SPDRs % Change Since Jackson HoleIt seems like XLE, XRT and XLY have benefitted the most thanks to QE2. It's actual kind of ironic that XLF has the lowest change since that announcement. As you can see XLF, XHB and XLK didn't get the love that the top three did. Now will the top three lead the way down when QE2 ends?
Currency % Change from Jan 2007Even though there is a concerted effort to weaken the Yen it still has highest percentage change since Jan 2007. Of course the DXY is bringing up the rear (I wonder why?). The Yen, Swiss Franc and Aussie seem to be the place to go for safety.
48 comments:
Housing starts 523k (vs exp 570k)
Building permits 551k (vs exp 590k)
sort of a scary looking setup on the SP futures...the bulls have to really flex some muscles on the open.
Industrial Production 0.0% (vs exp 0.4%)
Capacity Utilization 76.9 (vs exp 77.6)
Not good.
"1.1 percent drop (in sales) at U.S. Wal-Mart stores open at least a year, the eighth in a row"
the recoveryless recovery for many americans
72bat
You know it's bad when Walmart has consecutive drops in sales.
Ra,
Whats your take on the 3lb of CAT.
That chart is starting to look real bearish to me, nearly all momentum indicators are showing big time negative divergence and there's a trendline on the log scale of CAT I've been using for months now that it has now closed below by more than 3%, now it's falling out of it's channel as well.
What do you think?
on XOM, that may take a trip down to the trendline I'm following around the 74-75 area but I'm thinking more constructive on this one.
"The Yen, Swiss Franc and Aussie seem to be the place to go for safety."
I don't agree with this. The AUD collapsed with risky assets in 2008/09. I think that the performance of the AUD is better explained by commodities.
ra -
yup. been meaning to visit my local walmart at midnight at the eom to check out the reported surge of shoppers whose welfare/snap debit cards get recharged at 12:01 a.m. on the fom.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXUnDyY1avs
DelDot just did the most moronic job down the street from my office, each day driving by it made me more and more pissed off, three people holding signs listening to iPods all day long while the traffic lights, which worked, were right where they were holding the signs, I could go on and on but clearly as can be seen in the video above, these people are on a power trip that nobody can stop.
If the sp500 starts to trade above 1335, it will begin to look like a mini- bear trap.
Matthew
I do agree that the AUD is related to commodities since that is their main industry.
ben22
CAT this week is trading below its weekly 3LB reversal price (105.86) and its monthly 3LB mid (106.21). Weakness has set in.
BTW the SPX is trading below the trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10) which is round 1330 today.
thanks Ra, thats one more confirmation for me
Matthew
All currencies took a hit from 10/08-4/09 and the Aussie got hit the hardest. But the Aussie has done better than most currencies since 4/09.
re: trend line
The SPX did trade below it from 8/24/10 to 9/1/10 and a head fake on 3/16/11. But that's it. Now it's time to see if it can recover and close above it. Either that or it's time to run for the hills.
...18's
1332
1314 (target, possible reversal here or just below)
...1305 (18.5)
1296 (heavy support)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffetts-silly-talk-about-the-us-debt-2011-05-17
Buffett’s silly talk about the U.S. debt
By Barry Wood
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — At Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting in Omaha, Chairman Warren Buffett raised more than a few eyebrows when he said that, “The United States is not going to have a debt crisis as long as we keep issuing our debts in our own currency. The only thing we have to worry about is the printing press and inflation.”
Was the oracle /quotes/comstock/13*!brk.a/quotes/nls/brk.a BRK.A -0.46% really suggesting that there is no chance that the U.S. will ever experience a Greek-style debt meltdown where it couldn’t get financed and would have to turn to outsiders like the International Monetary Fund for help? Apparently, he was.
Harvard University historian Niall Ferguson, who has written extensively on debt, is aghast at what he calls Buffett’s highly simplistic view. “Buffett,” he says, “must know this is nonsense.” Ferguson continues, “Britain had complete monetary sovereignty in the mid-1970s and yet the IMF had to be called in. I could give numerous other examples. And then there is the inflation risk, which is implicit in his statement. We won’t have a debt crisis because we can print unlimited quantities of paper dollars. If that’s the good news, I don’t want to hear the bad.”
Horses were just heard coming down Wall Street...
SMA(55) at 1322.81 check!
38.2% retrace at 1324.16 check!
Lower trend line at 1330 check!
Weekly 3LB mid at 1321.41 check!
SMA(89) at 1316.23 not yet but coming...
Ben...
Abuse of power comes as no surprise. Jenny Holzer.
It would also come as no surprise if CV were seen in this t-shirt...
http://www.tate.org.uk/servlet/ViewWork?workid=19052&tabview=text
Mel,
No doubt, interesting case going on in Philly right now about a guy harrassed by the coppers, apparently this guy walks around with a recorder on his body at all times and just so happened to catch the whole thing on tape.
@Mel.
I like the T-Shirt idea....
This market not really falling as fast I would have imagined on the 1229 break. I like using 1335 as a stop on shorts right now....
AT,
I'm with you (12:30) just not voilent enough, was much sharper in March, gives a lot of validity to your X wave though, but 1250 is a really tall order for bears it seems.
@Mel
My T-Shirt would have something more simple (& practical)... Something in the order of...
