TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 3.4.10 - Dumpster Dive? Well it IS 'Oscar' week!

Morning Audibles 3.4.10 - Dumpster Dive? Well it IS 'Oscar' week!

Bears have been undoubtedly been saying to themselves this past week. "How long can this charade last"? I'm speaking of the time it takes for the market to reach certain levels that seem to be PREORDAINED when you combine sophisticated computer ALGOS with printed money that the central banking system effective "steals" from the US taxpayer.

Answer to the above question... As long as it takes... Even though it's tedious (as it is very visible when all sorts of technical indicators start to look "toppy"), it is sort of amusing at the same time. Some like to call it the "Dash for Trash" (where all the crappy little stocks get bought up, such as Ethan Allen up 25% yesterday). Or, I just equate it to that other great American pastime DUMPSTER DIVING.

Mom... the bulls are into the trash again!

Would you like me to erect some apparatus to help you improve your technique?

And in a world with collapsing commercial real estate loans, unemployment, soverign debt default... Well, remember JOHNNY is in the room too...

And I have some charts to add to this thread, but I wanted to get it started first. The charts will give you my next best guess as to when this all might end.

Here's the model I'm working on at the moment. The times are getting tighter. This wedge, (any wedge) can be broken at any given moment, but if what bumps it off is just NOISE, the ALGOS will catch it... Expiration point is the key. After that, and you're ALICE IN WONDERLAND...

Of course even ALICE needs a place to go. So if the previous pattern remains correct (BTW - it is the pattern I've been discussing for 3 weeks now). Here's where we might fall... SOON... Instead, if it continues to wander around, UPWARDS, there's a PLAN B in effect (roughly 1137 on OPEX Friday)... What I like about this idea is that I feel some of the risk that bulls faced getting "short" the market last summer does not hold water here. I'm LESS worried about an explosive move upwards... If there are any bears left, they're completely exhausted by now... Time & boredom are the only real enemies...

216 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 216 Newer› Newest»

Anonymous said...: "How long can this charade last"?

good question; March 4, 2010 at 8:49 AM
Anonymous said...: "Labor costs dropped at a 5.9 percent pace, more than anticipated, and fell 1.7 percent for all of 2009, the biggest drop since records began six decades ago."

More inflation? /snark

bob; March 4, 2010 at 8:50 AM
Anonymous said...: "How long can this charade last"?

Using Renko style charts... looks like it's lasting a while.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59312982946

Off to work... gotta buy more, more, more to keep this thing up, up, up!

qqqq; March 4, 2010 at 8:53 AM
Anonymous said...: and here's a question-

what does everyone think of a consumption tax?

and here's why I ask-

Democrats like social programs (however, let's don't forget Bush's unfunded prescription drug benefit)

and Republicans apparently like whooping it up in the Middle East-

if Americans like the social programs and the wars-

let's pay for them- otherwise-

wind them down or pare them back so they are affordable with the current tax level-

because it is rather immature to complain about increased taxes without also arguing for reduced 'benefits' whether they be social programs or anti-terrorist forays - no?; March 4, 2010 at 9:01 AM
CV said...: @qqqq

LOL- All I could think of when I looked at that RENKO chart was a "Pachinko Machine"...

Going by that metaphor, notice, in the end, where all the balls end up - as did the NIKKEI for that matter; March 4, 2010 at 9:03 AM
CV said...: @ahab

Noooooooo... That's just what they'd be expecting!

:-); March 4, 2010 at 9:08 AM
CV said...: Alright, I guess I'd better quit screwing around here and put some charts up into the thread...; March 4, 2010 at 9:10 AM
Anonymous said...: "Going by that metaphor, notice, in the end, where all the balls end up - as did the NIKKEI for that matter"

well they gotta fake it till they make it... where "it" is, who knows, but it does look like it's getting closer. By the way, I'm not the ball, I'm just watching it bounce around.

qqqq; March 4, 2010 at 9:15 AM
Anonymous said...: early meeting-

have to roll- everyone have an exceptional day; March 4, 2010 at 9:21 AM
CV said...: @qqqq

I just tossed up my "working model" charts to give everyone an idea as to how long it'll take for these latest Pachinko balls to be introduced to the force of gravity; March 4, 2010 at 9:22 AM
AmenRa said...: LMAO. Someone is keeping a bid under the market. Each time it slows down and start to head down there is a big push back up.; March 4, 2010 at 9:46 AM
I-Man said...: Grr...

Now why you'd have to go and get me thinking about a Plan B?

It looks so plausible... annoying as all hell, but plausible.

Nice work C.; March 4, 2010 at 9:49 AM
CV said...: @Amen

It's TIME Amen... You're right... They're keeping a bid under this thing until NFP...

Sell the news...

Look at MACYS... It's going to DOUBLE TOP right at that point...

Dumpster Diving!; March 4, 2010 at 9:49 AM
CV said...: @I-Man

I always have a PLAN B...

The thing about it is... This PLAN B doesn't look all that scary to me...

I could even take a 2 week vacation and leave shorts running...

All the risk is to the downside here...

Your 1080 area is correct... 1076-1078 is a huge chart gap and that will get filled one way or another...

I mean, at this point you're basically risking 10 points up for 40 down...; March 4, 2010 at 9:53 AM
CV said...: Today...

Footlocker, Abercrombie & Fitch, Family Dollar, Mortons Restaurants, Aeropostale...

DUMPSTER DIVING!; March 4, 2010 at 9:56 AM
Mannwich said...: Here we go again. Good grief. Thankfully I'll be out of town again next week. I'm well beyond worn out watching this every day.; March 4, 2010 at 9:56 AM
Johnny Retail said...: Retail is a great inwestment opportunity.; March 4, 2010 at 10:02 AM
karen said...: cv, loved your last line, time & boredom...laughing. of course i just see the right shoulder being made on the spx today (in addition to all your wedge scenarios, of course.)

goog and gs are sickening.. but fxp green and uup up!; March 4, 2010 at 10:02 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: This is why California is doomed.

