AmenRa's Corner 4.3.12

"Can I come out and play?"

Creditcane™: Decided to put a little pep in the bears step.


SPX
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above all SMA's. Failing the 0.0% retrace (1419.15). Tested and held the lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1392.78). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing the 61.8% minor retrace (79.60). Tested and held SMA(55,144). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 78.82).



VIX
Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Holding above its 100.0% retrace (14.27). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 14.26).



GOLD
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (1661.00). Tested and failed SMA(21,233). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1714.10). Still above monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (1.3227). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3465).



JNK
Spinning top day (confirmed inverted hammer…barely). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(55). Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (39.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.88).



10YR YIELD
Bullish long day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (22.11). No daily 3LB (reversal is 22.98).



WTI
Bearish short day. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 61.8% retrace (102.98). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 110.31). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.



SILVER
Bearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(21,144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (32.01). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.35).



BKX
Hanging man day (w/long tail). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Now failing its 50.0% minor retrace (50.01). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 49.09).



HYG/LQD
Spinning top day. Tested and held SMA(21,89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7953).



USDJPY
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (82.739). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 81.73).



AAPL
Spinning top day (another open window appears). Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (621.45). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 599.55).




IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

37 comments:

cv said...

@Andy

Andy I guess I'm going to have to say that we're "NOT ON" for the Tiger Woods Masters bet...

I made a final verification attempt to pin you down on it (in the last thread), but it probably got lost in the shuffle...

Problem is... I'm not going to be near a computer (thankfully), for the next 2 days & by that time the Masters tournament will have started...

So officially... That proposal is null & void...

Anonymous said...

cv--

w/: "...My 'style' of commentary (on this blog) probably morphed towards being more 'acerbic' after I started posting (& mixing it up) more on the Zero Hedge blog..."

