A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Creditcane™: Just because you closed off the lows doesn't make it safe.
SPXBearish short day (was a long day at first). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed SMA(21) & SMA(144). Holding above trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Failed the 38.2% minor retrace (1314.25). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1353.22). QE2infinity.
DXYBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above the 61.8% minor retrace (74.94). Holding SMA(21). Holding its weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 74.79).
VIXBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (21.67). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.32). Escaped from the "no fear" zone.
GOLDBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (1594.90). Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1585.50). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.
EURCHFDoji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (1.1467). Failing all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.1589). Swiss Central Bank couldn't take it anymore.
JNKBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(233). Failed its 50.0% retrace (40.00). Below trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.39).
10YR YIELDBullish long day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (29.56). Further below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.97).
WTIBearish long day. Held SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (96.96). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 91.38).
SILVERBullish short day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the upper trend line. Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (40.69). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 38.15).
BKXBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (46.19). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 48.32). Jaws and the piranhas both smell the blood in the water.
HYG/LQDBullish short day. Held SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% retrace (0.8201). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8332).
IT HAS BEGUN. BE WARNED.
22 comments:
@Amen (other thread)
What is it with the ten handle rule?
---
That's girls softball... You're getting your sports mixed up...
It doesn't get much better than this on the comedy front...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/afternoon-humor-dick-boves-histoerical-bank-america-price-targets
That is, of course, assuming you exclude Ritholtz & his "typical recoveries" from the argument...
Anyone figure out what movie that dolphin song is from? ;-)
I'm not sure if there was something wrong with my terminal quotes, but before I left work, it looked like thirty-year swap spreads were negative. It also looked like the long bond drained today, despite the equity carnage (again, just a quick glance before I got the F out of there, so I could have seen it wrong).
Certainly, absent the things I noted above, the credit markets look like they might be breaking. There is a lot of fear Re: downgrade, which S&P says they will do even if the debt ceiling is raised. They are saber-rattling, but they may try to push a political agenda by actually carrying through. I suspect a lot of fixed income mandates will be nullified if the ratings agencies try to do what they should have done ten years ago. I wonder if the resulting portfolio flux could dislocate credit markets, briefly.
The whole News Corp thing is amusing me, at the moment. It is like the public just NEEDS SOME REASON to attack a corporation and the politicians are more than willing to prod executives 10 layers of abstraction from the crime to the walk of shame in public. Why? To win political support (briefly) from an increasingly disenfranchised public. They need to be distracted more frequently now that their lives have, once again, become an order of magnitude shittier.
Somehow, I have a gut feeling that this whole thing will blow over and the fundamentals will support spread tightening on the news corp debentures, but I don't have the courage to close me eyes and take a punt--equity or fixed income.
-matt
@Amen (8:14)
off the top of my head either...
-flipper
OR
-the big blue
@Matthew:
"The whole News Corp thing is amusing me, at the moment. It is like the public just NEEDS SOME REASON to attack a corporation and the politicians are more than willing to prod executives 10 layers of abstraction from the crime to the walk of shame in public. Why? To win political support (briefly) from an increasingly disenfranchised public. They need to be distracted more frequently now that their lives have, once again, become an order of magnitude shittier."
As Hoffer has asked me..."Did we go to the same school in different places?"
I couldn't have said that any better (the above.)
Random Question For CV...
A Fitness question.
When I was "at home" working, I could hit the gym anytime mid-day and it was cool. I had plenty of energy to work out. Now, I can only really work out in the late afternoon....4-5 PM. My weekly workout is 62/38 weight lifting vs. core/aerobic.
I've been finding myself 'lacking the energy' for the weight lifting days. This last week, I tried a 'pre workout' mix...it's called "Neuro Core" form MuscleTech. The stuff is sort of crazy. I take a little less the minimum and it gives me pretty good energy and endurance... I can get in a FULL and robust 60-70 minutes of weights.
I just wonder if there's any bizarre side affects to these things. It actually advises to take this shit NO MORE than 6 months in a row...which sort of makes me nervous.
Any feedback you might have on this sort of thing would be interesting to me.
Thanks. AT.
Anyone else think it's weird that we've been talking about this 1295 level for several weeks now...and it appears to still be the 'battle zone' for bulls and bears.
I like the advice of "not trading" the S&P500 until it can break of this wide range...
Also for CV...
"The Bet"
On Tiger Woods and Winning Majors...
I think we need to make the bet more "time relevant."
i.e. How many Majors will Tiger win by the end of the 2013? 2014? 2015?
I say he cannot win ONE Major by the end of 2013. Alternatively, I would also bet that he cannot win TWO Majors by 2015.
Given that he's the favorite already to win the 2012 Masters at 6:1 and most likely a top favorite (albeit in the distant future) to win most of the major events in 2012 or 2013, I'd have to ask for "even" odds on the "WIN NONE" by 2013 bet.
I think winning two majors will be much tougher by 2015 and i would expect you to ask for some 'odds' on such a bet. I'd be willing to lay 1.5:1 against that outcome.
I'd give you the option on either one of those bets. The most I'd be willing to lose is a roll of 1964 Kennedys on such a silly thing that covers so much time.
But, it's a bet I'd be happy to make with you.
CV
Hee hee. Not even in the ballpark.
