Morning Corner 5.5.11

30 Yr Bond (weekly info)
WEEKLY REVERSAL new high 122.500
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 122.500
rev= 118.281; mid= 120.391

Well well well. Who is doing all of the buying of 30 year bonds? I'll assume we all have a pretty good idea. It isn't China or Japan. They have their own problems to deal with. Plus China prefers commodities right now. The Primary Dealers? Not really as the bonds that they buy just stop by for a visit. The bonds continue their journey to the Fed at the nearest POMO. The pension funds? Not if they want to make the 8% they advertise.



ATHEN (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 1431.33
rev= 1661.68; mid= 1546.51


The Greece stock exchange is about to take out its low from the beginning of the year. In so many words all is not well. You can't break free from gravity near an event horizon. Greece has lost all engines and is floating helplessly towards that horizon. Restructuring may keep Greece out of the black hole but unable to escape the event horizon. If they drift off course even a little...

AT's mid Afternoon "Glimpse" at Silver:





77 comments:

Anonymous said...

106.52 -2.72 (-2.50%)
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_CL.M11.E

'Texas Tea' down from ~115 ..

358.63 -6.42 (-1.79%)
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_CR

CRB down from ~370+ ..

73.089 +0.058 (+0.07%)
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

'Paperback' building a Base? (lookin' like it..)

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CURRENCIES&p=d1

CAD/AUD/NZD to the Abbotoir..

AAIP

AmenRa said...

USDJPY 79.78 ruh roh
http://www.finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY

AmenRa said...

Holy crap Initial Claims 474k

ben22 said...

employers figure those peeps could just trade silver Ra, that, or it was the weather, no other explanation given the recovery we are in.

cv said...

Great chart here...

http://www.goldcore.com/images/mu/goldcore_bloomberg_chart1_05-05-11.PNG

---

FWIW

Two of the criteria that I'd mentioned about a month or so ago have already been me (well - at least within 'cents' of having been met)

- Silver $50
- EUR $1.50

My 'other' criteria was that bucky hit a 72 or even 70 (which has not been reached yet)

but I'll go ahead and say, yes... I'd say that the dollar could begin to see a rally soon here...

I'd still be happier to see that 71-ish print first, and even better, a "6" handle...

But that might just be too hard for some to bear...

I'm not going to bother to put any price target on the useless S&P, but for 's***'s & grins, I'd suppose 1225 would seem a good place to start...

Might not even happen... I'm frankly not much interested in that anymore...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Small employers here are making a choice between higher fixed costs such as enough gas and supplies versus hiring.

Many of the people I talk with in the mine have stories of relatives recently let go...

cv said...

or it was the weather

Ha!

They'd been blaming the weather (snow) all winter long for this and that...

Then a couple of days ago, a chocolate manufacturer out of England had some poor sales and blamed...

wait for it... wait for it...

The WARM WEATHER!

Bruce in Tennessee said...

10 year down to 3.17. Amazing. And we have trillions more debt to service.

No, I don't think this ends in hyperinflation...

Andy T said...

Nice little overnight move....

WTI seems to have snapped out of the rising wedge we discussed yday. If the wedge began at 83.50, it should drop back to 83.50 in the next few weeks.

Andy T said...

" I still see 1367-1380 as providing resistance for this week as the "inverted Head and Shoulder" crowd gets tested out a bit this week." (Last Sunday Night)

Begin that "test" now....

Andy T said...

I like the idea of buying a little bit of Silver right now (37.48 on the July silver futures). Can see some suport at 36.60....

Warning: This would be a very short term trade. Just seems a little overdone.....

mcHAPPY said...

"" I still see 1367-1380 as providing resistance for this week as the "inverted Head and Shoulder" crowd gets tested out a bit this week." (Last Sunday Night)

Begin that "test" now...."

Maximum pain for the most participants would be the longs calling it quits here - especially the recently long - and the shorts piling on only to get stopped yet again with one more test of the resistence Andy has discussed.

cv said...

