Morning Audibles 1.11.11

"1.11.11"... (today's date)... That's 5 ACES Jack!

CV has been doing some investigative reporting, and it's come to the forefront that the "shooter" in Arizona could be a case of mistaken identity...


See??? It wasn't Sarah Palin after all (giving "Manchurian Candidate" code tips for people to go on shooting sprees)... Instead, what "set off" this poor fellow was having to do one too many interviews with this dude (on this cable business channel)...


Oh... Sorry... That was a fuzzy resemblance... Here's a better foto of the interviewer...


But what can I say? There are A LOT of "yo-yo" on TV (that's why I mainly watch sports)... Of course there are some as well, who like to calmly and rationally get to the MIDDLE of every situation, knowing that's where wisdon & reason lie...


And there are others, who take the time to sit down and listen to your viewpoint on the matter...


Then there are others, who are always mindful of the "words" they are using, and would never say anything potentially nasty of inciteful...


CV doesn't actually give a flying F*** about any of these people... This is SURVIVOR CAPITAL... Here, all I need to know is that there are a bunch of weirdos everywhere (of all political & social ranks)... The way we are going... Things in this country are going to end up like this someday...


(and I'm not interested in playing Kevin Bacon in this scenario)...

Even though Kevin Bacon is my HERO...


Hell... For all I know... Sarah Palin is RELATED (by six degrees of separation) to GIFFORDS... Just like Obama is related to Brad Pitt (does that link Obama to Tyler Durden as well)? CV might be related to Pelosi (and that would explain my sometimes "ODD" behavior)... Kevin Bacon himself taught me all this...


People, we're all in this race together, and WE'RE ALL going to make it to the finish line together, or WE'RE ALL going to perish in the process... Once again (a thing that is permissable on this blog - but not elsewhere)... IT'S YOUR CHOICE...



199 comments:

CV said...

@Andy T

I'm not going to disagree with you about the Oregon playcalling, but I don't that was the issue "per se" (IOW - there was something, in my mind, behind that)...

oregon was clearly trying to play "INSIDE OUTSIDE"...

Run a play straight up the middle (which is a really OLD SCHOOL tactic in football - if the other team has a guy like FAIRLEY in the middle, you run straight at him)... Kind of like Muhammad Ali with the "rope a dope" [getting George Foreman punched out])...

There were two reasons the strategy failed to work...

1. Thomas kept "sailing" the sideline passes (he got one tipped and picked off at the beginning of the game - and two more were high and almost picked off)...

2. Oregon kept catching lucky breaks to give their defense a breather at crucial times...

I was SO pissed off that the 1st quarter ended with Oregon 3rd & 1 at the 2 yard line... Auburn's defense was exhausted and I think Oregon would have easily scored on the next play... But FUCKING TV (turns a "timeout" for anything into 5 minutes of commercials [on a nationally televised game])... Auburn got their breather, stopped the next play, and Oregon settles for 3 instead of 7...

Next... When Oregon stopped Auburn on the goal line, the first play they ran was an inside toss that gained 9 yards... It was flagged for a penalty (which set up the safety on the next play)... NO FLAG there, and the whole game changes... It was 11-7... next thing you know it's 11-9... Next thing you know, you're kicking off after the safety and the other team gets it going for a TD and you're down 16-11 at half time...

Momentum...

Lastly... In the 2nd half... Fucking Auburn used the "Cal" strategy... Every fucking 3rd down (when they needed a personnel change, some player on Auburn's defense was miraculously getting injured...) Players rest, substitution package comes in, stopped on downs...

I still think Oregon could have won, but they would have needed to overcome all those little nuances...

Now I'm looking to see if, in 3 years, they find that Cam Newton WAS in fact involved in "pay for play"... Not that I have anything against "him"... But it's what THE NCAA deserves...

They're worse than politicians & bankers...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/from-manager-to-janitor-2011-01-10/0EF53640-E67D-4BD1-BB69-488C16377E87#!0EF53640-E67D-4BD1-BB69-488C16377E87

From Manager to Janitor

...The present and possibly the future...

CV said...

Could the U.S. central bank go broke?

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE7096FE20110111

"It can literally conjure up money at will, and arguably did exactly that when it bought about $2 trillion of mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasuries to push down borrowing costs and boost the economy.

The Fed's unorthodox steps helped it generate record profits in 2010, allowing it to send $78.4 billion to the U.S. Treasury Department


So - it cost $2 trillion to "make" $78.4 billion... How much is it going to cost to "make back" that additional $1.92 trillion???

"Asked about the issue of potential losses during congressional testimony on Friday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested the risks were minimal. If liabilities on the Fed's balance sheet were to exceed its assets, it would only be so because of rising interest rates in the context of a thriving economy, he suggested."

So let me get this straight... BASICALLY, if the economy improves, then you guys are F***ed... Hmmm... I'll plan accordingly...

CV said...

@BinT (8:21)

"From Manager to Janitor"

There's still hope... He could star in a new wildlife documentary TV show...

"The Undersea World of Jacques Custodian"

call me ahab said...

BinT-

no doubt a 180 on the (supposed) American Dream-

if you think about it- it makes one wonder why they don't milk the SNAP and UE benefits for as as long as possible (the New American Dream?)

Anonymous said...

"It can literally conjure up money at will, and arguably did exactly that when it bought about $2 trillion of mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasuries to push down borrowing costs and boost the economy..."
+ and/or vs.

