A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Probably should be the crying bear but keeping the bulls in check is worth a dance.
Creditcane™: Still warming the the car for the trip I'm about to take you on.
SPXBullish short day (failed to confirm bearish harami..again). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Failing trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Holding well above the 61.8% retrace#1 (1273.65). The secondary retraces aren't in play…yet. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1296.67). QE2infinity.
DXYBullish long day (day 2 of three white soldiers). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held the 61.8% retrace#2 (74.94). Back above SMA(21). Held its weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 73.78).
VIXInverted hammer day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Holding above its 0.0% retrace#1 (15.79). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.32). Extradited back to the "no fear" zone.
GOLDBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Easily held its 38.2% retrace#1 (1489.26) and held its 50.0% retrace#2 (1522.13). Tested and held SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.30). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.
EURUSDBearish long day (day 2 of three black crows). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Failing its 61.8% retrace#2 (1.4357). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4580).
EURCHFBearish long day (see EURUSD). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace#2 (1.2044). Tested and failed its SMA(21). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1.2304).
JNKDoji day (confirmed questionable hanging man). Midpoint above EMA(10). Held SMA(233). Failing its 61.8%% retrace#1 (40.20). Failing trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.41).
10YR YIELDSpinning top day. Failed SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed its 38.2% retrace#1 (31.19). Still above the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 29.09).
WTIBearish thrusting day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace#1 (97.75). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 90.61).
SILVERSpinning top day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still below the upper trend line. Tested and held its 61.8% retrace#1 (35.20). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.88).
BKXHammer day (confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing SMA(55). Failing its 61.8% retrace#1 (48.82). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 46.64).
HYG/LQDHanging man day for the 3rd time. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% retrace#1 (0.8312). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8146).
IT HAS BEGUN. BE WARNED.
27 comments:
Andy on your 5th slide from last update (i.e. June 19th reprint):
I still like this count.
a was 17 days
b was 34 days
c is ongoing and thus far at 44 days
within c we have
-a- was 12 days
-b- was 9 days
-c- was 12 days
-d- is thus far 11 days
if a+b = c in terms of time, we should be looking at the end of next week (July 15th) as the 51st day (obviously give or take a couple especially with 55 days close by.
using 1150 as the top of w wave we have the .618 of it off 1040 at 1337.
1341 also fits in nicely with Q's series of 18's and 9's.
Adjusting the labels on the c wave and looking at it as a flat also is interesting (forgive labels here).
with -a-
(a) was 52 (1370-1318)
(b)was 23 (1318-1341, near .5 retrace)
(c) was 76 (1341-1265, near 1.5 of a)
right now in -b-
(a) was 33 (1265-1298)
(b) was 40 (1298-1258) 1.236 of (a)
(c) was 83 (1258 to current 1337-1341 area) which is near 2.618 of (a)
Looking at -c- in terms of time -a- was 29 days, -b- was/is 14 days. If we are to have a+b=c in terms of time, we are looking at another 7-8 days to finish the -c- within proposed c.
a being 105
b being close to .786 of it thus far at 1341
having c = a produces 1236, 1.236 of a produces 1211
Going down 105-130 to finish off your "x" wave in the next 7-8 days would certainly rattle a few cages.
Time will tell.
mcHappy.
Will need to look at this in closer detail. I'm pretty sure that c-wave has finished and we're in a d-wave now....it's either the d-wave that will take us to new highs (expanding triangle) or a d-wave that will stall out and look like a 'right shoulder' of a H&S formation.
I really like the first slide of the last update.
Ra-
"Must have the precious."
Classic in re: Gold.
Not sure how anyone can be that short Gold with such a pronounced and perfect trend channel the last several months.
There will come a time to get really short Gold...but, I'd rather wait.
Andy T
It was that or "It's so fluffy!"
AT,
the first slide is the money shot I think as well, I like the fact that the two X waves have alternation, expanding vs. neutral, that seems to be logical or the right "look" to me....I think other technical evidence supports it as well.
The Z wave after the expanding triangle, assuming that plays out, will likely be a lot less trendy than the Y wave. I suppose from the psychology standpoint thats funny and fitting. Since 2009 you've heard over and over again "it's a stock pickers market".....but that's not really so, picking most stocks since 2009 has been right, in the Z wave selection will likely be far more important. so the saying will truly apply. .....on the very last leg of the rally.....
also expressed similar thoughts recently about the gold channel and shorting it here, that channel is textbook, just not seeing that trade.
"All my shots are money shots"
@ben22@McHappy@Andy
don't short gold... EVER (or, lets say until it goes hyperbolic)...
End of story
Added SPX weekly chart with new fibonacci info. The 38.2% (1272.18) was bested when the week ending 6/24/11 closed at 1268.45. We know what happened the following week (arrgghh). Since last weeks high didn't take out the previous high then that might be the fibonacci high that was hidden. IMHO.
& even if it goes hyperbolic...
There's no business shorting it... At that point you should (if you played ur cards right) own bricks upon bricks of "the precious"...
Just trade a few bars for something useful...
