Good Evening All,
Hope everyone had a fantastic weekend.
I took a few extra pages here to look at the Dollar Index, which put in another miserable performance last week. It's truly been a horrible market as the "Bernank" keeps giving the "all clear" for perpetual pounding. It has the look of market that will eventually take out the 2008 lows at 70.70 and will likely "grind" lower over the next year. Some sort of "inflection" into the 2012 Election would seem appropriate.
The S&P 500 "call" from last Sunday night ended up being pretty decent as we did easily take out 1344. I still see 1367-1380 as providing resistance for this week as the "inverted Head and Shoulder" crowd gets tested out a bit this week.
In regard to Gold and Silver specifically: those markets appear in need of either a serious "blow off" top move or capitulation (human sacrifice) on the part of whomever the large fund is that remains short those markets. When these moves complete, we will certainly find out there was someone short a bunch of Silver calls or something similar. Essentially, we should be on the lookout for a bankruptcy or wipeout of some kind, a la SemGroup with the Crude Market in 2008.
Market Commentary 1May11
26 comments:
Nice, silver just dropped 6 bucks in a few minutes....yeah...it's getting much more volatile now....
That kind of action where the market can move 10% over night within a few minutes should be all the warning people need that..."dabbling" in metals right now is playing with fire.
Andy T
I was about to say something about the move in silver. Damn near a 10% drop with light volume.
I remember someone saying this chart looks bubblicous a few days ago, although the April high price then wasn't as high as it is now... are you surprised?
anyone short silver?... I'm not :(
silver bubble?
qqqqtrader:
I'm not short Silver, though I've sold the "junk" at an average price of $40/oz in the last two months. It feels a lot like the Wheat market did a few years ago...I need to look at that chart again.
Still feels like we have one more blow-off-y move to come, but who knows...maybe someone did go bust last week...
I have May 290 AGQ puts that I bought on Friday. Just 5, but enought to may my Monday a pretty good one I think. I hope some of this move holds overnight :-)
So happy that I obviously can't spell anymore. whoops.
Libyans burn UK, Italy missions after NATO strike
@jenn.
That happens...I can't spell and type anymore either....
~~~~~
File this one under "other super important things"....
They now have Alcohol infused Whip Cream. At this party last night, we had Jell-O shots with said whip cream. That's how we roll in the redneck 'burbs....
qqqq@10.42.
Yeah, that's becoming a mess....
Bin Laden been killed?
yeah. that's the "news" for sure.
That's big news....
I can't believe it's take 11 years, but nice to see that guy is finally gone.
SPX up, prolly taking out my 1375 target already
Actually AT, I thought he was already dead but yeh, glad he won't be around anymore.
Where's my picture of the crying bear because shorts are going to get slaughtered. Sheesh.
Funny how this news comes out at the start of May when history says "Sell in May". Just sayin'
AR, you can use a pic of me crying, I sold ALL of my calls to soon...
Equity futures are rallying on this news. This is a sell (at least a short term trade). I just sold 1370.5 on the Jun futures with no stop loss....it was a 'small' be for sure....
@qqqq.
that's funny...I sort of thought he had been dead (secretly) for a while, too....
Either way, he has seemed fairly impotent the last several years. Thus, the reason I'll sell this overnight pop.
Perfect timing for the after hours trading. Dollar strength and PM weakness. Silver was itching to break through 50 and that had to be stopped.
There are no coincidences.
AT, all I can say is HOLD ON, you may be in for a wild ride.
There are no coincidences....
I've heard that somewhere before....
I'm ready for a wild ride...the futures short is about 10% of Max Trade....
So, "just a scratch"
Andy T
The DXY had stepped into the abyss and had to be pulled back out or $72 would've been taken out by Tuesday.
Gold and silver off their respective lows. Dollar off its high. The shake outs barely last a few hours.
>> Gold and silver off their respective lows.
Is that you, Maria? ;-)
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