""Asked about the issue of potential losses during congressional testimony on Friday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested the risks were minimal. If liabilities on the Fed's balance sheet were to exceed its assets..."

anyone else see the Joke there?
~~

cv--,

I don't mind the Quackers pick, thought it was a good vantage point, from which to watch the Game..

but, I think AT has it, mostly, correct--Their 'play calling' seemed pretty suspect/lame..

the 'Over' turned out to be a good Fade..

also, was that 'Crowd' 90/10 Auburn fan?

AAIP

Jennifer said...

Some harsh China comments here:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/245838-ian-gordon-bundle-up-for-bitter-kondratieff-winter

Jennifer said...

I hate it when we miss the school bus.

CV said...

@Jennifer

See? If you had dogs, you could "mush" your way to school...

Anonymous said...

And I thought the SPX would be @ $1,111.11 by this time this year!

JBTFD! into 1/11/12

CV said...

Ht-ZH

"For all cowards who did not put their life savings in the Banlgadesh stock market after yesterday's record plunge and subsequent halt, and obviously have no clue how modern markets work, we have one acronym for you: BTFD. To everyone else, who made 15% in one day and can now close the books for 2011, congratulations. A day after Brian Sack was rumored to be seen tweaking the Bangladesh stock exchange's 3 16 MHz 286 High Frequency Trading machines, which can execute a whopping 0.5 transactions per second, and lifting all 2 offers in Level 2 when put in Designated Market Maker mode, the Bangladesh stock exchange is surging, and 1,000% margin debt-laden speculator protesters who were rioting as recently as 24 hours ago, are basking in their newly rediscovered wealth effect..."

karen said...

morning! and not a good one. JJC made a big leap this morning.. all the dow % gainers are up just over 1%.. biggest % loser is AA.. no fireworks there..

someone make it roll over.. i have to leave for the airport in 3 hours : )

CV said...

"JJC made a big leap this morning"

Nickles bitchez!

Jennifer said...

http://singerprofitcharts.blogspot.com/2011/01/jjc-copper-etn-weekly.html

Speaking of JJC -- could someone tell me what the diagonal trend line things in this chart are? Are they fib fans? If so, what exactly is a fib fan? If not, then what? Thanks -- hanging my ignorant head in shame.

Anonymous said...

Jennifer,

True Ignorance, only, Lies in Not Seeking..

AAIP

Jennifer said...

Thanks, Mark. Happy not to mush -- still prefer careening around the slippery neighborhood in the pre-dawn chasing the school bus to mushing.

CV said...

it also lies in NOT exchanging your $2 FRN's for rolls of 1946-? nickles (at face value)... every chance you get...

:-)

Jennifer said...

On the bright side...I must confess, I bought the dip.

Jennifer said...

And, to pre-empt CV, I googled fib fans.

karen said...

it's a nice chart! thanks..

CV said...

Delhi Police bust coin melting gang

http://www.sify.com/news/delhi-police-bust-coin-melting-gang-news-national-lbhvumbihhi.html

Those Indian cops have no sense of humor!

karen said...

jenn.. hope you sold the rip.. i still think it is rollover time.. another dip buying op.

karen said...

Talbots is the % Loser in the NYSE today.. now that is a company that I think should be out of business.

karen said...

AMD pummeled as well.

karen said...

GLD is the cat and the bugs are the mouse. The cat has already mauled the mouse, but it isn't dead and eaten yet.

anyone watch my meditating cat video last night??

CV said...

Here's CV's chart...

new chart in thread

CV said...

@karen

"anyone watch my meditating cat video last night"

No - I was busy watching the Auburn CATS maul the Ducks...

Anonymous said...

karen,

re: Talbot's

"I kno, right?" :)

seriously, no kidding, talk about (another) "Label" that has been, with exceptional Vigor, "Whored out."
~~
as an aside, 'Retailers', in general, have not had the 'Merriest of X-Mas Seasons'..

ibid.

CV said...

@Anon

"'Retailers', in general, have not had the 'Merriest of X-Mas Seasons'"

Yeah but... That's on account of [the snow], [the heatwave], [insert EXCUSE here]...

Really... It's probably just due to the 'delayed' aspects of the WEALTH EFFECT...

My money is tied up with Wangers and Ritzy-Ditzy's in "Apple Stock"... As soon as it hits $500, I'll sell and buy an I-Pad...

Jennifer said...

The impending death of Talbots is very sad for me. I was a huge fan for years, and they still are an easy place to go to for gifts for my mom, aunts, and assorted other female relatives. I miss the old Talbots. (Now I've revealed myself to be a true preppy.)

karen said...

thanks for the spy view, CV.. lower highs in the SPX, but barely pennies difference.. will it get to 1279-1280.. i mean, what the heck! so close day after day.. and looking at the $wlsh.. you'd think the economy was running full steam ahead..

ben22 said...

1,300 is still out there too, couple gaps up and we are there

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

AA cheerfully trading at P/E = 100. An improvement on infinity, I suppose. Materials, miners, industrials, energy, tech (exports) will all be hit by a rising dollar environment. The domestic divvys (REITs, pharma, telecoms and utilities) will be ok. This equity rotation will be the play of 2011.

Watching yields and wondering, looking at TNX chart from Ra last night, do we tag the declining resistance line or do we go up through that and make a double top at 3.60 area or above?

Personally I like the latter scenario, gives us a close to 300 bp slope on 2s10s and we already have a 110 bps slope on 10s30s, so then it is fill yer boots with long bonds. We like the idea of lightening up on HY here and moving out of risk a little bit in credit. Spreads have tightened a lot on THE ECONOMY, but we all now that is a propaganda construct. Small biz owners know we are in the new normal.

karen said...

FXA fell out of bed this morning! below the 50ema now.

