed hands on NYSE, vs. 413M at this time yesterday, while NASDAQ shows 1.35B shares traded vs. 1.35B yesterday.

Karen said...

sorry, that was a briefing.com report.

I-Man said...

Do you think that the rotation into tech is a bearish dollar play?

Mannwich said...

I would also add that what O, the dems and GOP has done hasn't really helped small businesses at all either.......

It's all about keeping the money spigot flowing and small businesses don't even have a spigot, much less money to offer our political class.

I-Man said...

If so, it could unwind just as fast...

CV said...

Sorry karen, I missed 'seeing' that 12:34 post...

You're right about lack of volume... I think that says a lot... ALL of these "market pumps" have been weak (going clear back to last July)...

other things I've noticed out of the corner of my eye...

- It took 26 trading days to get back to NEW HIGHS after the pullback last June... It's 30 trading thus far after 1150... So anyone who was 'looking' back to that as a fractal, is now nearing abandonment of that theory...

- both pullbacks (june '09 & now), were roughly the same degree (8-9% range)...

- With Greek 'theatre' now in the forefront, there is a convenient EXCUSE to tank the market... It can't be OBAMA's fault right? I mean, I can just hear Rahm (don't let a good crisis go to waste) Emmanuel on the phones right now to Lloyd & Jamie...

"Guys... TANK the markets here... Then, at 960, Big O will address THE WORLD and tell everybody, again, that stocks are cheap... Rally CITY (back to 1090) by June!

DL said...

Manwich @ 12:57

I’m not defending his bank bailouts, although most of that was completed before he took office. He did give a lot of money to GM, although that was more of a union thing than an effort to divide the country between the above 50K and below 50K.

His $787B “pork” bill provided tax rebates to people making less than $50K, and nothing to people making more than $75K.

And at the heart of the health care legislation is an effort to take as much money as possible from people who make more than $75K, and give it to people who make less than $50K. So if you make less than $50K, you should be an enthusiastic advocate of Obama, although that’s not the point. My point is just to get you to acknowledge, for better or worse, the 50K+/50K- division that Obama is trying to create.

Mannwich said...

I don't think it's really that simple, DL.

CV said...

@DL

The 'division' that Obama is trying to create has nothing to do with income levels...

Instead, he's trying to DIVIDE the Constitution of the United States with HIS OWN interpretation of what he thinks that should be... IMHO

Mannwich said...

To think that Obama doesn't (and hasn't) catered to the wealthy and poweful, above all, thus far in his term is beyond ludicrous, DL. Sorry, it just is. Try taking a look at the substance behind what he's done and who it actually favors. The middle and lower classes have barely gotten the stale bread crumbs that were first deposited into the dog's dish, who turned it down first.....

CV said...

@I-Man (12:59)

Keep in mind that the $RUT broke out to new highs yesterday...

I think that's another thing that's causing confusion here... Some are ON BOARD with this "rally/retrace"...

But everyone is standing around waiting for the next person to move... Both BULLS & BEARS are nervous here...

Mannwich said...

I will agree that those who aren't multi-millionaires, but have scrapped out a nice living working hard at real, small businesses have little reason to think the O man is "on their side". He clearly isn't. Not enough substantive money and power there to feed on.....

CV said...

@Manny

What's "ironic" is that I don't think that OBAMA really had that in mind when he took office (catering to the wealthy & powerful)... In fact, I'd have pegged him for the exact opposite...

But what it exposes is his clear naivety, and the fact that he was, all along, unprepared for the office, and never had a grasp on reality in the first place...

Mannwich said...

@cv: I think that might be right but who really knows? He probably was well aware of how things "worked" in politics while being in the Senate, but maybe just didn't know the extent of it until he got to the WH. Who knows though? Reality sure is a bitch though, ain't it?

CV said...

Obama... in a nutshell...

- I'm a good public speaker
- People like me
- People are SICK & TIRED of the old regime
- I have NO IDEA how to run a Dairy Queen, let alone a government, but if I surround myself with a bunch of HARVARD TYPES, they ought to be able to keep me on the right path...
- Enter Larry Summers, et al
- Rahn Emmanuel, when all goes wrong, "affix blame"

That's basically it...