Warning: This would be a very short term trade. Just seems a little overdone

I'd agree in theory to that...

But I'd guess a bounce might just take it just north of $40...

I think AMPEX is still offering $45 for silver eagles... And still physical buyers aren't coughing it up (@ $9 over paper spot)...

Hardly makes much of a case for going back to $21... (especially with 474k initial claims numbers getting tossed around)...

cv said...

It took 5 months for the 'pennant' (which was the 2008 silver high in March '08) to play out and get resolved (to the downside - because of the Lehman liquidity squeeze)...

And that was BEFORE anybody had ever heard anything about "QE"...

AmenRa said...

ben22

Employers realized that even if they let people go they still can have high production numbers. Everyone works a little harder to take up the slack. Then the business realizes that they don't have to hire anyone back because their numbers are even better. Go figure.

AmenRa said...

Also since initial claims get revised higher each week, what's the over/under for a 500k revision?

cv said...

@Amen

Employers realized that even if they let people go they still can have high production numbers. Everyone works a little harder to take up the slack. Then the business realizes that they don't have to hire anyone back because their numbers are even better. Go figure

---

Gee... Why can't state & federal governments take that approach?

cv said...

News from THE TURD...

"I've spent the night pouring over charts.
I've dried out 3 sharpies and broken two rulers.
My printer has blown through its warranty and is out of toner.
I'm existing on nothing coffee, Skittles, No-doze, amphetamines and meth.
And I've finally found guaranteed support for silver!

The charts clearly show that in the area between $0.00 and $1.00, silver looks great! I pulled up some 6,132,000-hour charts and found that silver has never been valued less than dust or navel lint. It has always retained value! So get ready with your orders to buy in the area around 50 cents. IF that area is breached, look to buy some more around $0.20. Use a tight stop at -$0.10, though. IF silver blows through there...

Andy T said...

cv!

Don't you know that it's the government that's helping keep the American Middle Class intact! Those are "Good" govt jobs that pay a "real living" wage.

Bwahahahaahahaha

Andy T said...

It's ok to catch a falling knife...

...as long as you catch it by the handle.

Pretty scary move on that one...i think it's almost unprecedented.

AmenRa said...

Funny that a possible bad NFP comes on the anniversary of Flash Crash...

CV said...

Those are "Good" govt jobs that pay a "real living" wage

---

Those are "handy" govt jobs that guarantee a "real reciprocating vote" (for your party)...

There... fixed it!

Jennifer said...

AR -- I would think that the squid and friends would do their very best to engineer a rally on the flash crash anniversary.

Andy T said...

ok. loaded up on the Silver now for a day trade...under water the last 1/2 hour....i have stop on the July futures at 36.45

CV said...

I'm going to link up a WEEKLY chart on SLV going back 10 years...

Based on fib ratios, gann angles, & what have you... If you ask me, silver has been acting fairly normal...

I'd guess that if you eliminate all the DAILY noise... That $33 area is the most logical area of support... (which is the corresponding initial retracement from the 2008 highs vs. the BREAK of those highs to a 261.8% extension of that move)...

There's also CHANNEL support there...

But don't listen to me... I just like picking horses & NFL games...

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-CWwP8u1qBKs/TcK4mbirRJI/AAAAAAAADGE/Gr3e2Co1sGg/s1600/slv_weekly.JPG

AmenRa said...

Andy T

Previous high of 36.76 taken out. Next support is the high before that of 31.29. The SMA(55) provided no kind of support. Went through that price like a hot knife through butter. It's already taken out five of the previous weekly high closes.

Andy T said...

that was an awesome little foray into trying to buy Silver....

Bwwhahhahaah

There's a bounce coming...but will wait for it to show a "pulse" first.

Andy T said...

Crude's looking pretty solid....

CV said...

@Andy T

Wait for those FIB levels on the chart I linked...

Then go out and buy PHYSICAL at those levels (assuming the dealers are still selling close to spot)... May have to buy junk or 100 oz bars...

Average down to $26 if you have to...