Anonymous said...

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TLB

brutal chart..

CV said...

If you look at the last couple of "topping" waves (on SPX)... They all kind of average out to about 13 day affairs... From peak, to rapid dip, to RETRY to final rollover...

The 3 peaks (Jan '10, April '10, Aug '10) all sort of had that characteristic...

I kind of toss out the November peak because that had the "elections" "QE2 announcement" nonsense attached to it...

Anonymous said...

HINGHAM, Mass. (AP) -- The Talbots Inc. on Tuesday lowered its guidance for the fourth quarter and fiscal year after a weak holiday season.

The guidance, coming after disappointing outlook a month ago, sent shares down 24 percent in pre-market trading to $5.70.

The cut is the latest sign that Talbots' plan to regain customers it lost during the recession -- by revamping merchandise and investing in advertising -- is failing to take hold. Talbots and other "missy" retailers -- clothing sellers that target women around their 40s -- were among the hardest hit during the recession. In an effort to improve results, Talbots last year pulled off a complex deal that let it reduce its debt and buy out its largest shareholder, Japanese retail company Aeon (U.S.A.) Inc., which held a 54 percent stake. The company, based in Hingham, Mass., also invested in a splashy advertising campaign that featured model Linda Evangelista.

But Talbots said that while it had "solid" sales during the busy shopping weekend after Thanksgiving, sales deteriorated in the last two weeks of December into January, despite aggressive markdowns by the retailer.

Talbots blamed weaker than expected customer response to new merchandise, high levels of markdowns in the sector and weather.

Revenue in the fourth-quarter is down 7 percent compared to a year ago, Talbots said.

The company now expects an adjusted loss for the quarter of 15 cents to 19 cents per share versus prior guidance for earnings of 5 cents per share to a loss of 3 cents per share. The latest projection is much worse than the loss of 2 cents per share analysts expect.

For the year, Talbots now expects earnings of 56 cents to 60 cents per share versus prior guidance of 70 cents to 78 cents per share, excluding one-time items. Analysts expect earnings of 73 cents per share.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Talbots-cuts-outlook-again-apf-3335028843.html?x=0&.v=6

sounds like, truly, innovative MGMT..

ibid.

karen said...

not that it matters but... Job Openings in U.S. Decrease for Third Time in Four Months http://bit.ly/fLcXaW

Anonymous said...

TLB is really a dog. I can only assume it is where it is b/c of ETF participation, i.e. it was dragged up by other retailers and the Gunning of The Spooz. There are stocks like this all over this market.

CV said...

What's interesting... also... is that is you STRAIGHT LINE RULER the Jan '10 high to the most recent JAN '11 high... DAILY

It passes right thru the 5/4 candle (which, as it turns out, was almost a precursor to "Waddell & Reed's fatfinger")...

Yeah, that's what it was... Those silly "fat finger" boys at W&R...

I think that shooter in AZ was all a mistake... He was just playing around with his guns and he accidentally FAT FINGERED the trigger...

I-Man said...

The mini correction ended yesterday at 9:30am est...

The more I look at the daily charts, the more I see higher prices.

Looking at time exclusively, could easily run into late march.

Not trying to piss in anyones cheerios, just calling it like I sees it.

US equities are out for some War Eagle of their own... for, "whatever", reason(s)...

The reasons dont seem to matter much before the fact...

CV said...

Linda Evangelista is still a megababe...

Talbots or no!

Linda Evangelista said...

@CV (10:38)

I kno right? :-)

http://elfashionista.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/picture-76.png

CV said...

Linda Evangelista's father worked for "Government Motors"

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Wonder if that was a TEPPER TOP in DF at $10.10 ?

Actually we think it is a JBTFD stock. TATCP.
Trade around the core position.

The bond market is following the script. TYX 4.50%

karen said...

I-Man.. LOL at your all comment.. thanks, too. : )

Anonymous said...

CRB Index
329.32
+2.47 +0.69%
US Dollar
81.071
+0.190 +0.24%

re: CRB , ~330 is not sub-~320..

ibid.

karen said...

TBT looks to be making a rev h&s on the daily.. another week to run on the right shoulder.. then a lift off or fail..

gdx much stronger than gld today.. we will see how that plays out.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

T, VZ, FTR, WIN, all telecoms being sold again today. Interested in some of these but not jumping in just yet. The market feels very soft.

I-Man said...

I-Man got nothing but love for ALL yall...

:)

I-Man said...

Unless you're on the other side of my YM trade, and in that case, I hate ya.

Anonymous said...

K.,

We see TBT capped at 40. It would only lift off on a real job recovery, you know, on THE ECONOMY. Rates at the long end will be capped around 5% at the absolute extreme or it is curtains for MBS, housing, banks.

Armageddon PART DEUX.

karen said...

TBT.. yeah, maybe 40.56 (last high).. but P&F does have a 53 target on it price and time wise.

$tnx p&f target is 58! and yes, i do realize the consequences of that! no worries, tho.. the fed is in control.

Matthew said...

The Japanese are going to buy 20 percent of the bailout bonds for Ireland. Good luck with those.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

The COMPRESSOR is really on today, big time.
HYG up, TLT down.

Today might be a good day to take some off in HY.
Rate risk might lower all fixed income boats tomorrow.

karen said...

yes, i was looking at HYG:LQD.. jumped out of bed with a big leap into a risk on day..

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Matthew

Wonder if that's why the JPY is down so much today? Japanese investor (banks) diversification out of JGBs is beginning. Once this gets going it will mark the end of the two decades of Japanese deflation.

