TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 3.2.10 - Tractor Beam vs. "The Horse You Rode In On"

Morning Audibles 3.2.10 - Tractor Beam vs. "The Horse You Rode In On"

Most of you know that despite CV's PENCHANT for "land spreadin' out so far & wide" (& thus the inclination to say to tell bankers & ANALysts to) "keep Manhattan just give me that countryside"...

You might also know that I tend to dabble in some chart work (on the SLPY)... For a couple of weeks now, I have been talking about CHART GAPS at the 1116 - 1126 levels (and how those might come into play in an extended P2 scenario which effectively tests the resolve of BEARS that the January 1150 level was indeed [or was NOT], the pinnacle of the P2 rally). You could say that CV almost assigned his "down home" version of a TRACTOR BEAM on those levels...

Well... Here we are, in front of those levels... I gotta say... It's TOUGH being a BEAR in this kind of market... For every day now (for almost a year running), it's like the world is against you... Worse, "the world" has the 3 stooges (Ben, Barry, & Curly ["Timmeh"]) at their disposal... It's like EVERY SINGLE DAY they think they have the power to say to BEARS...

Meanwhile... You're like... ("Jane...Get me off this crazy thing!")...

CV is going to try and hold on for a bit longer and ride this pony to the finish... Otherwise, again I will be the UNCLE of the my featured post from a few weeks ago... But I can say that even in the frozen tundra of the winter, it's possible to scratch for food...

But aren't BEARS supposed to be hibernating in the winter anyway?

SPX HYPOTHESIS - Updated 3.2.10 (1:00PM)

273 comments:

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Anonymous said...: DL-

OK I give up-

how is it ever going to decline? As far as I can tell the game is to just keep up w/ the payments-

the next step is the USG getting a payday loan; March 2, 2010 at 2:53 PM
Leftback said...: LB is very flattered... he may even be blushing... thank you.

Gold at a 6 week high. Good time to initiate the old SILVER SHORT ???; March 2, 2010 at 2:54 PM
Mannwich said...: And in other "news" - Reality still bites after all this time......Who knew? There are just WAY too many things that could (and likely will) blow this recoveryless recovery and market to kingdom come. Add this one to the list. Me-thinks it will take a miracle to get out of this further unscathed.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/03/new-credit-suisse-arm-recast-chart.html; March 2, 2010 at 2:55 PM
karen said...: speaking of getting what one wants if one has the upper hand: a strong dollar is in china's best interest, is it not?; March 2, 2010 at 2:56 PM
karen said...: a strong dollar is in china's best interest.. don't forget.. nothing has changed the dollar up trend...; March 2, 2010 at 3:01 PM
karen said...: is uup oversold to gld? seems it..; March 2, 2010 at 3:03 PM
Mack said...: anyone cherry picking some srs or zsl today?; March 2, 2010 at 3:06 PM
Mannwich said...: Are other comments being eaten? Mine are...; March 2, 2010 at 3:11 PM
Mannwich said...: SRS. Ugh. What a total pig.; March 2, 2010 at 3:12 PM
I-Man said...: Definitely something up with blogger today... not just you Manny, JAH jokes aside.; March 2, 2010 at 3:14 PM
Leftback said...: You can make a good argument for shorting metals and miners here. Market is toppy and the dollar rally is set to resume, so those are the obvious plays.; March 2, 2010 at 3:14 PM
CV said...: @karen

Tie me kangaroo down sport...; March 2, 2010 at 3:17 PM
McFearless said...: re: ZSL,

I'm not adding yet fwiw, there are some good fibo targets that have yet to be met with silver, and while I agree with Karen, that the primary trend of the dollar is up, in the very near term that's up for debate, making silver not so easy on the entry.; March 2, 2010 at 3:17 PM
karen said...: will wonders never cease? dht became a holding company today and the shares rally over 6%..; March 2, 2010 at 3:24 PM
DL said...: Karen @ 3:01

“a strong dollar is in china's best interest”

