The first trading day of the month ritual continues in April.
Creditcane™: I took two days off. It's f'in first of the month.
SPXBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above all SMA's. Tested and failed the 0.0% retrace (1419.15). Tested and held the lower trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1392.78). QE2infinity.
DXYBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing the 61.8% minor retrace (79.60). Tested and held SMA(144). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 79.46).
VIXBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Holding above its 100.0% retrace (14.27). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.64).
GOLDSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 50.0% retrace (1661.00). Tested and held SMA(21,233). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1714.10). Still above monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.
EURUSDBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144). Holding above its 61.8% minor retrace (1.3227). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3465).
JNKInverted hammer day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(55). Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (39.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.88).
10YR YIELDSpinning top day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (22.11). No daily 3LB (reversal is 22.98).
WTIBullish long day. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (102.98). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 110.31). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.
SILVERBullish short day. Tested and held SMA(21,144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (32.01). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 31.35).
BKXSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (50.01). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 49.09).
HYG/LQDBearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(21,89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 0.7953).
COPPERBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21,55). Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (3.839). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.987).
AAPLBullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (616.28). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 599.55).
EUFNBullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(55). Failing its 38.2% retrace (18.04). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 18.96).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
84 comments:
@b22 (other thread)...
U have to read my comments WFIW...
I'm not trying to compete with 'Neely' or 'Prechter'... Frankly, I wouldn't even know where to start...
But consider this...
(I'm going to group BOTH together... 'mistakenly' or 'unmistakenly' so)...
- First of all... Based on my historical aptitude of both, I'd rank 'NEELY' b4 'Prechter'... & IN FACT... I'd rate ANDY T' ahead of BOTH...
Why?... 'Fleibility'...
So now let's move on... ANDY T (in the last thread), basically bragged that 'NEELY' was finally coming around to his own macro counts...
I... "CV"... Just have to ask myself... "WHY"...
'Waves' are fungible... They have to account for shifting dynamics... At this point, (& actually for a pair of years now), I'm wondering if those 'shifting dynamics' ARE (or ARE NOT) tantamount to market manipulation...
That is a notion that, based on my limited knowledge, would be UTTERLY DISCREDITED by either Neely or Prechter (correct me if I'm wrong ~ Actually, I think I DO know the answer ~ In 'socioeconomics' ~ there is no such thing as MARKET MANIPULATION ~ which I AGREE with)...
But as a film student (back in the day at USC), what are we really talking about here?...
1. Market Manipulation?
2. Suspension of 'DISBELIEF' (the 'Rosetta Stone' of film studies)?...
~~~
Until 'Jackson Hole 2010', I was willing to go along with the 'SOD' theory... Since then, I'm fully on board with the 'MM'theory...
The BEAUTY of whatr Prechter & Neely advocate is that the theory is entirely fungible...
Circumstances change? NO PROBLEM... Wave counts get altered on the fly & they're all vindicated in the end...
~~~
- The S&P '500' has a life (since 1957)... Before that... 1923 ((10 years AFTER the establishment of the Federal Reserve)...
- The DOW has a previous life... (but not by much, & not WITHOUT numerous "in tossings & out tossings" (all, I suppose, NOT RANDOM)...
- Prechter & Neely base most of their MOST VALID assumptions on the wave counts of BOTH...
- The US Dollar 'was' pegged to a gold standard' (until 1971)...
- The US enjoyed a 'dollar hedgemony' (based on a post 'Bretton Woods' gold standard [won largely based on WW2 success'])... Until 1971...
- So the DOW & S&P (which are 'Prechter' & 'Neely''s main indices to understand WAVE dynamics), are still largely dependent on '1971' value of the DOLLAR (&/or 'ad hoc' variations to wave counts based on unpublished doubts as to whether DOLLAR hedgemony was sustainable [& if so ~ how many generatioins would be involved])...
~~~
It's an incredible mix of stuff (certainly beyond my own comprehension)... But I do know this...
I just made dinner ('ravioli' ~ as the case may be)... It was as they say 'in Italiano'... BOSCOIALO [which means 'woodsman'])...
So...
- This morning I had to mix 3 1/2 cups of flour with 10 egg yolks, some salt, & a dash of milk...
- I had to set 10 tomatoes in an iron skillet 6 hours on slow 250 bake in the oven...
- I had to roll ther pasta (5x) thru my pasta roller)...
- Then, mix nutmeg, ricotta. chopped parsley, grated parmesean, a coupla red pepper flakes, & some salt together & put it in a glad bag (which later I cut a corner into to act as a pastry filler)...
- Glue & cut the ravioli & flash freeze
- 6 hours later, saute butter, olive oil, shallots, mushrooms, & ham for a topping (covered by fresh parsley)...
- boil the flash frozen fresh pasta and 'salta in piadella'...
~~~
IOW
IT'S COMPLICATED... (but it tastes AWESOME)...
CV,
holy crap, I'm not reading all that, sorry.
In any event, you are often on here with this "see, its simple" attitude about markets when you make your "forecasts"
its especially amusing when people that dedicate their entire lives to studying markets get tossed around in your comments as "whipping boys" to your theories
thats basically nonsense and everyone knows it, thats what I meant to tell you the first time
but hey, why should I say anything to you, I mean, you wouldn't get pissed off if say,....Thor, came into your aerobics class to show your students how "easy" P90x is, would you now? You say it all boils down to FIAT, Thor, he tells your students that it all boils down to Tony Fucking Horton teaching you how to Bring It! I mean, if he sat back and said, hey!......., MORONS.....get ripped in 90 days or spend the next 6 months staying pear shaped with CV....and then added at the end
but what do I know? while taking one of those flex pictures.....
.....surely that'd be just fine, just like you want it to be, right?
"So WTF?.. I'm making this one now... Y'all can come at me with all your 'Neely" & 'Prechter' based waves all you want... "
ah, crap, I screwed it up
Thor says:
but what do I know,.... I just work on computers
a far better imitation of CV that way, if I hadn't missed that it would have been my finest TA post ever
imnsho
Glue & cut the ravioli & flash freeze
cv--
at what Teperature are you 'flash freezing' (for 6 Hours?)?
ibid.
Not looking good for Kansas.
DXY testing its 38.2% retrace on the weekly chart. Needs to close the week below 78.35 to start trending down on the weekly 3LB.
Manipulated the markets today on some of my SSO $60 Apr calls bot last thursday... not greedy
@AAIP
"Flash Freeze" is kind of a synthetic term...
I'm not talking about the professional method using a $20,000 machine...
But you can take many foods an put them in a freezer, yes, for roughly 6 hours with air passing over them and get pretty close to the same effect... Then you pull them out and vacuum seal them to mitigate eventual frost damage...
Smaller things don't require 6 hours... When my pea plants produce harvest in June, it hardly takes any time at all to freeze the peas...
Different foods vary in times (mostly based on size...
@ben
Oh I'll be sure to buy one of those books and dedicate a life of study to it...
I'll get to it as soon as I complete Chapter 21 of the book I'm reading now that teaches me how to toss grass up in the air to see which way the wind is blowing (& all the various nuances thereof)...
~~~
Since I'm going to need your help to understand wave theory, and unmanipulated markets, can you please direct my attention to the Chapters that deal with the "behavior" of free market participants when 5.9 TRILLION dollars of roll over debt comes to market?
Since there are only 7 billion people on the planet, does everyone just 'pony up' $843 so the US Government can go on funding it's dalliances?
Or does the FREE MARKET only exist "after" the Fed comes in & monetizes all that debt?
~~~
In his comment yesterday, Andy expressed something (I'm paraphrasing here), about Neely basically 'struggling' with doing wave counts on commodities (& why)...
I think I remember you telling me once that the truest wave counts can only be applied to the DOW & S&P (mostly the DOW)...
Well if that's the case, then it brings up several questions:
- The DOW & S&P toss companies in & out on a frequent (or not so frequent)... I'll concede that that habit 'somewhat' aligns with free market theory (assuming it is done in a conscientious way), but even that is subjective... It's more likely that what get tossed are anything at risk of damaging the long term trajectory lines of the indices themselves...
