Creditcane™: Damn. Apple might just mess up my mojo tomorrow.
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). Tested and failed the 38.2% minor retrace (1372.42). Failing the lower trend line (10/4-11/28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1419.04). QE2infinity.
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing the 61.8% minor retrace (79.60). Tested and failed SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 78.98). Still below weekly 3LB mid.
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(89). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.44).
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing its 50.0% retrace (1661.00). Still failing all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1706.50). Still below monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (1.3142). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3465).
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(21). Holding above its 61.8% retrace (38.86). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 38.83).
Bullish short day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (21.37). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 19.88).
Spinning top day. Tested and held SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (103.42). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 105.68). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.
Spinning top day (possible bullish harami). Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (30.97). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 33.26).
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above SMA(55). Still failing its 38.2% minor retrace (49.10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 49.00).
Bullish short day. Tested and held SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7825).
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(144). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (3.653). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 3.626).
Spinning top day (does not include afterhours). Tested and failed SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (563.20). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 580.13).
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above SMA(89). Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (3.41). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.23).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
19 comments:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=CBOT_S.N12&t=&a=&w=&v=d6
were fixin' on U$D ~15 'Beans, and, still, haven't heard much about it..
~~
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=CME_LC.M12&t=&a=&w=&v=d6
'Beef' starting to come down..just in time for 'Grillin' Season'--that's 're-election +', no?
ibid.
"...Cattle futures rebounded after tumbling by the exchange limit yesterday after a case of mad-cow disease was reported in the U.S. The South Korean government will halt any new U.S. imports.
The disease has been found in a dairy cow in central California, John Clifford, the USDA’s chief veterinarian, told reporters yesterday in Washington. Its meat did not enter the food chain and the carcass will be destroyed, Clifford said. This is the fourth confirmed case of the brain-wasting disease in the U.S. cattle herd since the first was discovered in December 2003 in an animal that came from Canada. ..."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-25/cattle-rebound-from-biggest-drop-in-11-months-on-mad-cow.html
or, is it 'Mad Cow'? ??
ibid.
http://www.globaltvedmonton.com/money/ag+dept+new+case+of+mad+cow+disease+found+in+dairy+cow+in+calif+food+dairy+supplies+safe/6442627680/story.html
In the wake of a massive outbreak in Britain that peaked in 1993, the U.S. intensified precautions to keep BSE out of U.S. cattle and the food supply. In other countries, the infection's spread was blamed on farmers adding recycled meat and bone meal from infected cows into cattle feed, so a key U.S. step has been to ban feed containing such material.
Tuesday, Clifford said the California cow is what scientists call an atypical case of BSE, meaning that it didn't get the disease from eating infected cattle feed.
That means it's "just a random mutation that can happen every once in a great while in an animal," said Bruce Akey, director of the New York State Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory at Cornell University. "Random mutations go on in nature all the time."
Isn't it true that whatever the "headline" knee jerk is...that you need to 'fade it' when it comes to commodities?
Or anything for that matter.
These markets are so much bigger than any 'headline."
Seems like that's true at least 78.6% of the time.
BinT
Maybe the "random mutations go on in nature all the time" is a defense mechanism in the cow genes? Natures way of saying "eat more chicken".
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/22/us-economy-global-idUSBRE83L0AA20120422
"(Reuters) - The amount of money thrown at rescuing the world economy since the Great Recession began is truly staggering, probably more than $14 trillion, and the financial spigots are still open.
e has studied U.S. consumer debt piles and concluded a long and arduous climb still lies ahead. "The lessons of history suggest that the remaining process of healing will likely be measured in years rather than quarters or months."
As for governments, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said since 2008 their debt loads have swollen to 100 percent of GDP on average in advanced economies.
Reducing public debt to 50 percent of GDP in 2050, considered a manageable level, would require immediate fiscal tightening equivalent to 12 percent of GDP in Japan, and 8 percent in the United States and the UK, it said.
"In many countries, just stabilizing debt, let alone bringing it down to a sustainable level, will be a major challenge," the OECD said.
They studied public debt loads since 1875 for 20 countries through war and peace. They found it takes longer to cut debt accumulated in peacetime, and that in 40 percent to 55 percent of cases, it took a mixture of inflation above 5 percent, very low returns on government debt, or default to erase the problem."
nice little butt raping for apple shorts
Andy T
Why would anyone short AAPL? I know it's still near all time highs but that doesn't mean it's ready to plummet. Since AAPL always guides lower then beats expectations why take that chance?
Ra,
I agree, shorting appl is pretty moronic at the moment
however, they did in fact miss earnings last quarter, remember?
Andy T
Just looking at AAPL May 600 puts. DOA @ open. Yesterday close 49.70. Todays open 12.75. Not even a trailing stop would've been able to stop that bloodbath.
ibid - Cows don't like to get tipped over, it really makes them mad.
Mutt
b22
I rather look at y/y results than analysts estimates. So if AAPL beat by 10% or more y/y then I'd view it as a decent report.
Rev y/y 39.19B +58.9%
EPS(diluted) y/y 12.30 +92.2%%
Cash y/y 10.121B +93%
Assets 150.934B +59.03%
Liabilities 32.036B -4.16%
...from a quick look over the numbers
Ra,
Fair enough, just that I'd think most people consider a miss/beat based on whatever the consensus estimates are rather than the absolute numbers
in which case, they missed last quarter:
Revenue: $28.3 billion vs. $29.41 billion expected
EPS: $7.05 vs. $7.26 expected
iPhone units: 17.1 million vs. 22 million expected
iPad units: 11.1 million vs. 10 million expected
Mac units: 4.89 vs. 4.5 million expected
iPod: 6.62 million vs. 6.9 million
Gross Margin: 40.3% vs. 39.6% expected
December quarter revenue: $37 billion vs. $36.63 billion expected
December quarter EPS: $9.30 vs. $8.96 expected
personally, I find "earnings" mostly worthless anyway
a minority view to be sure ....
b22
I've spent a lot of time trying to come up with the actual "free cash flow". The numbers in the reports get so massaged that you have to find out what to add and subtract from the actual number to get the correct number.
Ra -- I don't make earnings plays in options. Doesn't the volitility crush suck too much premium out no matter what the price direction? Better for selling than buying.
Ra,
really? that must be a big effort, AAPL is massive
who the hell knows....I'll stick to the charts, which even if they (charts) are massaged as well, I dont' need to do two months of digging to "see it"
by which time the stock is already doing X
Jennifer
Option plays during earnings is similar to a roulette wheel. Then again it may be closer to Russian roulette. I forgot if a straddle or strangle play is used to cover both directions.
My boss likes to short Apple...via selling call options.
He sort of masochist...I actually think he's avoided getting really creamed....by selling in the money or at the money options a few weeks before expiry.
There's so much volatility built into apple options...you couple that with that time decay that hits...
It just seems better to be sellling those things than owning them.
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