Short the yen and get long the EWJ on the next global equity correction is the view here. I won't go there yet b/c of the imminent Chinese tightening. It is out there.

karen said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-official-600B-bond-apf-171873597.html

Plosser said the Fed will probably have to start boosting interest rates, now at a record low near zero, before the unemployment rate has dropped to an "acceptable level." The Fed has held its key interest rates at a record low since December 2008 to help prop up the economy.

karen said...

"A member of the Federal Reserve's policymaking committee suggested Tuesday that the Fed may need to scale back its $600 billion Treasury bond-buying program if the economy grows more quickly than expected.

But Charles Plosser, who becomes a voting member this year, is unlikely to sway the other members, based on speeches and minutes from the Fed's last meeting."

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/its-confirmed-wikileaks-is-targeting-bank-of-america-2011-1

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Once this gets going it will mark the end of the two decades of Japanese deflation.*

* Guess who gets to play the role of Japan for the next decade. That's right, class. You are a smart bunch....

Plosser, in addition to the guy from St Louis, is the designated hawkish misdirection voice when they want rates a little higher to spur risk-on trades. The doves return to the air waves when things get a little soggy in the economy or when they have a really weak Tsy auction.

Think like the weasels.

CV said...

After Shoving Foot Down Throat, Krugman Now Gives His Few Remaining Readers Comment Etiquette Tips

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/after-shoving-foot-down-throat-krugman-now-gives-his-few-remaining-readers-comment-etiquette

---

It's now been confirmed... "Mannwich", "Thor", & "dss", are... in fact... just pseudonyms for Nobel Laureate Economist (Paul Krugman)...

ben22 said...

it's called a triangle

karen said...

i think ewj is at a longer term resistance point today.. it has had an amazing run over the last 4.5 months..

CV said...

"It is one thing for Krugman [et al] to be wrong about everything. He merely provides an easy target for those who actually understand that his policy solutions have crossed the imbecile twilight zone. However, when he engages in pointless hate-filled and fact-free rhetoric, it may be time for the NYT, in its endless pursuit of objective, impartial content of course, to consider severing ties with the man who is now a mockery to all but himself."

CV said...

Comment of the day (on that thread...

"Paul's Fame Clock, just clicked on 00:14:59.99. (HH:MM:SS:TH)"

wunsacon said...

I scrolled down. Saw the first photo. Scrolled down and saw the second. Scrolled down. Beaker! Nice setup, CV.

ben22 said...

its funny that the reaction to the Bespoke data that's floating around showing that 94% of the S&P's gains last year came on the first day of the month and how some people are using this as "proof" that the market must be rigged.

Must be their first year in markets

Oddly on page 62 of my 2008 Stock Traders Almanac there's this magic little thing that reads:

"First-Trading-Day-Of-The-Month Phenomenon Dow Gains More One Day Than All Other Days"

Over the last 10 years the Dow has gained more points on the first trading days of all months than all other days combined.....

What's that noise sheep make?

Anonymous said...

baaa...

ibid.

AmenRa said...

ben22

Not sure what noise the sheep makes but it goes great with Chianti "pffffff".

CV said...

@AFIA2BNL

oooh... Thanks for reminding me about TLT...

Almost forgot! & I was about to write this day off as being uninteresting... (and go watch a Kevin Bacon movie)...

CV said...

@Amen (11:36)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjGpcEA-FyE

LOL - But nobody has to worry about CV... I'm just the "unibomber" (according to Liberace)... Census takers don't make it up my way...

And nobody knows that CV is actually "Ty Webb"...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfZ9KTXK5sY&feature=related

... Thank you very little!

karen said...

MBI up 21% today.. no div and PE of -3.119

karen said...

from 12/30: MBIA (MBI) added 15% following the stock's nearly 9% rise Wednesday on reports J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Barclays (BARC) (BCS) have withdrawn their opposition to the company's restructuring plan. MBIA plans to separate its municipal bond business from the structured finance businesses.

the chart is ufb

karen said...

S&P RAISES OPINION ON SHARES OF MBIA INC TO HOLD FROM SELL
1/7/11 S&P Marketscope

We attribute the recent strength in MBIA shares to some relatively favorable litigation developments related to MBI's proposed reorganization. However, we continue to recommend that investors not add to positions. We still view MBI's financial health as strained, and believe some of its assumptions regarding certain loss recoveries may be too optimistic. On the favorable litigation developments, however, we lift our target price by $3 to $13, 1.3X tangible book that we estimate to be $9.58 a share at 9/10, and a premium to most property-casualty insurers.

karen said...

okay.. this from one min ago:

Business Insider
MBIA Explodes Higher After Winning Case Challenging Its Restructuring http://read.bi/gr69rx

I-Man said...

The machines are hungry... gotta feed the machines.

CV said...

"We attribute the recent strength in MBIA shares to some relatively favorable litigation developments related to MBI's proposed reorganization"

---

"We attribute the recent strength in MBIA shares to (QEx), POMO, sheeple being led to slaughter, crazed central bankers, numbnuts fund managers, Harry Wanger"...

There... fixed it...

CV said...

Let's see...

Since 9:30 yesterday morning seemed to have marked the BOTTOM of the dip...

Am I to assume we need MORE political assassination attempts over the weekends to keep this market rolling to DOW 36,000?

JS&BTFD (just shoot and buy the fucking dip)

karen said...

FCX rumors of a seconday.. taking the price down a bit?

karen said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Goldman-vows-to-boost-rb-1934016306.html

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12158718

Antimatter caught streaming from thunderstorms on Earth

...Completely off topic, whatever the topic now is. But these antimatter streams seem to be centered now over Portugal....