You'll sleep as sound as a baby :-)

Andy T said...

Think we've seen our seasonal peak in Gasoline/Crude oil...traditionally peaks in Apr-May. This is pretty emphatic.

CV said...

@Andy

There's that big assed GAP on crude back in February...

I sure hope that hits... I might have to buy a gas station & store it underground - lol...

I think Tyler Durden hit the nail on the head with this simple comment here...

"The liquidation wave has arrived, as the entire commodities complex, with an emphasis on silver and crude, continues to feel the wrath of a bipolar market which from inflation has suddenly realized that the underlying deflation needs to exhibit itself before the US Central Bank has a justification for more monetization"...

Pretty much SUMS UP my feelings on the matter...

JBTFD... but maybe not yet...

AmenRa said...

Danger Will Robinson! Danger!

CV said...

IMO... Crude is likely to be the "political football" of choice for Obama next year...

It goes something like this...

We get this big commodity WIPEOUT that we're seeing now (which was predictable)...

That'll lead to several months of PENNANTS (read: sideways) on many of the longer term commodity charts (emphasis on LONG TERM charts)...

Dollar gets a bounce (but not much)...

Fed waits until the last possible minute to come out with QE3 announcement...

Commodities finally bottom and catch a bid again...

By the time the election season rolls into town, gasoline prices will be back up again to $4... Obama will blame it on those EVIL SPECULATORS, and warn that all the GOP is in the pockets of big oil...

He's here to save the day... 4 more years...

AmenRa said...

Gold was holding 1500. Where did the 20 handle drop come from?

CV said...

"Where did the 20 handle drop come from?"

Just a guess, but a likely candidate would be to see if Denise Garterman put a BUY rating on it...

CV said...

I wonder when the "short selling" ban on silver is going to kick in???

ROR

CV said...

If JPM were down 25% in 3 days they'd probably close the exchanges...

wunsacon said...

>> If JPM were down 25% in 3 days they'd probably close the exchanges...

But, we can dream about it! Can't we?? ;-)

(Just here to post-and-run. Have to head to the salt mine.)

Good luck trading, folks.

AmenRa said...

What's the deal with the move higher the last 35 minutes? Shorts taking profits?

*SPX could only close above the 76.4% retrace for one day.*

I'm attributing the move higher to the fact that we were quickly approaching the 100% move off the low of 666.79 at 1333.56.

Anonymous said...

Andy's idea about fib retracement extrapolation adds weight to the idea that gold just completed a wave down. Drop an overlay on the futures and see. Now it's B or 2 up.

AmenRa said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AmenRa said...

who would want to buy 10yr bonds with these yields? Thinking about next weeks auction.

Next weeks total offering 128B. Consists of 29B (3 mth), 27B (6 mth), 32B (3yr), 24B (10yr), 16B (30yr).

As of 5/3/11 Total Public Debt Subject To Limit is 14,280,140,000,000 and Statutory Debt limit is 14,294,000,000,000. That leaves just under 14,000,000,000 before breach.

AmenRa said...

Now they're out to prove Gross wrong: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-us-budget-cuts-may-mean-for-markets-2011-05-05

US budget cuts would move investors from equities into bonds.

Thor said...

What part of "banned for life" do you not understand Einstein? You are not welcome on our blog, and at this point, we don't give a shit how polite your comments are. Just leave us alone Andy. No one cares.

@Mannwich. What would be the alternative strategy to bring back the US Dollars overseas that will likely never come back. The reserves are building up overseas due to a difference in tax rates. It seems like a problem that will continue until it's addressed. We can't FORCE other countries to raise their taxes.

By Andy T on Manny Thorsday: Would a Temporary "Corporate Tax ... at 1:33 PM
Delete | Not Spam

CV said...

@Amen Ra

Would those "US budget cuts" be anything similar to the Greece & Portugal "budget cuts" from last year???

ror

CV said...

Hey peeps...

