DXY (weekly info)WEEKLY REVERSAL new high 75.76
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 75.76
rev= 72.93; mid= 74.35
The dollar reversed higher last week (after two weeks of gain) but weakness has set in as this week is forming a dark cloud cover.
USDJPY (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 80.58
rev= 84.80; mid= 82.69
Last week formed a bullish harami and may be confirmed this week. It is also back above its 50% retrace of the move since 3/11/11. Now that the GDP for Japan was WTE the BoJ may print Yen which would send this cross even higher.
Swiss Franc (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 1.1562
rev= 1.1090; mid= 1.1326
After all of the volatility in other currencies the Franc appears to be holding up. This week it is back above the weekly 3LB mid and has also held its 14.6% retrace. Weekly %R is not overbought but MACD (9,15,7) is starting to cross below zero. Time will tell.
45 comments:
6:59a Ford to build first transmission plant in China
...The exodus continues...
How is Kyle Korver a pro basketball player?
Anyone?
AT,
looks like your 1350 will be hit before the end of this week. Nice call.
Kyle Korver?
Good question....
he's really awful, and the high socks have the effect of making him look even slower than he is
you know when he's in the game easy buckets are going to happen, along with terrible 3 point shots as soon as he gets in the game
Lebron was tough last night, what an awesome series this is shaping up to be.
I still think that trend line dating back to 3/6/09 is in the back of the markets mind. It's in the corner of the markets eyes. When they turn to look its gone but it's still there.
ben22
what I found interesting about the game was that the Bulls had a horrible shooting night yet Miami didn't pull away as expected. Miami should have won with many more points.
Ra,
Several stocks have broken strong trendlines that have been in place since 2009, CAT is among them.
that said, due to the way the waves are shaping it's appearing more likely we won't see the start of that (C) wave down until 2012.
So I'm watching "Jim Rome is Burning" yesterday, and he has Jemele Hill on there and they're chitchatting...
He asks Jemele if she thinks Dallas is the team to beat, and she says, "No, I think Miami is still the team to beat" (this was BEFORE last nights game)...
Then, 3 seconds later he asks about GAME 2 (Bulls-Heat), and she says this is a "must win" for Miami (that if they lose, they're done)...
3 seconds before they were the TEAM TO BEAT... 3 seconds later, they're toast if they lose... WTFF????
Then he asks heer about how she thinks the lockout will effect play in the NFL (assuming the season gets underway)...
She starts saying all the usual stuff about "timing", and all that... Then says that it may be the LINEMAN who have a tougher time getting back into shape, and working properly (which I sort of agree with)...
But then thia airhead goes on to say "But it shouldn't be so much of a problem for experienced lines (like the Pittsburgh Steelers)...
Steelers??? WTFF??? That's probably the most dilapidated, patchwork offensive line in the NFL at the end of last season, and the players have all been 'locked out' of the practice facilities since the beginning of March...
I hereby nominate JEMELE HILL as Obama's "czar" of sports writing...
Ra,
I only saw the second half but yeah, that's what it looked like to me too. This one might go the distance, which has to make you wonder if Dallas rolls OKC the rest of the series they'll be rested for the finals. I'm not sure who they have on OKC that can really guard Dirk.
Did anyone notice how Derek Rose would pull back in mid air if he jumped too early trying to block a shot? This way he wouldn't land on the player and pick up another foul.
Peeps,
If I might beat a horse once more to see if it has some life in it, I'd like to ask y'll:
After June, how will the Fed keep Treasury rates close to zero (their target) after withdrawing support for bond prices to the tune of $90B/month ($1T/year)?
Without QE3, won't interest rates rise? (Well, they could fall, if enough people think "lack of stimulus" will lead to a slowdown. But, that means they'll sell off other assets.) Yet, the Fed is saying it won't raise interest rates for a while even after withdrawing stimulus. How can it possibly do that??
Odd to drop 4 SPX points like that in one second, and then stay there. Must be all the $ moving into Linked in.
