A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Is it that time again?
Creditcane™: C'mon man. Philly Fed drops to 3.9 and I can't make an appearance?
SPXSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). Held trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Tested and held the 23.6% retrace (1341.90). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1360.48). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Any questions?"
DXYBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Failed SMA(55). Still below its 38.2% retrace (75.99). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 74.19).
VIXInverted hammer day (a warning shot across the bow?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed SMA(21). Failing its 14.6% retrace (16.75). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 18.40). Deep in the "no fear" zone.
GOLDSpinning top day again. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Failing to hold SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1556.40). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.
EURUSDBullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back above SMA(55). Still below its 76.4% retrace (1.4346). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4508).
JNKBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed above all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace (40.93). Held its 14.6% retrace (40.73). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.49).
10YR YIELDShooting star day (closed flat so didn't confirm hanging man). Still below all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (30.98). Still below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.30).
WTIBearish short day (possible bearish harami day but not in uptrend). Held SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Back below its 61.8% retrace (98.41). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 111.41).
SILVERDoji day. Still failing SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed the upper trend line. Failed its 61.8% retrace (35.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 35.29). ""You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"
DJ TRANS AVGBullish long day. Back above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 5510.06).
CRBBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below Monthly 3LB reversal price. Tested and failed its 23.6% retrace (341.84). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 336.48).
WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011
35 comments:
The day and month after the end of QE2, do interest rates rise or fall? Why or why not?
I'm asking it again because I don't think anyone's answered it.
Do they rise, because there's no longer a bid under Treasuries? Or do they fall because withdrawal of stimulus will slow growth (or cause a double-dip or just exacerbate the current depression -- pls don't argue over the semantics of this) and thus draw investors back to Treasuries as a safe haven?
Feel free to "think outside of the box", too. E.g.: Imagine that the goverbiz (dishonestly) reduces the new issuance of Treasuries, so that the flow of new supply does not exceed the expected demand (at current interest rates). For instance, what if Geithner were to reduce new issuance by raiding some other alleged piggy banks?
Perhaps I should explain that prior post a little more. What I'm saying is: maybe Geithner will find some way to reduce the supply of Treasuries, so that supply doesn't outrun demand and, thus, so that yields don't rise.
Bruce,
From the tone in your post re "Arab Spring", it seems to me that you don't like the idea of them breaking away out from under the dictators we install and support there. Don't worry though. I suspect Obama's words today are lip service to placate a few Muslims over the 50-year-old US/Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Obama's been a perfect "velvet glove, iron fist" leader. I doubt he means anything by what he said today.
@Amen
"Is it that time again"
Want me to get Waddell & Reed on the line???
@ben22
@ben22
THIS
Have you or have you not advocated the buying/storing of phsyical gold and silver every single day for months now?
YES... Because I consider it REAL MONEY... Instead, unless I'm reading the situation incorrectly, it is YOU who consider pieces of linen printed with Ben Franklin's face on them money... That...
or WORSE... digital 1's & 0's on some electronic balance ledger, on a remote server... Note: I hear those electronic 1's & 0's are quite the rage these days because when it comes to EATING
them, they contain no fat, no protein, no carbs, & no calories...
COKE ZERO BITCHEZ! (they go good with Chips Ahoy)!... Ahoy Polloi!
Have you or have you not repeatedly told us that you have 3,000 nickels at your place. Among many other things.
