HYG/LQD (weekly info)WEEKLY REVERSAL new low 0.8331
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 0.8331
rev= 0.8577; mid= 0.8454
IG outperforming HY using this proxy. Is risk finally starting to run for the hills? Previous weekly 3LB reversal were weeks ending 6/22/07, 1/4/08, 6/27/08, 10/10/08, 10/30/09, 5/7/10, 8/20/10 and now 5/20/11. Some of the dates are obvious as to the market conditions. I'll have to look into some of the others.
IWM/SPY (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 0.6349
rev= 0.6013; mid= 0.6181
This proxy for market liquidity is starting to show weakness. It's breaching the lower line of the rising wedge. It's also trading below its weekly 3LB mid. The gravitational pull of the black hole is increasing.
IBEX (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 11068.10
rev= 8923.40; mid= 9995.75
This move down is accelerating. It's below its monthly 3LB mid. It is now below its SMA(144). It's violated the lower trend line. The news from Spain indicates that the Popular Party has won over the Socialists. The Popular Party wants the debts to be recognized and dealt with. So the debts that are off the books are coming back on. Ruh roh?
41 comments:
Bloomberg and CNBC have been parading guests who all all saying BTFD!!!
LMAO
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43146400
"A Greek default would be highly destabilizing and would have implications for the creditworthiness of issuers across Europe," Alastair Wilson said in a telephone interview.
Greek Default Could Make Others Junk: Moody's
"This would result in more highly polarized credit worthiness and ratings among euro zone sovereigns, with the stronger countries retaining very high ratings and the weaker countries struggling to remain in investment grade," he said."
...I think the "struggle" is probably over at this point...
BinT
So are you saying that it's time for the weaker countries to "tap out"?
I still can't get over that OKC/Dallas game from last night...
Classic case of immature stars vs. mature stars.
Those guys were hopping around like they had one the thing with 5 minutes left....
Ridiculous.
That coach needed to calm those guys down.
Nowitzki is SICK. I've never seen anyone shoot the basketball that well.
"Bloomberg and CNBC have been parading guests who all all saying BTFD!!!"
Good Luck with that.
Andy T
I've seen leads disappear before but that was definitely experience at work with Dallas. They didn't freak out or anything. Just calmly kept making key shots to tie the game. That probably was so depressing to OKC that their mind wasn't right for OT.
Amen:
You know, I don't know what I'd do if I was the leader of Greece....but the citizenry has acted more like a third world country with its tax evasion, off-the-books money transfers and so forth...I think I would have to accept what is going to be is going to be at some point.
...Wouldn't you?
just a reminder...
we're not in a Major 18's downtrend, yet...
1537
...1456
1375
...1244
1112
and on the Minor 18's...
1350
1332
...1323
1314
...1305
1296
1278
Monday we dropped from 1332 to 1314, traded up to today 1323 (18.5), let's see if it turns around but I feel it's going to be a struggle to get back to 1332 soon.
BinT
Payments have been off the books for so long that it is genetic. Greece knows it can't possibly pay off the loans. The amount of austerity needed to bring their deficit down is mind boggling. The citizens can only take so much before taking aim at their leaders.
@BinT
I say just let every country that's going to go broke, go broke! Every country to it's own. It'll work out better for everyone in the long run. We've kept this frik'n ponzi sh1t going for way to long IMO.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -6 previous was 10.
Man, couldn't stay up for the game last night.
Heat Dallas finals is the way it's shaping up.
If the Heat keep playing like they are then Dallas is going to get smoked too.
Dirk is so hot right now, sort of like Hansel, but those things fade.
So, investors should know they can't lend to Greece, because Greeks are unwilling to pay taxes and cut spending. (Sound like the US?)
http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/USESAEI/2011/05/24/file_attachments/28162/New_Residential_Sales_April_2011_.pdf
hmmm... Sales of new single-family homes in April 2011 were 323,000 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, up 7.3% from the revised March level but down 23.1% from their year-ago level.
"The amount of austerity needed to bring their deficit down is mind boggling."
Ra, not directed at you but I'm just going to state again that the word austerity is not being used properly here from my understanding of English....which maybe is not so great I admit, and someone can correct me then. When you stop living beyond your means after having done so for a long, long time, I don't find this to be a measure of austerity but one of sanity and responsibility.
