SODA (weekly info)WEEKLY CONFIRMATION new high 75.68
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 75.68
rev= 51.45; mid= 63.57
SODA is trending up on the monthly 3LB (not on the weekly). This week is bearish but is not a reversal candle. It has closed below the 50.0% minor retrace (67.50). It's still above the weekly 3LB mid. Probably some profit taking just in case the markets weakness becomes pandemic.
GOLD (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 1557.30
rev= 1475.00; mid= 1516.15
The 1550 as resistance is history. The value of gold in all currencies is making new highs. Or said another way all currencies are losing their value. It's above all SMA's. The weekly and monthly 3LB are both trending up. Central banks all over the world have stocked up on Depends.
2s30s Spread (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up
high= 4.01
rev= 3.52; mid= 3.77
This spread has been in a tight range for months. The 2yr yield is low enough that it's the yield on the 30yr that determines the spread. Currently it's above all SMA's. It is now below its 61.8% minor retrace (3.84). It's also close to breaking below its lower trend line. Let's see what happens if there is a QE3.
43 comments:
Central banks all over the world have stocked up on Depends
I don't exactly see it that way... & have been saying this for awhile...
Instead, I think they've pretty much abandoned the idea of trying to control this through paper markets... Not that it means that gold will just go vertical here... But more that it will continue it's decade long broad technical pattern... (which is bottom left to top right)...
The only thing that will basically keep up will be crude (but gold will be more steady)...
Stealthily... it ALREAdY IS the new dollar...
The CB's screwed up because they figured they could keep people chasing after paper wealth (after 2000)... it worked for awhile with housing, but that's gone now...
All that's left is to continue to conjure mountains upon mountains of new debt into existence (threaten TEOTWAKI if things like 'debt ceilings' aren't raised, or if any country should, dog forbid, default)...
They'll siphon off as many of those freshly minted debt notes (dollars, euros, yen, & yuan) as possible & buy physical gold with them (for the day when it actually all does collapse)... CB's don't need granite countertops, or iPods, they need gold... Stacks & stacks of it... & the last thing they want to see is it falling into private hands...
J6P will never be able to keep up with them because the price of gold (at $200) was in J6P's reach, @ $1,500, not so much... At $3,000... 4geddabout it (when cornflakes cost $6 a box & gasoline is $5)...
In 2002, J6P needed to be thinking about buying gold... Instead, someone convinced him that gold had done nothing but LOSE 75% since the 1980 bubble peak... Here, Johnny, why not buy this nice shiny house that you can live in, and will double in price in 5 years... Even better, take out a 2nd mortgage on it to put in granite counter tops, a sub zero freezer, send your kid to college & take a cruise while you're at it...
It's a 'managing' game right now... Best thing to hope for is to try not to let it get out of hand... There are all sorts of propaganda tools to use for that (& luckily J6P is relative stupid & rather easily distracted... not to mention possibly broke & out of work)...
---
Right where he 'should' be...
Martin Armstrong (recent)
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/The%20Fate%20of%20Gold%20and%20Oil%20Front%20Runner%2007-04-2011.pdf
was out of pocket a lot yday. I like the chatter on the QE3 ...
Gold exploding in response.
even among the 'Wealthy'--there's a huge difference between U$D ~500 and U$D ~1000 ..
to say nothing of U$D (3/6/9/12/15) 00 ...
(was trying to find the "Foreign Affairs" that was pimping the 'private Gold Standard'-Idea, to no avail)
this stub, was all I found..
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/62614/benn-steil/the-end-of-national-currency
from May/June 2007..
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=w1
Au, then < U$D ~700 ..
AAIP
Andy,
Does your count as a triple-three give you any concern from the perspective of their rarity?
Bernanke's speech:
Once the temporary shocks that have been holding down economic activity pass, we expect to again see the effects of policy accommodation reflected in stronger economic activity and job creation. However, given the range of uncertainties about the strength of the recovery and prospects for inflation over the medium term, the Federal Reserve remains prepared to respond should economic developments indicate that an adjustment in the stance of monetary policy would be appropriate.