--------------------------
Andy
1296.20 is the minor 50.0% retrace (of the 0%-38.2% range). It's also one of the 18's.
given the number of comments this BI article got, probably worth pointing it out...
http://www.businessinsider.com/wynn-ceo-steve-wynn-conference-call-transcript-obama-2011-7
pretty tough comments from a Democratic business leader.
Here's a new game we can all pick up...
Kung fu volleyball:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ljb6Mne8Mfc
It seems pretty easy to play and learn.
Andy T
Reminds me of hackey sack.
@Andy T (8:47)
Off the top of my dome... I know MUSCLE TECH (but I'm unfamiliar with "Neuro Core" specifically as a product)...
My first guess (without really looking), is that it contains either (or all) of:
- a high potency B-complex active ingredient
- some kind of ramped creatine phosphate dosage
- or synthetic "ephedreine" component (which is something that put MUSCLE TECH on the map, many moons ago)
If I'm right... NONE of the above are particularly 'dangerous' (per se)... Unless you use the product like a total dick (which - unfortunately - many Americans have done in the past)...
Bottom line (until I can 'look closer')... These days, a person could have a wheat grass, quinoa, arugula, & watermelon diet, & it would be tough to pass a 'piss sample' by the FdA (dog food - I mean REAL ACTUAL dog food [for human consumption] MUST pass FdA approval)... So go figure...
My 30 years of "non-existent" experience in these things is the best way to test something is to do it for about 3 weeks & then go off of it (& try to notice the performance drop-off)... Then repeat... again & again...
Sooner or later, you figure out the 'enhancement' effects (without really risking killing yourself)...
@Andy T
darren clarke (who chain smokes, basically just goofs around, has never won a major, & is 42)...
Just won the British Open...
Tiger is what? 36?
F-in-A... Just count the number of times he'll play at:
- Augusta
- Hoylake
- St. Andrews
- Pebble
- & Torrey Pines between now & then
he's got 4 more in him...
@AndyT, Re: Exercise
I periodically walk into the weight room, do a set, and then walk out due to fatigue. I have never really figured out what causes it. It could be diet, sleep, or just general wear and tear catching up with me.
I never have this problem with cardio, but it does happen with strength training. I find that if I just take a few days off, it makes everything better. The body can only take so much.
@Matthew
I hate to say it... But what you're describing there (fatigue in stength training vs. no real fatigue in cardio)... usually has to do with a dropoff in testosterone levels...
That can easily be remedied...
Just read Ritholtz & Friends for a few days...
Your testosterone & blood pressure ought to go up... If NOT... You might be turning gay & actually grow tits within a few months (so take care of that - it's happened to former posters on this blog)...
"Your testosterone & blood pressure ought to go up... If NOT... You might be turning gay & actually grow tits within a few months (so take care of that - it's happened to former posters on this blog)..."
Dude. That's really, really funny there.
@matthew.
go into a GNC store and pick up a canister of that NeuroCore shit....give that a whirl on min. dosage.
I felt like the Incredible Hulk for about 60-90 minutes this late afternoon.
The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy
@cv.
He very well might have 4 more in him in the next 10-15 years ....
But, if he wins ONE Master in the next few years...grabs a PGA here or there in the next decade....and then hits 7-7-7 Slot Machine at age 45 in some random British OPEN....will that really be a "win" for Tiger Woods. Will he be celebrated for crawling to Jack's record?
This dude was supposed to destroy the record books. In some respects he has....but if it takes him the next decade to win a few Majors, it's going to feel a little hallow.
I think the next few years decides this guy's ULTIMATE place in golf history.
If he can win a few majors in the next few years, he can legitimately claim to being the "BEST EVER."
If not, there will be the following caveat:
"Tiger Woods kicked some ass against a second tier group of guys, only occasionally finding tough competition when a few guys got hot. He opened peoples 'eyes' to what was possible. Upon doing so, he unleashed massive amounts of talent just a decade behind him. The talent and competition that emerged was so rich that he was never able to regain top status. On top of that, it was revealed that his workout routine, along with possible use of HGH, contributed to an extra-ordinary amount of injuries and stress on his body that compounded his problems. He was never the same when his body broke."
This guy I read, at "Houston's Clear Thinkers" has been on to Tiger for a long time....
http://blog.kir.com/archives/2010/07/will_tiger_catc.asp
I just don't think he can fully bounce back.
minor 18's stuff...
Since the beginning of the year, 29 weeks, 12 weeks have traded across 1296 (41%).
ALL weeks since the start of 2011 have traded between 18's 1260-1332 at some point in time, 1296 is 50% fib.
1350
....1341
1332
...1323
1314
...1305 you are here
1296
...1287
1278
...1269
1260
The 1st time SPX traded through 1296 was MAR-99 and it has the most monthly up volume on the volume-price indicator since. Minor 18's 1152 comes in 2nd.
Major 18's
1456
1375 (almost MAY-11)
you are here
1244 DEC-10
1112 NOV-09
1006 AUG-09
900 MAY-09
794 MAR-09
687 MAR-09
Once a new higher major 18 number was reached, it hasn't traded across the lower major 18 number since Mar-09. A breakout above 1375 could take us near 1456. A breakdown below 1244 could take us to near 1112.
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