This is the problem with the giant bobble heads that want to rip on "the austerians" who think that it's appropriate for people to.....you know, live within their means, among other ideas....dummies.
Also, I've read now probably a dozen accounts of folks that "spent all they had" on purpose because they were "getting ready" for the rapture.
one guy took his family to the grand canyon and spent all his savings, maxed out his credit cards, he's apparently now very worried about what they are going to do.
Really nutty these folks, makes you wonder if they've ever cracked a Bible considering that's how they decided to live their "last days" running up debts and having a good time.....wow.
I suppose some of them will need some form of bailout/taxpayer assistance now, though my take is Camping should divvie up his 72 million to the sheep he duped before a dime of taxpayer money is spent.
Sarkozy Pushes For Global Web Rules: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304520804576343023926886188.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
MUST...KEEP...MASSES...AT...BAY
ben22
I think austerity means cutting back spending, paying off debt and not trying to get your credit card (debt ceiling) limits raised.
I think austerity means loading Marine One & your phat assed limo on a C class Transport plane, & taking your own tricked out 747 over to Ireland to grab a guiness trying to get people thinking you're all Irish or something instead of born in Kenya...
http://www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/archive.cgi?read=174982
Ra,
Many of these can be found with goog search:
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/austerity
all mention a "rigid" or "extreme" economy, often using "wartime austerity" as an example
I don't think there is anything rigid or extreme about living within your means or a country being responsible with their spending habits.
thanks to government the meaning of this word is now blurred with a fine Wiki page to cement the ideas and the bobble head pundits help that along as well, sort of like how the Federal Reserve uses their name and language to deceive.
Consider the other side, which is that for all the screams of crazy austerians, the very policy they continue now will eventually make all these people slaves to debt....if it hasn't already!
So tell me....which sounds more "rigid": debt slaves, or living within your means?
ben22
My main point of concern is that until Congress decides to cut Medicare, Health Care or Defense we're doing nothing but pissing into the wind.
You know it's manipulated when there is not one mention of the Richmond Fed Index in its "Latest News": http://www.marketwatch.com/story/newsviewer
Ra,
I don't know all the numbers but that would seem to be the case, without working on those three all budget talks seem pointless.
Note yesterday how XOM was able to hold general support in the $80 range despite the big sell-off.
Still very bearish CAT, thinking LULU may break out to the upside shortly though....
thinking LULU may break out to the upside shortly though...
We're all going to get rich doing yoga...
Whocoodanode?
Got bored... applied Major 18's to the DOW...
15300
...14709(.618)
...14526(.5)
...14344(.382)
13752 [HIGHS TRADED FOR 8 MONTHS NEAR HERE LAST 1/2 2007]
...12748(.618) [RECENT HIGH]
...12438(.5)
...12128(.382)
11124 [RESISTANCE 4&5/2010]
6876 [MARCH 2009 LOW]
There's alot more to this but don't have the time to show it all. Seems many turning points are at or just a couple percent from these numbers.
ben22
CAT doesn't seem to be in a rush to fill that gap from yesterdays open.
"I don't think there is anything rigid or extreme about living within your means or a country being responsible with their spending habits."
---
Ask yourself why the creators of a fractional reserve fiat system would ever want people (& countries) being responsible with their spending habits... When the creators of the system are the tolltakers...
Especially now that they know that they won't even end up as bagholders of bad debt because those losses will be "socialized"
Sounds like a good game to me... I want in...
"...This is the problem with the giant bobble heads that want to rip on "the austerians" who think that it's appropriate for people to.....you know, live within their means, among other ideas....dummies..."
MackieB,
note that the _________ that rip on "the austerians" are, as well, preternaturally, Pro-FedRes..
there's a Reason for it..
LSS: if One is not 'terminally' in Debt/needing 'Loans', then there is a *dramatic reduction in the *need for the FedRes, in the first place..
also, page back in the History Books, witness the long-running, and whithering, Attacks on "Frugality" (esp. as part of the 'Puritan Work Ethic') beginning/throughout the early 20thC. ...
AAIP
AAIP,
oh no doubt those are Pro Fed comments, if I'm a loon because i don't think we need a federal reserve then I'm a loon....so be it.