This is the Speaker of the California House:

http://www.sacbee.com/pictures/index.html?image=1; March 4, 2010 at 10:05 AM
Mannwich said...: FAZZY under 17. All the big banks just going to infinity. Nothing can stop them (snark off).; March 4, 2010 at 10:05 AM
Anonymous said...: Budget today for Canada- some cost cuts coming. Loonie, upper range $.97.; March 4, 2010 at 10:08 AM
CV said...: @karen

FWIW - I think you mentioned a 23.30 level on UUP as a possible destination...

I liked that number as ultimate support in this move...

Yesterday, UUP spent the whole day working on a support line, which is why some may feel comfortable with it today... To me, though, it may lose that edge right around this 23.63 level...

If it loses steam, we may yet see that 23.30 level...

Of course, that will mean we could still visit that 23.30 area...

I'd consider that STRONG SUPPORT... And if you could couple that... TIMING WISE with a fairly decent jobs report tomorrow, you'd have the perfect cocktail for a SELL THE NEWS moment...

ie... Dollar hits key support as SPX reaches the 1130 zone...

I think SPX would give back 50 points in two days...; March 4, 2010 at 10:13 AM
CV said...: LB mentioned that scenario yesterday as well...

Dollar hitting support level just as BTE NFP gets reported...

Or... blame it on the Snow...; March 4, 2010 at 10:15 AM
CV said...: I'll have you all know in advance...

If all my charts and analysis are INCORRECT...

This is what I'm going to blame it on...; March 4, 2010 at 10:18 AM
McFearless said...: Oh, down week next week for sure, Manny is out! Every time you go somewhere we get some volatility it seems, ha! You might be our best indicator, we need a name for it though, and some complex formulas and we are on our way....

I'm feeling a bit stoopid this morning so maybe you guys can help me out:

So I heard a lot of mouth foaming type talk about same store sales this morning. In fact, I heard that the same store sales were so strong last month that surely it signaled that the recession was over and any idea of a double dip....that's off the table. And with Easter coming up....well look out, Vanilla bunnies will whizz off the shelves. Peeps, we can't even keep em in stock...

So, I started thinking, dummy that I am. Well, on Route 202 in DE near my office we had a Circuit City close, this store was about 1 mile south of a Best Buy. Just about half a mile North of Best Buy, there was a Tweeter store, that also closed. I thought, gee, could that Best Buy have gotten maybe just a little boost from that, maybe some extra sales from customers that now have less options, or did people rush the Best Buy doors to get the latest "deal"?

Thoughts?

I'm not quite as smart as these analysts that can see through that scenario enough to make a bold claim about the health of the economy.; March 4, 2010 at 10:18 AM
Mannwich said...: @ben: Barclay's Dean Maki was on Bloomie at the gym sounding CERTAIN a double dip was "off the table" in '10. Said he expects a full recovery this year. He might be right, maybe it happens in '11, but I don't know.....; March 4, 2010 at 10:23 AM
McFearless said...: Oh, my point above is also that, unless I'm stoopid to the tenth, I do not believe the DE Circuit City near my office was the only in the country to close.

Right?; March 4, 2010 at 10:24 AM
CV said...: @McF

I swear dude... What you wrote there, you were like IN MY HEAD thinking my thoughts...

First of all... PEEPS... I was just at the supermarket this morning and saw PEEPS on the aisle... With all the snow on the ground I was like "WTF"?

Also... "Same Store Sales"... EXACTLY! When everything is closed except for WalMart, our economy ought to be at (what was your alternate word for "infinity")...

Hell - My gym is buzzing right now (because all the unemployed people gettin' their free checks have more time to work out)...; March 4, 2010 at 10:25 AM
McFearless said...: Manny,

Perhaps....

I'm going to steal the line I've heard Rosie use several times in the last few months:

If this is recovery or "full recovery", whatever the hell that means, I do not want to see what the next downturn looks like.; March 4, 2010 at 10:25 AM
Mannwich said...: @ben: I think we're going to see it whether we want to or not. The question is when? How long can they drag this out?; March 4, 2010 at 10:27 AM
CV said...: @McF

But ben, keep things in perspective... What the hell do you think a Barclays ANALYst is going to say?

"People... the economy is s***, it's never going to recover, so pull all your money out of our brokerage firm and help me to get fired"...

Doubt it...

EFFIN USED CAR SALESMEN!; March 4, 2010 at 10:29 AM
Mannwich said...: @cv: I hear you but after so many of them being SO WRONG about this latest fiasco, you'd think that more of them would take more care to get it right this time? Or does being right or wrong not matter anymore? Are there no consequences for being incompetent and disastrously wrong so that millions lose their ass in the market? Is it the Tyranny of the Incompetent writ large?; March 4, 2010 at 10:32 AM
Mannwich said...: TLT showing strength. Shall I buy some more? Hhhhmmmm.....; March 4, 2010 at 10:33 AM
Mannwich said...: And look at FXP.; March 4, 2010 at 10:33 AM
McFearless said...: C,

Yes, I'm sure you could work Peeps into a future post somehow. I'll be biting the heads off of a few thinking about this convo at some point in the next month. I enjoy an annual Peep chomping.

In case it was missed last night, so there is no confusion when I use the term:

I have decided I will refer to most bullish price outcomes involving inflation or hyperinflation as "going to infinity", it was between that and saying "going to fafillion", (Dr. Evil); March 4, 2010 at 10:34 AM
McFearless said...: C,

Yes, that's true, what should we expect, but, I'm wondering if I'm missing something here, seriously...

