90 Day UST (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 0.020
rev= 0.090; mid= 0.055
Now trading above its weekly 3LB mid. Is the bond market beginning to stir?
DAX (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 7514.46
rev= 6664.40; mid= 7089.43
Germany is close to breaking down. That confirmed hanging man from the week ending 5/6/11 may be more ominous than expected. It may not be below the weekly 3LB mid but it is below its monthly 3LB mid. That's more bearish than the weekly.
CCI (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 631.82
rev= 690.05; mid= 661.19
The Continuos Commodity Index just can't make any headway from that long bearish week ending 5/6/11. It's treading water around its 23.6% retrace (633.69). But it's hard to tread when you're weighed down with an anchor. Plus the 23.6% sits right above the monthly 3LB reversal. All it takes is a little push and whoosh.
Who keeps playing this on the floor of the NYSE and in the elevators?
35 comments:
@Amen
Looks like some kind of "stick save" happened overnight... I guess cell phones were ringing at dinner tables...
FWIW... My guess is that they'll try to hold this thing together thru the weekend...
Then you have one of CV's famous "holiday weekend on one side of the pond - markets open on the other" scenarios...
May 1st weekend was the EUROPE CLOSED-US OPEN (Labor Day)... This time it's EUROPE OPEN-US CLOSED (Memorial Day)...
BTW - I stole that theory from Hugh Hendry about a decade ago when he was still with Odey (and was a regular on CNBC Europe)... Hendry was the original guy who got me interested in markets in the first place...
Anyway, I'm kind of laughing at this silver strength... Nothing, Nothing, for 3 weeks, then BAM straight up before this weekend (probably hoping to suck the longs back in before they pull the plug this weekend on all equities & commodities)...
My personal view is that if it happens, it won't really last that long...
If I-Man is reading here, I remember he was talking about some Martin Armstrong dates in mid-June that were targets... so maybe that will be it...
I'm thinking about converting some scrap silver into gold before the weekend... Not that gold wouldn't get hit in the process too, but if I'm thinking right, it might be a decent arbitrage opportunity...
If you're following it in the paper markets (SLV), it may go something like this...
- SLV runs up to something like 36.50-ish this week...
- If equities & commodities finally give it up over the weekend, then SLV may bottom out somewhere around 26 and change sometime this summer (or - just before they 'tip off' the banks that QE3 is on the way)... Anyway, for PHYSICAL buyers, I'd start averaging in under $30... (& if you don't like the volatility, just buy gold)...
It could go past 36.50 though (as there are some chart gaps up close to 38)...
Then there's one all the way back near the top (which happened over the May 1st weekend, which CV pre-warned about)...
But that one may be reserved for the eventual "double top"/"triple top" baloney which ought to come at some point (but my guess is NOT YET)...
In any case, the "longs" may be getting excited here because it seems that the simple trendline going back to Jackson Hole has been successfully tested... (support line from Jackson Hole - January '11 low - May '11 low)...
I don't trust that it will eventually hold... Still too steep for me...
How low did the futures get overnight? I don't have AH info. Thanks :-) I'm still here, but my children have been even more mischievious than usual recently which has taken quite a bit of my time. That, and 3rd grade IM volleyball...what was I thinking.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in April 2011 decreased 3.6% to $189.9 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders fell 1.5%. Overall shipments declined 1.0% to $194.9 billion. Capital goods shipments fell 1.9%. Unfilled orders rose 0.2%. And inventories increased 0.9% in April 2011.
ZH predicted this a few days ago...even if the site is a flame thrower, they do post interesting commentary.
Don't mean to go off on a rant here so early in the AM. If anyone wants to understand the difference between govt. And privately run business, just go to the DMV-DPS to replace a driver's license. I'm currently standing in a line of 75 people outside a CLOSED office. People know it's going to take forever, so they start queing hours before it opens.
Fantastic.
Yeah, let's get govt more involved in every day services.
@Andy T
If you were Obama, you probably wouldn't even be able to get a drivers license using the form of birth certificate you apparently produced...
Good news is though... You could still be President...
Just make sure to bone up on your teleprompter reading skills...
---
I used to tell people (on these blogs) all the same stories about the red tape and overall laziness of these government thingys from when I lived in Italy...
Nobody really listened to me though... Instead, they all banded together and started their own "Praise the Government (as long as the DEMS are running things)" blogs...
They're ideas on life in socialist countries, is hopping on a plane, and going to Egypt to buy pissing Pharaoh trinkets (and write travelogue stories about their adventures)...
Their... not They're
I must be a product of a state run education system...
lol, the DMV, what DMV ISN'T like that?
I spent nearly 8 months trying to switch my plates from PA to DE when I first moved here, I was pulled over at least 4 times that year for expired PA tags and when I told the cops about my DMV struggles they let me go every single time.
At least the people that work there are super nice......and if folks can't tell that's snark, well, you must have never been to the DMV.