72bat said...

@ i-man @ 12:51
and for c & others -
are any of you familiar with seed savers exchange?

DL said...

Mannwich,

Of the money that has been spent so far, the vast majority has gone to people making less than 75K.

The health care legislation is intended to give money mostly to people making less than 50K. So I don't see why you think that Obama isn't out to redistribute wealth to the $50K- crowd.

I'd be interested to find out what percent of the money spent in the last 12 months you believe has gone to the wealthiest 2% of the population.

CV said...

@72bat

I hadn't heard of it, but I'll check that out...

Also, I-Man... thanks for that link!

Mannwich said...

@DL: But the real substantive bailouts have propped up assets to this point. Which class(es) has that helped? Hint: Not those who make less than $75K annually. And, by far, which bailout was more significant? You don't need a hint to answer that one.

I always remind my brother of this, who would take your side in this debate, but he owns several "investment" properties, all of which would have likely gone belly up by now without the bailouts. Has he been helped by these bailouts? And has he been helped more than those in the middle/lower classes that relatively got table scraps? I think we all know the answer to that one.

Mannwich said...

@DL: How can you not even account for the massive subsidies of the wealthy that has been done by propping up their assets? That's where the real "money" is......

Please spare me with your straw man argument. It's easy to pile on the powerless.

CV said...

@DL

I'm going to jump in (but then jump RIGHT BACK OUT) of the "money spent/money target" argument...

I offer a simple and different perspective on it...

DEFLATION (as you know) hurts the wealthy more than it does the poor...

By running the printing presses (borrowing, so as to put a 'floor' under asset prices is beneficial to those who hold the assets - the Warren Buffets & Jamie Dimons of the world)...

That's the end of the story...

Mannwich said...

Thanks you, cv, for supporting my point. The fact that the wealthy don't even account for this MASSIVE subisidy of their assets is beyond ludicrous. Are they just trying to snooker the less informed? They can't possibly be that misinformed, can they?

CV said...

@Manny

Our TIME STAMPS were identical :-)

Mannwich said...

Off to the gym. I'm a little extra irritated today. need to blow off some steam. Can anyone tell? ;-)

Mannwich said...

I agree, DL. I'm not defending Obama. I'm just saying that his actions have, by far, helped the wealthy far more than any other class. That's a fact. The fact that some wealthy people miss this and constantly criticize his little piddly offerings to the lower classes really irritates the shit out of me.

Karen said...

CV, have you looked at the $bkx wedge lately??

72bat, great seed site!

CV said...

@DL

I'll let you duke it out on your own...

Right now, the poor & middle class are hurting... The rich ain't doin' so bad... That's all I know...

Mannwich said...

And it hasn't been just the TARP either. O had a choice last Feb/March and he cast his lot with the folks who caused this mess. Now we are where we are, but the wealthy should never think they didn't somehow get any freebies either. They got the LION'S SHARE of them!

OK, I'm off now.

DL said...

"DEFLATION (as you know) hurts the wealthy more than it does the poor"

The rich have more assets to deflate.

But unemployment isn't so great either.

Mannwich said...

@cv: Go to NYC and you'll see like I did that the rich are doing just fine, thank you very much. Hard to really detect any recession at all there if you didn't pay REALLY close attention to things. Now why do you think that is?

Mannwich said...

@cv: And I realize that you're essentially agreeing with me. Just trying to support your point.

Leftback said...

LB is in the silver short but adding gradually in case DXY not done finding a local minimum. Miners should follow a clavadista d'oro or d'argent.

Bear in mind the following dynamic - a good jobs report = stronger dollar, while a very weak jobs report = risk aversion = stronger dollar !!!

Mannwich said...

@DL: Do you think we've really deflated yet? I don't.....

Deleveraging, and thus real deflation, hasn't even happened yet. That's what all the bailouts were about, not the little guy who doesn't own squat.

Leftback said...

"Go to NYC and you'll see like I did that the rich are doing just fine"

Bear in mind that's a society that is all about DISPLAY. Under the surface things may not really be so rosy. As ever, the housing market and unemployment rate is key to sentiment. So far, "it's different here"...

Trust me Manny they are all in DEBT to their NECKS.