That’s what everyone says. But the U.S. economy is just 25% of the world’s economy. Seems like there are other places that China could be putting its money besides U.S. Treasuries.; March 2, 2010 at 3:28 PM
Mannwich said...: @I-Man: I'll bet JAH doesn't have his posts eaten. ;-); March 2, 2010 at 3:36 PM
CV said...: @DL

Yeah the could build empty cities with it (with $3.25 copper - bidding against THEMSELVES to achieve that price)...; March 2, 2010 at 3:36 PM
McFearless said...: did you seriously just say:

the US economy is "just" 25% of the global economy?
lol.....

US treasuries were never a good deal, sadly, as governments are classic for making bad "investments" they (China) got into buying gold AFTER it went from 250 to over 1,100. I think they've been buying some copper they don't need as well.

Tungsten, maybe that's a spot.....

But right, I know, they are still getting in cheap because in 10 years we'll get inflation.....; March 2, 2010 at 3:38 PM
CV said...: @Manny

Are posts really getting eaten?

I'm not sure how "blogspot" functions behind the scenes... All I know is that the price is reasonable... IT'S FREE! :-); March 2, 2010 at 3:39 PM
CV said...: @McF

When copper hits $1000 and ounce, we can melt down the Statue of Liberty and pay off our debts...; March 2, 2010 at 3:41 PM
McFearless said...: I haven't had any posts eaten here.

Whether or not I should be posting is another story.; March 2, 2010 at 3:41 PM
Mannwich said...: @cv: It's happening at the other site as well. Eventually most of them eventually appear though. Something with blogger today, I think.; March 2, 2010 at 3:43 PM
Mannwich said...: Or maybe BR is secretly moderating both blogs?; March 2, 2010 at 3:43 PM
CV said...: @Manny

Have you checked GERMANY? Maybe your posts went there...; March 2, 2010 at 3:44 PM
McFearless said...: Could have something to do with Goldman Sachs manny. Those guys.....

Or maybe RenTech's computer got ahold of your comments or something and built some super algo off a retail investors computer strokes.; March 2, 2010 at 3:48 PM
Lord Blankfiend said...: Nothing unusual with the blog. Carry on. Just interested in your trades.; March 2, 2010 at 3:50 PM
CV said...: @Manny

I made a post over at BR's yesterday (but it got eaten by the moderator)...

It was to "cognos"

Cognos had made a comment about there being hardly any commments on the particular subject (save for his own)... I replied...

---

@cognos
COMMENTS - Here's one...; March 2, 2010 at 3:51 PM
I-Man said...: @ Lord:

"Your suit and tie cant cover up your shark fin."

-Midnite; March 2, 2010 at 3:52 PM
Mannwich said...: @cv: LOL. That's great. Folks like "cognos" have literally ruined BR's blog. BR seems fine with it but the comments section used to be one of the best parts of the blog.; March 2, 2010 at 3:53 PM
CV said...: Go ahead and try to moderate that s*** out!

HA!; March 2, 2010 at 3:53 PM
Anonymous said...: cognos-

yes- tool is one word you could use; March 2, 2010 at 3:54 PM
Mannwich said...: I did give this blog and the other "sister" site's URL to Mike in NOLA via email. He commented the other day just how much "different" the crowd was at BR's blog these days. I told him that most of us were over here these days. Hopefully he shows up too.; March 2, 2010 at 3:54 PM
DL said...: McFearless @ 3:38,

Yes, 25% is a lot for one country. But that still leaves a lot of other places for them to sell their stuff.

It just seems like the Chinese are going to lose a lot of money as we devalue our currency over the next 10+ years (and beyond).; March 2, 2010 at 3:55 PM
I-Man said...: Long Mike in NOLA.

Short Cognos.; March 2, 2010 at 3:55 PM
CV said...: @Manny

I still like reading BR's blog (and the articles and things he digs up)...

But of course you're right... It's very difficult to comment there... If the subject matter is IN DEPTH, I hardly have the time to write something detailed and/or intelligent...