On the one hand, the possibility remains that the recent economic weakness may prove more persistent than expected and that deflationary risks might reemerge, implying a need for additional policy support. Even with the federal funds rate close to zero, we have a number of ways in which we could act to ease financial conditions further. One option would be to provide more explicit guidance about the period over which the federal funds rate and the balance sheet would remain at their current levels. Another approach would be to initiate more securities purchases or to increase the average maturity of our holdings. The Federal Reserve could also reduce the 25 basis point rate of interest it pays to banks on their reserves, thereby putting downward pressure on short-term rates more generally. Of course, our experience with these policies remains relatively limited, and employing them would entail potential risks and costs. However, prudent planning requires that we evaluate the efficacy of these and other potential alternatives for deploying additional stimulus if conditions warrant.
Did he just give the QE3 hint?
Gold ... wow.
Well that didn't take long from the Beard.
@Andy
I'm actually thinking now about backing away from the silver>gold arbitrage I'd suggested back in May (which 'worked' BTW)...
Take a look at the gold chart in the Martin Armstrong link above... If he's right (which he may be)... Then gol will fly a little here but then may come whipping back by labor day)...
So if you have to arb OUT of a high flyer... PLATINUM may be the place to go...
I think Matthew has been on that idea for awhile now...
Barney Frank looks hungover.
Ron Paul, "Do you think gold is money?"
Bernanke,"No."
..obviously only dead presidents can be money..
Bears putting up a good fight at SPX 1330. They better be able to hold through the 15th round.
Ron Paul, "Do you think gold is money?"
Bernanke,"No."
That was pretty 'telling.'
"subprime is contained"
Besides... Maybe nobody really heard the question correctly...
Ron Paul: "Is there actually any gold in Ft. Knox"?
Bernanke: "No"
USDJPY below the weekly close of 78.98 that happened the week of the tsunami. BoJ intervention coming soon.
CV
Francis?
@Amen
Roger that...
Since the auction has started who is willing to buy 10yr notes at a yield below 3.00%? Will it be China? The EU? Will the PD's have to take down 70% or more?
What's the percentage of gold in the earth's crust?, now you know.
@qqqq
That chart doesn't show how many bitcoins are in the earths crust...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-treasury-orders-electronic-invoicing-2011-07-13
U.S. Treasury orders electronic invoicing
By Jeff Bater
WASHINGTON -(MarketWatch)- To save money, the U.S. Treasury Department will require that its commercial vendors submit their bills electronically.
Treasury said Wednesday it is ordering all of its bureaus to implement an electronic invoice processing system by the end of fiscal 2012.
And in fiscal 2013, Treasury will require commercial vendors to use the system to submit their invoices.
"Electronic invoicing will mean lower costs for taxpayers and faster payments for private-sector companies doing business with the federal government," Deputy Treasury Secretary Neal Wolin said.
Treasury estimated that taxpayers would save as much as $450 million a year if the invoicing system is adopted across the federal government.
Uh huh. Seems like the Treasury is scared silly of a failed auction. This way they can fudge the numbers and kick the can down the road a little more.
I'm basically thinking if I can accrue enough bitcoins...
I can trade them in to buy some 'bit lumber', you know, to build on my FARMVILLE estate...
Gonna need some 'bit diesel' too (to power the tractor)...
10yr results
PD take down 44.11%, hit rate 20.99%
DB take down 13.90%, hit rate 29.13%
IB take down 41.99%, hit rate 70.25%
Bid to cover 3.17
@cv, I'd use bit stones, they're free if you carry them from the river bank and last much longer than lumber.
I wish Steve and Rick from CNBS would get their own weekly show... someone would end up with black-eyes...
@qqqq
My $$ would be on the Italian...
@Amen & @Andy
Would both you guys min doing a Platinum (Pt) chart for a look at the 3lb & wave count oddities sometime before the weekend?
Also... Amen...
Maybe a PT:AU (ratio) & PT:AG (ratio) look???
good luck finding a wave count on platinum, lol
I'll look forward to that effort if its put out there
in re: Mr. Wizards comments on gold
"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation [...] Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. it stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism towards the gold standard."
