EURCHF (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 1.1844
rev= 1.2970; mid= 1.2407
The down move (or the running of the euros) into francs has not let up since 2009. Considering Italy is on the verge of imploding the move is probably about to accelerate. Greece is nothing compared to Italy when it comes to net notional CDS outstanding. Italy is looking to ban short selling and we know how that worked out in the US. Pop, pop, pop is the sound of the seams unraveling.
DAX (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 7514.46
rev= 6664.40; mid= 7089.43
The retrace back to the previous high appears to have stalled. Is it time to get worried? It's still above all SMA's. Last week was a bearish thrusting so it still may continue a little higher before taking the elevator down.
56 comments:
@Anon (other thread)
Thanks for that link on the goal... Yeah, hard to call that offsides...
I think I'm just a 'conditioned rat'... I watch so much NFL football (an usually have $$ on it), that I'm conditioned in my mind that every time someone scores, the first thing that pops into my head is whether there are going to be any yellow hankies lying on the field out of view of the TV cameras...
---
@ben
I gotta say I haven't read thru this yet (busy this AM), but it looks like its right up your alley... (in terms of those stacks of hundos)
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/what-american-bank-run-would-look
PS... What makes me laugh, really, is that if that scenario were to occur, probably the peeps holding on to MOST of the paper dollars woul be the drug cartels & "tear our wrists"... lol
Can you say... NWO? :-)
CV,
indeed, we talk a lot about paper but the actual stuff, when it comes to "money", it's scarce, as seen in the document total currency in circulation is only as much as a few trillion.....the stock market is "worth" what? And it is tiny of course, compared to the bond market.
statements like, "my money is in the bank" or "my money is in the market" .......are not true
but anyway, that article, thats the point of holding physical notes, and why I keep doing it, the article also fails to mention in a scenario like that, some (much?) of the 1 quadrillion + outstanding in IOU-ifs will be triggered
Good morning Katy. What are you doing at work so early?
but anyway, that article, thats the point of holding physical notes, and why I keep doing it, the article also fails to mention in a scenario like that, some (much?) of the 1 quadrillion + outstanding in IOU-ifs will be triggered
... That's why I keep holding on to 'goods' (an in this case, I'm referring to foo, h2O, etc. rather than gold or silver... (Nickles actually WORK here too)... :-)
for the 2nd part of that... Basically, I see a lot of defaults (tho I can't for the life of me predict how that might all play out)...
---
Back to the lack of dollars, you have to think that they could just start printing 1,000 & 10,000 notes and shovel them to banks if they wanted to... Stupid, I know (but when have these people NOT done stupid things?)
I suppose if they did that, it woul only be a matter of time before the peeps started questioning the value of the paper itself...
Phase 1: relief that it's out of 401k or electronic balance & in mattress
Phase 2: Scarcity of goods
Phase 3: Price competition (in this case increase) for procurement of goods)
Phase 4: collapse in trust of the paper
---
Probably less than 5% chance of it happening that way (but it HAS happened b4)...
I' see a seizure of 401ks tho b4 that were to happen...
This has become a mudslide moment. Pretty interesting, really, if it didn't have the potential to end so horrifically. It appears certain that the western indebted societies could not repair anything by kicking the can down the road.
I suppose 2012 could also be the Mayan Moment.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-11/credit-ratings-firms-may-have-to-show-eu-data.html
Credit-Ratings Firms May Have to Show EU Data
Credit-ratings companies may be forced to disclose the internal analyses they use when they decide to cut a European Union government’s rating, the region’s financial services commissioner said.
Nations may win the right to check the data used by the companies in advance of downgrades of their sovereign ratings, Michel Barnier said in the text of a speech in Paris speech today. The measures may be included in legislation to rein in the ratings firms, he said.
Ratings companies “occupy a place which is far too important in Europe,” Barnier said. “We are considering compulsory publication of the analysis which leads to modification of a rating and the obligation of conducting a full analysis more regularly.”
Don't you love the smell of desperation in the morning.
Italy is in trouble?
unexpectedly ......
Spains PM is in a corner this morning reminding himself that he told Maria that their plans were "working to the letter"
CV,
I have little doubt in a bank run of that size Heli Ben would become a reality
there would be chaos if something like that happened
if people knew what banks did with their money overnight they'd never put money in the bank.....
thinking though this mornings market move should remain in perspective, it was a straight shot to 1350 basically
http://online.barrons.com/public/page/barrons_econoday.html
Let's see...retail sales are now down 2% for the year.