- While the Dow predates the Fed, the S&P doesn't (&, as stated earlier in the comments you, the greatest reader of all time, didn't read, the S&P '500' has only been around since 1957... Both of these indices are predicated on companies, whose values are determined by market cap... The 'market cap' is priced in DOLLARS (which 'used' to be a currency that was backed by gold, but then not only was revalued (in 1933), but then thoroughly abandoned in 1971... Enforcement (yes ~ I say 'ENFORCEMENT') of the use of dollars as legal tender comes at gunpoint [either by 'law' in the United States, or by military force projection around the world]... If the US Government (mostly installed puppets acting in bankers interests), decides they don't like somebody (mostly because they either have gold or oil), they send soldiers & war toys to FORCE you to comply... That's your 'FREE MARKET'...
So Neely & Prechters models are based on:
- Indices which are totally based on dollar hedgemony
- The dollar itself has lost more than 90% of it's value (vs. the longstanding previous store of wealth [notice I didn't say "currency"]), gold...
- It's totally floating as we speak
- Debt in dollars (which are debt) is at levels that have, historically, caused governments to collapse.
- There are no new buyers of this debt (only the monopoly of the central bank).
- There is no savings or capital formation because of ZIRP (which is a 'policy' response to the above phenomenon).
- There is no organic growth due to the catabolic effects of misallocation of capital.
- The cheapest, most efficient, energy sources (which are the main backbone of any 'growth' paradigm, have all been used up)
~~~
In the end (whenever that is), it only leads to one conclusion... That it will all blow up...
But Prechter & Neely will always be RIGHT, because when that happens, they can conveniently re-label the wave counts... (& I guess that's where the "suspension of disbelief" due to manipulated markets chapter gets written)...
Meanwhile ~ everyone else is wondering what to do with these DOLLARS that they used to trade with in equity markets...
~~~
OK... I'm off to write a book now on how to do a jumping jack...
@ben
Here, I'll be nice... Since you like to read every single printed word on the planet EXCEPT my long posts, I'll give you the 'Cliff's Notes' version:
- Free (unmanipulated) Markets (by todays definition), ONLY exist AFTER central banks print money to roll over debt... If the money printing were to stop, the entire system would collapse (& eventually be resurrected by a new system)... It's rather 'specious' to deny markets are manipulated when the only reason they exist AT ALL is because of money printing...
- People (around the world), are forced (by law & at gunpoint) to use the dollar as a means of exchange & price discovery... Is that the definition of "hands free" free market capitalism?
CV,
Please don't misunderstand where I'm coming from. This started with the hilarious comment you made yesterday about markets being rigged, you still can't get the joke I guess.
I'm not trying to make/help you understand anything or saying that you should read anything so let me be just be very clear up front about that, as if I care about helping or talking to you in any critical way about the markets. I don't. At all. And you hardly need any help anyway, as you already know everything about everything, and not just in markets! It all "came together" for you in 2010, we've ALL heard the story now since you've told it once a month since 2010.
I simply pointed out that your arrogance regarding markets is on display 24/7 at that you look retarded (to me) as a result. The whole "its this simple" commentary is for clowns.
and par for the course for you, the very things that drive you absolutely insane that Thor might do with regards to your job, you bring that same shit to this blog with your commentary on the markets virtually any time you comment on them, a walking contradiction daily is what you are
markets are less than a hobby for you, so color me as laughing at your "forecasts" that also include comments that anyone can "bring all the wave theory they want, I already have this stuff figured out"....and as if you have any clue where the "best counts are able to be applied"...
you don't!
As for Andy's comment on Neely, nah, I don't fully agree. Clearly nobody could apply a wave count to a commod on its way to zero. any basic understanding of wave theory would indicate that such a market will not display waves properly. However, how many large global commods are about to go to zero? I don't think Andy's statement is true across the board, iow.
Now I don't know what Andy is referring to when he said "neely had it right" but he goes on to say that neely doesn't chart commods and simply put that isn't true.
"In the last few years I've come to realize that Neely had it 'right' when it comes to analyzing commodities.
He doesn't do it."
Of course, I like to bring some evidence to the table, at least an ounce of it, so here's the record on Neely as a top Gold Timer via Timers Digest several times over the last decade. Last time I checked, gold was a commodity and Neely charts it, he even charges people money to see his gold counts, and apparently he does so better than the majority of people, I'm pretty sure he's cleaned your clock CV when it comes to trading it.
http://www.neowave.com/company-news.asp
Fact is that you have not put in the lifetime effort required to be any good at wave theory, and have a blast wrapping your head around the fact that Neely CAN and DOES count gold, regardless of what Andy said. I hope this doesn't come as too big of a blow to your ego, you were probably really riding high after reading Andy's post yesterday.
I'm sure you'll come up with millions of rationalizations of how this can be before lunch rolls around, all of which revolve around the ideas of FIAT and gold is "really money" and so on and so forth.....
"- People (around the world), are forced (by law & at gunpoint) to use the dollar as a means of exchange & price discovery... Is that the definition of "hands free" free market capitalism?"
bwahahahahahaha
oh, you are so right, I mean, just as a recent example, when the riots in Egypt started millions of men women and children were held down at gunpoint and told
"you can riot, but you will riot using DOLLARS"
yesterday, when I went to the grocery store, I pulled out a bag of junk silver, next thing I know, there is a swat team around me, telling me:
dollars or a shock collar son, make your move
This summer in my tiny little hometown I'm certain if I visit a local farmer stand that I'll be told that Im being watched by a man with a gun, and if I intend to live I best pay with dollars.....
@ben
I'm not "TRYING" to be good at wave theory... I'm not saying that it is, or isn't, an interesting theory... I'm just pointing out what it is predicated on...
In the end... It's predicated on "prices" for things (settled largely in DOLLARS)...
Remove the dollar from the equation & I'm sure you could still come up with waves, but it's very likely that everything that people have come to know would be radically altered...
~~~
It kind of reminds me of the, I think it was 'Taleb', who was speaking of Black Swans...
A turkey spends the first 1,000 days of his life fed by the farmer, getting plump, & horsing around with the other turkeys... As far as the turkey knows, that's always the way it will be [except for the turkey jetpacks])... Then, Thanksgiving day arrives at some point & he finds his neck on a chopping block...
no, you are not listening
"I'm just pointing out what it is predicated on...
In the end... It's predicated on "prices" for things (settled largely in DOLLARS)..."
WRONG! just entirely incorrect
anyway, thats my morning fill, its about time to trade
oh how I love trading the papery paper markets
paper, paper, paper, paper
just love the sound of it
@ben
YES... "gunpoint"...
Transactions, in the United States, which do not occur using LEGAL TENDER, are considered "black market"... If they wanted to, they could arrest you for it...
Black markets exist (and always have)... They are really the most TRUE examples of free market... It is impossible to operationally enforce laws into every nook and cranny of existence, but I'm sure if they could, they would...
~~~
As for overseas (Egypt was your example)... I cannot go down the list of 20th century regimes & line item each one... Most few people would argue that the United States (since WWI), has been able to force project (militarily)... A large number of dictatorships come & go based on who is installed as their regime leader (who is, of course, friendly to US interests)...
~~~
Ironically... IMO... This little game (as it has been played out in my lifetime), is now nearing the "bridge too far" point...
It's one thing to force project against isolationist regimes (like Iraq), but I've said before that the US is 'too arrogant' with regards to Iran...
Iran means you end up facing the Russians & Chinese (which is the "bridge too far")...
It's like the bully on the playground who finally meets the kid who stands up to him...
Dollar hedgemony has been preserved:
- First through gold backing
- Next military force projection & petrodollar relation
When that crumbles, all "pricing" models (based on dollars) will radically reset...
"In the end... It's predicated on "prices" for things (settled largely in DOLLARS)..."
WRONG! just entirely incorrect"
~~~
So when Neely (or Andy), tosses out a wave target level (for the S&P, which is an aggregation of market caps, denominated in dollars)... Then that means 'THE DOLLAR' has nothing to do with it?
