"Damn you PPT! Each time I have a chance to push the market lower you appear."
Creditcane™: Yes it's me that you see in the rear view mirror.
SPXBullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(144). Still failing the 61.8% minor retrace (1343.55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1304.86). QE2infinity.
DXYDoji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above the 38.2% minor retrace (81.70). Tested and failed SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 81.38).
VIXBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(89). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 26.66).
GOLDBullish harami day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing its 61.8% retrace (1600.40). Now failing all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1559.40). Must have the precious.
EURUSDSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Still failing its 38.2% minor retrace (1.2710). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2556).
JNKBullish short day (didn't confirm bearish engulfing). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(144). Holding above its 61.8% retrace (38.86). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.59).
10YR YIELDBullish short day. Holding above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (14.71). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.65).
WTIBullish piercing day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing its 0.0% retrace (81.14). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 83.00).
SILVERBearish short day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 100.0% retrace (26.60). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 29.49).
BKXBullish short day (didn't confirm bearish engulfing). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(144). Holding above its 50.0% retrace (43.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 44.05).
HYG/LQDBullish short day. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 61.8% minor retrace (0.7643). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7646).
COPPERBullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (3.280). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.434).
AAPLSpinning top day. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (577.84). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 572.27).
CRBBullish harami day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Still failing its 38.2% minor retrace (277.27). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 275.05).
XLEDoji day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (63.73). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 65.97).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
9 comments:
Weekly 3LB Update 6/22/12
Greece gets worked over on the football field by Germany...
think they'll "get them back" in an area that really counts.
"What debt?"
Euro in good shape despite Spain's woes: Nowotny
VIENNA (Reuters) - The euro will survive even if Spain were cut off from capital markets, European Central Bank policymaker Ewald Nowotny said, adding the currency was in solid shape despite financial problems in some member countries.
Asked if the euro would survive if Spain itself were frozen out of markets, Nowotny said: "We have to prevent this situation. But even if Spain could not finance itself it would not automatically mean that it would exit the euro. There is no nervousness about the euro itself, just about individual countries".
He took a dig at International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde for suggesting on Thursday the euro's viability was at stake.
"This is exactly an example of what I see as an inadmissible simplification," he said.
Nowotny said there was no getting around greater EU economic integration if the bloc wanted to avoid splintering and a loss of power that would eventually degrade people's quality of life and freedoms.
He played down the prospects of next week's EU summit coming up with a detailed way forward, and said that in the longer term it made sense to have a more centralized fiscal policy and a sort of EU finance minister.
Greece at it again:
Greece outlines plan to ease bailout burden
ATHENS (Reuters) - Greece wants tax cuts, extra help for the poor and unemployed, a freeze on public sector lay-offs and more time to cut its deficit under a plan likely to run into strong opposition at a European Union summit next week.
The new coalition government's program, seen by Reuters on Saturday, reflected public pressure to ease the terms of a 130 billion euro ($163 billion) bailout saving Greece from bankruptcy but only at the cost of harsh economic suffering.
If implemented in full, the new program would undo many austerity measures the country agreed in February to clinch the bailout package, its second since 2010.
Euro zone partners have offered adjustments but no radical rewrite of the bailout conditions, with paymaster Germany particularly resistant to Greek calls for leniency.
"A. Friend" sent this over..
"...I have spent a decent amount of time thinking about VIXY and VIX relative to the s and p. My take is that there is a natural floor to volatility in the low teens on the VIX such that it could be bought with limited if any downside risk and strong upside potential. Unlike an equity which theoretically can go to zero (bankrupt etc) the VIX seems to have a mathematical relationship that it would never be zero. It is simple yet complex.
Thoughts?..."
anybody see any 'holes' in that?
AAIP
Thx RA, AT
AAIP, sounds reasonable to me. Trade it using some type of mean reversion strategy?
here's something to ponder...
There has only been "5" previous occurrences when the following conditions have been met.