CV,
don't look now, but the Fed, in many ways as a result of people not living within their means, which the Fed helped enable
has loaded their own balance sheet with worthless paper
time will tell what this means for the Fed
@ben22
Time will definitely tell...
The thing about it is, is that despite it being 'worthless' (meaning - not likely to ever get paid), it's still ALIVE debt...
Deflation is when the debt finally disappears off the ledger... A lot of this debt extends years out into the future, which means they can play the QE game as long as they want to (until people finally say ENOUGH) and reject the dollar...
So that's why I think we'll see these rolling waves of inflation, punctuated by these pullbacks which last just long enough for people to start getting all riled up...
Turning the heat up bit by bit on the pot with water in it so the frog won't jump out...
I don't think the Fed is worried too much about even crashing the dollar in the end... I think they hope that if they can perform their tricks long enough, they'll start hoarding all the metals in the process (crashing them periodically to fix a better price for themselves - then just print the money to buy it)...
They want to seed Johnny with the idea that PM's are volatile and should be avoided (when it's the opposite that's true, the dollar has been more volatile than gold the past 3 years)...
I can't say whether or not they'll succeed to their hearts desire, but it has seemed to work out thus far... It'll work until it doesn't I suppose...
Deflation has been around since 2000...
Assets are deflating versus gold...
nice silver chart riding the thin line
Funny watching the TICKS spike higher each time we get close to closing the gap from 4/19-4/20.
qqqq
Silver pushing higher is not what they wanted to see. The effects of the last hike must be wearing off.
CV,
one problem within your thesis is that its highly unlikely for people to reject the dollar in deflation, sounds intuitive I realize, however, the exact opposite is much more likely in financial markets if/when deflation happens.
@ben22
You're right, because we have basically been deflating since 2000 and the dollar is still around...
All that has happened since 2000, in a nutshell, is that a whole bunch of new debt has been created in the form of mortgages, fiscal stimulus programs, and other unfunded liabilities...
Some of that debt is toxic, and by now made it onto the Fed's balance sheet... But some of it also makes its way around... Mostly in the way of bankers bonuses & higher commodity & PM prices...
Why the Fed would ever want to change that gravy train is beyond me... Unless people were coming at them with pitchforks... So when finally given the choice, they'll take the higher prices, rather than take haircuts on their incomes...
The main reason is that probably most people have barely changed their consumption lifestyles... The rest (the 44 million on foodstamps) gets socialized...
I'm even guessing that the 44 million on foodstamps are actually living BETTER than they were before... Now they don't have to choose between a cellphone & food... I guess the next step is where O'Bama is going to give them all free cellphones...
Part of the reason that commodities (& the market) are coming down in this period is because they have to index down CPI before the end of September so they can base the entitlement adjustments on the lower number...
As soon as that gets locked in, it'll all inflate right back up again...
I said this a couple months ago... This will be your "window" to stock up on things (if you haven't gotten around to it yet)...
Gold is not going back to $1000...
Preacher says world will actually end in October
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110524/ap_on_re_us/us_apocalypse_saturday
---
His "math" was off... So I wonder if he's 'doubling down' and going 200% short as we speak...
...& y'all think CV is crazy!
Obama code-named ‘smart alec’ in Britain
http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theticket/20110524/ts_yblog_theticket/obama-code-named-smart-alec-in-britain
The label certainly appears to fit in the minds of British police. Scotland Yard, the UK's police force, has given Obama the security codename 'Chalaque' for his visit this week to the United Kingdom, the UK Daily Mail reports. The term is reportedly a Punjabi word meaning someone who is too clever for his own good, according to the newspaper
So no wonder BR likes him so much... Birds of a feather...
I can't believe this guy is already out with another date....
on second thought, given what I've witnessed the last 3-4 years in nearly every aspect of daily life....that only seems right.
I'm growing tired of hearing about how clever Obama is. What proof of that is there?
without a script he's a bumbling blowhard just like everyone else in Washington, just listen to him respond to 1:1 questions, outside of "insider reports" I've certainly never observed him being some quick witted thinker on anything at all, in fact, most of his quick thoughts end up being really stupid statements
How is he clever? any examples? Is it because he went to Harvard....so he HAS TO BE smart? is that it?
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