CV,
who cares? I mean really, here you are, going on about nothing all over again
Who fucking cares? Iran now? wow.....
here, try this, go try to trade someone locally for some of the wood you have, barter with them for some other good
see what happens
my guess:
1. Nobody will pull a gun on you and tell you that you must exchange with dollars, just like anyone using Euro's isn't having that happen to them, or Yen, or whatever, for that matter
2. Nobody is going to tell you that you need to pay tax on the transaction
3. You'll still be a moron when it comes to markets
"Then that means 'THE DOLLAR' has nothing to do with it?"
do you know that wave counts have been applied to the tulip mania?
riddle me this all knowing CV, where was the dollar then?
again, you have 0, let me scream it from the hills
ZERO!
understanding of the underlying thesis behind wave theory
if the S&P was priced in space rocks as the primary medium of exchange there would still be counts, does that clear it up for you? the dollar doesn't make waves exist, lol!
Anyone that loves to claim each day that the ONLY reason the market rises is a declining dollar
I'm curious
what do you make of the fact that the 10 year trend in the dollar is down, and the 10 year trend in stocks is......
ooh, did I just give you heartburn? or, let me guess, you then pull up a chart "since 1913" to "prove your point"
or, if I played the game a different way:
the dollar has everything to do with everything
By the way... I don't just pull numbers out of my a55... I like to use, (as you do), things like fibonacci extensions, & patterns to help provide framework...
But I do not delude myself into thinking that the market ISN'T rigged...
"Rigged" DOES NOT MEAN that some central banker sits in a tower and decides the price of everything...
"Rigged" means that the market itself is kept afloat by artificial means (TARPS, LTRO's, QE's, etc.)... Without those, the market (as you know it), would collapse... I'm guessing that the dollar itself would be part of that collapse...
Theoretically, I suppose, one could continue this artificial life support for all eternity... But you never can account for the 'Black Swan'...
So any 'predictions' I tend to make are wholly based on my 'guesses' are as to what the ones who possess most of the means to support the market have in mind...
For instance:
- I think that they already know the game is over but would prefer to engineer an orderly decline (which is laughable, but if I were 'they', I'd probably think that way too...
- Timelines play a vital role
- Election cycles play a huge role
Yesterday, I tossed out a notion that I believe that the S&P would basically stay afloat until Romney got his last delegate to secure the nomination... I tossed out "North Carolina" primary (because in 2008 ~ that's where Obama got his last delegate to put him over the top vs. Hilary)... It may not be North Carolina, it may have to wait until the larger states like New Jersey, Texas, & California are all in)...
Why all the 'voodoo'?... Simple ~ because when Wall St. basically got its "monkey boy" (Obama ~ 2008), it was free to wreak havoc... Markets went into straight decline until June 30th, got a little breather in July, then all hell broke loose after Lehman... I believe an 'echo' script will play out... Why? Because with Romney, Wall St. basically has two 'monkey boys'... They'll get what they want... Until then, they have to behave by supporting the market on low volume...
I don't necessarily see a crash to S&P 600 this time around... More like maybe a 'run of the mill' 20% drop (which is very short lived)... With the election cycle in full swing, there will be plenty of things to BLAME IT ON...
... & so it goes...
These are my 'theories'... But I'm not going to make any money writing books about bankers being in bed with politicians to artificially preserve the illusion of wealth to keep masses of population sedated in a bankrupt economy...
God knows I write a few words about the idea on a blog like this (which is, arguably, populated with intelligent folks), & I'm called a lunatic & in need of psychiatric help...
@ben
LOL ~ "wave counts on tulip bubble"
~~~
I've said this before... I find the notion of WAVES fascinating...
But face it... What you're plotting (to create waves), are points on an "x" & "y" axis...
- Time only moves in one direction
- as for 'levels', well, I suppose they could move straight sideways, but they really, mostly can only move up or down.
Naturally, in the end, you're going to end up with these 'zig-zaggy' looking things that someone may want to call a wave...
Since Prechter wasn't around during the great Tulip bubble (I don't suppose), all he has are these zig zaggy looking things that one may apply "counts" to... It might look impressive (as the 'ratios' may align themselves with some mathematical applications that may have been developed over time)...
For that matter ~ let's say the market dives 20% after Romney gets his last delegate... I could say "See? Look! my theory is correct"...
You'd criticize me for having no science behind my (il)logic...
ALL of EWI patterns are eventually correct (when the re-labeling gets applied) because of the dynamics of point plotting on an "x" & "y" axis)...
~~~
Lastly ~ That's not even my main argument (EW theory)... The main course of this meal is that WE ARE NOT DEALING WITH TULIPS (or moonrocks) now... We are dealing with 'dollars'...
I think what I'm trying to maybe say is that I'll be VERY INTERESTED in wave theory AFTER the dollar collapses (or gets reset)...
CV
quote:
"God knows I write a few words about the idea on a blog like this (which is, arguably, populated with intelligent folks), & I'm called a lunatic & in need of psychiatric help..."
You've taken the first step in recovery.
:-)
I was just sent an email by the CIA, as follows:
"you have said the word Bitcoin on a blog within the last 18 months. If you do it again, we will find you. Dollars only"
also, just came across my wires:
Starbucks mandated to change name, Federal Reserve ban and Treasury decide that "star"bucks are able to be confused with "THE buck"....and thats just a problem
the pittsburgh pirates, commonly referred to as "the bucs", are under review, same with Tampa Bay's football team. Joe Buck is also being asked to change his last name, among others.
the teams may be given a waiver due to the lack of the letter "k", Joe is probably screwed
did I mention there were guns involved?
CV, 9:59
again, more revealing that you do not understand wave theory at all
even your description of time is incorrect
but feel free to continue on, you just keep further proving my point, eventually I won't have to make it anymore
its sort of funny that somebody that thinks they are using fibonacci analysis can claim that on an X Y axis time only moves in one direction
this also reveals a lack of understanding about fibo, it's what connie calls the "fibonacci default club"
because just like in nature, fibonacci constantly gets rescaled in markets, one is theory, one is reality
Hypothetical "Q&A" session
Interviewer: "b22" ~ why do you trade markets?
Most likely answer: "To make profits"
Interviewer: "what are profits"?
MLA: "aggregate gains (over losses, fees, & taxes)"
I: How are they denominated & paid out?
MLA: Mostly in "dollars", but it could be in other ways
I: What do you do with those dollars?
MLA: Sometimes I buy things with them, but I also hold onto a lot of them as a store of wealth
I: What is wealth?
MLA: Purchasing power
I: What if your unit of measure of purchasing power (mostly in dollars, as you say), were to suddenly become reset, let's say, CUT IN HALF, as an example?
MLA: I'd be pissed
I: It might mean that all your careful work, dedicated towards making profits, were to yield little to nothing once the reset were to occur
MLA: Yeah ~ But there's no use worrying about those things because they'll never happen...
also...
please point out to me where I said this...
Anyone that loves to claim each day that the ONLY reason the market rises is a declining dollar
~~~
Anything I say, 'dollar & market' related makes no correlations with the direction of the dollar or the direction of equity markets (symbiotic or not)...
To be clear... I state only the following...
- Without the constant intervention of central banks (mostly, basically, printing money)... The market as you know it now, would be utterly reconfigured...
- The parabolic increases in debt rollover activities will eventually, in one way or another, lead to either the outright collapse of the dollar, or a major reset (which will suddenly vaporize a great deal of what was thought to be wealth & capital)...
CV,
have you ever heard of the concept of intermarket analysis?
I decent tech, by def. will never be blindsided by the dollar losing purchasing power if they are doing it, there will never be a day where a tech simply wakes up and the dollar has "lost half of its purchasing power" without any other indication that this was taking place
Also, it might be a good idea now for you to stop pretending that you know so much about me, you don't know jack shit about me.
You read a few of my comments from years ago about keeping dollars on hand, advice that has worked out remarkably well for anyone that followed it if you were paying attention, and you think you "put it all together"
you and your wet dream about the "great reset", as I've said for weeks now, it consumes your every waking hour
but you're still clueless
and you imply in every post that stocks are only up because the dollar is being weakened by various bodies (The Fed, etc) it doesn't matter than you don't directly come out and say it
stop trying to pretend you aren't making the claim about the correlation between the two, you do it every single day in every single post
you do it every time you claim that we are all trading "worthless paper based on dollars"
but sure, now you want to dance out of the corner you are in
anyway, you are now at the point in the conversation where you start branching out into all kinds of nonsense and other bullshit claims, so at this point I really do need to go
the fact that I've even entertained myself with you for this long today is a serious problem that I have.