One thing I know for sure is that yes, this can extend longer than we expect, but it's certainly not up to "they".; March 4, 2010 at 10:36 AM
CV said...: @Manny

It doesn't matter... In this society thats fraught with INFORMATION OVERLOAD, people forget about things in two seconds...

Earthquake in Chile? Right?

How many people even remember HAITI by now?

So do you really think anyone is going to remember some buttf*** analyst from Barclays? or whether his calls were right? And even if you did remember... Go ahead and try to pull your money out... You'll be faced with a wall of advisors who will warn you of THE TAX CONSEQUENCES of that!

Ha! Good Luck!; March 4, 2010 at 10:36 AM
CV said...: @McF

PEEPS... The first thing I thought of when I saw them?

I said to myself... "Now THERES my image for my Easter Day "Thank You" message to the bloggers...

There... I spoiled the surprise!; March 4, 2010 at 10:38 AM
AmenRa said...: It's too drafty in here. Looks like the S&P wants to close that window from Tuesdays open.; March 4, 2010 at 10:38 AM
CV said...: @Jeff

I'd wait to see what LB is doing on TLT first...

FWIW... I remember when I bought some March 91 calls on that... That's the EXACT number I had in mind... 91 for March opex (with a 30 cent premium)...

So... it might have already reached that level... Don't go by my word though because I haven't looked at it since...; March 4, 2010 at 10:40 AM
AmenRa said...: BTW the 1.685 off the low of 666.79 is 1123.54. I'm just saying...; March 4, 2010 at 10:41 AM
McFearless said...: "you'd think that more of them would take more care to get it right this time?"

But Jeff, remember, virtually nobody saw this coming. And then they fall right back to the same old assumptions, and will all be confused again why they didn't see it coming, and will claim of course, that nobody did.

It's a great game FA's play. All FA's preach that nobody can time the market. This way, when the market drops, you say, nobody can time it.

I've found so far this year that retail clients are slowly starting to get Fed up with this shit. Slowly...; March 4, 2010 at 10:41 AM
Mannwich said...: Agreed cv. ~89 seems to be the magic entry point lately.; March 4, 2010 at 10:42 AM
I-Man said...: TLT and UUP brothaz...; March 4, 2010 at 10:43 AM
Mannwich said...: @ben: Don't you mean the people who DID see this coming (there were MANY, as you know...most of us HERE did), are "nobodies". That's the deal - Tyranny of the Incompetent.; March 4, 2010 at 10:43 AM
CV said...: @Amen (10:38)

That's what I had in mind yesterday when I was talking about either the 1112, or the 1105 levels...

Areas that could still hold support, and close some gaps in the process...

I still think the 1126-1130ish zone is locked and loaded tho...; March 4, 2010 at 10:45 AM
McFearless said...: My virtually nobody saw this coming was snark, esp. since the Rubin comments were linked up yesterday.

Feel like I need to clarify statements like that on the blogs proactively.; March 4, 2010 at 10:46 AM
I-Man said...: 1116 is calling...; March 4, 2010 at 10:46 AM
McFearless said...: Jeff,

beat me to my post, you know what I meant though.; March 4, 2010 at 10:47 AM
McFearless said...: I'm not sure how many of you guys read all the comments over at Daneric's but there is a poster Sugarman, posts with a MSU Helmet avatar, he has recently put up some interesting fibo relationships regarding how many days many of our recent moves have taken. I know some of you here use fibo's all the time so might be worth taking a look at his stuff here and there.; March 4, 2010 at 10:49 AM
Leftback said...: LB has been on the FADE the end of week rally theme for TLT, we are purely long today with no hedges but would look to balance up tomorrow.

Paperback looking really good today, metals/miners are not going to hold up much longer.; March 4, 2010 at 10:49 AM
Mannwich said...: @cv: Oh, I know. I'm sure we'll eventually break that level, but when?

@ben: I know what you meant. Just supporting it.; March 4, 2010 at 10:49 AM
Leftback said...: If anyone wants to sell or short TLT, the 3.50-3.52% area for 10y has been the area of resistance for long bonds. We may see that tomorrow.; March 4, 2010 at 10:52 AM
CV said...: @Amen

You know what's funny?

You know that the DAILY 3LB reversal number is now 1106... and 2 more closes will put it at 1116...

Well... Go take a look at the trendline from 1044, and draw a ruler line through last Thursday's low, and last Friday's support...

Then, follow the support lines forward to today & tomorrow...

Just for fun, of course...; March 4, 2010 at 10:52 AM
CV said...: @ben (10:49)

I pointed out a few weeks ago that DAY 34 from the 1150 January top coordinated with the same day as the LB "bottom" of 2009...

I remember that day... because DANERIC was talking about the 89 HOUR fibo and how that was coordinating with DAY 21...; March 4, 2010 at 10:55 AM
Leftback said...: Did someone mention the LEFTBACK LEAUX?; March 4, 2010 at 10:59 AM
Mannwich said...: Is Blackrock the mysterious Treasurys direct bidder?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/blackrock-mysterious-direct-bidder; March 4, 2010 at 11:05 AM
CV said...: Look at that "shooting star" developing on MACYS on the daily charts...; March 4, 2010 at 11:11 AM
Leftback said...: Next week, M, all Ts to sell off. Then Tu and W AM, we will see a steepener before the 1pm auction of 10y Ts, and the Th auction of 30y Ts.