1. The S&P 500 has closed "5" consecutive days in a row above its +2.0 Bollinger Band.
2. The Yield on the 10 Year Bond was higher than it was 6 months ago.
3. The Rate on the 90 Day TBILL was higher than it was 6 months ago.
11/09/61, spooz peaked one month later then down 28%
05/05/69, spooz peaked same month then down 35%
09/26/73, spooz peaked one month later then down 44%
11/18/80, spooz peaked same month, trended sideways until it went down 28%
08/12/87, spooz peaked same month then down 36%
03/19/2012, it happened again... now what?
The S&P 500 peaked in early April at 1422 which was followed by an 11% correction. Previous events have seen larger corrections ranging from 28% to 44%. Applying standard retracement levels ranging from 38.2% to 78.6% from the March 2009 low of 667 to the April high of 1422 this leads to a potential range of values from 1133 to 828 if the current occurrence acts like prior events.
Stop asking for more help, Germany tells Greece
By Erik Kirschbaum
BERLIN (Reuters) - Greece's new government should stop asking for more help and instead move quickly to enact reform measures agreed to in return for previous bailouts from its European partners, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Sunday.
Schaeuble told Bild am Sonntag in unusually blunt language that Greece has forfeited much of Europe's trust during the sovereign debt crisis, as reflected in an opinion poll covering the euro zone's four biggest nations and published in the paper.
"The most important task facing new prime minister (Antonis) Samaras is to enact the program agreed upon quickly and without further delay instead of asking how much more others can do for Greece," said Schaeuble, a close ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel and Europe's most powerful finance minister.
Greece's new three-party coalition government said on Thursday it would renegotiate the terms of the 130-billion-euro bailout deal that is helping the country avoid bankruptcy.
The coalition's platform particularly challenges euro zone paymaster Germany, which has offered to adjust the lifeline's terms to make up for time lost as a result of two Greek elections since May, but refuses to revise it radically.
Central Banks Face Power Limit as Debt Persists, BIS Says
Central banks in developed nations are confronting the limits of their ability to aid economic recovery as government efforts to strengthen their finances fall short, the Bank for International Settlements said.
“Central banks are being cornered into prolonging monetary stimulus as governments drag their feet and adjustment is delayed,” the Basel, Switzerland-based BIS said in its annual report, published today. “Both conventionally and unconventionally accommodative monetary policies are palliatives and have their limits.”
While central banks’ actions were key to limiting damage from the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., interest rates are now “as low as they can go” and debt purchases have swollen central bank balance sheets, the BIS said. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has indicated that the ECB is close to exhausting its tools after cutting its benchmark rate to a record low and flooding the banking system with cash.
“In the middle of all this we find the overburdened central banks, pushed to use what power they have to contain the damage,” Stephen Cecchetti, BIS economic adviser, said on a conference call. “There are very clear limits to what central banks can do. It’s critical for the health of the global economy to break the vicious cycles and reduce the pressure on central banks.”
Looks like Germany is having their own problems:
Germany Plans Joint Federal-State Debt in Merkel Fiscal Deal
Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed to share borrowing costs with Germany’s states to help ease their budget squeeze, completing a deal the opposition said will help secure German ratification of the European Union’s fiscal pact.
Germany’s federal and state governments plan their first joint debt sale in 2013 to help the states meet the pact’s deficit limits, the German government’s press office said in an e-mailed statement in Berlin today.
Pressed by the Social Democrat-led opposition that could block the stricter European fiscal rules in parliament, Merkel agreed to a policy she opposes in confronting the debt crisis in the rest of the 17-nation euro area. She signaled her rejection of joint euro-area debt as recently as June 23, saying “liabilities and controls” must “go together.”
“We reached a solution that makes it clear there will be approval” of the fiscal pact in the upper house of parliament, Kurt Beck, the premier of Rhineland-Palatinate state and member of the opposition SPD, said in an ARD television interview.
Besides the so-called Deutschland bonds, concessions by Merkel’s coalition include 580 million euros ($729 million) in one-time federal aid to local governments and a commitment of 75 million euros annually for day care, and an unspecificed amount of federal help to states to care for the elderly, Beck said.
Post a Comment