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

3y Tsys auction ahead. I think it might be a bit of a stinker.

I mean, C'MON MAN, we are sitting at 0.98% and inflation projections are 2% ish. This one might come out with a bit of a tail, and then we may get some follow-on selling at the long end.

I repeat, I do not like the front end. You are completely at the mercy of the BEN BERNANK, and there is no effing yield. Why would you ever hold this? Unless you were an insolvent bank and were ORDERED to?

Hmmm....

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

So you think it is only equities that are gamed? Tsys are gamed.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/todays-pomo-confirms-fed-continues-shower-primary-dealers-billions-commission-based-profits

wunsacon said...

It would be nice to de-charge this atmosphere:

http://www.csgv.org/issues-and-campaigns/guns-democracy-and-freedom/insurrection-timeline

or at least not contribute to it.

Johnny Retail said...

I am too stupid to understand bonds.

Tiny Tim said...

We know. That's how we get away with it.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://online.wsj.com/article/AP9027e0888ef64448a0bab06e08594934.html

NEW YORK — New York City is about to confront its third snowstorm in less than three weeks, a day after Mayor Michael Bloomberg's administration admitted a series of mistakes in its handling of a Christmas weekend blizzard and promised immediate changes.

The National Weather Service issued a winter storm watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon, with the heaviest snowfall expected overnight.

New York City and its suburbs could get 6 to 12 inches of snow, with reduced visibility and wind gusts up to 35 mph, forecasters said. Bloomberg was scheduled to hold a briefing around midday.

Lord Blankfiend said...

Well said, Timmy.

Anonymous said...

Bruce,

That's a lot of snow that will be blowing up Lefty's kilt.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Lefty already left his sump pump out, and they say it is "totaled" whatever that means in sump pump speak...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

The thing about severe weather and spending. Say you plan to go out to eat tonight in NY. You don't for the next 4 days due to difficulty getting around.

The question is, do restaurants make that up later or like Christmas spending is it gone for the year?

CV said...

"Antimatter caught streaming from thunderstorms on Earth"

And all the while CV thought it was coming from White House press conferences...

Papa John said...

"do restaurants make that up later.."

Nope. The only winners are the pizza guys and that is only if their delivery guys can get out. Chinese places send out on bicycles or on foot.

If it stays like this peep might remember how to cook, and then the restaurants are really screwed.

Helicopter Ben said...

"Antimatter caught streaming from thunderstorms on Earth"

No, it is coming out of my ass in the form of banknotes.

Marc Faber said...

Ze dollahr vill bekomm VURTHLEZZ...

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

I wonder if GARY SHILLING and ROSIE will dip a toe into the LONG BOND this week?

Gary Shilling said...

Are you kidding? I will immerse my ENTIRE BODY in the LONG BOND, until all you can see is my bald head and the tips of my spectacles.

CV said...

@wunsa

"It would be nice to de-charge this atmosphere"

But...

Wilma (Flintstone) & Betty (Rubble) taught us all to "CHARGE IT"!

Marc Faber said...

Garreee, eet ees a sooeeesidell infestment....

Anonymous said...

A shocker to all of us. ADP was leaked and someone has gamed the market. Quelle horreur !

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/who-leaked-last-weeks-irrelevant-adp-number

Lord Blankfiend said...

Be more careful with those fat finger trades, Giles.

Careless.

CV said...

@Leftback

Here you go Lefty...

http://store1.up-00.com/Jun10/Z0t83656.jpg

Don't worry... I'm sure asmart lad like yourself took CV's advice and has a stale package of saltine crackers in the cupboard...

If you're crafty - You'll be able to catch a RAT to grind up into something you can spead on the crackers...

For "flavor" (you know)...

wunsacon said...

>> Wilma (Flintstone) & Betty (Rubble) taught us all to "CHARGE IT"!

The Flintstones are no role model, CV:

http://video.adultswim.com/family-guy/the-flintstones-divorce-attorney.html

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

The last snowstorm definitely had the feel of that movie. Except we didn't have the bit when the eye passed over and everything went to -150 C and the glass cracks in all the skyscrapers. That was extra cool.

Geddit... cool... ?

Anonymous said...

We love auctions.
The most excitement we have had since....

JNK said...

I would start unloading me this week.
I am overpriced and trading weakly.

CV said...

Me???

CV is still working on "thawing out" a pork loin that I froze in 2008...

Gonna grind it up with some napa cabbage, carrots, ginger, egg, hoisin sauce, & sesame oil, and fill it into wrappers...

Kind of feeling IN THE MOOD for "Chinese potstickers" tonight (to go along with the tuna sushi I'm slicing up)...

EEM said...

I am looking soooo shortable.

FXI said...

Me too. I am full of fraud and leverage.

CV said...

@Mutt

CV??? 3 months supplies????

Tsk tsk tsk... :-)

CV said...

@Lefty

You're still only getting a "fraction" of what AHAB & CV got last year...

Where we had 40 inches fall all in the same storm... Then 16 more inches 5 days later...

Anonymous said...

That's a lot of inches. Wonder what Karen thinks of that?

CV said...

SPY "basing" at a 261.8% extension to the last consolidation level...

12/14 & 12/27...

Gotta say... I-Man's "call" appears to be correct...

ben22 said...

I see the Chevy Volt was named North American Car of the year last year.

Shouldn't there have to be end users for it to be named car of the year?

Also, the ZH/ADP post....lol on so many levels.

Hans Christian Anderson said...