German retail sales down 2.8% for the year.
Our stock market return 9.3%, is the best for the year in the globe? With our debt problems, we've outperformed Germany?
Going to be an interesting second half.
@Bruce
With our debt problems, we've outperformed Germany?
---
Yeah... That's because we'll probably get the Olympics b4 they will...
"Spains PM is in a corner this morning reminding himself that he told Maria that their plans were "working to the letter"
What happens when you run out of letters?
"What happens when you run out of letters?"
Then you switch over to numbers
Plan number 007 will work
......to the decimal, this time.
They'll need the "dewey decimal system" to index & categorize all the Keynesian programs that they'll put in place to "fix" the system between now & then...
Ritholtz will be sure to break it all down for you and tell you how it's all part of a 'typical recovery'...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/meanwhile-italy
Meanwhile In Italy...
Oops:
* INTESA SANPAOLO SPA SUSPENDED FROM TRADING LIMIT DOWN
* UNICREDIT SUSPENDED FROM TRADING LIMIT DOWN
@Amen Ra
(from that link)...
http://whistleblowerirl.blogspot.com/
---
Now - Who wants to buy some stocks? Step right up!
I unexpectedly made this F****d chart late last night. Oh crap, PrezO is talking... better listen (and believe) what he sez.
@qqqq
Look at the takedown on gld & slv just moments before 11...
They're going to have to start factoring in that these conferences don't actually start until 13 minutes after the scheuled time (it takes that long to change out of golf spikes & into street shoes - I know this for a fact)...
CV
I was just looking at the gold chart to see at what time those moves were made.
We're already in a Wile E. Coyote moment. The only question is when will the market look down and realize it?
@Amen
relax... this isn't the BIG ONE (just yet)...
TOTUS will let us know when it is... He'll say "I'm comin to see you Weezy (I mean 'Elizabeth')...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hcg1SOad7Z8
---
besides - he just friggin said that average Americans should not bother paying any attention to Treasury auctions (yes - he actually said it)... That's a matter that should be handled by 'professional politicians' (yes, he said that too)...
fawning sycophant comments of agreement & adulation coming on Ritholtz & other blogs in 5...4...3...2...
I'm really tired of PrezO saying "what really makes our country great". Another good Oquote... "the public shouldn't worry themselves with what the FED does, they're to busy worring about their jobs and family life" (something like that).
This guy has no clue. I think what he's saying in this press conference... the general public (excluding the rich and banks) are going to get hurt... more. methinks... I'm feeling a flat tax would be the best, even though we'll never see it. This crap about taxing the rich more, means less jobs?... I don't believe it. Show me the proof! Close all the loopholes. I mean isn't this better to use dry ink bucks rather than wet ones?
cv, yeh, I heard that... LOL
what a baffoon
I hope I have this much energy when I'm almost 70... Birthday, Ringo's 71st B'day a few days ago...
@qqqq
He also said ""target those folks"...
So, after all the yap flapping coming from lefty Ritholtz & company (vis-a-vis Giffords), & the use of such language (remember Palin got grilled for it)...
I expect the outrage to start in 5...4...3...2...
or
When the next Republican gets shot, I expect the sound of'crickets' to commence in 5...4...3...2...
@qqqq
Actually - Here's CV's 8 step plan (not my 'policy', but just what I think will happen)...
---
CHOICES
(1) default, and have social unrest
(2) fix structural problems and have social unrest
(3) kick the can
CHOICE #3 SELECTEd... then
(4) kick the can farther
(5) buy a new pair of boots (on credit)
(6) resume can kicking activities
(7) revisit options 1-3
(8) blame it on bush
CV
Sounds like he's trying to convince government employees that their retirement plan money is safe and will get repaid. More and more of your average
American taxpayers have stared to look behind the curtain and are calling out politicians.
But I still can't believe he's telling citizens to ignore Treasury auctions...
CV, 3,4 &6 seem to be the majority, so this will probably be done until the can gets HUGE! Well, it already HUGE, I mean HUGER!
AR, most Govt employees didn't get a raise last go-around. I'm working under a Govt 10yr contract and we haven't seen a raise in 2 years, but, seems I get more overtime when working, ... go figure.