...on the contrary (it's my "wet dream" ~ the reset)...
I've stated many times that I hope I'm not around to see it (& that all the stupid little pleasures that I have in life like playing fantasy football & the like ~ well, I'm wondering about how everything might play out)...
I talk to old people alot (who recount stories about 'rationing' & things during the World Wars)... I've said that I've seen first hand accounts, from personal friends, (Argentine), whose wealth disappeared from them during these exact same phenomenon)...
Trust me... It ain't no WET DREAM of mine to see it all occur...
As for it "consuming my every waking hour"...
I guess that means that even though I don't know jack shit about you, you presume to know jack shit about me...
Do you suppose that my EVERY WAKING HOUR is spent cowering in a corner watching DOOMSDAY PREPPERS (which I've told you, I haven't watched yet)?...
Earlier in this thread, I recounted the whole story about the ravioli I made from scratch yesterday & the various garden maneuvers I made...
& you point fingers at me for speaking in "absolutist" terms... Go figure!
how fitting, now listening to...
they came with scary monsters made of steel
To backtrack (and summarize a bit)...
This whole line of conversation basically started with my comment (to Andy) about my abstract feeling that the dollar itself (since it has no tether), is a commodity...
The rest followed...
So I'll go on sticking with my theories that, yeah, I think the S&P will hit somewhere near 1474-ish, that we hit that level sometime between now & early June... & that the market corrects roughly 20% after that...
You can carry on with your wave counts...
This is a 'trading' blog isn't it?
@AndyT
& Andy... Are we on for the 4-1 Tiger Woods bet or not? (only if I "get paid" in $19 face pre-65 coins, or that I "pay" in $100 FRN's)...
Masters start day after tomorrow you know...
here was CV"s "call"
"The S&P will start to fall apart AFTER the North Carolina GOP primary (New Jersey at the latest ~ PLAN B)"
today its stated slightly differently, but pretty much a similar call:
"I think the S&P will hit somewhere near 1474-ish, that we hit that level sometime between now & early June... & that the market corrects roughly 20% after that..."
got all that?
I actually considered it, I bet I'm the only one reading this blog that did, then saw the game being played.....
now the NC primary is on May 8, if we don't fall by then....well it'll be later fur sure, then NJ is on 6/5 (really, it doesn't matter what the market is doing on these dates, its predetermined to happen around the GOP primaries see?)
so thats how he lined the two up, give yourself a rough 2 month window and some very generic-ish target and there you have it, like I said yesterday, just like a "pro tv personality" would do it.....
keep your call to things like "after the NJ primary" which could be from 6/6/12 - the future,..... as all of those dates are "after" the NJ primary.
As Barry says: "you can give a date or a price level, but NEVER both at the same time".....so thats the game here, if you ARE going to give both you better be very general about it, otherwise, later on you won't be able to yell that you were right. In this case we don't know what really matters, the GOP primaries or the 1474 level, what will eventually emerge as mattering is whatever one appears correct at the time if one of the two plays out, of course!
he (CV) will very likely provide a few more windows in between now and June 5 of course, if anything disrupts the generic plan the Fed will be identified as the cause of the disruption and FIAT will be discussed, no doubt, over time one of these several calls will be close to right or maybe even nearly exactly right and then he'll let you all know (multiple times) about how he had all this nailed months ago, he'll even give you a link.
How much will he trade on this call? Well, nothing would be my guess. Or, maybe instead he'll time his next physical purchases around this, well, so long as those pesky local dealers will sell. After all, they probably haven't sold any gold since September last year what with these horribly depressed and manipulated lower prices in gold.
This is all because he doesn't care about paper markets, naturally.
Want to know the simple secret of how to tell this is all bullshit right up front?
there is no indication at all of where CV will have to admit he's wrong, there is no price level and no time level indicating an incorrect forecast.....thats because the market will be wrong, or rigged, according to him, his analysis is always spot on, so it can't be that.
and in the meantime, yes, we will indeed carry on with our wave counts and countless other tools being used to trade
@ben
No need to hyperventilate...
- the 1474ish call was made sometime back in January... I have numerous people on this blog to bear witness to it...
- The time differential, if there is one, between any GOP primaries isn't a 'cop out'... It's simply a rough formulation used because I have no way of knowing which primary it will be whereby the delegate count is reached... The 'theory' is based on the delegate count (which means the nomination)... It's NOT based on a calendar date... For Obama, it was North Carolina... For Romney, it may take longer to reach the level...
Again... no need to hyperventilate... It's only a kooky theory of mine (which I framed within the closest parameters that I could)...
I don't get Neely charts (like you do), but I hear you making comments all the time about modifications & revisions...
Why am I held to a higher standard than a market pro?
b22
quote:
"and in the meantime, yes, we will indeed carry on with our wave counts and countless other tools being used to trade"
3LB!!! 3LB!!! 3LB!!!
:-)
something like
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=VHC&m=2013-01
Ticker: VHC
should be worthwhile, for a 'look-see', at the min.
AAIP
@AmenRa
Yeah... 3lb is fine with me... Hell ~ "waves" are fine with me... Dow Theory... or whatever floats your boat...
I'm just a dude that likes to make predictions... There's a disclaimer on this blog that says 'THIS BLOG SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OF ANY KIND'...
As far as I know, I'm not losing anybody any money (because most people think my ideas are pretty stupid whether they are accurate or not)...
& if they forget that they are idiot ideas, then ben is here to remind them that they are, & that the key to all knowledge lies elsewhere...
for the 'thought-box'..
http://www.goyerbamate.com/Yerba-mate-La-Potente-p/p.ri.lp.htm
ibid.
CV,
1. I don't give a flying fuck when you made your "call". I'm so beyond sick and tired of the shit you spread on this blog that my only motivation is to throw right back to you the same shit you dish out every chance I get now. Since the power has been out in my office building all morning I've had ample time to do that today. I also don't care if anyone is losing money on your calls nor is that the point. I'm speaking directly to you and nobody else here.
2. Your time difference is exactly what I said it was, a generic call that reveals your half assed effort. I could care less if your theory is based on delegates rather than a date on a calendar, what I said still applies, your comment can be taken as "anytime delegates are reached after new jersey's p" its an open door basically just as saying "well eventually if they get enough delegates the call stands" is.
3. Modifications to one's outlook (what you are calling a relabeling of charts) are par for the course for ALL traders in ALL markets. You and most other people have a serious problem as it appears you think that traders simply trade their forecasts. We trade the markets, and there is a serious difference between the two. But again, I've already said 30 times today that I have 0, as in 0.0000 interest in discussing markets with you in that context. Would simply be a waste of time. And, for the record, I don't believe Andy or Neely have really much modified their wave counts in a long ass time, most of the relabeling I've seen neely done and have mentioned here are based on hourly charts for swing traders!
and finally
4. You are not even close to being held to any type of standard that a "market pro" would be held to because of what I said about your call. I know you like to come in with all your bravado acting as if you "know this stuff", again, the same type of behaivor that would drive you insane if someone did at "your job", but all your big talking doesn't mean you actually have anything to say about markets. The fact is your call provides no risk/reward anaysis at all, just as I said, you have no level to identify (either price or time) when you are wrong because you think you won't be wrong, the market will or as I said, you'll blame Bernanke or whatever on it not playing out if it doesn't go according to your idea.
Any home game TD Ameritrade baby can figure out a risk reward level and MUST do that before any trade is made.....hardly a task that is unreasonable for anyone and any call/forecast without one isn't a call at all, its just some idea that doesn't mean anything to anyone as no parameters are defined to assess whether it is right or wrong.
A market pro standard? lol, I had an instituional money manager tell me last week as he was reviewing my chart work that if I couldn't come up with daily S&P price targets within a point, one single point in a market trading over 1,400, of the forecast then the margin of error was too great to trade off of.
One point, every single day, CV.
so yeah, I'm hardly holding you anywhere near such a standard.....