CV said...

@karen

Thanks for pointing $bkx out...

I keep looking at the "tips of the points" of all these different wedges, and they all seem to point to a CONCLUSION point sometime in the near future...

I can't say when, EXACTLY it will be, but my guess is that it'll be no later than MONDAY...

My 'conspiracy' mentality allows me to entertain the notion that the market may remain elevated (basically) through Friday...

Here's the storyline:

- One more strong day for Euro & weak day for dollar (perhaps tomorrow, or Friday itself)
- Market does one little headfake dip, perhaps, tomorrow... The "rumor mill" will have it that someone leaked the NFP numbers
- Fridays NFP numbers aren't so bad afterall (probably false)... Market rallies back (and hits these levels we've been talking about for almost 3 weeks now...
- Shorts COVER, AGAIN, into the weekend... Friday prints a high of 1130-ish, pulls back sharply off of that, but then rallies back to just UNDER 1126 into the close (when FULL BLOWN sell-off fails to materialize in time...
- People anxiously await another JOHNNY buying session on Monday...

Instead, because everyone just KNOWS markets go up on Monday, it finally does the opposite... Dow off 800 points next week...

Sounds almost too good to be true...

DL said...

Yeah, the wealthy have taken a big hit, especially those who own a lot of real estate.

However, I'd rather be a "fat cat" whose net worth has declined from $10 million to 3 million, than a J6P who's been unemployed for 18 months.

Karen said...

lots of unemployed j6ps in hawaii having the time of their lives! lol..

DL said...

Karen,

A 20-year-old J6P is one thing.

A 55-year-old J6P is quite another.

CV said...

@DL

I'd rather be J6P in hawaii!

CV said...

...with karen

CV said...

...and obama as my butler

Karen said...

The markets will also be looking for succor — not the kind that’s born every minute! — in the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, describing economic conditions in various regions. Also warehouse discount clubs BJ’s Wholesale Club Inc. and Costco Wholesale Corp. both report Wednesday, according to Dow Jones, and we’ll be trolling through the transcripts of their post-earnings conference calls for more insights on the behavior of that fickle creature known as the U.S. consumer.

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/03/02/on-tap-wednesday-warehouse-stores-ism-beige-book/

DL said...

Yeah, I wouldn't mind being a 20-year-old unemployed J6P in Hawaii right now.

(With Karen when she was 20).

CV said...

@karen

They're sure to indicate that the US consumer is alive and well...

When you've decided to stop paying your monthly mortgage, and the government keeps extending your unemployment benefits, there's only one thing to do...

GO SHOPPING!

CV said...

@DL

I'll take the 50

Karen said...

found a great article not too old!

"Labor officials said Hawaii is a state with generous unemployment benefits, where the jobless receive a maximum of $545 per week for 26 weeks, and an additional 33 weeks of federal-approved benefits.

In 2007, when unemployment in Hawaii was below 3.2 percent, the state’s unemployment insurance trust fund reached an all-time high of $552 million, with employers paying an average of $280 per employee. Later that year, a new law lowered that rate to $90 per employee for 2008 and 2009.

The law, however, had a provision that tax rates would increase automatically if the unemployment trust fund balance dipped below what it deemed an adequate level.

The recession has pushed Hawaii’s unemployment rate to 7.2 percent in August, a rate still lower than the national rate at that time of 9.8 percent. Labor department officials said the state has paid out an average of $31.7 million per month since January, and the trust fund will likely run out by the last quarter of 2010.

Raising the unemployment insurance tax from $90 to $2,040 per worker might well put a crimp on a company hiring new employees.

Which, in turn, might well put a crimp on any recovery as far as unemployment goes.

But who knew that unemployment benefits had to be paid for?"

http://sweetness-light.com/archive/hawaii-to-hike-unemployment-ins-tax

CV said...

Where's "onlooker" been this week?

Is he on vacation? Who is feeding his dog?

Karen said...

don't you love a good catch 22?

no worries, i'm a 20 year old looking 50 year old! that's what the fellows tell me anyway.

Anonymous said...

CV, can you do oil chart? Feb/March is oil's lowest point of the year. At this pace is oil headed to $100 in June/July?