67,000 (give or take)... & I only do it for ONE reason... Personally - I cherish the COPPER & NICKLE... But WHAT IF I'M WRONG??? And Prechter & friends get their wet dream and the DOW plunges
back to 400... And gold??? Well what the hell would it be then??? $200??? $40???... Well at least I could still own some FACE in those KING DOLLARS (I mean - I could trade 800 nickles [$40 face]
for an ounce of gold... That's 84 ounces!!! That's a big assed fucking ingot)... I'm sure it's going to happen that way because the dollar is going to be... well... KING! It takes 20 nickles to
reach a buck, and 100 linen GEORGE WASHINGTON's, to get to a BEN FRANKLIN... In any case, I'm just trying to hold enough FACE DOLLARS to shine your shoes because I know you have those BEN FRANKLINS
stacked on pallets waiting for the cornucopia of things you'll be able to buy on the cheap
So what, now real money doesn't matter, it's food that people really need because we are turning into Moscow
Food isn't a problem for CV... That was PHASE #1 of the operation... It went/goes in the following order (more or less):
- 10 year perishables (dry goods: rice, beans, dry pasta, flour)
- CONTAINERS (without the right containers, 10 year perishables are actually only 2 year perishables)
- climate control devices (de-humidifiers, freezers, cedar, etc.)
- Redundant/renewable energy (to power your freezers & devices for when the electric power gets shut off)
- 3 year perishables (meats to freeze, oils, some canned goods)
- alcohol (you'll NEVER make it thru armageddon without booze)
- 1 year perishables (for trade & barter)
- dried herbs & spices
- heirloom seeds (all your fresh vegetables & perennial herbs & spices)
- CONTAINMENT (of H20)
- Irrigation conduits
- Pumping mechanisms (both electric powered & manual)
- greenhouses (depending on your latitude)
- topsoil, compost, perlite, vermiculite (unless you think you're going to grow crops on clay or in a swamp)
- NETS (to keep away animals & insects)
- INSECTS (to keep away 'other' insects... Praying mantises & lady bugs do very well)
- WORMS (to help you compost)
- BEEHIVES & FLOWERING PERENNIALS (to help with pollination of your fruit plants)
If you want to take it to the next level...
- Tilapia bitchez!... or CHICKENS bitchez! (but you'll need a whole new set of aquariums, nurseries, fodder, nitrogen removers, filters, oxygen injectors... I can't write a novel here...
FUCK... I'm getting tired here... Figure it out for yourself...
In any case... ALL OF THE ABOVE is what I consider REAL MONEY...
There are two possible paths...
1. Inflation BEFORE Deflation
OR
2. Deflation BEFORE Inflation
WTF makes you think that #2 will occur after witnessing the strategy of the past 2 years... The path has been selected...
If I'm TOTALLY wrong on that, then FINE... We get a deflationary collapse (based on the QUADRILLION/BRAZILLION dollars that will never be repaid)... WTF difference does it make?... If that happens,
then the DYNAMIC = "NO SOUP FOR YOU"...
Mel was right (because he remembers the 70's just as I do)...
DEFLATION = EMPTY STORE SHELVES & GAS LINES (CV remembers 'waiting in lines' for 2 hours to get gas... and that was only on alternate days, because you could only get gas on ODD/EVEN days based on
your licesnse plate number)...
How is that possible??? Because if Prechters wet dream of DOW 400 comes to pass, then prices will be forced to drop... Depressed prices mean that there's NO INCENTIVE to produce goods or bring them
to market... THUS, I'd highly suggest that you study the 'steps' I've outlined above... Because if there are no goods at MARKET... The fucking market is YOU homes...
CV, were you addressing me? Well, I agree with everything you just said. (Not a recent development either.) However, isn't it important to know the order: inflation/deflation vs deflation/inflation? (It's a valid answer to say "no".)
Should've started last comment with: "CV, were you addressing Ben but answering my question?"
@wunsa
Frankly... I'm SICK of the 'inflation vs, deflation' debate as much as anybody else around here...
It all amounts to 'theory' vs. 'practice'... Which in CV's mind is IRONIC, because I consider THEORY to be, in fact, PRACTICE... NOT THE GAME...
IOW... I kind of side with Allen Iverson on this one...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exOxUAntx8I
All I know is this... This 100 year FIAT escapade is 'on the ropes'... Place your bets as to how it'll turn out...
Some believe in FIAT (because they consider THAT to be money)...
I don't...
cv--
you mentioned: "...)... Frame IMF chiefs who go off the reservation..."
on previous thread..
what makes you believe such?