I just started a new blog...

http://jbtfd.blogspot.com/

But don't bother trying to post anything on it because I've already decided that EVERYONE IS BANNED FOR LIFE!

ror

ben22 said...

Ra:

re: picking up the slack

Indeed the Fed tracks average water cooler break time, it is down significantly.

CV,

Minor point of contention, I do know the pattern you are talking about on silver but it was not a pennant, pennants last no more than a few weeks, if it took five months to complete it's something else. Also, a close examination of the charts and one cannot claim that this recent move to $50 (yeah, I'll give you the 50 handle) was the same as the move that preceded it.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Au down 33 bucks/ounce today. That is simply amazing, and it shows how much of the recent moves were by people jumping on the train.

...These times of forced markets and control of interest rates show really amazing results.

ben22 said...

Also, I just want to point out that yesterday Forehead Shapiro announced that there is no way for the SEC to stop another flash crash, that it could happen again at any moment.

So, you know, now it's a real threat.....

pffft.

CV said...

@ben

That's OK (about nomenclature)... I have 'loose' descriptions on things that AMEN RA corrects me on all the time...

On that chart that I linked up (10:54)... It just seems that to me, certain things basically line up visually (& fit pretty well with fibo extensions)...

That pattern has worked out well for me in beginning to get vocally bullish about silver at the onset of qe2 last August (when the $21 level was taken out), and on through...

I'm not worried about the day trades (because I'm only interested in accumulating physical)...

Right now, I'd still say that chart might have some pretty good levels to go in and consider accumulating more physical when the time is right...

FOR ME, the amounts would have to be near the LOWER numbers (because I already have enough ounces to justify cash-PM ratios) at the higher levels...

Someone with ZERO physical PM exposure may have to bite the bullet and start averaging in at a slightly higher level though...

That is, unless you think all PM's are going to zero and the only thing worth holding in the world are FRN's...

I'm not in that camp anymore (until Ron Paul gets elected POTUS - which we all know isn't going to happen - because he's not very adept at picking NCAA brackets, photoshopping birth certificates, or taking bodies out of cold storage, anointing them in scented oils and dumping them carefully into the Indian Ocean after forgetting to videotape the episode because they must have ran out of tape after the Elian Gonzalez raid)...

CV said...

Au down 33 bucks/ounce today. That is simply amazing, and it shows how much of the recent moves were by people jumping on the train

or... It's simply an example of how easy it can be at times to manipulate PAPER MARKETS in these things...

PAPER & PHYSICAL are different things...

You're going to find that out, I'm not sure exactly when, but to give myself some margin on it, I'll say, the next 12-18 months...

Watch what happens to silver backwardation if the spot prices creeps down to a "20's" handle...

Hell... Even here at $36... AMPEX still has a standing offer to BUY (BUY, I said) silver Eagles for $45...

So that's $9 over spot...

This paper vs. physical scam is going to get exposed in fairly due time...

CV said...

...and if it seems like my (2:08) & (2:13) posts don't jive, you would be interpreting it incorrectly...

(2;08) I'm talking about a PAPER SPOT PRICE (and using 'charting' to describe it)...

(2:13) I'm saying paper spot doesn't mean s*** and PHYSICAL is all that matters (so basically - what's the purpose for putting up a PAPER SPOT chart)???

---

I'm saying that you can still use the PAPER SPOT as a technical guideline... But that you should only be using it in the context of where the PHYSICAL 'stand for delivery' market applies to it at those junctures...

& I'd NEVER trade the paper... Only ACCUMULATE physical on the dips...

10 years from now you'll be happy (same way you'd have been happy buying GOLD 10 years ago)...

AmenRa said...

WTI low 99.66


DAMN that was a vicious move.

CV said...

"DAMN that was a vicious move"

That's because all those EVIL SPECULATORS are scared Obama is going to come "kick their ass"...

OR

Can it be that Obama's "EVIL SPECULATOR" comments were basically the same as the "PROFITS TO EARNINGS" speech in march '09???... (basically spoon fed to him off the teleprompter by Lloyd & Jamie who, in that moment, had successfully lined up on the short side of the trade)...

