AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.


"I let that bull get away. Now what will I eat?"

Creditcane™: I'll bet that didn't feel like the market closed higher. Did it?


SPX
Inverted hammer day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(55). Holding above trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Holding above the 38.2% minor retrace (1312.78). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1307.41). QE2infinity. Also still below the daily 3LB mid.



DXY
Bearish long day (confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed the 38.2% retrace (75.83). Tested and held SMA(21). Held its weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 74.79).



VIX
Bullish short day (another hanging man freed). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Above its 61.8% minor retrace (18.56). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.32). Escaped out of the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (1570.70). Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1480.90). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURCHF
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (1.1643). Failing all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.1894).



JNK
Spinning top day (ugly confirmation of morning star). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing SMA(233). Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (40.00). Below trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.39).



10YR YIELD
Bearish engulfing day (in a downtrend no less). Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (29.56). Further below the upper trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 31.97).



WTI
Bullish short day (confirmed bullish engulfing). Held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (97.62). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 91.02).



SILVER
Bullish long day. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still below the upper trend line. Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (37.94). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 33.60).



BKX
Spinning top day (not a good morning star confirmation). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (47.20). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 46.64).



HYG/LQD
Bullish engulfing day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (0.8128). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8332).



TLT
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above all SMA's. Trading above its upper trend line. Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (97.39). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 95.37).




IT HAS BEGUN. BE WARNED.

23 comments:

ben22 said...

For fellow Phi/Fibo fans, in case you missed it:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/07/nature-by-numbers/

ben22 said...

wanted to share this chart that was over at Cobra's intraday, the person that put it together (name on chart in the blue letters) has public charts on stock charts for those interested

ben22 said...

oops, here's the chart

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/download/file.php?id=4938&mode=view

Andy T said...

Love the Fibo stuff ben22....thanks.

Andy T said...

Dude?

Moon Cycle theory?

WTF.

ben22 said...

Andy,

nope, I do not totally dismiss people like Paul Macrae Montgomery

the moon has an impact on people, just as the sun does. If you like fibo and phi you must then not dismiss moon cycle theory. After all, the dimensions of the Earth and the Moon are in a Phi relationship that forms a Golden Triangle. The shape of the universe itself is a dodecahedron based on Phi.

certain times the moon is highly correlated with markets, such as the chart above starting from the Feb high as we entered the triangle

here are some recent comments from him I lifted from, of all places, CNBC:

".....Montgomery argues, the moon can be a very strong predictor for how investors will behave and thus how they will move the markets.

“Those non-skeptics who readily embrace lunar cycles must realize that this phenomenon has been working so precisely lately only because there currently is an unprecedented amount of fear and uncertainty with respect to the world’s investment markets,” he wrote recently in his newsletter. Under these conditions,” he continued, “the cerebral cortex cedes much behavioral control to the primitive basal ganglia—wherein neural voltages matter more than earnings and interest rates.”

“Usually (lunar cycles) show up fairly regularly in the commodities markets. In the stock and bond markets, they’re best just ignored. They’re just noise,” he said in an interview. “Occasionally, when the markets get very commoditized and they’re whipping around and are very highly emotional…there’s a lot of fear and everybody remembers 2008. In these highly emotional, irrational times in the marketplace, non-rational indicators start to show up in the price structure.”

so, you know, not to write a novel about it, but I guess from here you just watch a few days before and after the 15th....we'll see if it's just a fail at this point, I'm wondering if this continues until the X wave is complete.

Andy T said...

@ben22

It's interesting stuff for sure. I just had never read about it before or seen it applied.

cv said...

@ben

I always knew you were a closet 'moonie' (lol)

http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=sun+yung+moon&view=detail&id=D4E7A6F3E0CA5C89A6A881C7C68487AD7F49F08E&first=0&FORM=IDFRIR

cv said...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_Myung_Moon

James Coburn said...

"you're all a bunch of candy asses and jesus freaks"...

Matthew said...

Maybe the moon caused the homeless guy to moon and sun me as I exited the interstate highway this afternoon--a sight that has caused me to reconsider the path I take home tomorrow.

Despite what was a very quiet early-week in credit markets (owing to both the summer vacationing and the routing in risk assets), I would give credit a clean bill of health (as far as trading goes). I have definitely seen new issues pricing at levels that I consider to be rich in many instances. Given the European backdrop and all of the posturing in Washington, I think it is somewhat remarkable. Fixed income investors are not pricing, for a second, any chance of either 1) anything untoward from Uncle Sam or 2) any kind of unscripted losses for private investors in failing sovereigns. I generally think that the fixed income investors are right to think that governments will throw their constituents under the bus.

Elton John said...

"Jesus freaks
Out in the street
handing tickets out for God"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBS-fGJUVNY

cv said...

I want to se Ritholtz once... ONCE...

Come weave a thread quilt like that (off the top of his dome)... after having parked his lard ass in a chair for about 20 seconds of contemplation...

Not to mention that he just taught 3 straight classes (which, of course, he didn't)... He couldn't... because he was too busy writing some crappy piece for WaPo while some illegal alien was scrubbing barnacles off his yacht!

cv said...

I don't have to stop there with the Elton John/Jesus references...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54CK8p-pDAU

ben22 said...

closet moonie, that's hilarious

Sing along with Mitch said...

Levon wears his war wound like a crown
He calls his child Jesus
`Cause he likes the name
And he sends him to the finest school in town

Levon, Levon likes his money
He makes a lot they say
Spends his days counting
In a garage by the motorway

He was born a pauper to a pawn on a Christmas day
When the New York Times said God is dead
And the war's begun
Alvin Tostig has a son today

And he shall be Levon
And he shall be a good man
And he shall be Levon
In tradition with the family plan
And he shall be Levon
And he shall be a good man
He shall be Levon

Levon sells cartoon balloons in town
His family business thrives
Jesus blows up balloons all day
Sits on the porch swing watching them fly

And Jesus, he wants to go to Venus
Leaving Levon far behind
Take a balloon and go sailing
While Levon, Levon slowly dies

He was born a pauper to a pawn on a Christmas day
When the New York Times said God is dead
And the war's begun
Alvin Tostig has a son today

And he shall be Levon
And he shall be a good man
And he shall be Levon
In tradition with the family plan
And he shall be Levon
And he shall be a good man
He shall be Levon
And he shall be a good man
And he shall be a Levon
In tradition of the family plan
And he shall be a Levon
And he shall be a good man
He shall be Levon
And he shall be Levon

Matthew said...

I want to see RitzCracker once... ONCE...

Shut up.

Raymond Babbitt said...

Time for Wapner...

cv said...

After all... It's always 4PM somewhere...

Andy T said...

I'm still waiting for Fuzzy Wuzzy BR to expalain any ramifications there were to his "Roger Ailes is going to be Indicted Next week" post. Also, I'm waiting for some kind of mea culpa on the post where he wrote that Palin caused the Giffords Shooting because of her 'heated rhetoric.'

Those were his two most brazen posts of the last year...and they were both wrong.

Oh well.

He's done OK by it all .... penning columns for the WaPO now....

cv said...

@Andy (11:05)

outrage coming in 5...4...3...2...

---

http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2011/07/morning-corner-71111.html?showComment=1310400276859#c7885748473753112007

AmenRa said...

USDJPY is in the danger area.

cv said...

@Amen (12:31)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RG0ochx16Dg

or... less classic, but classic nonetheless... (preferred by CV)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8rZWw9HE7o

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