Or, if you just try to use subtle sarcasm or humor, you get edited out...; March 2, 2010 at 3:56 PM
Mannwich said...: @cv: Oh, I'm still a regular at TBP as well and his posts are all still top quality, but the comments section is a mere shell of its former self. Maybe it's a combination of the old crowd moving on and the fact that the bears have been beaten down so much (sign of a top?) but it's still not the same nevertheless.; March 2, 2010 at 3:57 PM
DL said...: Mannwich @ 3:53

“the comments section used to be one of the best parts of the blog”.

If CV were a bigshot like BR, he’d have to screen comments, too.; March 2, 2010 at 3:58 PM
Anonymous said...: CV's afternoon theory is a good one. Will we putter between 1116 and 1128 for the next few days (in a pattern similar to the January top) before the trap door springs?; March 2, 2010 at 4:00 PM
Mannwich said...: @DL: But I don't think the comments really got that out of hand over there most of the time. Sometimes they did, for sure, but most of the time it was some really good back and forth going on. The need for complete control sort of kills a good blog after a while, IMO. You cannibalize your own blog by driving away the very visitors that partially made it so great.; March 2, 2010 at 4:01 PM
Anonymous said...: cognos supposedly works for a hedge fund and vilified all those that didn't partake in the 2009 rally- saying it was there to be made-

easy to say- after the fact- especially that many had lost much in the dot com and housing bust and may have understandably stepped aside-

dude has zero empathy for others; March 2, 2010 at 4:02 PM
Mannwich said...: For all the hoopla about car sales being up, this doesn't look so good to me. What am I missing?

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/03/us-light-vehicle-sales-104-million-saar.html; March 2, 2010 at 4:03 PM
I-Man said...: Cognos is a douche and we really shouldnt be wasting Jah air on his lame ass.; March 2, 2010 at 4:03 PM
DL said...: Mannwich,

I've been deleted over there a few times, and for no good reason. Another time, my post got delayed about 12 hours.

Here, I can be as obnoxious as I want (not that I am very often).; March 2, 2010 at 4:03 PM
Leftback said...: Short Cognos: Long KAREN, with leverage, obviously.

LB put a toe into a short (metals and miners). What if we get Greek tragedy, Euro squeeze ends - profit taking and then a "BTE" from ADP tomorrow followed by a crude inventory build. DOLLAR RALLY....

then FRIDAY, shock/horror when NFP is WTE, dump the banks and SPX.; March 2, 2010 at 4:05 PM
McFearless said...: @DL,

I find that to be an odd statement coming from you. I'd figure someone like yourself would say it was all part of the plan, to make China lose as we devalue. Even if you don't believe that can happen, why make that statement now, the dollar has been getting devalued for 80 years!

I agree though generally, it was foolish of China to put so much capital into the US.

re: Cognos

My take is he's actually a pretty bright cat, just extremely ignorant as to reality....Bernanke-like, for example. He still carries the attitude that since he apparently "runs money", he's the only one with an opinion worth anything.

I seem to recall one HarryWanger that had that attitude back in the fall of last year, when we were first told us he ran an investment company as he went on to explain why we'd rocket higher by year end, those posts are there for all to see. Much like Harry, I doubt cognos runs anything more than his mouth.; March 2, 2010 at 4:06 PM
Mannwich said...: @DL: Yeah, I don't get that, but I think that BR has clamped down since he got to be a big shot. Maybe it was inevitable. Can't have those heavy-hitter clients and prospects turned away by TOO much honesty, I guess. I think that's mainly why the blog has been toned down. Probably unavoidable if one wants to be a big shit IN the industry. Can't upset the apple cart TOO MUCH and remain a player.; March 2, 2010 at 4:06 PM
Mannwich said...: And I'm not necessarily blaming him for it. We all gotta do what we gotta do.; March 2, 2010 at 4:07 PM
Anonymous said...: I-Man-

when you're right your're right

re BR-

when he deletes a post- you need to call him on it in another post-

I still visit over there from time to time; March 2, 2010 at 4:08 PM
CV said...: @DL

The last thing I ever have to worry about is becoming a "bigshot" in this industry...