what does your 'posting', @ 0 Hedge, have to do with your 'lack of consideration' here?
~~~

also, re: AT & 'bet on "Masters" Tourney..

he gave you the 'A O.K.', many, threads ago..

@ 4:1

U$D ~400(in Ag) v. U$D 100 (FRN)

you being 'out' U$D 100 if 'the Striped One' finishes Second, or Worst..

AAIP

p.s. "He's" Good for it, I'll Guarantee it.

cv said...

@Mark

I missed that comment...

I would prefer to have Andy himself, simply, confirm whether he wants to go forward with the bet or not...

Please... I'll acknowledge my own stupidity for not seeing it clearly (if Andy had already agreed to the terms), but it gets muddled when 3rd parties enter into the picture...

Andy, if you're reading this thread, you have this evening to acknowledge... Do it for my sake... I'll check back in tomorrow morning, but then I'm outta here until at least Friday morning (so it would be too late)...

Mark... I made a comment to Amen (at the end of the last thread), that I wasn't going to carry on the discussion of that thread to this one...

Well, save for the singular 'golf bet' comment anyway...

Anonymous said...

cv--

actually, my non-'Golf Bet' Q: is 'Thread Independent'..

AAIP

Andy T said...

@CV.

I'm good for for the 100/400 bet if you're still game. I'll lay Woods against the fields.

AT

Andy T said...

Pretty wild day.

Traders should be out of the bearish DXY and bullish Gold trades right now.

To the sidelines....

Matthew said...

I have been raising cash over the past two months. I am up to 42% cash, with a large portion of my non-cash holdings in high quality bonds.

This is the highest proportion of cash that I have had since August.

My thesis is that, while economic data has been relatively healthy, risk assets are pricing in extremely high growth, margins, etc. While all of this projected good news could happen, paying these prices won't compensate you for the risk of disappointments.

It seems like there is tremendous incentive to take profits at these levels and watch how things play out. I know it's not sexy, but I would rather watch the circus than be in the circus when the show comes to the point of taming lions.

b22 said...

Propaganda:

http://www.hftreview.com/pg/blog/mike/read/5323/debunking-six-myths-of-hft

"Detractors who claim that HFT causes volatility or price impact (for example, Joe Saluzzi of Themis who has repeatedly claimed on television that HFTs are responsible for driving stock prices higher since March 2009) are either ignorant or deliberately deceptive. A trader who starts and ends each day with no positions can not materially impact the price of stocks – the positive impact of their buy trades is exactly canceled by the negative impact of their sell trades. You’d have to engage in some serious contortions of logic to argue otherwise."

b22 said...

"(4) Technology gives HFTs an unfair advantage over individual investors: This charge is preposterous, because the two sides are not in competition. In fact, retail investors are completely insulated from the details of market structure, because their orders never make it to the exchanges where they compete with other orders. Virtually 100% of all retail orders are routed directly by the originating brokerage firm to a highly exclusive group of HFTs (known as OTC market-makers) to be executed. To the extent that such HFTs adopt advanced technology to provide this service, it accrues to the BENEFIT of retail investors. Would you want your surgeon to be using anything less than the most advanced technology? If not, then why would you want the firm that is being hired by your broker to fill your orders to use anything less than the most advanced technology? For the record, I’ve had an account at TD Ameritrade since 1998, when it was known as Datek Online. Since that time, I’ve executed 100% of my discretionary trading activity (which is substantial) in that brokerage account. Though I am the CEO of a firm that has uses advanced technology to engage in HFT, I see no benefits whatsoever to using such infrastructure to execute my discretionary trades, which is why I’m perfectly happy to continue using a run-of-the-mill online brokerage account for this purpose."

Andy T said...

@Ben.

I've often thot that the HFT deal has been blown out of proportion a bit.

People often jumble the issue of HFT with "Algorithmic" trading. The two are different.

I don't like the fact that the HFT computers are co-located with the exchange servers ... that doesn't pass the smell test for me. But, in terms of 'market theory'...it doesn't matter that much.

Check the backstory of those who are complaining the most ... the motives become clear upon light examination.

Anonymous said...

AT,

you might care to grab your 'fine-toothed Comb'..

here: "...the fact that the HFT computers are co-located with the exchange servers..."

with: "...doesn't pass the smell test for me..."

You're on the Track (/with a *Proper Part..)

past that...

'don't forgive 'The Sinners''...~

AAIP

qqqqtrader said...

@ Matthew

I hear ya, 401K in cash, bonds, WF guaranteed income fund (1-2%) for a while now.
Cash is King!

Ain't even gonna sift thru the shit on the previous page... what a cast of caricatures

qqqqtrader said...

SPX 60 min look'n like a frik'n sine-wave thru 1406 last 3 weeks, buy below, sell above, just saying ...

1456
1425
1406
1375
1325

cv said...

@AndyT

Still going around in circles on this... The issue on the bet is not just the 4:1...

The issue is with the method of payout...

If I win, I want my payment in $19 (pre-1965) worth of US coinage (vis-a-vis; 38 "franklin halves" ~ like the last bet)...

So I need to you know if you have that inventory...

My side ($100 FRN's is no problem)... The little pieces of paper are all over the friggin place...

cv said...

I'm just going to assume you have them... & you understand...

The bet is on!

If I lose, I'm still going to need you to e-mail me your address... I still have $25 I have to give you for Booey football... The other week you said you had sent it, but I never got it...

So if I lose here, I'll send you $125... If I win, I'll send you $25 anyway... It's burning a hole in my pocket... Hard to resist the temptation to go out and buy Peace Dollar or something...

cv said...

@ben

This potential argument does not have any possibility at becoming long & drawn out (for the simple reason that I'm not going to be around all day today & tomorrow...

But on this... your (10:41)... Which starts with the word... "Propaganda"...

~~~

Ummm... Let's see... An article from a web site that has the URL:

http://www.hftreview.com/

That puts a "positive" spin on HFT...