- Alan Greenspan, Gold and Economic Freedom, 1968
I'll try to do some work tonight on charts.
maybe this will work...
PLAT daily
PLAT weekly
WOW, just noticed on the above weeky charts he put $3000-2012 price target. Also, look at his chartbook... he has a gob of charts on just about everything.
Seems like James Harrison has a problem with Goodell:
"NEW YORK (AP) -- Heavily fined Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker James Harrison calls NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell a "crook" and a "devil," among other insults, in a magazine article.
The 2008 AP Defensive Player of the Year hasn't been shy about ripping the league after he was docked $100,000 for illegal hits last season. In the August issue of Men's Journal, his rants against Goodell reach another level of wrath.
"If that man was on fire and I had to piss to put him out, I wouldn't do it," Harrison told the magazine. "I hate him and will never respect him."
His other descriptions of the commissioner include an anti-gay slur, "stupid," "puppet" and "dictator."
Hmm,
tony Caldero came up elswhere in discussions this morning
I think his wave counts are all wrong, but what do I know.....
for instance, he calls 02-07 a five wave impulse up
he calls the period of overlap in summer 2009 and impuslive wave, last I saw he labeled that a series of 1's and 2's
some more fun with quotes
Jack Welch Jan. 19, 2007 interview
Q: What do you think of analysts who predict we'll be in recession in six months?
A: They should find another line of work.
Q: Do you think sentiment is too bullish?
A: I'm not here as a market timer. Im' here to tell you this economy's in one helluva good shape.
9/25/2008
Reuters: Fromer GE Chair and CEO Jack Welch said the US economy faces a deep downturn in coming quarters, and he supports a proposed $700 bilion government rescue package for the financial sector.
"I know believe we are in for one hell of a deep downturn," Welch told the World Business Forum in NY on Wednesday, adding that the first quarter of 2009 will likely be "brutal"
well, it was, but it was also the bottom
it's amazing how the "experts" get away with contradicting their own statements over and over again
I could square 68' Greenie with 05' Greenie and it's basically a different person, yet this guy, like Welch, still shouts from the rooftops
"tell me when I was wrong"
Almost forgot option pain for SPY is 132.
That's why I' like to see Andy's work on such... (however hard it may be)...
I'd also like to see the 3lb looks on that, as well as the Pt:Au & Pt: Ag ratios (to give the whole thing some context)...
My gut tells me that Pt maybe can slip in under the radar somewhere around here... But need to see possible evidence
Some more fun with quotes II:
“Gold is Money. Everything else is credit”
-- JP Morgan, shareholder of the Private Federal Reserve Bank
Here's some bright news!!!
Click on this yahoo link to see where all America's jobs have gone! (& get your resume ready & spiffy to look at)...
http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/113108/americas-jobs-picture-wsj
I guess R. Kelly was taking Peggy Joseph's advice & thot Obama was going to pay for his gas & mortgage...
Being in Chicago & all...
http://new.music.yahoo.com/blogs/amplifier/89462/r-kelly-hasnt-been-paying-the-mortgage-on-his-massive-mansion/
While you're on your daily errands, don't forget to top off the tank... As well as the one in the:
- lawnmower
- spare gas can
- tractor
- boat
- jr's go-kart
- weedeater
- snow blower
- & while you're at it, might as well just fill a rack of empty coke bottles & make yourself some molotov cocktails... Never know when they may come in handy
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/iea-joins-fed-making-failure-policy-says-additional-spr-releases-possible
I would like to applaud the bears who stood their ground at 1330 and fought off the bulls stampede. Currently the bears are feasting on the bulls from the first wave.
Wow. Just gapped down two handles on the 5 minute chart of SPX.
AT, look @ 30min chart, last 4 or so hours... not so yummy unless you're short.
I got this funny gut feeling this morning inflation is gonna really kick in 2nd half 2011, hope I'm wrong.
Plus the fact that gold and silver have held on to the bulk of todays gains in pretty good. I understand that the CB's aren't happy. So what.
I can see CNBS right now. They were preparing for their Dionysus festival until they noticed the market was getting slapped back down to earth.
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