Philly Fed 3.9???
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
BinT
Yes 3.9 or a 78.9% drop from the last report. Ouch!!1
@wunsa (9:46)
You're just coming to that puzzle now???
If you'd have thought about that same question back in January, it would have been easy to catch a double in silver (from $25 to $50)...
Tsk Tsk
Heh heh... CV, I've been thinking about it for a while. In part, I'm asking it again because "decision time" is coming up...
I'm wondering what possibilities you're all "contemplating" and, perhaps, even "expecting".
Glencore IPO....
Let's mark that one down on the Calendar...if it's not marking at least a temporary top in the commodities/stocks, I'll be surprised....
@wunsa
I've already said it a million times...
They'll print to infinity... Disguise it with more clever names in hopes of shifting the focus... keep a propaganda campaign going on TV and from the oval office... start wars & skirmishes... find new "straw men" (now that OBL is out of the picture)... Frame IMF chiefs who go off the reservation...
Glidepath bitchez...
Try to be as clever as you can in buying as much time you need to print yourself enough dollars to buy up all the precious you can (before faith is totally lost in those dollars)... And try to paper short commodities until granny's tea set comes out of the cupboard...
or... the other alternative is that we all go to Robert Prechterville & Ron Paul becomes POTUS...
I'm pretty sure the banks won't mind at all taking haircuts on the debt that they are on the receiving end of...
I'm pretty sure they're al queueing up right now to say... "Our bad... this was all our fault... Let's let the DOW slide back to 400 and we'll all go out and get jobs bussing tables at McDonalds..."
Face it people...
Even if you're a hardcore DEFLATIONIST (which technically is the correct posture)...
You ain't never getting paid even if you short everything to oblivion...
Who is going to be around to pay you when we hit bottom and those bets need to be paid out???
Might as well just let the banks have their jollies in the mean time and watch them keep trying to blow bubbles... At least if you're a trader, & even if it's only Monopoly money, you have something to do...
CV quote:
"You ain't never getting paid even if you short everything to oblivion..."
One does not travel the short to the end.
-Confucius
Check out the price action of the new IPO LNKD. It is just amazing. Since there is no past, it is incredible how the machines are trading it. Maybe, I am wrong and since there is no history and this is the only stock really trade directly by humans Fot Elliot wave experts, please take a look. This market is just a huge bubble. The IPO price was just a scam and it has increase already 50%. I believe these IPOs are just bear traps. They set very high prices, so a lot of bears are attracted to short, and just with a couple of big hedge funds (which planned together the strategy) pushing the price, the small bears are crushed. Then the hedge funds just change the side and the house keeps all the money.
Cacerolo
Cacerolo
I can almost guarantee those who got in early on the IPO are taking profit. Why take chances?
"You ain't never getting paid even if you short everything to oblivion"
CV, strange thing to say, anyone in the deflation camp is not in the mindset you will short to 0 and get paid, in fact, anyone that thinks they will short to 0 is an idiot.
but to your point, that's why all deflationists own real money.....just like you promote daily.
Amen Ra
I believe you are right. They made profit in both ways. The important issue is to know who are the ones that got in early. I do not know any investor who would pay 20x price/revenue or 140x EV/EBITDA for any investment. How many years you have to wait for a decent return? I see this as another sign that the bubble is getting closer to its end.
Cacerolo
but to your point, that's why all deflationists own real money
That REAL MONEY that you speak of... Is that that same REAL MONEY that there's a chart of its buying power 1913 versus now?
Where did I put that chart anyway?
With all that REAL MONEY stacked up on pallets in your garage... Tell me... What do you think you're going to buy with that?
If the DOW hits 400, the store shelves will look like Moscow circa 1978...
Open question:
How many of you have a (premium) linkedin membership?
How many of you use it actively?
How many have forgotten your cc is getting dicked every month?
How many have found it useful?
How many have canceled in the last year or so?
Maybe its just me, but I can say yes to all of the above.
I meant...most of the above...the exception is "useful".