[This assumes no major meltdown somewhere on Earth or Mars].; March 4, 2010 at 11:14 AM
Leftback said...: BTW, HY is weak today and spreads are widening slightly.; March 4, 2010 at 11:16 AM
Mannwich said...: This market just won't go down. Feels like summer.; March 4, 2010 at 11:25 AM
Leftback said...: Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz; March 4, 2010 at 11:43 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.google.com/trends?q=unexpected&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all; March 4, 2010 at 11:44 AM
AmenRa said...: LB

You should have a primer on bonds post up. Explain how bonds widen or tighten and why. Especially since the bond market is massive compared to equities.; March 4, 2010 at 11:46 AM
Mannwich said...: Unemployment rate going the wrong way in MASS again. Green shoots?; March 4, 2010 at 11:50 AM
Mannwich said...: Oops, here's the link:

http://www.boston.com/business/ticker/2010/03/mass_unemployme_25.html; March 4, 2010 at 11:50 AM
Leftback said...: Ra.

Will try to put something together, unfortunately time is limited and LB is merely spending SPARE ELECTRONS as he oscillates between this blog and other temporo-spatial domains at QUANTUM MECHANICAL velocities.; March 4, 2010 at 11:54 AM
I-Man said...: @ Ra, re: LB Bond Primer

Yes!

Would be greatly appreciated.; March 4, 2010 at 11:54 AM
I-Man said...: What?

Did everyone go back to bed or something?; March 4, 2010 at 11:59 AM
Leftback said...: Macro Man is about to terminate Gary. That guy is so angry that he always misses the argument because he can't wait to throttle someone.

Frighteningly enough he manages OPM. You just know these are the guys that do the panic selling near the bottom.; March 4, 2010 at 12:02 PM
DL said...: Leftback,

Good post from yesterday:

“All you have to do is mention health care reform and the blog is invaded by Anonymous Proctologists intent on performing unlubricated Colorectal Exams”

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Good thing we don’t have Anonymous Proctologists on this site.; March 4, 2010 at 12:13 PM
I-Man said...: Why do I get the feeling that someone in the know is having some fun with the algo's today?

This broadening formation on the 5min SPY chart isnt something we've seen alot of intraday.; March 4, 2010 at 12:27 PM
Leftback said...: Everyone talking about giving up blogs - Bear exhaustion - could a major market turn be in the works?; March 4, 2010 at 12:39 PM
Mannwich said...: @lb: I think so. Bear exhaustion/ennui abounds.; March 4, 2010 at 12:42 PM
Mannwich said...: And crankiness.; March 4, 2010 at 12:42 PM
Leftback said...: Gary is a BITCH - he is like the girlfriend who is always threatening to leave, storming out and then when you get in from the pub she is eating ice cream on your couch, and drinking your vodka, while talking to her friends on the phone about what a d*ck you are.; March 4, 2010 at 12:45 PM
Mannwich said...: A top in gold. These Faber comments seem a little extreme, IMO.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/marc-faber-i-would-recommend-people-buy-every-month-some-gold-ever; March 4, 2010 at 12:46 PM
Mannwich said...: @lb: Sounds like you've had some experience in that department? But haven't we all? ;-); March 4, 2010 at 12:46 PM
Leftback said...: Love these set-ups, risk assets (I'm looking at you, metals and EM currencies) can drop on WTE NFP (risk aversion, oversupply of commodities) or on BTE NFP (dollar rally, carry unwind); March 4, 2010 at 12:48 PM
Leftback said...: Yeah, but Gary didn't look so good in a dress.; March 4, 2010 at 12:49 PM
karen said...: spy has the potential for 3 black candles in a row.. ominous?; March 4, 2010 at 12:50 PM
CV said...: I'm so exhausted that I actually did go back to bed. As I-Man queried at (11:59) and LB mentioned at (11:43)

Plus...I'm having difficulty getting this page to resolve on my browser...

I think Lloyds ALGOS got ahold of my charts and are jamming my system...; March 4, 2010 at 12:51 PM
McFearless said...: I know that girl, at 12:45.; March 4, 2010 at 12:54 PM
McFearless said...: I admit going into this year I def. felt serious bear exhaustion, I don't feel that way right now though but def. did going into January.; March 4, 2010 at 12:56 PM
McFearless said...: I just had about a one hour meeting with a wholesaler from John Hancock funds. It was....hilarious. I was told that I'm only one of two reps (guy says he calls on nearly 600 advisors) that think deflation is an issue. Let me give some basics:

1. Markets are effecient
2. Inflation is coming, just not right now
3. Deleverging is about over, you are wrong if you think we are deflating.
4. Bank loans/floating rate funds are the way to go, not to mention HY
5. Muni's are def. going up because taxes are def. going up.

Most interesting thing though, I asked where the fund flows were coming, top three fund for them, three months running:

John Hancock Classic Value

Look it up, then tell me who you think is buying that fund.

As I said early, we are going to infinity.; March 4, 2010 at 1:00 PM
CV said...: @LB

I don't have any ice cream in the fridge, or vodka in the bar...

So in my case, besides telling her girlfriend what a d*** I am, she's also telling her what a d*** I am for not having any ice cream in the fridge or vodka in the bar...; March 4, 2010 at 1:07 PM
Mannwich said...: On the squid's "reputation". This is rather humorous. Someone needs to tell Lloyd that all the horse's are out of the barn on this one and are not coming back.

Goldman’s Reputation Is Blankfein’s Job No. 1: Jonathan Weil

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=an1S9gwperQc; March 4, 2010 at 1:09 PM
Leftback said...: Gary is really going off today, wonder what MM is going to do?; March 4, 2010 at 1:11 PM
McFearless said...: Manny,

re: Blackrock

I believe based on what someone internally there has been telling me for two years now, that they have had a far bigger hand in all of this than anyone realizes. There is a Vanity Fair article coming out about them soon.....look for it.