OR

It's just a bunch of TD Ameritrade "pattern recognition software" firing off the trade in 20 share blocks...

What sounds more logical to you?

Lee Harvey Oswald (lone gunman)?

CV said...

But the GOOD NEWS is that now that crude is back on its way to $10 a barrel because we're literally swimming in the stuff...

BRUCE - You can trade in that Prius for a Hummer

&

We can cancel the need for all those "green jobs" (now that oil will be cheaper than solar & wind)...

Matthew said...

Gilts... The most overpriced securities in fixed income? Maybe.

Andy T said...

CME announcing wider trading limits on all energy products....200% of normal limits...because of too many margin calls.

No shit.

CV said...

@Andy

The Saudi's & the University of Texas must be s***ing bricks this week...

Literally :-)

CV said...

Oh but the R2K is green...

So you have that going for you...

CV said...

Anyway...

I guess that's what the Bernank meant he talked about 'TRANSITORY' inflation...

He's so smart! I hear he has a PHD!

When we get down to Prechters DOW 400, do you suppose the term 'TRANSITORY DEFLATION' will come into vogue???

Or will it just come out on the eve of JPM covering up all their short positions on the CME???

CV said...

...and I'm STILL going to call him a liar, because he said he could FIX things in 15 minutes...

It's taken 4 days thus far...

Andy T said...

Raising cash in the equities ring now that commodities are closed....

"Ring, ring, this is the margin clerk."

Anonymous said...

~98.69

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CL

Texas Tea getting 'watered down'..

AAIP

Andy T said...

Crude Oil Water Fall on display....

Mel said...

It's pointless commenting on this:

Regulators Must Avoid ‘Burdensome’ Rules: Bernanke

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the government must avoid imposing burdensome rules on financial companies as it carries out the biggest regulatory overhaul in seven decades.

“No one’s interests are served by the imposition of ineffective or burdensome rules that lead to excessive increases in costs or unnecessary restrictions in the supply of credit,” Bernanke said today in a speech in Chicago. “Regulators must aim to avoid stifling reasonable risk-taking and innovation in financial markets, as these factors play an important role in fostering broader productivity gains, economic growth, and job creation.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-05/bernanke-says-regulators-must-avoid-rules-that-are-burdensome-to-banks.html

Leftback said...

Did you ever see anything like this in your life?

Breaking even is the new Killing It. Setting a few stops on my divvys, I don't think we waterfall tomorrow but I for one do not want to test that hypothesis. It's likely there will be some forced liquidations....

Andy T said...

@LB

Tis a wild one. Though, I think there's a decent chance that we get a "relief" rally into the weekend. There was a large transfer of wealth today in the commodity circles....

Scary moves all around though. The seasonal peak appears to be in on oil.

Bucky the Talking Currency said...

Ding a ling a ling...
Wow. What a day.

Lord Blankfiend said...

There was a large transfer of wealth today in the commodity circles....

Indeed there was....

Leftback said...

Max pain tomorrow would be a STRONG jobs number, then the Treasury longs would also get hosed, DXY would rally again and commodity longs would be hauled out from behind the woodshed and nailed to a cross....

AmenRa said...

...just remember that it is a log chart when you look at WTI later (O-O)

Leftback said...

Ra

That was a prescient ruh-roh this morning.
Even the Precious was down today..

Colonel Kurtz said...

"The Horror, The Horror...."

AmenRa said...

USDJPY has closed lower than 3/16/11 which was the day before it plunged...

Leftback said...

My guess is all Hell breaks loose tomorrow once traders figure out what to do with busted carry trades and then we will have a concerted FX intervention over the weekend, starring the BoJ.

I am not very bearish equities with USTs at these yields.

But I am very very cautious in the short term.... this type of dislocation has the potential to cause ripple effects for a few days or weeks.

666 said...

But what's troubling you
Is the nature of my game....

Pleased to meet you
Hope you guessed my name....

Bucky said...

Ahem...

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