I had an instituional money manager tell me last week as he was reviewing my chart work that if I couldn't come up with daily S&P price targets within a point, one single point in a market trading over 1,400, of the forecast then the margin of error was too great to trade off of...
~~~
LOL... You crack me up...
An "institutional money manager"... (tell me he has a PhD & I'll really be impressed)... I don't know him, or what he manages, but I'm sure that there are many who have done well & many who are complete bozos... You yourself talk about a guy in your office who think things like "The Brazil Olympics" are some kind of trade...
So whether you're an INSIDER (pro), or not, the world is full of people with kooky ideas (though you prefer to single out mine)...
Furthermore... This "institutional money manager" of yours which REQUIRED"
"ONE POINT, EVERY SINGLE DAY"
was also referring to predictions...
So in other words, if I now make my call "1474" (on May 8th)... Then my work is acceptable?
If not... Then NOTHING...
Which is perfect! Then we all sit on our hands & make no trades... Which is basically what I'm doing already...
one last thing
for the record, the wave labels on the charts, they really dont mean a damn thing at all.
if you mark something as a "b" and several months later you realize it should be a labeled as a different degree, we'll call it: B
guess what? the trade is long over anyway and it may or may not put you completely off track with your current count.
if I'm labeling a 5 down in what is thought to be a flat pattern that I later end up confirming and calling a "c" wave because I can see it after the fact.... does it really matter if I label it as "c" later on?
nope....I was working at the lower degree 5 wave movement that constructed the "c" wave in the first place.....
we have a mission in markets, to make money, to drain the friggen swamp, you do not need the level of expertise required to label every little squiggle correctly at minute or minuette degree in order to profit from elliott wave patterns.
"The accuracy that a trader must have about where he or she may be wrong is more important to his or her longevity than will be the accuracy of his or her market forecasts"
- Constance Brown
http://www.ehow.com/how_7584310_become-microdistiller-alcohol.html
cv--
have you given any thought to this, the above?
AAIP
CV,
I brought up the instie manager to show you what level of precision is required for some "market pros"....an "ish" call isn't part of it nor are open ended dates that aren't really about dates but about delegates....bwahahahaha.
Precise levels and stops are the type of things that are asked of people being paid to make calls about the markets when millions of dollars of capital are put at risk.
Also, because you have a very difficult time with reading apparently:
"So in other words, if I now make my call "1474" (on May 8th)... Then my work is acceptable?"
NO! No is the answer CV, it is not acceptable and NO we are NOT talking about predictions. Holy shit. We are beyond the "outlook" now CV, we are at the point where money is risked, thats something different. You already defined the outlook, markets are going up to X, then they are coming down 20%, what you don't want to do though is define the trade.
Did you miss that part in all the posts above? I did repeat it several times did I not?. My point is very, very simple:
Where do you know you're wrong? Define your trade so that we can all be on the same level in assessing its accuracy. Your "call" does NOT provide that answer, therefore, it isn't a call, its nothing because it allows your call to "stand" for as long as you wish it to regardless of which direction markets are going. You have an open door now where if markets go to 1540 by May 8 you could say
"well, not enough delegates yet, see!"
What if 1474 isn't reached by May 8?, or, is it 1474 primarily and May 8 doesn't really mean anything. What if by June 5 the S&P is 1490, is the call still good because even though price was exceeded, you gave a time window, and whats 16 points for an anonymous call anyway right? It's all just paper right? Nobody knows these answers....doubtful you know,
If instead you were to state that your stop loss is at 1379, and markets go to 1375.4 on a spike low and then go on up to 1474,... well guess what? Your forecast was right and you were stopped out of the trade and didn't make any money. Thats why so many people refuse to take that step, it forces you to be more specific than you want to be, it lowers the probability that you'll be able to come back here later on and claim you were "right" even if it takes longer than you originally stated it would, you'll still technically be right because you never defined anything.
You claimed I was holding you to the standard of a market pro, I'm not even coming close, then I gave an example of what it does look like for those people, to which you respond with some crap about PhD's as if it has anything to do with what I'm saying.
"The accuracy that a trader must have about where he or she may be wrong is more important to his or her longevity than will be the accuracy of his or her market forecasts"
~~~
See... Now THAT's something that I really like...
In making football predictions each year (which even Andy has given me kudos for)... I regularly say that it's NOT the correct calls that I make that keep me ahead, but it's the ability to spot a TRAP...
That's why... Even though I put out college game predictions... I NEVER MAKE ANY REAL BETS ON COLLEGE GAMES (because they're too unpredictable)...
In the 'pros' I'm very modest about tossing out high unit picks (& in fact, only do a PICK OF THE MONTH because it's an attention getter)...
~~~
Just for fun... I'll tell you (in real life), how I'm playing this "1474" S&P call that I've been on all year...
I'M NOT PLAYING IT AT ALL (even though I have that little amount of fiat dollars that I'd forgotton about in those BAC shares I told you about the other week)...
So why NOT bet it all on 1474 in May... Hell ~ that's worth a punt for a cocky guy like me, right? Wrong!
- I'll probably wait & see if we get near that number (much like you guys do when you get near your personal targets)...
- If I'm feeling the same way as I do now, then... I might buy some OOTM S&P puts... Hell ~ for fun... I'll even tell you here if & when I do that...
- If that works & the market corrects about 20% from there (which is my prediction)... I think I might go all in some OOTM silver calls (yes "paper silver" calls), which is an idea I proposed here a few weeks ago...
If NONE OF THE ABOVE occurs, then I'll continue to sit on my hands & do nothing...
~~~
Again: This is only a blog & I'm just a fellow blogger that's sharing what motivates me to make moves based on my individual perspective...
Thinking out loud helps me to crystalize my reasons for doing things because it's the only way to get direct feedback (which one either considers, or discards)...
Let me clarify this statement...
Even though I put out college game predictions... I NEVER MAKE ANY REAL BETS ON COLLEGE GAMES (because they're too unpredictable)...
~~~
It's NOT that the games themselves are unpredictable... It's that the pointspreads are wildly arbitrary (vs. PRO LINES)...
Good handicappers know this (but who's going to warn Joe Public about it)?
- The 'bookies' (who make the 'vig', plus bank the $$ on public error?
- The 'tout services'? ('expert' handicappers whose game is to tell half the clients TEAM A is going to win & the other half that TEAM B is going to win)... Then, whoever wins, they get the 'business' of whoever sided with the winning call (for a FEE, of course)...
~~~
I doubt it's fundamentally different in equity markets...
CV, 1:34
that speaks volumes, pretty much confirms everything I just claimed about why you won't define that trade. Simply put, it isn't one....so clearly you should understand everything I'm saying to be correct and accurate.
also, greatly enjoy the little re-write of history on "what you are" to this blog at the bottom
yep, just some guy sharing his humble individual perspective, mmmhmmmm, and if you're really lucky you'll get some direct feedback, its the only way!
thats hysterical
oh, and so nice of you to reciprocate that direct feedback you get here for anyone that ever brings up trading in a paper market, always such positive discussions that arise from that commentary.
@ben
The tagline isn't a 're-write'...
I'm just saying that at any given time & on any given subject, I'll fight hard to defend my POV...
But at the end of the day, after all the fighting & bickering is over, I'm not going to slit my wrists or 'blatantly' hold any grudges against any of the people that I openly spar with...
There are exceptions to that (to use the aforementioned 'Thor' as an example)... But that's a slightly different case in point...
There was a time, (late in 2010 ~ when he & Denise got into a tussle with Bergsten over the other blog and decided to go it on their own)...
At that point, both basically asked me NOT to ever visit or comment on their blog... So I obliged (& have never so much as even browsed that blog ever since)...
Or take Ritholtz as an example... It's not very difficult to sidestep an issue of being cernsored or banned from a blog like his... But I never bothered really to go back because Ritholtz (& his views) don't hold any cache' for me anymore...
Some people take arguments too personally...
"always such positive discussions that arise from that commentary."
~~~
POSITIVE DISCUSSIONS are what one makes of them...
I make no claims that the most poignant advances that ever came in my life were precipitated by "happy-go-lucky" banter...
@ben
Lastly... Unfortunately ~ I don't see too many indications that lead me to believe that at some point we'll have to suffer through a dollar collapse...
