DXY (weekly info)-no change (at mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 75.76
rev= 72.93; mid= 74.35
The weakness is the dollar was stopped at the weekly 3LB mid last week. It also avoided breaking below the 38.2% expansion. It did close below the SMA(21) but the EMA(10) crossed above it. Now that the EOQ & EOM shenanigans have ended the uptrend might be ready to continue.
GOLD (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 1557.30
rev= 1475.00; mid= 1516.15
The week ending 6/24/11 had a high that failed to take out the high from the week ending 5/6/11. Is the top in? It's also below the SMA(21) and below the weekly 3LB mid. But all of the SMA's are still sloping up. So there's still an opportunity for gold to continue higher.
WTI (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 91.16
rev= 114.31; mid= 102.74
Last week was the second test of the 61.8% retrace. It held. It also was able to hold the SMA(55) & SMA(89). It held the lower trend line. If it breaks lower look for 83.81 as support and if higher 101.82 as resistance.
22 comments:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-05/could-italy-be-next-european-domino-to-fall-commentary-by-simon-johnson.html
Could Italy Be Next European Domino to Fall?: Simon Johnson
"In the most recent International Monetary Fund projections, Italy’s headline debt will reach 120 percent of national output this year, and then decline only slightly to 118 percent by the end of 2016."
...Gonna need a stronger leg and a bigger can....
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ism-new-orders-less-inventories-decoupling-hits-unprecedented-levels-implies-sub-45-ism-comp
"While all the algos are scanning the ISM general business conditions headline, the New Orders Less Inventories spread, which leads the broader index by 3 months, has tumbled and the divergence between it and the ISM Composite is now at near record wide levels. The last time this spread closed in a favorable fashion was back in 2010, when QE1 and 2 goosed the market and the general manufacturing space. This time around, in the absence of another stimulus, the spread will close again all right, but not the way it did last time around, and explains why an ISM analyst just said new orders "not where we'd like it to be." The sub 50 ISM print is coming. Just not this month."
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/06/13/ecris-achuthan-prolonged-u-s-slowdown-underway/
ECRI’s Achuthan: Prolonged U.S. Slowdown Underway
...PMI's,CPI's,PPI's, and retail sales...
..taken together, a somewhat less rosy outcome than, say, Liesman would predict...
http://www.rttnews.com/CorpInfo/EconomicCalendar.aspx
..later.
BinT
As bad as the data is the market is trying to ignore it. The SPX is back above its weekly & monthly 3LB mids (in record time). Eventually the emergency brake on the elevator will fail and down she goes.
I spy an inverted H&S pattern on the Crude chart....targets 102.22....
Andy T
I'm trying to use fibo retracements according to C. Brown's book. Just using the theories from the first three chapters but will adjust as additional chapters are finished.
h/t ben22
@AT,
Thanks for the S&P charts over the weekend, just got a chance to look them over this morning.
Should be a great week.
@Ra,
Her book changed a lot of my trading methods, especially how I come up with short term targets when I'm making 1-30 day options trades
glad you are getting something out of it, doesn't seem too many people are very familiar with that book but it's probably the best fibo trading book I know of
Looks like the e-trade babies are getting tired of "raging against the machine"...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cbot-june-trading-volume-drops-929-compared-prior-year
E-Trade, take control, rise up.
(Burp)
Last week: big squeeze or dip buying? Discuss.
FWIW we were sellers and will be out of our index punts today.
Staying long Japan, dividends. Short energy stocks and EMs.
Not massively bearish, about 40% NET long equities.
Essentially no fixed income at all.
Why I continue to be a China bear...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/07/data-dump-chinese-construction/
"Why I continue to be a China bear..."
Them Chinese...
I’ve got a bridge to sell you.
Leftback
I'm still leaning towards EOQ window dressing which is a hell of a lot more volatile than EOM window dressing. IMHO.
Ra
Yes I am sure that window dressing and low volume contributed.
If Greece can cause all that drama, what about Spain, China, Brazil?
Brazil YC is inverted and there are rumors of a credit crunch.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/brazil/
Trouble in Paradise?
Leftback
Ugh 2s10s spread is -0.37 for Brazil
Portugal downgraded to Ba2 from Baa1 by Moody's (aka it's now junk).
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-cuts-portugal-debt-rating-to-junk-grade-2011-07-05
Guess who has exposure to Portugal?
Brazilian banks.
Casey Anthony NOT Guilty of murder....
wow.
O.J. Award for Jurisprudence to the morons on the jury.
Is everyone in this country lobotomized, or what?
Casey Anthony NOT Guilty of murder....
Lloyd Blankfein a "Nice Guy", says Doorman.
Anthony Weiner, just "contacting constituents".
Greece NOT bankrupt.
Cigarettes good for you.
Nickles bitchez!
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