Go figure!

~~~

Would that be like a website which had the URL

http://www.ilovejustinbeiber.com/

... telling you how he was the greatest singer since Leif Garrett or the Bay City Rollers?

b22 said...

OH, CV, wow, you got me bwahahahahaha

instead of going directly to one of the largest and original sources of HFT in a one:one interview we should .....let me guess, read Zero Hedge? Watch a youtube video full of quotes about dirty jews that can't be sourced? None of those are sites dedicated to the very topic at hand so they must be more accurate, surely!

anybody seeing you say that has to be laughing pretty hard right now considering many of your claims and where they come from, which mostly straight out of your ass

so here's the deal: with just a ittle bit of understanding about how markets work one can see right through most of the HFT bullshit that is spread by the likes of Zero Hedge, the type of article that was linked at the bottom of yesterdays' thread with some arbitrary post with two charts one of which was a "nanosecond" chart....oooooooh, and then commentary about "old school" traders in some forum that are using what....point and figure charts? lol......

its only propaganda for a tool like yourself, that was special, just for you

I cut two snips from the entire article (the rest of which you didn't read) as follows:

The first one shows that most of the people that go on tv and rail against HFT are simply pissed off because their job is gone thanks to computers. Joe Saluzzi is one of them.

The second point was that Retail schmucks, like yourself, need to understand that you are not competing against HFT's, and they don't have any real impact on pretty much any retail investors. As andy said, algorithm trading systems, which can hold for days, weeks, or months, are something different.

notable in the article is that the guy points out that anything "against" wall street is popular now and the government enjoys it as well, hence, most people with little to knowledge get suckered into the HFT nonsense.

This is not an "argument" CV. You are clueless. I'll tell you this all day again today if you need me to, figured you got your fill yesterday

b22 said...

@andy

the guy does talk briefly about the co-location, he says thats only half the speed advantage, the primary issue is making sure when things start moving very fast, is to be sure the algorithm is efficient in all aspects

if you consider that, the co-location would seem not to be the primary critical component here. In any event, HFT is currently a 2-4 billion dollar profit generator right now for the street

wow, huge.......not

but surely, surely "they" are hiding the other fafillion clownbucks they earn each year by ripping off ma and pa TD Ameritrade baby.

Ben22 said...

"AT,

you might care to grab your 'fine-toothed Comb'..

here: "...the fact that the HFT computers are co-located with the exchange servers..."

with: "...doesn't pass the smell test for me..."

You're on the Track (/with a *Proper Part..)"


@AAIP,

with the above, I'm assuming you have some insight? Why not share then with the rest of us. What do you know about the co-location and what is hidden in that interview regarding that topic in particular?

I'd love to know as I continue to do more and more research on this stuff.

Personally, I thought his commentary here in particular speaks volumes about the types of conversations that happen on a blog like this one on a daily basis:

"So, there are clearly many reasons for the controversy. However, to me, none is bigger than the fact that the market structure is so byzantine that few people, including otherwise savvy institutional investors, have any clue how it works. The main culprit behind much of this complexity is Reg-NMS, the ill-advised attempt a few years ago by regulators to de-fragment the market, which in fact did precisely the opposite. When the rules of the game are so complex, people naturally suspect that the game might be unfair. It is important to recognize that even in a perfectly fair game, such as chess, some players are naturally stronger than others — markets are no exception to this principle. However, when the rules themselves are so complex, it is impossible for players to determine whether a competitor’s advantage is unfair, or due to skill. This sort of suspicion is hugely damaging to the market because it undermines confidence in the system. Unfortunately, regulators and policy-makers seem determined to exacerbate the problem by introducing even more complex rules and regulations into the system for people to digest. In reality, what they SHOULD do is to dismantle the parts of Reg NMS that have exacerbated the technology arms race and contributed to never-ending fragmentation. I’m referring to the order-protection provision of Rule 611 of Reg NMS, which bans locked markets. I’ve written an article on this topic for Instutional Investor magazine, and have also addressed this topic within an official comment letter to the SEC. Lifting this ban would go a long way to making the markets simpler and fairer."

just for good measure, one more time:

"When the rules of the game are so complex, people naturally suspect that the game might be unfair. It is important to recognize that even in a perfectly fair game, such as chess, some players are naturally stronger than others — markets are no exception to this principle"

b22 said...

CV type logic:

1. If a site is called fanstasyfootballreview, and in that review it is shown that the writer likes Oakland over Buffalo, then surely that site is biased and only paints Oakland in a positive light.

2. If a site is called electricdriverreview, they must be biased toward Chevy Volts if they do an interview with someone from Chevy.

3. If a magazine is called guitarreview, and they interview the CEO of Martin guitars, that rag must be biased toward Martin guitars.

4. If I watch a show called "friday night movie review" and the people there discuss Hunger Games, well, surely they must be biased toward hunger games

I could go on......forever.

The idea that one rejects any message out of hand simply because of the URL on the website,...... thats for clowns.

cv said...

@ben

You misunderstood... somewhat...

