USDJPY (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=up 92 bars)
high= 84.05
rev= 80.93; mid= 82.87
USDJPY trading below its 50% retrace of the move post intervention. It's also now trading below its weekly 3LB reversal price. Intervention is coming. When I don't know. But it will have to happen soon or carry trades will start blowing up all over again. That will send a few more hedge funds to the infirmary.
GOLD (weekly info)new high 1556.40
trend=up
high= 1556.40
rev= 1474.10; mid= 1515.25
I see the top callers are out in force. Right now the weekly chart is a bearish thrusting which is a continuation (of the trend) pattern. If it turns into dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing then I might get worried. It would still have to have a weekly 3LB reversal before taking the down move seriously. Plus the more it moves down the more sovereigns will buy. They also see the writing on the wall.
27 comments:
http://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2011/05/03/tourists-braving-trip-fukushima-despite-nuclear-fears/
Some Tourists Braving Trip to Fukushima Despite Nuclear Fears
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI
will be interesting to see how this 'Trades out', from here..
~40.78
also, will be interesting to see if a 'Spread' develops between 'Paper' and 'Physical' "pricing"..
this one..
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=w1
looks, even, worse..
"Longs" better be hoping that AT's Chart, from last night, can 'hold on'..
as of now, that probability looks dicey..
but, at the EOD, if it 'goes to Zero', the curious may be able collect abandoned positions, out by the Dumpster, next to the Cardboard, Plastic Bottles, and Tin Cans..
;)
AAIP
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TLT
~94.17
TLT has been 'sneaking up' on people..
those Options, that LB alluded to, previously, are 'Crushing it'..
AAIP
Seems like those two spinning top days for DXY has been decided...to the downside.
DON'T...LET...MARKET...IMPLODE...BEFORE...ISM
the curious may be able collect abandoned positions, out by the Dumpster, next to the Cardboard, Plastic Bottles, and Tin Cans...
Yeah, it was getting hard to walk to the mailbox before with all of the scrap silver lying around...
Now with everyone dumping it, I'm going to probably have to melt it down into the chassis of a huge earth mover to help clear it all away...
I doubt even the oceans of the Earth are large enough to dump it all into... Probably have to start vaporizing it with some more cruise missle strikes...
ISM Non Manufacturing 52.8 versus expected 57
Business Activity 53.7 down 6
New Orders 52.7 down 11.4
Employment 51.9 down 1.8
Exports 53.5 down 5.5
Imports 57 up 7.0
Economists say that the job picture in Las Vegas won't show improvement until at least four months from now. (CNBC)
That seems amazingly exact for economists.
Saw this over at zerohedge:
∞
∑QEn
n=1
LMAO
PUKEFEST all around....
WTI rising wedge line may gettting broken here.
What is 3LB?
Three line break. A Japanese charting technique where taking out three previous highs or lows is a break of the trend. Can be used on multiple time frames.
http://www.reuters.com/finance/markets
Breaking News: Treasury says roughly $2 trln debt limit increase needed to keep govt. operating through 2012: sources
$2T?!? Good luck with that.
That type of increase should send the DXY to sub $71 very quickly.
Have "times" always been this "interesting"?
QE-or-no-QE. Raise-debt-ceiling-or-not.
History in the making!
"Treasury says roughly $2 trln debt limit increase needed to keep govt. operating through 2012"
Oh I'm guessing that that means that austerity is upon us and they'll just shut down the government...
The only one left standing will be Bob Prechter who will buy up the United States of America with his cash...
Or if they DO raise the debt ceiling, I'm sure the Libyans & Japanese will be falling over themselves to buy that debt...
This is so orchestrated it's comical... It's the exact script that I've been talking about for the past 6 months...
- Run up the "paper price" of precious metals enough so that when you want to, the CRASH 'looks' scary...
- Granny finally sells her tea set to a bullion bank...
- JPM buys the PHYSICAL with the money made from paper shorts...
- Rinse repeat
The only question in my mind is what level do they decide to exit the shorts?
35? 32? 26?
That probably all depends on WHEN things look scary enough to 'need' QE3...
In the next phase, banks won't be worried about whether they have enough bullion in their vaults to survive a dollar collapse...
They are going to set the price for what they want to buy it for during this shakeout...
Sissyphus has his work cut out for him in silver...
@Amen
So far, the drop in SLV has been identical to the first drop in '08...
20%... all within a weekly candlestick...
Then, it fished around that number for most of the summer before getting slammed by the liquidity crunch around Lehman time...
That pattern, to ME at least, is the benchmark...
IOW...
No QE3 or debt ceiling raise by the end of the summer = SLV retracing perhaps back to $26...
QE3 & debt ceiling raise = support likely in the mid $30's...
USDJPY now below its 61.8% retrace of the move post Fukushima. The long term trendline back then was 81.25. This week it's 80.00. That may be the point of no return.
Market had to clear out the stops of those who are short before continuing lower...
I'll be studying parabolic moves some more this evening in relation to Silver. My memory is that the first really big jam down almost always gets rectraced decently...
Looking at the Wheat, Oil, Sugar blowoffs....
I hope we get to see 45 again soon....
Nice to Big Head Barry sort of laying the ground work to cover himself in case the market implodes around him...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/concerned-about-this-market/
He can point back to that and say: "See, I told you I was concerned about that 90% Long position."
The most important part of money management is to never really "look" wrong or look bad publicly.
@Andy
The so called "parabolic" move in SLV was not unlike the move from $15 to $21 (back from December '07 to March '08) in timeframe...
The only big difference was that the more recent rise had more ground to cover to hit the technical GANN line...
A simple H&S from the most recent ought to come in around $35... (which would also be a 61.8% retracement from $50 back to the last BASE in the $26-$27)...
Before silver went to $50, I wrote many times on this blog about that theoretical technical pattern (should $50 get hit - in fact)...
But nobody takes me very seriously on anything...
Note:
It's a little easier to see if you look at WEEKLY chart candles...
Less messy...
Hell there's even a WEEKLY chart gap at $37 which ought to be closed...
ANYBODY who is long physical silver ought to be VERY HAPPY that this is playing out this way...
If silver had been 'capped' at $37 I would have worried... If it had gone to $100 I would have been worried...
Hitting $50 and then pulling back strongly is P-E-R-F-E-C-T...
It buys time (for the banks to get in and start accumulating physical) until QE3 arrives (which may be months down the road)...
I wrote here a few weeks ago this exact thing... That on this NEXT commodity shakeout will be your last good chance to stock up your pantry...
The round number was defeated. Score one for the bears.
Ra,
We were watching the USDJPY retracement as well and would agree that another round of BoJ intervention is nigh, perhaps with help.
In other news, LB has turned bearish Treasuries and is short TLT.
Post a Comment