Gold/Silver Ratio (weekly info)new high 43.963
trend=up
high= 43.963
rev= 42.420; mid= 43.192
This ratio has been making smaller weekly 3LB highs indicating this move higher is weakening. Currently it is trading below its weekly 3LB reversal price. It has failed to take out the 61.8% retrace#2 (44.787) for the last ten weeks. It's also trading below its 50.0% retrace#2 (42.340). The longer SMA's are starting to point lower. Silver appears to be preparing to make its next move higher.
30Yr Bond (weekly info)WEEKLY REVERSAL new low 122.750
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 122.750
rev= 126.469; mid= 124.610
The long bond rejected the 38.2% retrace#2 (127.113). That rejection sent it below the SMA(21) & SMA(55). This week it's still testing the SMA(55). The week ending 7/1/11 had a weekly 3LB reversal down. It needs to get back to 123.882 (61.8% retrace#2) if it plans to push higher. Also getting back above the weekly 3LB mid would strengthen the move.
30 comments:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/in-debt-talks-obama-offers-social-security-cuts/2011/07/06/gIQA2sFO1H_story.html?wpisrc=al_national
Obama offering SS and medicare cuts today. The longer this fellow is in office, the more I wonder just what it is that makes him tick. He seems to have no real internal principles, he just seems to be one of those guys who thought they'd like to be president. I liked Reagan, although he was the beginnning of the fiscal mess we are in. BUT, you knew without a doubt where he stood. Now Obama is going to put the elderly under the bus. I would call this shameful from a liberal democrat. Let's get out of our neo-Vietnams first...
Funny how Bloomberg's scroller is stuck on the ADP release. I guess nothing else matters when it's BTE.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-07/hedge-funds-move-past-greece-with-bets-that-sovereign-debt-crisis-expands.html
Hedge Funds Bet on Wider European Debt Crisis
Damn, just remembered that the July 4th holiday was last week so Initial Claims will probably be BTE also.
Initial Claims 418k down 14k from a revised 432k (it was 428k last week).
crude....
wow.
Don't you love how the talking heads say ADP is not a good proxy when it's WTE but is accurate when it's BTE. What a joke.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ecb-suspends-rating-requirement-portugese-collateral
ECB Suspends Rating Requirement For Portuguese Collateral
A stunner in the JCT press conference, who just announced that the ECB is willing to accept any junk that comes its way. Specifically he said that the ECB has decided to suspend a rating requirement for Portuguese collateral, and that the ECB will shortly issue a press release on the matter. Obviously the bank is now making stuff up as it comes alone. He also added that the suspension will be maintained until further notice. Expect this move to affect Italian, SPanish and all other insolvent country debt shortly as it becomes all too clear that the ECB will do everything in its power to give out cash against insolvent paper. And now you know what Europe's QE looks like.
In so many words Portugal is done/insolvent/too far gone/dead in the water.
@Amen
don't worry... it's all "transitory"
---
Thanks for the GSR chart...
Nickles bitchez!
1) Since Initial Claims printed +400k for the 13th week in a row, what makes anyone think NFP will be BTE? Most of the ADP increase was in the "services" sector. So it's likely an increase in summer jobs.
2) Now that the ECB is accepting any and all junk bonds from Portugal, how long before it does the same for Italy, Ireland or Greece? Maintain the status quo at all costs. When will all of this BS come home to roost?
AR, a joke it is, seasonally (mal)adjusted (then revised) (then annually adjusted again) numbers are crap. You mean to tell me each state doesn't know how many checks they send out each week? This data can't then be sent to our trusting Govt peeps that count the unemployed?
Now that the ECB is accepting any and all junk bonds from Portugal, how long before it does the same for Italy, Ireland or Greece?
I wonder if they'll accept my bitcoins as collateral?
only have one more thing to say about unemployment...
Hockeystick
guess someone got the EIA crude number number early.
"guess someone got the EIA crude number number early."
that guy has a SODA machine
it's replaced the easy button
@Q's, 10:48
that's just a soft patch
QQQQ
The US barely went above 20 weeks for 60 years and now we've doubled the number of weeks in less than two years.
RAN Squawk headline: EU' Junker in favor of European rating agency.
IOW since the US ratings aren't playing ball, we'll create our own so we can control it.
Just noticed that todays high for TICK didn't take out yesterdays high. HA!
AR, and add to that, I'm not on any list, currently not working for 2 or 3 weeks. CA makes it so frik'n hard to get unemployment now. If you have vacation saved, you can't get unemployment, so I just didn't file this time.
Also, the peeps that work at CA ED, they're stupid.
after waiting on the phone for about 30 minutes...
"Did you works last week?"
"no"
"Did you receive any monies last week?"
"yes"
"You tolds me you didn't works last week!"
"I didn't work last week but received a check for working a previous week"
"You keeps changing you story!"
"no I didn't. working and receiving a check are two different things"
"I'm denying you claim!"
!click!
SODA starting to look like that unemployment chart I posted... sheesh...
NDX up about 10% from lows 2 weeks ago
"Also, the peeps that work at CA ED, they're stupid."
No, they are just good capitalists/Republicans.
qqqq@11.37.
Dude. That's hilarious.
here's a longer 'take' on the "Big Banks + Commod.s"-Story..
"Usual Suspects Now Heavily Involved with Commodity Warehousing
July 6th, 2011
This is beyond ridiculous. It gives a whole new meaning to front running.
“There is no evidence to suggest they share information…”
Oh sure.
My guess is that this is the primary reason that these firms have gotten involved with commodity warehousing. If the left hand isn’t sharing information with the right hand, with hundreds of millions of dollars in potential trading profits hanging in the balance, I’m Santa Claus.
Via: Wall Street Journal:
About 600 miles from Wall Street, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. employees are busy doing deals.
But instead of a sleek office tower, they work in a rundown warehouse deep in an industrial section of Detroit. And rather than trading in stocks or bonds, they move metal—lots of metal.
Goldman’s warehouse on the banks of the Detroit River is one of more than 100 storage facilities controlled by the giant securities firm around the world. The warehouses are part of Wall Street’s effort to forge a new frontier in the commodities markets: warehousing metal.
In the past 18 months, Goldman, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and trading firms Glencore International PLC and Trafigura Beheer BV have snapped up warehouse operators, all of them accredited to house metal traded through the London Metal Exchange, or LME. The buying binge means the four firms now are landlords to about two-thirds of the LME’s entire metal stocks, from aluminum to copper to zinc.
LME metal stocks represent a small portion of the global supply. For example, LME’s total aluminum stocks are about 4.5 million tons, or about 10% of the world’s annual supply.
For Wall Street, warehouses are a way to earn extra income, especially as core businesses like trading are suffering. The facilities represent a relatively small but profitable way to bet on commodities markets without actually trading, the firms said..."
http://cryptogon.com/?p=23368
AAIP
ETrade babies strike again with their pattern recognition software firing off the trade...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fractal-algo-strikes-again-infect-crude-oil-trading
@AAIP
Of course... CV is a "nut job" for suggesting that theory over a year ago...
CV,
pardon me, but I hardly think that's exactly the theory you proposed
it's not as if that article validated that Goldman or JPM were taking over the worlds supply of gold and silver via some covert operations, not at all in fact
I can count the SPY volume on one hand. Sheesh.
SODA chart got really interesting today
to say the least
Must have p/o the bulls with the dancing bears yesterday which was saying the bulls didn't have full control.
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