@AT, tell me about it. For NEW insurance requrements (so my insurance Co sez)... I just spent 3+ months proving my wife is my wife and my daughter is my daughter. I had to get "certificate of births" because the copies of "birth certificate" was not valid. My wife was born in S. Korea so you could see the problems there. Also, they didn't keep records on my wifes shots when she was young... another BIG problem, they recommended she get all of the shots young'ns get from birth to age 7 AGAIN! bunch of crap!
Oh, they've been on my insurance for more than 10 years so why do they need this info now? I think it's OK now, they're still deducting the premiums from my check every 2 weeks...
I think letting interest rates rise here would actually restore some confidence in the markets. It would allow the elderly to make some kind of return, and if the argument is that with this much debt, the US can't afford to let interest rates rise...well, they will anyway in time.
...but probably we'll just get QE3 and continue to wreck the grand experiment...
It would allow the elderly to make some kind of return
---
Yeah I can picture it now... Jamie Dimon (or Barry Ritholtz, for that matter), sittin there in their penthouse office, or Hampton's Villa thinking:
What can we do today that would help the elderly gentiles to make some kind of return...
Mark Haines (CNBC) dead...
Cv,
that's sad, just saw him on tv late last week.
heart attack? he wasn't even that old.
Heart attacks aren't really related to age. They are more likely correlated to inactivity, smoking, cholesterol and triglycerides, diabetes, hypertension,and so forth.
If you have low fats, non-smoker, don't inherit the genes Jim Fixx inherited, you probably won't develop coronary artery disease...
@BinT
Cheetos... I suspect...
He was a self-avowed exercise hater...
sometimes your lifestyle catches up with you...
But I thought he was one of the better bubbas at calling out BS...at least as far as CNBC goes....
He never looked like a healthy guy.
how 'bout that silver count from sunday? the bullish and bearish count both had it bouncing....
love it
BinT
Geithner trying to cover his own ass before the next downturn begins (actually it never ended).
Andy T
Figured it out...sheesh.
My condolences to the Haines family. Even though I stopped watching CNBC, he was a good reporter. You could tell when he smelled the BS coming from someone.
@Andy
So now that silver got this bounce, which do you lean towards, the BULLISH or BEARISH counts???
Also... AMEN... Could you put up a chart in the wrap on the gold silver ratio??? Maybe even going back to when it was 100 (but any timeframe would be helpful)...
I'm thinking about using this to convert some old scrap sterling into gold just for a medium term arbitrage...
I added the March & April Durable Goods. Look at the revisions for March and February. April DG should probably be MUCH lower.
New orders
Apr 11 189885 prev -
Mar 11 197019 prev 208372
Feb 11 188693 prev 203342
Ex Trans
Apr 11 143175 prev -
Mar 11 145422 prev 153680
Feb 11 141906 prev 151700
ex Defense
Apr 11 179691 prev -
Mar 11 186422 prev 197903
Feb 11 179099 prev 188823
Calling BS on today's rally in crude and energy stocks.
Hedging for now until such time as we take a cleansing plunge.
See you tomorrow, bonds are really boring here.
Obama's subtle way of stating that IMF leadership should keep the status quo: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/obama-us-uk-leadership-is-essential-for-world-2011-05-25
cv. Not sure. But 39.50 will likely be good resistance on the July Silver futures on the first go. Even the "bullish" count would be that this is the b-wave of a big triangle....
Thanks Andy...
More competition: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-05/21/c_13886964.htm
Shanghai Futures Exchange expected to launch silver futures this year
SHANGHAI, May 21 (Xinhua) -- The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), China's biggest commodities market, is expected to launch silver futures by the end of this year, the head of the SHFE said Saturday.
The statement was made by Yang Maijun, general manager of the SHFE, on the sidelines of the Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai, an annual gathering of China's top financial officials and economists.
Yang also stressed the importance of introducing crude oil futures in China, noting that about 55 percent of China's crude oil has to be imported and that this percentage is likely to increase in the future.
"Developing crude oil futures has a bearing on national energy security and economic security, and the SHFE hopes to step up its efforts to launch crude oil futures," he said.
However, "this will be determined by the domestic spot market for crude oil and by how much of its production and logistics is market-based," Yang said.
He said the SHFE is also trying to internationalize prices of domestic futures.
"While the import and export of commodities in China has been fully internationalized, international investors cannot directly participate in domestic futures trading, thus limiting the influence of domestic futures prices," said Yang.
@Amen
So does that mean that I'm going to have to learn to swim with 100 pounds of silver strapped to my back, all the way across the Pacific Ocean to get a real price for it???
CRIMEX better get a grip... Or the Chinese will just buy up AG Enterprises & make dead drops for SMERSH... They probably already have 'Odd Job' in their employ...
Amen:
I read the Geithner story and came to the same conclusion. Your family didn't come from Chicago, did it?
We seem to reach the same conclusions about some of these stories lately...
Or perhaps most bloggers reached the CYA/Geithner conclusion too, and we are just in the majority...
BinT
Chitown. But Geithner sees the writing on the wall. Realizes that no elected or appointed official's job security is guaranteed.
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