Just thinking out loud? -From Canada.

Karen said...

speaking of oil, we can look at the cando for a clue.. about at the top of the range.. making a third peak perhaps? or headed to a new high? time will tell, i guess.

Leftback said...

Yellow cards all round for DL and CV, in defense of the lady's modesty !!

Somehow LB thinks that Karen is not exaggerating - those beach walks must keep Karen in 20 year-old shape....

DL said...

A good "catch 22".

Or a "good catch" who looks 20...?

Or a "good catch" who's 50...?

Yeah, a 50-year-old who looks 20 would be just fine with me.

Karen said...

the catch 22 was referring to the raising unemployment taxes employers pay to pay for the unemployed which forces employers to employ less putting more on unemployment..

really, over there, they just hand out checks and let everyone go surfing.

Karen said...

well, the beige book wasn't received with a mighty clapping of hands and money being thrown into the market.

DL said...

Karen,

I just love it when you talk about unemployment taxes.

CV said...

@anon

The main problem I have with doing an oil chart is the actual CHARTS I use... I typically use 3 sets of charts...

- Proprietary charts from my online account (great for certain "technical tools", but I can't expand the charts into the future times)

- Stock Charts (which I don't have a subscription for so I can't use some of the more sophisticated technical tools - but those charts are nice for "annotations"

- And the charts that I post up here a lot (those are "java charts" from a place called prophet.net)... They're VERY handy because you can get an extended look at charts which helps in visualizing timeframes...

The problem with these JAVA CHARTS is that I can't get quotes on everything... For example, I can get USO, but not $wtic... I can get UUP or FXE, but I can't get EurUsd...

So you can see that although I could piece something together, It would be hard to illustrate it in a chart...

The best I could do CRUDE wise, would be to do it all on USO (as a proxy). One would have to compare levels off of that...

I'll say this lastly... Oil has such a "geo-political" thing attached to it, it's all but impossible to identify a long term trend...

CV said...

This morning, ben was talking about the 1121 as being the 50% RETRACE line from 1576 to 666...

It's not unlikely that we might just "settle in" for a day or so at this level and let all the other minor "corrections" in currencies work themselves out...

Karen said...

1121.44, you mean.

Karen said...

and it's wednesday, cv.. you promised me a market rollover : (

CV said...

@karen

As of yesterday, I was bumping it to Friday - Monday...

My own version of "extend & pretend"... you know :-)

Leftback said...

Karen, a rollover is more than overdue..... :-)

CV said...

I'm ALWAYS happy with "rollover" talk...

So is lefty... ESPECIALLY when he starts thinking about tasks such as the application of suntan lotion...

DL said...

Coming from Leftback, one is left to wonder whether it is the market that is being referred to.

Karen said...

i just need the answer to ONE question.. how is the economy improving with employment improving? Is the economy really at the whim of the weather?

The U.S. economy continued to improve modestly in February despite severe winter weather in many regions, according to the latest Beige Book survey of economic conditions released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Nine of the Fed's 12 regional banks reported that economic activity had improved in February, the survey found.

Leftback said...

ROLLOVER....!!!

Nice tan, Karen. I suspect that tiny thongs are popular in San Clemente.

DL said...

Karen,

I just need the answer to ONE question.

How do you put up with all these obnoxious guys?

CV said...

@LB

LB's identity truly revealed

Hey LB, I know you're British, but I didn't know you came FROM ROYALTY

DL said...

Cheeseburger, anyone?

Karen said...

i've got tuna, arugula, avocado and balsamic in a bowl.. needs capers.. back in a minute.

DL said...

I'd like to see a drop to 1105.

Then I'd buy, for a pop.

McFearless said...

DL,

Obnoxious, us guys? Whaaa?

@Bruce,

You've got a good point about Mish, and don't get me wrong, I completely agree with him about the unions, it's just that he's been doing 2-3 posts a day to rant about unions for months now. I suppose it's easy for me to say I get it already!, but if his point is to eductate more people, he should just keep doing what he's doing.

I shouldn't be so whiny though, Mish has a lot to offer, I just want to hear other things from him, I'm not paying for his time though, after all.

Leftback said...

