AmenRa's Corner 10.10.12




Creditcane™: REPETERE AD INFINITUM: CAVEAT EMPTOR.


SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing SMA(21). Still failing the 0.0% retrace (1463.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1432.12). QE2infinity. Still below the trend line and now testing the other trend line.



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held the 38.2% retrace (79.97). Holding above SMA(21). New high on dally 3LB (reversal is 79.27).



VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(55). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (14.27). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 13.88).



GOLD
Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (1730.90). Tested and failed SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1796.50). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing SMA(21). Still failing its 38.2% retrace (1.3127). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3128).



JNK
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above SMA(55). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (40.10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.73).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still failing its 38.2% minor retrace (17.47). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 18.70).



WTI
Bearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (90.85). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 92.48).



SILVER
Bullish short day. Still failing SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (32.24). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 33.69).



BKX
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (50.92). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 51.64).



HYG/LQD
Bearish long day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (0.7536). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.7847).



COPPER
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing SMA(21). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (3.673). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.688).



AAPL
Spinning top day. Still failing SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 50.0% minor retrace (629.73). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 659.39).



EEM
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing SMA(21). Still failing its 50.0% retrace (41.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.64).







IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

4 comments:

AmenRa said...

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/cris-sheridan/feedback-loops-black-scholes-hft-cicadas

quote:
CONCLUSION and other thoughts

Investors warning: "forewarned is forearmed". The financial system is potentially far more unstable than I originally thought!

The Black-Sholes equation does not fit the form of the typical industrial feedback control loop. There is no reconciling control algorithm to adjust B-S calculated price for the derivative V vs. its real-time value as traded. As a result it is not truly adaptive to step changes and disturbances in the market. It is limited to setting the "Greek" tuning parameters correctly. Stock Price, Time, and Interest Rate are the only directly measured variables.

B-S appears more like a complex price tracking/following/look-up table algorithm to derive a likely price of a derivative.

By analogy and experience in the real world of feedback loops, computer driven HFT and executing B-S type time based differential equations could have similar inherent modes of instabilities. And by extension one could reasonably see where the financial world with all its complexity is exposed to many of the same shortcomings that have taken generations in the industrial world to correct. Add to this the potential of a security threat of a destabilizing attack over and above the usual fraud and criminal activity.

b22 said...

Hoffer

how about Sprint!

AmenRa said...

Market couldn't hold on to this mornings exuberance. Left my hotspot at home. Corner up in a few.

AmenRa said...

New.

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