I believe behind closed doors people at BlackRock are thankful for Lispy Lloyd, and all the foolish things that have come out of his mouth while trying to protect Goldman's "reputation", which is an illusion anyway if you know the history of that firm.; March 4, 2010 at 1:17 PM
McFearless said...: got this from my biz partner at 9:45 this morning in e-mail:

I just got a call from a client wanting to buy CDS on Greece.

How funny is that!; March 4, 2010 at 1:18 PM
Mannwich said...: @ben: CDS for retail clients? Do you guys even do that? The whole world is a giant fucking casino betting on/against one anothers' demise. Wonderful.; March 4, 2010 at 1:19 PM
McFearless said...: boy, even on our best day over hear I'm not sure it ever got so heated. More than a bit cranky over at MM today.; March 4, 2010 at 1:24 PM
McFearless said...: " CDS for retail clients? Do you guys even do that?"

lol, no way, not only can't we, I'm hardly pushing that kind of money around, lol.; March 4, 2010 at 1:25 PM
McFearless said...: over here, wow, terrible....; March 4, 2010 at 1:26 PM
Anonymous said...: Marketwatch.com:

"Greece's 10 year bond offering is heavily oversubscribed. Inverstors piling in. And, Trichet praises Greece and warns against IMF role"

That's it! Greece's problems are over. Move on people, nothing to see here. LOL.; March 4, 2010 at 1:30 PM
McFearless said...: My biz partner asked him:

Do you know what a Credit Default Swap is

response:

is that a CDS?

I think he was probably hearing some "actionable" advice from CNBC. Isn't that part of their pitch, that the advice is actionable, sort of like that Buffett gem:

"the best thing to own is a good business"

That is actionable people!; March 4, 2010 at 1:31 PM
McFearless said...: @anon 1:30,

If this doesn't reveal a lingering bubble mentality I have no idea what would.; March 4, 2010 at 1:32 PM
Leftback said...: J. Retail buying CDS = time to get 3 x long the underlying.

This is a bad-tempered grumbling uncorrelated market, this can't last long.; March 4, 2010 at 1:33 PM
DL said...: McFearless @ 1:24

The healthcare debate brings out the worst in people.; March 4, 2010 at 1:33 PM
Mannwich said...: @ben: The Idiot Bubble rolls onward.

@DL: When life/death is at stake, people tend to get a little cranky. I hope you never become afflicted with a chronic disease and then have to wrangle with the insurers to get coverage, but then again, aren't you in the insurance biz?; March 4, 2010 at 1:35 PM
DL said...: "time to get 3 x long the underlying"

Or, buy the Euro.

I think a long EUR/USD position will pay off in the next several months for someone not using leverage. (With leverage, it could be a very bumpy ride).; March 4, 2010 at 1:35 PM
CV said...: @ben

How could it ever get too heated over here when all I do is put up clips of bears riding horses, and bulls scrounging around through dumpsters...

Not to mention the occasional AIRPLANE youtube, or MACGRUBER episodes...; March 4, 2010 at 1:36 PM
DL said...: Mannwich,

It's not just about healthcare.

It's also about much higher taxes to pay for all the subsidies.; March 4, 2010 at 1:37 PM
Leftback said...: Germany WANTS the Euro lower or exports will grind to a halt and they will end up in the DEFLATION TRAP. The noise is all political theatre and if the German banks are in trouble there will be a bailout.

LB is frightened by the idea of emotionally unstable money managers running $Billions at large pension funds. This is very scary.; March 4, 2010 at 1:40 PM
Mannwich said...: @DL I'm not in favor of what's been proposed either but we have to be smart and resourceful enough to come up with an imperfect plan that WORKS. It's all about the will to do it. We no longer have that will to do anything big in this country. Too much partisan yelling and screaming at each other. Nobody wants to give an inch. It's going to really blow up someday.; March 4, 2010 at 1:41 PM
Mannwich said...: @lb: That's why I got a good chuckle about Gary's "professionals" comment on MM's blog. Is he out of his mind? I wouldn't want that maniac running $1 of my money.; March 4, 2010 at 1:42 PM
DL said...: “Germany WANTS the Euro lower”

Perhaps.

But given all the negative sentiment on the Euro, a big rally has got to be in the offing. Once that runs its course, anything’s possible.; March 4, 2010 at 1:43 PM
Mannwich said...: @lb: I asked that very thing about the Euro weeks ago. Wouldn't a lower Euro benefit their exports? I realize they don't want a Euro crash but they have to be in favor of a slowly sliding currency at this point, no?; March 4, 2010 at 1:45 PM
karen said...: it seems very clear to me that the euro is going down and the dollar up.. i wouldn't be surprised to see the euro at 130 on $xeu by next week.; March 4, 2010 at 1:46 PM
DL said...: Mannwich,

My approach:

1) let people buy insurance across state lines;

2) rein in the trial lawyers;

3) let the states provide subsidies if they want.

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

If the Dems were willing to do the foregoing, I think the Republicans would be willing to provide some additional subsidy at the Federal level.; March 4, 2010 at 1:48 PM
Leftback said...: Sorry, DL, you are a smart dude but you are wrong. Karen is correct.

The Euro clearly just had a nice little short covering rally and now it is back to business as usual. KING DOLLAR, the BUCKY SUPREMACY.

It is the turn of the EUROZONE, Gaston and Fritz, to benefit from a spot of currency devaluation. Gold will be rising in € and £, not $, for a while.; March 4, 2010 at 1:50 PM
karen said...: and the euro is not going to crash fcol! $xeu at 110 still maintains a upward trendline from the 01/02 lows...; March 4, 2010 at 1:51 PM
DL said...: Leftback,

It's all a question of time frame.