~~~

Rewind... Your (10:14) simply typed "Propaganda"... which was followed by a quote from an article... no other commentary...

~~~

Frankly ~ I wasn't sure whether you were dissing the article by 'CALLING IT' propaganda at the beginning... Or using it as a baseline for a defense of HFT...

So my commentary... In that style, was designed to draw you out on the subject...

I now have my answer...

~~~

For my part... I have no official stance on HFT (nor would anyone, especially you, really be interested in my opinions if I had them)...

In the end though, you frequently use the method of taking an issue that people discuss, then attach one article to it & say "Look! that solves that problem... It's official! case closed!"...

Now, admittedly, I do the same thing, but you never fail to jump on my case when I do...

~~~

& in this case, I frankly didn't know which side you were on in the first place... I half expected you to reply with a "haha... that's funny"...

b22 said...

CV,

First and foremost, of course I have no interest in your opinion on HFT, you know nothing about them. Simply put, more hot air.

Second, your little pretend game now where you are going to try and claim that at 7:39 you were simply trying to ask me my opinion? Oh, get fucked son. You most certainly were not, but now you have to backtrack.

Even if I gave you the benefit of the doubt and agreed you were asking my opinion, here's a novel idea for you

Ask me direct questions, its amazing how effective this is.

On another note
I drive by a billboard every day on i95

it reads:

I Hate Steven Singer

there's even a website, so if I was a big tool, and I only looked at the title of that site, well surely I can only conclude one thing

they must be biased against Steven Singer! Of course!

http://ihatestevensinger.com/

what you are trying to do here since late yesterday in explaining that your motivation over the last two years in speaking to people as you have was to draw opinions out much as is done as a "modern business practice", is so hilarious and I"m quite certain that everyone here sees right through your bullshit claim there

cv said...

@ben

The bottom line to what I'm saying is that I think one, myself included, has to be very careful in being 'authoritarian'... (remember ~ I said 'MYSELF INCLUDED')...

- I've become fairly conscientious about it when I'm talking in the fitness realm (where I am, unquestionably, a pro)...

- I can huff & puff all day long (on other subjects), & just because I have an strong & authoritarian tone with everything, it sounds like I'm making myself out to be an expert, but I'm NOT [& I know I'm not]... The 'balance' point comes when smart people read, then think for themselves, & say... "You know... CV is talking out of his ass there... I'm going to let that one slip by & or CALL him on it, which you rarely pass up an opportunity to do"...

But I believe everyone has to step away from all that (the "find the expert in the crowd" game)...

In politics, I'm all but certain that Washington DC is corrupt as shit... I can't lay a finger on any of it because I don't work on the "inside", but it's one of those things that you just know...

So does that mean that since Barack Obama is POTUS, I should just sit back, STFU, & say... "Well, he's the EXPERT, so I have no business entering in to the discussion"...

All I know is this... You say I don't belong here because I'm not a professional trader...

I say... GD right I belong here, because, collectively, all the apparatus they use make markets (whether it's benign or criminal) has an impact on my very existence as well as an impact on humanity itself...

Fitness is fine with me because I always know what the barrier is between universal & personal... In fact, most of the time, (with clients), I have to forcefully tell them to be careful not to wander too far out... That the ultimate responsibility for their well being resides with THEM & I'm only here to answer questions & offer framework...

b22 said...

CV,

I'm past the point of caring about "where you are coming from"

thats door is closed now.....

and btw, I ignored most of what I thought you were saying incorrectly about markets for years on end

you forced my hand pal....

as for "all you know"

I already made quite clear to you several times now, all of which you consistently ignored, that my problem with you is not that you aren't a professional trader, it has nothing to do with that at all

its you, yourself, and your shit manner in which you treat others daily, putting yourself on some high horse and treating people like shit while screaming FIAT at the top of your lungs

or as I said yesterday, what you sow you reap

and you get me, and I'm a huge asshole, clearly

cv said...

@Mutt

Are you up to mischief again?

http://espn.go.com/golf/masters12/story/_/id/7773849/2012-masters-tale-dog-eaten-tickets-ends-well-seattle-area-man

cv said...

@Mutt

Are you up to mischief again?

http://espn.go.com/golf/masters12/story/_/id/7773849/2012-masters-tale-dog-eaten-tickets-ends-well-seattle-area-man

AmenRa said...

The bears feast.
And it is good.

Anonymous said...

McB,

w/:"...The main culprit behind much of this complexity is Reg-NMS, the ill-advised attempt a few years ago by regulators to de-fragment the market, which in fact did precisely the opposite..."

Dude begins to 'lay down the 'breadcrumbs''..

but, to your Q:..

LSS: "HFT"...

O hey, I gotta Jet..

I get back to this Later-on..

Sorry~

AAIP

O, and "Don't Feed the Trolls/Tools" ~

cv said...

On the eve of the Masters...

You know what's cool about golf?

It's uniquely democratic... You don't have to be an expert to enjoy the game...

Any hack can stand there in a "pro-am" foursome & at any given time, knock in a hole in one, or sink a 40 foot putt for birdie on a hole where Tiger Woods himself might have made par...

That's what's cool about it... (Even to Tiger Woods himself)...

cv said...

& it's more that that...

3 of the 4 "majors" (Masters, US Open, & "The Open"), there are spots for amateurs...

US Open & Open, if you have a verified low enough handicap (by USGA or R&A), you can enter a local qualifier, which leads to a sectional qualifier... Which basically means you can "win your way in"...

Masters too... The criteria is tougher (you need professional tour wins, but aside from that, if you win either the US Amateur, the US Mid-Amateur, or US Am Pub Links, or British Amateur, you get an invite)... So you can win your way in...

