Market Commentary 17JUN12
SPXSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(144). Tested and held the 61.8% minor retrace (1343.55). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1278.04). QE2infinity.
VIXBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55,89,144). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 26.66). GTFOOH.
EURUSDBearish engulfing day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(21). Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (1.2708). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2391).
HYG/LQDSpinning top day. Holding above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (0.7643). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7542).
19 comments:
Thanks once again, AndyT.
Perhaps Nomura's Bob Janjuah's S&P forecast for the rest of the year might be of interest (rally for the next 4-8 weeks, decline to 1000 by December):
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/video/video-markets-a-rally-but-then-a-drop/article4259335/
Every MSM headline is proclaiming the pro bailout party ND is winning and will have a majority. Not true. They have only a 2% lead and PASOK has said that they will only join a coalition if SYRIZA joins. Prepare for another election.
Greece election results: http://www.athensnews.gr/content/55344
Futures getting weaker. The realization that there will be no "liquidity" injections are starting to take effect.
Spain 10yr now up to 7.15%
And yet equities are trying to ignore the bond market...again. This will not end well.
Why is Vix getting pummeled? EURCHF can't get back to 1.20. 10yr yields still lower even though there's someone selling who is trying to get them higher. There will be no coalition in Greece. Spain is done and Italy is racing towards the cliff.
U.S. Stocks Decline as Merkel Says No Leeway for Greece
U.S. stocks declined after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the new Greek government should not be granted additional leeway on the terms of its bailout and Spanish bond yields advanced to a euro-era record.
“The important thing is that the new government sticks with the commitments that have been made,” Merkel told reporters today in the Mexican resort of Los Cabos before a Group of 20 summit. “There can be no loosening on the reform steps.”
Holy s*$t! Spain 10yr had a high of 7.285% (it's back down to 7.158% now). This cannot be sustained. There's no way Spain can afford it's debt with yields this high.
EURCHF still below 1.2000. SNB must be sweating bullets.
TPTB must be determined to prove that the Greece elections were a good thing by using the market as confirmation. 10yr yield, DXY and EURUSD don't agree.
Remember to ignore the G20, Troika, FinMins, etc. The only one that matters is Germany. As long as the Bundesbank says "Nein" there's no additional help for Greece, Spain or Italy.
Last Monday was just too embarrassing for the world political players. To put a solution out and get it rejected. Today their hand was seen keeping markets afloat (except for the DOW go figure).
And to think EURCHF never got above 1.2000. Ammunition running dry at the SNB?
Gus
I think events will be unfolding on a faster timeline this time. No QE from Fed, no coalition in Greece, Spain 10yr to hit 8.00%, Germany continuing to deny any kind of assistance. This is what's coming down the pike.
Old rule of thumb is that the market should retrace 50% of its move. So 1341.03 (or 1340-1345 using the nearest round numbers) is the midpoint of the last move. A break of 1303.89 (or 1300-1305) would bring in a test of the recent low of 1266.74.
Anyone? Bueller? Anyone?
DXY...MUST...NOT...CONFIRM...BULLISH ENGULFING...
EURUSD...MUST...NOT...CONFIRM...BEARISH ENGULFING
Nuevo I guess.
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