So unfortunately, the likelihood of 'positive discussions' (by some standards), will be few & far between...
It's a very difficult POV to hold...
- It is not my "wet dream" that the collapse occur & to think that I do so for some self-centered egotistical prediction fulfillment motive is preposterous...
- My greater struggle is trying to balance the idea of letting the game continue as it has (which is clearly in an accelerating phase of accruing benefits for FEW at the expense of MANY)... & the equally devastating destruction that might occur if & when the system were, in fact to collapse (which I feel would be painful, yet would lead to a more equitable & less corrupt period afterwards)...
Meant to say "that at some point we'll AVOID having to suffer through a dollar collapse"
BTW the Fed isn't too keen on anymore market stimulus. Market currently having a conniption fit. Here we are near the old highs and they still want more stimulus. GTFOOH.
don't try and twist what I just said
your form of response to others doesn't EVER lead to an "advance" or what I referred to as "positive discussion"
Sure, some of the best messages I've ever gotten were delivered to me in a harsh manner by someone, usually my Dad or a coach.
But, in this case, I'm not talking about the "mood" of the discussion, I'm talking about what people are able to get out of it/take away from it.
what the hell do you think people are taking away from you screaming FIAT at them on a nearly daily basis for months on end? Then calling them names, and then explaining to them why your life defines greatness, revealing all of your experiences that make you "better" than they are at assessing people in any landscape.
probably that you are nuts and not much else is the common takeaway, thus, my claim stands, these are not "positive discussions"
don't try to give me some shit then that you are just here expressing your views, a simple guy with your own thoughts because doing so outloud just helps you crystalize your views
reality has been you've shouted down anyone here that didn't go right along with whatever you said about paper money or you try to stoke that mood every day by making ignorant remarks about the Fed, waves, whatever....
Also, why would you make Denise and Thor the benchmarks for your own behaivor? Thats curious, to say the least.
"BTW the Fed isn't too keen on anymore market stimulus. Market currently having a conniption fit. Here we are near the old highs and they still want more stimulus"
but RA
how many delegates will we have after 5/8?
I'm working on a ratio chart of $SPX/$delegates
looking for some key support levels here....
" My greater struggle is trying to balance the idea of letting the game continue as it has (which is clearly in an accelerating phase of accruing benefits for FEW at the expense of MANY)... & the equally devastating destruction that might occur if & when the system were, in fact to collapse (which I feel would be painful, yet would lead to a more equitable & less corrupt period afterwards)"
A wise person once suggested that I spend more than 80% of my time on things that I can control, and less than 1% on the things that I cannot.
Also, why would you make Denise and Thor the benchmarks for your own behaivor? Thats curious, to say the least.
What's so odd about that? They're the only examples I can think of that anyone around here could use as a reference point... None of you have ever met me in person... The closest reference there, ever, was a random 'student' of one of my classes (from over 20 years ago), that karen knew from her area...
"A wise person once suggested that I spend more than 80% of my time on things that I can control, and less than 1% on the things that I cannot"
A "wise" person ought to realize that, in a most fundamental way, self sufficiency is one of purest ways to have the ability to CONTROL things... Therefore, I dedicate a lot of time & work towards being able to achieve that (which is demotes me to the "lunatic fringe" bin)...
~~~~
"BTW the Fed isn't too keen on anymore market stimulus. Market currently having a conniption fit. Here we are near the old highs and they still want more stimulus"
Is that the same Fed, chaired by the guy that said "subprime is contained" & that said "we will not monetize the debt"?
~~~
Yeah people, CV is the lunatic here, keep telling yourselves that (& keep re-inforcing it by making snide comments about delegates)...
@ben
FWIW ~ I hope I'm totally wrong about my May prediction...
Then you all, you especially, can just laugh it off & it'll be over & done with...
If I'm right ~ God forbid that I'll get any "attaboys" from the likes of you...
I'll continue to treat you like shit so long as you continue to treat others (myself included) like shit. I look now for every opportunity to rip you apart, just like you do to everyone else.
your comments on delegates was hilarious and entirely moronic in my mind, so there you go, I'll continue to jump on it just like you think we are all idiots for trading stocks and jump all over that every second you can
and as for you hoping you're wrong
don't feed me yet another line of bullshit now either....yeah, you and Diane Skank, always hoping you are wrong
and no, I certainly won't be giving you any "attaboys" about your "call" for the very specific reasons I outlined above to say nothing of the fact you aren't even trading on it!
its not a call anyway, as I said earlier, its a load of hot fucking air that nobody can define as right or wrong, ever.
last, my comment about where you dedicate time, you can never see any basic point of anything because in your mind you are already all knowing and anything to the contrary is just people "not getting you"
its real simple, all your market commentary revolves around some future potential outcome, an outcome over which you have exactly 0 input or control and that you apparently think it is all organized by a body that you are not a part of
thats what that was in relation to, clearly you didn't get it, it hardly has anything to do with your self described herculian efforts to build a self sustaining property
if I were to spell it out further, when it comes to markets, it would seem to me you spend near 99% of your time thinking about things that you have absolutely no control or influence over.
I mean, why on earth would anyone here tell you good job on a market call? Seriously? What the hell could possibly be going on in your mind where you would think anyone here would be willing to do that at this point?
Have you earned that level of respect from anyone?
the very thing you apparently hate, that you ridicule all of us for being a part of, and here you are making calls on it
for the benefit of all of us slaves
get bent
b22
The ratio of $SPX/$delegates will be 61.8%
you've got unbelievable nerve for going on and on about how such an ass anyone operating in markets is for the last what....12 months
and then you waltz in here with your 1474 call and wonder where your warm ebrace is
amazing....
but Ra, riddle me this
what color will bernankes beard be
and what kind of PAPER was Obamas fake BC typed up on? I heard the Jews typed up this fake BC for him, saw a youtube vid on it even....must be true, but I haven't been able to source it, yet.
surely this will reveal the clue to where markets will close in year of our lord, 3109.
What's bothering me is that the bears are having problems closing at the low. Kind of like how Kansas let the game get away from them.
BB will go old school and shave off his hair and beard. This way no one can identify him if all hell breaks loose.
Cvienne – Unlike you I truly hold no grudges at the end of the day, because in the end it simply does not matter and although there are several things I “agree” in theory with you, I disagree on the path on how we get there.
But when you 1) Re-write history to make yourself look better and 2) use examples of people you know are not around to defend themselves (And quite frankly no longer care to get caught up in your long winded circular arguments),
It is time to make sure the facts come out.
Many of the people currently here and many of the fine posters who have drifted away, first met up at TBP where we were able to exchange thoughts and ideas and we grew in kinsmenship.
However BR didn’t seem to find the flow of our conversations to his liking and started changing the rules which made it more and more difficult hold our chats, so Andy T took it upon himself to start his own blog with an open invitations to all, after awhile Andy realized even though he liked blogging he could no longer commit the time to it and effectively shut down his blog.
At this point Jim Bergsten started a “Community” blog with people who wanted to become the Admin could post threads, now I am not saying this is the best way to run a blog, but it worked for a few months.
It worked until Bergsten got tired of being told how to run a blog and I can assure you it was not Thor, nor Denise, who was telling him how to run it – It was in fact you.
So once again we migrated, however this time it was into two groups. One group that followed you to YOUR blog, now AmanRa’s and the other group, who was tired of your bluster and bullying….Yes Bullying, you see you need an adversary, you feel all of life is a competition and as long as you could take a sharp stick and poke your adversary (In that case Thor and Denise{Currently Ben} [But it has been several others]) in your mind you were winning the competition.
Now by no means am I trying to defend Thor or paint him in a better light than he deserves, as I know he did some ugly things too, but they were things done only after getting poked with your sharp stick.
Your arguments are circular and unwinnable, so when the other party finally says No Mas You claim yourself Winner.
Although you profess to “But at the end of the day, after all the fighting & bickering is over, I'm not going to slit my wrists or 'blatantly' hold any grudges against any of the people that I openly spar with...” I am a witness that proves you wrong.
At every opportunity you make attacks toward BR, bringing things up that are weeks, months and even years old.