I'm learning obamanomics... I need to go get my free breakfast in the hotel I'm staying at (I paid $75 last night for the room... the breakfast is free today, that's all I'm looking at so I feel better now :))
@Amen (12:10)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZR64EF3OpA
cv, lol, I remember when I was young... that scene really scared me... well, until the banker was exposed.
Knew this was coming: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cisco-may-cut-5000-jobs-analyst-says-2011-07-11
Cisco may cut 5,000 jobs, analyst says
By Benjamin Pimentel, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Cisco Systems Inc. may cut 5,000 jobs in order to meet a target of reducing annual expenses by roughly $1 billion, an analyst said Monday.
Shares of Cisco fell 2.4% to $15.36 as analyst Brian Marshall of Gleacher & Co. said in a note that the networking-gear giant “could initiate one of its largest reduction-in-workforces in August by eliminating approximately 5,000 jobs.”
That’s about 7% of the company’s 73,400 employees as of April, Marshall said.
“While this is a difficult decision to make, in our view, it is required in order to maintain the ‘competitiveness’ of Cisco going forward,” he added.
A Cisco spokeswoman reaffirmed the company’s statement during its third-quarter earnings call that it “will take out $1 billion in cost from our fiscal year 2012 expense run-rate out as part of our efforts to streamline company operations, including a planned reduction in workforce.”
SPX new LOD, dip buyers ready to pull the trigger?
ZH seems to have above average topics today...
What it will take is a belated recognition by Germany that this crisis is not a morality tale contrasting virtuous, thrifty Teutons, with feckless Greco-Latins and Guinness-befuddled Celts, but rather a North-South structural crisis caused by the inherent workings of monetary union.
The implications of this are profound. Germany must now be willing either to buy or guarantee Spanish and Italian debt, and in doing so to cross the Rubicon to fiscal and political union, or accept that EMU must break up with calamitous consequences for German foreign policy. Large matters, beyond the intellectual vision of Germany's current leaders.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8628939/Italy-and-Spain-must-pray-for-a-miracle.html
QQQQ
Keeping an eye on the clock as the Ckt Brkr cut off time is approaching muy rapido.
AR, SPX closing in on the 50 & 100 daily SMA, maybe we just plow right thru it this week, who knows... was looking at SPX weekly chart on your site, right shoulder forming now. 3LB still red, albeit small, but still red.
A traveler wandering on an island inhabited entirely by cannibals comes upon a butcher shop. This shop specialized in human brains differentiated according to source. The sign in the shop read:
Artists' Brains $9/lb
Philosophers' Brains $12/lb
Scientists' Brains $15/lb
Economists' Brains $19/lb
Upon reading the sign, the traveler noted, "My, those economists' brains must be popular!" To which the butcher replied, "Are you kidding! Do you have any idea how many economists you have to kill to get a pound of brains?!"
QQQQ
LMAO
"...As you can see corporate America has lost its direction. They have become creatures of internationalism, participating in the extinction of the US and its world reserve currency, the dollar. The culture in corporate America is decidedly corruption augmented by government’s drive to implement corporate fascism very reminiscent of Germany and Italy in the 1930s, which was a trial run for today’s government.
The world’s problem is debt – too much of it. Corporate America, particularly Wall Street, thinks debt creation can go on indefinitely as they continue to loot America. The US economy is doing a slow motion swan dive and the corporatists do not care because they believe they’ll become part of this new World Order. What they do not understand is they are stuck in neutral, as they proceed with their looting operations. Worse yet all, or almost alll of the gold belonging to America citizens is gone. The US dollar is like so many other fiat currencies. People often ask, what currency should be in and the simple answer is none, except to function from month-to-month. The record is there one for all to see, all currencies have on average lost value versus gold and silver for 11 straight years. What more can be expected as deficits for all countries mount year after year? This is why almost all governments are trapped. They have to continue to create money and credit or their economies will collapse. The problems are still all there. Greece and the other five lame ducks, the euro and the EU. The European banking system is still staring over the abyss. We have no debt extension. 4% of the SPR has been sold with no net effect on the oil price or availability. To refill the salt domes will be very costly, while in the meantime government has more money to waste. While all this transpires the military industrial complex is laughing all the way to the bank..."