So I have that going for me... (last line 4u ahab)...

Speaking of BIGSHOTS...

AMEN RA'S DAILY CANDLE WRAP UP NEXT at 5:30

---

CV off to the gym... Another day of waiting for the same scenario that most here have become abundantly aware of...

It could happen any day, or any time now... It could happen tomorrow - or, it could be pushed clear to Monday...

NFP coming on Friday, which means that CV is looking for that "moment" to perhaps occur that the conspiracy theorists love to flock around... That is, that the number gets "leaked", the market breaks some of the short term technicals, ONLY to rebound and resume the EXACT SAME WEDGE pattern it was on before...

I'll be watching for that... I think TIME is the key element here... Time is expired when triangle edges converge...; March 2, 2010 at 4:08 PM
DL said...: "Long KAREN, with leverage".

That conjures up some strange images.; March 2, 2010 at 4:10 PM
I-Man said...: Todd Harrison would be a good role model for anyone seeking to be IN the industry, yet ABOVE it.; March 2, 2010 at 4:10 PM
I-Man said...: @ DL

Care to elaborate on your 4:10?

Actually, please dont.; March 2, 2010 at 4:11 PM
Leftback said...: Remember that THURSDAY is the new FRIDAY, if NFP stinks we will see the sell off the day before.

Euro, oil and gold shorts must have been totally eliminated by today, oh look here comes the elevator....; March 2, 2010 at 4:13 PM
I-Man said...: @ Ahab

And if I'm wrong...

I was really just high, and meant to be right.

:); March 2, 2010 at 4:13 PM
DL said...: “if NFP stinks we will see the sell-off the day before”.

No doubt there are a few people at BLS in a position to sell that information for big money.; March 2, 2010 at 4:22 PM
Leftback said...: The Bond Report 3.2.10

A moderately good day for most US corporate bonds, and govies were more or less flat. Not a lot to add really, let's skip it.; March 2, 2010 at 4:23 PM
Mack said...: caldaro's blog has a bullish spin today; March 2, 2010 at 4:24 PM
Leftback said...: Either BLS leaks or the initial claims number tells the tale. Same deal.; March 2, 2010 at 4:24 PM
DL said...: “if NFP stinks we will see the sell off the day before”.
.......................

I used to know a guy who worked at the FDA… I offered to give him money if he could give me info about pending drug approvals. He told me that he could get me the info but that he couldn’t tell me when the info would be released to the public. So I told him to forget it.; March 2, 2010 at 4:26 PM
McFearless said...: @I-man,

Yeah, Todd Harrison is rock solid.

@Manny,

I really think that's what it's about re your 4:06, BR had to tone it down a bit when they started opening FusionIQ offices all over the country, according to 72bat what he was saying on the blogs and then doing in the portfolios were very different, it's the best conclusion as to why I could come up with. When you do that (expand a WS business like that) it takes a really long time before people let you just spout off and say whatever you want. There are just....rules. I'm actually not even sure how he's able to put some of the stuff on his blog that he does since he's got to be registered with FINRA. T

here's a reason why a guy like Marc Faber isn't running little branch Faber offices all over the country, for example.

I think that's how it works, if you want to make a lot of money on the street you need to follow the general rules of how to play, I'm sure in face to face meetings with prospects he's very blunt with people about what is going on, or I'm guessing he is.

I bet if I had experience slinging crack rock I could give you another comparison...; March 2, 2010 at 4:27 PM
McFearless said...: @Mack,

I noticed yesterday Tony had changed medium term trend to favor the bulls, he's been late on every major turn since 2007 fwiw....overall lots of good calls though, and his weekend posts about the Grand Supercycle's are really fun to read.; March 2, 2010 at 4:28 PM
McFearless said...: Information leaks equal winning trades 100% the time?