In the weeks and months after the blogs split you made frequent trips to the “Other” blog with the soul intent of being an antagonist, which then brought Thor over here in response and soon we were having Blog wars.
Even after Thor and Denise vowed never to come back over here, you continued to sharpen your stick for the sole purpose of going over there to poke them with it. And even today you bring up their names like it matters – Dude you hold deep seated and ugly grudges.
After all that has been said and done over the past couple years, after all the great commenter’s who have passed through here only to find a more hospitable home for themselves – My hat is off and I wear my admiration on my sleeve for AmanRa, for being the heart of this blog. My hat is off to Andy, Ben, MEH and a few others for being the soul of this blog.
That’s about all I have to say.
Mangy Mutt
@ben
Who said anything about any warm embrace? (other than to surely say that I'd certainly never get one, even with a correct prediction which is, as yet, undetermined)...
- I see nothing much 'tradeable' in markets (for myself), since Aug 2010... Which I state...
- At that same moment (2010)... I say that I'm going long physical silver (which was $20 at the time ~ & proceeded to go to $50)... Along that same timeframe... I made it clear that it was not a TRADE (& further that over $32 was not an accumulation point IMO)... Along that same timeframe, I re-iterated that when the price dropped to $26, I was back in accumulation mindset, but unluckily, I was shut out of physical purchases at the small collection of local stores... I recounted that it had nothing to do with inventory levels (but rather that the local dealers didn't want to part with bullion at that price)... I offered it on this blog as, perhaps, a 'tradeable' anecdote...
- Finally the S&P (which I had been out of since Aug 2010), comes back onto my radar screen as being moving towards an actionable trade (in my personal POV)... That moment was in January, & the target I set (& commented on, was, 1474)... I admitted I had not traded on that...
- Now we have moved closer to that target, & there are certain indications which favor that possibility... Is it against the law to share those thoughts here? (or does every comment have to be by a qualified expert)?
~~~
& yes, I feel that notwithstanding any of the above, the dollar could, in my lifetime, collapse...
So together... It's what's known as a "hedge"... IOW ~ What if I'm WRONG about the dollar collapsing? If I was 100% in on that bet, I'd be living in a nuclear missle silo in Nebraska or something...
Just because I believe that there is a SEVERE RISK to financial markets, doesn't mean I have all my eggs in one basket...
We all (myself included), still live in this glorious world of trading paper dollars as we speak... I am not disconnected from that world (simply realize that it is on a very shaky foundation)...
~~~
Likewise ~ I'd wager a guess that some of the 'self sufficient' measures that one thinks he might need to do to weather a potential financial collapse, you do yourself?
You rarely articulate any of that, but I'm pretty confident you do those things... If you made those thoughts public, I certainly wouldn't 'chastize' you for it...
So basically... BOTH of us live in a world where our 'bets' are likely hedged to our own tastes...
Look at a five munite chart of TNX. The dumping of USTs were in full effect after the Fed minutes. I guess if the Fed ain't buying why the hell are we holding them?
Kenobi was seen wandering through Wall Street looking for bears and telling them "this is not the close you were looking for".
@Mutt
I'm sure everyone appreciates all your input but on the 'Thor & Denise' subject (which ended up being the main focus of your comment)...
Let it go...
Go back & read my (2:12) comment above...
I SWEAR THIS IS THE HONEST TO GOD TRUTH, but I'd intended to end that whole comment AS IS, as follows:
"@ben
The tagline isn't a 're-write'...
I'm just saying that at any given time & on any given subject, I'll fight hard to defend my POV...
But at the end of the day, after all the fighting & bickering is over, I'm not going to slit my wrists or 'blatantly' hold any grudges against any of the people that I openly spar with..."
Then I had to pause for a second... I thought to myself... "If I leave it like that ~ somebody is sure to bring up previous instances and call them into question"... Naturally, Ritholtz & friends came to mind (so I attempted to answer that rebuttal before it was attempted)...
Now ~ I'm sorry I even bothered to mention it...
& you're wrong... I don't know what your definition of a GRUDGE is, but perhaps it varies from mine...
If I think someone's ideas are full of baloney, I'll say it... Same way ben tells me my ideas are full of baloney...
- Andy has had numerous criticisms of Ritholtz (& the fights that Andy had with Thor & Denise were arguably worse than my own)... Nobody is exempt from this...
- ben fought with them
- karen was called names
- I think even Hof had his spats
Probably the only 'saint' here is, in fact, Amen Ra...
Bottom line is... THIS IS A FLIPPIN BLOG... If I were to go to a restaurant & see Ritholtz (or any of the other characters) sitting there, what? do you think I'd go up and attempt to ruin their dinner? (Answer is: "No", if you're interested)...
When a person writes, it is a form of expression (some people are more passionate than others)... Any comments I make are a form of energetic release (release "valve"), where the pressure of living in an arguably corrupt world can be given the "cold shower" treatment...
One of the first comments that Thor ever made about me was describing me as "the UNIBOMBER" (he even spelled it wrong)...
Calling a person that (that you have never met), is a little different that making generic comments about the ultimate risks involved in betting that the dollar will remain the worlds reserve currency for all eternity & the inherent risks that trading equities presents in that paradigm (& probing into the mindset of people who appear to have heavily weighted bets on one side of that)...
& Mutt
Let me tell you another story about "revised history" (why is this something else that I just know beforehand is going to be a mistake)?... But here goes anyway...
OK ~ a few weeks ago on this blog, I don't remember the exact words, but I basically remember the sequence...
- Somebody makes a comment about "vodka"...
- I make a comment, something to the extent of "vodka snobs" & that you can run cheap vodka thru a Brita filter to make it taste better
- I think even Hoffer chimes in to support that statement
- About a week passes, & lo & behold, Mutt has gone out & done a full practical research job on (taste testing & all)
- Andy T comes on the next day & gives Mutt full kudos for the whole experiment (which was, ostensibly 'seeded' by an idea that cv presented in the first place)...
- Do I make a big deal about it? No! I don't even mention it (until now ~ & only because it serves as an example on how stories get twisted around)
- The only comment I recall making in the whole process of you recounting your story was perhaps about the good looking woman you said you took advice on with regards to what premium brand to buy... & frankly I can't remember if I actually commented (or was just 'thinking' some thoughts about it)...
- In any case... It didn't make that much difference to me that you had taken over the whole episode, so I stayed out of it...
- The fact is, my original comment was only that... A COMMENT... I certainly didn't do any legwork on the subject (which you did), so it's probably all right in the end...
"Who said anything about any warm embrace?"
CV, on several different threads this year, including today's, you lamented over the fact that nobody was recognizing your "calls"
I'm not about to go dig them all up, its enough for me to know for sure that they exist.
also, no reason to be bringing me up in the context of thor and denise, I squashed any issues I had with those two years ago....years ago!
and there you are again trying to rehash your non-calls again to show us all the things you "got right"
I once again wasted time with you this morning as you still do not understand that you have never once made a legit call, one that can be proven right or wrong, you just don't get it.
If I've sounded like a dick today, well, I'm trying to be.
and for the record, I've only ever made about 1% or less of anything I'm doing public on this blog.
I'm just not that interesting, and I highly doubt anyone cares that much about my life.
"Yeah people, CV is the lunatic here, keep telling yourselves that (& keep re-inforcing it by making snide comments about delegates)...
April 3, 2012 3:04 PM
"
Then
"One of the first comments that Thor ever made about me was describing me as "the UNIBOMBER" (he even spelled it wrong)..."
So basically what you are saying is Thor was the first one to call you a Lunitic, but since then everyone else has jumped on that bandwagon.
Thanks for connecting the dots for me.
So does that make is safe to concluded Thor has clearer eyes to see with?
Mutt
"Calling a person that (that you have never met), is a little different that making generic comments about the ultimate risks involved in betting that the dollar will remain the worlds reserve currency for all eternity......"
is that the bet anyone makes if the trade, i don't know, AAPL? Nope, but it is in CV's mind
and please, more re-writes is all that is
stop pretending this is all you've done, simply presented a view that you are warning us all that the dollar could have an issue. Stop insulting people here by tring to lie about what you've done. Bullshit!
so someone called you the Unibomber
people that never called you anything of the sort are referred to you as fools, morons, slaves, assholes, idiots ever since your "awakening" in 2010
I couldn't even begin to rattle all the names off, so quit your crying already.