Karen's going out 7 days or less. That doesn't mean that the Euro can't be higher in June, for example. (Hence my remark about not using leverage).; March 4, 2010 at 1:52 PM
karen said...: look, on healthcare, I can only say this.. model it after auto insurance...; March 4, 2010 at 1:53 PM
McFearless said...: @DL,

Yes, I'm with Lefty/Karen, I don't see Eur/Usd as a profitable trade at all in the coming months. But hey, that's what makes a market.

I do agree that the healthcare debate brings out the worst in people, mainly because it turns emotional and then you are just pissed, not making clear points.; March 4, 2010 at 1:55 PM
CV said...: Yeat another day of anemic volume...; March 4, 2010 at 1:55 PM
Leftback said...: The strong resistance zone for TLT lies between 93.19 and 93.72, so if we do get into that range you might be well advised to sell/hedge.

Remarkable we have seen no weakness at the long end this week, with no auctions and supply of 10/30y next week. I think that is quite telling.

DL, if we do eventually get a +ve jobs number, Bucky will go into orbit.; March 4, 2010 at 1:56 PM
McFearless said...: @C,

If you couldn't laugh at the picture of the bears on the horses, you have no sense of humor...; March 4, 2010 at 1:56 PM
AmenRa said...: I-Man

That window (gap from 1116.51-1116.11) is calling out to the S&P. Come here, you know you want to, just a little farther...; March 4, 2010 at 1:56 PM
Leftback said...: "model it after auto insurance..."

FLO says "DISCOUNT" !; March 4, 2010 at 1:56 PM
karen said...: DL, the euro will be falling overall thru the summer.. i just made clear it can fall to 110 on a slow steady ramp and still the decade trend will be up. i would reassess the dollar move if it reached $usd 85. just my opinion as i see it in the charts.. the coming months will tell the story and may have either of us singing different tunes before long!; March 4, 2010 at 1:58 PM
DL said...: McFearless,

“I don't see Eur/Usd as a profitable trade at all in the coming months”

FXE is currently @ $135. You really think it won’t see $140 any time in the next three months?

(I don’t own any, BTW).; March 4, 2010 at 1:59 PM
Mannwich said...: In the meantime, I will continue to work out like a fiend so that as little of my money goes to the crappy health "care" system that's in place. Gotta use anything for motivation, right? That's mine.; March 4, 2010 at 2:00 PM
AmenRa said...: McF

I'm still wondering how the horses felt after that. A modern version of the scorpion and the turtle.; March 4, 2010 at 2:00 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

So was the 1126 gap yesterday... So great, we're range bound...

Locked in a closet with two open windows... HOW APPROPRIATE for this market!; March 4, 2010 at 2:02 PM
Mannwich said...: @karen: If it goes to 110, Europe vaca here I come!; March 4, 2010 at 2:03 PM
AmenRa said...: OT: Is it me or does reuters.com take way too long to load?; March 4, 2010 at 2:05 PM
Mannwich said...: Another NY governor bites the dust? What's somewhat interesting is that I don't think anyone even blinks an eyelash at this stuff anymore. Next!

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goodbye-david-patterson-governors-top-aide-holds-emergency-meeting-entire-staff-topic-unknow; March 4, 2010 at 2:07 PM
CV said...: Here's CV's version of a good HC system...; March 4, 2010 at 2:08 PM
Leftback said...: "I'm still wondering how the horses felt after that."

Most fillies enjoy a good BEAR BACK RIDE.; March 4, 2010 at 2:13 PM
Mannwich said...: Yellow card.; March 4, 2010 at 2:17 PM
CV said...: Well if it is any consolation to anyone...

My cheap little penny stock (that I hold for such occasions), is ON FIRE today... Up 30%...

It always does that when the market is about to turn...

It did it right before the KT swoon, then again in January... Usually about a 2 day lead time...; March 4, 2010 at 2:19 PM
Mack said...: Smith and Wesson (swhc) is up about 18% since andy posted that graph a few weeks ago...might be selling guns in macys soon..; March 4, 2010 at 2:21 PM
CV said...: @Amen

BIDU hit 525 today...; March 4, 2010 at 2:23 PM
I-Man said...: Karen I love it when you comment at MM.; March 4, 2010 at 2:24 PM
Leftback said...: The KT makes LB swoon....; March 4, 2010 at 2:26 PM
CV said...: Andy's Basic Math is very good; March 4, 2010 at 2:27 PM
AmenRa said...: CV

Obi Wan to Baidu: "Use the force".; March 4, 2010 at 2:28 PM
Mack said...: -cv

you are a great fabulous resource for some funny stuff..; March 4, 2010 at 2:29 PM
I-Man said...: CV is the Doogie Howser, MD of random funny internet links.; March 4, 2010 at 2:30 PM
CV said...: @Mack

While we're on the subject of MATH PROBLEMS...

Here's the math computation that Lloyds ALGOS ought to learn...; March 4, 2010 at 2:33 PM
Mannwich said...: This is painful. Off to the gym.; March 4, 2010 at 2:39 PM
McFearless said...: Manny,

Seriously, just go out of town early, that's when all the good stuff goes on.; March 4, 2010 at 2:43 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

Doogie Howser?
Explained by Jeff Spicoli; March 4, 2010 at 2:44 PM
Leftback said...: Chart Lovers Anonymous will enjoy this - so good I book-marked it.

Nikkei in the 90s

For those wondering, I think it's a different GARY.; March 4, 2010 at 2:45 PM
DL said...: No one here is ruling out another 50% decline (in SPX) sometime in the next 5 years.; March 4, 2010 at 2:57 PM
CV said...: FWIW...

I was just doing some calculations...

Back in January, when 1150 was hit, a higher level was actually hit on the SPY than what eventually printed on $SPX (after a little dip and return)...

