AmenRa's Corner 6.20.12

"It's too late. There is no escape."

Creditcane™: The FOMC realized that more QE would bring my wrath.

Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(55). Tested and failed the 50.0% minor retrace (1357.98). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1304.86). QE2infinity.

Inverted hammer day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 26.66).

Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(21). Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (1.2710). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2556).

Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and afield SMA(55). Holding above its 50.0% retrace (43.76). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 44.05).

Bearish short day. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 61.8% minor retrace (0.7643). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.7646).

Athens (weekly)
-no change (below mid)
low= 485.18
rev= 689.86; mid= 587.52

IBEX (weekly)
-no change (above mid)
low= 6065.00
rev= 6876.00; mid= 6470.50

FT MIB (weekly)
-no change (below mid)
low= 12739.98
rev= 14339.50; mid=13549.74

DAX (weekly)
-no change (below mid)
low= 6050.29
rev= 6583.90; mid= 6317.10



Jennifer said...

AR -- love the pics.

AT -- thanks for the weekend commentary, hope you had a happy Father's day.

Things may be quiet around here during the day, but I'm sure I'm not the only one checking in when I can :-)

AmenRa said...

Thanks Jennifer. I do the best I can to try and keep things flowing.

AmenRa said...

Love how Bloomberg does the hokey pokey:

Bloomberg 8:58PM Asian Stocks Advance as Fed Extends Economic Stimulus

Bloomberg 10:40PM Asian Stocks Decline After Fed Cuts U.S. Growth Forecasts

It's the same damn story.

AmenRa said...

China : PMI Flash Mfg Index
Actual 48.1 Prior 48.7

China has it's own problems and the EU expects them to pony up more money for the IMF. BWAHAHAHAHA.

AmenRa said...

Almost forgot. This is the HSBC PMI. Not the "official" release from the Chinese government (which will probably show expansion).

AmenRa said...

It's funny that all of the analysts who appeared in the MSM stating that QE3 was a sure thing are not back on apologizing for their error.

AmenRa said...

Spain 10yr 6.744% (-.298). Still above the Nov 2011 high of 6.700%.

Matthew said...

I'm surprised that there wasn't a bazooka drawn by the Fed. The Street told everyone to expect QE. Bernanke isn't the kind of guy to hold back the punch bowl.

The tone of the fixed income space is sort of eerie. I'm picking up a lot of mixed signals.

I'm having a hard time figuring out what is next. I am strongly positioned in cash and defensive risk assets. I just don't have enough conviction to put on large bets in either direction.

AmenRa said...

My guess on weekly claims 390k. Last week revised to 393k. EUC & extended -150k. Drumroll please...

AmenRa said...

Weekly claims 387k, prior 389k (revised from 386k). EU & Extended -41k. Guess they kept the numbers down because of fear of no QE.

AmenRa said...

Philly Fed gets decimated. Actual -16.6, prior -5.8, consensus 0.5.

Greece thinks it can change the terms on its austerity measures. Germany says "Nein! Nein! Nein!"

Existing Home Sales 4.55M, prior 4.62M, consensus 4.57M.

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -37.9 prior -36.4

Spain sells debt at much higher rates. Successful in that the debt was able to get sold BUT the rates were damn near double the previous auction. So not as successful as it appears.

AmenRa said...

EURUSD down on the week. I guess hopes of an EU salvation follows.

Andy T said...


S&P 500 reversed at the exact 61.8% retracment....

AmenRa said...

All the gains from the rumor "Central banks to provide liquidity" about to be wiped out in one day.

AmenRa said...

Andy T

1358? I did add smaller retrace range on the daily SPX which shows 1358.56 as the 61.8% retrace. It was tested the last two days. The test failed.

BinT said...

The alarm you hear is the Philly Fed's monthly report where contraction is gripping the Mid-Atlantic manufacturing sector this month. The general business conditions index shows contraction for a second month and, at a minus 16.6 level, much more severe contraction than May's minus 5.8, a reading that in itself was a shock.

AmenRa said...

Now if we get below 1323.59 (low from the final 30 min on 6/14/12) then the Central Bank rumor will have been declared DOA.

AmenRa said...


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