CV: That has to be Karen receiving the lotion...

anyone excited about the UPTURN by Bucky ??

I-Man said...

Oh hell yes...

Karen said...

come on, DL! you know my top is most magnetic.. 1101 in case it has slipped your mind.. currently the 50 ema, btw.

I-Man said...

Cant help but think there is one hell of a mean trade in QID brewing...

CV said...

Very happy to see BUCKY still has some fans...

Although I DO like karens UUP 23.30 call...

It seems to me, that the Eur-USD is 'a frettin to post some technical support levels here within a day or so and get on to resumin' their ways...

Enough of this s***!

DL said...

Yeah, I'd like to slip into the 1101 zone.

Leftback said...

Yes, LB has had quite enough of this EUROPEAN BULLSHIT,

let's get back to selling the ESCARGOTS, PAELLA, KEBAB, and WURST currency and buying APPLE PIE, HOT DOGS, COCA-COLA and TEQUILA.

That, chaps, is what LB is talking about.

I-Man said...

You wanna get long the mexi peso?

DL said...

LB,

European BULLSHIT??

On which side of the pond do your loyalties lie?

McFearless said...

I-man,

I took a look at QID last night,... agreed.

There is a trade there I believe, question is, would you do that or TYP if you had your spots picked out?

AmenRa said...

Closed the rising window from this morning. Let's see if the rising window from yesterday gets closed.

CV said...

I ADDED A "LONG TERM" USO CHART TO THE THREAD ON A REQUEST EARLIER FROM ANON - WITH A FEW ANNOTATIONS

CV said...

@Amen

I just think the "rising wedge" is buying some time until Friday-Monday...

Looking BETTER here though... Bulls are REALLY going to have to go on a rampage to get this above 1130 (and more importantly - follow it through)...

The last act might just be desperation...

CV said...

Gotta go ladies & gents (Wednesdays early for CV)

AMEN RA'S DAILY CANDLE WRAP at 5:30

I'll be back later this evening :-)

CV said...

Before I leave...

I'm noticing that the last 60 minute candle on SPX is red and engulfing...

Might want to check back a little and see the patterns right after a double engulfing candle was achieved...

Later!

I-Man said...

@ B22...

Now you done done it. I didnt know there was such an animal.

My thoughts on the 3x at the moment are that they are most suited for the hedge, ie: long SDS, hedge with UPRO-

But for balls out directional swing trade, sure, 3x is fine.

Leftback said...

DL: LB was employing IRONY, a sophisticated form of HUMOUR.

I-Man: BALLS OUT DIRECTIONAL SWING TRADERS. The new site name?

I-Man said...

I-Man is currently trading vicariously through a friend, who is recklessly following I-Man into the balls out directional arena with SPXU.

May Jah help him.

I-Man is also trading vicariously through another individual, who just opened 1000 shares of TLT.

Way more meat than I ever threw around, thats for sure.

I felt alot better when I had money at stake, and not my street cred, fwiw.

McFearless said...

@I,

ha, I figured you knew about that vampire. I think a hedge or some sort of pairs trade is better for the 3xers.

McFearless said...

I-man,

I can tell you without a doubt, for me, it's way easier to lose my own money than it ever has been to have to eat a bad trade for a client. Screw the street cred, it just hurts emotionally. No way around it though, it happens, and you deal with it, but that doesn't make it suck any less.

McFearless said...

I made a few bad trades in 2005 for an account that haunted me for about a year, still work with the client though, he didn't give up on me.

Leftback said...

TLT will fly into the weekend if claims/NFP are soft and DOUBLE-DIPPY.

We have been playing TZA from time to time of late. Of course the market direction hasn't co-operated much.

LB is a big fan of ERX when he is ready for something BOUNCY.

Where did Karen go?

Karen said...

NLY's Inflation Chartbook

I-Man said...

I think she had a date with that arugula...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Ben,

I know. Many visit him daily, as you and I do, and many have commented that he's become fixated.
(Kinda of like Englishmen and feminine tops, if you get my drift)....

Great day at the mine, going to take my bride out tonight and dine. We saw Shutter Island last night...reminded me of several other movies of that genre...

Leftback said...