AAIP
"The event at the thermal bath complex also included curtained canopy beds. “Everyone could take a woman to one of the beds and do what he wanted,” a participant said. “After each encounter the women were given a stamp on their forearm. That’s how a record was kept of how often each woman was frequented.” Later the company magazine HMI Profil reported on the party, writing that it had been “killer fun.”"
It sounds like some customer outtings I may have been involved in...
Just kidding....
I've done some wild stuff before...but I've never heard of a company sanctioned gig like that.
>> Frankly... I'm SICK of the 'inflation vs, deflation' debate as much as anybody else around here...
I understand. But, I don't think I've read anyone here (or, really, elsewhere, too) has tried to anticipate exactly how the CCP (Central Capitalist Party) "pulls this off" in the next couple of months.
from previous thread:
Cacerolo:
"Check out the price action of the new IPO LNKD. It is just amazing."
Brings back memories of the "good ole" days....
Pets.com, Webvan, etoys, etc....
@Wunsacon
"The day and month after the end of QE2, do interest rates rise or fall? Why or why not?
I'm asking it again because I don't think anyone's answered it."
I'll go ahead and go out on limb here...
Rates will fall at first because it's the least expected outcome.
Think the question you highlight, as well as the surrounding premise, is why markets are difficult to understand on 'fundamentals' alone.
My boss has been long the TBT, and hating it, for a long, long time...on the assumption that treasuries are a "great short."
All I keep telling him is: "check out the Japanese Government bond market the last few decades."
Alan Greenspan notoriously submitted that his short term interest rates merely 'followed' the longer term rates lower or higher....
In many ways, that's the TRUTH.
Wunsacon,
If you think the credit bubble burst had to do with MEW, or the housing bubble alone there isn't anything I can help you out with.
EMH is a very specific and not broad def. at all, I could really care less if Barry or CR wrote about it, Barry lost money in 2008 so you are aware, he also started calling for it in 2006 .
and wunsacon,
not to mention, what does a recession have to do with the market? So what if BR and CR called for a recession....did that tell you how to profit in markets based off that fundamental information? I doubt it.
I think my main point is that I'm trying to encourage people to stop denying what literally just happened. QE2 was said by the masses to drive yields lower, it did the reverse, the end of QE2 is said to drive them higher, Gundlach says maybe not, I think he might have point.....thats all. I realize I'm wasting my time usually when doing this but I have a hard time understanding how people remain in complete denial over something that just happened in the last 8 months.
@AAIP
you mentioned: "...)... Frame IMF chiefs who go off the reservation..."
on previous thread..
what makes you believe such?
It just doesn't pass the SMELL test (kinda like BO's birth certificate)...
This is yet ANOTHER thing that, (whomever is really interested in this & trying to comprehend CV's POV on the subject), need to spend more than 3 seconds of contemplation on it before moving on to look for jazz tunes on you tube...
Look... For all intents & purposes, DSK was/is a power crazy/horny/delerious scumbag with a history that had such a thing coming to him (karmically speaking)...
But look at it another way... HOW it transpired...
I mean, for God's sake... Within HOURS he was pulled off a plane??? Jesus tapdancing Christ on a hotplate!!! I mean, let's say it was I... CV... who did this to a maid in NYC on my way to a return trip to Italy or something...
Think they'd have been able to marshall the resources to pull ME off the plane within that timeframe???
No fucking way...
Which only means... A bunch of things were lined up beforehand... Hell... it was EASY... This guy was a sitting duck (based on his past history)... Put the chess pieces in place... Set the trap... Make sure the net is in place... In two shakes, you're in Rikers...
And why?
Becayse the dude was OFF THE RESERVATION... You can't have an IMF chief talking about HAIRCUTS for bondholders (not when the bondholders are the banking cartel)...