CV,
Have you or have you not advocated the buying/storing of phsyical gold and silver every single day for months now? Have you or have you not repeatedly told us that you have 3,000 nickels at your place. Among many other things.
So what, now real money doesn't matter, it's food that people really need because we are turning into Moscow.
You're a riot dude.
real money is not paper dollars, in case you were wondering
b/c thats right, it was only the deflationists that were really buying up the metals 10 years ago
as BP mentioned in the latest theorist, he made two specific recommendations to buy physical silver, once below $4 and once at $14 and change
of course, those yelling the loudest about silver now got in around $30 and very likely just watched their "double" go poof
@CV
When the truckers went on strike during the arab oil embargo, store shelves in L.A. in '74...did look like Moscow. Line ups for gas on odd/even days...then burn it looking for a Safeway or a Hughes not entirely bereft of necessities...like asswipe and dog food....among other things.
Among others you've made the last two days, these are efficient market type statements:
“After June, how will the Fed keep Treasury rates close to zero (their target) after withdrawing support for bond prices to the tune of $90B/month ($1T/year)?”
“Without QE3, won't interest rates rise?”
Now perhaps it's more powerful from say....Jeffrey Gundlach, than it is from me when I tell you that those same arguments were made in reverse at the onset of QE2 but that we can easily see in the charts that the reverse happened anyway (here you go, first few minutes: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000016107) I can literally find hundreds of articles and videos stating that what *should occur b/c of QE2 was a drop in bond yields, Bernankes original statements ALL said this. One need only look at a chart to see the exact opposite of consensus expectation occurred, the exact opposite of what EMH told you would happen occurred. Now here all over again QE2 is coming to an end and people make the same fundamental/EMH argument because it “makes sense”
wtf, I give up trying to post right now, blogger sucks
see next 2:35 post which seems to have stuck
nevermind, I really do give up, pretty annoying when you try to type more than three lines blogger just erases it
likely doesn't matter anyway, EMH rules!
I just don't get it. I find it hard to rationalize the Obama position in favor of the Arab spring, which I assume he thinks will result in greater democracy for the arab Middle East. Yet he now tell the only real democracy in the ME to pull back to the 1967 borders...
Schizophrenic. This fellow is just an intellectual mess...maybe with his intervention in Libya and threats against Syria, and now the open comments about the Israeli borders..maybe he likes this new feeling of power....
This is funny:
http://content.screencast.com/users/wprosser/folders/Jing/media/58614365-3217-4f55-9c26-ab997f9d82bc/2011-05-18_1604.png
Sentiment is no great tool for trading, but this makes me wonder if $30 will actually happen. Silver was below $15 last time it was this low, that's crazy, and John.....poor Johnny.
hate to break it to you Mel,
but dog food is not a necessity, unless you need the dog for a dog sled or fattening him up for Christmas dinner
man, our last company event wasn't quite like this one:
http://dealbreaker.com/2011/05/munich-re-units-color-coded-hooker-party-got-a-nice-write-up-in-the-company-mag/
The event at the thermal bath complex also included curtained canopy beds. “Everyone could take a woman to one of the beds and do what he wanted,” a participant said. “After each encounter the women were given a stamp on their forearm. That’s how a record was kept of how often each woman was frequented.” Later the company magazine HMI Profil reported on the party, writing that it had been “killer fun.”
@anon
Not a necessity for me...I'm not a dog owner. However...I'm still not entirely sure what was in last Sunday's dim sum...although it was pretty tasty.
A cycle Wave II flat in the dollar?
ok, sure.....lol.
Ben,
During 2005-2008, Ritholtz, CR, and many other bloggers published charts showing mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW) running at around $100-250B/quarter. This minority of bloggers/investors knew MEW was powering the economy and that we'd go into a recession and a bear market as that game came to an end.
I don't see how my thinking and questions re QE are any different. Ben's printing is the same order of magnitude as MEW.
Is that "EMH" - "type" thinking? If you define EMH broadly enough, well, yes.
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