"...The big question is why hasn’t government and the Fed tried to solve the economic situation? The answer is they have no intention of doing so, because they want the public on their knees economically and financially so they can impose World Government. We have news for them, this time they are going to lose and lose it all. Yes, there is going to be a great war or a series of wars you won’t escape that. These criminals are not going down without a fight and it will be a very nasty struggle.
The banker situation in Greece, that is the rape and looting of the country, is a set piece of what bankers intend to do in all countries.
As we enter the twilight of the American nation we have never been so overwhelmed by the servile incompetence of Congress and its entourage of bureaucrats. We call them team A and team B. As each administration changes the participants change, but their length of service lingers on for many years. They represent the same masters who control them from behind the scenes with the same mission, but with slightly different approaches in order to make it seem change is being made. A great many of these servants from academia although very bright, never had an original thought in their life, never have worked in the business world and all are disciples of John Maynard Keyes and his corporatist fascist philosophy. Is it any wonder our nation is in the state it is in?..."
http://www.blacklistednews.com/Mounting_Public_Debt._The_Looting_of_Federal_Pensions%2C_Social_Security_and_Medicare/14599/0/0/0/Y/M.html
ibid.
But I still can't believe he's telling citizens to ignore Treasury auctions...
Nothing peeks my curiosity more quickly than an elected straw man telling me to ignore something of import.
@Bruce
"The implications of this are profound. Germany must now be willing either to buy or guarantee Spanish and Italian debt"
No they don't... They just need to convince the Chinese to buy that debt (& if they don't, the Germans won't buy or sell them shit)...
ibid,
If I remember correctly, we may not have had WW2 if the stock market didn't crash in 1929. The whole world was in a depression afterwards. Hitler lost in the German elections but for some strange reason, he was voted in as Chancellor, which led to him becoming top dog shortly after, then, well you know the rest. What's in our future?
@Anon
We have news for them, this time they are going to lose and lose it all. Yes, there is going to be a great war or a series of wars you won’t escape that. These criminals are not going down without a fight and it will be a very nasty struggle
Class struggle, pure & simple...
World CIVIL war (now ain't that a hoot)?
AS SOON AS the clock hit 14:30 TICKS went negative. HARD. A big FU to the circuit breaker.
AR, they're going to protect the 50-100SMA, they must, they will, they print!
@QQQQ
The whole world was in a depression afterwards. Hitler lost in the German elections but for some strange reason, he was voted in as Chancellor, which led to him becoming top dog shortly after
He basically blamed the "jew bankers" as being at the root of the problem (and the idea, true or not, was a winning one for peeps needing a way out)...
Call me 'anti-semitic' for reciting history... Hell, I could go back to Ivanhoe, or Pontius Pilate if you need me to...
Here come the dip buyers thinking that was the bottom.
cv, yeh, I think he impossed a boykott (german) on all jewish businesses. Our govt is bascially doing the same to US small business with obamacare, tax loopholes for big business, higher commodity prices, etc...
@qqqq
Yeah... I want to be careful here... But also want to point out facts that they on't teach you in franklin 411's "state sponsored education indoctrination"...
History has a way of rhyming...
@qqqq
Our govt is bascially doing the same to US small business with obamacare, tax loopholes for big business, higher commodity prices, etc...
I'd also be careful to state it in a way that "gov is doing"... All they really do is erect hoops & hurdles... It's up to the market to eventually tell them how stupid it all is...
Unless you're Krugman or Ritholtz tho... Then it seems like a good idea (because it gets you invited to the best parties in East Egg)...
http://theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly/Watching_A_Flatlining_Economy
fuller link, for above 'snip' ..
ibid.
I see the dip buyers are giving it that one last try...
MUST..NOT...TAKE...OUT...DAYS..LOW...IN..FINAL..TEN...MINUTES
AA consensus $0.34, actual $0.28 (vs $0.13 last year). Missed lowered expectations.
AA consensus $0.34, actual $0.28
Easy explanation...
'Transitory' reduction in CAN KICKING needs whilst debt ceiling issue is in limbo...
Expect 'positive guidance' in the conference call...
CV
But of course...
CV
Did you notice last week when banks earnings were being revised lower? Banks called up a few analysts and told them to bring it down. So instead of missing earnings by 10-20% the miss will be closer to 2-3%.
Post a Comment