It fucking amazes me that people think that 'MARKETS' (after the last 2 years), are these things that TD Ameritrade account holders & E-Trade babies move around...
ben22 said it yesterday I believe... EWI calls over the past 18 months have been shit (I'm paraphrasing that)...
Well DUH! Why do you think?
Suspension of disbelief bitchez!
and last, unfortunately due to shit blogger I specifically described what EMH is, as in a text book def. and why your statements apply, it would not stay posted on the site for some reason though, but make no mistake, that's exactly what you are doing, making EMH statements, doesn't mean it will be wrong or good or bad I simply point it out and have my own opinions on it, you asked for opinions, gave them all in my post and blogger erased it, there is a lot of empirical evidence that shows that EMH cannot occur in financial markets but none of that matters because reality is fundamental arguments almost always make sense and therefore people never let them go.
"ben22 said it yesterday I believe... EWI calls over the past 18 months have been shit (I'm paraphrasing that)..."
They basically have, however, I shared this with a few people yesterday, draw your own conclusions:
Prechter quantified the trading results of the Theorist when they gave advice (its not a trading service, specific recs are rare) here they are:
recent issue they quantified their record over the last four years, here are the results:
Total positive points on maximum leverage for 2007-2009: +800. Closed.
Total negative points on maximum leverage for 2009-2011: -33. Closed.
Based on initial required margin for S&P futures contracts, the gain on 767 net S&P points is $38,350 for every $4500 allocated, a net gain of 750% over the past four years.
Wouldn't be fair/right for me not to point this out after saying that about them, they've been pretty lousy recently, time will tell if that's going to continue, their calls were better than ever before at a time when the Fed became extremely active in credit markets, again, draw your own conclusions.
@ben22
QE2 was said by the masses to drive yields lower, it did the reverse, the end of QE2 is said to drive them higher
For the record... CV NEVER said that QE2 would 'drive yields lower'... NOR am I saying that the end of QE2 will 'drive yields higher'...
Go ahead and research EVERY SINGLE SOLITARY comment on this blogs history to see if I've made those statements...
What have I suggested???
After Jackson Hole last year... I started yakking about 'nickles bitchez' & silver...
Silver TRIPLED (in dollars)...
I even gave a target $50 bucks... Paper silver hit within 15 cents of that... I NEVER said it was going to $100... $50 was my target (I'd said $50 before $21 - that was all)...
I also suggested that on the May 1 weekend (markets closed in Europe, open in USA, was a likely candidate for a reversal timeframe)... Check the charts to see how accurate I was on that...
Ritholtz??? I really don't frequent his Franklin, De Dude, Thor blog anymore, but the last I recall... Ritzy was talking about "TYPICAL RECOVERIES" and such things...
---
I'll get back to my farming now...
CV,
8:04,
wow, maybe calm down a bit as 3 years ago when you first ran into me at big picture was I or was I not the hardest deflationist there talking about why people NEEDED TO OWN PHYSICAL silver and gold, I'll dig up all those posts if you need me to.
Sorry bro, deflationists certainly know what REAL MONEY is as it's the entire thesis, but you're so busy telling me I'm wrong because I've also mentioned the importance of having dollars if there were runs on banks that you aren't even reading what I'm posting.
peace out folks.
@ben22
Ben... You have to try to understand that I'm NOT bashing Prechter here...
Jesus H Christ... I WISH, dudes like Prechter, Ron Paul, and even YOURSELF, or Rosie, Hugh Hendry, Chanos, or others had their hands on the POLICY WHEEL...
I'd throw myself 100% behind that movement...
But it's just not happening...
& so now I'm forced to use all the cleverness that I think I have to HEDGE two separate outcomes...
What's DAUNTING at the moment (at least, to ME) is that it appears that we be entering a period where the VOLATILITY between those potential separate outcomes will have increasing amplitude...
MEGAPHONES BITCHEZ!
CV,
That QE post was directed to Wunsacon and I'm talking about pundits on the television that made those calls on what QE2 would be, scores of money managers and economists said those things, same people making EMH comments.....the whole damn point of the post to him! Had exactly 0.0 to do with you.