@Anon (12:59)

"Seems to me you'd stop and see - how beautiful they are"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXi3bjKowJU

ben22 said...

my hometown gets nearly 8 ft average snowfall per year

people on the east coast are a bunch of nancies

Nikita Kruschev said...

@ben22

"Da! The "Volga" was also the "Car of the Year"

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Not such a hot auction.
A 5 bp tail is quite a lot for the short end, BTC of 3 is modest.
Expect some carnage in 10s tomorrow?

Total Amount $32 B
Bid/Cover 3.06
Yield Awarded 1.027%

Anonymous said...

"people on the east coast are a bunch of nancies"

Agreed. The winters here are nothing much.

Lloyd finds the slush to be "disagreeable".
Giles thinks it is "bloody well brass monkeys".

ben22 said...

also, more huge trades in the options pits today, primarily bearish ones

some big speculators have their claws out and then some the last few weeks.

today's trades once again target Feb and March

CV said...

Kruschev has a lot in common with the "Teleprompter in Chief"...

He also won a PEACE PRIZE...

The "Lenin Peace Prize"...

Congrats on your outstanding contribution to humanity!

I-Man said...

watch this dip...

Anonymous said...

CIM and NLY are weak ahead of the Tsy auctions W and Th, as MBB is slipping. Once rates stabilize and MBB stops falling, these stocks are going to be a big buy, as the rate outlook will improve substantially from here on renewed economic weakness, and they have been buying up MBS cheap down here.

Looking at nibbling on T and DF as well, perhaps for later in the week. A moderate broad market sell-off seems to be in the air.

I-Man said...

I think that was Jeff Cooper's mystery seller right there...

Well timed.

Next wiggle lower is the one to pounce on, imo...

Anonymous said...

ZH on the 3y auction:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/32-billion-3-year-auction-prices-1027-306-bid-cover

CV said...

@I-Man

You watch it for me...

All I see is another triangle (the epicenter is 126.62 spy)...

So CV needs to go out and get some "NORI" & "Konbu" for my sushi (& rolls)...

Don't always have EVERYTHING in the pantry you know...

wunsacon said...

>> Shouldn't there have to be end users for it to be named car of the year?

Good point.

This is like handing out a Nobel Peace Prize to someone who has yet to make peace.

Anonymous said...

Don't always have EVERYTHING in the pantry you know...

Wonder what the Mistress has in the pantry?
ARUGULA, certainly. WINE, probably. What else ???

Bruce in Tennessee said...

a taser...

ben22 said...

can DF pass on higher costs to their customers?

some groceries are getting pounded today....

Anonymous said...

For every disturbed young shooter, there is a disturbing brooding aggressively angry parent. At least one. Not surprising.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Retail is going to have tough sledding. Materials and miners and industrials as well. The reflation/restocking trades are ending.

Pick em carefully...

ben22 said...

Wunsacon,

I read it like a PR stunt. Bob Putz "slipping" when he said he appreciated people's volts...I mean, uh votes, for car of the year.

sort of put the icing on the cake for me.

I was going to go back and try to figure out if a car had ever won this in a year when it was still basically a concept.

Anonymous said...

Monkey see, monkey do. Stay away from these names:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/245568-10-stocks-that-are-enormously-owned-by-hedge-funds?source=article_sb_popular_1

I-Man said...

Shhh...

btd

Anonymous said...

Credit isn't selling off, although there is modest buying of Ts.
Quite a few segments of the market are having a bad day.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-11/brown-makes-universities-poor-californians-shoulder-biggest-budget-cuts.html

Brown Makes Universities, Poor Californians Shoulder Biggest Budget Cuts

..I suppose not having a degree in journalism has stunted my ability to decipher headlines, but how exactly would it read if Brown's cuts had been targeted at millionaires? (I know...but assuming the state assistance WAS spent on millionaires)

"Parking meters installed in front of all California Starbucks..rate is 800 dollars/hour under Brown's new proposal."

or something similar..

AmenRa said...

JNK, HYG, LQD, TIP, BKX, XLF all higher. The JBTFD crowd are stil hovering.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41019790

"Things were bad but the broader economy never reached Depression territory. The housing market, on the other hand, just crossed that threshold.

Home values have fallen 26 percent since their peak in June 2006, worse than the 25.9-percent decline seen during the Depression years between 1928 and 1933, Zillow reported.

November marked the 53rd consecutive month (4 ½ years) that home values have fallen.

What’s worse, it’s not over yet: Home values are expected to continue to slide as inventories pile up, and likely won't recover until the job market improves."

CV said...

"The reflation/restocking trades"

BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHAAAAAAA!

ror-ror-ror-rotfr!

Got my "nori" & "konbu"...

Tuna sushi & California rolls here we come!

CV said...

Interesting little daily candle on TLT there...

Failure to sell off...

Anonymous said...

British banker bonii under attack:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-11/osborne-says-nothing-off-the-table-in-push-for-lower-u-k-bank-bonuses.html

Jennifer said...

http://markettimingcycles.wordpress.com/2011/01/09/world-indices-due-for-a-correction/

Anonymous said...

This chart is due for another step lower....?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=TIP:US

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Les Miles says "pbttttttttt" to Michigan...

Now where did he leave that pocket watch?

karen said...

I"m back.. FWIW or NTIM

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen, Lefty was having separation anxiety! Thank goodness you are back.

Anonymous said...

Jennifer

We concur with the sentiment of that post.

The likely scenario is: US Tsy auction is weak - higher bond yields, equity weakness, China tightening over the weekend, Asian weakness, EM unwind, stronger dollar, commodity weakness, Euro weakness, carry trade unwind, global sell-off.

The question is: now, or next month?