Right now we are at 230 trading hours since that SPY high was reached... All you FIBO lovers out there know what 233 means...

JTOL; March 4, 2010 at 3:03 PM
karen said...: 8 Happy Stories from the Recession

also, did anyone catch this line at TBP this morning?

"We’ve recently seen some noise about the “mixed” economic data. Looking at initial unemployment claims, this is not an unusual factor at this stage post-recession."

I wanted to take issue with the "post-recession" posit.. but decided not to bother.; March 4, 2010 at 3:05 PM
Leftback said...: K.,

The 80-82 was a "twin recession", we double-dipped.
so was 29-32, and that's where we are headed.

Japan as you can see was a Multiple Header....; March 4, 2010 at 3:07 PM
Leftback said...: Tomorrow is the most important employment number in history ...

since the last one...; March 4, 2010 at 3:12 PM
AmenRa said...: CV

from the actual hour it was hit or the day it was hit?; March 4, 2010 at 3:15 PM
DL said...: lb @ 3:12

Just like every "State of the Union" speech is the most important one in history.; March 4, 2010 at 3:16 PM
I-Man said...: The NFP numbers sure have been anticlimactic lately...

Maybe it will get its catalyst mojo back tomorrow...; March 4, 2010 at 3:16 PM
DL said...: I'll be surprised if we don't get a peak-to-trough move of at least 1% in the SPX tomorrow.; March 4, 2010 at 3:23 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Greece says 5-yr bond 3 times oversubscribed

Greece passes key test with successful 10-year bond issue, a day after new austerity cuts

...One tiny thought passed through today. Are the buyers of these bonds thinking that, like the US, these new Greek bonds will not be allowed to default?; March 4, 2010 at 3:24 PM
CV said...: @Amen

The SPY (not $spx) print I'm referring to was on the last candle of the day on January 14th...

It's weird because one chart I have has 115.25, but another I have has 115.14... Regardless, by all my 'looks' THAT was the high print... The $spx (on 1/19) printed a marginally higher high...

Anyway, counting from the last 60 minite SPY candle from 1/14, we are 230 60 minute candles from that...; March 4, 2010 at 3:28 PM
Leftback said...: The only bad outcome for BEARS would be a GOLDILOCKS number, not too good (so QE/ZIRP must continue for ever) but not too bad (so no flight to quality). That would hurt.

LB is trading the metals/miners, which could be hurt by BTE, or WTE !!! Holding plenty of trading cash in case we need to hedge our Ts.; March 4, 2010 at 3:29 PM
McFearless said...: First, if you haven't signed up for Club EWI, what the hell are you waiting for?

It's free, and even if you don't like EW, or want to use it, there are some nice TA resources in there you can get for free.

Anyway, for people that have signed up, this is a fantastic video:

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/03/03/Wave-Principle-Crash-Course-There-s-No-Going-Back.aspx; March 4, 2010 at 3:29 PM
CV said...: @DL

The next COMMENT I make on this blog will be the most important one in history...; March 4, 2010 at 3:30 PM
Leftback said...: Personally LB would love a P3 - now this is for ONE REASON ONLY... so that Ts would rally massively and LB could GIVE GARY AND ANON THE FINGER,

Big STYLE.; March 4, 2010 at 3:32 PM
karen said...: look at the amounts owed on the LB (Laguna Beach) homes that are off to auction for fun.; March 4, 2010 at 3:37 PM
WolfStreet said...: re:bears. Getting really frustrating trying to be "contrarian" bear here..

Maybe there will be some time in the near future when the "bear" word will be nearly forgotten, only a "legend" that people will speak about here and there. THAT's when all this stuff crashes right? :p; March 4, 2010 at 3:37 PM
DL said...: McFearless,

How 'bout if you post some of Prechter's comments here?

(Don't worry, they'll sue CV, not you).; March 4, 2010 at 3:37 PM
72bat said...: @ lb
use this one of you like
…………………./´¯/)
………………..,/¯../
………………./…./
…………./´¯/’…’/´¯¯`·¸
………./’/…/…./……./¨¯\
……..(’(…´…´…. ¯~/’…’)
………\……………..’…../
……….”…\………. _.·´
…………\…………..(
…………..\………….\…

anyone remember who we have to credit for this art?; March 4, 2010 at 3:39 PM
72bat said...: ..if you like... sheesh; March 4, 2010 at 3:40 PM
I-Man said...: That would be franklin420d...; March 4, 2010 at 3:41 PM
DL said...: I'm hoping for WTE tomorrow.; March 4, 2010 at 3:42 PM
McFearless said...: Did you all see there are triple leveraged treasury ETF's now?; March 4, 2010 at 3:43 PM
karen said...: i'm still hoping for a third black candle on the spy.. but it is currently in the clear, literally.; March 4, 2010 at 3:44 PM
McFearless said...: DL,

I'm not sure I'm following, 3:37.; March 4, 2010 at 3:46 PM
DL said...: McFearless,

I holding out for the quadruple.; March 4, 2010 at 3:46 PM
CV said...: @Amen

Need to get that higher close to bump up the DAILY 3lb a notch...; March 4, 2010 at 3:47 PM
DL said...: McFearless,

Could you not post some of Prechter's comments that are available by subscription only?; March 4, 2010 at 3:48 PM
karen said...: spy volume lowest since thurs jan 14...; March 4, 2010 at 3:48 PM
DL said...: Either the people buying now know something, or else Lloyd is trying to fake us all out.; March 4, 2010 at 3:51 PM
CV said...: @karen

see my JAN 14th comments above as they apply to SPY & FIBOS; March 4, 2010 at 3:53 PM
McFearless said...: DL,

No, I could post them, but I don't have permission since it's a pay service. Do a free trial membership if you really want to see it, you'll have 30 days to access the last 4-5 months of writings, if you don't like it just cancel before you get charged, it only takes a few minutes to sign up.