Now.....back to the world revolving around you.
@ben22
deflationists certainly know what REAL MONEY is as it's the entire thesis, but you're so busy telling me I'm wrong because I've also mentioned the importance of having dollars if there were runs on banks that you aren't even reading what I'm posting.
If this is the case, then despite what arrears to be our bickering (on the surface)... We are, IN FACT, in 100% agreement...
CV also advocates holdings of PM's & cash...
I'll be honest though... Over the past two years, I've been much more inclined to convert CASH into physical goods as soon as possible...
Not just the perfunctory food, lumber, PM's, etc...
But just STUFF, that I envision will either be:
- too costly in an out of control inflationary environment
or
- NOT readily AVAILABLE in an out of control deflationary environment
@ben22
Now.....back to the world revolving around you
Ben - I want to make this clear... From my POV, I think these 'tete a tetes' between you and me are important...
Why? Simple... Because people READ them... And when that happens, arguments become crystallized & framed...
I'm quite sure that most of the people who read this blog are very intelligent... Having intelligence, however, doesn't guarantee that anyone will either have the time or motivation to articulate their own views (or even risk publishing them for all eyes to see)...
You & I don't seem to have that problem... Which is good...
I rarely get tired doing this (as a BLOG HOST - yes... As an individual with an opinion - no)... I hope you don't either...
don't take it personal, you're my boy CV, and like most people I know you annoy me from time to time, so I say stuff like that to you to jab you a little bit
you shouldn't mistake my comments on the dollar though as thinking it's all that people should be doing, it's just usually in the context of the dollar itself, and if there were a run on banks in six months or a year or even two years I'm still confident in telling you you'd want some dollars on hand for that, past that who the hell knows what could be going on with the dollar.
@AAIP
more on 'smell' tests...
Ex-teammate says Lance Armstrong injected EPO
http://sports.yahoo.com/sc/news;_ylt=AvKOuLuS9wCQBKRPQOkRKjA5nYcB?slug=ap-armstrong-doping
---
Some use charts, candles, oscillators, & waves... Others use their nose & intuition...
Call me 'Toucan Sam', I suppose...
@ben22
you shouldn't mistake my comments on the dollar though as thinking it's all that people should be doing, it's just usually in the context of the dollar itself, and if there were a run on banks in six months or a year or even two years I'm still confident in telling you you'd want some dollars on hand for that, past that who the hell knows what could be going on with the dollar
I 'don't' mistake your comments on the dollar...
I think I know EXACTLY where you're coming from (& frankly - I think the 'have some cash you can touch' mantra is extremely prudent & important)... To the degree that I do the same myself...
Between you & me... I just like to, as I said before, FRAME the argument... Just in case there are any casual newcomers to this blog who drop by and are wondering what the hell is going on...
Andy said it a couple of days ago (and I've published this in times past)...
There are an INCREDIBLE number of passer-by's on this blog that none of you even know about...
Until about a few weeks ago (when I relinquished my OWNER status of this blog back to ANDY T & AMEN RA)... CV was the only one privy to the numbers (because only the owner of the blog can see the numbers)... There are A LOT (who only read - & don't ever post)...
So part of me is still in that UNIVERSAL mode that it's not all about my own opinion, but it's how ONE VOICE needs to contrast in balance to the aggregate...
Basically - that's why I'm such a dick... :-)
& 'BEING A DICK'... is the entertainment part of the equation...
NOTHING is any good if it's not entertaining... Or, let's just say that if it's NOT entertaining, then despite its profundity, it will still only have a short shelf life...
Speaking of entertainment... I think I'd better get back to Dallas/OKC
TreasuryDirect.gov, bitchez! Buy the 4 month bills and they will be converted to C of I's in no time...while you wait for the correction in the 10yr to complete. Then buy it all.
Correction: 4 week bills.
CV, Ben, Andy, thanks for sharing your thoughts.
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