Anonymous said...

Welcome back, K.

CV has been ROR-ing me and he needs some company.
Have to run to a meeting, back at the close.

Anonymous said...

Bruce

I am having shoveling anxiety looking at your driveway.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Me too

ben22 said...

there are no calls for a return to bear market anywhere, the only one I saw was Andy's 2011 outlook post, that's what is coming after we top out imo, not a correction, it should blindside most thinking they'll have a place to hide out, the market has invited back that sort of complacency so it can take peoples money away.

the stage is set for this now that the economy has improved, the first thing off every equity bulls lips.

if only people paid any attention to the market instead of the Fed, they could see that people with sizeable sums of money are making outsized bearish options bets on equities and huge upside bets on VIX.

these aren't momo options trades for 10 contracts, they are happening in trade blocks of $3-10 million.

ben22 said...

also, cycles are not the dominant force in markets and even further the cycle dominating trend constantly changes.

seen enough people mention the "3rd year of the presidential cycle" yet to discount it?

I have......

MOMO option trader said...

I resemble that remark...

CV said...

@ben

3rd year of Presidential cycle...

ROR - yeah, we're supposed to be up 50% from last July's lows...

I hope that's where Ritzy has positioned all his communist union money (that is - while it's still rolling in and not being defaulted on)...

karen said...

you see these percentages up? .21% naz, .23% dow, .23% spx.. you know that bugs me..

CV said...

He ought to just call it F(UNI)ON CAPITAL

Emphasis on the "FU" part...

karen said...

GS is not having a stellar day..

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.indiainfoline.com/Markets/News/Economic-Buzz-Greece-Successfully-Auctions-Bond-But-At-A-Premium/3479289814

Greece Successfully Auctions Bond But At A Premium

26 weeks at 4.9%...seems peeps are not yet getting the message.

ben22 said...

CV,

oh, and don't let me forget to add, 3rd year of the presidential cycle "since the end of world war II"

I mean, with so many people calling for it, it must be so.....right.

Also while I have a minute, almost as hilarious as the claims that since nearly all the gains came on the first day of the month last year and therefore markets must be rigged were these sentiments I saw railing about how "let the contrarians followers be many.....we'll sit back and make money......"

had to really slap the knee on that one

if the contrarians followers are "many", then by def. they aren't contrarian and the person writing this bashing contrarians, is in fact the contrarian. As for what's going on now, its the same consensual circle jerk that always exists.

also, another dumbass comment, that the tension between parties in this country must be worse than ever, and this recent killing helps "prove it"

R o effing R

newsflash

one time, in the United States, there was.....

A Civil EFFING WAR!

but yeah, must be the worst now.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.nytimes.com/pages/business/index.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1207749827-C8Br6F4J2rjpdTtzOyNVeA

Foreigners Shun Europe’s Bonds, and Debt Piles Up

CV said...

@ben22

"3rd year of the presidential cycle "since the end of world war II"

Fuck me!... You just tossed my Franklin Pierce and Zachary Taylor computations right out the effin window...

Chump!

CV said...

Why... Oh Why... did this country take so long to elect a "Barack Obama" type to POTUS?...

Hell - We could have been to Dow 36,000 before WWII even...

This is bullshit!

CV said...

Speaking of the "O"'s (Obamaland - Oprahland)...

Bad News For Our Chicago Readers: Illinois House Committee Passes Bill To Hike Taxes


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bad-news-our-chicago-readers-illinois-house-committee-passes-bill-hike-taxes

Sorry Jen - when they figure out THAT not enough even THAT is enough to stop the bleeding, they'll be coming after your first born...

You know - so those retired trash collectors can quit at 50 on full pension and invest their life savings in "F(uni)on Capital"... Keeping Ritzy well slathered in Grey Poupon...

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

26 weeks at 4.9%

ROR. That's sustainable.
Greek kebab shop economy is growing at 9.8% right?

Britney Spears said...

"Oops I did it again"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/liquidity-fail

Anonymous said...

If you have ever lived in Chicago, you would realize that Illinois steals from the poor (Downstate) and the middle class to give to the poor (in the city) and the rich (in the city). That's politics.

CV said...

@AFIA2BNL (3:34)

Kind of had my eye on some baklava...

Pollock Johnny said...

@Anon (3:38)

I don't care... As long as DA BEARS are winning...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXhEPxXyhW0

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Beautifully done by Rosie, here.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-japan-congruity-explained-david-rosenberg-ten-easy-pictures

A reminder to Bananamericans that Deflation Trumps All.

Our present condition reminds me so much of Japan in 1996, when after a truly fabulous long rally in the Nikkei.... it all turned to shit.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_V7Pddp58Py0/SpFh8vXXrwI/AAAAAAAACX8/e95SCt93ECo/s1600-h/nikk+98.png

When the Treasury market is threatened, the game will be over.

Anonymous said...

DITKA could fix the economy, yeah.....

BANANARAMA said...

"A reminder to Bananamericans"

---

I heard a rumor...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IddaRTuYRW4

It could be a Cruel Summer...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPNhV1gF008&feature=related

When they find out... YES WE HAVE NO BANANAS!

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/watch-insane-video-of-a-flash-flood-in-brisbane-washing-away-an-entire-parking-lot-of-cars-2011-1

Jennifer said...

CV -- thanks for pointing out my looming tax increases. Isn't Illinois grand? I better buy a lot more dips to pay for those extra taxes. As for my first born...right now at least, they can have her. I think she needs another round of IV fluids in about 4 hours and I really don't feel like going there again so soon, especially with all this snow.

karen said...

do not watch that video above!!