Just a warning though, most of Prechter's stuff is more big picture or about socionomics. Seems to be something a lot of people misunderstand about him, outside of the few times he's said to go short, he does not really give any sort of investment advice.; March 4, 2010 at 3:56 PM
CV said...: @karen

(3:28) post is what I was referring to...; March 4, 2010 at 3:57 PM
karen said...: the other odd think about the spy on jan 14 is is bounced on a touch of the 5 ema.. just as it did today..; March 4, 2010 at 3:57 PM
Leftback said...: McF: what are the tickers for those hedge-worthy bond busters?; March 4, 2010 at 3:59 PM
McFearless said...: I've already taken liberties with some of my comments as they have sometimes been mirror images of what Prechter says, which I also shouldn't do.; March 4, 2010 at 3:59 PM
DL said...: McFearless,

You would have the undying gratitude of everyone who posts here. How can you put a price on that?; March 4, 2010 at 3:59 PM
karen said...: even more weird.. the last three spy lows.. 112.00, 112.02, 112.03.
that's some calculated firepower, if you ask me.; March 4, 2010 at 4:00 PM
McFearless said...: Lefty,

TWOL and TWOZ; March 4, 2010 at 4:00 PM
CV said...: Alright!

Time marches on...

Stuck in a room surrounded by open windows (with windows wide open on both sides)...

3 trading hours to 1150 + 233...

CV is off to the gym to contemplate the senseless "knee jerk" reactions to NFP tomorrow...

AMEN RA's DAILY CANDLE WRAP at 5:30

CV back later... Oh & I forgot to mention today
Maryland 79 - Duke 72

FEAR THE TURTLE!; March 4, 2010 at 4:02 PM
I-Man said...: I was more afraid of the uni's they busted out last night...; March 4, 2010 at 4:03 PM
McFearless said...: DL,

Are you saying you'd help bail me out if I got hit with a copyright fine? lol.

Are you really Raj Raj in disguise?; March 4, 2010 at 4:04 PM
DL said...: McF,

It's O.K.

Just trying to be a nuisance.; March 4, 2010 at 4:08 PM
karen said...: i believe these last 3 spy candles form a triple high wave.. 3 days of indecision on very little volume.. serious topping/tipping action could be seen tomorrow..; March 4, 2010 at 4:13 PM
Mannwich said...: Newsflash for everyone: Jim Paulsen at WFC is STILL bullish. Saw him on Bloomie at the gym. Now THAT'S something new and different.; March 4, 2010 at 4:39 PM
Mannwich said...: Everyone on Bloomie fired up about Abercrombie, Macy's and Aeropostale results. Shocked people ventured out into "blizzards" to go shopping. Bloomberg is barely any better than CNBC these days. The only reason they are better is because CNBC has gotten even worse during that time.; March 4, 2010 at 4:43 PM
CV said...: I'm actually back...

@karen

I gotta believe you are absolutely correct with your (4:13)...

It just seems like the stars are lining up and the setup is perfect...

Based on FIBOS... I'd probably have around the 3rd hour of trading to be where the eventual TOP is made... And most likely between the 1129-1130 level...

That would solve many equations...

I can't wait to read DANERIC tonight... I've gotta thing he's going to be all over it... (especially with regards to the 233 hours)...; March 4, 2010 at 4:45 PM
karen said...: i hope you all are busy reading that james rickards interview posted at ZH:
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/03/morning-audibles-3410-dumpster-dive.html#comments; March 4, 2010 at 4:46 PM
karen said...: you read that rickards interview and you will never doubt a P3..; March 4, 2010 at 4:47 PM
Leftback said...: If we get a BTE, we might see a HEAD FAKE to the NORTH, before BUCKY gets rolling and takes all the commodity stocks DEEP DOWN SOUTH.; March 4, 2010 at 4:52 PM
Leftback said...: Now SHORT SILVER is a winner, see b/c it wears TWO HATS.

It's INDUSTRIAL like copper, so if we get WTE, silver/copper takes the fall. IF we get a BTE, then Bucky rallies and gold/silver experience a Clavadista.

If we get a GOLDILOCKS, then LB is f***ed. That's where stops come in.; March 4, 2010 at 4:59 PM
72bat said...: karen -
rickards zh link?; March 4, 2010 at 5:00 PM
I-Man said...: Thx for the link up on the Rickards tip, K.; March 4, 2010 at 5:03 PM
Leftback said...: Someone paste this into the Wrap for LB?

The Bond Report 3.4.10

Today credit markets were quiet again, unless you were in ATHENS, where they were buying Greeks and selling Bunds and Gilts. In the US bond markets we saw a pronounced flattening of the curve, with 2-3y selling off ahead of next week's auction of 3y Ts, and long bonds well bid ahead of what MAY be a sloppy employment report.

Corpies: LQD 0.05%; AGG 0.18%; JNK -0.15%; HYG 0.08%;
Govies: TLT 0.53%; IEI 0.03%; TIP 0.11%

We did nothing but we are poised to hedge tomorrow if (a) there is a screamingly GOOD number, (ha ha ha) or (b) a HORRIBLE number causes Ts to rally into resistance zones - 3.45-3.50% on the 10y.

Good luck, all. Respectfully submitted, LB.

Remember, gentlemen prefer bonds. KAREN prefers Tequila and Tonic.; March 4, 2010 at 5:08 PM
Mannwich said...: Great interview, karen. Wow.; March 4, 2010 at 5:10 PM

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Morning Audibles 3.4.10 - Dumpster Dive? Well it IS 'Oscar' week!

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