"referrd to, by you, as....."
lets see, did I start calling CV a lunatic one day out of the blue, or did CV start trashing everyone that had anything at all to dow with the market, at which point I stated that he was an asshole
I'm fairly certain I know the real timeline of events
Did Karen call CV a lunatic, did Ra, did Andy, did i-man, did leftback
nope, only after he called them fools did they ever respond in a negative way
once CV stopped trading and everyone else didn't, his response was to lash out
and well, you reap what you sow
@Mutt (5:04)
Once again... History revised...
When Thor made that comment to me, it was summer 2009... I was fully daytrading markets then (I used to frequently sneak off with I-Man to abandoned threads on TBP blog to talk about daytrading)...
When I refer to the quote you used in your (5:04), I'm basically referring to my aquisition of the "lunatic" bin since, about the time I abandoned daytrading in 2010 & my expressed reasons for doing so...
ben, nowadays, has taken to belittling any & all thoughts I might have about the market because he sees little merit in my reasoning...
So in the end, I'm a lunatic because I've altered my stance to having doubts about the financial system (which weren't present before)...
Those descriptions have nothing to do with 'Thor's' motivations for using that direct & personal label in 2009...
Once & for all... (to all present on this blog)...
If I directly called any one of you a fool, or a moron, or a slave, or an idiot...
I apologize...
Ben's not going to bother looking that up, but I'll put this this an easier way...
Ben... Have I ever called you an "asshole", or a "moron", or an "idiot", or a "slave"?... Seems to me you would remember if I had...
Frankly ~ I think if I had ever done that, you would have never spoken to me or addressed me again on this blog...
& you're the only one (besides Andy & Amen Ra), that I've ever exchanged e-mails with... Have I ever been anything other than cordial with you on e-mails (to the extent that even as we speak, we're engaged in a fantasy baseball league, that I "invited" you into)?...
Anyway... On this blog, you & I mix it up more (& more frequently) than anyone else, so surely you'd have been subject of a direct target...
I recall making some snide personal comments towards Bruce (which I regretted & subsequently apologized for)...
Other than that, any & all comments of the "idiot" nature lean towards the questioning the thought process of full fledged participants in an arguably crumbling economic paradigm...
It's not personal... It's generic...
Calling someone an 'asshole' is personal...
For the record...
My 'style' of commentary (on this blog) probably morphed towards being more 'acerbic' after I started posting (& mixing it up) more on the Zero Hedge blog...
Funny thing is... There, you practically have free run to single out anyone you please and call them an "idiot" or a "moron"...
I'm not in the mood to get into any fights with anyone over there, so if you run thru my history of comments there, I'm mostly either joking around, or adding a twist to an argument... If you make the wrong enemy there, some have been known to dog you forever (no offense, Mutt)...
In any case, the 'attitude' (constant reading of stark commentary) has probably rubbed off a little & I have little motivation to have to 'polish up my act' before making any comments here... Since I spent an entire year running this blog & refreshing it with content, I suppose I felt I would be granted a little liberty...
Apparently I was wrong about that...
New thread up...
Thanks Amen... (I won't follow 'this' dialogue onto that one)...
Here's a tidbit from a typical "day in the life"...
So I run across this link today...
http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2012/04/6375-milion-ounces-of-paper-silver.html
~~~
What to make of it? Can I 'verify' it? (no)...
But if it is true, stories like that are compelling...
For that life of me, I can't figure out why equity traders (on a blog like this), would fail to see a story in a piece of information like that...
Especially because similar stories (many of which are aligned with, at minimum, 'hinting' towards some awkward move brewing)...
"ben has taken to belittling any & all thoughts I might have about the market because he sees little merit in my reasoning"
untrue, partially....
the truth is that I don't care about anything you say about markets. Nothing at all that you have to say about markets matters to me or is even remotely important to me. If I spent 1 minute thinking about anything you say about markets its 1 minute too much. So, I'm hardly concerned with the process of how you reason about markets nor is that where my issues are, they are with YOU and the manner in which you treat everyone here, even now. of course, I already explained all this in one of the personal emails you speak of, now I'll spell it out for you here, where you are also going to ignore it
your big giant 2010 epiphany about "the evil dollar" its not news to ANYONE here, it was known by me long, long, before I ever knew the great and powerful CV even existed. Some people here probably knew about dollar issues before I was even born. Before I even knew you existed I was being paid by people twice my age to help them prepare for such things.
My sole purpose right now is to slam you so hard over the head on this blog that you either leave entirely or you start to leave other people the fuck alone. When you stop treating people poorly on a consistent basis here, I will stop treating you that way. As of now, I'm pretty much the only one here willing to tell you to shut the fuck up on a regular basis, so I'll play that role until people either ask me to stop or it isn't needed anymore. I don't mind mixing it up.
did you personally call me any names? No because you didn't have to, you implied it every single time you made the claim that anyone, anyone! that was involved with markets was a moron, an idiot, etc. That would include me, of course.
don't insult me now even further by trying to pretend you didn't do that to me and everyone else here, that you specifically called others by name is not relevant to me at all your comments were clearly meant for anyone trading stocks, bonds, etc.
and if you are going to try to claim that once you left the markets everyone here started to label you as a lunatic its only going to fall on deaf ears, everyone here knows thats a flat out lie, that is not at all how this played out, not even close
oh, gee look, clients are here
thank god for CV, I'd have no idea what to talk with them about.....
we're all so helpless without him "bringing the light"
@ben
Good luck with your clients...
I don't envy your job...
"did you personally call me any names? No because you didn't have to, you implied it"
Thanks for answering my question... No, I didn't make any personal attacks on you...
As for what's "implied" or not... What's the purpose of argument, ANY ARGUMENT, if someone doesn't use tactics that appeal to someone's ego?
To say something directly, & personal is one thing... To generically "shake the bushes" a little to see what opposing arguments are drawn out, and who is willing to present them is a different story...
Frankly, it's something that is used quite frequently in modern business...
~~~
I guess I'm just debating with myself here, but I see the subject as follows...
Hypothetically ~ Let's say the dollar collapses (& that people are caught wrongfooted because they'd invested their daily bread into the concept that it would continue in perpetuity)...
If thay happens, I'd wager a guess that they'll look back at themselves and lament to themselves ("How could I have been so stupid to let that happen")...
I've called myself an "idiot" many times for past mistakes I've made...
At present, I feel it is "idiotic" for myself, to be heavily invested in equity markets, or to hold a great deal of wealth in fiat paper...
Yet at the same time, I've readily acknowledged that I understand that you all here have motivations that are different than mine... I've spoken about Andy & his family, I've spoken about you & your responsibility to clients... I've openly acknowledged that...
I understand...
But I still have little faith in the system, so I have little else left but to call it what I think it is... It works (for now), but it makes no sense to me anymore...
I still dabble around the fringes of it though because "What if I'm wrong"?...
I don't live in a hole...
A comment, picked up from another blog, regarding this article...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/man-vs-machine-how-each-sees-stock-market#comment-2314925
~~~
CvlDobd
"So are you suggesting one is at a disadvantage? jk that's obvious
I have a Dorsey Wright subscription and they have a forum for users. For the most part it is a bunch of old school guys that think nothing has changed in the markets to affect the effectiveness of thier tools. Myself and one or two other guys try to point out some of the bullshit of modern finance and continously get attacked for being a stupid biased bear. I have talked with some offline and once you get to them they begrudingly admit that their results over the past two years is often shit. Then they go on to discuss a distrust of sell signals and trend changes because they tend to mark bottoms. What they forgot in their reluctance to use candles is time. On candles I can mark every major low since 2008 with a money printing operation. The pnf charts account for time in a strange way that makes id'ing bottoms of the past tough to pinpoint their exact turn.
Anyway sorry to ramble but I see stuff like this and feel certain that every skill set I have in the market is next to useless. I get so pissed when others in the industry refuse to admit that shit is fucked. How can you look at these two charts and think that anything from the good ole days applies?
As the guy above said. If you don't know what the next tick will be in these markets you are next to fucked."
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