Afternoon, Bruce. Busy salt mine today? Do you win the NO GREEK BAILOUT BURGER BET? I think it may be too early, we can't be sure a few drachmas weren't being passed around in between shots of OUZO.

You lot will be amused at Macro Man taking on the "Anons" today. He is quite tolerant but not averse to blasting a few retards.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/don't-send-your-kids-to-college!-%22it's-a-scam%22-james-altucher-says-434365.html?tickers=%5EGSPC,spy,COCO,APOL,DV,ESI,%5EDJI&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

Rethinking College as Student-Loan Burdens Rise

"A recent WSJ article profiled a Columbia, Ohio doctor facing a whopping $500,000 in student loans -- the result of deferred payments and accumulated charges. While the doctor's debt burden may be extreme, more U.S. college students are borrowing larger amounts to pay for surging tuition costs.

Rising debt is one key reason why our guest James Altucher, a hedge-fund manager and author, argues: Don't send your kids to college!"

...Altucher gets my voice for dumbass of the decade...the idea of college is not for the job, it is to prepare you for life. Work and living frugally in college will get you through, even today...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Back in a minute Lefty, for my, as always, deeply reasoned thoughts...the mine calls..

McFearless said...

Bruce,

My wife and I were thinking about checking that movie out this weekend. Doesn't sound like you thought it was too great.

As for James Altucher, he's a Cramer groupie no? And a Buffett congregation member? That's enough for me.....next!

That said, I have a client that has a 32 year old son that lives with them still, he went to college,... for Storytelling, and in that case, I agree it was a waste of time and money....Of course, the parents help encourage his actions today.

Leftback said...

Extended our metal/miner shorts. Man, bonds have been tedious this week, we'll discuss those markets tomorrow.

You know what they say, never short a dull market, we are not hedging our Ts here at present.

McFearless said...

Lefty,

We haven't discussed in a while.

What do you think of the Yen or JGB's?

Karen said...

can't stand that JA, either! but you here tell of stay at homes with huge student loans to pay off.. stopping after the bachelor might have made more sense to the net worth..

Karen said...

off to the beach! later, fellas.

McFearless said...

Maybe I should take my comment back, Storytelling effectively seems to qualify you for the highest office in the land....

I-Man said...

@ Bruce

Hard saying that to someone who graduates with 50K in loan debt, after busting their ass for 4 years with no money, racking up CC debt to eat, (and drink, it wasnt all bad...)

All the while living under the illusion that if I "just went to college" and "made good grades"... all would be good and I'd find the perfect job.

I still think it was a waste of time... and its been 6 years since I graduated.

It prepared me to sit around a bunch of entitled rich kids with sick cars who didnt give a shit about school, while I busted my ass working three jobs, made deans list, and took the city bus.

Two sides to every story.

Was my education worth the $50K + interest?

Not even close. I could have done better for life experience as a longshoreman at the port, and bought a library card and taken community college classes.


All that said, I agree with you. The pursuit of higher education is a noble thing, and rewarding.

But is it worth all the money and debt?

Leftback said...

Yen will strengthen to a crescendo in the next collapse and then it will eventually be destroyed.

JPY has been amazingly strong of late, the BoJ has to actually tell people that the Yen is toilet paper for it to weaken. Obviously when it all goes pear-shaped, JGBs and yen will go up in smoke, but surely the Nikkei will blow up first, and Japanese corporate bonds, capital structure and all that, so we will have plenty of warning. Then a devaluation and a flight to USD and USTs. Should be fun !!!

LB actually thinks that a stronger Yen = safety trade from China and reduced long AUD bets. If China slows/blows, we could see 80 until BoJ does a massive QE, and even then they are boxed in by the JGB market.

McFearless said...

Bruce,

I could see for what you do why college is a must. For what I do, it isn't, nor do I think it prepares you for the world I operate in. I went to a huge school, so that aspect helped me, but not in understanding how business gets done, really. I believe I could make a very compelling argument that rather than going to school for finance or econ, and then having to spend the next 3-4 years after you get out de-brainwashing yourself, you'd have been better off, and wealthier finding a good mentor and learning that way, for my job is what I mean.