Proof please?

I think I can create a far more compelling argument that you'd lose more often than not if you knew the news before it came out. Especially news like the BLS, it's one thing to talk about a company coming out with a new blockbuster drug, the BLS non-farm payroll, not even close to being the same thing.

Bullish news events are sometimes met with selling and bearish news with gains, good luck trying to "know" ahead of time how the market reacts to a good or bad NFP.; March 2, 2010 at 4:32 PM
DL said...: McFearless,

No such thing as 100% in this game.

But inside info provides a huge advantage, and would be worth paying big money for.; March 2, 2010 at 4:34 PM
Mack said...: @ McFear

He has def lagged as of late and his charts are not nearly as crisp as this blog.

It seems like stocktiming.com has also gotten bullish recently. Funny how their timing has changed recently as they were pretty bearish all of 2009. They keep bringing up net buyers vs sellers and not total volume.

I'm listening to a BlackRock call and they are pitching emerging markets like it is sliced bread; March 2, 2010 at 4:35 PM
McFearless said...: DL,

Sorry, I misunderstood reading this:

"No doubt there are a few people at BLS in a position to sell that information for big money."

First, that statement is hilarious because the BLS can't even get their methodolgy correct, so I'd love to hear how these "few people" get anyone smart to buy information from them. This statement at minimum implies a very high rate of success, if not 100%. If that weren't the case, where does the demand come from that would cause the price of this information to be sold for "big money"? Or a better question, if it's not a promise of higher success, what social mood causes it to be sold for big money? Perhaps if it was working for years social mood would bid that inside information up to the sky, but one wrong call would do tremendous damange to the pricing power that information holds.; March 2, 2010 at 4:42 PM
DL said...: McFearless,

Yes, maybe they can't get their methodology correct. But the market reacts immediately to the number, whether the number is correct or not. Buy buying or shorting futures contracts a few minutes before release of the info, a person could make a lot of money.; March 2, 2010 at 4:45 PM
McFearless said...: Anyway, you hardly need to do anything illegal like using inside information to "cheat".

Just do it right out in the open, the banks do it all the time. Become activist and plant your own people on the board and in mgmt, etc. etc.; March 2, 2010 at 4:45 PM
McFearless said...: DL,

Yes, exactly, but only if they knew how the market would react, which says nothing of the data they are buying does it?

I doubt after being burned one time on a big futures bet anyone would be hungry to buy it again and try over.

Maybe in a video game, not in real life.; March 2, 2010 at 4:47 PM
McFearless said...: Anyway, blah blah blah,

Gold is def. interesting here for so many reasons, the metals remain the most interesting market imo.; March 2, 2010 at 4:52 PM
I-Man said...: As I overstand it...

There is no inside information, only information.

Some have it, some dont. Some dont even know where to look. Some look for it, in all the wrong places.

(Like Rajaratnam, for example.)

Some overstand that the best place to find information is on a price chart, and its those folks that seem to be most successful.

They may not know a day in advance what QCOM will report in earnings- or when GS is going to add XYZ to conviction buy, or when GILD will have their next drug approved, but they know where the price looks to be headed.

Thats good enough info, for I-Man.; March 2, 2010 at 5:03 PM
AmenRa said...: Don't worry. GS will trot out Hatzius with the early info on NFP (+/- 3%). Cracks me up every time. Considering that Initial claims have been weaker during Feb should indicate a weaker NFP. Say what you will but ADP is decent for small business.; March 2, 2010 at 5:04 PM
AmenRa said...: This is good: Is Wells Operating Below FDIC Minimum; March 2, 2010 at 5:23 PM
Mannwich said...: And now from the "Understatement of the Millenium" dept. Although the effects of bailing out/propping up NYC may still be temporary.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/03/nyregion/03recession.html?hp; March 2, 2010 at 5:50 PM

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Morning Audibles 3.2.10 - Tractor Beam vs. "The Horse You Rode In On"

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