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

We sold more TIP.
Duration is going to get smacked tomorrow.

This is the best time to hold cash in the last 12 months.
Not time to short equities yet, let the bond market come to you.

CV said...

JJC looking like it survived the H&S test 9for now)...

Nickles bitchez! (got me 6 new rolls today)...

CV said...

Rain = the Bernank

Parking Lot of cars = your 401K

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

We have become so (over)-confident on our bond calls we don't even bother to use a stop on TBT any more.

Now we will get smacked....

We await a new POMO timetable. New schedule announced at 2pm tomorrow, after the 10y has been soundly trounced, we assume.

Isaac Newton said...

Water is much less compressible than most imagine and can easily support the weight of an automobile. "For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction". Thanks, Isaac.

Driving through standing water, not smart. Even in a HUMMER.

Anonymous said...

T at LOD. Don't grab that knife yet....

CV said...

8 pounds a gallon (H20)...

But a gallon of gold weighs 161 lbs...

choose wisely

CV said...

Meant to say 11 (gallon H20)

CV said...

depends on "fresh" or not

CV said...

speaking of that...

gotta get back to my "sushi rice"

later bitchez!

ben22 said...

if the charts Rosie presents hold any water, then on the other side of it US stocks are likely overvalued by at least 50%.

Also, this;

"If you have ever lived in Chicago, you would realize that Illinois steals from the poor (Downstate) and the middle class to give to the poor (in the city) and the rich (in the city). That's politics."

No, that's not politics, just Bawney Fwanks interpretation of how Robin Hood "should've been"

steal from over here, move it over there, exempt yourself from everything, literally live above the law.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Silver looks like it is in a squeeze. Good day to not have the widow maker out and be waving it around. It is safely in the scabbard*.

* No doubt a relief to all.

Ben, I think commodity stocks and tech are overvalued by at least 50%. Other stocks are probably undervalued. Multiple contraction will take care of a lot of what is going to go on in the 2011-2012 meat-grinder.

HInt: If you are long SPY or RUT, it won't be pretty. Of note, the onset of the 1996 Japan bear was the onset of the period of extremely low rates at the long end in JGBs. It's later than you think. After the next rally in Treasuries it will get more and more difficult to generate volatility, make money or find yield. The nuclear winter approaches. Only THE BERNANK can fight it.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

This is what THE BERNANK is doing to the rest of the world:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/violence-over-surging-food-prices-algeria-spreads-rioting-leaves-many-dead-neighboring-tunis

eventually the rest of the world is going to push back against the hot money flows from BB's bottom. Then it is a trip to global correction land. It is coming soon now, China has the trigger in its hands and can act this weekend, next weekend or over the Chinese New Year.

Be careful out there.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Hint: Some stocks will behave like commodities (clavadista) and others will behave a lot more like bonds. The trick will be to figure out which ones you have. For example, NZT is a boring old telecom, but it actually trades like EEM b/c of the currency aspect, so it is actually a DGDF trade. Confusing isn't it?

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

This is really quite good:

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2011/01/11/011111SpecialReport.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

a fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Ladies everywhere are panting in anticipation of.....

The Bond Report 1.11.11

HY outperformed IG again today across the board. We also had a mild steepener after a not-so-good auction of 3y was followed by slightly suspicious buying of the short end (to support B/D's brand new purchases at 1.03%?) after a POMO in the 7-10y range. Tomorrow's thrills and spills include a 10y auction at 1pm and the release of the next Ponzi, sorry we mean POMO, schedule at 2pm.

Corpies: LQD -0.05%; AGG -0.20%; JNK 0.30%; HYG 0.39%
Govies: TLT -0.56%; IEI -0.19%; TIP 0.04%
Hedgies: TBT 1.07%

We sold TIP today b/c we think that long duration will take a trip to the woodshed tomorrow and Thursday as we go into auctions of 10s and 30s and a PPI release.

We are 22% long HYG, 6% TIP, 3% LQD and hedged with 16% TBT. We are now looking to gradually offload HYG and will be reducing our position back down to 15% on strength, while looking to transition into LQD, AGG and TLT - over the next 3-4 weeks, perhaps?

Anonymous said...

Tokyo condo prices fell for 20 years, ROR... and now US housing is going to follow suit, especially if the OBAMANAUTS quit HAMPING....

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/corelogic-house-prices-declined-16-in.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29

BAC, meet more write-downs.

Anonymous said...

This is great, read ALL OF IT, including the comments.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/01/is-inflation-about-to-burst-the-chinese-bubble.html

Food is more expensive in Beijing than it is in Boston. Think about that and about the relative levels of salaries, then think about their housing market. We think we have it bad here, but this is why I tell you that the Japanese deleveraging decade would be the BEST possible outcome. China is going to blow up and it is going to be very ugly.

karen said...

FYI... on the links above @4:45 and 4:29.. everything from/including the question mark on is superfluous!

karen said...

i didn't think the comments on that nakedcap article were good.. perhaps i skimmed to hastily..

karen said...

this is wild!! http://www.marketwatch.com/story/lululemon-raises-outlook-shares-jump-7-2011-01-11

Anonymous said...

The comments about working for the Chinese were interesting. My point is that I think we are massively over-rating the ability of the Chinese economy to lead or sustain a global recovery.

Their ability to do large modern engineering projects rapidly not withstanding, this is in every way a poor country that has had a rich elite strapped on top of it for show while the workers toiled, and when this happens (USA, 1920s) the results are almost always quite unfortunate.

karen said...

interesting: http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/01/11/yes-there-is-still-facebook-stock-for-sale/

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