"Will BLOG for FOOD"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43046103
Here's Why Nobody Will Break Out of the Euro
...absolutely positively completely wrong. But when Greece and Portugal and maybe others do leave this writer won't be held to task..
http://reason.com/archives/2011/05/17/obamas-war-on-fun
Love the Nanny State.
ben22
Wave-wise, what would be the downside target for CAT?
Ah-Nold....
Nailing the help....
http://www.tmz.com/2011/05/10/arnold-schwarzenegger-maria-shriver-baby-out-of-wedlock-member-household-staffseparated-long-time-moved-out-of-brentwood-house-kids-ex-governor/
http://www.seattlepi.com/business/article/Senate-looks-at-ways-to-help-post-office-1383146.php
Post Office on track to Lose 8BN this year....awesome. I'm sure the Senate will figure this out.
Talk about your business sectors that are in decline....
That gov't monopoly needs to get blown up....
Watch out for employees going "postal" in the near future...
@Anon (2:21)
Hard to get good help these days...
@Andy T (2:28)
It was profitable back in the pony express days...
See what happens when you get a bunch of IT specialists in there mucking up the springwerks...
Did someone mention QE3 because the market is doing all it can to close higher.
Seriously, in re: the Post Office....it's pretty simple to envision a 10 year future where their mail volumes are down another 50%.
The beauty of it though is they've guaranteed a bunch of pensions and health care to retirees on a business that's going down the tubes.
The beauty of it though is they've guaranteed a bunch of pensions and health care to retirees on a business that's going down the tubes.
All so I can receive my 10 pounds weekly of catalogues on the latest cruise ship vacations & women's bras & panties...
Ra,
I never tried to apply a wave count to CAT, I've made more money on it long and short than any other paper I've traded and all I've ever used were basic trendlines, MA crossovers and a handful of studies to confirm the price action, rate of change works really well with CAT in my experience coupled with Wilder RSI and on balance volume. My main hang up with trying to apply a proper wave count is the pricing of the stock very early in its history as there was likely a "first wave" in that sector prior to CAT being publicly traded, so I can't figure out the proper degrees of trend. One thing to note though that is somewhat wave like are the three primary trends up in the stock since inception, they all have an increasingly steeper slope and this third one that started at the 09 lows is the steepest of them all by far meaning it could be in some sort of fifth wave.
Anyway, generally if it can't hold the 90's just big picture the mid $70's would be a larger downside target around the April 2010 top with a handful of secondary stops on the way that should act as some sort of support.
What Louise Yamada Sees for Oil, Silver & Gold
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/louise-yamada-sees-oil-silver-gold-175241513.html?sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode
I'd say I concur with LY... The same 'consolidation' is what was illustrated on the chart that I linked up here lastast week...
Yamada:
"The U.S. dollar: Sorry, patriots, the dollar is still just a piece of paper, wafting depressingly earthward against other currencies. The break higher I've noted repeatedly broke an absurdly sharp downtrend from 0.83 euros per buck last June to the April 29th low of 0.67, but it doesn't have legs. With 0.71 euros buying a buck today, Yamada says we could see a move about 10% higher to the 0.77 or 0.78 area. Beyond that, she says, we've got "major resistance at 0.80." That works out to just under $1.30 per euro, for those of you trying to time a trip abroad."
Exactly what CV said yesterday...
GLIDEPATH BITCHEZ!
While we wait to cue up QE3...
I expect to have this same conversation many times between now & QE18
Why do I get the feeling that there are quite a few "sell on close" orders waiting in the wings if the SPX closes under that trend line?
Given Silver and Gold's 5,000 + year history, I suppose one could argue that it was in a 'simple correction' from 83-2000 or as she calls it "a 30 year base"
maybe something to keep in mind, but just screaming only a correction leaves me a little hungry for more analysis given the fact that she was all over the tv in early march and was stating, among other things:
bearish bonds, which has been near term wrong
bearish dollar, which was near term wrong
bullish metals and EM's, which were both near term wrong
bullish tech, while the naz has been the worst of the big three since then
I might throw out the long term calls of EWI since she seems to be promoting "long term bull markets" like that we have just been in a corrective countertrend rally since 2009 but something tells me that might be met with some ridicule of their pathetic short term performance and the fact that the countertrend rally has been over 100%, sort of like how a "30 year base" can get you a 90% loss.
Also, I see in the article the popular fundamental argument against the dollar "it's just paper"
Compelling I suppose....
whereas, you know, getting all philosphical like, we are still floating on on this giant rock in the middle of this vast expanding universe where we decided some shiny metal that there wasn't a lot of on the rock was more 'money' than paper with numbers on it.
Whatever though, just some brain excersize here, she notes where resistance is on the dollar and I can't disagree, of course, resistance sometimes becomes support, so time will tell.
And CV,
I wasn't directing that at your post, was typing it up when you made yours, that was about Yamada, and her 100% wrong calls from March.
Technicians need to be a little more precise on time frame if what they say is going to be actionable....I know you'd have agree with that.
If I'm short the S&P500 right now, I'm not McLovin' today's price action.
Today was McBoring.
AT,
Agreed, bullish stocks and bearish bonds next few days at least, there was no follow through at all after your support broke this morning and two straight days now SPY does better than $spx, so this selling is not broad based.
If anyone needs a laugh, I got one from this:
http://kiddynamitesworld.com/what-was-in-bin-ladens-porn-collection/
My personal fav was:
The Infidel in Ms. Jones (very bottom of thread)
new thread up
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