~~~

I was never more nervous in my life than playing in those "Q" Tournaments (but it was all I could think about all year long)...

I knew it was a million to one shot, but it didn't stop me from trying (& the bonus was that I got to play a lot of exclusive country clubs around the US for free)...

Twice (in US Open qualifiers), & once in a US Amateur qualifier, during the round, I found what was very close to becoming a "lost ball" (5 min. rule) at the buzzer for the eventual
winner of those tournaments...

While it was pure luck & coincidence that I ended up finding the ball(s), the relief & expressions on the faces of the golfers that I found the ball for (a stroke & distance penalty would have made all 3 miss the cut), was something I'll never forget...

It was worth the whole entry just to experience that moment...

cv said...

I can't say what was going on in the minds of those players that I found the ball for during the entire round (& funny, this is true ~ all three times it was on the 18th hole, save for the case of the US Amateur time where it was the "36th" hole)...

Most of the round, they were probably thinking... "Jeez ~ why did they pair me with this hack who's gonna shoot an 81"...

Then, in one second (with 5 USGA officials, one other golfer, & all 3 caddies around)... It was like... "Man, thanks dude"...

One was even kind enough to buy me a beer at the 19th hole...

AmenRa said...

Looks like the market is telling BB "print or else". Funny how they react when BB goes against their wishes.

b22 said...

@AAIP,

sounds good, any info you can provide I'm interested in. Its fairly difficult to find a ton of insight on the topic because as that guy said, insiders are deathly afraid to talk about it. He mentioned in there that large media outlets admitted to him behind closed doors that no matter what he said and no matter how HFT's were truly working/operating, they would not print a positive HFT article.

Anonymous said...

McB,

on "HFT"

as Dude was laying down, paraphrasing: ~"it's complicated, there are many (Many) moving parts.."

but, "HFT" itself is the 'thin-edge' of the Wedge..

without it, and, closely, associated 'Activities'(i.e. 'Quote Stuffing'), many of the, current Crop of, 'Algo-games' couldn't happen..

and, obviously, "HFT" depends, highly, on 'co-location'..

so, really, 'co-location' (rented Space Next to the 'Exchange Servers' for the, explicit, purpose of "HFT" 'activities', and their ilk, should be 'done away with'..

is the 'Quick Take'..

if you have other Q:s, feel free..

AAIP

Andy T said...

I'm there for the Fiat Currency on the Tiger Woods bet. I have plenty of silver, but don't feel like shipping any more out.

Your bro already paid me the $25.

b22 said...

AAIP,

personaly I think HFT's need to stay, they are actually performing critical functions for the market at certain times

unfortunately the general narrative being advanced by government, the media, and lots of internet hack shops like Zero Hedge make it all out to be a "HFT rules the world" story

its not even anywhere near true, they are such a tiny portion of the street, the total profits aren't even a 1/10th of the size of the PIMCO Total Return Fund.

Anonymous said...

McB,

personally, I'm not, deeply, 'anti-HFT', though, if you want Today's versions of 'Algo-Trading'..."HFT" is necessary..

AAIP

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