The Goldman & JPM boys will be buying Ukranian hookers & blow with it, but sensible people around here ought 2 find a more practical alternative...
@Amen
I'm going to require you to indulge me with a GLvsSLV chart here in a few weeks...
Not yet... I'll let you kno when...
As you know... CV's "Trade" (as state for the past 2 months now, & still stands... Is arbitraging silver into gold)...
For now... ("Now" will likely last another 12-18 months)
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-took-the-biggest-st-omo-loan-2011-7
Is Credit Suisse even a U.S. Bank? how is it they they get to take down 45BN at one time?
Goldman Sachs borrowing a ton on the last day of the year is easy to imagine if you're in the commodities business...
there's tons of 'ad valorem' and LIFO trades that set up in the oil business in late December where, if you have the cash, you can do one month 'rolls' to finance other people at year end. I get that one...
Credit Suisse taking down 45bn in mid-August???
Don't know about that.
Andy/Ben
I just checked Neely's Trading Service. With everything going on in my life I actually forgot about it this afternoon after getting the forecasts earlier. Seems I have a bit of a hybrid count going with Andy's June 19th count and Neely i.e. Andy's x wave with Neely's near term destination.
Anyways, thanks for your insights, gents.
mcHappy,
FWIW, I'm not real excited about Neely's count ... it's not often that I doubt his work, but I'm just not so sure. Given his major recounting of something that occurred a few years ago, I'm not sure if he's so sure of himself either.
Maybe he's right ... I just wouldn't bet much money on it this two seconds.
the count he presented today was better than the other one he was showing with the big down D wave.....the lower high faker on the C wave is interesting but I'm not in love with that count either, it's all just taking longer.....ya know.
big triangles try your patience, decade length triangles in particular.
Andy 9:50
Very much agreed. There is still one more push higher to come in to the fall, imo.
A little fundamental spin will then show the banks imploding (BAC $8.5B hit with about $1B I believe in loss reserve for the quarter - yikes) and Greece back to the trough along with new Euro worries.
Not sure how many people watched the U.S. Women's World cup game today....I did...cuz' it was a slow day in the office...but I think any harsh criticism of the team is a little unwarranted. The back line looked a bit slow for sure....but that U.S. team absolutely "lit up" the other goal...they just missed a ton of chances by a very small margin...they could have easily scored 4 goals today.
And, besides...the U.S. has a goalie named "HOPE SOLO" .... winning.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cblJ9SUMoM0&feature=related
@ben22
yeah, decades long triangles sort of "suck."
@Andy T
"I just wouldn't bet much money on it this two seconds..."
Want "SURER" things? (CV is here to help)...
---
Sure #1
The NFL will resolve the labor dispute (and the REGUALR season will begin on time)... You can thank Barry Ritholtz'z LAWYER friend for drawing things out until the 11th hour (as I said from day one)... They BILL by the hour (or have you forgotten)... an they like their cash...
Sure #2
Take the SAINTS (& the points) vs. Green Bay on opening Thursday...
ALSO... Take the Ravens, Colts (sorry Texans), & New York Giants (on the 10th anniversary of 9/11, in Washington)...
Might as well parlay all of the above...
My gift to you...
Disregard the June 27 pop gun I said at the beginning. I missed the bottom. I swear sometimes I have aixelsyd.
@Andy
I watched the US vs. Sweden... But sorry... I have a different take...
They fucking choked... If you miss that many times in basically an open net then you basically are a C-H-O-K-E artist...
They win the "Aurora Snow" medal (in close proximity to Obama's Reeses PIECE prize)...
---
What was even more hilarious was having Brandi Chastain in the studio... My god... I hope they don't call on her to give the Sunday pep talk vs. Brazil... She was basically saying that it woul be the most "nerve racking game in the HISTORY OF THE WORLd"!!!!
Lighten up bitchez! (they're too full of themselves)...
...all I can say (to US Women's soccer) is...
Tell your sad story to:
Buzz Schneider... Tell it to Mark Johnson... Tell it to Mike Eruzione... Tell it to Jim Craig... Tell it to Herb Brooks...
Bottom line?
They need a little less media darling liberal poodle party friggin candyassing... & a little more of this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9AajQn7b18
Disregard all I typed this evening!
Inability to sleep is at least letting me catch up on some studying.
@AAIP
(more - from 8:18 yesterday)...
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http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bidders-30-million-barrels-strategic-petroleum-reserve-disclosed-jp-morgan-requests-158-mill
So basically now, those detroit warehouses are now (as Jed Clampett would say) 'a bubblin crude'...
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Now all that's needed would be a COBALT-60 detonation in shallow center field of COMERICA PARK...
Maybe they could schedule it for between games of a doubleheader... Let's see... they have to play a 4 game homestand vs. the Angels at the end of this month... If one game gets rained out, u never kno!
or also... as Jed Clampett might say...
"CALIFORNIUM" is the place you oughtta be... So they loaded up the truck & they moved to BEVERLY...
It's bad enough to push the market higher during the day on no volume but will they please stop the extreme moves in the overnight session.
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