I'm glad I went to college, but there isn't much doubt in my mind I'd be just as successfull in my career now if I hadn't gone. Most of what I know about markets I certainly didn't learn at school outside of real basics, like, what is a stock, what is an option, and the economics I was taught, virtually all nonsense....very expensive nonsense.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Ben:

I guessed the ending after 15 minutes...it was called a thriller, and there are some tense moments...but the plot and how the situations are presented the audience...

Fella like you will probably guess the ending before you buy your ticket. Now Leftback, He would have problems.......finding the theater...

Mannwich said...

I was going to say it depends on what one goes to college for, I guess, but I will say this - - I was pretty clueless before going to college and I learned A LOT there. Helped me grow up a lot as well. Was an invaluable experience regardless of what I majored in, but then again, I went to a state school and only had a small amount (relatively) of student loans to pay back. I was able to pay them all back in less than 5 years.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Ben...I finished undergrad and med school with no debt...none...worked my young ass off, I admit, but no debt...

more mine duties...

McFearless said...

Bruce,

For my generation, I'm more than lucky with the debts from school, I only left school with about 13k in debt and I paid my own way, mom and dad didn't have much money for it but I wanted to go badly, I thought about it like I-man did at the time. I was fortunate enough to get those paid off quickly so I can't even complain about that part, at the very minimum they should raise the income limit for where you can deduct student loan interest, kids that go to law school get killed with that, my brother-in law is a prime example, he works at the Philly DA, and he is NOT making a lot of money at all, not even close, but he's got a $1,400 per month student loan bill.

I-Man said...

And school was a lot cheaper then my friend...

McFearless said...

I would point out though that when I went to PSU, which was in-state for me, it was less than half the cost it is right now. Today I would not have been able to afford to go there on my own like I did. That was a big goal for me growing up, to go to Penn State, sounds silly to some people I'm sure, it's just Penn State right, but it would have hurt me not to have been able to go.

McFearless said...

test?

I-Man said...

$1400... thats a tall order!

Now I dont feel so bad... but I aint got a law degree either.

(Not that I'd want one.)

Full disclosure:

I went to college because I wanted to be a teacher. Still do, but I also want to make more than 35k a year... and NOT go to grad school. I make more than that now, and I'm just a schlep at a brokerage firm.

Something isnt right there...

Mannwich said...

Not silly at all, Ben. Just graduating from college was a big deal in my family. My parents never went. But you're right. The costs today are just astounding. I don't know how regular families can even afford to send their kids even to state schools. That bubble has yet to pop but it needs to badly.

McFearless said...

Manny,

Same here, my mom and dad didn't go to college, my mom actually had two brothers, that both went, but her and her sister, my grandfather didn't think girls needed to go to college, real old school, he regretted that later on. They were very proud of me that I went so it was a really big deal for me.

I have to tell you I hate having convo's with my average earning clients about their kids college because it virtually always involves a lot of debt. It's depressing in a lot of ways.

I can't say I feel completely bad for them, because they waited a long time before saving for this, but I'm going see people later tonight to talk exactly about this. two sons, twin boys, both have been accepted to very expensive schools, and of course mom and dad want them to be able to go wherever, the outflow each year would be over 120k when all expenses are factored in. These people have a mortgage etc and they have a high household income, but it's still going to be a struggle and they will most likely have to delay retirement a year or two. That's insane....

McFearless said...

I-man,

I couldn't believe it when my sister told me about it, the reason it's so high is because he worked for a Congressman for a few years after school and had some deferral on the payment as he was making no money at all doing that work, then once the payments kicked in it was so high. They pay about 1,500 a month for a crappy apt outside philly, he's got to live in the city because of where he works. it's a shame, 3k a month out the door before they even buy any food.

I-Man said...

Thats insane...

And will be the fuel for a middle class revolution in this country someday.

Hopefully.

Mannwich said...

You guys will LOVE this. Rubin trots out the "nobody saw it coming" meme. How do these guys constantly get away with this crap?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/03/robert-rubin-virtually-no_n_484130.html

AmenRa said...

Dear Rubin:

"Excuses are tools of the incompetent used to build monuments to nothing. For those who specialize in them shall never be good at anything else."

Sincerely,
The Bears

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